This post initially included a corridor photo which was fake. My fault, but that made no difference at all to the argument.
It will definitely be good if the war in Ukraine draws to a close. Too many have died or been maimed, too many civilian assets have been destroyed. However the cynicism with which the conclusion of the war is being driven is quite extraordinary.
I am not sure there has been a sight in modern history equivalent to the way Europe’s “leaders” were pictured in the White House.
This is not an accident. There really is a craft to diplomacy; many countries in the world have foreign services consisting largely of people who have a degree in it. I have personally organised two state visits for the former Queen as well as head of government visits.
These things follow a careful choreography and an absolutely key part of that is to present a picture of equal status between state parties. Who will enter first, whether there will be a handshake, the precise spot where the handshake will happen, the setting of the table they meet around, flags of equal size, all that is plotted in great detail. It is fundamental to the job.
If I had put Robin Cook, for example, in a position where he was seated on a chair in front of an interlocutor enthroned behind a desk, I would have received a very fierce bollocking indeed. Yet here we have European Heads of State and EU leaders seated before a desk in the Oval Office.
This is just unthinkable to anybody familiar with the craft of diplomacy. I realise you don’t have to be a diplomat to feel there is something wrong in this picture: but you are probably not quite as stunned as I am.
The unequal interpersonal relationships are just the immediate physical manifestation of Trump’s instinctive ability to maximise the brutality of realpolitik. The deal which is being put together to end the war in Ukraine is a remarkable testimony to Trump’s ability to seize economic advantage for the USA, or at least for the class of people in the USA he cares about.
Trump’s Presidency is marked by an undisguised willingness to leverage the massive economic advantages which come from possessing the world’s reserve currency, which means you can just invent money to purchase any good you want from another country, the economy of which becomes addicted to this “cash” flow.
Trump’s trade war has displayed an ability to force other states to make enormous concessions, including reinvesting hundreds of billions of dollars back into US industry, rather than face tariffs which would make it harder to give up their goods as tribute to the USA in return for token dollars.
The reserve currency is essentially a confidence trick. It always works, if and only if the world believes in it. The world was starting to lose its faith in the power of the dollar, and Trump was smart enough to know that the way to maintain a confidence trick is to double down and be still more assertive.
Trump has undoubtedly prolonged, at least a little, American economic supremacy.
The Ukraine deal is a related trick. Part of the “guarantee” of Ukraine’s security is that the Europeans will purchase US $100 billion worth of weapons from US arms manufacturers in order to give said weapons to Ukraine.
It is not planned that any European weapons will be in the deal or that the USA will finance any weapons. A senior FCDO source tells me that Keir Starmer is saying the UK will put “well over” £10 billion into the pot to buy US weapons for Ukraine.
The hope on the European side is that they will be able to pay for this merchant-of-death bonanza with stolen Russian money – assets seized under sanctions. There are two obstacles to this. The first is the international courts, which are most unlikely to agree. The second is Vladimir Putin.
I have never bought in to the notion that Russia is militarily infallible and about to triumph quickly and simply. I have certainly never accepted the nonsensical propaganda that the initial disastrous Russian strike at Kiev was just a ruse or feint.
But Russia is indeed now winning and was always going ultimately to prevail on the battlefield. The delusional rhetoric of European leaders over the last few weeks, including from Keir Starmer, attempted to ignore this obvious reality.
Ukraine’s lines in Donetsk are now so untenable that Putin is able to attempt to insist on being given territory he has not conquered yet, because everybody knows that conquest is both unstoppable and imminent.
This is a realpolitik as hard as Trump’s.
The team Trump took to Alaska had substantially more officials connected with commercial policy than with military or foreign policy, and we should not underestimate the extent to which this attempt at agreement is cash driven.
Putin, who is winning the war, will insist on the lifting of economic sanctions and is simply not going to agree to US weapons being purchased for Ukraine by the Europeans with Russian money.
As support for the Ukrainian military is an essential part of the mooted “security guarantee” structure – as opposed to mutual defence commitment – funding will have to be found. This despite Rachel Reeves’s entire philosophy being to please the money markets by austerity.
My FCDO source tells me that plan B, for when the idea of paying with Russian money fails, is for the private financing of the UK’s purchase of US weapons for Ukraine. This has been an important point of preparation.
Just as with the aircraft flying out of Brize Norton, the idea is that a private equity consortium would finance the purchase of the weapons for Ukraine, with repayment by the UK over a twenty-year period.
This means that £10 billion of weaponry would eventually cost the UK about £38 billion. Yes, you read that right. Blackrock and Trump himself are among a variety of investors who would be brought in to the scheme as financiers.
There is of course no industry like the weapons industry for corruption: backhanders, directorships, service contracts to front companies, post-retirement jobs. Politicians love the defence industry.
That US $100 billion for weapons will provide lots of lovely pork for absolutely everybody in the picture. Look at the wealth of Tony Blair. Come back to me in ten years’ time and discuss what personal wealth was eventually amassed by each of the people in this photo.
Zelensky is probably the biggest profiteer of all (though he also has bosses to pay off).
I explain in specific detail in both my memoirs – Murder in Samarkand and The Catholic Orangemen of Togo – that international affairs is always driven not only by control of natural resources, but by the corrupt interest of politicians in the companies that acquire them.
That I found first-hand true for oil and gas in Uzbekistan and for rutile and diamonds in Sierra Leone.
With Trump, these background motivations step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. So here we have a war which appears, thank goodness, to be drawing to a close, but on the basis of overtly commercial deals.
I expect those European leaders will cheer up. Cash can buy a lot of indignity.
As I have stated frequently, it was and is simply impossible for Ukraine to recover all of its territory of 1991, without a NATO-fuelled war being waged on a scale that would have been certain to escalate to nuclear conflagration.
There will now be border adjustments, be they de facto or also de jure, with the integration of some Russian speaking areas of Eastern Ukraine into Russia, including Crimea and at least the large majority of the Donbass.
It is simply a statement of fact that there had never existed a Ukrainian state prior to 1991, and that there had never been any state with anything like the borders of 1991 Ukraine. I don’t know why people find incontrovertible historical truth so offensive.
We are going to have a modestly smaller, Western-aligned Ukraine. That seems to me something those Ukrainians who want to be Western-aligned ought to be celebrating. The percentage of the land area of Ukraine likely to be retained by Russia – something under 20% – is a fair approximation to the percentage of the Ukrainian population who would prefer to actually be Russian.
If the putative peace deal can be delivered, it will undoubtedly be better than continuing war. It will be slightly less advantageous to Ukrainian nationalists than the deal that was available in Turkey over two years ago, but NATO vetoed.
Hopefully Ukrainians have noted that sacrificing an entire generation as cannon fodder for NATO is not a good policy.
European leaders are still attempting to strut their stuff by threatening Putin with further sanctions if a deal is not reached. This simply does not work; Moscow is fine. It in no way counters the military advantage now enjoyed by Putin.
I should like to believe that peace in Ukraine might lead to a reduction in Russophobic hysteria across Europe. But the truth is, that cold-war style scaremongering is really all these failing European leaders have with which to terrify and control their disgruntled and impoverished populace at present.
They will, however, be ever less convincing.
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Putin said not long ago….
“I assure you, Trump, with his character and persistence, will restore order quite quickly. And all of them, you’ll see, soon all of them will stand at the master’s feet and gently wag their tails,” Putin argued.
European leaders will ‘wag tails’ for Trump – Putin – RT, Feb 2 2025
Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
“This is beyond parody: not only is the EU doing virtually nothing to escape the protection racket it’s under with the US, it’s now supposed to pay for Ukraine’s…
All the more absurd when one considers that NATO expansion – the institutionalization of this protection racket – was the primary catalyst for this conflict”.
Absurd indeed, the US led NATO expansion into Ukraine created the provocation, then the Ukrainian bombardment of the Dombass the physical necessity of Russia to intervene, now it is all coming unstuck, and the US gambit has failed, the US are backing out to leave Europeans holding the expensive tar baby. Trump as a New York property developer probably does use the phrase with regard to the Euro vassals…”never give a sucker an even break”.
The writing was already on the wall when Biden blew up Germany’s industrial economy and standard of living and they rewarded him with their highest national honour. The abject subjection is a desperate effort to stop the Americans from pivoting to Asia and keep them tied to an ever more irrelevant continent. European and British elites cannot stomach the reality that world history is moving on without them.
In a comment up thread I indicated that Halford Makinder in his ‘Heartland’ theory thought Ukraine within the US orbit was the key to control Eurasia, Breszinski, Carters Nat Sec Advisor agreed and authored this tome in 1997 ‘The Grand Chessboard’ The Biden administration full of Neocons whose raison d’être is US hegemony.
Breszinski in The Grand Chessboard (1997):
Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south.
However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.
There’s an even worse photo on the BBC News web-site today, under the “War in Ukraine” tab. The European leaders looking like they’re being lectured to by the headmaster, which I suppose they are. See here …
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjeynw8jppdo
The Euro leadership are trying to fool Trump into believing they are an ineffective collection of morons, i.e. they are mimicking that phrase ‘walk softly and carry a big shtick’, a comic routine, proving how ridiculous they are. On the other hand nobody should underestimate how tough and vicious a street fighter Keir Starmer can be. /S Here at 18.21 is how he assaults a punch bag. He is our next small white hope. What a pillock.
https://youtu.be/pXWnnFP7YYo?t=1102
Here are a few tips from Putin… You do not get to be leader of the Russian Federation without having brains and a backbone, in this clip he has just berated the bosses of a company for its failings
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZrEYfuU6fg
Derispaska is actually one of the richest oligarchs in Russia and here Putin treats him like a naughty schoolboy.
I watched it so many times and still 😀.
” Give me the pen back”😂
Check out the piccy.
“We were in court today after being charged for hanging this banner opposite Labour HQ. Pleaded not guilty. Trial in January ”
https://nitter.poast.org/ByDonkeys/status/1958135136194572417#m
Sanctions:
I can see that Trump will end the US sanctions against RU, and that UK will probably fall in line and its.
However, what would be the incentive for the EU member states to end their sanctions, when it seems they’re mostly set on maintaining them?
The one niggle the EU may have for maintaining sanctions would be if it requires unanimity, given that Hungary (and possibly another) seem reluctant to maintain them.
The Russians have fully grasped that they cannot trust the USA and its allies; they will make the best of a bad job. Odd how the UK & EU states are willing to trash their own countries just to continue the attempt to destabilize the Russian Federation. What is driving this? The British Empire never really went away, it just morphed into a new form where it is no longer necessary to colonize with a resident army yet it still controls world resources by less obvious means.
fwiw John Mearsheimer after an appearance on DEMOCRACY NOW confirms my doubts:
“(…)
On 19 August 2025, I was on “Democracy Now!” with Amy Goodman talking about Ukraine. There was a second guest, Denys Pilash, a Ukrainian political scientist, who was speaking from Kyiv. We both agreed that the Alaska summit did not bring us any closer to either a ceasefire or a negotiated peace settlement. But otherwise, there was deep disagreement between the two of us on how to think about the Ukraine war, especially regarding how to move forward. My sense from listening to Mr. Pilash — who is in no mood to compromise with Russia on any issue — is that it is virtually impossible to see how Russia and Ukraine will agree to settle this war diplomatically, and therefore it will be settled on the battlefield. I hope I am wrong, but I cannot tell myself a plausible story that ends with a genuine peace agreement.
(…)”
video is 32 min.
https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/ukraine-sticks-to-its-guns
Mods,
Sorry to be a pain but I posted a reply to Tatyana in her Crimea thread in the discussion forum about an hour ago and it hasn’t appeared yet. Is this normal?
—
[ Mod: Yes, that does happen occasionally. The Cloudflare firewall sometimes prevents the message from reaching our blog server. It’s not obvious how to balance the settings optimally to keep the spam bots out. The system administrator is investigating the problem.
In the meantime, it’s best to take clipboard copy of anything you’re about to submit, so that you can repost easily without having to write it all over again. ]
My 2 cents: If it doesn´t appear after the verification just do it again. Works for me.
Re European leaders and their role in the conflict
I translated a piece of interview, I’ll link the source on Picabu because I cannot find it on YouTube
https://pikabu.ru/story/arestovich_pro_evropeyskikh_soyuznikov_13091895
Alexey Arestovych, chief Ukrainian propagandist.
Previously I gave my opinion on him. Shortly, the guy is truly intellectual, well and diversely educated, has experience of manipulating people and good knowledge of human psychology.
That’s what he says about Europeans:
Arestovych:
– There are allies, and there are “allies”. There are North Koreans. They are allies, they came to defend the territory of an ally, the Russian Federation, they took part in the battles in the Kursk region. Well, if you are allies, then you have to fight together, right?
And the Western “allies”, as we often call them in Ukraine, are they allies?
Just on the eve of the decisive summit, they are issuing one statement after another: We will not send soldiers to Ukraine, we will not send soldiers to Ukraine, British German French soldiers will not fight for Ukraine, only after a ceasefire is established *they can be there*.
They, the Europeans, always find the same solution: Let Trump arrest Putin, launch a nuclear strike on Moscow and hand over the American army to Syrsky for control. It’s very simple! Why haven’t they done this yet? This is, as these Ukrainian bloggers write, an obvious decision that will have to be made sooner or later. They have adopted this formulation.
Host:
– You said that the US have lost the proxy war with Russia. It seems that Europe is entering this lost war and really wants to lose it with all its might, too.
Arestovych:
– Because war solves a lot of issues!
Firstly, they have suppressed their right-wingers, who flirted with Putin. Maintained the left-of-center trend in Europe. This is important. The right won. They won in nine countries, the European bastards. It was necessary, at least at the level of the Euro-bureaucracy.
Secondly, military orders. There in Europe, construction sites *have appeared* everywhere, budgets have been increased, everyone is making money. They are busy with some kind of army there. Basically, it’s about money. They demonstrate: we are world politics here, we are also important, we are that weight that if it gets to that very … They have a negotiating position created …
And now do you suddenly want to stop the war? What about military orders? What about the insidious Putin, who if not today, then tomorrow for sure will seize Paris and rape the Eiffel Tower? What about the … what’s it called … nice coins? What about the Right, who are going to insidiously collude with Putin?
Such songs not to be sung, we don’t need this. Let the war continue. We need to develop our military industry and become stronger by 2030. And let the Ukrainians die a little for this. Just a little bit, just a little bit more, just five more years.
—
As I said above, the man has brains. I would listen to his opinions if he didn’t have one huge moral flaw – instead of calling to stop the war crimes commited by Ukrainian soldiers, Arestovich publicly advised to not publish videos of that, so that the Ukrainian army would look like Warriors of Light in the eyes of Europeans.
Quite extraordinary that the site owner and most posters ridicule the European leaders for flattering Trump but overlook Trump’s even more abject deference to Putin.
I call that consequential and adult thinking by the posters in question.
And yes, ridicule our governments is the least we can do.
AG
August 20, 2025 at 16:44
But don’t ridicule Trump?
What´s your point?
AG
August 20, 2025 at 17:32
Apart from me and a few other posters (I won’t name them to avoid guilt by association) posters here never comment on Trump’s slavish devotion to Putin.
European leaders do flatter Trump for effect – to try to nudge him towards rational actions. Probably a futile attempt.
(Remember Churchill courting FDR before the USA entered ww2?)
Trump’s behaviour is quite different; he doesn’t just flatter Putin, he anticipates his wants and performs them.
Given the hugely greater military power available to Trump vis a vis the depleted Russkiy army, the latter not possibly a threat to the USA, a reasonable conclusion is that Putin has compromat on Trump.
Pretty extraordinary compromat to nudge a narcissist into subjection.
We can still ridicule our governments without the fear of ‘falling’ out of a window.
How do you know?
Yes John, supplying weapons and intelligence to kill Russians and subjecting Russia to stringent economic sanctions is ‘even more abject deference’ than the EU-US trade deal, the Nord Stream humiliation and Euro gimps calling Trump Daddy. If only everyone was blessed with your insight.
zoot
August 20, 2025 at 17:02
Why is Trump’s abject deference to Putin not grounds for ridicule by posters here and the site owner?
An interesting YouTube video re Anchorage & Washington:
https://youtu.be/f2ainZL8Tzk?si=M-uZ268_TcWc4skq
by Anders Puck Nielson.
And Steve Rosenberg quoting Russian newspapers:
https://youtu.be/Norw6T-jFDk?si=ENtoY2fVDTsR3OYv
Both videos suggest a degree of uncertainty re Anchorage & Washington that is not widely shared here!
Because nobody else considers Trump killing Russians to be abject deference.
Trump has threatened Putin in public a number of times. That’s a strange kind of abject deference.
What deference? He’s running a terrorist war against Russia.
Well of course one man’s flattery is another man’s good manners, but I do appreciate that some posters are unable – or more likely pretend to be unable – to tell the difference.
I should say that Trump’s attitude vis-à-vis Putin in Alaska was good manners and perhaps also a realisation that calling people “ogres” (cf President Micron) and such like is not usually conducive to constructive contact.
On the other hand, I should say the EU cheerleaders for Zelenski displayed not politeness but nauseating flattery vis-à-vis Trump. But I got the impression from watching the whole thing that Trump was laughing at them all (repeat, all) behind his apparent pleasure at their honeyed words. He gave himself away when he pretended for a moment not to recognise Stubb of Finland, the guy who’s always being touted as the “Trump whisperer” on the strength of having played golf together a couple of times.
Yawn BerkOff
August 20, 2025 at 17:11
Trump’s inability to recognise Stubb is more likely evidence of his advancing dementia.
It sees you’ve missed the point.
Of course Trump recognised him – he just pretended not to for a moment. A classic move, used by loads of people in all sorts of situations.
Look at the video again carefully, you’ll see it.
‘Moving parts in rubbing contact require lubrication to avoid excessive wear. Honorifics and formal politeness provide the lubrication where people rub together. Often the very young, the untraveled, the naive, the unsophisticated deplore these formalities as “empty,” “meaningless,” or “dishonest,” and scorn to use them. No matter how “pure” their motives, they thereby throw sand into machinery that does not work too well at best’.
– Robert A. Heinlein
Constructive communication and focus on the task, right.
I once commented on the striking difference between Ze, who creates an image for himself with casual clothes, sneakers and unshaven face, while communicating poorly in the Oval Office, after which he received the phrase “you must leave now.” An actor who came not to solve a problem, but to present himself, appeal to emotions, make statements and persuade to satisfy his requests for sponsorship of the war.
In comparison with the delegation of Russians, who put on their business suits and went to do their job with a team of people dressed in the same suits, representing the opposite sides, men having absolutely no reason to love each other. Men simply doing the work that their people entrusted them to do.
—
I also encounter this at my level 🙂
There are customers who make orders and are interested in how long it will take to get it ready, what are the terms of payment, and delivery time.
And there are customers who start with “I own a brand of unconventional materials jewelry …” which eventually turns into an order for a tiny piece of silver wire to wrap around a leather ring cut off from a worn out glove. I kid you not. And, one of the customers introduced herself as “a beads magnate”! She was unhappy with the price of the five cheap glass beads she was going to buy for her project.
I don’t even mention that these moguls and brand owners usually just do something as a hobby while they are not working because they take care of their babies. Just a way to boost their self-esteem, I guess. From my point of view, they exploit the fact that it would be impolite and unprofessional for me to laugh at such statements.
btw, I’m going to show you something about beads in my Crimea thread
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/forums/topic/the-republic-of-crimea-summer-2025/
please comment about Crimea inside that thread, not here
British secret intelligence´s love for fan fiction never ceases to entertain
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) with a new fun study fit for classes of creative writing or English poetry in the 21st century:
“The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure
This IISS paper assesses Russia’s unconventional war on Europe, focusing on sabotage of critical infrastructure, from military sites and energy grids to communications and undersea cables, testing the resilience of European governments and societies and challenging NATO/EU deterrence.”
https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2025/08/the-scale-of-russian–sabotage-operations–against-europes-critical–infrastructure/
Naturally the NYT was first to inform us about this breathtaking insight already 24 hours ago (hm, but did they wait first for Alaska to feature this?)
“Sabotage Shows How Russia’s Hostility Toward Europe Goes Beyond Ukraine
The Kremlin’s goal is to destabilize Europe, and attacks on infrastructure are a preferred weapon, a new report said.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/world/europe/russia-hybrid-attacks-europe.html?unlocked_article_code=1.fU8.9iro.T6h4j8hBXS9_
I agree with you that leadership in Europe is failing. That said, do you really believe the butcher of Chechen will keep his word? He may, but there again he may not. Europe had better be prepared for both eventualities.
This from Afshin Rattansi
The hacker group KillNet claims they breached the General Staff database of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and have uncovered that allegedly 1.7 MILLION Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or are missing since February 2022.
If true this makes it 17 to 1 in Russias favour
So the Europeans want to spend cash they havnt got
on American arms ,that they have not got ,
To give to Ukrainian troops, that Ukraine do not have ,
But apart from all that its a flawless plan
Alan Bolger
August 20, 2025 at 19:00
Alan,
if that is true, why aren’t the Russkiy elves (orcs are so passé and elves are wise and kind) back in Lviv?
The evil Ukrainians (orcs? goblins??) should surely have been “eliminated” by now?
The Allies haven’t been at war with the US-Ukronazi regime since 2022; they’re at war with Nato who are getting a bloody good hiding.
@Alan Bolger
Ukraine say it’s disinformation or ‘fake news’. Quote from MSN’s report : The Center for Countering Disinformation emphasized that Ukraine has never had a standing army of 1.7 million personnel.
But that’s not really relevant, is it, as that’s supposedly the total figure accrued since 2022,… obviously now it’s Q3 2025. And with Ukraine’s General Syrskyi demanding 30,000 new recruits per month, to replace battlefield casualties. Doing the math, is 1.7m so implausible if including deserters? Ukraine are quick to claim Russia has lost a very precise 1,072,700 personnel, killed or wounded. I’d imagine there are many deserters from both sides too.
“Maths”
That photo reminded me of the Headmaster of Robin Hood Juniors, “Whitehead the shitehead” before he got the whack out. Pity Trump didn’t put a bit of stick round.
Fascinating what one can learn when looking at old maps… https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/btv1b8490626v/f1.item.zoom#
(Have to say for an historian, you’ve done a pretty shocking job of simply accepting Putin’s “word”, Mr. Murray! )
Hmmm, I think that the Russians won’t settle for what you are willing to allow them. Crimea was gone forever in 2014 and the Donbas is being liberated daily. If I were Putin I’d keep going until the liberation of Odessa. If he does it will be interesting to see what the jackals in Rumania and Poland do….
Squeeth
August 20, 2025 at 20:27
“jackals in Romania (sic) and Poland”??
Mebbe a tiny bit orc-speak there Squeeth?
Gollum… gollum… gollum… squeeth…
Nice troll but no seegar. Don’t you remember what the Polish fascists did to Czechoslovakia in 1938? Rumanian irredentists will be licking their chops to get back Rumanian-speaking areas of south-west Ukraine.
Why do you keep using terms from a children’s fiction book on here? Apart from making your posts appear extremely puerile, it also reveals the abject paucity of your arguments. In other words it’s not big and it’s not clever.