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7,536 thoughts on “Not Forgetting the al-Hillis continued

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  • michael norton

    A 64-year-old man who recently returned to Annecy from Lombardy tests positive for coronavirus,
    ski centers seem to be hot spots for spreading this virus.

  • Good In Parts

    Michael Norton

    The quote from The Telegraph you posted on the previous page was interesting:-

    Brian Paddick, the former Metropolitan Police Deputy Assistant Commissioner, said that unless there was clear evidence that ruled out the other theories, it was “dangerous” to switch the focus of the investigation to this country.
    “It smacked to me of more of a political decision than a professional police one,” he said.
    “It was as if they did not want the reputation of France, and particularly this picturesque tourist spot, damaged by the suggestion that this could be anything to do with the French police or people in that area.”

    • michael norton

      Good In Parts
      Quote
      “My general view has been that SM was targetted for a reason not directly connected with CS. This is probably why the gendarmes have not resolved the case.

      They investigated CS rather than SM.”

      It was so obviously about spying.

      My gut tells me the main target was Sylvain.
      He was probably shot first and very definitely the most times.
      Of course he was targeted.
      As Sylvain was on a pushbike, the killer did not randomly kill Mr.& Mrs.al-Hilli and her “mother” and try to kill their eldest daughter as mere collateral.
      They were killed as a group.

      There was to be an exchange between a person of the al-Hilli party and Sylvain.

      The Uncle of C.S. has been keeping his head down lately?
      Does he still think he is a target?

  • Good In Parts

    MN

    I cannot argue too much with your conclusions as they are pretty much what I used to think back in the day, before I ‘went local’ that is.

    But as the investigation progressed the probabilities shifted away from the SAH party being targetted.

    These days I would estimate the probabilities as follows:-

    P=0.7 for SM

    P=0.15 for the SAH party

    P=0.15 for other options

  • Good In Parts

    Mobylette Madness version 3

    SM is assumed to have been the principal target and that he was likely observed by the killer setting off from Ugine or when in transit on the cycle track.

    Alternately there could have been a ‘leak’ of his intentions.

    The original source could be SM, CS or someone else in or around the pharmacy that lunchtime. There was plenty of time from SM’s call to CS at approx 12 noon for this to occur.

    The extra lead time over simply spotting SM on the cycletrack would reduce time and location constraints and make identifying the killer more difficult.

    I suggest that the killer rode up the combe on a motorcycle via Arnand then left it concealed and approached le Martinet parking on foot.

    It seems likely that the killer was one of the two mobylette riders seen by CA heading up towards the combe. Probably the first one and certainly not the TBR.

    I suspect that the mobylette could have been a larger moto, say a supermoto type, rather than a true mobylette. Seen from the side by CA they could appear to have similar ride heights.

    The killer may have traveled from the D1508 via the Chemin de la Cordice then the Impasse de la Scierie to the edge of Arnand, spotting SM on the way but missing WBM because he approached Chevaline from a different direction.

    The killer may have made his escape via the Giez area, possibly using the strip of land that runs under the pylons from le reposoir to le pesset. Then briefly using the Chemin du Chateau on the way to the valley floor.

    14:40:00 – Approx time SM sets off from Ugine, heading along the cycle track

    14:52:00 – ONF1 (heading up) passes LFR
    14:52:30 – LMC (heading up) passes LFR

    15:00:00 – ONF2 meet LMC at second hairpin and exchange a few words
    15:00:30 – LMC start descent from Martinet parking
    15:01:00 – ONF2 start descent from Martinet parking
    15:09:00 – LMC (heading down) passes LFR
    15:09:30 – ONF2 (heading down) passes LFR

    15:09 to 15:15 – timeslot when MOTO ridden by the killer (heading up) passes CA (as his first mobylette)

    15:10:30 – SAH (heading up) passes LFR then turns back towards Arnand at the ‘Y’ junction by the old sawmill
    15:11:00 – SAH (heading down) passes CA before entering Arnand
    15:11:30 WBM spots SM crossing the T junction ahead of him as he enters Chevaline
    15:12:00 – WBM arrives at the T junction in Chevaline
    15:12:00 – SM (heading up) crosses LMC then ONF2 in Chevaline (both heading down) – this is when ONF2 saw SM
    15:12:10 – WBM (heading up) crosses LMC and ONF2 (both heading down) near the eglise in Chevaline
    15:16:00 – SM (heading up) passes LFR (but is not reportedly seen by him)
    15:16:30 – WBM (heading up) passes LFR (but is not reportedly seen by him)
    15:17:00 – TBR (heading up) passes CA (as his second mobylette)
    15:17:30 – TBR (heading up) overtakes WBM shortly after the old sawmill
    15:17:30 – SAH passes CA heading up towards the combe (as his second voiture)
    15:18:nn – SAH party last photo taken

    15:21:00 – SAH passes the sign by the old mill heading up the combe
    15:27:30 – ONF1 (heading down) crosses a motorcycle that has apparently just arrived at le Martinet parking – this is possibly the TBR and the description given by ONF1 may be inaccurate
    15:29:00 – ONF1 (heading down) crosses SAH (as the 4×4 seen by Zainab) but ONF1 reports seeing an X5 not a break
    15:29:00 – ONF1 (heading down) crosses SM (heading up) but does not report seeing him

    15:30:00 – ONF1 (heading down) crosses WBM (heading up) as the 4×4 seen by WBM but ONF1 does not report seeing WBM
    15:32:00 – SM/LR phone call ends
    15:36:00 – WBM (heading up) crosses TBR (heading down) near the un-named side track on the east side of the combe 550m down from le Martinet that leads up towards the Bois du Droz
    15:36:00 – ONF1 (heading down) passes CA then shortly later crosses PB et al near Arnand (as they head up) though apparently does not report doing so
    15:37:00 – TBR starts up the un-named side track on the west side of the Combe that leads to Mont Benoit (where he will hear the shots)
    15:37:00 – SAH arrival at Le Martinet
    15:37:00 – PB+2 (heading up) passe CA (his third voiture)
    15:38:30 – SM arrives at Le Martinet parking – shooting starts
    15:39:10 – shooting ends
    15:39:30 – Killer leaves Le Martinet parking then runs back towards wherever he left his motorcycle

    15:40:00 – WBM arrival at Le Martinet
    15:43:10 – WBM departs
    15:44:59 – First emergency call
    15:47:00 – WBM and PB return to Le Martinet
    15:48:00 – Second emergency call

    16:03:00 – Emergency services pass old mill

  • michael norton

    I had fancied this.

    Killer (clean) drives to Doussard or nearby semi busy place, parks car and go for a short walk.

    The al-Hilli party slowly drive up to Le Martinet.

    A motorcyclist turns up,
    with motorcycle clothes and helmet in the top box/panniers, plus weapons and ammunition.
    Killer gets into motorcycle garb, and is pillion passengered up, a little below Le Martinet, Killer dismounts, takes off motorcycle garb, and puts back in top box and takes weapons and ammo, and hides in trees, creeping up to Le Martinet.

    Motorcyclist then clears off.
    Motorcyclist passes S.M. then W.B.M. as he slowly descends.
    S.M. cycles up for his meet with a person in the al-Hilli party.
    Killer takes out S.M. and all adults of al-Hilli party bashes eldest girl with pistol.

    Killer takes whatever was to be exchanged between S.M. and al-Hilli person.
    Killer carefully descends the hill via the forest.

    At a point close to where he exits the forest, the Killer buries the weapons and ammo, wipes his hands with alcohol.
    Then slowly walks back to his car, clean.

  • michael norton

    There are several reasons for using a motorcyclist who is other than the killer.
    The slowly descending motorcyclist would be seen by other parties, one such being W.B.M.
    It could be assumed that the motorcyclist was the killer.
    Thus drawing the scent.
    However it was a very long time before a/the motorcyclist was brought in for questioning
    and that person was not named, they were invincible, it seemed but not involved.

  • Good In Parts

    michael norton

    You posted:-

    ‘There are several reasons for using a motorcyclist who is other than the killer. The slowly descending motorcyclist would be seen by other parties, one such being W.B.M. It could be assumed that the motorcyclist was the killer. Thus drawing the scent.’

    Yep, if you have gone to the trouble (and risk) of sending multiple motorcycles up the combe as a team, you might as well get the most benefit out of them, such as using one as a ‘spotter’ to warn of approaching traffic. I tried hard to get this to work in the timeline using the ‘slow riding’ MC seen by WBM, to no avail.

    My current views on the motorcycle sightings (excluding Janin’s) are as follows:-

    CA first mobylette sighting is the killer
    CA second mobylette sighting is the TBR
    ONF2 sighting is LMC
    ONF1 sighting is probably the TBR
    WBM sighting is the TBR

    • michael norton

      Another reason for the motorcyclist, to be other than the killer.
      The killer has demonstrated a complete mastery of his trade.
      The killer may be in the direct employ of a national government, while the motorcyclist may be an indirect recipient of pay.
      The motorcyclist carries the weapons and ammunition to the killer and takes him the short distance adjacent to the killing destination.
      If the job is called off before the killer takes control of the weapons and ammunition, the government of their employee has deniability.
      If the motorcyclist is stopped and caught, before contacting the killer, their is also a level of deniability by that government.
      After the killing and after the killer has deposited his weapons and ammunitions and cleaned his hands, there is a very high probability that he gets away, clean.
      After the incident and after the motorcyclist descends the combe, there is a fairly good chance he will get away but even if he is caught and detained, he is unlikely to be incarcerated for long. There will be deniability by the government of the killer.
      If the killer/motorcyclist is “discovered” after a year or so, he will magically not have been involved or implicated in anyway.

      • michael norton

        Two options.
        1) first option, Sylvain was followed.
        2) second option, intelligence was gleaned that Sylvain would be meeting the al-Hilli party up the combe at a certain time.

        I contend that it was option 2.

        If the intention was to intercept “the package” and also kill all the adults in the handing over of the package, in the same place at the same time, which might take less than a single minute, then the killer would either have to be one of the al-Hilli party or be hidden adjacent to the venue.

  • Good In Parts

    Alternative three.

    A hybrid of information and observation. For example, the killer could have seen CS leaving work in her car or maybe arriving home in her car and the killer could have inferred from information he had obtained that this half-day was likely to allow SM to go grimping.

    This partial prior knowledge proposal makes the timeline much slacker and easier to achieve but, if correct, it means the killer will be difficult to identify.

  • michael norton

    Let us suppose that a “package” was to have been passed between Sylvain and a person of the al-Hilli family, up the combe, at a set time.
    The “package” could be handed over, in a moment.
    If the “package” was to have been passed from the al-Hillis to Sylvain, why not kill Sylvain and take the “package” from him, whilst he is descending the combe on his own.
    Or why not follow him and see who he delivers the package to.

    If Sylvain is handing the package to the al-Hillis, why not kill him and take the package from him, while he is on his own before he gets to the al-Hilli party.

    The reason was, that a clear message was being imparted, this action will expressly not be permitted.
    They all had to be killed together and the “package” taken back to the owners/state.

    As the handing over of the package, would take only a moment, the killer already had to be on site.
    So the killer had to either be a person in the al-Hilli party or they were already hidden in the trees, loaded gun in hand.

  • Q

    The anniversary date of this awful event is approaching again. I’ve come back to say that I have not forgotten the al-Hillis. I hope the girls will reach for their dreams, as they continue the path to adulthood. They deserve happiness.

    Best wishes to them both.

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