Reply To: SARS cov2 and Covid 19


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#64562
Clark

SA, I hope this new treatment does work because the recent rise in the seven-day average death curve is steeper than ever before.

Updating my earlier prediction (#64441 above) with the latest seven day averages:

Current case numbers are now at least 2.34* times higher than reached before the November restrictions caused them to fall, so I predict that the death rate must rise to at least 2.34 times its averaged November peak, ie. over 1138 deaths per day, on average.

* 59,344 ÷ 25,331 = ~2.34
2.34 x 486 = ~1139

This figure is locked in by the pattern we have seen so far, even if infections stop rising immediately, so only new treatments, or depletion of the proportion vulnerable could change it. I suspect it’s an underestimate anyway.