The Phantom Ceasefire is simply Trump’s off ramp. He announces a ceasefire and bows out, having been advised that regime change would only be achievable with extreme military commitment and massive cost in lives and treasure.
You can never trust the Israelis – or indeed the Americans – with either a ceasefire or a negotiation. Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official had confirmed the ceasefire had been agreed. Israel then repeated precisely what I had seen in Beirut – massive carpet bombing of the city just before the 3.30am deadline for the Israel/Iran ceasefire.
That picture is Beirut literally minutes before the ceasefire came into effect. Israel then proceeded to violate the ceasefire anyway, and has done so virtually every single day in the past months of ceasefire, often several times a day, racking up over 1,000 violations.
The Iranians very sensibly responded to last night’s carpet bombing with a missile salvo. Israel has claimed a violation of the ceasefire (as ever the aggressor is the “victim”) and fighting has resumed.
I believe this may be for the best. Although it does benefit Netanyahu – who for domestic reasons is desperate to avoid peace – the Israelis would never have observed a ceasefire and would have used it to replenish their exhausted missile defence systems, with help from the USA, UK and the other genocide participants.
The Iranian “attack” on the US airbase in Qatar was purely performative. They used old, expendable, low-level missiles certain to be shot down and warned that they were coming. It was part of the structure of Trump’s off ramp.
So the question now is whether Netanyahu can drag Trump back into the war. I am hopeful he will not. Trump will be able to say that he has, with his strikes on Iran, redeemed the hundreds of millions of Zionist dollars that got him elected. I guess we will discover in the next week or two whether that money really is all that was motivating him, or whether Musk was right about Trump’s appearance in the Epstein files. For what it is worth, I think that Trump’s street cunning and independent access to East European models were probably enough to keep him out of that trap. But we will see,
Without the USA, Netanyahu has opened a war that will not remain popular very long. Keeping Israel’s settler colonists – who are hilariously cowardly when faced with anybody who can actually fight back – locked in as human shields is going to have interesting social consequences for the terrorist entity.
Meanwhile the shooting of Palestinians in the Gaza food queues and the dispossessions and killings in the West Bank continue apace.
The UK government is sending planes to bring back dual UK/Israeli nationals. That includes active IDF participants in genocide.
FCDO official guidance reads:
Lammy has made a decision to airlift back those Israeli passport-carrying colonists who are also British nationals. This directly contradicts British government longstanding policy of not assisting dual nationals in their country of second nationality. This policy is normally rigorously enforced, even (and perhaps especially) in times of war. There is a huge contrast between the red carpet for Israeli war criminals returning to the UK and the appalling treatment of thousands of British Sudanese families in the 2023 evacuation from Khartoum.
The Iranians have already done a great service to humanity by puncturing the facade of Israeli invincibility. They have also laid bare the appalling Zionism of Arab ruling elites and their sectarian propagandists, in a way which they believe the Arab populations understand. The ramifications of the last two weeks following Israel’s attack on Iran will play out over years. But this is part of the process of the disintegration of the colonial settler state.
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“…Israel’s settler colonists – who are hilariously cowardly when faced with anybody who can actually fight back.”
As a self-professed historian, I assume you meant that Israeli cowardice developed after the 1948 War, the Six Day War, War of Attrition and Yom Kippur?
“War of Attrition”.
I see, you’re a very well educated commenter. Yes, like in meatloaf, all these ingredients must be combined (and shaken, not stirred, like in a good Martini)…
A “self-professed historian”? IMHO this does not do Ambassador Craig Murray justice. I would have said “a person with a passion for History, who made himself expert at University by voracious reading, graduated with the highest honours, and later became an independent research scholar and author of books on History in his own right, on Africa, and on an adventurer in the British Indian empire”.
I haven’t begun to talk about his sky-high career as a diplomat, or his impressively many-sided activism afterwards, including an autobiography adapted for stage and television and still in print, and a well-known blog. I’ll leave that to others. 😊
Craig doesn’t seem to share your admiration for the great RAF airlift of genocidal IDF rapists and baby killers.
My admiration is for the airlift, not war crimes. I hope the torturers and murderers of Sde Teiman, or other war criminals, have Justice catch up with them.
Anybody who uses the meme “war of attrition” is just an illiterate joker.
Besides, not many historians are former AMBASSADORS. So obviously, the owner of this blog knows very little competition.
Jetlag is something. Ask the American B-2 pilots who flew over 30 hours to Iran and back. But even in business class, a New York to London trip can be extremely exhausting. In any case, we’re so glad that new posts now come almost daily!
‘War of Attrition’ was the series of conflicts, mainly between Israel and Egypt, between 1967 and 1970.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Attrition
Never believe Wikipedia. This site is sponsored by Intelligence Services, and edited by ignorant morons.
Whenever my daughter who teaches at college level finds anything from Wikipedia in her students’ essays, she gives them a D grade. Same with AI production…
I’d imagine that your daughter hands out those D grades for plagiarism, Melrose, not because Wiki is wrong. May I ask how she knows when her students are using AI? Is it woman’s intuition?
You should ask her.
My guess is that AI bots give you a very similar answer if you ask them the same question twice. Or 15 times.
Besides, you don’t have to be WRONG to deserve a D grade.
“Never believe Wikipedia.”
I googled 1969 War of Attrition and the first five hits all referred to the inconclusive war between Israel and Egypt. That’s the name history has given it, whether you like it or not. Hasn’t anyone ever suggested to you the advice, “When in a hole, stop digging”?
Thanks for your reply Melrose. I’m not going to ask you to doxx her. The same chatbot would probably give you the same answer if you gave it exactly the same prompt. The problem is there’s a lot of prompts people could use to write the essay, not to mention an increasing number of bots. For what it’s worth, as well as forcing educational assessment back into the examination hall, I reckon AI is going to rip through the creative industries like an F5 tornado in the next couple decades (nukes permitting).
He never answers his bloody phone though.
He’s talking about the Genocide in Gaza, snipering toddlers, wrecking ICU units, posing with the toys of babies they’ve murdered, wearing dresses of women they’ve raped and murdered. Yet found incredibly wanting as men when confronted with Hamas or Hezbollah.
As an admirer of settler colonialism, I’m guessing the U stands for Unionist. I’m sure Craig gives “Northern Ireland” an even shorter remaining timespan than the imperialists’ loyal little Jewish Ulster in West Asia.
No doubt Craig does give Northern Ireland a limited lifespan as he has written in the past about his desire for Irish unity.
However, if one takes the ‘settler-colonialism’ in Ireland as having commenced in the 17th century, then question of lifespan is not one which will serve well for comparisons with Israel.
Yeah, at that point you may as well talk about Scottish colonisers of Dal Riata.
Hell, the bloody Zulu’s are less native to South Africa than the Afrikaners by that standard. Of course consistency on the “settler” issue is scarce, for parochial & idealogical reasons.
Well said Cowards agaiast Real Warriors
No – the settlers’ cowardice was not only developed after those wars but it was evident during them too.
Unless you think school shooters are brave.
Brian Red
As far as I can see being a Soldier in any Army is actually being a Soldier.
An actual one – not a toy one.
The Occupiers in The occupied Settlements have been given weaponry in the past like a Rural Militia.
Yet the same defenders of The Faith who are too busy reading religious texts don’t want to ( or refuse to ) do reserve duty.
Not much fighting for your beliefs there then?
The very same are the ones who parade round with guns attacking Old people and Kids.
Maybe they film it to show how tough they are?
The way I read the current situation is, that Trump knows Israel will be almost defenceless in around 10 days.
Iran can fire at will if they wish to do so.
I hear that the defence missiles can not be made quickly enough to fully re-stock.
I suspect we will be hearing from Zelensky and his friends in a few days about the US wanting their defence missiles back and to add insult o injury maybe some European kit too.
Despite the BBC’s marvellous efforts to pretend that Israel is winning and Netanyahu is deliriously happy you generally only call a Ceasefire due to fear of losing in the future or you are losing currently.
I suspect the latter and Trump may be going through a Save Israel Mode.
Trump’s personal ceasefire will not hold and it will kick off again very soon.
The question for the US then is what can they do to save Israel?
Because the sooner it starts up again – the sooner Tel -Aviv and Haifa will be pummelled again.
No expert at all on weapons like missiles but the bigger and wider the plume(s) of smoke the bigger the missile I would think.
On that basis note carefully the single plume of smoke at the main target of Fordaw.
Not impressive at all.
Still not convinced that the Bat planes went anywhere into Iran.
Unless they were allowed to of course?
Shifty game politics and war.
Yet again the ball is in Trumps hands.
He can rob Peter ( who he no longer cares about ) to pay Paul ( Israel) with defensive missiles.
Depends on how many were sent in the first place probably.
One thing’s for sure due to his non re- industrialisation of the USA nothing will be produced in the USA.
Except big inflation if this latest bluff goes all wrong.
At Fordow the idea is that bunker busting missiles punched deep holes and then exploded underground. They have nowhere near the explosive force of some of the nuclear bombs that have been exploded underground in tests, or even of say the massive bang in the port of Beirut in 2020.
REally Irish, the neighbours had little armed forces and Israel attacked everyone first with the secretly built up air force and army.
The US backed Zionist State Terrorist group campaign of extermination and expulsion against a defenceless civilian population in 1947-1949 cemented the well-deserved reputation for cowardice.
The amazing achievement of 1967 of being backed by the most powerful military in the world, to attack a poorly defended country.
US backed Zionist State Terrorist group are an accomplished Terrorist group with expertise in Bombing, Assassination, Propaganda but no military ability.
You are cowards terrorists with a dressing up box full of American weapons, without any ability to stand toe to toe and win.
You have a semi-professional airforce simply because they fall out of the sky if they are as shambolic as your ground forces.
The US has poured billions into your pockets for decades and you are getting spanked by homebrew rockets built underground by sandal wearing inmates of a concentration camp you’ve established a hermatic seal over land/air/sea/electromagnetic domain.
You are more dedicated to public ownership than Karl Marx.
Thanks, Craig (and especially for your previous article illustrating how zionists and their stooges have infiltrated most of the key institutions in the UK). You may know her, but I do recommend Avigail Abarbanel’s articles on Substack.
https://avigail.substack.com
Avigail was born in Israel, which she subsequently abandoned and renounced, but has kept up a flow of insightful articles based on her knowledge of Hebrew and her analysis of the sociopathic mindset of the Israeli public sphere. She formerly wrote some standout pieces for Mondoweiss, which is where I first came across her work. She is now based in Scotland which may be of interest to you.
Her piece on the deteriorating economic and social climate inside Israel, never reported or acknowledged in the West, is particularly interesting :
https://avigail.substack.com/p/whats-going-on-inside-israel-right
Thanks for the links, the article “What’s Going On Inside Israel Right Now?” is a real eye-opener.
MJ
Yes good article.
And the Hostages??????????????
Ian, thank you for introducing me to Avigail’s work. Looks like I will be reading her articles regularly from now on.
What does Abarbanel mean by this bit?
“The rich, capitalist classes in Israel are also looking at how they can profiteer from all of this, how Gaza and the West Bank can be ‘developed’ as they become inseparable parts of Israel. Whether they are Zionists or not these people see dollar signs.”
(Emphasis added.)
Is this some strange use of the term “Zionist” to mean not a person who supports the existence of a Jewish state, but rather a person who does so because they are a religious nut?
“But this is part of the process of the disintegration of the colonial settler state.”
One sincerely hopes that is the case. The Zionists control the global banking system – and own the Federal Reserve in the USA. Hence the subservience of politicians everywhere. It is also their weakest and most vulnerable pillar. It wouldn’t be difficult to bring the entire edifice down.
I suspect that if there are any ‘violations’ of the ceasefire from Iran, it will be rogue Mossad agents firing missiles from just inside the Iranian border.
I don’t believe Israel would ever agree to a ceasefire if they had not completely won the battle.
This is just an excuse for them to continue “defending themselves”, and they believe the West is so gullible they will fall for it. Presumably the BBC and the Guardian will.
There’s non so gullible as them who hear what their jobs depend on them believing, to paraphrase an old saying.
Musk Trump Epstein – we know Trump is in the flight logs – that was not a secret.
So Epsteing revealed nothing, just his bad temper.
So the pressure is already on Trump to enter potentially WW3 to help Israel again.
He will do it – He has no real option but to do so (other than being a real hero).
Michael, a slave cannot refuse the commands of his owner, and Trump is a bought and paid for catamite of the Zionist gang.
Trump was certainly under no pressure to cease fire from the other wing of US oligarchy’s bird of prey.
People with long memories will recall that the entire Democratic Party/Kamala Harris presidential campaign was based on calling Trump a maniacal fascist and racist, and equating him to Hitler.
But over the last week the Democrats displayed zero interest in limiting Hitler’s war powers, because the party’s senior leadership is just as loyal to AIPAC and supports what Trump did.
re: Iran and women
Since Craig touched the topic a few days ago I pasted a couple of posts from Twitter on this subject which I ran across yesterday in the new Iran thread in the Forum here:
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/forums/topic/the-propaganda-war-with-iran/#post-104461
I love this blog, but can you please spare us the constant vision of BBC News screen grabs, or other MSM horror shows. Those who can stomach such disturbing spectacles can do it on their own. Please.
No matter what some the dross in here says about this article, it’s an excellent one in my eyes, and several others eyes as well.
The Zionists and Yanks can’t be trusted – the Zionists are committing genocide and have attacked Lebanon and Syria in recent times – they think because they have an American attack dog in the form of the, USA that thy can bomb, murder and commit genocide with impunity.
Iran can’t let its guard down for a second .
We all know, from the evidence of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, that a ‘ceasefire’ means that the side Israel has attacked must stop retaliating and defending itself (since no other state has the ‘right’ to defend itself according to them). And that they will take the advantage of such a ‘ceasefire’ to continue to shoot, kill and destroy the opposing party and their infrastructure, particularly hospitals, schools and homes. They, after, have ‘god-given’ right to destroy others, and do it with the looting of the American taxbase. Such paragons of virtue, such an example to demagogues, fascists and authoritarians everywhere. Especially when you have your agents and lobbies inside every Western institution, and threaten the jobs and livelihoods of anyone who merely voices an opinion, or evidence, that they don’t want the population to hear.
Here is a classic example of the paranoid cult-like victimhood that operates at senior levels of management and public institutions. A NHS doctor has been censured for the ‘crime’ of having a picture in the background with a watermelon in it. Really. Supposedly the red and green of the melon signify Palestinian support. Which in itself is, of course, not a crime – yet, although clearly these institutions wish to make it so. In fact why would he have to hide this alleged support, if it is not a crime to say that he supports Palestinians in their appalling suffering under genocide? The fact that these zionist stooges and accomplices believe people creep around making secret signs to one another merely confirms that they already think and act as if open and honest Palestinian support is proscribed, and therefore it must be disguised. The very epitome of paranoid victimhood and the cult of zionist thinking, not to mention its arrogant assumption that people who do so, without any suggestion of supporting violence or terrorism, should be silence and sacked.
It is a monstrous exercise in thought policing, suppression of legitimate discussion and debate, all taken by a foreign state which, whatever Starmer and Lammy claim, is in no way an ‘ally’ of the British people – how could they be when they assume the right to grossly interfere in the internal politics of this country?
You can support these doctors here, a very worthwhile cause in my opinion, as they seek to take their management to court – although the legal system in this country is also compromised, we can hope that the law is observed for once. It is an important principle:
https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/bhs4p/
Lots of heartening comments by people who have donated.
You know what. Herbie Hancock was stopped at border control several times
https://youtu.be/Qt8agHeK1as?si=6jjFjX-K2NMqbR1w
Soon, the NHS will be taken over, thanks to the trade deal the Donald has gently granted to the UNITED KINGDOM.
Palantir has already been gifted the NHS data.
And another case of unbridled zionist aggression against British people and their rights:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/22/israel-palestine-action-uk-government-terrorism-sally-rooney
As the headline says: “Israel kills innocent Palestinians. Activists spray-paint a plane. Guess which the UK government calls terrorism”
the Irish do not have a problem with calling out the abusive outrages of the zionist agenda and its craven accomplices.
I’ve signed up as a supporter of Palestine Action. It’s frre. let’s see what happens when that organisation is procribed
I suggest you leave the organisation swiftly, before it is proscribed. Otherwise you could be in serious trouble.
I don’t mean that you shouldn’t continue opposing Israel’s apartheid and genocide (as defined by Amnesty International), of course.
A large campaign of “sign a paper and fill the prisons” could be great but it would have to be properly organised.
Brian – I tip my hat to you Sir – well done.
It makes me laugh and cringe when I see the likes of Starmer – speak about morals and beliefs, the man has none, Palestine Action – are being proscribed because they stand against a genocide – and by standing against the genocide they directly oppose this British government – which is aiding and abetting in it.
Of course – if you were cheering on the Zionists and their genocide you’d be given a warm welcome – or if you agreed that the proscribed headchoppers, (HTS) – that’s butchered their way to power in Syria (and are still butchering in Syria) were doing a good job you’d also be given a slap on the back, and if you made it a terrible trio – by openly supporting the Neo-Nazi dictatorship in Ukraine, well I’m sure you’d be on the honours list very soon.
The British government sends military jets to Cyprus and Egypt – to evacuate Brits.
https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/world-news/uk-sends-teams-cyprus-egypt-31923226?int_source=nba
“Netanyahu is glaringly absent. The rumour is that he is in Cyprus. It means he and his cabinet assess that nowhere in Israel is safe for them.”
https://avigail.substack.com/p/whats-going-on-inside-israel-right
Another good reason for Iran to target RAF bases in Cyprus ?
These words from Mark Rutte, NATO secretary general, are so repulsive as not to require comment. His message, addressed to Donald Trump, reads:
“Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, that was truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do. It makes us all safer. You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening. You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done. Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.“
Brian Red.
Rutte is the new Lord Haw, Haw of Nato – taking over from the old Lord Haw Haw Stoltenberg – Nato is what Lenin would’ve called a Thieves Kitchen.
Perhaps Rutte is plastering it on with a trowel to convince Trump to stay in NATO.
@M.J.
Very likely true. Trump’s second term was widely viewed as NATO’s greatest test, due to Trump’s known hostility to the funding arrangements and his volatility.
But doesn’t that need to obsequiously flatter a volatile Trump, show that NATO is far from the democracy of equals it’s often portrayed as, due to its unanimity requirements. Nato gives the US an outsized influence in shaping European foreign policy. We’d be defensively weaker without the US, no doubt. But we’d have a lot more freedom to pursue a different relationship status with US adversaries, like China, for example.
All that was missing was :
Together Sir, we can Make Europe Great Again!
Isn’t NATO meant to uphold international law?
Yesterday, France’s Macron told reporters there was no legal basis supporting the US strikes.
That’s typical of the Emmerdeur-in-Chief.
But no matter what he may say or do, he’s still THE WEST. Evil West. And will remain for eternity.
I agree with Rutte’s words, not their meaning.
“Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.“
If US is not stopped Europe is going to pay in a big way, WWIII. And yes US is going to win, a lot of weapon contracts.
US is a war economy.
Thanks for quoting this. Yet another example of a spineless hypocrite. modern politics, public institutions and swathes of the MSM are rammed with creatures who’re dangerously devoid of character and self respect, and hopefully, but probably not, filled with self loathing..
Full of optimism – and defiance, if anything the illegal attacks on the Theocratic regime – have strengthened many Iranians resolve, to defy Israel and the US and the West in general.
“Iran’s ‘Victory’ Parade begins at Enqelab Square, Tehran.
The following chants can be heard:
“We will stand until the end, America is complicit in all the crimes of the Zionist regime.”
“Labaik Ya Khamenei.”
“No compromise, no surrender to the battle with America. Death to America. Death to child-killing Israel.”
https://nitter.poast.org/MonitorX99800/status/1937536286618685710#m
After all is said and done, the sad, very, very sad statement that can be made is that the “phantom ceasefire” is just a fig leaf.
The truth is that Israel has won this war of “non-attrition”, and Iran has lost it. I wish it could have been different. But it’d be totally unrealistic to deny this statement of fact. And the Donald, insane as he is, is calling the game. Like a big bully in the schoolyard…
The axis of resistance is gone. Let’s hope we can find others to support the people of Palestine, in even greater pain even as we write…
It’s difficult to see what Israel gains out of this: they are now back in the position they were only hours ago, where they were asking Iran for a ceasefire and Iran was saying no. They have no more missiles than they had then, but somehow they don’t want a ceasefire any more. If it was all theatre, who was the audience? The only people who are going to be taken in by this are people who supported Israel already.
According to Garland Nixon the zionist entity has transformed the “Samson Option” into the Samsonite Option as the genocidal colonists try to flee the colony.
Touché. Never leave home without it !
Howls of indignation from Israelis when ‘their’ property gets hit in return fire. They’re not supposed to fire back! Not fair!
It’s kind of hard summoning much support, and particularly difficult to listen to that bastard Netanyahu talk about the grave wrong of a bomb landing near an Israeli hospital. Not on it, mind, just near it. So bad, in fact, Iran’s leader could not be allowed to exist.
IDF bases were the actual target, close by.
So – IDF can house themselves directly among the population, and that’s not creating human shields. But when Hamas can be claimed to be – without evidence – anywhere, that becomes a legitimate target. The hypocrisy is staggering, and doubtless embarrassment prevents the BBC from drawing any attention to it.
Please, please don’t mention the BBC. What’s wrong with all of you. It can be treated in rehab, you know.
Melrose
On any given day if I’m looking at the internet if I see the phrases:
‘ France says – UK says ‘ etc
And particularly Von Der Leyen or Europe ‘ says ‘ and what follows is always ‘ must’
I scroll past.
They are in charge of nothing.
I learn more from the adverts on Youtube than the BBC or the Liberal Media.
About anything.
How do you keep an eye on what the CRAP media are doing without reading some of it. I don’t do the BBC but I do keep an eye on the guardian coz it’s free. If you totally ignore them you can’t know how malicious they are.
As a relatively, average Joe Bloggs of the UK electorate,
I can confidently assert that I don’t recognise the London government,
as it does not represent me or my values.
(And I say “government” as the Conservatives would behave in exactly the same manner.)
Not my government!
Just as Palestine has a cancer within it, so England also has a cancer within it. The only cure for these cancers is to excise them.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/dozens-of-pro-indy-accounts-go-dark-after-israeli-strikes/
^ The IRGC is getting accused of carrying out psywar ops in support of Scottish independence! Whoever wrote this crap expects their market to have no understanding of resource allocation. There is no good reason to think Iran would want to spend resources on this.
“Many had posted hundreds of times per week, often using pro-independence slogans, anti-UK messaging, and identity cues like “NHS nurse” or “Glaswegian socialist.””
We may find this accusation is used as part of a campaign against support for the Palestinians in Scotland, as has admirably been in evidence among Celtic fans in Glasgow and elsewhere, and against the Scottish left generally.
““The timing, posting patterns, and network structure all point in one direction,” said Charles, a veteran open-source intelligence researcher who publishes under a pseudonym due to contractual restrictions.”
Couldn’t Veteran Charles have a photo taken of himself wearing dark glasses or something?