There has been a steady decline in the SNP vote in Scottish opinion polls during the General election campaign, and a steady recovery in the Labour vote from a very low base. At the same time, support for Independence has been stable or even growing – the latest Scottish poll asking the question puts support for Independence at 54%. And digging down into the data tables of recent polls, the concomitant is indeed true. A quarter to a third of those currently identifying as Labour voters in Scotland support Independence.
As I have frequently demonstrated, the Scottish electorate is indeed substantially to the left of the English electorate on economic issues. This is not a myth. What appears to be happening is that some Labour voters who deserted the party when the SNP were substantially to the left of Labour, are returning to Labour enthused by Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign.
I was down this weekend at the Merthyr Rising Festival and it is impossible not to be swept up in the joy that so many people feel at seeing a genuine alternative economic policy offered by Jeremy Corbyn at an election for the first time in a generation. Renationalisation and an end to austerity, and an ethical foreign policy, are things to be excited about. I get it – a sledgehammer is being taken to the blockwork surrounding the Overton window. Who would not want to show support for that?
The latest opinion poll shows
SNP 39%
Conservative 29%
Labour 25%
Not including this, the last poll of polls showed
SNP 42%
Conservative 29%
Labour 22%
(All polling referenced can be found on the Scot Goes Pop website linked above).
The iniquity of the first past the post system is such, that the drift of support from SNP to Labour risks handing up to a dozen seats to the Tories, while potentially gaining only 2 or 3 seats for Labour – and only from the SNP.
If Labour continues, despite Manchester, to advance in the UK wide polls it only requires a further swing of perhaps 2% from Tory to Labour before polling day before we are potentially in hung parliament territory. It therefore could be absolutely essential that the combined Labour/SNP MP’s outnumber the Tories. It would be a huge tragedy if the Tories were to get an overall majority simply because some Scottish voters who like Corbyn switched from SNP to Labour, and thus let the Tories in.
The case of Edinburgh South is arguable, but Edinburgh South aside, there is no constituency in Scotland where for Corbyn supporters to vote SNP risks helping the Tory. I realise that tactical voting is a complex ethical question, but if you want your vote to have practical effect, rather than act as a form of personal expression, it is essential that Scottish Corbyn supporters vote SNP, and most especially in rural constituencies.
Just don’t understand the narrow outlook despite the thread’s focus of the upcoming General Election which is for the whole country, and the Conservatives could lose seats as well as gain them, especially because there is continually growing information about domestic problems which could most influence pensioners and foreign concerns which should bother everyone..
Poverty is growing, and Anglo-American leaders are going berserk about details leaking out over the ‘false flag’ Manchester massacre which was cooked up by the spooks to get the kingdom to go paranoid over Muslim threats.
Can you imagine what an ‘independent’ Scotland would be with the US and British state controlling the elections – this people overthrew the elected Austrailian government – they’d make very short work out of the SNP if they haven’t already – look at Scottish labour.
As a half Scot I completely understand the desire for home rule but as a socialist I am against borders and nationalism.
I really cannot stand the idea of Scottish folk deluding themselves into thinking that there is a hope of some sort of Labour SNP coalition – this exact thinking saw a return of David Cameron and the ridiculous Brexit fiasco, a referendum that simply wouldn’t have happened had Labour been strong enough to form a government.
Our system is bent it only allows two parties the rest are merely a distraction.
“Our system”
What? Our system that denotes a nation with borders and nationalism. You disapprove of Scotland being a nation with borders but it’s OK for Britain being a nation with borders. Which nation illegally invaded Iraq? Scotland or the UK?
You’re just confusing yourself real guid. Im not saying it’s ok – I’m saying I don’t think Scotland would last 5 minutes against the US/UK unless it capitulated and was run by a puppet government.
However this is all speculation.
At the moment the most pressing problem we all face in OUR country is the conservatives killing people. Sadly there is only one way to stop that and that’s by putting labour in power. Not putting the SNP in Westminster unless you think, like zionists that it’s fine to let the poor of your own state to suffer by the hands of your oppressor if it convinces the survivors to be loyal to this brave new state.
I don’t. I think it’s important to get people help. Asap.
Labour doesn’t really exist in Scotland, from a Corbyn perspective anyway. You get Red Tories and Blue Tories. Where are all the Blairites who lost their seat at the last GE? Standing again, fighting for Labour… or pissed off to follow a better income stream after being found out, leaving a fresh batch of naive careerists?
Answer for Joml, arrow⬇️
Yes it’s a sad state of affairs Scottish Labour, and it would be painful to see them back in power. BUT the Tories have killed 30,000 people in 2015 with social security cuts. Many Scottish, should they win I would expect the number to be increased to 50,000 a year if not more.
That is what you are voting on. Unlike Madeline Albright i cannot say in good conscience that 30 – 50,000 deaths a year is a price worth paying to meet a political objective.
Shatnersrug, it’s not a clear choice and tactical voting will come into play. For example, Ian Murray has been courting the Tories in Edinburgh South, putting pressure on Labour councillors to work with the Tories to control Edinburgh and ‘keep the SNP out’, trying to win favour and retain his seat. However, given his anti-Corbyn stance, the ‘Corbynistas’ in Edinburgh South may vote SNP because they don’t have a legitimate Labour candidate. In this constituency, an SNP mp would provide more support to Corbyn than Murray. Other parts of Scotland have different scenarios but only the SNP offer a clear anti-Tory stance. Even Kezia Dugdale has encouraged Labour voters to consider voting Tory! Therefore, a vote for Red Tory will not reduce the deaths you mention. Sad days indeed.
I have been pondering on the number of articles and comments on the best way to vote in the UK general election or as it should be known the English general election.
Yet again Scotland finds itself debating now how to choose the next government, but how best to vote to protect Scotland from the possibility of yet another conservative government which will be voted in by the electorate in England.
I think back to Ruth Davidsons comments before the independence referendum and how keen she was to play down the possibility of another conservative government to get that NO vote in the bag.
Yet here we are again about to get another five years of conservative austerity only this time untempered by any of the protections we enjoyed as EU citizens. Yet Ruth Davidson thinks we should just suck it up. How times have changed.
It could have been so different with a Yes vote in 2014 . People in Scotland would be choosing the government we have actually voted for.
Lets hope this is the last General Election Scotland ‘ participates’ in.
I’ll join you in that hope – elections would have so much more meaning for us in an independent Scotland.
I second that.
“which will be voted in by the electorate in England.”
Ok iv had enough now. This attitude is utterly fanciful and regressive, disempowering. Even if they did it’s down to all of us, and this magical knowing isn’t helping.
Im off this thread.
That’s very childish Ishmael, especially when it is absolutely true that the UK gets whatever England votes for. Throwing a hissy fit doesn’t make sense when it’s a factual statement.
? … What I said was fanciful (or a fantasy) was that England will inevitably vote Tory. As iv heard over and over and over and over, again.
The story, the prophecy (given that as you say people get what they vote for, not some mystical force of perceived (& frankly insulting) identity generalisation) It has changed a bit now. Now it’s “they will just get straight back in”. Because the picture isn’t all so doom and gloom as was made out.
I think to say that the UK gets whatever England votes for is also a gross (large) generalisation. You’ve got the SNP.
And I think a national party in theory should represent and connect with as many people as possible to be more effective perhaps. The snp in a wedge.
Is independence really gona be that big a deal. ? If so maybe it’s less good. I don’t know if it is under circumstances.
We are all going to have to cope, and try and make brexit positive one way or another. It’s still going to effect Scotland.
snp is* a wedge.
Ishmael, you’re not listening to what Craig is saying. If Labour supporters in Scotland who want an independent Scotland don’t vote for the SNP, there is a REAL danger that the Tories will get up to twelve seats in Scotland, depending on the turnout. If every Labour voter who wants independence, votes for the SNP, the Tories have ZERO chance of taking ANY seats in Scotland – including that of Fluffy Mundell. Labour voters could be responsible for allowing 12 extra Tory seats in Westminster!! We’re on the same side here! If there is a hung parliament, and Corbyn can form a government with the help of the SNP, the negotiations should take about five minutes, for a deal to be struck. There is NO danger of “causing” a Tory victory by Labour voters voting SNP…..
I’m afraid it is the unpalatable truth.
If every voter in Scotland voted for Labour Scotland would still have to wait to see how people in England voted to find out whether there will be a labour government or not.
You say we have the SNP. Yes we do and they have been successful at Holyrood and Westminster.
However the powers that the Scottish parliament have are minor compared to the powers that Westminster wields over Scotland. This was perfectly demonstrated when Westminster MPs voted down every SNP amendment to the Scotland Bill, despite the SNP having won 95 percent of seats at the UK General Election. That is not democracy.
As to the inevitability of a conservative victory at the election, no one expects anyone other than the conservatives to win. You also only have to look at how Corbyn and his policies ( which are probably closest to those of the SNP than any other UK party) have been trashed not only by the conservatives and media but also by many in his own party.
Corbyns policies would not be out of place in Angela Merkels Germany which shows you how far right UK politics has been for the last thirty years.
Clearly Scotland wants to go in a different direction but is unable to do so within the straightjacket of the UK political system.
It is not a gross generalisation Ishmael. It is true due to the plain weight of numbers in one part of the UK. England. We got Brexit because of England. Even had Wales voted Remain England would still have prevailed. I think the EU referendum was badly done indeed and that every part of the UK should have had to vote to leave in order for the vote to be fair. In the end two parts voted Remain and two to leave.
The whole thing was ill thought out and an almighty mess.
Alex, I am listening to what Craig is saying. I get that.
Silver, I disagree with most everyone you said. To the point of wtf.
Jo, I agree, It was. It was a dam referendum. …..But maybe that’s more to with perceived power by those who think they are “in it” in any system. And those who think they have none and are spoon fed choices and think they are exercising much by getting in line and marking a box.
Brexit wasn’t asked for, driven by the people. But It was used as most are by those idiots messing things up. Pretending to offer something. Building on divisions in society. Digging their nails. And sure it gives people the feeling of doing something for them. But is this mob system of decision making really a good idea?
And the power in a vote is by those who set it terms, framework, if there is going to be a vote. Then it’s left to them to impliment. After splitting society. It’s a very top down thing demand by the sytem that I don’t believe in really, ultimately, overall. I’ll vote this time but yea. + I’m not convinced these massive state convulsions are good for trying to move things forward with what we have. By applying pressure from below, people making their own agendas. etc.
And I don’t buy the SNP can’t do squat now. I think they are transfixed on “power” And will find they still have major issue being “independent”, which will be just fine for them.
They look like a powerful party, well dressed, healthy, don’t tell me they can’t do anything for the people up there if they wanted.
We are being bombarded. May has just been on TV after the news in a PPB. She had the Union flag at her side. That’s a new touch. That’s two doses already today – one in SW London to her party members, this PPB and then tonight on Sky.
All she needs is a chariot and a spear Boadicea style to go with the f off pearls and the strange pageboy hairdo.
Sharp ears
I hope you e bought it 😉
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-liar-liar-song-tenth-place-captain-ska-big-top-40-download-chart-a7761091.html
Shatnersrug,
I also like a bit of Ska. Most obviously politically based songs are rubbish even worse than football songs.
Captain Ska is really good. I very much doubt if The Tories can get anyone to sing for them..most of them are already dead..so I did a check…the best I could come up with was Doris Day on The Tories recommended list. She is still doing well at the age of 95. Ted Nugent came second – but he’s gone a bit deaf.
Number 1 “Doris Day – Whatever Will Be, Will Be (Que Sera, Sera)”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azxoVRTwlNg
Number 2 “ted nugent cat scratch fever”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW8S58CYQqs
Tony
I don’t think politically based songs are necessarily rubbish.
Try this one – from a band widely regarded to have been well past their best at the time of recording.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROj_1R36lX0
Just to demonstrate the vast difference between England and Scotland the band substituted the word England for Scotland when they performed there. Same reception in both countries.
Maybe Scottish independence fanatics should pay attention – but of course it was by the “wrong kind of people”
Not much of a political message there from the Clash, Loony. I prefer this one..,
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mgwU4zCEJtY
I have been trying to rep!y Yes! to you for the last few hours but the stupid BT broadband here has been coming on and going off throughout.
The viewing figures have risen massively. Hurray!
You’ve mentioned those pearls a couple of times now Sharp Ears. I think you secretly covet them. : )
Nah! Not a jewellery person unlike Theresa. She is SO vain.
The f off pearls phrase originated on The Lifeboat News and it stuck. LOL.
Why does May possess so many necklaces? They are mostly chunky. Perhaps they should be made of brass to match her neck.
Has Bevin been banned from the comment section?
I doubt it, Stu, thiough I don’t really know.
The mods moderate posts on occasion to the point of extinction from posters like him or me in the hope that we will just give up.
Was tempted to leave after a post from me about Atef Esieso and his assassination, a tribute Corbyn attended, but decided to try again this morning, and it succeeded beyond my expectations..
I am saying, Tony, that it was a ‘false flag’ operation which the Anglo-American covert governments allowed to happen in the hope they could immediately take advantage of, but it was more destructive than they anticipated. The explosions, and bullets were for real.
It is proving to be much like the 9/11 attacks
Now that the smoke has settled, they hope to take advantage of what they originally plotted,
They miscalculated, just like they miscalculated the political effects of the Madrid subway bombing.
Trowbridge, You can’t allow stuff to happen, unless you organised and planned the entire thing yourselves in advance. If you didn’t, you wouldn’t know anything about it, and so wouldn’t be in a position to allow it, or prevent it from happenning. Outsourcing the execution of an operation to another team, does not mean “that you did not do it” in the meaning of being completely responsible for it.
ISIS get apologetic.
Ex-defense minister says IS ‘apologized’ to Israel for November clash
Moshe Ya’alon’s office refuses to elaborate after alluding to contact with terror group
http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-defense-minister-says-is-apologized-to-israel-for-november-clash/
While all eyes are on Paxman making sure his taxes aren’t raised for the benefit of the country (earns above £80,000 I’m sure) over in France the new President has just sent a gift to ISIS, AQ and friends to start gassing civilians under their control once again to garner support in the form of western military intervention.
What a fucking clown Macron is.
Macron warns over Syrian chemical weapons in frank meeting with Putin
French president tells the Russian leader that use of chemical weapons in the conflict would lead to immediate response, while urging cooperation over Isis
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/29/macron-warns-putin-over-syria-in-frank-first-meeting-versailles
Russia should say to the US, “Keep out of it, you, We’re getting rid of your terrorists once and for all.” Then napalm them. Cook them all.
Scottish reception for JC:
‘What just happened to Jeremy Corbyn would NEVER happen to Theresa May [VIDEO]’:
https://www.thecanary.co/2017/05/29/just-happened-jeremy-corbyn-never-happen-theresa-may-video/
Spontaneous friendly response – where’s the MSM?
I do wish that 16 and 17 year-olds had the vote in UK elections as they do in all Scottish elections.
Btw, if they’d had a vote in the EU Referendum, it is highly likely that the result would have been the opposite of what happened. And the General Election results (2015 and now) too might well be different.
To state the bleeding obvious there is no point in voting for a separatist candidate in a UK election other than as a rather pointless protest vote. No UK party could consider a coalition with the SNP who’s sole aim is to leave the UK. When it was falsely claimed by the right wing national press to be a possibility for Labour to join a coalition with the SNP in the 2015 General Election there was a huge late swing to the Tories. If you are a Scottish voter in a UK election who does not like Tories the only sensible choice is to vote Labour. Those who favour independence should ignore the SNP mantra that toxic Labour is dead ( which isn’t true anyway ) they may find that tactical voting helps to facilitate another Scottish referendum, which is more relevant than having 50 or so noisy but totally ineffective SNP MP’s in the UK Parliament
To state the bleeding obvious, if your party of choice is in pole position in all constituencies, then tactical voting is for supporters of other parties.