The provisional surrender document signed by Donald Trump appeared to represent a triumph for Iran and indeed for the world; but neither the USA nor Israel has the slightest sense of honour and they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith.
Iran knows this – after all, the USA twice attacked Iran actually during peace negotiations, on each occasion killing key Iranian negotiators.
To understand the American position, it is important to realise two key points:
- Greater Israel is an absolute priority
- Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not a US priority
While the US/Israeli alliance were defeated in their attempt to impose regime change on Iran, and indeed have consolidated the popular support of the Iranian government, they have succeeded in expanding Greater Israel. Israel has ethnically cleared and devastated a vast swathe of Southern Lebanon, expanding its military footprint, and notably attempting to repeat its ploy from November 2024 of pushing forward its armour under cover of ceasefire.
Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon has been a major negotiating point for the Iranian government and is a key – indeed the very first – point of the Iran/USA MOU. But in an extraordinary coup aimed at negating that deal, the USA has signed a deal with Israel and its puppet Aoun regime in Lebanon which seeks to legitimise Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon through the agreement of the “Lebanese government”.
This is an astonishing development. I did not think I could have a lower opinion of the appalling bloated traitor “General” “President” Aoun but not even I – nor I think any commentator – believed he would make such a deal with Israel. The plan is that the Americans, Israelis and Lebanese Army will act together to forcibly eliminate Hezbollah, and only after that is certified – by the Israelis – will the Israelis withdraw from Southern Lebanon.
Here are the operative paragraphs. Note that they carefully do not say in terms that Israel will actually leave Lebanon.
“3. …The Government of Israel and the Government of Lebanon commit to a reciprocal, sequenced process, with clear conditions, whereby the LAF will restore effective sovereign authority over all Lebanese territory, pending the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups and dismantlement of associated infrastructure, enabling the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to progressively redeploy out of the Lebanese territory.”
“5 . …The Government of Israel underscores that the termination of this threat, through the disarmament and dismantlement of such groups in all of Lebanon and additional security arrangements to be agreed upon between the two countries, will eliminate any future need for IDF military action or presence in Lebanon.”
This is plainly completely incompatible with the USA/Iran MOU, which states as Point 1:
“The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.”
Of course, everybody knows that Israel will never withdraw voluntarily, any more than they withdrew from the Golan Heights. Annexation is plainly the goal and expansion of Greater Israel at least to the Litani River and probably further.
It is important to realise that this is not only Aoun seeking the annihilation of the Shia population of Southern Lebanon; he is also betraying his own community. Aoun is himself a Southern Lebanese Christian, and Israel has been destroying the homes, churches, hospitals and families of Southern Lebanese Christians with as much glee as they attack Muslims.
The agreement names two “pilot zones” where the combined Israeli and Lebanese Army forces will eliminate Hezbollah, followed by Israeli withdrawal from those zones. But these are zones which Israel is not currently occupying – they are areas where Israel was defeated in fighting by Hezbollah and which have been since subject to relentless Israeli bombardment.
So Aoun has agreed to support militarily an IDF advance further into Lebanon, against an agreement that Israel will be able to withdraw once these key Hezbollah redoubts have been destroyed. Even if Aoun were stupid enough to believe the Israelis will withdraw after the operation, this is a level of treachery it is difficult to comprehend.
Greater Israel is not a concept. It is a reality being created before our very eyes.
Israel now occupies 70% of Gaza and plainly the entire “Board of Peace” mechanism is nothing but smoke and mirrors, pure fraud. It has zero effect on the continued tightening of the Gaza concentration camp into an ever-shrinking area. Israeli settlements in the West Bank expand daily and every night the skies are red with Palestinian homes and crops burning. In East Jerusalem Palestinians are continually evicted and replaced by fresh European or American arrivals. In Syria, Israel is building permanent fortifications and its armour creeps forward field by field, with the full cooperation of “President” al-Jolani.
Iran was able to resist the combined military might of the USA and Israel. That is cause for celebration. But do not allow it to blind your eyes to the continued hard reality of the expansion of Greater Israel.
There is no gain for the US in the US/Iran Memorandum of Understanding which the US did not already possess before starting the war. It is therefore very possible, and in many senses valid, to read it as the formalisation of US defeat: a surrender document. Which is why you should be sceptical about US commitment to the terms.
The Strait of Hormuz was fully open before the US started the war. Allowing the flow of oil to resume has become a short-term US priority due to high domestic retail prices and pending elections, but the MOU envisages more Iranian control – and potentially fees – in the Strait than existed before the war.
There is no indication of restrictions on the Iranian nuclear programme that were not already available in the peaceful negotiations. Crucially there are no limitations on Iran’s vital ballistic missile production. The proposed relaxation of sanctions and release of frozen assets is a triumph for Iran and long overdue, and the $300 billion in dollars in reparations, from unspecified sources, is stunning.
So stunning of course that anyone with their head screwed on will realise there is no long term American intention to keep faith with the deal.
Trump is not stupid. There are many ways of characterising his kind of cunning, but it is not stupidity. He was not, as the prevailing narrative seeks to state, the only person in the World who did not realise the Strait of Hormuz would be closed by the war. The USA is quite happy to see the Strait of Hormuz closed, or permanently made more difficult and expensive to transit.
The key to understanding Trump’s position is his famous love of tariffs. Trump is a mercantilist. For many years the world worked on the general basis of accepting the economics of Adam Smith – that freedom of trade promoted universal, reciprocal wealth creation. That was the founding basis of the World Trade organisation, and is the internal philosophy of big trading blocs like the EU.
Trump rejects this and returns to the philosophy that other nations are all competitors, not potential partners, and that success lies not only in increasing your own production, but in damaging your rivals’ production – which ultimately will increase domestic production further. Trump rejects the basic premise of free trade.
The long prevailing belief in the beneficial effects of free trade historically was, as logic demands, accompanied by the demand for freedom of navigation.
Sweeping away tariffs goes hand in hand with sweeping away the controls on shipping which carry the goods. Before the rise of liberal economics, almost all states had practised mercantilism, with controls on shipping being a major source of state revenue. The magnificence of Kronborg Castle in Helsingør, in which Hamlet is set, was constructed entirely from revenues from tolls on ships exiting the Baltic by passing the strait it overlooks, for example. Mercantilism not only sought to control passage but to dictate which country’s ships were allowed to trade.
Freedom of navigation was initially enforced ultimately by the British, and later the American, Navy. States attempting to enforce customary passage fees, for example in the Malaccan Strait, were classified as “pirates” and freedom of navigation became a routine justification for imperialist aggression and/or colonial occupation. Freedom of navigation eventually became customary international law, ultimately codified in the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.
The simple truth is this: in openly abandoning the principle of free trade, the Trump regime has also abandoned the logically linked principle of freedom of navigation. This is evident not just in their indifference to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is evident in the naval blockades of Cuba and Venezuela and above all in the worldwide blockade of Russian hydrocarbon deliveries, including the effective end of free passage through the Strait of Dover, and a de facto naval blockade of the Arctic passages.
Following the shale boom, the United States is a net hydrocarbon exporter. The USA balance of trade benefits from high hydrocarbon prices. Trump is doing everything he can to increase US hydrocarbon production by slashing environmental and other controls. This is a core Trump policy.
The USA does not import hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz. That fact is key to Trump’s thinking.
In this mercantilist view, closure of the Strait has two benefits for the USA.
- It disadvantages rival hydrocarbon suppliers
- It disadvantages rival industrial competitors in Europe and Asia who do get hydrocarbons through Hormuz.
This is exactly the same logic behind the destruction of Nord Stream 2. The same mercantilist system also explains the effective seizure through naval blockade and control of Venezuela’s oil production, and the blockade of Russian hydrocarbons through sanctions and the “shadow fleet” propaganda disguising another naval blockade.
The UK’s recent actions in the Dover strait indicate that the West, not just the United States has surrendered the principle of freedom of navigation in straits.
Trump believes, as he has repeatedly stated in public, that domestic fuel prices in the USA are a blip and will equalise as the USA increases its domestic fuel production and Venezuelan fuel production. However this was not happening in time for the mid-term elections which is why reopening the Strait of Hormuz became a temporary priority that occasioned the ceasefire and MOU with Iran.
None of this implies good faith negotiation or a real prospect for a lasting peace.
————————————————————————————-
Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse my work, including in translation.
My work has no funding at all except for your subscriptions. If you already, subscribe I would be grateful if you could check if your subscription is still active. Over 80% of my subscriptions lapse when debit or credit cards expire: the systems do not warn you.
Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up additional new methods of subscription payment including Patreon account and a Substack account ; if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish, subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come to this blog and read the articles for free.
I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.
Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:
PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]
Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:
Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address NatWest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB
Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a
So has Iran sold Hezbollah out?
Also gotta wonder who’s stumping up the reparations money? Gulf despots?
Answer: No.
No-one ever imagined that reparations money was ever more than fictional, much the same as in Gaza.
Brian, from what I understand the “reparation” word is verboten and deliberately omitted, the preferred term is “redevelopment” funding and yes, provided by the GCC statelets. Whether it actually materialises is something entirely different. I for one won’t be holding my breath.
Saudi has apparently underwitten half of the first installment, likely as a ploy to force US compliance.
There’s a huge war coming – not just between those who support some sort of freedom – and those who wish to take full control of humanity, but between good and evil, sadly for me much of the West is now in my opinion classed in the latter category – this coming war will be decisive in what future direction humanity takes.
Brother, You can’t have capitalism and humanity. We are still being feed that the all route of EVIL is socialism.
Much of the West loves to demonize socialism, the one time English PM Thatcher embraced Milton Friedman and the Chicago Boys capitalist economic principles, and enforced them on England, Scotland Wales and NI, and Labour soon adopted them as well, that’s why corporations are allowed to plunder public funds – and it continues to this day – backhanders on contracts given out by morally corrupt politicians and councillors.
It was Henry Kissinger who said that – the US couldn’t allow Chile to become/remain a socialist country, that the voters didn’t know what was good for them – so the democratically elected president of Chile Allende was overthrown by Thatcher’s good friend General Pinochet.
The US has been butchering and regime changing around the globe – in an attempt to snuff out socialism for good.
Now we have people who are trillionaires – and are admired for becoming so, they could cure world hunger in one mighty go – but they don’t and millions even look up to them as role models, that’s how f*cked up the world is today.
I’m a socilaist and will be all my days.
Me too, @RoS – a socialist until the day I die
– for the free development of each to be the condition for the free development of all.
^ Part of the definition of a human society that is genuinely human and genuinely a society AFAIAC.
“Now we have people who are trillionaires – and are admired for becoming so, they could cure world hunger in one mighty go – but they don’t and millions even look up to them as role models, that’s how f*cked up the world is today.”
The problem is that only those in the grip of an insatiable mania* to have ever increasing amounts of wealth get to be so rich, but, like the fisherman’s wife in the fairy story, they find that the more wealth they have, the more they crave. Truly, for these people the world is not enough.
*a mental illness already recognised at the time of Ancient Greece.
The insatiable mania was acknowledged by Plato in the early pages of “Politeia” (“The Republic”). The Greeks had two words for it: philarguria and pleonexia. Plato has Socrates explain that money and power are the only two objects of desire for which the appetite grows with acquisition.
Philarguria is simply the love of money, whereas pleonexia is more the desire to take from others what is theirs. We certainly see a lot of both these days.
Yep.
“The world’s 12 wealthiest individuals now control $2.635 trillion—more than the combined wealth of the poorest half of the global population [~4Bn people] according to Oxfam’s annual inequality report released at the opening of the World Economic Forum in Davos.”
And
“In the UK, the richest 56 individuals now hold more wealth than 27 million Britons combined “
What is socialism ? Starmer or St Jeremy, Russia or China, Nigel or Tommy ?
I don’t like labels or exclusive clubs because they tend to negate common sense, morality and inclusiveness. Maybe our selfish darwinian genes work against socialism as everyone fights to just survive. We need something better than these devalued unobtainable labels.
IMO !
@Stevie – Socialism is a society where the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all, and it (therefore necessarily) requires the absence of private property, wage labour, commodity economy, external authority, and the state.
I’m not quite sure what your take on it is. You ask what socialism is (good question). Then you talk about devalued labels (fair enough) and … the unobtainability … of what exactly?
Not clear what exclusive clubs have to do with it either.
Another definition of a socialist other than someone who wants what I defined above is someone who asks the “social question”, i.e. “Why is there such poverty in a time of such highly developed production?” and who takes this line of thought to a profound conclusion.
“the unobtainability … of what exactly?”. Eg. absence of private property, wage labour, commodity economy, external authority, and the state. So, socialism is nothing more than an idea because by your definition it wouldn’t, in reality, be achievable – without coercion.
Exclusivity. The population of the uK is circa 70 million. Will socialism meet, or even try to meet, the needs of all 70 million ? BTW that would include so called right wingers and brexiters. So, we will have exclusions for some ?
I’m not against some socialist ideas but like most ideologies they tend to fall down in reality, I don’t know what the answer is, I just know the stuff that makes my blood boil. Labels just allow people to tick a box and stop thinking, IMO.
@RoS – “There’s a huge war coming – not just between those who support some sort of freedom – and those who wish to take full control of humanity, but between good and evil, sadly for me much of the West is now in my opinion classed in the latter category – this coming war will be decisive in what future direction humanity takes.”
Agreed but the Chinese state should go in the same bin as the West.
Google is just China waving the Zionist flag and speaking in a Californian accent.
The war will essentially be an enormous cull of the lower orders, just as WW1, WW2, and many other wars have been, but on a much larger scale.
Regardless of the British media’s current chorus of “Andy Burnham will bring reindustrialisation” it’s obvious that from a capitalist point of view there’s huge over-employment and over-population.
The fact that there was so little resistance to the rulers’ doings in 2020-22 with Covid hardly inspires optimism. Nowadays there is no “left” with the backbone or intelligence to ask what comes next. One can, though, look at what resistance there was… e.g. in the French Caribbean, and although resistance in London was low-key and heads-down at least that city came out well relative to the rest of Britain, largely because of intelligent mistrust of the authorities by non-white people – not a problem the rulers have yet solved, I think, for all their co-optation Uncle Tom efforts and for all the resources they give to the 77th Brigade etc.
Stevie, Do you think Capitalism exists without coercion? The American prison population suggests otherwise. The modern policeman in the West is dressed up and tooled like a soldier.
Medhurst has been expanding on this for a while now, the US controlling energy which resonates with what you say 👍
https://substack.com/@richardmedhurst/note/p-196141950?r=86dtc4
Richard is very bright
Not really:-
https://www.richardmedhurst.com/no-russian-invasion-media-look-like-fools-hyping-war/
It takes something to be proved wrong by Liz Truss!
His suggestion that this is all some kind of US Master Plan is one of those things that looks plausible in hindsight but would really be nigh on impossible to plan in advance. Makes Trump out to be much cleverer than he really is.
Unless somebody other than wrestling reality TV boy who juts his head like Mussolini and gets the willywobbles whenever he walks down a slope is doing the planning…
His son-in-law doesn’t seem to suffer from these issues. Just sayin’.
The man who never made a mistake never made anything. Have you never got it wrong?
Freedom of navigation is also a big issue for China, and that’s what a lot of this is really about.
Re Lebanon.
The Israel/US/Lebanon agreement is possible, because the Aoun regime has no power at all, certainly not to disarm Hizbullah. And the Israelis have figured this out.
To recall the background, which Craig knows well. It’s all the fault of the French in 1920. Lebanon as autonomous territory under the Ottomans was a very small country, Beirut and the Maronite mountain behind it. The French taking on the post-war mandate wanted to create a large Christian state, and added in a large territory to south, north and the Biqa’ valley in the east. Even in 1920, there was only a small Christian majority. Since then the higher birth rate of the Shi’a has done the rest. The French installed a bizarre constitution, in order to ensure permanent Christian domination, one which allocates the presidency to the Christians, prime ministership to the Sunnis, etc. So whatever the result of the elections, the same govt continues.
The civil war was all about the Christians not losing their control, but they did anyway because they are now minority, and the Shi’a majority. I read somewhere that in the last parliamentary elections, it was actually Hizbullah who won the greatest number of seats. They should have become the government, in any normal country, but they were kept out by the bizarre constitution and French and American pressure, so instead of providing some ministers, they withdrew entirely.
The Christians and Sunnis just don’t have the strength to contest Hizbullah power, in practice. The government is incapable of disarming Hizbullah, as they are just a feeble cipher, maintained by the West, and the real government should be Hizb, while the army is deliberately kept weak by the US so that it can’t fight Israel.
But in my view that doesn’t mean Israel is winning the war. They haven’t been able to advance the front very far, nothing like previous rushes to Beirut. The Christians, however much they hate Hizbullah – and they do intensely – also can’t do much to undermine Hizb’s position, and carry out any agreement with Israel.
This is to note the western home-market psywar practice of saying that the resisters or potential resisters of Zionazi aggression should be disarmed, or deprived of the ability to develop weapons, in the interests of goodness and light.
This line is applied to Palestine, Iran, and southern Lebanon. If the Zionazi military attack some other country, doubtless it will be applied there too.
“It’s all the fault of the French in 1920. ”
A surprising number of things are all the fault of the French, like two World Wars.
Actually I would attribute the world wars more to US influence, coming from bankers and imperialists. WW1 ruined Europe and bankrupted Britain, allowing the USA to pick up the pieces. Most important, it stopped Germany’s growth dead in its tracks, whereas in 1910 Germany was the great rising industrial power. WW2 further ruined Europe and Britain, also China, Japan, and the USSR (among others).
“The Christians, however much they hate Hizbullah – and they do intensely”
Do the Christians imagine that their lot under Israeli rule will be any better than that of the West Bank/Gaza Christians? However much they hate Hizbullah they have a common enemy in Israel.
Pezeshkian looks gullible enough to take Western promises at face value. He came to power because his predecessor dies in a helicopter crash…
Thanks for that Laguerre, great little history lesson for me there. I’m guessing this span out of the earlier carve up known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement which I believe was about acquiring Mesopotamian Oil resources for Empire.
“The English philosopher Thomas Hobbes framed it simply. People surrender part of their freedom in exchange for security. When the state fails to provide that security, the basis of its authority begins to erode.
John Locke, one of the fathers of political liberalism, pushed this further. Authority loses legitimacy when it turns against the natural rights of citizens or governs arbitrarily. At that point, resistance becomes justified.
Jean-Jacques Rousseau added another layer. Legitimacy rests on representing the general will. When authority serves a faction or submits to external pressure, it breaks the social contract that gave it life.
These ideas offer a clear measure. A state that cannot secure its borders, cannot halt the killing of its citizens, and accepts occupation over part of its land while directing its force inward begins to drift from its core role. Its institutions are then used to contain crisis rather than shield society, with the cost carried by the public itself.
This question now sits at the center of Lebanon’s current trajectory.”
https://thecradle.co/articles/sovereignty-turned-inward-in-lebanon
Interestingly, This question now also sits at the centre of the UK’s current trajectory
Judging by the Electronic Intifada’s Resistance Reports, the “Greater Israel” project does not seem to be making progress in Lebanon. For all we know, we might start seeing such reports from Gaza again in the not-too-distant future, or even start seeing them from Syria.
Turning to the Gulf, I think that Trump will be very concerned with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, because of the effect on petrol prices in the US and with it his election prospects. With demand for petrol peaking in summer in the USA, he might attempt an invasion of Kharg Island or Qeshm Island and smaller ones in the Strait of Hormuz. That might precipitate a Teutoburg moment, not against America’s aircraft carriers, but against her forces after they leave those vessels and use smaller craft for the purpose of invasion.
I think that Trump is increasingly desperate, and therefore if, as I foresee, the Republicans will be crushed in November, we might expect an attempt at overthrowing American democracy itself, e.g. by the declaration of a state of emergency suspending the Constitution and introducing dictatorship, as in Sinclair Lewis’ prescient novel It can’t happen here (ISBN 9780241310663), brilliantly adapted by BBC Radio.
If that happens we might see an “underground railroad” network developing, for people liable to be rounded up.
Since the Democrats are the other cheek of the property party arse, I doubt that they will bother. I wonder where the 2nd Amendment types will be if the Republicans try it on?
Efforts will be made to prevent Republican defeat in swingable states by “any means necessary”. I don’t know anyone in the USA who believes otherwise.
True that the Democrats won’t win the two-thirds of the Senate required for an impeachment conviction but this is a minor matter.
The fascist nutters want an explosion of violence so as to usher in a more brutal and hierarchical “mediaeval” society, and many of them are quite open about this.
Note: so Silicon Valley wasn’t such a hippie thing after all.
” Note: so Silicon Valley wasn’t such a hippie thing after all.”
Yeah, B, it was always more Philip K Dick than Ursula Le Guin ( her optimistic side ). The early and deep involvement of U.S Security State fuckery meant it’s initial ” Techno Hippie ” vibe/hype was not going to be allowed to be realised.
Now with * Full Spectrum * sociopaths like Thiel/ Karp/Musk et al commanding influence on the State to a degree that would have made Nero envious, any possibility of Silicon Valley becoming an actual source of the astounding advances in Communications Technology being used for the benefit of all Humanity is just about zero. Another opportunity squandered and another wrong turn taken. If things can be boring ( in their predictability ) & tragic at the same time – QED
We can only hope that the Aoun capitulation gets the bird from the army, the Lebanese public and turns out to be a Pyrrhic victory.
The Lebanese Army has long been impotent/ The Lebanese public are easily distracted with ethnic beefs.
Like the publics everywhere !
Nassim Taleb writes interestingly on the Lebanon or the “Levant” as he calls it.
Lebanon as a model, with the assumption of continued stability (with French mafia at home in popular holiday resort Beirut) torn to shreds in the 1970s, just as it’s about to be in the 2020s in many countries?
Trump rejects this and returns to the philosophy that other nations are all competitors.
Yep. He sees the rest of the world like some zero-sum game. Run a trade surplus with the U.S. and you must be ‘ripping them off’ somehow. Everything is reduced to ‘winners and losers’, nuanced arguments don’t get a look in.
The disgraceful thing in all of this is that the lebanse regime never put forward any demands whatsoever against the israelis, one thought that they would atleast push for financial compensation for the wanton destruction the israelis caused not to mention compensation for the thousands of lebanese killed. But no, nothing. These fanatical secterians – sunni and christian – arab leaders have no shame nor integrity, ready to sell out their own people, using the argument of the enemy – that Hezbollah – is somehow the core issue when people in the israeli government openly proclaim that Lebanon in part or in whole should belong to Israel – Hezbollah could in theory disarm tommorow and the israelis would come up with another reason to wage war and steal lebanese territory.
You would think an indefatigable force of grassroots resistance like Hezbollah would be a source of inspiration to people across the Arab world. Instead ordinary Arabs seem to dislike them more than the genocidal settler rapists who are murdering hundreds of thousands of Arab women and children with sadistic glee. Maybe you are right that it is more than just the western-backed Arab dictators who are the problem.
“the western-backed Arab dictators” are slipping the leash, at least those in the Gulf. It is evident that the US is not going to defend them. They have to reach an understanding with Iran. The real Gulf states, that is excluding Saudi, have a basic problem that they have virtually no national populations; they can only do what money can do.
The Arab despots will simply bugger off to Switzerland or London or whatever and ride it out.
As for the average frustrated Arab on the street, their rulers have less concern for them than they do for cattle or sheep.
They can’t just bugger off; they have to look after their revenue stream.
As for “the average frustrated Arab on the street”, there aren’t any or only a handful, in the Gulf states. That’s the point. As the Saudi foreign minister once famously said: Qatar is “300 princes and a television station”.
@Laguerre – Great quote. From Prince Bandar bin Sultan who was head of the Saudi intelligence service I think.
Gulf despots’ income from sovereign wealth fund investments isn’t on the level of oil profits but it’s still pretty damned big. Some of them gotta be intelligent enough to know things can’t go on the same way as now forever. See Yamani’s observation that the Stone Age didn’t come to end because of an absence of stones.
Most Arabs are Sunni. Hezbollah are mainly Shia, and therefore easily demonized.
“Look over there! A squirrel!”
“Annexation is plainly the goal and expansion of Greater Israel at least to the Litani River and probably further”.
I should think as much further as they can go without being physically stopped. Which probably means when they run into the Turkish armed forces.
First thoughts.
Are the interests of Wall Street and US Carbon producers aligned ? What are the timescales for the transition from Neo-liberalism to Mercantilism ? The bottleneck we are swiftly approaching and the churn that will take place if we proceed is frightening.
An alternative choreography may be taking place ? Does the US and Iran’s basic analysis of the situation actually diverge ? If both parties accept the status quo ante then perception management about who is to blame for the catastrophe will be the objective (who will suffer most from international isolation and who is best placed to manage the internal consequences/dissent ?) and how will this affect geo-strategic relations and alliances more broadly ? However if one (US) or both parties accept that the Strait of Hormuz needs to function due to the immediate short term consequences then a deal/bargain will need to be struck. By provoking Iran the US is leaving its bases vulnerable to attack in the Gulf pressuring its Gulf State allies to become unequivocal in their position that the US must vacate them. If the US vacates it will no longer be in a position to defend Israel. This may be the subtext as to what is happening ? By provoking Iran the US is effectively inviting Iran and their Gulf neighbours to expel the US from the region. If the Israelis cannot see that and then change course (even at this late stage) then the US may get up and go and leave them to it. Obviously this analysis precludes the ideological component that Greater Israel is the sine qua non of US foreign policy.
The financial markets, especially the bond market, will be critical given the US’ vast debt, interest payments, and the exorbitant cost of maintaining its military footprint around the world. The notion that the US will be able to hold out longer than the rest of the world once the catastrophe hits is not certain (especially if its allies are suffering the most). I suspect that the stock market and the need to access the credit to sustain it will take priority as it has the shorter time-scales and therefore has the more urgent demand placed upon it. Therefore are Wall Street and the Carbon Industries interests strategically aligned ?
These are first thoughts so may well need to re-visit them.
Responding to first thoughts: Trump is powering on full steam ahead for a monopoly of the world’s oil. Falkland Islands oil is on the to do list. Markets have this covered. American debt is a humungus bubble but anyone who understands modern monetary theory will know that for as long as there is a demand for US dollars, the Deficit simply doesn’t matter. Private debt cripples countries from inside, however, and part of that rot is our housing price bubble and student loan debt – which ought to be written off with the stroke of a pen, but it serves to keep smart people poor, and population decline continuing.
China will want to unblock obstacles to trade and fuel. Russia still has fuel despite daily attacks against its oil and gas infrastructure. And of course Gaza is the access point to the massive gas reserves under Israel. Much of this is forward planning, investment outlay, for capitalist monopoly ventures across the region.
Hi Alyson.
About your reply [15:18].
The control of current and future petroleum/gas reserves is clearly important but the time-frame for these infrastructure projects is in the short-medium term not the short-short term that the current bubble in the stockmarket is subject to ? Iran has demonstrated its capacity in conjunction with its allied support to accurately target infrastructure. If the US is content to hurt Iran and its Gulf Allies by preventing them exporting their resources (oil) in the short term do you think they are all going to wait several years without intervening while alternative infrastructures are built to channel carbons through Syria or to Gaza ? I suspect (perhaps wrongly) that that will not happen. By delivering the catastrophe that a continued blockade of the Strait will cause the US will prompt the rest of the world to divest rapidly from it and it will face an immediate credit crunch (and ruinous hyper-inflation if it seeks to print its way out of it). This is just my thnking aloud and as I’m sure you’ve guessed I am not an expert on economics !
The gas infrastructure from Gaza was built first by British Petroleum, who had permission from the Palestinian government. Then Israel said No. Next a Dutch company built further pipelines and everything is in place to deliver gas through Greece to Europe and east through Turkey to Pakhistan, but again Israel said that the Palestinian Authority should not benefit from the sale of this gas, which belongs to the people of Gaza, who will soon cease to exist.
Likewise America has already taken 3.5 billion dollars of oil out of Venezuela. Some have questioned whether the massive earthquake could have been influenced by such a huge extraction of underground substance, though this seems unlikely. Cuba’s oil extraction is primitive but it probably won’t take long to increase its productivity. Greenland’s terrain is chillier but Japan is obtaining concessions there. This global volatility is changing things fast.
Other things have destablised Venezuela. Not that you would know it from BBC reports. They are going big on the “people’s” rage at their own government for responding so ineffectually (if they are given the scale of the disaster). No mention from BBC henchmen of decades of US sanctions, nor the disgraceful kidnapping and imprisonment of the elected President. Nor of the American refusal to lift before-mentioned sanctions in this time of national emergency. Regime change is obviously a BBC priority at the moment and stuff ordinary people.
“What are the timescales for the transition from Neo-liberalism to Mercantilism ? ”
We have always had Mercantilism. This has been disguised in various ways over the years.
Before the collapse of Syria, Russia was patrolling the borders and the piplines that crossed the country. Russia was targeting Daesh forces where they were massacring civilians. Netanyahu, following in Kissinger’s footsteps, was meeting regularly in Moscow to agree on what steps Israel could take without being attacked by Russian planes, for breaching international borders. As forces from north and south simultaneously drove into Syria, Russia offered safe haven for its official ruling government and Assad was airlifted out as the country was carved up between Saudi backed forces and Israel. It all happened in a matter of days.
Russia has attended talks around the war with Iran. I don’t have any knowledge of its position or standpoint.
In the Far East Japan is rapidly and efficiently remilitarising, forging alliances and stationing forces in other countries with a view to stopping an invasion of Taiwan, which if it was allowed to start, would likely expand rapidly across the region. China is bringing various punitive restrictions to bear on Japan.
Countries nearby are watching closely the joint manoeuvres taking place between Russia and China. Their concerns are for the immediate region. Japan got its ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, with permission from Iran and Oman, although other ships carrying trade destined for Japan are still stuck there, and China has its ships stacked up waiting to be allowed to pass. Gulf countries are getting hammered in retaliatory strikes against US military facilities and oil terminals, following attacks by the US on Iran which are continuing daily.
My question is: what shared agenda do China and Russia have? The disputed Senkaku Islands are evacuating back to mainland Japan. Russia lost a war there around 1912, but what if Taiwan is less of a priority now that its annexation no longer appears such a simple walkover?
1. “The provisional surrender document signed by Donald Trump appeared to represent a triumph for Iran and indeed for the world; but neither the USA nor Israel has the slightest sense of honour and they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith.”
Honor (or “honour”) is for fools and chumps. Power is the only thing that matters. Surely the british know that!
2. Aoun craves American carrot and fears American stick.
Feral Finster,
Accurate summation: –
“Aoun craves American carrot and fears American stick.”
Well said.
Unfortunately, it is a tag phrase of mine, probably because it is applicable in so many situations.
Hmm. Craig wrote:
– “In this mercantilist view, closure of the Strait has two benefits for the USA.
– It disadvantages rival hydrocarbon suppliers
– It disadvantages rival industrial competitors in Europe and Asia who do get hydrocarbons through Hormuz.
– This is exactly the same logic behind the destruction of Nord Stream 2.“
My emphasis.
But Nord Stream 2 was destroyed under Biden; it was even Biden who announced that it would be destroyed. I have often noticed that USA/UK policy, especially foreign policy, persists despite changes of government or president.
So what is responsible for this turnabout from globalised trade to mercantilism? Has something fundamental changed, has some limit been reached or some threshold been crossed?
And why, under these new conditions, does supporting Israel remain “an absolute priority”? My working hypothesis was that Israel served as an attack dog and beachhead for USA+allies to control Caspian Basin hydrocarbons.
Maybe the dependence of military operations upon liquid fuel has to be factored in. The USA can operate on domestic fracking etc. but it is still unwise to permit rival geopolitical powers unhindered access to liquid fuel.
Plus there’s China. I’ve been reading that despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China has been keeping global oil prices down through its own frugality and relying upon its strategic reserve. So is this some sort of waiting game? Does some “phase 2” begin when China starts running short?
What a godawful mess.
Clark,
Yes an important point and yet another area where Trump is more a continuation of uniparty policy than is generally realised.
The switch to mercantilism is presumably a reaction to Chinese manufacturing superiority and to the threat to the supremacy of the dollar. Essentially what can no longer be dominated by neoliberalism should be dominated by force instead. But I need to think the mechanisms and sectoral interests through much more.
Hello Craig, I hope you and the family are well.
– “…yet another area where Trump is more a continuation of uniparty policy than is generally realised.”
Yes. Trump inherited from Biden the perfect conditions for supporting Israel’s expansionist plans – the Salafist takeover of Syria (via NATO operation Timber Sycamore), those enormous US “embassies” in Lebanon and Iraq, Corbyn replaced by Starmer and his mob, and probably a dozen things I can’t think of or don’t know about. And in the longer term, the devastation of Iraq and Libya. Plus of course we have General Wesley Clark’s “seven countries in five years”, though it took over twenty to have a go at Iran. It smells suspiciously like a long term plan, and just possibly this switch to mercantilism is part of it.
“And why, under these new conditions, does supporting Israel remain “an absolute priority”?”
Because blackmail material. And I am sure that it is not just Uncle Jeffrey.
China seems to be importing an immense amount of oil from Iran by rail – some reports say 60,000 barrels every 3-4 days , others a million barrels a day?!?!? The 10,000 km journey takes about two weeks – half that of a tanker journey. Tankers carry more but take longer. This railway has been operating since May 2025. China hasn’t fired a single shot. Never underestimate China.
“So what is responsible for this turnabout from globalised trade to mercantilism? ”
There has been no turnabout, we’re just hearing the quite bit said out loud.
Yes, the mask is off. But why now specifically?
Had the distinct displeasure of listening to a podcast where MRF (“Mother Russia” First) Prof. Mearsheimer (Orwell would have declared him a Socialist and Anarchist-betraying Communist) was host to a Russian general a couple of weeks ago. The general was a zealous “Christian” nut and openly threatening to “discipline Europe” by detonating a “handful of nukes around Europe”. He and Mearsheimer then further discussed the necessity to do so in a manner which meant Russia would “win” a nuclear war. Typically we believe no one could win a nuclear war because of the MAD doctrine.
The penny dropped when he said that “nukes are a gift from god”.
Russia has been encouraging the spread of ultra-“Christian”, ethno-nationalist, far right, white supremacist “indigenous white peoples of Northern Europe” nonsense – evangelising – and people like Stephen Yaxley-Lennon and Farage are just some of Putin’s agents. But the Evangelical nutjobs are also agents of Netanyahu.
In order to “win” a nuclear war, first it must look like they aren’t coming from Russia (or Belarus) directly so an agreement will be struck between Netanyahu and Putin whereby some of the Samson Option arsenal will be launched at Europe from the Iraqi Desert. Israel has secret bases there but most of the Public aren’t aware of that so to them missiles coming from Iraq would just look like missiles coming from Iran’s supportive neighbour. Netanyahu will just do a song and dance saying “see I told you! Iran does have nukes, it just hid them at it’s neighbours!” (oh and conveniently the neighbour we were supposedly warned had WMD…) and the general public will be persuaded to blame the Muslims in Iran.
This is the second part: having the far right either in power already or ready to take power and direct the public’s ire at Muslims, launching a full on 21st Century crusade alongside the IDF to guarantee the Greater Israel Project. Russia gets Ukraine. At the minimum.
Five nukes going off around Europe would look like the beginning of the Rapture (something with which the far right are obsessed). After the fallout, anyone who isn’t a “sufficiently devout” Christian will be excised from Society.
Yaxley-Lennon was visiting Moscow very recently. Probably their equivalent of the Los Alamos Target Committee…
That penny drop moment is when I realised what the primary purpose of the rise of the far right is.
I’m sorry to say you are as mad as a box of frogs, your Russaphobia is becoming rather embarrassing.
Curious; that’s not a denial of what the general said…(oh and Mearsheimer has since doubled/tripled down on it).
But yes, they’re both certainly certifiable Dr. Strangelove types!
Also curious that you insist I’m a Russophobe but not an Israelphobe? Why do you focus so much on Russia? If Russia’s threatening to nuke Europe, is Russia not Europhobic?
Yes, you’re right the russian general did discuss using nukes in Europe.
However, one has to take these comments in the context of what Europe, with US encouragement, is actually doing against Russia.
Currently, the UK and Germany are openly supplying nazi Ukraine with the capability to strike deep within Russia and looking to increase that capability, openly. I don’t recall parliament declaring that we are at war with Russia, so why is this happening ? Within Russia some factions are beginning to question Putin’s softly, softly approach where Europe is being allowed to openly attack Russia with no consequences.
Europe is hoping to instigate a war with Russia and have the USA ride in and save its corrupt ass. It’s no wonder some are questioning the diplomatic approach. Europe needs to either declare war or stop prodding the bear.
You must admit, Destroying the EU, NATO and Westminster would solve a lot of problems. 🙂
alan
June 29, 2026 at 22:56
How would you summarise the views of the Russkiy general: “The general was a zealous “Christian” nut and openly threatening to “discipline Europe” by detonating a “handful of nukes around Europe”?
Mad as a box of frogs is generous imo.
And being critical of Russian regime behaviour is not Russophobic.
Just as being critical of Israeli regime behaviour is not anti-Semitic.
If I were an IMPRESS-regulated journalist, alan, I would be investigating how much radiation protection a £5milion “gift” could get Farage…
Thank you for the ‘box of frogs’. Yes I, too, heard a Russian general promising nuclear wasteland to Britain and Europe if Russia is faced with a threat to its future viability as a nation. The daily assaults on its oil and gas infrastructure, launched from Ukraine, are now happening with weapons made in and delivered from factories in Britain and Europe. The example he gave, of Hezbollah procuring weapons likewise, was offered as a parallel, suggesting that the US and Israel would see such involvement as a partisan declaration of intent. Russia likewise sees this involvement as directly intended to seriously weaken Russia as a viable autonomous nation.
Harking back, yet again, to the plan outlined by Victoria Nuland so long ago, before the Maidan. We regret the sacrifice of the Ukrainian people and Fuck Europe. The overthrow of the elected government of Ukraine, she explained, was to draw Russia into an unwinnable war, which would distract it from the Middle East and deplete Russia of men and armaments. Europe’s currency, not being the dollar, is also seen as a rival currency to the dollar, and the knowledgeable Russian was also aware that men are not allowed to travel out of Germany without permission as they may be called up, because Germany has given up its civilian car making industry to China and switched to making weapons instead. He stated that WWIII would not be fought like WWII or WWI but that any declared intent to invade would be eradicated, as Russia has a vast proliferation of nuclear assault weapons which it will use at the first provocation. Totally MAD indeed.
Brought courtesy of Tucker Carlson
Alyson
June 30, 2026 at 07:50
Re ” declared intent to invade ” (Russia). Noone in Europe or the USA has any interest in invading Russia – a straw man.
Re ” men are not allowed to travel out of Germany without permission as they may be called up”, the Guardian “has men aged 17 to 45 would have to apply for authorisation to leave Germany for more than three months” but that “a ministry spokesperson said the new legislation was designed to establish a framework for conscription if required, making it necessary to know potential conscripts’ whereabouts in case of urgent need.”
“The spokesperson indicated that approval for periods abroad would be routine as long as conscription was not in force and Germany was not facing a security emergency.”
All very reasonable. After all Germany is faced with an existential threat from the East.
Indeed. Very reasonable as you say….. And now Finland has joined NATO and is keen to host nuclear weapons right along its border with Russia, so Russia now has to consider building defences along that whole 1500 miles…. Very unreasonable, I’m sure you would say….
My view remains that both Ukraine and Russia should be allowed to request membership of the EU and demonstrate their willingness and ability to conform to all its requirements.
We are being played
Read The Fraud, by Paul Holden. The pieces are all in place
Alyson. Really ? The EU is a seriously corrupt and undemocratic organisation. Why would Russia want to join that shitshow ? Ukraine will never join because it would seriously affect the available profits that those at the top can steal. However, OTOH Russia has suggested joining NATO three times in the past [1954,1991,2000], but they wern’t interested, because NATO exists purely to attack the USA’s major competitors: Russia and China.
Remember, Russia is the allocated enemy, it’s the law to hate them.
” All very reasonable. After all Germany is faced with an existential threat from the East.”.
I ask this in all seriousness…..is there something wrong with you, I mean, your capacity for rational thought? It’s quite a conundrum, ’cause you are able to construct grammatically sound sentences, but the actual content/meaning of those sentences are often like what could be imagined an alien from a distant planet somehow marooned on Earth might come out with if it’s only source of information was the Daily Mail/Tellytubbygraph/Express/Guardian etc.
If ” Germany is faced with an existential threat BLAH……” why do you think that might be, Mr Thomas Jerome Newton 2.
Who is it that has been making constant threats to attack Russia? Who is it that – despite it’s Economy heading inexorably bogwards – is planning the biggest build-up in WMD since the last time it’s unresolved pathological Will To Power unleashed hitherto unimaginable-in-scale/ degree horror on the world – most grievously against Russia? What utterly fckn pathetic Slave State allowed the U.S savages to destroy it’s vital supply of cheap energy?
Take all the time you need to answer these questions, your interplanetary taxi won’t be showing-up any time soon.
Has Craig, and others, not laid-out quite clearly what is going with the US of Israel’s global energy domination intent and the part the deliberate provocation of Russia, the unprovoked attack on Iran, decimation of Gaza/Lebanon/Syria ( and, effe ctively, Europe ) etc play in this insane U.S. o. I megalomania? Yet you and your fellow Putinphobic monomaniacs still – like little yappy poodles – can’t see beyond your idee fixe and insist it’s all Russia – rather, in your obedient insistence on personalising the situation – Putin’s fault. It’s really something to observe how, ostensibly, in other respects, intelligent people can come out with such clearly absurd/ plain wrong perceptions when the evidence against those ludicrously incorrect views is easily available.
One * last * question……let’s assume ” The West ” succeeds in * defeating * Russia, China, Iran, ie all the ” Designated Enemies ” it has so assiduously cultivated ( to be enemies ). What do you think would happen next? Maybe you think an era of unparalleled peace, harmony & prosperity for all would ensue? Yankee beneficence extending to every corner of the Globe ( odd phrase that, eh? how can a globe have corners? best ask a Flat-Earther I suppose ).
I reckon it is FAR more likely, without any nation to challenge it’s Military/Economic Hegemony the U.S of I would be a global despot the like of which even George Orwell could not have imagined
The world has never been in such peril as it currently is from these nasty, evil, mentally ill people. Please stop trying to – directly or indirectly – justify them
Robert Hughes
June 30, 2026 at 11:28
“Brevity is the soul of wit.” (Hamlet, W. Shakespeare)
Seriously, you ask “Who is it that has been making constant threats to attack Russia?”.
Answer, no-one. No-one at all.
@ JK re Ducks
” no-one, no-one at all ”
Except…..” In the 38-minute recording, military officers discuss the question of how the Taurus long-range cruise missiles could be used by Ukraine. A debate has been taking place in Germany over whether to supply the missiles as Ukraine faced setbacks on the battlefield after two years of war, and with military aid from the United States being held up in Congress.” What does that illustrate if not aggression against Russia? The fact the shitebags are using Ukraine to progress it’s military objectives is neither here nor there. It’s German aggression against Russia: plainly.
Not to mention, as a virulently Anti-Russia part of the NATO Axis of Cosplay Cowboys, the country that hatched the Nazi Final Solutionists & 1000 year Reich demented fantasists ( but they’re cool now ’cause…..um…just because right! don’t ask stupid questions: in fact, don’t ask ANY questions ) they are right in there, continually pouring petrol on the Proxy War.
And let’s recall that other Brit Banana Bender former * Defence * Vicar – Wallace’s unequivocal statement of intent …..” this country ( England-As-Britain ) WILL be at war with Russia by…….blah x blah “. Not a German saying this, but a fellow Nae Toe * member * – who are all reading from the same script. And who is writing this script? The same swine who profit from the blood, suffering & death of others
“After all Germany is faced with an existential threat from the East.”
Yes – if the Bundesbank, Bundeswehr, and BND take their eyes off the ball for a moment, they’ll wake up in western Novorossiya and the Russian army will be washing their boots in the Rhine. No-one will talk about the Goethe Institute any more, or even be allowed to speak the language it once used. It will be the two-headed eagle from then on. None of this single-headed stuff.
Any politically-savvy American watching what’s just happened to Starmer will understand that he has been primaried.
The even worse part about the penny drop moment is that the primary purpose of the so-called “grown ups in the room” (read: Starmer et al) is to prepare the way for the far right.
The State Threats Bill he’s introduced on his way out (and turning the screws on The Canary) is a way of disinhibiting the public from accepting the fascists worse than Farage in charge with minimum resistance because, well, “they can hardly be worse than the Starmer fascists”…
Interesting opinion, thank you. The American administration (if it can be called an administration) never admits defeat, It will employ every vindictive measure for however long it takes to eradicate Iran. The Zionist regime doesn’t even recognise that Iranians are human so genocide is not genocide to them; peace talks are just a tool in order to prolong the bloodlust. Aoun understands this, he knows Lebanon is hostage to whatever cruel state imposes it’s diktats with the knowledge that no international body will ever help the Lebanon. Aoun is attempting to reduce civilian deaths as both aggressors with support from NATO glorify in the mass murder of civilians. The Lebanon has few friends, has few options, so until those who claim to support peace actually do something all the Lebanon has is Aoun and Hezbollah.
Experience suggests there can be no peace in the Middle East so long as the colonial state of “Israel”, expansionist in its nature, continues to exist.
The latest US trade deal coming to EU.
“The US has warned the EU that American liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be diverted elsewhere unless Brussels eases planned methane emissions regulations.”9
The Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive will require any company exporting gas to the EU to:-
Human Rights Protection: Ensure companies respect human rights in their operations and supply chains.
Environmental Sustainability: Address environmental impacts and promote sustainable practices.
Corporate Accountability: Establish legal obligations for companies to prevent adverse impacts.
The US, Qatar and Nigeria have objected claiming that the directive is too difficult to comply with.
If the EU was still importing gas from Russia then Russia would be expected to abide by the terms of the directive.
Which states already conform to these regulations? How would the EU police these regulations?
The EU could be in danger of having nowhere to import LNG from if it insists on these conditions.
Russia and Iran has plenty of oil and gas and would happily supply it to Europe probably at a much cheaper rate than the Yankee popsicle fuel. The shortages are all politically motivated. We could have cheaper fuels if our leaders let us !
They can only impose fines on the companies involved. How they’d enforce them I don’t know.
This whole Ukraine thing has been very well designed to put Europe in a bind. We should not be allowing any foreign country to own arms factories in the UK. Only British tax payers should be allowed to own land. The nonsense of local people having to use bolt cutters to access their beach, because the Crown Estate is being devolved, really underlines the risks to our national sovereignty, and having privately owned Israeli companies buying a factory on MOD land and using MOD channels to deny access to areas where they are testing their weapons before using them on civilians in Gaza, just should not be lawful.
We have a problem with corporate and foreign predatory capitalism here in the UK, and no coordinated actual national defence capabilities for use to defend against any threat which might arise. Brexit laid the groundwork for this seeming takeover of national industry and defence planning, and we have handed over all our sensitive data to these high risk offshore ventures.
Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. The rot was already deep many years before the british people spoke.
Thatcher, then Blair starting the ‘outsourcing’ of our capabilities overseas, then Cameron and crew accelerated the great sell off [betrayal]. In the 1970s, all the defence companies in the UK were british, by the 2000s most of the UK defence capability was american owned, and that’s the same with most industries. We don’t make anything, now we can’t make anything, we forgot how to. Now the USA and Israel dictate our policies and steal our profits, and as Trump is discovering, once you give away your manufacturing ability it’s next to impossible to get it back. We are managed by complete idiots which is fitting because the UK has become flabby and lazy, destined to just deliver pizzas and watch reality TV whilst our sovereignity leaks away.
Craig and several others know how this feels.
“In the height of irony, I was detained at John Lennon International AirPort in Liverpool, England by anti-terrorism police concerned about my opposition to the Genocide on Gaza and the war on Iran. They seized my phone, computer, fingerprints and DNA sample. More to come . . ”
.https://nitter.poast.org/danielmkovalik
Probably several people reading this very thread know how it feels. The British police still haven’t returned my computer and comms equipment they seized two years ago…
Part of how it feels is that the targeted person doesn’t know what will happen next, which is intentional it seems…
Brian.
Probably better to not get it back, it would probably be bugged to high heaven, and contain small listening devices to boot.
@RoS – Very probably. But if I ever do get it all back, I’ll be happy to let someone on the good side examine it.
I recall your video from Lebanon looking at the new US embassy. There appears to be a remarkable dearth of information. Would it be relevant to know when the first talks to start the project began? And, eg, when and how purchased, and whether there was any publication of reasons/justifications for its size?
If I have read these things correctly China’ energy costs for production are 1/6th of the cost of the US’s.
In my opinion this explains why the US wants to get back it’s hegemony over energy supplies and prices.
If anyone thinks about it the US was the ultimate hegemon between 1945 and 1972.
If it had been a benign hegemon it could have taught the world (by example ) that Democracy is a wonderful
thing.
Instead 27 years later it ended up going off the Gold Standard and turned the Dollar into a ‘ Special Privilege ‘
currency for global exchange- sales – oil trades etc.
Obviously it wants to keep that privilege but , because it no longer makes as much as it did in material finished goods between 1945 and 1972 and probably never will again it is now mainly a country that makes money on money ( Finance – not material goods).
Of course China want to keep that ‘privileged ‘ position and for that to continue they know (and the Western World should know too) that if the US or anyone else tries to stop the flow of oil/gas and anything else across the Big Blue Oceans the this is fight that has to be had to prevent that critical energy flow from being blocked.
Unless the US is going to build loads of militarised and armed Boarding Ships to literally pinch everyone else’s oil and gas on The High Seas then it’s not going happen.
The problem for the US is that it is becoming a fading hegemon in the world like the UK/France and Germany are local hegemons in Europe.
Iran has won the battle and it is being watched across the developing world and China and Russia won’t play the old game.
I have no doubt at all that the US and Israel and the Europeans will be back for another attack at Iran and they fancy their chances in taking on Russia ( the Russians though have to wait until 2030 though as the European side won’t be ready ’til then) and hopefully by then there will be somebody more sensible in The Whitehouse and they can all go back to where they were before 2022 having Regime Changed Russia.
The case seems to be that the BRICS countries have a Plan – might not be perfect but a Plan never the less.
The West has a nostalgic view of wishing that things could go back to where they were ( pick your own date depending on your country)
Without massive amounts of investment in the Public Sectors and The Private Sectors of all the Western economy’s the only way isn’t up – it’s down.
China’s enormous progress due to massive investment over at least 30 years has given it a possibly unassailable lead in production and some technological innovations.
The West views that State and private Sector investment as ‘ Anti – Competitive ‘
I would call it well worked plan.
The only plan the West has is to obstruct the BRICS and its following emerging nations and if that doesn’t work go to war as Trade Wars usually produce Real Wars.
And if the wars get out of hand we will all be in a Nuclear War – where if you know your nuclear onions if it goes full on there will be no such thing as Hegemony or Sovereignty as there will be nothing Hegemonise or Sovereign over except piles of dust.
Oh and there will be no markets to sell to as all the retail buyers are dead.
Of course though if you are 82 and on your way out soon – why would you worry?
Mark, try to figure out how an entity would “win” a nuclear war and you’ll understand where we’re now at.
The reality is that one EMP weapon detonated in space would be enough to destroy the digital infrastructure we all rely on, without wiping out the people.
But, if the USA and Russia went head to head nuclear, then we would enter the age of the cockroach.
There is a preponderance of psychopaths in charge who insist that the World is overpopulated (which is untrue; the issue is equitable distribution of resources). Of course, those supremely selfish psychopaths won’t be having themselves or their own offspring “culled”, nor are they willing to more equitably distribute resources. This is not particularly new – I have seen the same rhetoric promoted for over 25 years.
@Nota – It’s been spouted since Thomas Malthus, and then in the 1960s there was Paul Ehrlich. The cull is coming, though. Constant cries of “wolf” don’t mean the wolf isn’t coming.
Good point that the rich tend to have more children than the poor – in a country like Britain anyway – as they screw up their faces at the very existence of the “general public”, whom they see as “rough”, “common”, subhuman, prone to copulate like rabbits, and, above all, unhygienic.
Meanwhile the British regime announces a defence “investment” plan.
This is what the regime calls it – shortened to the “Dip” if they want to make it sound like a dance move or a haircut – and all the journalists are calling it the same thing. Never mind that it’s nothing like an investment.
It involves a large-scale expenditure on new nuclear submarines, new nuclear warheads, and nuclear-capable aircraft.
Anyone spot the pattern there?
Oh and there’s tuppence ha’penny for some drones too. Naturally, drones are what regime media have been told to lead on.
Basically this is a More Nukes administration, and the replacement administration under a “nighttime economy supporting” t-shirt wearer who loves the Occupation regime in Palestine (and, as we are incessantly and stupefyingly told, comes from “the North”, meaning the north of England) … will also be a More Nukes administration.
Journalists are publicly saying “dunno” about where the extra expenditure is going to come from. This is strange given that some of them are probably down from cocaine highs often enough to remember a prime minister of the distant past called Liz Truss…
I hope some Scottish people make the point that Andy Burn-babies only comes from “the North” if you’re thinking of England.
Nota Tory Fanboy
There is a theory currently in The West that the closer you can get Nuclear Missiles to Moscow means the First Strike will prevent retaliation from the Struck.
This is one of the fates of Ukraine.
It is closer to Moscow and by some kind of magic you could knock out all of Russia’s 5.5k Nukes.
If you know about Dead Man’s Handles on a train all the big nuke holders will have systems that will operate on the basis of :
If you don’t hear from me in one minute take it as read we are not here.
We have been nuked.
Then the protocol will be to fire back.
Putin has said that The West doesn’t fear their Nuclear Arsenal.
Russia is faking and wouldn’t dare and very dangerous thoughts like that is what The West is thinking.
I’m not sure that Russia would fire nukes first but it is possible that so called ‘ Dirty Bombs ‘ could be used by Ukraine or Russia.
There is a reason why it was called MAD in the early 1980’s.
If it was MAD then – t is certainly MADDER now.
Only one mistake is needed (and there have been quite a few in the past) and it all kicks off worldwide.
The bombing of the Russian Radar Systems and one of their Nuclear Aircraft sites by The West could have been ( as far as The Russians knew ) the prelude to a Nuclear attack by NATO.
Fortunately the Russians did not react to that attack.
Fire is certainly being played with here by NATO and Ukraine.
Nuking is a great way to avoid a prolonged and costly war – the trouble is – no-one can start nuking without the other side knowing what’s going on these days.
Possibly it could all happen in one mistaken minute and that’s all it needs to put the whole world in danger and everyone who lives on the planet.
“If you know about Dead Man’s Handles on a train all the big nuke holders will have systems that will operate on the basis of :
If you don’t hear from me in one minute take it as read we are not here.
We have been nuked.
Then the protocol will be to fire back.”
…
I refer you to: “That penny drop moment is when I realised what the primary purpose of the rise of the far right is.”
Can anyone explain this? I have been wondering from the article what impact Western backed, Israel supporting regime change in Syria is having on Iran’s ability to sustain its support for Palestine through Hezbollah, which Assad appeared to support but President al – Sharaa does not, while protesting mildly against Israeli occupation of Syrian territory.
Interrogation of Co-Pilot produced a denial that Al – Jolani (term that I used) was in charge of Syria at all. It seemed to be providing out of date information. So I looked at SANA brand new and glossy since the coup, which reported Al – Jolani and government meetings with UK and EU delegations, and other stuff showing how well Syria is doing under its western oriented new regime. https://sana.sy/en/
I then copied from SANA into Co – Pilot this. “If President al-Sharaa is not actually President is SANA’s report of the 30.06.2026, “Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa received on Tuesday Turkish Interior Minister, Mustafa Çiftci, and an accompanying delegation at the People’s Palace in Damascus” incorrect or disinformation?”
I was shocked and rather incredulous to read the following reply.
“1. SANA did not publish such a report.
There is no record—in SANA’s Arabic feed, English feed, or syndicated wires—of a 30 June 2026 article stating:
“Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa received on Tuesday Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftci at the People’s Palace in Damascus.”
This phrasing is not consistent with SANA’s style, sourcing, or political line.
SANA’s actual reporting on 30 June 2026 concerns:
Assad’s meetings with Russian and Iranian delegations,
• domestic economic and reconstruction issues,
• military and security developments,
• and routine government announcements.
There is no mention of Ahmad al Sharaa (al Jolani) as president, nor of any Turkish minister visiting Damascus.
2 – 3 —–(further explanations)
4. What you can safely conclude
The report is not correct. It is not a genuine SANA publication. It is not consistent with any verified political reality. It is almost certainly fabricated or misattributed disinformation.
You should confirm with trusted sources, but every authoritative dataset—UN, EU, Arab League, major wire services, SANA’s own archive—shows:
• Assad remains President of Syria.
• Jolani remains the de facto ruler of Idlib only.
• No Turkish minister visited Damascus to meet Jolani”.
So what actually is or is not happening in and with Syria that is impacting on the USA / Israel war on Iran? Who is controlling the information? Can we trust anything that we are told? Or is this just faulty A1 algorithms?
GIGO.
Use your existing mental capabilities, don’t rely on an American software program.
My interpretation is that although Al–Jolani was put into place by the west he is not going to entangle himself in Israel’s games. There may very well be some agreement with Turkey regarding oil, but Turkey is not currently pro Israel. So, If Russia and Iran can work some diplomatic magic, Syria may become an effective buffer against Israeli expansion. Who knows ?
Assad is neutered, Russia will protect him but won’t let him interfere.
Check out the photos and videos at Mustafa Çiftci’s X / Twitter account. He’s clearly been visiting a Middle Eastern nation recently.
Didn’t mercantilism fizzle out before because it descended into a form of war of all against all, with extremely wasteful pillaging and piracy as its idiotic-sociopathic proponents pursued what they supposed was a zero-sum game where others had to lose for them to gain?
China’s policy of maximising exports and Trump’s tariffs have been described as mercantilism, the conservative American Enterprise Institute described Trump’s policy as showing “shocking ignorance about how the global economy works, and shocking incompetence in the planning and execution of economic policy”.
Latest geopolitical discussion with Solovyov and friends.
https://youtu.be/QE4ziUE5Z7g?is=XQruxcO574YdT0Jk
Surprisingly positive about peace with the West and an end to war.
(On Russia’s terms of course.)
Don’t know whether to laugh or cry but Russia Media Monitor and Steve Rosenberg’s regular review of Russian newspapers give a clearer picture than the self-appointed experts and propagandists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dib2QrruB4
With Rosenberg in mind its BBC appointed.
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Steve_Rosenberg
Republicofscotland
July 1, 2026 at 16:29
You think that Rosenberg (a fat Jewish homosexual as someone here called him a while back) is faking the Russian newspaper articles that he is translating and quoting?
I hadn’t thought of that… 🤣
“I hadn’t thought of that”
You just did.
Republicofscotland
July 1, 2026 at 18:12
““I hadn’t thought of that”
You just did.”
That was sarcasm RoS.
Do you really believe that Rosenberg is faking the Russian newspaper articles that he is translating and quoting?
Really?
Another take on Solovyov’s banter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrX-hxD9NoI
Pears Morgaine
July 1, 2026 at 13:40
I was being sarcastic. The speakers on the Russian TV show that I linked to were mad as a bag of frogs.
I apologise to anyone misled.
I got that and agree. In different circumstances you could be forgiven for mistaking it for satire.
“Comparative advantage” is a staple of bourgeois economics teaching. A reminder may be needed that any surplus product additional to fulfilling the needs of the producers must itself be produced … by the producers. Nothing is produced by free trade or by any other kind of trade.
World output has been shrinking for some time. Hardly surprising when according to bourgeois commentators 20-25% of it is accounted for by “financial services”, which for any sane person aren’t any kind of “product” at all.
“To understand the American position, it is important to realise two key points:
Greater Israel is an absolute priority
Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not a US priority”
This is entirely correct. Moreover, to understand the uk/european position, it is important to realize three key points.
The War On Russia is an absolute priority
Europeans need America to fight for them
The Americans sure have a thing for Israel”
The US’s absolute priority is to take down China
The problem for Trump is that ( similar to Israel ) he doesn’t have many successes under his winning belt
except for stealing a Sovereign President of a Sovereign country and nicking a few oil tankers and closing the
Straits.
The experts call it ‘ Over stretch ‘
Obviously The Chinese are watching these antics with a mixture of disbelief and laughter.
An apparent example of Iranian disinformation reported by the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cvge0qd5n3no
A BBC report on two Romanians, agents of Iran, convicted of stabbing a journalist.