The seemingly random events in Syria over the last 2 months may after all not be that random but may have been carefully co-ordinated by US and Russia behind the scenes according to this view from El Mayadeen, an Arabic language news channel based in Beirut. It is worth reading this in full and here is a google translation of what they say.
Putin and Trump: Al-Baghdadi is yours, Al-Joulani for me and Kurds for all
While continuing to talk about the details of al-Baghdadi’s death and questioning it, the region has witnessed dramatic, rapid and sustained developments since the beginning of this month, especially after Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to the Turkish military incursion east of the Euphrates, which led to the recent Sochi agreement that changed Military and political rules of the game in the region.
It was not only these axes that defined the last three weeks, and Qsed, particularly the Kurdish wing, became a key element in the region’s equations after Washington, Moscow, its European capitals and its leader, Mazlum Abdi (Kobane), one of the pupils of Abdullah Ogalan, The leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), may soon become a new Mandela as the U.S. election approaches, in which Trump’s fortunes have increased after al-Baghdadi’s death, and bin Laden’s death in May 2011 increased Obama’s chances in the 2012 election, especially after Trump acknowledged that the operation was supported by The Kurds, which was previously declared by Mazlum Abdi even before Trump, also announced the killing of Abu Hassan al-Muhajir near the Turkish-controlled town of Jarabulus, which controls all areas around the Turkmen village of Berisha where Al-Baghdadi was killed.
Everyone knows that Turkey, which has good relations with Al-Nusra and seeks to block the Syrian army’s entry into Idlib, is present in the area extending from Jarabulus to Idlib and Afrin with high military and intelligence intensity, and through the clans and armed factions of the so-called “National Army”, which was Ankara He knew every small and large in the area, including how Al-Baghdadi came to her and where he was hiding with his wives and aides.
Here begins with the many scenarios that Moscow expects to allow U.S. aircraft to fly in Syrian airspace (along the border with Turkey), especially since Berisha, which is 6 km from the Turkish border, was seconds away from the Hmeimim base, which gave Washington’s the green light to do this operation, in exchange for an ideal, inevitable and close Russian operation, it will target Al-Joulani if he does not agree with Turkey to disband the organization, deliver heavy weapons and withdraw from Idlib in the next few days.
“It’s time to get rid of all the leaders of terrorist organizations” as a sign of the next phase to get rid of the Golani, a peace that was a war, and in response to the U.S.-Russian will that resolved the issue of Al-Baghdadi and those with him. “The operation took place after five months of coordination and joint cooperation with the Americans,” said Trump, who thanked the Kurds for his part.
This may be an indication of the role the Kurds play and will play later to get rid of all Da’esh leaders and operatives arrested in the camps they control east of the Euphrates. After Trump forced Erdogan to receive hundreds of them, he transferred others to U.S. bases in western Iraq, and may hand over the rest of them to the Syrian state after the final agreement between “Qasd” and Damascus, which would mean a U.S. withdrawal from The Syrian oil areas before the presidential elections in November next year, but before the issue of Golani and Al-Nusra is resolved.
These initiatives and possibilities are the region’s most important and exciting developments that will be characterized by the elimination of all the terrorist organizations that Obama and Hillary Clinton have established, according to Trump, despite all the great services they have provided to America, the imperialist states and Israel. The biggest beneficiary of the so-called “Arab Spring”.
The next phase may also have a dramatic shift in the common U.S.-Russian position of recognition thanks to the Kurds in eliminating ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, which could mean first putting pressure on Damascus and then on Turkey and Iraq to think of a new formula for national dialogue within each country. To recognize the Kurds with more human, cultural and political rights.
The visit of Qasd’s military commander, Mazlum Abdi, to Washington, and his meeting with President Trump and then President Putin, may be limited to the likely changes, especially if these visits are preceded by President Erdogan’s visit to Washington next month, after Trump asked him for a direct dialogue with Mazloum Abedi
Before or after these visits, Abdi may surprise everyone with a historic visit to Damascus, which was welcomed by The Mufti of Syria, Ahmed Hassoun, and by Faisal al-Meqdad. It has become clear that The Oppressed will not hesitate to make such a visit with a U.S. green light and Russian encouragement, after being sure that reconciliation with Damascus will help him to pressure Ankara and force it first to withdraw from the eastern Euphrates, and secondly to release its leader Abdullah Ogalan, who has been in prison since February 1999, and he had seven years to become a new Mandela and come out to win the Nobel Peace Prize!
The possible developments and surprises in the region, and more importantly the relationship between Moscow and Washington, and the bargaining and bargaining between them may shorten this period, after the closure of the file of political Islam, which would be a victory for President Putin, who responded to him by sending his troops to Syria in September 2015.
According to the Russian-American perception, the “secular Kurds” may replace the Islamists as the two capitals continue to account for the Arab region, which is the focus of everyone’s attention not only now but throughout history.
It was the cradle of a large number of civilizations and all religions and together was the cause of dozens and even hundreds of wars, some of them because of the so-called energy sources, and the future of water, all close to Mesopotamia (Tigris and Euphrates) and where the Kurds live after being divided by British colonial calculations. French between Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran.
Putin and Trump may now think of bringing them together, if not with mathematics and geography, but with history, culture, ethics, and humanity. This explains the U.S.-Russian coordination and cooperation to address the Syrian problem once and for all with the implications for Turkey, Iraq and the Kurds later, i.e. in the next few days, not the next few weeks, to work together to get rid of all the terrorists, who, as Chechen President Kadyrov said, They were created by America and it is their prerogative to get rid of them, this time by bargaining with Putin, of course, if America doesn’t go back to its old habit and think about using the remaining terrorists somewhere and at another time.
It is not difficult for Washington to find alternatives as long as the land of this geography is fertile for traitors and agents of all kinds, races, races and sects, and they are always material for exciting, fearsome and bloody scenarios, and the details always remain between the words of hearsay and gossip, including that al-Joulani sold Al-Baghdadi in exchange for saving his life!
If this analysis is correct it may be that the moves to ‘protect’ the oil fields in Syria may be a temporary sweetener for the Trump critics.