Reply To: SARSCoV2 “outbreak” on isle of Barra in Scotland


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#65327
Clark

When restrictions are imposed, it pushes down the R-t numbers of all infectious respiratory viruses. The lockdown restrictions have pushed the R-t for ‘flu to well below 1, so ‘flu is strongly suppressed this year. But SARS-CoV-2’s R-zero is higher than ‘flu’s, so its R-t doesn’t get pushed as low as ‘flu’s.

The social restrictions are working; check these graphs, and click the “7-day moving average” box to smooth out the effect of weekends on the collection of statistics. Infections have just started falling quite fast. The death rate is still rising because lots of people were infected about a couple of weeks ago, but it’s rising a bit slower than it was and within a week it should be falling too.