Volcanic Ash – Crying Wolf Again or Real Threat?

by craig on April 19, 2010 4:02 pm in Other

There is a danger that the stage has been reached when we automatically disbelieve the government when it warns of a great danger. I believe, for example, that climate change is a great danger. Quite a lot of my friends, however, are dubious partly because the government is pushing it.

Consider the really major government scares of the last few years – things which were supposed to result in the death of millions – which proved to be nothing like the threat alleged. SARS, avian flu and swine flu all come instantly to mind. And what about the most ramped threat of all, the War of Terror, said by Tony Blair to be an “existential threat” and by John Reid to be a threat “On the scale of World War 2″.

There is an absolutely clear history of governmental over-exaggeration of threat, but also that governments have no difficulty in finding backing for this fear-mongering from government scientists and both techincal and inter-governmental international bodies. There are always virologists, vulcanologists and security experts willing to go on TV and tell us we are all doomed (oh, and can they get a bigger research grant to combat the threat).

So when the government promotes a big threat, I am conditioned to scepticism, even before British Airways flew a jumbo jet around for hours yesterday with the Chief Exec on board (after similar incident free test flights by other European airlines).

It turns out that the repeatedly quoted occasion when a BA flight lost power in all four engines due to volcanic dust, was a case of flying right through the plume close to the volcano in Indonesia. When you think about it, the fact that you can do something as extreme as that and nobody be hurt, is comforting rather than worrying.

As for widely dispersed ash, I have been wondering how Indonesia and Hawaii and Sicily ever manage flights. Why was there not a massive whole continent air lockdown after the vastly greater ash flown out by Mount St Helens?

As a society we have become risk averse to an unrealistic degree. We seem to spend our lives in a permanent state of cringe. Perhaps the ash really is too dangerous: but I see no reason to automatically believe the government on the subject.

103 Comments

  1. alan campbell

    19 Apr, 2010 - 4:08 pm

    Absolutely right. Scared to death. The “health and safety/paedophiles on every street corner” mentality has won.

  2. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 4:20 pm

    To be fair Craig, it’s not your regular volcanic ash. This is different because the eruption has happened beneath a glacier, causing the ash to contain tiny particles of glass, which is the real problem for jet engines.

    Overall however yes, the whole thing has I’m sure been hugely over-hyped. They like to keep us scared of something or other.

  3. Ed

    19 Apr, 2010 - 4:20 pm

    In this instance, I really have to give the government a pass.

    Firstly, it’s not them, but the air traffic control people who have instructed flights to be grounded. I don’t see where politics entered the equation.

    Secondly, the problem is not specifically that volcanic dust is dangerous – it is that airlines are not equipped to detect when they are flying into the dust. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that small concentrations of the dust is dangerous, it’s that pilots have no way of knowing when they could be approaching areas where there is significantly more dust in the atmosphere.

    At best, you can argue that people have not been creative enough in thinking around this problem, probably because they were hoping that the dust would dissipate soon enough. Whether this was reasonable or not is another matter, but you can understand given the uncertainty why they’d take this approach.

    I quite agree that there are times when as a society we are far too risk averse, but on this one, the cautious approach is pretty understandable. When we fly, we put our safety directly in the hands of numerous individuals whose prime objective is to ensure we arrive safely – and with this situation, it is pretty unclear that they can properly carry out their jobs. In this case, I have no problem for scientists to be given ample time to figure out when it is safe for planes to start flying again. And I would rather it be them than Airline CEOs and politicians making the call.

  4. Ed Davies

    19 Apr, 2010 - 4:29 pm

    These recent blog posts by a professional meteorologist and amateur (glider) pilot might be of interest:

    http://glidemet.co.uk/

    In particular, he links to this article about damage to Finnish air force jets:

    http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/16/340727/pictures-finnish-f-18-engine-check-reveals-effects-of-volcanic.html

  5. glenn

    19 Apr, 2010 - 4:31 pm

    Agreed – there is no reason to automatically believe the government, but no reason to automatically disbelieve them either. What is certain is that they usually want to make political capital out of it, whatever the situation, and that increases cynicism. Tax policies such as increasing duty on fuel as a “green tax” is particularly underhand, when we know full well this is punishing motorists who have virtually no other choice. The cost of public transport has gone up hugely at the same time. The “green tax” revenue is not being put into public transport.

    The government will want to amplify a scare because they believe it’s (a) the only way to get people to pay attention, and (b) bolster their role as a big, strong protecting Daddy-figure.

    But the government quite rightly fears a huge backlash from the hate-Mail and other shrill tabloids if the slightest thing goes wrong, anyone is hurt or inconvenienced, and the gov’t did not anticipate and prevent the problem. So they really can’t win – it’s all scare-mongering and a waste of money if a problem is avoided, and hysterics from the “won’t-anyone-think-about-the-children” crowd should anything happen. Blair and “new” Labour’s lies about Iraq are a separate subject altogether, of course.

    But your last point is particularly important – our notion that everything is to be utterly “safe”, that no slightest harm or injury should ever happen to anyone ever, is preposterous. Taking risk is part of life, and we’re all going to die eventually anyway. The notion that something abominable, tragic and totally avoidable has occurred if anyone fails to die of advanced old age is infantilising our population. It’s particularly ludicrous when we consider the death and crippling injuries we accept as commonplace on the roads, with incompetent, stupid and careless drivers regarded as no more than a nuisance.

  6. amk

    19 Apr, 2010 - 5:29 pm

    “There is a danger that the stage has been reached when we automatically disbelieve the government when it warns of a great danger.”

    The reverse is true too. When the government rightly said there was no link between the MMR vaccine and autism many refused to believe it.

  7. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 5:37 pm

    “When the government rightly said there was no link between the MMR vaccine and autism many refused to believe it”.

    I beg to differ. Since the introduction of the vaccine the incidence of autism in the US has leapt from around 1/1000 to 1/100. The only exception to this is among the Amish community, which refuses all vaccines. Their rate of autism remains at 1/1000 or thereabouts.

  8. arsalan

    19 Apr, 2010 - 5:50 pm

    I’ve just been invited to a question and answer event with Jack Straw and two other bastards from the two other parties in it.

    Do any of you have any suggestions of questions that I should ask him, just encase I get picked when I put my hand up at the end?

  9. Justin

    19 Apr, 2010 - 5:50 pm

    Sure, governments over-hype threats. But they only do so when there is something to gain from it. Exaggerating the threat of terrorism is very popular with the xenophobic electorate, and popularity is an end in itself for a politician. Foreign wars can do wonders for an approval rating. Exaggerating the threat of diseases SARS and bird flu allows politicians to look all statesman like on TV. Plus, they can take all the credit when the world doesn’t end!

    The reason I trust in climate change (apart from a healthy respect for scientists) is that it is in no politicians’ interest to actually do anything about climate change. It’s in their interest to do nothing, which is largely what has happened. What kind of idiot would cook up a story like climate change, and then do almost nothing about it? ‘We’re all going to die, and in the meantime, here’s a hike in your power bill’ is not an ideal election pitch. Never trust a politician- but trust his instinct for self-preservation.

    So, ask yourself, who would gain by exaggerating the threat of volcanic ash? I can’t see any benefit in it for the government or the airlines, and there are plenty of downsides. This leads me to believe that the threat is real.

  10. arsalan

    19 Apr, 2010 - 5:56 pm

    Craig if you want to meet your old boss, I’ll give you my ticket, as long as you swear at him.

  11. Justin

    19 Apr, 2010 - 6:15 pm

    MJ, I’m sorry to be blunt but you are talking out of your arse. The claim that the Amish ‘refuse all vaccines’ is completely false. I’m also pretty sure your statistics are made up, although you’re welcome to prove me wrong by sourcing them. There does appear to be a slightly lower rate of autism in Amish communities, but at least some of this can be accounted for by differing rates of diagnosis. If there is a statistical difference beyond this, there is no evidence to support a link to vaccination. In your extensive studies on the subject, how have you controlled for differences in genetic and lifestyle factors?

    I found all this it in about 5 minutes with the aid of google and a critical mind. It’s really not too difficult.

  12. Craig

    19 Apr, 2010 - 6:43 pm

    Justin,

    I don’t thnk the government’s motives for threat hype are always base. It is just excessive nannying in some cases.

  13. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 6:52 pm

    Justin: The search terms “Autism Amish Anomaly” will give you a full range of opinion on the matter. Make your own mind up. Note I did not claim that there is no autism among the Amish, only that it has not increased in the way that it has among the MMR-vaccinated generation.

  14. Vronsky

    19 Apr, 2010 - 6:56 pm

    “When the government rightly said there was no link between the MMR vaccine and autism many refused to believe it.”

    I’m not sure that this is established. See here:

    http://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com/2010/02/measles-vaccine-can-cause.html

  15. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:05 pm

    “I beg to differ. Since the introduction of the vaccine the incidence of autism in the US has leapt from around 1/1000 to 1/100.”

    Correlation does not imply causation.

    It also ignores the fact that as more is learned about Autistic Spectrum Disorder more accurate diagnosis is able to take place. Note that Aspergers Syndrome also falls under this umbrella which does account for a great deal of the increase in numbers – Aspergers is an extremely mild form of the disorder – even 5 years ago people afflicted would have simply have been chalked up as simply being a bit challenging.

    If the MMR had any link to Autism, we would have seen a drop in detection rates with the amount of people being given the mercury free doses as well as single part vaccines. There hasn’t been.

  16. Craig

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:07 pm

    For the record, I am not against the MMR vaccine.

  17. glenn

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:09 pm

    Not wishing to see this thread turned into a MMR debate, but why on earth didn’t the gov’t allow people to have the three inoculations separately, with a week or so between each? This would have satisfied those concerned about MMR on the whole, and avoided all the problems (heavily emphasised officially) about herd immunity and so on.

    The only explanation I heard was that parents might forget or not bother getting the second or third injection. Surely that’s ludicrous, if they were sufficiently concerned at their child’s health to be cautious about MMR in the first place.

    That MMR might overload an immune system in one blast in _some cases_ does not that seem silly to me.

  18. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:09 pm

    Craig I for one would like to see what the state of the insides of that aircrafts engines were like post flying through the dust for a prolonged period.

    If nothing else the data accumulated would help everyone to work out more accurate safety guidelines as to how much and more specifically what types of ash cause damage to aircraft engines.

    I wouldn’t be surprised though if, as with aircraft operating in desert environments have found, there was an increased degree of wear and tear as a result of flying through the stuff for prolonged periods in lower concentrations.

  19. Larry from St. Louis

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:22 pm

    Yep, from Glenn and MJ and others, the same bullshit autism arguments from the likes of Jenny McCarthy and some doctors of ill repute.

    Why does Andrew Wakefield have to be such a con artist?

    Once again, complete parallel between the British nutjob left and the American nutjob right. You people are reading and listening to the same crazy sources.

  20. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:23 pm

    “Correlation does not imply causation”.

    Indeed, but the enormous increase in incidents of autism is too great to be a mere statistical blip. Any views on the real cause?

  21. Jives

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:29 pm

    “We are turning into a nation of whimpering slaves to Fear fear of war, fear of poverty, fear of random terrorism, fear of getting down-sized or fired because of the plunging economy, fear of getting evicted for bad debts or suddenly getting locked up in a military detention camp on vague charges of being a Terrorist sympathizer.”

    Hunter S Thompson.

    Indeed.He was,of course,referring to USA but it’s the same here now.

  22. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:34 pm

    @MJ

    The incidence of kids being diagnosed as Aspergers.

    Like I said, that is an extremely mild form of Autism and so is lumped in as “Autistic” which imho is wrong (the person who discovered it stated that it was at the extreme limits of normal behaviour).

    It also doesn’t help that many kids whose parents are effectively empty uniforms actively push to get such a diagnosis when they utterly refuse to instil discipline into unruly children. Getting such a diagnosis means they don’t have to look at their own failures – all part of the blame culture, something which I would bet good money on doesn’t exist within Amish communities.

  23. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:36 pm

    Ah! He’s back! Larry returns with a Vaudeville fanfare and and the scent of arsenic…

    Are you on the bus, Larry?

    Btw, unusually, I disagree with MJ on this one – I’m not talking about the volcano, but about the MMR issue, which I knew would be brought-up in the ‘volcano’ context. If Dreoilin were still around on this cyber-planetoid, she would no doubt descend upon me like a thunderbolt’d arrow from the biceps of Artemis.

    Because of the unfounded panic generated extremely irresponsibly around the MMR vaccine, over the past 5 years or so, we have faced a reduction in the herd immunity and consequently an outbreak of mumps in late teens early twenty year-olds, with implications (among others) for fertility in some of the males.

    We’ve also seen a few deaths of children due to measles again – something that was a thing of the past.

    Rubella is extremely dangerous for unborn babies.

    The MMR vaccine has nothing to do with autism and delivering single vaccines to kids renders poorer immunity against all three viruses.

  24. Anonymous

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:42 pm

    “Are you on the bus, Larry?”

    What does that mean?

  25. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:44 pm

    the_leander: Aspergers may be ‘mild’ compared with other forms of autism but from my experience – and I do have first-hand experience of the syndrome – to describe it as the ‘extreme limits of normal behaviour’ is absurd.

    Is that your response to my question about the cause of the increase in autism; that it is simply parents pushing to get such a diagnosis? Do you know anyone with Aspergers?

  26. glenn

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:46 pm

    Reading new comments, I thought, “Who’s this stupid, lying sack of sh…” but was cut off mid-thought. Of course, Lame old Larry, who else? Caught on the hop, I accidentally read some of his post. Seems to be on-target for his 100% record of lying and misrepresenting as required for a tea-bagger repug, unless the sorry SOAB has contributed something useful at some point?

  27. Larry from St. Louis

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:47 pm

    MJ, you really seem like someone who’s never read a response by professionals to your very stupid positions.

    “Do you know anyone with Aspergers?”

    Why would that matter either way? Perhaps your friend does not know anyone with brain cancer, but that doesn’t affect brain cancer incidence.

  28. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 7:51 pm

    “Why would that matter either way?”

    Because it would give you a personal and direct insight into whether the proposition that the syndrome is simply at the ‘extreme limits of normal behaviour’ is a meaningful and accurate one.

  29. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:07 pm

    “to describe it as the ‘extreme limits of normal behaviour’ is absurd.”

    Tell that to the person who discovered it old bean. I’d wager he knows a damn sight more about the subject than you do – he was the person who described it as such.

    “Do you know anyone with Aspergers?”

    I used to work with kids who have full blown Autism (think Rain Man, but without the brilliance, which is as rare as it is in the rest of the population). And I’ve met a great many people who claim to have Aspergers and use it as a justification for poor behaviour.

    Aspergers might be lumped in with Autism, but the two are not the same.

    The explosion in “Autistic” diagnosis recently is largely down to Aspergers.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperger_syndrome#Diagnosis

  30. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:12 pm

    Who’s asking about the bus…? Larry knows what it means. Don’t you, Larry? Are you on the bus?

  31. Tom Welsh

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:23 pm

    “It turns out that the repeatedly quoted occasion when a BA flight lost power in all four engines due to volcanic dust, was a case of flying right through the plume close to the volcano in Indonesia”.

    Well, within 150 km anyway – if that is close. Please note that:

    1. The ash cloud from Mount Galunggung persisted for at least 3 months, after which the local authorities closed all the surrounding airspace indefinitely.

    2. The ash was more or less invisible.

    3. BA9 dropped 37,000 feet from its unusually high cruising altitude of 49,000 feet. Most of the intercontinental flights I have been on flew at 35,000 feet. Go figure, as the Americans say.

    Have you read about the Finnish Air Force F-16s that were so badly damaged by the volcanic ash that they were more or less disassembled, and all their motors had to be replaced? Guess what – the Finnish Air Force does not fly in the near vicinity of Iceland.

    When it comes to the propulsion and control systems of large commercial airliners, there is very little middle ground. Consider Air France flight 447, the Airbus 330 that crashed into the South Atlantic. All that really happened was that its pitot heads froze up – but it was utterly destroyed and, of course, everyone on board died. The saying about submarines also applies, in great measure, to aircraft: “there is no such thing as a small accident”. When it comes to the possibility of hundreds of violent deaths, the authorities are quite right to proceed carefully.

    Many of us have a weird sense of entitlement, proceeding no doubt from the great comfort and ease of our existence so far. Don’t forget that, in general, this is a violent and unpredictable universe in which death can come suddenly from many directions. It is deceptively easy to step outside the bubble of safety in which most of us spend our lives.

  32. Larry from St. Louis

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:24 pm

    Suhayl Saadi, compared to other commenters at this blog, you don’t seem like such a horrible person, so I don’t understand why you have to keep annoying me by asking me if I’m on the bus.

    I have in fact taken a few buses lately, and it hasn’t been all that fun.

  33. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:28 pm

    the_leander. To clarify: is it your proposition that there has been no real increase in autism and parents are just making it up, or that there has been a real increase in the incidence of autism, but only in a mild form, ie Aspergers?

    Secondly, you speak of having met people who claim to have Aspergers but have these been adults, or children from the MMR era, ie 5-10 years old?

  34. Tom Welsh

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:39 pm

    OK, before everyone jumps on my head, they were F-18s. I find “Hornet” a lot easier to remember than the numbers…

  35. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 8:59 pm

    “To clarify: is it your proposition that there has been no real increase in autism and parents are just making it up, or that there has been a real increase in the incidence of autism, but only in a mild form, ie Aspergers?”

    Sure, I’ll clarify for you: In some parts of the world (see the cited incidence of Silicon Valley in the wiki article) there has been an explosion in the number of diagnosis. Anyone diagnosed as “Aspergers” is lumped in with the Autistic. Hence a huge rise in some places for the numbers of Autism (which is also being picked up more as diagnostic tools improve).

    In areas where single vaccines are available there has been no statistical change in these numbers. Likewise with the introduction of mercury free vaccines there has been no drop.

    I’ve seen empty uniform parents who had no business bringing kids into the world push and push medical services for diagnosis of Aspergers for kids who have never had an ounce of discipline thrown their way in their lives first hand. Yet these same kids, when placed into a disciplined and rules based environment actively flourish. For some, it is easier and even trendy to get such a diagnosis – drugging your kid upto the eyeballs is easier then doing the job of being a parent.

    “Secondly, you speak of having met people who claim to have Aspergers but have these been adults, or children from the MMR era, ie 5-10 years old?”

    All of the above. And the MMR has been available since 1971 in the US and 1988 in the UK “MMR era” as all children in school were vaccinated automatically, and the vaccine was also given to adults as a matter of course.

    http://bit.ly/9gcdLz

  36. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:00 pm

    @Tom Welsh

    I wasn’t going to say anything. Though if they had been Falcons, the risks for the pilots would have been much greater as they only have the one engine.

  37. fluellen

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:02 pm

    I’m on the bus :-)

  38. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:02 pm

    From sikipedia:

    “Life is starting to return to normal for the people in Norfolk for the first time in nearly a century now that regular sightings of “the big scary metal dragons in the sky” have suddenly stopped.”

    /gets coat

  39. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:22 pm

    Larry, thanks. Sorry to annoy you!

    D’you remember that I asked you on another thread to imagine that you were sitting on a long-distance bus with the rain falling outside and no in-cabin entertainment? And to imagine yourself beginning to converse with the guy – me – sitting across the aisle? To forget politics for a moment and simply to talk about… whatever. Music, art, the sky, space, cars, flowers, wrestlers, boxing, the Dust Bowl Ballads, the Oort Cloud, the Etruscan language…

    You don’t have to be one of Ken Kesey’s Merry Pranksters to ride on the bus. Not do you have to have a penchant for Kool-Aid.

    This was because I think that perhaps some of the hostility you perhaps feel you face on this blog may be to do at least in part with the perception some of the others may have that you either are an individual with possibly ‘neocon’ views who pops in simply to provoke and disrupt or that (to be frank) that ‘you’ are actually a number of individuals hired for the purpose.

    Now, both of these views may well be completely wrong and off-the-wall, but right now, I suspect many of the other bloggers (though who am I to speak thus?!) you are somewhat of a disembodied voice ?” no-one can perceive the person behind the voice. This is not the case for many of the other regular ?” or sporadic ?” bloggers, whether of the Left, Right, Centre or Religious persuasions.

    I often disagree with your posted views and sometimes I agree with them. But on various matters I also at times have disagreed with nearly everyone else who blogs here and they, with me.

    So I think that maybe if you were to spare a little time just talking about yourself it might help to make the dynamics of your posts and the responses to those posts, a little less… monochrome, shall we say.

    Perhaps you can’t be bothered and time is precious, I know. That’s fine. Perhaps I sound very pompous – it’s a just a blog, for Pete’s sake!

    So please just view this as a friendly suggestion which you can take or leave as you wish.

    Whether on or off the bus, or simply thumbing a lift (as people used to do), I wish you well.

  40. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:23 pm

    Fluellen, I know you’re on the bus! Yeah! Ride that see-saw!

  41. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:33 pm

    “By your definition they sound more like cases of traditional autism, yet Aspergers is the diagnosis.”

    It’s not my definition of anything. It is the definition set out by the person who discovered it: Dr Hans Aspergers, who coincidentally showed a good few of the symptoms he described as being indicators for Aspergers Syndrome.

    I am well aware of what Aspergers is, and its crossover with HFA. Having had to work with full blown Autistics (both HFA and more extreme variants) knowing about such things is a must.

    The vast majority of people I have come across stating that they are Aspergers sufferers are self diagnosed, of the parents I saw push for that diagnosis – their kid was eventually taken into care and by all accounts has grown up into a perfectly normal adult – Like I said, for some, Aspergers is a great excuse to avoid actually being a parent.

  42. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:49 pm

    “The vast majority of people I have come across stating that they are Aspergers sufferers are self diagnosed”

    We can safely eliminate them from the discssion then. They do not form part of the huge increase in autism, which is confined to properly diagnosed cases.

  43. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 9:54 pm

    Arsalan: Why don’t you ask Jack Straw about the death of Dr David Kelly and why Hutton has restricted certain aspects for 75 years. You won’t get any real answers, of course, except more waffling tosh about so many ‘Inquiries’ and it being a matter for Lord Hutton and guff about sensitivity for the family.

    He’s not going to say,

    “Uhm, Mr Goldberg, it’s because the SIS sub-contracted the matter for executive action, what is commonly known in the trade as ‘a wet job’. And we as a government cannot let even an inkling of this get out. Thank you. Next…”

    The answer is not what you’d be raising it for. You’d be raising in order to remind people that many in this country suspect that the Secret State organises the assassination of whistleblowers who get too close to its dark and foetid heart.

    You’d also be reminding people that the Iraq Destruction at its root was driven by death on the inside as well as on the outside, in both the metaphorical and literal senses.

    My advice would be to keep your question short, uni-directional and clear, crisp and cold. Remember Thatcher squirming like a spider on TV under the ‘Belgrano’ questioning of that excellent, invisible woman from the public? That was moment to savour and it’s all we had for upwards of a decade.

    “Mr Straw, as Justice Secretary can you tell the audience exactly why Lord Hutton decided to keep details of his Inquiry into the death of the microbiologist, Dr David Kelly, secret for 75 years? What could be so very sensitive that the people of this country are not allowed to see it?”

    Just a suggestion, Arsalan.

  44. MJ

    19 Apr, 2010 - 10:02 pm

    How about this:

    A few weeks ago the fashion designer Alexander McQueen was tragically found hanged in his home. It was the day before his mother’s funeral and he had left a suicide note. It is perhaps difficult to imagine a clearer case of suicide, but nevertheless a formal inquest into his death was held.

    In 2003 Dr David Kelly was found dead in far less clear cirmstances than this, yet no formal inquest was held to determine the cause of death. Why not?

  45. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 10:14 pm

    Absolutely. Of course, whatever is asked, he’ll just say,

    “I cannot comment on individual cases. But as a general principle, I would like to take this opportunity to assure everyone that as a Government we are committed to openness and dialogue, to full and frank discussion and consultation. That is why I am here today. And this is why we will win the election. Next…”

    Perhaps a bit of civil disobedience – old-fashioned heckling a la Mr eighty-four year pensioner at Labour Party Conference arrested under the Prevention of Terrorism Act or whatever it’s called now.

    Or just slap the bastard with a very cold, very hard, very large fish. Monty Python, Morris Dancing-style.

  46. Mark Golding - Children of Iraq

    19 Apr, 2010 - 10:16 pm

    “Terror is the best political weapon for nothing drives people harder than a fear of sudden death”

    Adolf Hitler

    Fear is a powerful emotion and the primitive response to fear is fight or flight. A dog will bark from the scent of human fear. The fear of a terror attack is thus a powerful tool to obfuscate the balance of human rights and security such that they become contradictory and mutually exclusive.

    It is assumed that radicalisation from torture, rendition, illegal detention and the massacre of innocent civilians feed an over-whelming desire for revenge that leads to a terror attack.

    This argument and the analysis of radical activism by governments is purposely deeply flawed in that proper psychological studies show that atrocities cause dissent and non-violent condemnation and in the final analysis are self-destructing producing radical change.

    The radical discourse of using fear as a means of controlling and restricting thought, teaching and research must be vehemently opposed; over-egging fear should be destroyed at inception, and is, in our own stable, mellow and untroubled British society.

    (Thank-you mother for your MANY interesting accounts of being an ARP warden at Crystal Palace and how you overcame the fear of ‘doodlebugs’ and V2 rockets.)

  47. Suhayl Saadi

    19 Apr, 2010 - 10:27 pm

  48. Mark Golding - Children of Iraq

    19 Apr, 2010 - 10:45 pm

    Nice one! Suhayl – I have to overcome the fear of being physically sick looking at any image of Blair – but he is obviously grinding his teeth in frustration at the thought of being unable to deliver his masters instructions on the campaign trail!

  49. the_leander

    19 Apr, 2010 - 10:46 pm

    “We can safely eliminate them from the discssion then. They do not form part of the huge increase in autism, which is confined to properly diagnosed cases.”

    Depends. I’ve seen some pretty ropey Anti Vaxxer numbers. Then again, the Anti-Vaxxers are little more then an offshoot of the regular David Ike lot with added soccer moms.

  50. Stephen Jones

    19 Apr, 2010 - 11:42 pm

    The 1982 flight was well away from the volcano. The point is that the ash gets carried by wind.

  51. Craig

    20 Apr, 2010 - 12:19 am

    Stephen

    I have no reason to disbelieve either you or Tom. I heard the assertion that the 1982 flight was close to the volcano twice on Sky News, once from an interviewee and once from a newscaster (some 48 hours apart). Nobody contradicted it so I went with it – silly me for believing the Murdoch media.

    Mind yo 150km ffrom the volcano wouldn’t reach British airspace. Of course I understand it gets carried by wind, but in doing so it disperses.

  52. glenn

    20 Apr, 2010 - 12:38 am

    Suhayl Saadi: You misunderstand the relationship that teabaggers like Larry have with normal people here. Different opinions are fine, and I’ve disagreed with probably everyone here at times, and have said so, and them to me. That’s not the problem.

    The problem is that a teabagger like Larry wants to attack, attack, attack with slogans and force-fed assumptions, lie and misrepresent, with the central tactic being the logical fallacy and outright falsehood of guilt by association. Hence the continual references to “loons”, conspiracy theorists and anti-semitism, desperately hoping to drag all that baggage onto anyone who _isn’t_ a teabagging hard-right neo-con fascist freak such as Larry himself.

    Of course, these teabaggers would like nothing better than to denounce a lack of Christianity, but at least this one is wise enough to know that load of religious hogwash isn’t going to fly in any sane country. So the best that teabaggers are left with are shrill denunciations and lies, hoping some of it will stick.

    If you want a particular example, notice how the teabagger Larry hangs himself just today with his lies:

    —start quote

    Yep, from Glenn and MJ and others, the same bullshit autism arguments from the likes of Jenny McCarthy and some doctors of ill repute.

    —end quote

    And so on. I’ve not said for a moment that I subscribe to such views, but rather suggested how the government could get around the problems of those that do. What does our teabagger do? Lies. Pretends that I personally subscribe to people I’ve never even mentioned, quoted, or had any common ground with on this subject, and hopes to associate an assumed guilt. (The assumption that these people he mentions (who I’ve not heard of half the time) are guilty bang to rights, of course, is another underhand lie/slur/tactic of teabaggers.)

    Suhayl Saadi, you cannot treat these lying zealots like ordinary people. They lie all the time, think that there’s nothing at all wrong with doing so, and only serve to disrupt a perceived opposition. You’ll get nothing out of Larry, or any other teabagger. They are incapable of being rational, truthful or genuine.

  53. edwin

    20 Apr, 2010 - 12:58 am

    there are three different things that are being lumped together here:

    The nanny state, war on terror, and natural disasters.

    Each is different, and represents different functions of the government.

    The war on terror seems to be to control people through having them live in fear. That doesn’t fit with the volcanic ash. Its inconvenient, but not terrifying.

    The nanny state is an attempt by the government to be responsive to people who continually complain/sue about anything and everything – demanding that maximum safety be the government’s by-word.

    It seems to me that only partially fits here. Rather it looks like there is a potential for serious harm with a lot of unknowns. In such circumstances, prudence demands caution.

    In Canada we had somewhat similar situation with scientists crying out that we were headed for disaster, while there was enormous pressure to ignore scientists in favour of commercial interests. There were a huge number of arguments on why the scientists were wrong. That was over the cod fishery. The end result was we destroyed the fishery, and had to close it down to all fishing. The doom and gloom nanny state scientists were right.

    Part of the problem is that if you listen to the scientists, you probably will never know for sure if they were correct or not. It is only when you ignore what they say that you learn about just how accurate or inaccurate they are.

  54. Edward Haworth

    20 Apr, 2010 - 1:27 am

    It is really starting to annoy me that people criticise the government for scare-mongering or over-reacting to the swine flu pandemic. This was actually an example of good planning and decisive action in light of a rapidly evolving and unpredictable epidemic. We got lucky that the virus was less severe than feared but that is all it is: luck. If the government had ignored it we could just as easily have been looking at hundreds of thousands dead.

    Gordon Brown and the Labour party have been terrible for Britain but not everything they did was wrong.

  55. the_leander

    20 Apr, 2010 - 1:47 am

    “Mind yo 150km ffrom the volcano wouldn’t reach British airspace. Of course I understand it gets carried by wind, but in doing so it disperses.”

    The problem with jet engines (and turbo props), unlike the engine in a car or very old aircraft is that they lack a graceful degradation of operation. Unlike a car engine which might still go (albeit with much reduced power) with a couple of cylinders not firing, a Jet engine is much more likely to simply stop working. The only real question being whether it stops with a bang or a whimper.

    We know that going through relatively high concentrations will severely damage an engine or as in the case of the airliner completely kill it. The question that has to be asked is at what concentration is this stuff safe? What condition were the engines of that aircraft that went up today in when it came back down?

    These questions need answers to allow for a more fine tuned approach. I have to say that, unlike with SARs or Swine Flu, I think the gov have taken the correct action in this instance. I very much doubt that the tens of thousands stranded would really appreciate being used as guinea pigs if it turns out that sustained flying through lower levels is as catastrophic as a short stint through a higher concentration.

  56. glenn

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:02 am

    the_leander: Very true, and it’s not just people who decide to take the risk with their company, or those who want to fly thinking the chance is worth it because the government always lies an’ all. What about the people on the ground who have no say in it whatsoever? A plane falling randomly out of the sky can cause a lot of damage. Ask the remaining residents of Locherbie.

  57. MJ

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:20 am

    When planes have been affected by this type of volcanic ash in the past they have not crashed. The engines have seized up from the build-up of molten glass but the pilot has been able to rectify it by switching off the engines, gliding for a few seconds until the glass cools and solidifies, then restarting the engine.

    This has quickly expelled the glass and the plane has then flown normally. Perhaps not the kind of thing one would want passenger jets to do, but it does work.

  58. glenn

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:32 am

    MJ: This is a great example of the hugely inappropriate ways in which we treat relative risk. Might people accept there’s a bit of a risk of ash clogging up the engines, _and_ they can’t be restarted? Perhaps. But what about the vastly lesser risk of a mad jihadist getting onboard with some deadly bomb, and getting away with that? I’d suggest the second is vastly less risky. But people generally will accept the risks from jihadists far less readily, and so will subject themselves to humiliating searches and infringements on their civil liberties accordingly.

  59. Richard Robinson

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:45 am

    “the pilot has been able to rectify it by switching off the engines, gliding for a few seconds until the glass cools and solidifies, then restarting the engine … This has quickly expelled the glass and the plane has then flown normally. Perhaps not the kind of thing one would want passenger jets to do, but it does work.”

    If you were on a plane that did that, I think a reassurance that “not to worry, the engines will probably start again a bit before we hit the ground” would feel like something of a last resort. But it would certainly be a great advantage in researching the situation, if you might have to find yourself doing that.

    I dunno. It’s not clear to me what’s actually being done, and how much there’s maybe just a problem of presentation, which as usual seems a little infantilising.

    I mean, at the point where it’s a new situation, to look for what’s known, see the Indonesian example and say “Everybody down, now” seems reasonable enough as a first move, until you know more. But then all the subsequent presentation has seemed to be, just wait until it all blows away. Until the last day or two, when it’s “business” beginning to say “We’re losing money, how long does this go on ?”. Point is, the last time this volcano did its stuff, it emitted smoke for a couple of years. There’s no reason it has to be over any time soon. And there’s no way Europe is going to just not use ar travel any more. So we need to know a lot more detail about exactly when and why these problems start kicking in, and how you can spot (and predict the movements of) the patches of sky where bad things might happen.

    So I’d say what should have been happening is that Big European Government should have set about making sure that people are organising to find this stuff out. And the impression from the media doesn’t seem to be that, more individual airline companies trying things out on their own. I’d have thought some serious pooling of resources would be more appropriate. But maybe it’s happening and the reporting I’ve heard just hasn’t mentioned it.

  60. Larry from St. Louis

    20 Apr, 2010 - 4:39 am

    Glenn: “teabaggers like Larry”

    So, let’s review. I don’t believe in 911 nutter conspiracy theories, and I don’t believe that MMR causes autism, so I must be a right-wing Christian teabagger.

    The 911 nuts in the States started the tea party stuff. It morphed into a Ron Paul event, and now it’s an anti-Obama crowd. The 911 conspiraloons still show up for such things, but of course they’re shunned.

    As to anti-vax, I can imagine you’d find a lot of anti-vax nuts among the tea party crowd. It’s fairly popular nuttery among the anti-government crowd.

  61. the_leander

    20 Apr, 2010 - 8:37 am

    “This has quickly expelled the glass and the plane has then flown normally. Perhaps not the kind of thing one would want passenger jets to do, but it does work.”

    No, it did work, on one occasion. It was sheer luck that the airliner in question was flying much higher then normally, had the aircraft been flying at its normal altitude, it is every bit as likely that they would have ended up as a smear on the ground as landing safely. In the case of the F18′s out of Finland although the engines didn’t pack up, they were damaged so badly that they’re going to have to be replaced outright.

    Leaving this to pure luck with so many peoples lives involved (both those in the air and on the ground) is possibly the most irresponsible thing I have ever heard of.

    Other then that I agree with Richard Robinson.

  62. ingo

    20 Apr, 2010 - 8:47 am

    Trains still run on time, motorways can be used and those of you close by can come by bike to Blackbunr and help us here deliver a few thousand leaflets.

    I mean it, this campaign has all the chances of success if a few more could be bothered. I know its not Craigs campaign, but it is for the first Muslim candidate here, an Asian barbara castle to be precise.

    As yet I have seen precious little help come from anyone who has spoken out loudly in favour of Independents.

    Sorry for beimng so short , But I have to put some posters up as well next to everything else,.

    we need wo/manpower here,. there is a place to stay, so do come please.

  63. MD

    20 Apr, 2010 - 9:59 am

    To MJ

    Re:It is the air traffic controllers who have shut down the airspace.

    Yes but who advises them. the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre which is part of the Met Office which in turn is part of the Ministry of Defence. Not political?

  64. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 10:02 am

    As a society we have become risk averse to an unrealistic degree. We seem to spend our lives in a permanent state of cringe. Perhaps the ash really is too dangerous: but I see no reason to automatically believe the government on the subject.

    Nobody has to “believe the government”.

    But you give “the government” too much credit in assuming that they really know the truth about what’s going on at all times but that they simply tell lies for mysterious nefarious purposes.

    Of course governments lie but it doesn’t mean they’re smart and it makes no sense to think they’re lying about the volcano. What possible reason would there be for them to say it isn’t safe to fly when they KNOW that it is?

    I met two English travellers in the British Consulate today who were stuck in Japan because of the volcano. They were trying to contact two European airlines to see if they could fly back but were having no luck.

    The point, obviously, is that it is not simply the British government who says something. There is usually a consensus with governments of other countries too. There are still posters up about SARS here in Japan. When bird flu appeared we had people coming to the schools to talk about it. They also have earthquake awareness days. Yes, probably risk-aversion is taken to extremes, but not just in Britain, and they do it because if they didn’t then there would be a mass clamouring of public outrage if someone died from something they weren’t warned about but THE GOVERNMENT HAD BEEN TOLD ABOUT!

    Oh, and Richard Robinson, I did say there was a strong anti-vaccine contingent here. I weren’t lyin’.

  65. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 10:18 am

    Anyway, I am looking at this website which has information on European arrivals and departures from various airports and it looks to me as if ALL THE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS ARE LYING.

    Or they’re all taking the same precautions. Please choose the answer that best suits your view of the world.

    I just typed various cities into the box: “Munich”, “Paris”, “Copenhagen”, “Helsinki”, “Moscow” etc… and found there were loads of cancellations for flight arrivals and not just on the British airlines or those coming from Britain.

    http://tinyurl.com/y6ye6el

  66. MJ

    20 Apr, 2010 - 10:26 am

    “I don’t believe in 911 nutter conspiracy theories, and I don’t believe that MMR causes autism”

    We know that Larry. The problem is that you are rarely able to articulate and substantiate what you do believe. Consequently you are reduced to lobbing hackneyed custard pies at others, which is tedious.

  67. Craig

    20 Apr, 2010 - 11:59 am

    angrysoba,

    actually I agree with you. My posting points out the consensus of scientific bodies and intergovernmental organisations – just as there was over SARS and Avian flu and swine flu. I don’t in the least believe the proneness to unnecessary alarmism is malicious or an evil conspiracy. It is a result of an excessive nannying attitude by people who feel terribly powerful and paternalistic.

  68. Richard Robinson

    20 Apr, 2010 - 1:58 pm

    the_leander – “Leaving this to pure luck with so many peoples lives involved (both those in the air and on the ground) is possibly the most irresponsible thing I have ever heard of”

    Yes.

    And also, what happens to any airline that makes such a guess off their own bat, and gets it wrong ? Oops, our bad, N hundred grieving relatives bearing lawsuits, armed with examples of other airlines making a different decision … they’re broke, aren’t they ?

    They’re not the right people, the right bodies, to be up in front of this situation. Gathering the information and understanding that they need demands resources that are beyond what they’re equipped to find out, and they need some kind of cover against having to make such guesses – this is not a situation for economic darwinism, let them go to the wall if they guess wrong; because what’s being tested here is beyond their normal business.

    My point being, I think I disagree with Craig (on details) re: paternalism – I’m wondering if they’re being _incompetently_ paternalistic. I think this is, as I suggested before, a case for Big (European-scale) Goverment; it’s better placed and has vastly more resources, including military (no reason why can’t use them, even if it doesn’t involve killing anyone ? Aren’t they to keep us all safe ? maybe they have fancy radar ? planes that could investigate without resking killing hundred of travellers ?). By ‘incompetently’ , I mean the impression that they took a drastic first response and then are sitting back and not doing the rest of the job that needs to be done.

    But that may be a problem of perception / reporting ? That http://glidemet.co.uk/ blog that was posted earlier talks about what is known and where it comes from – and much of that is government bodies. So it may be that only the headline acts (ground everyone) are reported as government doings, while the useful stuff is somehow taken for granted, not mentioned (not headline material) ?

    I would like more of a sense of an organised attempt to get to grips with this. I guess it’ll emerge, one way or another, as the thing goes on. Or where are we, if it’s still smoking this time next year ?

    And me an anarchist. *grin*. I don’t like rulers. We need systems. The only trick is how to prise these two apart …

    - angrysoba, of course other countries are affected, clouds of ash don’t respect national borders. It’s a Europe-wide situation, depending on how the wind blows. Chernobyl without the lingering problems (at least it should be over when it stops ?).

    Oh, and whoever said they object to “swine flu” as an example of overblown panic, I agree. I’ve seen mutterings about over-ordering vaccines, and cui bono stuff, and so on, which may be so, but are details; the wider point is, see the possibility of a problem, take steps to avert it, it doesn’t happen; and what have you got ? It might be sheer magic (I’m worried about herds of white elephants, but so far the practice of not shaving has kept them away from my street), or it might be neat and rational. The difference between the two is one of understanding – defining a real problem and acting out of a working understanding of it.

    So, basically, that has been a rant in favour of Scientists, and a suspicion that we’re confusing what they say with the results of ‘governments acting on scientific advice’. Anyone who takes that link for granted, notice the drugs-advisory thing and what happens when scientific advice doesn’t agree with decisions that have been made for other reasons …

  69. Duncan McFarlane

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:01 pm

    correction – it was Gareth Craven who emailed me that Lloyd’s List piece, not Gareth Price

  70. Duncan McFarlane

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:29 pm

    the post i was correcting doesnt seem to be coming up – what it said was that i’d got an email with what it said was a Lloyd’s List report that the government has suspended laws passed after the Titanic went down in order to allow planes back in the sky despite the continuing risks

  71. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:44 pm

    Well, okay. But as I say I don’t think this is confined to Britain. In fact, I have a few books on my shelves which essentially say, “The problem with Japan is that its citizens are far too molly-coddled and have to be told what is and isn’t safe.”

    To some extent it is true and many Japanese I know would never travel abroad because of all the bombs and the terrorists and the Hooligans that will run amok at the slightest provocation. And confirmatory evidence can always be found to bear this and almost any theory out.

    But nannying might not be an end in itself. It could also be the fear of massive litigation. I don’t think it takes too much imagination to realize what would happen if a plane went down with all its passengers and “Da Gubmint” hadn’t been proactive enough in preventing the flights in the first place.

  72. ScouseBilly

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:47 pm

    Craig: “I believe, for example, that climate change is a great danger. Quite a lot of my friends, however, are dubious partly because the government is pushing it.”

    May I recomend The Cloud Mystery: the story of Danish scientist, Henrik Svensmark who spoke up for the truth of his convictions and research findings against the prevailing othordox “wisdom”/(agenda). You will, I suspect, feel some empathy for him.

    Having just finished, Murder in Samarkand (hearfelt thank you), I am touched by the parallels (especially when confonted by the British establishment):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKoUwttE0BA

  73. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 2:49 pm

    “- angrysoba, of course other countries are affected, clouds of ash don’t respect national borders. It’s a Europe-wide situation, depending on how the wind blows. Chernobyl without the lingering problems (at least it should be over when it stops ?).”

    Yes, yes, yes. But the point Craig made in the OP was that the government made Pronouncement X and suggested that us little people end up having to listen to what they said as if their word is final.

    My point is that it is not just the UK government saying X. Plenty of other countries agree. Not just EU countries either but Russia and Finland too, it seems.

    So, I would conclude, it isn’t simply political and not simply a decision made by the UK government.

  74. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:08 pm

    Actually, Richard, I have just read what you wrote about the volcanic eruption and agree pretty much with what you say.

    I spoke to my dad just now who worked for the RAF and CIA and who says that the decision to ground all planes was correct and correct on the basis that no one really knows what the consequences could have been from not doing so. But that a blanket ban can’t be sustained for long (and it surely won’t).

    I think that in some ways it should be reassuring (no?) that a government might do all it can (for whatever reason) to minimize the number of deaths from reckless flying.

    We clearly accept a certain amount of nannying (pesky speed limits and seatbelts in cars, guardrails on motorways, no smoking in pubs).

  75. Richard Robinson

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:10 pm

    “So, I would conclude, it isn’t simply political and not simply a decision made by the UK government”

    Yes. You’re right to point out that it’s not just European government, but apart from that I think we’re mostly agreeing with each other ?

    But, your phrasing of Craig – “the government made Pronouncement X and suggested that us little people end up having to listen to what they said as if their word is final” – I may be missing subtleties of tone-of-voice, I’m not sure whether I’m agreeing or otherwise with either you or Craig, but – the problem is, don’t we have to ? Shouldn’t we ? Their word, in this case, has the best claim to know more than anyone else, they’re best placed to come up with the knowledge (co-ordinate the people & bodies who can, I mean) on which the final word should be based (“final” meaning, I suppose, planes back in the sky with some confidence they won’t be falling out of it). Who else is there, to look to for it ? This is the sort of need that leads us all to put up with governments in the first place.

  76. Selma

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:40 pm

    At least the grounding of flights has lessened pollution for a short time :)

    I, personally, would like to see an end to jet flights (and capitalist, profit-oriented, society)and a move to a more environmentally sustainable form of international and intranational travel!

    C’mon the zeppelins!

  77. ScouseBilly

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:47 pm

    What happens to Zeppelins when the wind gets up, Selma?

    You should perhaps move to Cuba if capitalism doesn’t work for you ;) .

  78. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 3:57 pm

    “I spoke to my dad just now who worked for the RAF and CIA”

    Whoops! No one spotted the deliberate mistake which is that he worked for the CAA not CIA. Of course.

  79. angrysoba

    20 Apr, 2010 - 4:09 pm

    “I may be missing subtleties of tone-of-voice, I’m not sure whether I’m agreeing or otherwise with either you or Craig, but – the problem is, don’t we have to ? Shouldn’t we ? Their word, in this case, has the best claim to know more than anyone else, they’re best placed to come up with the knowledge (co-ordinate the people & bodies who can, I mean) on which the final word should be based”

    What I mean is that it is wrong to assume a government, particularly the UK’s, has a monopoly on such knowledge as this. Implicit in what Craig said, I thought, was that we essentially have no choice but to accept the UK government’s voice as authoritative and that we have no independent check on whether they are telling the truth or feeding us lies.

    I say that this is not correct as the UK cannot act alone, especially on this, and that if other European governments decide differently to that of the UK then the UK cannot simply fabricate scientific data wholesale.

    At least, I think so.

    (Just to anticipate a potential counterexample, this is not the same as Iraqi WMDs which wasn’t about studying phenomena that was accessible to all interested scientists or governments but a subject that is potentially far easier to fabricate by all parties involved including Iraq).

  80. The Cartoonist

    20 Apr, 2010 - 4:12 pm

    I just wonder where this person who quite often used to teach us here in the comments about those evil chemtrails has gone?

  81. Mark Golding - Children of Iraq

    20 Apr, 2010 - 4:47 pm

    “We clearly accept a certain amount of nannying (pesky speed limits and seatbelts in cars, guardrails on motorways, no smoking in pubs).”

    Clearly ‘angrysoba’ these regs are proven life savers to third parties and justified.

    Stealing British passports in a conspiracy to murder, attempting to seduce the British public into war using WMD lies, justifying torture as a valid means of obtaining information necessary to defeat terrorism and telling lies about bombs IN underground trains when “Mark Honingsbaum [sic] recorded several witnesses speaking of explosions under the floor of the train,” and a recent image analysis shows metal projecting upwards in the carriage blast area (Paul Joseph Watson)!

    No wonder the IRA hardened British public are sceptical.

  82. Jon

    20 Apr, 2010 - 5:08 pm

    @MJ – I am not well read on the alleged link between the MMR vaccine and autism. But it is of interest that Private Eye made the same connections you do, and opposed its use for a long period. Just this year, however, they asked their “MD” to review their coverage, who decided that PE had got it wrong (see link).

    I don’t have strong views either way on this, but if there is evidence available that still makes this connection, wouldn’t the coverage review have been different?

  83. ScouseBilly

    20 Apr, 2010 - 5:20 pm

    Jon, I worry about Private Eye – it’s not as independently minded as it used to be.

  84. Mark Golding - Children of Iraq

    20 Apr, 2010 - 5:26 pm

    Food for Thought:

    tinyurl.com/Eternal-vigilance1

    tinyurl.com/Eternal-vigilance2

    tinyurl.com/Eternal-vigilance3

    tinyurl.com/Eternal-vigilance4

    tinyurl.com/Eternal-vigilance5

    tinyurl.com/Eternal-vigilance6

  85. ingo

    20 Apr, 2010 - 6:01 pm

    Craig can you give me a ring its urgent, we need you for some info.

    07548969917

  86. tony_opmoc

    20 Apr, 2010 - 6:05 pm

    Volcanoes are quite common events, that have never before resulted in restrictions on this scale. However eruptions of this specific type, together with the unusual weather, that has caused a cloud of ash to be spread over an area of normally intense air traffic (such that even I can see dust on my car of a suspicious type), I think the restrictions are reasonable.

    Whilst its tough for thousands of people stranded abroad, and it may cause some problems in some asthmatics, the peace and quiet in for example places like Richmond-on-Thames is great. 30 years ago I used to live in St. Margarets just over Richmond Bridge. The noise every single minute was as bad as a classical music lover would experience on the front row of a Motorhead concert.

    As regards vaccinations and the rise in autism, the links are far from proven on either side of the debate. I agree that many children diagnosed with Asperger’s syndrome would 30 years ago, not be labelled as being autistic, but more likely be treated as gifted – and go on to achieve academic brilliance.

    However the rise in autism, as well as respiratory diseases such as asthma is completely dramatic, despite massive improvements in air quality in the UK. Something must have caused this. It may not be due to an enormous increase in the number of vaccinations given, but it hasn’t been proved that this is not the cause.

    I am personally convinced that the pharmaceutical industry is highly corrupt, and that governments and doctors are financially incentivised and propagandised to prescribe medicines on an enormous scale that do more harm than good. The reasons that most people get ill, is because they have an appalling diet and lifestyle and do not do enough exercise. Whilst drugs will lower high blood pressure and cholesterol, they do absolutely nothing to improve life expectancy, and can themselves cause significant problems. They do however generate Billions in Profits. The food industry is also highly corrupt – particularly in the USA.

    The inappropriate use of anti-biotics, both in animals and humans, has both reduced their effectiveness for their originally intended purpose and is heavily responsible for the enormous increase in hospital acquired infections, and the inability to treat them effectively.

    All vaccinations present some risk, but some are very worthwhile. Its a matter of getting the balance right. The Flu Scares and vaccination scandals of recent years have been outrageous.

    This is an extremely good article on the subject – though it is long – and needs some time to be read and understood – which is something many people no longer seem to be capable of.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/11/does-the-vaccine-matter/7723/

    So, off for a long bike ride tomorrow, whilst peace and quiet hopefully still reigns supreme (I haven’t seen the news yet). We actually played tennis this afternoon – for the first time in years. We were crap.

    Tony

  87. Suhayl Saadi

    20 Apr, 2010 - 6:15 pm

    Angrysoba, brilliant typo! CAA it is! Your dad will be relieved, I’m sure.

    Thanks, Glenn, I know exactly what you mean and I also know what I’m doing in relation to our friend. Some say that silence speaks volumes. I am a generous soul, though, prepared to give people the benefit of the doubt and to perceive good where I can – after all, which of us is perfect, certainly not me!

    But the longer the silence, the deeper the doubt.

  88. arsalan

    20 Apr, 2010 - 6:56 pm

    NEWS FLASH: Some Harvard faculty discover advocating Nazism might be wrong

    Condemning Kramer

    04.19.2010 | The Harvard Crimson

    By Lori Allen, Vincent A. Brown, and Ajantha Subramanian

    Published: Monday, April 19, 2010

    Much has been made of Martin Kramer’s suggestion that Palestinians be denied food and medicine in order to weaken their opposition to the Israeli occupation. We, along with a group of 25 other professors, scholars, and Harvard alumni, add our voices to the chorus of condemnation directed towards Dr. Kramer and express our concern that the Weatherhead Center has lent him its credibility. As academics, we question both the ethical and scholarly basis of Dr. Kramer’s public statements. We maintain that this is not a question of protecting Dr. Kramer’s free speech, as was indicated by the Weatherhead Center’s response to criticism. Rather, it is about maintaining appropriate standards of ethical and intellectual conduct; Dr. Kramer’s repellent statements evince a clear failure to meet those standards.

    The speech in question was made at the 10th annual Herzliya conference, the single most important gathering of influential policymakers and commentators in Israel. Kramer’s talk was part of a panel held on Feb. 3, 2010 entitled “Rising to the Challenge of Radical Indoctrination;” his Harvard affiliation was clearly identified in the conference program in connection with the talk. In Kramer’s presentation, he suggested that Israel’s current economic blockade of Gaza, now in its fourth year, represents a successful effort to “break Gaza’s runaway population growth.” He therefore argued against what he called “pro-natal subsidies” of food, medicine, and humanitarian aid that help to reproduce the “constant supply of superfluous young men” demanded by a so-called “culture of martyrdom” in Gaza.

    His argument has little scholarly merit. In the name of state security, it validates demographic strategies of population control that date at least back to Thomas Malthus and have been repeatedly found wanting both intellectually and morally for over two centuries. Also, by attributing to culture what is a political and social phenomenon, Kramer misrepresents the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A willingness to sacrifice oneself is not a desire for martyrdom rooted in Palestinian culture. Rather, as has been shown by scholars of the conflict, Palestinian youth turn to violent means to oppose the dehumanizing effects of the Israeli occupation. In short, Kramer’s remarks are not informed by current scholarship, but are animated by the spirit of early 20th century eugenics.

    Even if the Weatherhead Center were to overlook these scholarly shortcomings, it should at least consider the ethics of Kramer’s interventions. His characterization of young Palestinians as a superfluous population culturally predisposed to violence can only be described as racist. Indeed, his statements are rooted in a polemic that would have been unacceptable in reference to any other population. To quote Weatherhead Center executive committee member Stephen Walt, “What if a prominent academic at Harvard declared that the United States had to make food scarcer for Hispanics so that they would have fewer children? Or what if someone at a prominent think tank noted that black Americans have higher crime rates than some other groups, and therefore it made good sense to put an end to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and other welfare programs, because that would discourage African-Americans from reproducing and thus constitute an effective anti-crime program?” And, finally, what if a similar argument was made with regard to the Jewish people? If the Weatherhead Center would distance itself from such arguments and likely condemn them, why does it defend Kramer when he calls, in effect, for a policy of eugenics against Palestinians?

    As Harvard faculty, alumni, and affiliates, we deplore Dr. Kramer’s statements as morally reprehensible and intellectually indefensible. Furthermore, we encourage the Weatherhead Center to reexamine its procedures for evaluating the scholarly credibility of future affiliates.

    Lori Allen is an Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy of International and Area Studies. Vincent A. Brown is a Professor of History and of African and African American Studies. Ajantha Subramanian is an Associate Professor of Anthropology and of Social Studies.

  89. Suhayl Saadi

    20 Apr, 2010 - 7:56 pm

    Good on them. They won’t last long though. AIPAC and the ADL will be after their heads, you’ll see.

    Free expression is not permissible in this thematic area in the USA.

    Just like Avigdor Lieberman, Kramer will become a Cabinet Minister in Israel.

    The idea – so akin to that of the neocons, it’s difficult to tell who is who – is to push the boundaries of the conceivable so that the mainstream Estalishment becomes inured to such extremes and accepts a lesser (yet still extreme) version for a while, until the next extremist pushes out even further… The Thatcher and Major Governments and their spin-machines used this tactic a lot. A little like the actual annexation of Palestinian land, this process represents a gradual and barely perceptible annexation of our minds.

  90. Suhayl Saadi

    20 Apr, 2010 - 8:17 pm

    Larry, if you want to create a character that seems real, you first have to give them a soul. This is what is lacking in your posts and makes them stand-out from almost all the others.

    It’s like you have a check-list and are cross-referencing with a view to disruptive riposte but it is clear from the responses that in itself does not convince the recipients of the sources’s three-dimensionality of being.

    Therefore, they do not take your arguments seriously – because unlike those of, say, Alfred, Arsalan or Angrysoba, they are not presented as arguments but as mechanical cross-references, as a distillation of what appears to be someone else’s argumentation codified into a complex list – but a list, nonetheless. This has got nothing to do with whether or not one agrees or disagrees with the particular issues.

    The question then becomes, for how long has the teabag been brewed and are we talking Earl Grey or ‘supermarket savers’.

  91. brian

    20 Apr, 2010 - 8:55 pm

    Surely it’s outrageous to question the motives of the government regarding the closure of UK airspace. Let’s face it, 99% of us haven’t got a clue about the technical problems involved, if we didn’t have a government to look after us we could all be falling out of the sky like lemmings off a cliff.

    Someone on five live today was complaing that some rich people were able to hire their own planes/pilots to beat the ban. Instead of moaning we should face up to the fact that outside a few elite people most of us are better off with politicians protecting our interests with appropriate scientific advice. What’s wrong with a little trust in authority?

    Remember our leaders are on our side at the end of the day.

  92. Anonymous

    20 Apr, 2010 - 8:55 pm

    “..wise enough to know that load of religious hogwash isn’t going to fly in any sane country” – Glenn on Larry

    I thought “religious hogwash” was quite popular on this blog? Step forward Ano and Arselan…

  93. KingofWelshNoir

    20 Apr, 2010 - 9:21 pm

    ‘I don’t in the least believe the proneness to unnecessary alarmism is malicious or an evil conspiracy. It is a result of an excessive nannying attitude… ‘

    What about the time Tony Blair sent the tanks to Heathrow? Was that just excessive nannying?

  94. Anonymous

    20 Apr, 2010 - 9:28 pm

    What would the Typhoons do if Russian fighters entered British airspace. Best funny response wins a Typhoon courtesy of HM Government

  95. Suhayl Saadi

    20 Apr, 2010 - 9:48 pm

    Tea, anyone?

    There’s a very good mini-supermarket close to the Vauxhall Tube Station in London. It sells both excellent and cheap brands of tea.

  96. Suhayl Saadi

    20 Apr, 2010 - 9:54 pm

    What’s happened to ‘John Cord’? Popped-up once, issued a threat, then disappeared. Does he sip tea, too? We need to pay attention to Ole John Cord, you know. He sells lots and lots of cheap tea at knock-down prices. Mister Cord does make an exceedingly good cup of tea. There are a number of John Cords extant today, so much so, one might mistake it for a supermarket chain.

    The difference is, Mr Cord’s tea is brewed from blood.

  97. Suhayl Saadi

    20 Apr, 2010 - 9:56 pm

    I’ve always thought that loose tea tasted best. I’ve heard, too that tea-bags are just the gatherings from the floor.

    Does anyone have an opinion on tea?

    Always remember, Mr Cord is listening.

  98. MJ

    21 Apr, 2010 - 12:36 am

    “Does anyone have an opinion on tea?”

    I’m very partial to Earl Grey. Having a cup now in fact.

  99. crusty

    21 Apr, 2010 - 1:22 am

    Tea bags could easily be fitted in jet intakes to filter out the volcanic ash particles. If the pilots can avoid flying through rain clouds the tea will still be safe to brew afterward as is not toxic.

  100. glenn

    21 Apr, 2010 - 1:22 am

    I always go for fair trade tea myself. Same with coffee, as long as it’s reasonably strong. But sorry to digress, we were talking about one’s preference on teabagging, not coffee-making.

  101. Suhayl Saadi

    21 Apr, 2010 - 6:56 am

    Ah yes, coffee is a whole different… cup of tea.

    Coffee plantations are concentrated around Northern Virginia.

  102. Anonymous

    21 Apr, 2010 - 10:27 am

    Coffee is a holy drink for us Muslims.

    Legion has it that a saint found it difficult to pray during the nights, in a dream he was told that if he makes a drink out of the fruit of the coffee plant and drink it, he would be able to pray all night.

    It is why the Malaysia/Indonesia converted to Islam.

    A Yemeni trader sailed to make contracts to sell coffee. after making the contracts he went back to Yemen to collect the coffee which he has sold. When he returned to Malaysia, coffee prices had gone up by a lot so people assumed he would break the contract and charge a higher price. He refused and sold the coffee at the agreed price. His customers asked him why he was doing this and he said Islam doesn’t allow him to break contracts.

    People asked him about his religion and converted. the King of the area found out about the incident and asked him about what happened and Islam, so he told the king about Islam and the king converted. Overtime the population and neighbouring kingdoms followed.

    I personally don’t like coffee myself, I’m a tea drinker.

  103. Neil Craig

    21 Apr, 2010 - 5:52 pm

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”Henry Louis Mencken..

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