Ukraine (Date: Nov. 2023)


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  • #94345 Reply
    Tatyana

      Additional information on the downed plane with Ukrainian prisoners of war was published today by the Investigative Committee.

      “When examining the crash site, experts found 116 fragments of the bodies and mechanisms of two missiles with inscriptions and markings in English. The following markings were found on the collected parts:

      “ASSY 11455748”, “SN740179”, “ASSY 11461343”, “SN740206”, “ASSY 11461865”, “SN740207”, “Raytheon”, “CONFIDENTIAL classified by PATRIOT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION GUIDE DATED: 9/22/83 ADDENDA DATED 11/28/83 8/8/84 CONTRACT NO/DAAH01-86C-A018”, а также “18876 ASSY”, “MARTIN MARIETA” и “10253043-39 02 S/N 80025”.

      The Investigative Committee reports that an anti-aircraft guided missile MIM-104A from the Patriot complex was used to destroy the aircraft.


      I listened to the press-conference which Ukrainians arranged for the relatives of those PoW men. There were questions, unanswered so far, why the regime of silence was not observed, which is usually arranged during the exchange of prisoners and was undoubtedly applied that day too.

      #94350 Reply
      Jack

        ICJ rejects most of Ukraine’s ‘terrorism’ case against Russia
        Kyiv had accused Moscow of being a ‘terrorist’ state and claimed it funded separatists in eastern Ukraine.

        https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/31/icj-rejects-most-of-ukraines-terrorism-case-against-russia

        …although much based on technicalities it seems:

        The court added that only cash transfers could be considered as support for alleged “terrorist” groups under the terms of the international convention on terrorism financing.

        This “does not include the means used to commit acts of terrorism, including weapons or training camps”, the court ruled on Wednesday.

        #94354 Reply
        Tatyana

          Good point, Jack. Did the court admit that Russia supplied weapons and trained terrorists? Or is it just a matter of wording?
          Or, is the point here is that many countries provide weapons and train people who commit acts of terrorism? Like, for example, the Azov men? Or, some states may give an explosive device to Daria Trepova, to kill Tatarsky? Or, the explosive device that killed Daria Dugina? Or, for example, a state committed to establishing training camps for “moderate rebels” somewhere in the Middle East could be found to be a sponsor of terrorism? And now is an inconvenient time to recognize such states as sponsors of terrorism?
          It is absurd, of course, that sending money is considered sponsoring terrorism, but sending weapons and training is not. But as I see it, the task of the court is to be strictly committed to the letter of the law, and I also see that many can benefit from such rules of the game.

          #94357 Reply
          Jack

            Yes that is some great questions actually Tatyana. I have no further answer that what you say is likely true.

            In other “news”:
            EU opposes Ukraine truce – Borrell
            The bloc’s chief diplomat has called for more weapons for Kiev and further sanctions on Moscow

            https://swentr.site/news/591567-eu-rejects-ukraine-ceasefire/

            How could one be against a truce?? Thosuands of people killed, maimed for no reason, how can the EU still be so brainwashed to believe that Ukraine is about to win?!

            Does not this say anything to Borell? That dictator Zelensky now sack his critical top general?
            Zelensky to fire top general this week – CNN
            https://swentr.site/russia/591652-zelensky-to-fire-zaluzhny/

            Is it not interesting also how just days ago all these talk about Zelensky kicking this general out of office, that that was russian disinformation? Laughable!

            #94363 Reply
            AG

              Moon of Alabama

              “The Power Scuffle Continues
              The scuffle in Kiev over replacing the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valeri Zaluzny continues.
              CNN reports that he will be fired within the next 48 hours.”

              https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/02/ukraine-the-power-scuffle-continues.html#more

              #94365 Reply
              Tatyana

                Ru-news say that Zaluzhny is popular among the population and poses a threat to Zelensky in the upcoming elections. So Ze tried to exile him to another country as Ukraine’s ambassador, and give Budanov the honor of commander-in-chief. The latter refused, and there were no others willing either; as they say, no one wants to lead an army on the eve of defeat

                #94374 Reply
                Jack

                  Allegedly, Ukraine have once agains manage to strike a russian warship:
                  Video https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1753036969976709227

                  To be honest all these attacks against Russia while Russia do nothing in respone is what cause west to believe Ukraine have a chance to win.

                  Come on, it is 2024, almost 2 year into the war and Russia have still not manage to secure their warship-armada from attacks??
                  Sometimes it feels like there is no one at work at the russian side of the war. Very very odd strategy/war.

                  #94382 Reply
                  ET

                    The ICJ has published online a 32 page summary of the judgements in the case brought by Ukraine against Russia which can be found here.

                    It documents how all the various votes went as well as documenting the dissenting opinion further down the document.

                    #94385 Reply
                    AG

                      A rather rare item: Interview with Karaganov on a major alternative German news site, however of Hungarian origin:

                      “Interview with security expert Karaganov: USA would sacrifice Europe without hesitation”
                      https://www-nachdenkseiten-de.translate.goog/?p=110433&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

                      “Russian security expert Sergei Karaganov (71) caused a stir in the summer of 2023 with statements about possible nuclear strikes by Russia against the West. This led to heated discussions inside and outside Russia. The Hungarian foreign journalist and editor-in-chief of the Moszkvatér portal Gábor Stier spoke to him about the Russia-Ukraine war, the transformation of the world and the relationship between Russia and Europe. Éva Péli translated the text into German.”

                      #94389 Reply
                      AG

                        3-part-commentary on naked capitalism:
                        “Ukraine: Breakthrough on All Fronts Ahead of Schedule” (breakthrough by Russia not Ukraine)

                        https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/ukraine-breakthrough-on-all-fronts-ahead-of-schedule.html

                        1) Intro by Yves Smith
                        2) John Helmer
                        3) What does the offensive of Russian troops in the Kharkov region mean?
                        By Yevgeny Krutikov

                        #94410 Reply
                        AG

                          To document this asshole behaviour:

                          Oleksandra Matviichuk who received the most unnecessary award on this planet, the Nobel Peace Prize, in an interview doing what?

                          Right, calling for war. As she has been doing for years. It´s just sick.

                          Jean-Paul Sartre when receiving his Nobel Prize declined the money (a decision many years later he wanted to reverse) – on the same basis it should be possible to cancel her award (and abolish the entire Committee).

                          Oleksandra Matwijtschuk: Calling for negotiations with Russia is wishful thinking
                          In an interview, the Ukrainian human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner talks about Germany’s role in the war and explains why she rejects negotiations with Russia.”

                          Febr. 3rd. 2024
                          https://archive.is/ITPdw

                          p.s. I find it fascinating that almost every US-affiliated UKR female public person looks a bit like a model. Very very very woke and emancipated indeed.

                          #94412 Reply
                          AG

                            Good personal account by one of the last German reporters in RU, Ulrich Heyden, who however has beend suspended by one the papers he had been reporting for early 2022 after readers had complained.

                            By now this is all ancient history.

                            “My left-wing friends in Germany”
                            https://overton-magazin.de/buchempfehlungen/meine-linken-freunde-in-deutschland/

                            last paragraph:

                            “At some point – I hope – the Germans will realize that the major German media are lying to them and that there is no democratic system in Ukraine that needs to be supported. How can a country be a democracy in which all opposition media and opposition parties are banned, in which right-wing extremists can set fire to a trade union building with impunity and attack and even murder dissidents in the street? What does it have to do with democracy and proximity to Europe when streets and squares in Ukraine are named after Hitler collaborators Stepan Bandera and Roman Shuchevich? And what’s democratic about it if peace negotiations with Russia were banned by law? At some point, people in Germany will hopefully realize that it is wrong to supply weapons to a country like Ukraine.”

                            #94421 Reply
                            AG

                              TATYANA

                              re: Poland and WMDs

                              The closest what I could find are prospective mere speculations.

                              Hans Kristensen in the summer 2023 mentioned that US WMDs stationed in GB could be transfered to Poland however there was no sign that such a transfer was at hand:

                              https://fas.org/publication/increasing-evidence-that-the-us-air-forces-nuclear-mission-may-be-returning-to-uk-soil/

                              At about the same time Dmitry Stefanovich in Moscow speculated about similiar possible transfers. Not more.

                              Though there is always a tiny uncertainty about the exact status of WMDs sometimes, there seems to be no real evidence to this now. E.g. with Kaliningrad silos last fall, the last time I checked, there was uncertainty whether there were warheads or not and in what state.

                              Similiar was true for modernization of US-nukes at the European vaults. It had been announced by the US well before, to take place around late 2022/early 2023. But the exact date was not given.

                              These locations are apparently unchanged and thus do not include Poland. “Only” the usual West European NATO spots and Turkey.

                              What is more cause for concern are the Polish “Aegis Ashore” positions installed against RU ICBMs.
                              If those could as well be re-fitted into attack missiles like the land-based in Romania I don´t know.

                              Unfortunately it is very difficult to find sources that are not biased against RU. It´s amazing how ideolgocially deformed this discourse is despite being such a sensitive matter. You find almost no Western scholar/scientists who would not regard RU as the villain.

                              The fact that I know about the US aggressiveness on this matter is only due to private conversations with people who were involved in these affairs and know about the internal discussions.
                              But those are completely sealed off from Western media.

                              And worse, Western media don´t even want to hear it.

                              The fact that the US is actually not only capable to carry out first strikes but also has plans to use their advantage (which despite hyper-sonic hype probably still is the case) and people in Washington thinking about these things, by our MSM would be regarded as a fairy-tale or Russian fabrication.

                              #94424 Reply
                              Tatyana

                                Why are you surprised? Europe accused a certain nation of drinking the blood of Christian babies. And many eagerly supported this.

                                Well, on our side there is news about Macron’s statement about providing their nuclear arsenal to the EU. And Britain’s proposal to NATO to send an expeditionary force to Ukraine.
                                So, here we have more and more people convinced that Putin is right and undoubtedly he will collect many votes in the upcoming elections. We really are not at war with Ukraine, but with NATO.
                                Look above, Jack is surprised how Ukraine is capable of causing damage to Russian ships. I think that Ukraine is not capable of this, but NATO, with all this equipment, satellite reconnaissance, mercenaries, advisers and other help, is quite capable. And this, of course, is a threat to us, and we will, of course, counter it.

                                #94435 Reply
                                Jack

                                  Odd admission by Poland

                                  Crimea is historically Russian – Polish president

                                  “I don’t know if [Ukraine] will regain Crimea, but I believe it will regain Donetsk and Lugansk,” he stated, referring to the two republics that broke off Ukraine in 2014 and joined Russia after referendums in late 2022. Crimea, however, “is a special place,” including for “historical reasons,” the Polish president argued.

                                  https://swentr.site/news/591784-duda-historically-russian-crimea/

                                  If Ukraine were to enter either Crimea or Donetsk, Luhansk horrific ethnic cleansing hunt and round-ups would occur against the ethnic russian citizens living there.

                                  #94438 Reply
                                  AG

                                    JACK
                                    As I understand the serious reports on the war, “regaining Donetsk and Lugansk” is of course complete bullshit.
                                    If any logic behind that statement, it´s the usual counter-factual PR-talk.

                                    May be it was also a reaction to now Putin in fact repeating statements made by Medvedev 1 year ago re: expanding RU-controlled areas of UKR. The RU are on the move. Everyone knows this.

                                    So far apparently the secret cease-fire talks between both sides´ military had no result and in the light of the mad jingoist bullshit behaviour of the EU and the FRG (50 bn.) and the idiotic flaring up of demands for an EU-bomb (or TATYANA mentioning Macron´s hair-raising suggestions of French WMDs) the Polish needed to say something too.

                                    And the Russians are doing what they have been doing so far.

                                    #94443 Reply
                                    AG

                                      Gordon Hahn with an outlook, as usual with him, gloomy. But listening to all kinds of views is part of this I guess:

                                      https://gordonhahn.com/2024/02/02/russian-strategic-transformation-in-ukraine-from-aggressive-attrition-to-attrit-and-advance/

                                      “Russian Strategic Transformation in Ukraine: From ‘Aggressive Attrition’ to ‘Attrit and Advance’?”
                                      it ends with this speculative forecast

                                      “(…)
                                      Should they (UKR) persist in rejecting negotiations, then the Russian advance now seems destined to end no sooner than the Dniepr River and the flight, fall, or breakdown of the Maidan regime and perhaps the end of a Ukrainian presence east of the Dniepr.

                                      This is unlikely to be an end of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. It will enter an new, perhaps intermittent perhaps or short-term hybrid phase. From then on, rump Ukraine, infused with NATO advisors and troops and burgeoning with NATO weapons, will sponsor partisan and sabotage activities in the east. Hopefully, this phase of semi-frozen conflict will lead years down the road to a non-military resolution of this conflict. The risk inherent in this hopeful, if not wishful thinking becomes apparent if we turn our eyes to the south at Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, Lebanon, and the Middle East writ large. Thus, before or after the beginning of a new hybrid phrase, Odessa, Transnistria, Belarus or one of the Baltic states may become a flash point that ignites a full-scale NATO-Russian War for which some in Western corridors of power seem to long.
                                      (…)”.

                                      #94444 Reply
                                      Tatyana

                                        AG, is it true that Pizdorius is getting more and more popular, and that German media use ‘kriegstüchtig’ word more and more often?

                                        #94446 Reply
                                        AG

                                          Tatyana

                                          Both are part of a stupid PR-campaign.

                                          As Russian you might not get a really good picture of what is going on here in Germany, because even in Germany we do not get a decent picture through our own media since they are constantly lying or telling half-truths or exaggerating.
                                          They have become instruments of state propaganda.

                                          So its all sorta schizophrenic. Because what you read is not really what many think and feel.

                                          “Cunt”orius is just the war minister. And since we are at war the war minister had an interim high in polls. But that will fade away at some point.

                                          The “kriegstüchtig” of course might become an underlying demand, lingering somewhere in public discourse if Europe indeed will spend more money on “defense”.

                                          But people today definitely don´t want to go to the army. Nor militarize. The spending on UKR so far has not yet impaired enough peoples´ finances. When that happens things can change abruptly.

                                          Unlike with Russia for Europeans the war in Ukraine is more or less a computer game. Just like Iraq 1991 and all wars since, caused by the West.

                                          Except for Yugoslavia, Europeans have no war experience. Keep that in mind.

                                          This is all very odd: On the one hand we experience this public madness which in such fervor is new.
                                          On the other, news and counternews are out within seconds. It´s difficult to hold up lies in a way that the people will constantly believe in them the old way.

                                          The media report them. But as well do alternative sources. And the truth is out there.
                                          (Compare to Vietnam. It took 15 years until protests started to emerge.)

                                          One question is how this will or will not change with the new EU Digital Services Act and NATO allegedly building up.
                                          One is certain, history is never written in advance.
                                          That´s important to remember when reading about “Cunt”orius and all the other nonsense.

                                          Read what you can. But please don´t take our news too seriously. First and foremost: News is a business. And the news business is in serious crisis. And they do all kinds of shitty stuff to sell their poduct.
                                          And to them it doesn´t matter if it´s a war or cats on a tree.

                                          #94447 Reply
                                          AG

                                            TATYANA

                                            Most likely the sources of the idiotic German “kriegstüchtig” warmongering are Sweden and Denmark, trumpeted by British propaganda unit RUSI and confirmed by German officials.

                                            All of thise is naturally total conincidence weeks after the biggest NATO excercise “Steadfast Defender” was announced.

                                            On Jan. 9th the Danish Defense Committee published an MPs question.

                                            (machine transl. a bit awkward, sry.)

                                            pdf download of Danish original:
                                            https://www.ft.dk/samling/20231/almdel/fou/spm/76/svar/2018493/2818229.pdf

                                            “(…)
                                            “The Defense Committee of the Danish Parliament
                                            Christiansborg

                                            Member of the Folketing Alex Ahrendtsen (DF) has the following on January 9, 2024
                                            Question No. 76 was asked, which is hereby answered.

                                            Can the Minister explain what color Bornholm is in the Swedish scenario,
                                            the Z. The TV2 article “Here Sweden can be attacked first” was published on January 9th.
                                            January 2024 published on tv2.dk 8:42 a.m., where Skåne, Blekinge and Gotland are red
                                            are marked and therefore most at risk?

                                            Answer:
                                            It is the Defense Intelligence Service (FE) that investigates the threat to Denmark
                                            assesses foreign actors.

                                            “FE currently considers it unlikely that Russia will enter into a military conflict wants to trigger with NATO. FE therefore assumes that currently neither Bornholm poses a military threat to other parts of the Commonwealth consists.

                                            FE assumes that Finland’s NATO membership and the expected Sweden’s membership affects Russia’s strategic position in the Baltic Sea region have weakened. In the short term, Russia will not be able to enter the Baltic Sea region to supply troops and material to an extent that the land military Restores superiority in the region that Russia had invaded Ukraine had. However, Russia is in the process of comprehensively military rearmament, which also includes the stationing of new units in the Baltic Sea region and in the northwest of the country.

                                            It is likely that Russia’s willingness to take risks towards NATO countries will increase with this troop increase. Russia will most likely continue to be careful to avoid its military Activities trigger NATO Article 5. However, it is also very likely that Russia intends to use its military means to attack NATO countries below the Article 5 threshold.

                                            Among other things, Russia can use its military capabilities to put pressure on individuals countries through actions that violate existing agreements and international rules violated, but below the war threshold. This applies, for example, to The Injury national territorial borders by military aircraft or warships or the use of sonar etc. but can also include larger troop deployments along national borders or exercise activities include restrictions on Western military activities in international waters.”

                                            Best regards
                                            Troels Lund Poulsen”
                                            (…)”

                                            Our friends from British RUSI quoting undisclosed Swedish threat assessments:
                                            “NATO Societies Must be Ready for War”
                                            26.1.2024
                                            https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nato-societies-must-be-ready-war

                                            e.g. (for hyperlinks see original)

                                            “Earlier this month, Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin acknowledged to a defence conference that ‘there could be war in Sweden’. The Swedish Commander-in-Chief, General Micael Bydén, went further, declaring that all Swedes needed to ‘prepare for war’. While these comments received some criticism for being alarmist, Sweden operates a total defence model, and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency has for many years published a brochure for its citizens titled ‘If Crisis or War comes’. Last week, Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee and the Alliance’s most senior military officer, warned that NATO could be at war with Russia within 20 years, which would require many civilians having to be mobilised to fight. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius assessed that his country needed between five to eight years to be ready for war, and a leaked German military planning scenario worked on the assumption of hostilities opening with Russia as early as 2025.”

                                            Interesting final phrase from EURONEWS on the German source, link in the above:

                                            “The leaking of Germany’s plan comes only days after Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin warned citizens that their country might soon face the prospect of war.”

                                            BBC with the Swedish statement:
                                            “Swedish alarm after defence chiefs’ war warning”
                                            10.1.2024
                                            https://archive.is/OPaqY

                                            #94451 Reply
                                            AG

                                              connected since it´s subject of the current PR, see above post

                                              JACOBIN on why conscript armies are outdated:

                                              “No, We Don’t Need Conscript Armies

                                              By Nathan Akehurst

                                              The head of the British Army and Germany’s defense minister have each recently called for their countries to prepare to be on a war footing. Their call for mass mobilization is deeply unpopular — and at odds with the realities of modern warfare.”

                                              https://jacobin.com/2024/02/military-conscription-neoliberalism-militarism-russia
                                              archived:
                                              https://archive.is/1A3gO

                                              #94453 Reply
                                              AG

                                                Germany and NATO infrastructure in further preparation

                                                “Prepare for war (I)
                                                For the first time since the Cold War, German military officials are developing a concrete operational plan for military operations on German soil in the event of a war with Russia. According to NATO plans, Germany is the hub for the move east.”

                                                https://archive.is/6oLyi

                                                “German military officials have been developing concrete plans for military operations on German soil since last spring. The Territorial Command of the Bundeswehr is responsible for working on the “Operations Plan for Germany”. The Bundeswehr explains that its “essential task” is to “ensure the planned deployment” – essentially against Russia – and to “ensure the supply of allied and own armed forces in the hub of Germany.” NATO’s “demands from Germany” as the hub of a transatlantic push towards the East were the “central influencing factor in the creation” of the operational plan. The federal government has been working on expanding trans-European “military mobility” for years. The latest initiative is a recently signed declaration of intent by the Netherlands, Poland and Germany, which together want to build a “model corridor” for troop transfers to NATO’s eastern flank. As a “central transit nation,” the expansion of “military mobility” is of “strategic importance,” says Parliamentary State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense Siemtje Möller.”

                                                #94462 Reply
                                                AG

                                                  re: peace negotiations 2022:

                                                  THE DURAN here among others with Glenn Diesen.
                                                  https://theduran.com/deceiving-the-public-about-our-wars-lt-col-daniel-davis-alexander-mercouris-glenn-diesen/

                                                  Diesen in TC: 20:00+ again says that:

                                                  On February 25th 2022 on the homepage of the Kiev government office it was officially stated that RU had suggested peace talks to UKR. On 27th it was stated that they were in fact engaged in such talks.

                                                  On the same day Ned Price in the WH totally opposed such an idea.
                                                  In hindsight there should be not the slightest doubt that the US and NATO would never ever engage in peace talks.

                                                  Also of interest, Col. Daniel Davis (purely military mind) around TC 33:00+ speaks about a British report that had confirmed that all 200,000 men of the AFU at the eve of the war, had eventually been either killed or wounded.

                                                  #94467 Reply
                                                  Jack

                                                    Hilarious but not surprising, Sweden, one of the investigating nations of the Nordstream blast seek to shelve the investigation altogether!

                                                    Swedish Nord Stream investigation ‘could be shelved on Wednesday’
                                                    https://www.thelocal.se/20240206/swedish-nordstream-investigation-to-be-shelved-on-wednesday

                                                    Of course, finding out that it was the americans (or the ukrainians) that was behind it, Sweden will simply put a lid on the case altogether. Not suspicious at all.
                                                    Imagine if this was Russia and a state investigation on this or that event was stopped – imageine the reaction from the west, oh those corrupt russians try to cover up the truth!.

                                                    Well, look who is covering up the truth now.

                                                    #94469 Reply
                                                    Tatyana

                                                      Tucker Carlson visits Moscow and announces he is here to interview Putin
                                                      https://tuckercarlson.com/why-were-in-moscow/
                                                      Tucker says Elon Musk promised to put the interview on Twitter/X

                                                      I tried to get it on YouTube, and found Russian Translation of the announcement with English subtitles
                                                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CdCMEkQoEw

                                                      and The Telegraph 1 and a half minute version out of 4 and a half
                                                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU5RNryLKFU
                                                      Guess what is missing on the Telegraph?

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                                                    Reply To: Ukraine (Date: Nov. 2023)
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