I am not opposed to self determination for the people of Crimea; I am opposed to this referendum. Nobody can seriously argue there has been a chance for a campaign in which different viewpoints can be freely argued, with some equality of media access and freedom from fear and intimidation.
Hitler invaded Austria on 12 March 1938. The Anschluss was confirmed in a plebiscite on 10 April, just 28 days later, by a majority of 99.7%. Putin has done it in less than half of the time, and I have no doubt will produce a similar result in the vote. The point is not whether or not the vote reflects the will of the people – the point is whether the will of the people has been affected by military demonstration, fear, hysterically induced national psychosis and above all an absence of space for debate or alternative viewpoints.
There is no reasonable claim that Putin’s swift plebiscite is necessary because of an imminent threat of violence against Russians in Crimea. There is absolutely no reason that a referendum could not have been held at the end of this year, in a calm and peaceful atmosphere, after everybody had a chance to campaign and express their position. Putin has proved that force majeure is powerful in international politics, and there is every reason to believe that he could have finessed international acceptance of such a referendum in due course. Germany, in particular, is much more interested in its own energy supplies than in the rights of Ukraine. In twenty years in diplomacy, I never saw a single instance of Germany having any interest in rights other than its own national self-interest. It is very likely such a genuine referendum would have gone in Russia’s favour. But the disadvantages of open debate about the merits and demerits of Putin’s Russia, and his own self-image as the man of military prowess, led Putin to take the more violent course.
The vote yesterday in the Security Council should give every Putinista pause. Not even China voted with Russia. The Africans and South Americans voted solidly against. That is not because they are prisoners or puppets of the United States – they are not. Neither did they take the easy road of abstention. The truth is that what Putin is doing in Crimea is outrageous.
What happens now is going to be interesting. I greatly fear that Putin is looking to stir up as much disorder in Ukraine’s Eastern provinces as possible, perhaps with the aim of promoting civil war in which Russia can covertly intervene, rather than open invasion, but I do not put the latter past him. Against that, I am quite sure Russia did not expect the extreme diplomatic isolation, in fact humiliation, it suffered at the UN yesterday. I am hopeful Russia may step back from the brink.
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited. I doubt we have seen the last of Mr Putin’s adventurism.
Human society is not perfectible, which does not mean we should not try. I believe western democracy, particularly in its social democratic European manifestation from approximately 1945 to 2000, achieved a high level of happiness for its ordinary people and an encouraging level of equality. For approximately 20 years unfortunately we have witnessed a capitalism more raw and unabated than ever before, and massively growing levels of wealth inequality, a reduction in state provision for the needy, a distortion of state activity further to line the pockets of the rich, ever increasing corruption among the elite and growing levels of social immobility and exclusion, a narrowing of the options presented by major political parties until there is not a cigarette paper between them and their neo-conservative agendas, and a related narrowing by the mainstream media of the accepted bounds of public debate, with orchestrated ridicule of opinions outside those bounds. Democracy, as a system offering real choice to informed electors, has ceased to function in the West leading to enormous political alienation. On the international scene the West has retreated from the concept of international law and, heady with the temporary unipolar US military dominance, adopted aggressive might is right polices and a return of the practices of both formal and informal imperialism.
But every single one of those things is true of Putin’s Russia, and in fact it is much worse. Wealth inequality is even more extreme. Toleration of dissent and of different lifestyles even less evident, the space for debate even more constricted, the contempt for international law still more pronounced. Putin’s own desire for imperialist sphere of influence politics leads him into conflict with aggressive designs of the west, as for example in Syria and Iran. The consequence can be an accidental good, in that Putin has thwarted western military plans. But that is not in any sense from a desire for public good, and if Putin can himself get away with military force he does. His conflicts of interest with the west have deluded a surprising number of people here into believing that Putin in some ways represents an ideological alternative. He does not. He represents a capitalism still more raw, an oligarchy still more corrupt, a wealth gap still greater and growing still quicker, a debate still more circumscribed. It speaks to the extreme political failure of the western political system, and the degree of the alienation of which I spoke, that so many strive to see something beautiful in the ugly features of Putinism.
FFs Craig…
Putin aint posting Snuff movie’s online,….
And that’s the Mild stuff…BBW
Mild stuff Meaning The Horrors of Syria…. Videos @ ALL OVER THE FKN place
“There is absolutely no reason that a referendum could not have been held at the end of this year, in a calm and peaceful atmosphere, after everybody had a chance to campaign and express their position.
WHF Craig! Absolutely no reason? Aside, that is, from the illegal, coup installed thugs now ruling in Kiev, their puppet masters and of course Nuland’s $5 billion.
Whether local militia, Russian special forces or a bit of both are responsible, isn’t it clear that what has happened in Crimea so far is the successful containment of the violent, ultra-right forces unleashed with our tax dollars and euros in Ukraine. Maybe we should deal with that issue before we criticise the Crimean referendum . It may not be perfect but it seems to be a perfectly rational and, so far peaceful, response to the latest episode of european fascism.
As for the suggestion that while western capitalism might be bad, Putin’s version is worse. In this case, where is the evidence? Where are the bodies, the thousands of bomb-sites, the DU dust, etc?
Isn’t the principle of self-determination the bottom line here?
It may be hasty and imperfect, but today’s referendum “There is absolutely no reason that a referendum could not have been held at the end of this year, in a calm and peaceful atmosphere, after everybody had a chance to campaign and express their position.
WHF! Absolutely no reason? Aside, that is, from the illegal, coup installed thugs now ruling in Kiev, their puppet masters and of course Nuland’s $5 billion.
Whether local militia or Russian special forces are responsible, isn’t it clear that what has happened in Crimea so far is a successful containment of violent, ultra-right forces unleashed with our tax dollars and euros in Ukraine. Maybe we should deal with that issue before we criticise the Crimean referendum . It may not be perfect but it seems to be a perfectly rational and, so far peaceful, response to the latest episode of european fascism.
As for the suggestion that while western capitalism might be bad, Putin’s version is worse. In this case, where is the evidence? Where are the bodies, the thousands of bomb-sites, the DU dust, etc?
Isn’t the principle of self-determination the relevant here?
If you were living in Crimea would you choose to be governed from Kiev by Svoboda userpers? In what circumstances could the Kiev government have more legitimacy than a post referendum one in Crimea?
The underlying issue in seems to have been forgotten in the haze of anti-Russian indignation. That is, the Westernh habit of interference and regime-change in sovereign states. Venezuela next. If you were living in Crimea would you choose to be governed by Svoboda?
Oops! Sorry for doubling up there. Mod, please delete half!
“Whether local militia, Russian special forces or a bit of both are responsible, isn’t it clear that what has happened in Crimea”
Only to the blind I’m afraid.
What about the ultra right forces unleased on the Russian people – aka KGB/nomenklatura/Putinistas – but at least they are not using anyone’s tax dollars having awarded themselves a maximum 13% tax rate.
“The underlying issue in seems to have been forgotten in the haze of anti-Russian indignation. That is, the Westernh habit of interference and regime-change in sovereign states.”
And what about the Russian habit of interference and regime-change in sovereign states – that you wilfully ignore (do you know anything about the recent history of Ukraine??). Or we could also talk about the Chinese habit as well?
Spot on, Craig, I’d agree with 95% of what you say.
However, as you’ll have noticed already, the excellence of your post will not be sufficient to convince the usual suspects. The counter arguments put up to posts of this nature would never cease to amaze me were it not clear that the starting point of those counter arguments is one of anti-Westernism come what may. Why that should be so is , I regret to have to say, probably a matter for psychiatrists.
Again: congratulations.
https://twitter.com/chessninja/status/444957585733455873/photo/1
From yesterday’s “spontaneous” pro Putin demonstration – nice to see how the demonstrators were all issued with matching uniforms and organised themselves in nice orderly ranks and the USSR 2.0 was such a nice touch. I’m sure the fellow travellers and useful idiots will agree.
Strangely enough no comment on this from our resident Putinistas, who continue to enjoy the freedom of speech that they their hero is prepared to deny to others.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/us-russia-internet-idUSBREA2C21L20140313
“Human society is not perfectible, which does not mean we should not try. I believe western democracy, particularly in its social democratic European manifestation from approximately 1945 to 2000, achieved a high level of happiness for its ordinary people and an encouraging level of equality. ”
I recommend to you the argument of Thomas Piketty, which is, in short, that the “high level of happiness…and an encouraging level of equality” were not the result of western democracy, but were rather the accidental consequence of massive capital destruction in the decades before 1945, and of the political space thereby opened up for massive capital redistribution in the decades after.
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52384/1/MPRA_paper_52384.pdf
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Piketty2013Cologne.pdf
“For approximately 20 years unfortunately we have witnessed a capitalism more raw and unabated than ever before, and massively growing levels of wealth inequality, a reduction in state provision for the needy, a distortion of state activity further to line the pockets of the rich, ever increasing corruption among the elite and growing levels of social immobility and exclusion, a narrowing of the options presented by major political parties until there is not a cigarette paper between them and their neo-conservative agendas, and a related narrowing by the mainstream media of the accepted bounds of public debate, with orchestrated ridicule of opinions outside those bounds.”
It is Piketty’s argument (and he has the data to support it), that everything you describe here is merely “reversion to the mean” for western democracy, not a deviation from the norm.
Putin annexation Part 2 appears to have already started
http://nypost.com/2014/03/15/russian-forces-move-into-ukraine-on-the-eve-of-referendum/
Perhaps the Putinistas might wish to get their justification in early – and while doing so perhaps they could let us know what they consider to be the acceptable limits of Putin’s expansionism – to the Polish border, to the German border, to the former West German border, to the Baltic coast, to Chisinau, to Tashkent???
And what is Michael Robinson’s argument for “reversion to the mean” when it comes to Russia?
“It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.”
On the other hand, it’s also possible the disasters of the last twenty years are the predictable consequence of a compulsive, self-defeating message indiscipline afflicting the entire political left.
Hard to say, really.
@Resident Dissident:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=861DJLR4Cek
Meditate on the logos of the corporate sponsors until you get to the 4:40 mark, where the sponsor’s agenda is briefly aired.
Capital accumulation is easiest when the capital is acquired cheaply, and there is no cheaper capital than distressed capital.
The simple fact remains that Putin is currently the only block on Western ambition.
Since Western ambition is now at nightmarishly Strangelove levels under American neocons, this has to be a positive thing for humanity as a whole.
The West has thrown international law out the window and we now live in a world of trial by combat and cunning. The more observant Westerners will have noticed that increasingly we are forced to live in this manner in our own individual states.
The only hope then is that Putin hold the fort until the other BRICS and non-alligned get up to speed, the Europeans unwind, stress the dollar, put the criminals on trial and start over.
Sorted!
One sycophantic comment-maker has been raiding the apple-barrel to set himself up as teacher’s pet again, having suffered some disgrace by having comments binned through not having done his homework. It must be pretty galling for Craig to have attracted such a bedmate.
Under normal circumstances I would agree myself with the blog-post, although I do not think the comparison with Hitler’s invasion of Austria is valid because of the extraordinary circumstances in the Ukraine. To make the blog-post reasonable it is necessary to go back to primary causes of the referendum, that is, a load of thugs (this is not a popular rising but a western-funded coup) have taken over the legitimate government of the Ukraine. Once they are removed it is right and proper to argue the timescale of a referendum. But first it needs to be argued whether these gangsters, Nazis in fact, should be in power.
There have been systematic lies from the start from our media, and the population of Crimea might well want to become part of Russia because that might prevent a similar western-funded coup in the Crimea. This is the truth. This is what should be argued in favour, or against, because this is what started it all. Even this morning the BBC had a Ukrainian liar who tried to tell the viewing public that there had been a Russian invasion of Crimea. The only trouble is the viewing public will believe it. In this video Nuland (Fuck the EU) is talking to her friends. Argue this. It’s the place to start.
http://scgnews.com/the-ukraine-crisis-what-youre-not-being-told
Given that no one can seriously argue that there has been anything other than a coup in Kiev the referendum is only to be expected. Of course Tartars are not happy and the West should keep an eye on their situation, but the real concerns are not the referendum but 1) who are those now in control in Kiev and how they got there and 2) whether Russia will try to extend its reach beyond Crimea over the east of Ukraine. There must be a risk of that and danger in it. Crimea itself is more or less inevitable.
Michael Robinson
You of course didn’t answer my question – but fortunately the following comment did highlight something of what has happened in Russia:
“Capital accumulation is easiest when the capital is acquired cheaply, and there is no cheaper capital than distressed capital.”
Because of course this is exactly what Putin and his fellow oligarchs have done with Russian capital – which to a large extent they have then stolen from their foreign countrymen and sent abroad, placing it into “investments” such as One Hyde Park. Gazprom, and those who benefit from its cashflow, of course has no interest whatsoever in the Ukraine.
Herbie
The one problem with your love in with Putin is that you will find the cure even worse than the disease.
Some other perspectives:
Charles Crawford –
Ukraine, Russia and Europe
http://charlescrawford.biz/N0RXWL854071
It predates the Crimea moves.
and today on RT, Neil Clark –
http://rt.com/op-edge/crimea-artificially-created-crisis-838/
~~
Nothing substantial from our man in Kiev, Simon Smith.
http://blogs.fco.gov.uk/simonsmith/
PS Has he got an amazing dancing bear? Anyone remember it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8zI5xjwKYw
“To make the blog-post reasonable it is necessary to go back to primary causes of the referendum, that is, a load of thugs (this is not a popular rising but a western-funded coup) have taken over the legitimate government of the Ukraine.”
I think I will place rather more credence on this matter on the views of Timothy Snyder who knows rather more of the history of this part of the world and actually visited Kyiv than a long standing apologist for all things Putin who freely throws the fascist insult at western governments and their politicians.
“Even this morning the BBC had a Ukrainian liar who tried to tell the viewing public that there had been a Russian invasion of Crimea.”
So where did all those well trained and equipped troops without insignia arrive from? However, much you try you will never get promoted to fellow traveller Gospodin Goss.
Resident Dissident, argue against the video (did you watch it?) not what you consider my politics to be.
@Resident Dissident
“Because of course this is exactly what Putin and his fellow oligarchs have done”
Well, that’s exactly the argument in a nutshell. All the claims about democratic will and national aspiration and yadda yadda are merely sideshows and distractions to the realpolitik question of who ends up with the loot. The Ukrainian people are screwed either way.
Personally, I agree with Mr. Murray on this point: Putin’s actions in Crimea are worse than a crime, they’re a blunder. All evidence is that he could have achieved everything he has there so far, and more, through widely-recognised proper procedures and with international legitimacy, but he appears to lack the self-discipline and self-awareness to play that game.
Res Diss
You’re quite simply a victim of neocon propaganda, as your many posts on this and other matters routinely show.
It’s not about Putin winning. It’s about him blocking the fascist takeover until the rest of the world can combine and overturn their current hegemony.
You’re wrong about the oligarchs as well, of course. He prosecuted many of those who benefitted from the neocon rape of Russia under a Yeltin drunk on neocon largesse, whilst others of them fled to the West.
There’s a kinda pattern there.
And, unsurprisingly you’re wrong about One Hyde Park, as this investigation shows:
http://www.vanityfair.com/society/2013/04/mysterious-residents-one-hyde-park-london#
From the RT fellow traveller that Mary linked to:
“But it was an artificially-created “crisis” as what was going on in Kosovo was a low-level conflict between Yugoslav forces and Kosovan Liberation Army fighters backed by the West.”
What f***ing planet do these people live on. They’ll be repeating the line that the Holodomor was down to crop failures and poor administration next.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_the_Kosovo_War
It is so easy for those who would divert to take a sentence or two out of context as Resident Dissident has done at 9.43 p.m. and divert from the message of the comment – which is the video at the end. This is straight out of the trolls’ handbook, though of course I am not saying the Resident Dissident is a troll. I have known him make some good arguments. That comment focusing on me and not the video is not one of his best efforts.
“He prosecuted many of those who benefitted from the neocon rape of Russia under a Yeltin drunk on neocon largesse, whilst others of them fled to the West.”
He prosecuted those who disagreed with him – disputes between mafia bosses are nothing new. The rape of Russia by his pet oligarchs has continued – the fact that you are in denial makes it clear that it is you who is the victim of propaganda not myself.
I would go along with what you are saying, Craig, if the western media were reporting impartially. However, the reporting I saw on the BBC news yesterday wasn’t exactly balanced. It reminded me of Hitler’s statement regarding the matter of telling lies, and what people would believe… Putin’s Russia may not be everyone’s (anyone’s…) ideal of democracy either, but in this case it is the west that is supporting fascism, and inadvertently bringing all of the powers of their media to support that fascism. Yes, Putin could have just stood by meekly and said “people will see through the fascists”, but history tells us it doesn’t work like that, and journalists these days don’t seem to have a sense of history (or irony!)
My understanding of the UN resolution is that it was deliberately worded to isolate Russia, and no self-effacing country could vote against. I’m surprised if only China abstained. I’ve never before understood how Europe could have allowed fascism to rise in the 1930s, but of course I now realise that the media were all powerful then as now, and they facilitated Hitler’s work. Churchill must have been fuming through all of this, as he could see what was happening with the growth of fascism – what about Guernica, for example – but he was consistently ignored… until it was getting too late and Hitler went into Austria. Even then “Peace in our time” was the mantra after Munich. Willheim Reich wrote an excellent book about this before Hitler even came to power. I know all this from when I was quite young because my great grandfather’s encyclopedias were passed down to me, and when I had to write an essays about Hitler, Mussolini, etc. I was very surprised at what I read… From then on I realised the importance of reading multiple independent sources.
An alternative view… it is important to see both sides to get to the truth:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQW_Miknqt0
9.43 a.m. not p.m. What day is it?
RD 9.43am
‘Mr Snyder is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.’
That says it all. We know where he’s coming from.
‘Timothy D. Snyder (born August 18, 1969)[2] is an American historian. He is a Professor of History at Yale University, specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust. For the academic year 2013–2014, he has been the holder of the Philippe Roman Chair of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science [3] He is also affiliated with the Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen in Vienna[4] and the College of Europe in Natolin, Poland. Mr. Snyder is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_D._Snyder
If Russia swallows Ukraine, the European system is finished.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/05/opinion/russia-ukraine-austria/
What tommyrot. He probably favours this dangerous US/EU tie up, the TTIP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership