I am sorry Node. Not trying to be awkward but your referencing means I have to do a lot of homework to get to what you are trying to prove. Your reference April 13, 2020 at 11:29 #51685
to your post on the Italian Government is a link to an OffGuardian article and not to what was originally said by the Italian institute of Health. I have on the contrary not only sent you a reference to a primary source but have taken relevant extracts to show how the death of over 16000 cases were accounted for with a lot of clinical details. I think you would agree that such a clinical analysis is worth more than an article from a website written by a non-expert?
“I provided links to Office of National Statistics and NHS documents which prove that the UK is using the same flawed reporting system as Italy.” I see no such reference from you pointing to what you claim. However I think I know what you say as this comes from the chart of the weekly mortality figures:
“Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the numbers of deaths involving COVID-19. That is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. Previously, the number of deaths with an underlying cause of respiratory disease was published a week behind the current week. These will now be published for the current week and revised the following week. Alongside this, a new bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic. A link to the bulletin can be found in the notice box on the weekly deaths dataset page.”
So we will need to go back to the death certificate where this information arises. You point somewhere that Doctors have been advised as to how to fill death certificates with modifications to take account of Covid-19. There is no conspiracy there it is just a clarification. Death certificates may be issued on clinical grounds if other information is lacking. The fact that all those who are virus positive are all then grouped as deaths relating to Covid-19 may slightly overestimate the numbers but I cannot see how this can produce a figure of x 8.5 the actual numbers. Given that the majority of the patients admitted to hospital in this epidemic will be so admitted because they have symptoms relating to the virus then it is reasonable to take this approach. ONS also say that the figures would be revised when more information is available.
I see no smoking gun there given that at present detailed clinical studies in China and Italy have shown the extent of the problem.
As to guidance filling death certificates, here is a relevant extract
“4. How to complete the cause of death section
• COVID-19 is an acceptable direct or underlying cause of death for the purposes of completing the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death • COVID-19 is not a reason on its own to refer a death to a coroner under the Coroners and Justice Act 2009. • That COVID-19 is a notifiable disease under the Health Protection (Notification) Regulations 2010 does not mean referral to a coroner is required by virtue of its notifiable status.
“Medical practitioners are required to certify causes of death “to the best of their knowledge and belief”. Without diagnostic proof, if appropriate and to avoid delay, medical practitioners can circle ‘2’ in the MCCD (“information from post-mortem may be available later”) or tick Box B on the reverse of the MCCD for ante-mortem investigations. For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement. ”
But that is what death certificates always do, they are based on clinical judgement.
I still have not seen any solid analysis to substantiate your claim that the reported death from Covid-19 is 8.5 times that of the true figure