For 18 years, the Iranian nuclear programme has been one of the top 10 targeting objectives of the US intelligence services. In 2007 they first conducted a formal inter-agency review. It is done every year. This is not a minor process. A great deal of input is received from dozens of Washington stakeholders, led by the CIA.
The result has been the same every single year. Iran is not currently seeking to produce an nuclear weapon. Many people know that Tulsi Gabbard delivered this assessment in spring this year. Not many people realise that this was in no sense specific to Tulsi Gabbard and she was delivering the same assessment, through the same process, that Directors of National Intelligence under both Republican and Democrat administrations had given.
Nothing changed. The only thing that changed is Netanyahu’s attack on Iran. Trump appears able to get away with simply stating that he does not care what the intelligence agencies say. It is harder for Starmer to do that.
British and American armed forces are already in this war, shooting down Iranian missiles, refuelling Israeli bombers (alongside the Germans) and providing targeting information. Military supplies are shipped to Israel through RAF Akrotiri – which is a British sovereign colony on Cyprus – and Israeli bombers have certainly landed there in the last week; whether starting bombing runs from there, I cannot currently confirm.
There is no public opinion in the UK supporting British participation in an attack on Iran, despite massive and continual propaganda on all state and corporate media. I do not believe anybody informed solely by the mainstream media this last fortnight would have any idea that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, or that there is no evidence Iran was producing them.
The British government has a massive parliamentary majority – gained on just 31% of the vote – and a Conservative “opposition” even more keen to attack Iran than the crazed Zionists Starmer and Lammy. I do not see how they can be prevented from attacking Iran. But they will try hard to fix public opinion. It is therefore essential that MI6’s view, that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon, is kept quiet.
When Blair produced a dossier of “intelligence” lies to justify the destruction of Iraq, he was fortunate in having Richard Dearlove as Head of MI6, who was not just the most right-wing ideologue ever to hold the position, but one of the most right-wing men anywhere in England. Dearlove believed the moral case for the war was more important than the truth about Iraqi WMD.
Blair also had Sir John Scarlett as Head of the Joint Intelligence Committee and next Head of MI6. Scarlett passionately believed that the case for advancing the career of John Scarlett was more important than the truth about Iraqi WMD.
It is worth noting – and a prime example of how the neoliberal world works – that the next head of MI6, Sir John Sawers, is now an executive of British Petroleum. That company controlled Iran for decades, installed the fake Pahlavi “Shah” in 1921 and engineered and financed the coup that ended democracy in Iran in 1953. The appalling dictatorship of the Shah after that led directly to the theocratic revolution.
BP desperately want Iran’s oil back, so ex MI6 Head Sawers has been all over the airwaves advocating war on Iran. Meanwhile it is not an accident that two days ago, a new Head of MI6 was chosen and installed. Starmer has found his Dearlove.
The appointment was made by David Lammy. Blaise Metreweli was chosen ahead of more obvious candidates, who had served longer in MI6, had more operational experience, and were better analysts or better managers. However Metreweli – who spent much of her career in the Middle East – is a fanatical Zionist. She worked closely with Israel on technologies for surveillance and assassination.
Metreweli developed projects with both Pegasus and Palantir and was intimately connected to Israel’s use of new forms of attack in Lebanon and Iran. She was strongly endorsed to Lammy by Mossad as the next MI6 head. MI6 and the FCDO are inextricably connected. They work literally cheek by jowl in Embassies around the world, and MI6 HQ staff in London have cover jobs in the FCDO.
FCDO officials are extremely unhappy with the UK’s cooperation in Genocide in Gaza, with hundreds of them having been told by Lammy to shut up or resign. There is consternation at Mossad having designated the next Head of MI6. I asked my contact – a senior FCDO figure – whether Metreweli had involvement in the pager attacks in Lebanon. The reply was “Not 100% sure, but probably yes.”
Expect an imminent announcement that MI6 has determined that Iran was indeed about to produce a nuclear bomb.
The government appears to be justifying its current military involvement as the need to defend an “ally”, Israel. Emily Thornberry, a senior government MP and a lawyer, stated last night on BBC Newsnight that the legal right to take military action rested on our “right to defend our friends”. She did not use the word “ally”, and there is no such right as Thornberry posited.
Starmer and Lammy both frequently call Israel an “ally” but there is no public treaty of alliance available. There is a secret UK/Israel Defence Co-Operation Agreement of 2020. It is not known whether this amounts to a treaty of mutual defence.
Such treaties are supposed to be public and registered, not least because part of the alleged purpose is deterrence. You can read all the founding treaties of NATO.
The notion that the UK may go to war on the basis of a Treaty of Alliance that is secret from the British people, is so morally abhorrent it ought not to be able to be mooted, let alone acted upon. But democracy is dead in the UK, to the extent that people have forgotten its meaning.
Much worse, of course, is that this is not a case of mutual defence but of mutual offence. It was Israel that attacked Iran.
In standing alongside Israel, as in standing alongside Ukraine, the UK is condoning terrorist tactics such as the use of car bombs by both Ukrainian and Iranian “allies”. On what moral ground therefore does the UK stand in condemning the use of car bombs on the streets of London, when it supports our “allies” in their use?
You may recall that I recently published two posts focusing on remarkable fake terrorism plot narratives being heavily promoted by the UK security services in the mainstream media. Both revolved around alleged actions against Iran International, an extraordinary Saudi- and CIA-funded fake media organisation that promotes the return of the Pahlavi Shah in alliance with Israel and Iranian Sunnis.
From the Assange campaign, I have contacts on the libertarian side of MAGA that might surprise you, some actually in the Administration. I am told that the endgame being proposed in Washington by Israel and Saudi Arabia is Iranian regime change with the return of the Shah and a Sunni Prime Minister.
Remember there was no war with Iran yet, at the time I wrote those two articles about the remarkable happenings involving the security services and Iran International. This from my first article:
The connections all now click perfectly into place.
The UK has dived deep into the depths of immorality in which Zionism thrives. The consequences will be appalling.
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Starmer and the EU say they now want Iran to immediately negotiate, under duress – i.e. with the threat of further, even larger US strikes looming over them, were they not to agree to Trump’s terms.
Did our PM actually study law?
Duress, a legal doctrine that violates a contracting party’s consent. Any contract signed under duress can be voidable. Duress throws a wrench into any legal agreement, raising serious questions about its validity.
Sort of thing Craig might dig into in terms of international law?
Deeply unethical for western govts to support Trump’s ‘shake down’ approach, an approach he appears to have brought from his business dealings to international diplomacy.
Under the threat of further aggression, how can Iran be expected to negotiate?
What the hell has the west become?
They don’t mean negotiate in any normal sense of the word, they mean for Iran to surrender unconditionally and submit to a forced peace. The announced closure of the Hormuz oil route rather suggests they, Iran, are not inclined to do so at the present.
As regards International Law I don’t think it exists any longer. The doctrines of Carl Schmitt have been quoted by Vance, and their conduct suggests that they believe that they are radicals and the law places an artificial constraint on them. To paraphrase, ‘There is no law, only power.’. There is to be a ‘State of Exception’ in place until the revolution is complete (which is, of course, never).
Starmer is using the following wording : We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis.
Nobody should be forced to negotiate with a gun to their head.
Iran should try to get China and Russia involved. The EU leaders and von der Leyen and Kallas are atrociously biased.
Why do you think we spend a trillion a year on a military? Why do we have almost a thousand military bases scattered around the world? It’s a gun to the world’s head; it’s the only way we ever negotiate. Sometimes someone somewhere seems to forget the gun is there, so we arrange a reminder.
“What the hell has the west become?”
What it always was. What’s changed is that there is no longer any pretence it was otherwise.
Yes it is bizarre, Iran has the inalienable right to a nuclear program, they are part of the NPT and let IAEA inspect, what is to “talk” about?
This is just a power demonstration by the west bullying Iran. There is no other aim, goal, just pure bullying. West is lead by complete nincompoops.
Here’s a question. Iran’s parliament has voted to block the Strait of Hormuz. If it happens, by what means can America or anyone keep it open against Iran’s wishes?
It has happened. Didn’t you read the ominous post upthread?
Oil prices go up, good for Vladimir!
I understand Iran’s supreme national security council still has to approve it.
Price per barrel was at $77 at close of markets, Friday, expected go above $100 on Monday.
Remember, the EU wanted to cap the price at $45 per barrel, to hurt Russia’s war effort.
Just another obvious blowback that the incompetent europeans did not realize was bound to happen, amazing, it is folly after folly.
See. I told you. Iran’s debacle is good for Russia…
“Oil prices go up,”
You need to give your crystal ball a polish, nothing has happened.
“Send the Marines”
Send in the clowns 🎶
They’re otherwise engaged at the moment.
In a prolonged war of attrition with Iran, Israel can’t win, and they know it.
“Haaretz, citing an Israeli source: ‘We must pursue a diplomatic approach with Iran because nothing more can be achieved through military means”
Exactly, what is the purpose from now on by Israel and US? Whatever they do against Iran have “won”, US/Israel could even kill Khamenei and so what? There will be a new, emboldened leader taking his place.
Oops.
“Netanyahu:
‘I won’t get dragged into a war of attrition with Iran. When we achieve our goals, the fighting will stop””
https://nitter.poast.org/IranObserver0/status/1936867863098224850#m
He is not really in charge of where things go from here in my view.
Ever the opportunist – he has over- opportuned here and it will cost his untrustworthy friend in the US
the Mid -Terms and his bases gas prices to go up in the US as they export most of their own oil/LNG to credulous European Leaders at a lot more than Bezzie mate’s Rate’s.
Big inflation for all if the Iranians get more serious and as Melrose rightly says ( oh the irony) the West having to beg for oil and Gas from Russia.
Trump and Netanyahu are just starting their Boiling Frog Period.
I note that the Iranians are Mining the Straits of Hormuz suggesting ( at least to me anyway that it may be – un-mined in the future) which is a slight upside until they have to bomb the Saudi Oilfields maybe?
Trump’s third bluff call has been made.
It depends now on how hard the US is willing to push for more attacks on Iran.
More attacks more the US is falling into another ‘ Forever War. ‘
The performing seals in the EU and UK are applauding themselves at the Circus.
They think it’s all great again.
Things will develop.
No doubt about that.
“war of attrition”. Only a year ago, nobody knew what this could mean.
But even now, after searching Dictionary.com and Wikipedia, people use the meme with no clear acception. Do you perhaps mean that Israel will get tired of fighting sooner than Iran? Or that, after inflicting severe damage all over the Persian nation, they would repent and decide to offer a friendly outcome?
I personally think that time is running out. The endgame will occur in less than a year. Otherwise it would be against the “Art of the Deal”.
The end is coming much sooner than that. The West is about to experience its Suez moment.
Hear, hear!
The End is nigh (you asked for it, so don’t blame me).
In my opinion Iran should concentrate on its war of attrition because Iran has tens of thousands of missiles and Israel is running short of interceptors, not that they seem to be intercepting much in any case in a few months? Israel will be destroyed, on another thread I pointed out the vital targets when destroyed would make the Israeli state nonviable this would include ports, power stations,desalination plants etc. All these are being targeted now with precision guided missiles equipped with the Chinese BeiDou satellite system which by passes the western controlled GPS system and is superior to the Russian GLONASS system. This system enables Iranian missiles to strike with unerring accuracy. A game changer if you will.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1936519848298942540.html
https://jamestown.org/program/beidou-and-strategic-advancements-in-prc-space-navigation/
Great. While you must have been meditating, some other poster already mentioned this Chinese promotion article earlier today. GPS is no longer trendy, even Tesla cars use other technology…
So you’re also into attrition, I see. Sounds good to me. The only question is, how long is attrition supposed to last? Because, as far as Iran is concerned, they’ve been attritioning for almost 50 years. Many people would feel discouraged after such a while.
You cleverly mention that Iran still has an arsenal of missiles, but clearly Israel (and possibly the US too) have the firm intention to destroy it, like they did to the nuclear sites. So they should best use that arsenal quickly, if at all.
I should think “a war of attrition” is one where one protagonist superior in manpower, weapons and other armaments, and financial and economic resources deliberately draws out the war to wage at its own leisure, at the expense of the weaker antagonist. Instead of firing, say, 1,000 ballistic missiles a day at Israel, and risk the possibility of the US becoming more involved, the Iranians instead decide to fire 300 – 500 missiles a day, every day, for the next year, or even two, three years, enough to spook the Israelis and disrupt their normal daily activities by forcing them to dive for shelter and shut down their airports, ports and other transport network nodes when they would be working and operating these nodes. The result would be to weaken Israel – economically, financially and otherwise – to such an extent that it has no choice other than to surrender and agree to Iran’s terms of ceasefire.
Of course, this depends on whether Israel’s allies in the West are able to keep the country going with money, materiel and (if necessary) soldiers and, ahem, “advisors”, but after Ukraine, who knows how much the West has to give to Israel?
“Only a year ago, nobody knew what this could mean.”
By nobody, presumably you me you didn’t know. “War of attrition” has a perfectly clear meaning, anyone with the slightest knowledge of modern history (yes I know that seems to exclude most people in the US) will know that it means a war where the major strategy is to reduce the other side’s fighting power, rather than making geographical gains, WWI being a classic example in the case of Germany. This seems to go hand in hand with a siege by one side of the other, as again WWI provides an example. If Israel is forced to surrender, it will be by siege, not attrition.
My guess is that Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz in an attempt to align countries in its favour at the UN in the lead up to the Emergency Meeting it has called for. The plan being to isolate America further and strengthen the perception of a symbiotic relationship between the US and Israel. Seeking unanimity of support against the US aggression from the rest of the world, especially the Gulf and other Muslim states, and reminding them of the economic consequences of not doing so is I believe the intention. An endorsement by the rest of the world of Iran’s legitimate grievance would I think lead to the blockade being withdrawn. Iran’s strategic partner (China) is unlikely to want its energy supplies interrupted unless this could be covered by other means (i.e. Russia)
I think the best selling point for Iran would be for it to restate its position to acquire civil nuclear energy and to advise that it would commit to a regional nuclear weapon free zone if all the countries would agree, which would clearly need to include Israel. Obviously the US and Israel are unlikely to agree this but it would then strengthen the rational for developing nuclear military capacity ( which could theoretically in future be negotiated away). That’s my two pence worth !
Iran has a right to a civil nuclear programme. However it needs to provide a plausible explanation for why it needs 60% enriched Uranium for which there is no known civil use. According to IAEA Iran had 408 kg in May, up 50% on the amount it had in February. Its total stock of Uranium enriched to levels up to 60% was 9.25 tonnes, up by 953 kg from February.
OK – and now do Israel
Israel and nuclear weapons:-
https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-israels-nuclear-arsenal/
At least Israel had the sense to develop its bomb it total secrecy. They also refused to sign up to the NPT.
None of which detracts from the fact that if, as they claim, Iran is not trying to develop nuclear weapons they could save themselves and the rest of the world s lot of grief by explaining why they need so much highly enriched Uranium.
* subclause to firmest principle:
I will justify illegal, unprovoked attacks on sovereign nations if the attack has the imprimatur of Sir Keir Starmer.
“Iran has a right to a civil nuclear programme.”
Why does it not have a right to a military nuclear programme, too? What gives the current nuclear armed countries that right and Iran not?
Because Iran undertook not to develop nuclear weapons when it signed the NPT.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/17/what-is-the-npt-and-why-has-iran-threatened-to-pull-out-of-the-treaty
This has nothing to do with nuclear: military or civil, nothing at all.
This is about regime change, followed by undermining Russia and China through the medium of a western puppet.
The unintended consequences of this fiasco is that Iran will now almost certainly end up with nukes.
China is advising its allies that they should all have nuclear power and nuclear weapons capability. It is willing to assist. Russia I recall has highly mobile small nuclear weapons, which could be anywhere. Nuclear deterrence only holds if both sides can hold the threat over each other, and if they care about their civilian populations. The very small global elite holds the advantage in both these instances and wants to capitalise from preemptively striking weaker objectives.
Empires have always formed thus. Conn Iggulden’s books, especially about the series about the Mongols, are instructive. Peaceful lands develop cooperative wealth. Raiders want to steal it and control it. The Greeks unified a vast area with syncretic religion and philosophy based on their studies in the ancient centres of learning in India, which had been uninvaded for millennia. The Romans marched into this huge undefended area with hierarchical top down control, integrating Christianity into their patriarchal structures and diminishing the Divine Feminine, Sophia, Wisdom, which was retained in Coptic and Russian Christianity.
Where are the philosophers today? Greed and fascism are a minority interest. They are a problem for peace loving people everywhere. Our heritage of local democracy and community cooperation has been infiltrated and undermined. Our national democracy has been sold or given away. Peace and justice and global cooperation face catastrophe. Attack is always wrong. Defence is always right. Good people everywhere are working to heal harm, and prevent it wherever possible. Principles of humanity and compassion matter to all of us, despite what is presented in the mainstream media, which seeks to distract and divide us.
Iran will meet with Russia. China is delivering assistance to Iran. Greed and Fascism are not philosophies that inspire loyalty. Defence is however vitally important and our alliances need to serve a peaceful and achievable outcome when this is over.
Hi all. Just popping in to let you know I’m okay – I got a new air compressor and have been busy setting it up and turning it to my workflow.
An expected, yet frightening development this week. Looks like we are in the midst of an evolving breakdown of international law.
What is acceptable and what is not is being reconsidered as events unfold. As with teenage protest, the boundaries of what is permissible are being tested.
Hope it won’t result in a world war, I’ve got orders to ship 🙂