There had never been an Ukrainian nation state until the last twenty five years. The boundaries of the old Soviet Socialist Republics were never intended to define nation states, and indeed were in part designed to guard against forming potentially dangerous cohesive units. The Ukrainians are a nation and f they wish are certainly entitled to a state, but that its borders must be those defined, and changed several times, by the Soviet Union for the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic is not axiomatic.
It is not true that there is a general desire for secession for Ukraine on the linguistic and broadly West East split. It is true that key political attitudes do correlate closely to the linguistic split, with Russian speakers identifying with the ousted government, and favouring closer ties with Russian over closer ties with the West, while Ukrainian speakers overwhelmingly favour EU integration. But that does not translate into a general desire by the Russian speakers to secede from a Ukraine that goes the other way. The key to this is that two thirds of Russian speaking Ukrainian nationals view themselves as ethnically Ukrainian, not Russian. Only a third of Russian speakers, a sixth of the general population, regard themselves as ethnically Russian. It does appear to be true that among those who view themselves as ethnically Russian, there is a significant desire for union with Russia, and that there is probably a majority in some Eastern provinces for that idea, probably including Crimea. But the area involved is far smaller than the linguistically Russian area.
Ethnicity is of course a less tangible concept than linguistic identity, and has little claim to objective reality, particularly in an area with such turbulent history of population movement. But it is futile to pretend it has no part in the idea of a nation state, and is best regarded as a cultural concept of self-identification.
The historical legacy is extremely complex. Kievan Rus was essential to the construction of Russian identity, but for Russia to claim Kiev on that basis would be like France claiming Scandinavia because that is where the Normans came from. Kievan Rus was destroyed and or displaced by what historical shorthand calls the Mongal hordes, almost a millennium ago. Ukrainian history is fascinating, the major part of it having been at various times under Horde, Lithuanian, Polish, Krim Tartar, Galician, Cossack Federation, Russian and Soviet rule.
Still just within living memory, one in seven Ukrainians, including almost the entire intellectual and cultural elite, was murdered by Stalin. An appalling genocide. Like Katyn a hundred times over. That is the poisonous root of the extreme right nationalism that has rightly been identified as a dangerous element in the current revolution. Pro-western writers have largely overlooked the fascists and left wing critics have largely overlooked Stalin. His brutal massacre and ethnic cleansing of the Krim Tartar is also relevant – many were forcibly deported to Uzbekistan, and I have heard the stories direct.
Having served in the British Embassy in Poland shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, I regard as blinkered those who deny that membership of the European Union would be a massive advantage to Ukraine. In 1994 there was very little difference in the standard of living in both countries – I saw it myself. The difference is now enormous, and that really means in the standard of living of ordinary working people. Poland’s relationship with, and eventual membership of, the European Union has undoubtedly been a key factor. Those who wish Ukraine instead to be linked to the raw commodity export economy of Putin’s Russia are no true friends of the working people. Ukraine’s accidental boundaries include, of course, the great formerly Polish city of Lvov.
Ukraine is an accidental state and its future will be much brighter if it is a willing union. It needs not just Presidential and Parliamentary elections, but also a federal constitution and a referendum on whether any of its provinces would prefer to join Russia. That can give an agreed way forward to which Russia might also subscribe, and defuse the current crisis. It would suit the long term interest of both the Ukraine and the West. I fear however that the politicians will be too macho to see it.
well said Crag…
here is a very detailed piece –
The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev: The Protests in Ukraine Transformed into a Coup That Can Target Russia
By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya
The Road to Moscow Goes Through Kiev: The Protests in Ukraine Transformed into a Coup That Can Target Russia @
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-road-to-moscow-goes-through-kiev-how-the-protests-in-ukraine-transformed-into-a-coup-that-could-target-russia/5370479
OOOPS…. Sorry about the Name Misspell Craig
Will Putin stand by and watch?
The Russian Stronghold in Ukraine Preparing to Fight the Revolution
Lawmakers and worried citizens in the pro-Russia Crimea consider their options
http://world.time.com/2014/02/23/the-russian-stronghold-in-ukraine-preparing-to-fight-the-revolution/
Reminder http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet
I think I heard that there are over 24,000 troops based there.
More asset grabbing at work,
Human rights beyond that of tax avoidance and oligarchy should be addressed,and won’t be within the current system.
Q1. Salmond what about tax havens.
From Craig’s post:
But a single nation with internal enmity is more easily manipulated than a strong one, to either the Western power-bloc or to Russia. So Craig’s sensible suggestion will probably get little favourable discussion by politicians and the mainstream / corporate / state media on either side of the propaganda divide.
Looks Like Putin has Aready taken some measures Mary…According to Russian news site flot.com,
Russian military ships carrying soldiers have arrived on Ukraine’s Crimean coast
Russia’s large landing ship Nikolai Filchenkov has arrived near the Russia Black Sea Fleet’s base at Sevastopol, which Russia has leased from Ukraine since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The ship is reported to be carrying as many as 200 soldiers and has joined four additional ship carrying an unknown amount of Special Forces troops. Flot.com also reported over the weekend that personnel from the 45th Airborne Special Forces unit and additional divisions had been airlifted into Anapa, a city on Russia’s Black Sea coastline. In addition, it is believed that Russia’s Sevastopol base contains as many as 26,000 troops already,
http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-ships-arrive-ukraines-crimean-coast-fears-mount-over-russian-invasion-region-1557639
My grandmother and two of my aunt’s were raped, murdered, and then thrown into a ditch by marauding Ukrainian fascists looking for Jews and Poles in 1944, so, I’m rather sceptical about the history and merits of Ukrainian nationalism and what that particular set of stories and myths can lead to.
I think it’s disturbing to see Western politicians cosying up to very dubious activists on the extreme right in the Ukrain, giving them support and empowering them in their struggle to topple the regime/government of Ukraine. I wonder how one deals and controls these militant and nationalist forces who now appear to hold power in the Ukraine, or at least those areas under their sway? Once the ultra-nationalist geni is out of the bottle how does one get it back in again? National Socialist stormtroopers are a funny bunch, ready to fight and die for what they believe in on the baricades, how many people really believe democrats and liberals have been bleeding and killing on the frontline, don’t people like that have better things to do with their time than that?
If, if, this isn’t another genuine peoples’ revolution, but a carefully orchestrated coup, spearheaded by militant neo-fascist streetfighters, isn’t that cause for concern? What if the new regime is weaker and worse than the old one and Ukraine slides even deeper into chaos and anarchy? Why should the stormtroopers accept less than total power? If a few thousand fighters can bring down a weak and unpopular government why shouldn’t they attempt to seize power for themselves? Have Europe’s and the Americans thought this through properly, or have they been so obsessed with toppling the regime and underming Russia and Putin’s prestige, that they don’t really care who they work with and the pontentila consequences of empowering the far-right, so long Russia is rolled-back?
Writeon… Sorry to hear of that sad time in your Family history… Truly Evil
Re the west involvement Anonymous Ukraine have been in the thick of it.
Anonymous Ukraine releases Klitschko e-mails showing treason
Anonymous Ukraine is operating in what can only now be described as a war zone and the security measures they are forced to take are extreme. A member of Anonymous Ukraine who wishes to remain anonymous spoke to the Voice of Russia about the operations and the recent release of e-mails between Vitaly Klischko and the Lithuanian Presidential advisor. The e-mails show that Klitschko was intentionally planning to destabilize the country, is being instructed and funded from abroad and has his accounts in Germany.
more on this, and Emails at Bottom of page @
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_02_23/Anonymous-Ukraine-releases-Klitschko-e-mails-showing-treason-3581/
Here’s a map of the Ukrainian parliamentary election results 2012:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Ukr_elections_2012_multimandate_okruhs.png
The 2010 presidential run-off shows a broadly similar split (sorry about special characters in the web address):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png
Further information about Ukrainian elections here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Ukraine
It’s all very well arguing that individual Ukrainians would be better off as members of the EU, but would the world be better off with US bases on the Russian border.
Neither is it totally clear that EU interest in Ukraine is any more than part of a plan to further hem in the Russians, which is probably why the deal they offered was so poor.
Western Ukraine is in a particularly bad way economically, whilst the East is somewhat better off.
I’m not sure the EU is in any position to bail-in Western Ukraine, never mind the whole country.
Anyway, Putin can always turn off the gas supply. Despite the events, Russia looks to be in much the stronger position.
Poland has been out of the Great Game for quite some time so perhaps that explains why they don’t appear totally concerned about the potential for chaos on their borders, or perhaps it’s just their hatred of Russians trumping all. The EU too of course seems rather unconcerned about unleashing chaos on their border, but perhaps they just do what the US wants even when they’re the ones paying the price.
That’s all fine and dandy, Craig, but my concern is that the main power on the streets, at least in Kiev, seems to be armed fascists. There are also questions about which foreign groups fund and support the neoliberal opposition, and why.
“But a single nation with internal enmity is more easily manipulated than a strong one, to either the Western power-bloc or to Russia. So Craig’s sensible suggestion will probably get little favourable discussion by politicians and the mainstream / corporate / state media on either side of the propaganda divide.”
No, the opposite is the case, the smaller states are easier to control and manipulate. Much of US foreign policy has been aimed at the balkanisation of states.
If they can just get a part of Ukraine into the EU, then into NATO, then build their missile bases America will be more than happy.
“Ukraine’s interim President Olexander Turchynov has warned of the dangers of separatism following the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych.”
Really.
Surely this Separatism is an inevitable product of the actions of Turchynov and his chums.
It was they who were involved in the coup which toppled the democratically elected president of the whole country and they did so in their own sectional interests in full knowledge of the divisive nature of their enterprise.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26333587
“Venezuela: Reports Arrest of Arab Mercenary in Aragua State”
http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2413531&Itemid=1
Ukraine: Russia Warns Of ‘Dangerous’ Dilemma
Sergei Lavrov says choosing between Russia and the West is “counterproductive”, as the formation of a new government is delayed.
http://news.sky.com/story/1216898/ukraine-russia-warns-of-dangerous-dilemma
Mary
How can country’s be in such debt?
It comes after acting leaders in Ukraine said they need $35bn (£21bn) to avoid defaulting.
The United States is ready to provide financial support to boost an International Monetary Fund (IMF) aid programme.
This situation is ridiculous. The whole system needs reforming.
Any ideas?
This post is a real curate’s egg. Of course, a federal constitution, and referenda in those southern and eastern regions that may wish to secede, is an ideal solution. Truly federal arrangements, and referenda to decide on final status, is also the ideal solution to the Tibetan and Kashmiri problems- but the ideal solution hasn’t a snowflake in hell’s chance of realisation at the present day in any of these scenarios.
Macho posturing, whether by global powers (the US), regional powers (China, Russia, India) or wannabe powers (the EU)is a geopolitical fact of life, and power plays by such actors have a habit of frustrating outcomes which the local participants, if left alone, could arrive at themselves.
A couple of other quibbles; yes, Lviv could be described as ‘the great formerly Polish city of Lvov’. You could also call it ‘the great formerly Habsburg city of Lemberg’. And yes, Polish living standards have risen over the last 20 years whereas Ukrainian living standards have lagged. Membership of the EU has led to the relocation of much light manufacturing ,(eg car assembly) to the new members in the East (to the detriment of ‘old Europe’), remittances from Polish workers resident in the UK and Ireland have undoubtedly trickled down, and CAP and Cohesion fund monies have also helped Poland greatly (even though there isn’t a level playing field in the CAP for the accession states). But there’s the rub- full membership of the Ukraine ain’t gonna happen , as the Ukraine would bankrupt the CAP (given the size of its agricultural sector) and likely bankrupt the Cohesion fund as well.
Another fly in the ointment in fast tracking EU membership for the Ukraine is that it will seriously piss off the Turks. So far, I think only the comment piece below has pointed out this uncomfortable truth-
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/anatol-lieven-now-ukraine-faces-the-toughest-times-of-all-9149123.html
‘Another fly in the ointment in fast tracking EU membership for the Ukraine is that it will seriously piss off the Turks.’
If the Turks aren’t seriously pissed off already it would be a wonder. But letting in the Turks would piss off the Greeks…. Erdoğan’s looking east now, in any event, and probably having cosy chats with Russia as well. It’s just a short hop from Trabzon to Sochi.
Paul Craig Roberts explains some of the background to the Ukrainian coup, the US part in it and the madness of US policymakers:
http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-829-paul-craig-roberts-connects-the-dots-on-the-ukrainian-revolution/
Another interesting read ….
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraine-turns-revolution-recovery
Missing from Murray’s analysis is the critical role played in the “revolution” by fascist elements supported and fomented by the United States. What happened in Kiev was not so much a peaceful democratic revolution as depicted, for example, on the BBC, but rather a violent insurrection amounting to a coup.
fred, 10:12 am
Yes, smaller states are more vulnerable, but divided states are also less stable than cohesive states. But if a large state splits, the result is two smaller states. If either of those states gains stability and cohesion as a result of the split, the two effects can work in opposite directions.
Yes; whole or part, it’d all be gain for the Western power-bloc. I’d rather say that “… America should be more than happy”, especially considering the enhanced stability and the long range of modern missiles. But I bet each superpower would prefer to gain major influence over the entire territory; as Craig said:
If the Ukraine, a most divided country, is not split, it will continue to be a target by the Wes in its mission to dismember Russia and what is left of the USSR – what the West embarked on when it staged the Orange Revolution.
Putin is such an enemy of the West, starring with his counter measures when the Anglo-Americans wanted to take out the USSR with a non-nuclear war, triggered by Olof Palme’s assassination, that it will continue to exploit the divisions in a still united Ukraine until it topples the regime in Moscow.
With Moscow getting the eastern part of Ukraine – what is really just a strategically important Russian enclave – Russia’s global isolation, especially to the world’s waterways, will be ended, and it will behave like a less paranoid state.
Daniel
“That is the poisonous root of the extreme right nationalism that has rightly been identified as a dangerous element in the current revolution.” You seem to have missed that bit.
Craig, sorry, yes I did.
No doubt Uncle Joe was a bad guy, but some feel he was just apathetic. rather than purposeful in the case of Holodomor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
“The reasons for the famine are a subject of scholarly and political debate. Some scholars suggest that the man-made famine was a consequence of the economic problems associated with changes implemented during the period of Soviet industrialization.[25][26][30]
Collectivization also contributed to famine in 1932. Collectivization in the USSR, including the Ukrainian SSR, was not popular among the peasantry; and forced collectivisation led to numerous peasant revolts. The First Five-Year Plan changed the output expected from Ukrainian farms, from the familiar crop of grain to unfamiliar crops like sugar beets and cotton. In addition, the situation was exacerbated by poor administration of the plan and the lack of relevant general management. Significant amounts of grain remained unharvested, and – even when harvested – a significant percentage was lost during processing, transportation, or storage.
However, it has also been proposed by certain historians that the Soviet leadership used the man-made famine to attack Ukrainian nationalism, and thus the man-made famine may fall under the legal definition of genocide.[24][25][26][27][28] For example, special and particularly lethal policies were adopted in and largely limited to Soviet Ukraine at the end of 1932 and 1933. “[E]ach of them may seem like an anodyne administrative measure, and each of them was certainly presented as such at the time, and yet each had to kill.”[52] A 2011 documentary, Genocide Revealed, presents evidence for the view that Stalin and the Communist regime (not necessarily the Russian people as a whole) deliberately targeted Ukrainians in the mass starvation of 1932–1933”
Can you believe the crap the Western media is taking seriously now – e.g., Moscow stoking up separatism sentiment in the Crimea as if Kiev has already has not already done more than enough, the former President of Georgia Saakasvili, of all people, telling anyone who will listen that Yanukovych boasted to him on many occasions of his massive corruption in the Ukraine, its parliament now calling upon the Hague to try the alleged former Ukrainian president for war crimes, etc.!
Talk about war-mongers being in a hurry!
“Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death,
Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns’ he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
‘Forward, the Light Brigade!’
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldiers knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.”
Was it really about religion?
No. We are good at going to war and killing. Look at the number of casualties in the table on the right hand side. Hundreds of thousands, yet again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War
“No doubt Uncle Joe was a bad guy, but some feel he was just apathetic. rather than purposeful in the case of Holodomor.”
______________________
Craig – for God’s sake please intervene occasionally when you see bollocks like this and give the “commenter” a good kick. Stalin “apathetic”? It sounds like those apologists and useful fools in the 1930s who, during the Great Terror, said “Oh, it’s all the NKVD, if Stalin knew he would put a stop to it”