Trump’s Act of American Hubris 294


The United States is so far doing virtually no trade with Iran anyway. In 2017 total US exports to Iran were just 138 million dollars, and total imports a mere 63 million dollars, figures entirely insignificant to the US economy. By contrast, for the EU as a whole imports and exports to Iran were each a very much more substantial 8 billion dollars in 2017 and projected to rise to over 10 billion dollars in 2018.

There is one very significant US deal in the pipeline, for sale of Boeing aircraft, worth $18 billion dollars. It will now be cancelled.

Which brings us to the crux of the argument. Can America make its will hold? Airbus also has orders from Iran of over US$20 billion, and it is assumed those orders will be stopped too, because Airbus planes contain parts and technology licensed from the US. It is possible, but unlikely, that the US could grant a waiver to Airbus – highly unlikely because Boeing would be furious.

Now even a $20 billion order is probably in itself not quite big enough for Airbus to redevelop aircraft to be built without the US parts or technology (which constitute about 8% of the cost of an airbus). But the loss of a $20 billion order on such capricious grounds is certainly big enough for Airbus to look to future long term R & D to develop aircraft not vulnerable to US content blocking. And if Iran were to dangle the Boeing order towards Airbus too, a $38 billion order is certainly big enough for Airbus to think about what adaptations may be possible on a timescale of years not decades.

Read across from aircraft to many other industries. In seeking to impose unilateral sanctions against the express wishes of its “old” European allies, the USA is betting that it has sufficient global economic power, in alliance with its “new” Israeli and Saudi allies, to force the Europeans to bend to its will. This is plainly a very rash act of global geopolitics. It is perhaps an even more rash economic gamble.

We are yet to see the detail, but by all precedent Trump’s Iran sanctions will also sanction third country companies which trade with Iran, at the least through attacking their transactions through US financial institutions and by sanctioning their US affiliates. But at a time when US share of the world economy and world trade is steadily shrinking, this encouragement to European and Asian companies to firewall and minimise contact with the US is most unlikely to be long term beneficial to the US. In particular, in a period where it is already obvious that the years of the US dollar’s undisputed dominance as the world currency of reference are drawing to a close, the incentive to employ non-US linked means of financial transaction will add to an already highly significant global trend.

In short, if the US fails to prevent Europe and Asia’s burgeoning trade with Iran – and I think they will fail – this moment will be seen by historians as a key marker in US decline as a world power.

I have chosen not to focus on the more startling short term dangers of war in the Middle East, and the folly of encouraging Saudi Arabia and Israel in their promotion of sustained violence against Iranian interests throughout the region, as I have very written extensively on that subject. But the feeling of empowerment Trump will have given to his fellow sociopaths Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman bodes very ill indeed for the world at present.

I shall be most surprised if we do not see increased US/Israeli/Saudi sponsored jihadist attacks in Syria, and in Lebanon following Hezbollah’s new national electoral victory. Hezbollah’s democratic advance has stunned and infuriated the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia but been reported very sparsely in the MSM, as it very much goes against the neo-con narrative. It does not alter the positions of President or Prime Minister, constitutionally allocated by religion, but it does increase Hezbollah’s power in the Lebanese state, and thus Iranian influence.

Iran is a difficult country to predict. I hope they will stick to the agreement and wait to see how Europe is able to adapt, before taking any rash decisions. They face, however, not only the provocation of Trump but the probability of a renewed wave of anti-Shia violence from Pakistan to Lebanon, designed to provoke Iran into reaction. These will be a tense few weeks. I do not think even Netanyahu is crazy enough to launch an early air strike on Iran itself, but I would not willingly bet my life on it.

The problem is, with Russia committed to holding a military balance in the Middle East, all of us are betting our lives on it.


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294 thoughts on “Trump’s Act of American Hubris

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  • Loony

    Yet again President Trump does exactly what he said he would do. No wonder politicians and the lackey class hate him so much, for Trump is showing that it is possible for words and actions to be in alignment.

    Trump is playing a dangerous game and is playing for high stakes – and still he has the moral fiber to sit at the table and make his moves. This is far less about Iran than it is about Germany – so expect massive disinformation so as to ensure that no-one is tempted to look in the direction of Berlin.

    • Martinned

      Wait, we should commend people for doing what they said they would do even if the thing they said they would do is completely bonkers? By that logic, Mrs. May is the greatest PM we’ve ever had.

      • Merkin Scot

        “Wait, we should commend people for doing what they said they would do……………. By that logic, Mrs. May is the greatest PM we’ve ever had.”
        * End of the world.
        I actually agree with Martinned.

    • AntonyI

      During the elections Trump stated that the US would pull out of Syria soon. Not happening: new (foreign) advisor called Bibi for US course, same as HRC had.

      • laguerre

        But what Trump said about withdrawal can’t be unsaid, however much all the hawks around him have got him to retreat on the question. The idea has been sown, and it will only come back again.

    • Ian Gibson

      Eh? His whole election campaign was based on doing the exact opposite of this, of getting out of interfering in the rest of the world. He has, like every other president before him, been bought out of any reluctance he may naively once shown. The largest donor to any campaign in the 2016 election was oligarch Sheldon Adelson, who gave $25 million to the Trump campaign, and who in 2013 said that the US should drop a nuclear bomb on Iran.

      After his election win, Adelson gave another $5 million to Trump’s inauguration, the largest single presidential inaugural donation ever made. Newt Gingrich, another of the billionaire’s hired politicians, has said that Adelson’s “central value” is Israel (source: Caitlin Johnstone, https://steemit.com/trump/@caitlinjohnstone/we-are-being-lied-to-about-yet-another-middle-eastern-country-by-yet-another-us-president)

    • Dan

      “Yet again President Trump does exactly what he said he would do.”

      “Yet again”? Like when he pledged to pull out of Syria, curtail American military interventions overseas, build a wall that Mexico would pay for, investigate/imprison Hillary Clinton…?

    • Summer Diaz

      Doing what one says is admirable, when the decisions themselves are rational and sound. Trump’s are ego-driven, monetarily influenced, and self-serving.

  • Alyson

    This is about dollar hegemony, business as usual, and Total has a deal to drill for gas with Iran, and France also has a Renault factory there. This is about blocking trade by other countries with Iran, as well as giving Israel a window of opportunity while Iran’s nuclear program gets back up to speed, after they gave up 98% of their uranium under the deal. Rouhani stated in his response that Iran expects the other signatories to abide by the agreement that was signed by 6 countries, so that only the US is in breach. This is tricky for Europe

  • AntonyI

    If US president Trump cancels a done and signed deal with Iran why would North Korea trust him to keep any deal? Or Xi, or Putin…?
    Trump should stop listening to Bibi and start thinking for himself (and the US etc.). Bibi complaining about an Iranian nuke while having 200 himself or 130 in Pakistan is nonsense.

    • Andrew Wilson

      This is a good point. The Americans will argue that this was an agreement and not a treaty and thus could be legitimately vacated by a successor administration.

      Sadly, the rest of the civilised world will be unlikely to see matters the same way and will regard any agreement with the U.S. as being of value only for as long as it suits the U.S. this will render perception of the U.S. as being agreement incapable and that’s not healthy for any of us.

    • bj

      This credibility-vacuum probably will be filled by blatant, open threats to do ‘as we say”.
      That’s the way of the US these days.

    • laguerre

      So from that highly pro-Boeing article, we can presume that Airbus is already moving towards independence from Boeing-owned suppliers. Airbus will already have understood that depending on your major rival is hardly likely to be a successful tactic.

      • 1971Thistle

        To be fair, AIrInsight is not particluarly pro-Boeing: this article merely highlights the fact that although Boeing may have lost the argument over the Bombardier C-Series, it is not nursing its wounds. It is a far more political company than Airbus (US defence contracts underpin their commercial developments; see also the tanker refuelling debacle and how Boeing managed to ‘win’ that).

        The problem for Airbus is that Boeing is a major Trump cheerleader; they can use their control over parts and spares to constrain Airbus on the grounds that they are upholding sanctions to hlep him and do themselves no real harm

    • Julian Wells

      Interesting point, but by the same token the Iranians will be less concerned about losing the JCPA.

      • Martinned

        Certainly the hardliners in Iran will be. The moderates would have been hoping that more certainty on the US side might be achieved, so that the hoped-for economic impact might come after all.

    • laguerre

      “So it looks like the US still have the ability to make their sanctions stick.”

      Sanctions are the only working weapon the US possesses these days. Everybody knows it, or should do. It is possible to overuse the weapon, and it backfires. But that takes a long-term analysis to see it.

  • Jack

    Once again Trump shows to the world that he is a neoconservative,

    He lies, spread propaganda en masse, his reckless attitude toward peace and ultimately human lives…is so sickening to watch.
    His speech too yesterday, it was like it was something Netanyahu had put forward to him, so full of pure lies! And then, the sickening regime in Israel start illegally to attack Syria just an hour or so after to the joy of the western media/politicians that of course didnt condemn it all.At the same time the sickening israelis have of course also threatened to attack Iran and Lebanon and on top of that threatened to murder Assad.

    Israeli minister threatens Al Assad assassination
    https://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/israeli-minister-threatens-al-assad-assassination-1.2217605

    And this israeli regime is supported, funded all over the west, from conservatives to mainstream leftist parties! Israel, is the biggest threat world is facing no doubt about it.

    The nuclear deal is probably dead, EU have said they will follow it, but just wait and they will start follow US diktat.
    EU is nothing but a vassal regimes to US interests.
    Anyway what is the deal worth to Iran if US depart from it?

  • Mrs Rita Irvine

    Trump is a maniac! Iran is a peaceful country all religions are practiced. This is really about the dirty arms deals with Saudis Arabia and Israel. When countries back away from the dollar the US will be bankrupt.

  • David

    I am wondering how this fits in with the upcoming Trump – Jong Un summit. Surely when Trump asks for a no nukes deal his reassurances that he won’t summarily ditch it when some other dodgy regime bends his ear and demands a favour will be met with understandable disbelief. With Iran cut loose and already a known supplier of technical assistance to North Korea’s nuclear programme who can guess where this is all heading?

    • Jack

      Indeed, North koreans look incredibly pathetic now considering US will only accept defeat in a deal with them.
      Giving up the nukes,..that is probably the biggest mistake by North Koreans have made.

      This is the time where whole world but US should unite and go against this rogue regime called United states, that of course wont happen but US more and more act like Nazi Germany in its threat, propaganda, illegal measures and general reckless behavior, something that doesnt benefit this world one bit.

    • james

      my thinking is that israel isn’t concerned about north korea, so all is okay.. if they did it would be different and the usa would have to make sure it took orders from israel on the best line of action… this would inevitably involve lying, deception and making agreements it would change further down the road.. unless israel decides it wants to screw north korea, i think everything is okay here…

    • Hagar

      Doodlebug,

      It takes a wise man to act the fool.

      Thanks for the above link.

      I hope everyone here watches it.

      Well done.

  • Julian Wells

    The 3Ms — May/Macron/Merkel — were clearly betting on the Iranians being scared into immediately considering to “modifications” to the JCPA, but the Iranian strategy is clearly the principled one of demanding that the remaining signatories continue to honour their commitments.

    Presumably Russia and China will have no difficulty in providing suitable assurances, so the interesting question is what will the 3Ms do? In view of Brexit and other considerations, the 3Ms are really 2M+1, and as Craig points out, the geopolitical interests of the 2Ms lie in opposing the US stance.

    Thus a lot depends on how determined a stand the EU will take in the face of threatened US sanctions. Since sanctions would mean that the US was attempting to sabotage an agreement between third parties that the latter deem important to their security, the EU (plus of of course Russia and China) would be justified in imposing countervailing sanctions.

    These might include

    (a) tariff and other barriers to politically-sensitive trade (agriculture and autos spring to mind)
    (b) banning use of the US dollar in oil trading
    (c) seizure of local branches of US financial institutions that attempt to facilitate US sanctions

    My guess is that the Germans might be up for this, Macron not so much.

  • SA

    This is the moment where the EU and Europe in general can decide whether it is still in thier interest to continue toeing the US line. It may also be the first step for many countries to start divesting away from the Dollar, but I am not holding my breath.

    • Martinned

      For the record, the issue isn’t the use of the dollar (much less its ownership) and more the use of US-based financial institutions for clearing etc. I guess the City of London is going to have to pick up the slack…

      • SA

        Martinned
        I think this is semantics, the dollar system is inextricably linked with the US clearing system isn’t it?

          • Doodlebug

            As I understand it oil trading is conducted in US dollars, which speaks directly to affairs in the Middle East.

          • N_

            Iran is encouraging a move away from the US dollar (wherever held – eurodollars or otherwise) to the euro.

            Back in 1987, it was the relationship between the US and Iran that triggered the great stockmarket crash of that year – in particular, rumours hitting the trading floors that the US had not only sunk Iranian naval ships but had begun a land invasion.

          • Doodlebug

            Rob Newman had this all ‘sussed’ a decade ago. His ‘History of Oil’ is a must see (And no I’m not on any promotional commission).

          • Doodlebug

            “Why would the fact that oil is traded in dollars give the US power over anyone/anything?”

            Because compulsory use of the US dollar renders oil the contemporary equivalent of the ‘gold standard’. Those wishing to trade in black gold have first to purchase US dollars before entering into the transaction. Those dollars then go round and around among the oil trading nations. All the US has to do is metaphorically print as many as are required for international duty.

            If an oil producing nation should unilaterally decide to switch to another currency, e.g., the euro, then international banks have necessarily to ‘flush’ the dollar in favour of that currency, which is concomitantly strengthened in the money market, as the dollar is weakened. You can work out for yourself what the consequence would be of a chain reaction among the Middle East’s oil suppliers. Both Gaddafi and Sadam Hussein thought a move away from the petro-dollar would be a good thing. The Neocons thought otherwise.

            I would encourage anyone to watch the Newman film. Did you know, for instance, the Britain’s first military act at the outbreak of WWI was to invade Iraq? Or that Iran was a democracy long before the USA announced its intention to export the idea to them (having previously underscored a coup to install dictatorship under the Shah)?

            The situation we’re all now witnessing through a myriad media channels has a longer history than most would imagine.

          • N_

            Even US dollars held outside the US, i.e. Eurodollars, are still US debt, printed by the US government, and whoever buys US dollars whether to trade oil or for whatever reason is in a sense investing in the US.

            The problem for the US is of course that being lent to isn’t the same as being given to, and eventually someone is going to dump US dollars or switch away from them which amounts to the same thing and crash that currency and with it the paper-based balloon or bubble called the world economy.

  • SA

    It is time we in the West think of the way our supposed democracies have been totally subverted. Why would a POTUS be so powerful in single handedly endangering world peace? Come to think of it what is a handful of incompetents in charge of Brexit to the exclusion of the rest of the population?

      • Skyblaze

        It’s such a good system that they didn’t attempt to install it in Iraq. Don’t they have some forms of proportional representation

  • Kenan

    I totally agree with your observations, Craig. We can naturally expect Israel to escalate the bombing of targets in Syria to get a reaction, and then say I told you so. If Iran plays it cool and the treaty goes on without the US, it will certainly isolate the US. Pulling out of the climate change agreement and now this just creates the perfect storm for Russia to take an upper hand.

    • SA

      When will the Russians supply the SAA with S300s to start taking down those Israeli Jets?

  • Mist001

    The interesting thing about this is that America has threatened sanctions against countries that deal with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran has said it will continue to work with the other countries which are signed up to the agreement. The UK is one, so does Trump intend to impose sanctions against the UK? That should make for interesting activity post Brexit, since there was talk of a UK/US trade deal.

    • N_

      US ambassador Joseph Kennedy got his marching orders from Britain in 1940, albeit for being too close to a country with which Britain was at war, not for being too anti a country with which Britain was increasingly friendly. But the love for the US brand that was felt by many of the landed families in Britain at that time (many had married into US money) is even stronger among the British rich now.

      • N_

        Love for the US brand is strong among most elites around the world – China, Muslim countries, Africa, Latin America, you name it, even Iran. Exceptions are North Korea and Cuba.

  • Clive p

    I can’t see the UK doing more than a few slightly disapproving words. For decades we’ve been no more than US poodles. Ultimately dependence on them for Trident and intelligence always wins. Leaving the EU will make this dependence even worse.

    • Rhys Jaggar

      Given the ludicrous projected cost of updating Trident, surely any fiscally sane PM would simply refuse to renew?

      To me the whole Trident shebang if mafia-style tributes to US arms firms. We cannot use the missiles without US permission, so why do we pay full price? The US should pay a hefty sum for the right to determine usage and any UK PM worth their salt should make that crystal clear to the Master of an anything but Special Relationship….

      • Hagar

        “fiscally sane PM”,

        Who s/he?

        “The US should pay a hefty sum”,

        cut out this common sense stuff, this is not the world we live in!

    • N_

      Agreed. It’s invoking Article 13 of the NATO treaty (allowing a country to leave NATO) that there should have been the issue over, not Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty (Brexit), an issue for divided Tories fighting like rats in a bucket and for other racists blowing their dogwhistles.

  • snickid

    “I have chosen not to focus on the more startling short term dangers of war in the Middle East, and the folly of encouraging Saudi Arabia and Israel […]. But the feeling of empowerment Trump will have given to his fellow sociopaths Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman bodes very ill indeed for the world at present.”
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Trump’s reneging on the Iran agreement not only makes war more likely between Israel and Iran, but is, in my opinion, intended to help bring that war about. My suggestion, dear fellow readers, is that you join Stop the War campaign while there is still time (to stop the war):

    http://www.stopwar.org.uk/

  • TonyF12

    Boeing had a USD19billion order for planes. The renewed sanctions will go down badly in Seattle and elsewhere. The EU will take a big hit as well.

    Donald Trump’s conflation of his determination to trash everything Obama achieved, alongside his subservience to Netanyahu and AIPAC explain everything anyone needs to know.

    Who can trust the USA any more? Bad faith on this scale will convince many that Washington’s word is good for nothing. Not only America’s designated hatelist, but also her allies.

    • Jo Dominich

      TonyF12 – Well said. What is worse it is becoming increasingly clear that the Orange One appears to be jumping to Orders issued by the head of the Rogue Nation, Israel. Very dangerous indeed

  • Dom

    The claim that Iran bankrolls the fanaticaltly anti-Shia Taliban and al-Qaeda was Bush-Cheney redux, just as outlandish and shameless as their claim that Saddam masterminded 9/11. The neocons around Trump clearly absorbed the lesson that low-hanging fruit in the Heartland can be made to believe any old nonsense. Something Bibi has also learned looking at his ” IRAN LIED ” blackboard schtick. The warmongers know nuance and facts are a complete waste of time if you need to whip up the USA! USA! brigade.

    • N_

      Netanyahu is way ahead of western politicians in his use of visuals – which, as you rightly say, play to the stupo market, but then most propaganda does precisely that. Literacy levels are falling through the floor, and fascists of the Netanyahu and Trump ilk are ahead of the curve.

      • N_

        When three-quarters of the population spend most of the time picking at their mobile phones, things are bound to end in tears, big-time.

    • bj

      The idiot Bibi, representing his lunatic state, standing besides some slides with a great Miffy appeal was really momentous in its enormity.

      • N_

        Why do you believe Netanyahu (whom you call by such a cutesy name) is an “idiot”?

  • bernardcrofton

    When considering the risks of escalation, you need to bear in mind that Netanyahu has an illegal Nuclear stockpile, and Iran doesn’t.

    • Kerch'ee Kerch'ee Coup

      @Jack
      Don’t forget South Korea also had a nuclear program at one time when Carter was talking of pulling out troops.Certainly if the two Koreas and Koreans want a nuclear program,which they do not, they have the know-how capacity to do so regardless of US or Japanese objections.

  • Rhys Jaggar

    Is it not high time that a political party whose first Foreign Policy principle is speaking to Israeli leaders like out of control maniacs be founded?

    • Doodlebug

      Beyond time unfortunately. It looks to me as though the tail is wagging the transatlantic dog, Cerberus. Israel may be the nerve centre but the muscle fibres are widely distributed.

    • N_

      When leaders of said little fascist state commission assassinations on foreign soil, use fake British passports, or massacre civilians on the high seas, you can count on western leaders, even when criticising them within okayed limits (if they do as much as that), to come out with phrases and concepts such as “the only democracy in the Middle East”, “the right to defend itself”, and “under siege by terrorists”, with the message that they deserve friendly superficial criticism once in a blue moon because they are so awesome and beautiful compared to the monkeys and filth they are surrounded with.

      • Doodlebug

        I could be mistaken, but I suspect that as the value of the subterranean crown jewels increases over time, so the west’s little security guard will want a significant pay rise, progressively.

        • N_

          I can’t make out who you mean here: Gulf oil interests or I__ael? If the latter, then I don’t agree with how you characterise those interests. Meanwhile the UAE, Saudi and Qatar are putting increasing amounts of dosh into art! Shades of the run-up to 1987! And one thing about paintings is you can can put them on a plane and skedaddle.

          • Doodlebug

            “Gulf oil interests or I__ael?”

            I think the one entails the other. Just as the UK has been, in effect USS UK since the end of WWII, i.e. a strategic US outpost in the North Atlantic, so that other small nation, the name of which we dare not mention, is on point to keep a subjugated Middle East in check, that subjugation being presently on-going, although it seems to have become unstuck with regard to Syria (so did the Schlieffen plan).

  • Doodlebug

    The other day (7.5) SA posted this link as part of a comment affixed to Craig’s previous ‘Freedom no more’ thread:

    https://www.rt.com/usa/425993-iran-court-mockery-911-victims/

    Judge George Daniels has apparently ruled that Iran owes $68 billion in reparations for that little incident in Manhattan 17 years ago, an event in which they played no role whatsoever.

    (Did I hear someone say ‘concerted effort’?)

  • Sharp Ears

    Why are our lives blighted, time and time again, by these paleocon monsters like Trump and Bolton?

    • Loony

      Even though you are almost certainly not a US citizen Donald Trump is doing his very best to save you.

      You should show some gratitude and write to thank him – not besmirch him on public forums simply because you do not understand the necessity of his actions and the benefits that you will derive from his efforts.

      • laguerre

        Trump is his very best to save you?? From your tone, it doesn’t sound as though you’re joking. You must be paranoid in that case, open to any sort of suggestion. It’s just what fake news is intended for, people like you.

        • N_

          I’m not sure whether Loony knows whether he means it or not, but I think he knows he’s sincere in despising what he despises: people who say rude things about that casino owner in the White House, etc.; and that he despises us to such an extent that twisting things a bit is justified when he sallies forth to defend what he values, what’s good and proper, against the heathens, great unwashed, plebbotariat, lefty “virtue signallers”, and everyone who don’t realise just how hard life is waiting for six-monthly share dividends to come in, and how much of a “sacrifice” it is to spend money on sending brats to prole-free private schools that could be spent on buying a third home in Florida. I doubt he’s joking in the sense of trying to amuse an audience. But I have to admit he made me smile by offering the image of self-sacrificial Trump trying so hard to help us all 🙂 I mean nobody in the world thinks that, Loony!

          • Loony

            Trump certainly thinks that – how else to explain his reliance on his own private security as opposed to Secret Service supplied agents.

            Given trump’s penchant for all things carnal you would think that he would be enamored by the reputation of the Secret Service for procuring under age prostitutes in Colombia and then avoiding any legal or employment consequences whatsoever.

            Or maybe Trump values his life more than his next shag.

      • N_

        In fact anyone who’s exploited by or otherwise less powerful than someone else should always be grateful. Before every meal, it’s say grace for Tesco and mean it or it’s a short drive to a pit and no coming back.

        It’s at times like this I realise just what scope there is in Britain for giving it some if enough of us really had the get up and go.

        • Hagar

          !If enough of us really had the get up and go”

          That, is the crux of the problem!

      • Jo Dominich

        Loony, I think it’s about time you let another of the patient’s on your ward use the internet facility!

  • Bu axmoqlik

    The Iranian Nuclear deal was a bad deal, guess what? He withdrew a deal that only had several years left to run.
    He also promised a wall, which is being built at the expense of Mexican aid money.
    What the other nations should worry about is the dollar. The US already restricts trade using it’s currency. Banks like Barclays, Santander, LLoyds, RBS, HBOS & HSBC dance to the US tune as far as Iran trade are concerned, expect the words of the governments willing to continue this deal to be undermined by the actions of the banks who use dollars, namely most of them who will prevent trade with Iran, including the Airbus contract. I cannot understand why the author of this piece missed it out, even though he actually typed “$20 billion order”.
    The problem with Trump is that nobody trusts a politician that actually does what they say.
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpometer/

  • Kerch'ee Kerch'ee Coup

    It certainly seems the estimation of Trump as a ‘bazaari’ seeking the best deal by every trick and theatrical dodge that Pepe Escobar in ‘Asia Times’ last year ascribed to Iranian bazaar-wallahs and pundits has proved false.Has the whole Trump as a deal-maker view now collapsed or has the neo-con pressure/blackmail proved stronger?
    Seems that way and the guttering candle I held for him vs. the Cinton has finally sputtered out

    • bj

      Trump is to a far extent just a puppet.
      The Military Industrial Complex calls (and fires) the shots.

  • Loony

    Interesting to see some of the more deluded pro EU types arguing that the US$ is not really an issue. This speaks to both the arrogance and stupidity that so infects the EU.

    The 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement installed the US$ as the de-facto world reserve currency. When (thanks to the French) Nixon closed the gold window the US immediately moved to back the $ with oil via an agreement with Saudi.

    Anyone that tried to move away from the $ were destroyed – Iraq and Libya being obvious examples.

    Sure the US$ cannot maintain supremacy forever, and indications are that its time is ending. Russia and China are the obvious candidates to deliver the coup de grace. Under all circumstances the US$ will remain a significant currency, probably the single most significant currency. The US will not allow the EU to undermine its economy any longer – and that is bad news for Germany and their super mercantilism.

    Once again what the Europeans were too weak and supine to deal with will be dealt with by the US. A lot of people in Europe are in for a big surprise as they are too indoctrinated to even understand the game that they are involved in. Europeans are akin to people that have brought ballet shoes to a boxing match – and they are about to get punched on the nose, and have no idea why. To make matters worse they are not even willing to listen to any explanation as why they have brought all of this on themselves.

    • Doodlebug

      Can’t argue with that (although I suspect Cyclops’ descendants might).

    • Stu

      Why would they punish Europe? Europe plays by the rules of US hegemony, doesn’t have significant natural resources and American capital is safely integrated into European economies enough to make the distinction European partly redundant.

      China is the only threat to US hegemony. Preventing Chinese alliances oil producing regions is the number one US priority. That means getting through a lot of regime change before the time where China can militarily match the US.

      • Loony

        Both China and Germany are threats to the US, and Trump is after both of them.

        Trump has already initiated a trade war with China – he is on record as saying \trade wars are good as they are easy to win. So far it looks as though he is right. The Chinese have retaliated by targeting US soybean imports. The Chinese seem to have overlooked the fact that there are 400 million pigs in China who are mostly fed on US soybeans. Absent US production the global soybean market is too small to meet Chinese demand. Presumably they will suck up soybeans from other producers (Brazil and to a lesser extent Argentina and Canada) and thus allow the US to drive up soybean prices for customers other than China.

        North Korea is all about China – and Trump stands on the precipice of victory there.

        Germany is a much more insidious problem – it produces more high end value added products and it is harder to attack because it is protected by an entire continent of vassal states. Vassal states that are for the most part unable to understand that they are vassal states.

        Pulling out of the Iran deal affords an opportunity to more or less sanction Germany at will. With Trump the world is watching a genius at work. The fact that so few people understand that fact is itself testament to the genius of Trump.

        • Dave Lawton

          Loony
          Trump is the Mountebank in the Tarot which you are not aware of. And if you don`t get that you never will.And as the Trickster and juggler he will drop one of his balls and that will be the end of his game.

      • AntonyI

        Indeed, Xi China is the only real treat to US hegemony, but you would never know from the absurd US foreign policy. Canada, Russia and Iran also have lots of oil; instead of wooing the latter two the U$ is antagonizing them. No long term strategy.

    • N_

      Europeans are akin to people that have brought ballet shoes to a boxing match – and they are about to get punched on the nose, and have no idea why.

      There is a lot of love for the US brand in most European elites. Not necessarily slurpy love, but in the poshest residential parts of most European cities you will find many families with members who were “schooled”, or who work or reside, in the US, and not a few who are dual citizens. Look at structures such as Fulbright whereby the US keeps its fangs in academia worldwide, even if we’re not supposed to use the term “brain drain” any more. Supine, yes. And venal with it. Stupid, no. Except in the sense that some who aren’t quite rich enough to be insulated don’t realise it can’t last forever.

      • Loony

        That is all true. It is especially true that US elites (and all those educated by US elites) carry the most hate for Trump, and they give every impression of preferring a nuclear war to Donald Trump – therein lies their stupidity.

        President Trump is fighting on all fronts – and he is also going after the domestic enemies of the US. Once again there are reasons to be hopeful. Heads have rolled in the FBI, the latest to surrender being only last week. Trump is remorseless in his lambasting of the press. His Presidency has already rolled up more child exploitation rings than Obama managed in 2 terms. The increased insanity and isolation of California is all but observable in real time.

        Can Trump win in the end? Probably not, but the fact that he is willing to try is enough.

        • RBD

          I don’t follow you. How do the so-called elites demonstrate a preference for nuclear war over support for Trump?

          • Loony

            This is the essence of the “Russian collusion” narrative being run in order to hobble Trump.

            There is now public domain evidence that senior FBI officials (Comey, Mccabe, Strozk et al) were bad actors in this farce. There is evidence of British collusion via the wholly discredited Steele dossier. Even a Judge has in essence publicly queried the motives of the Mueller investigation.

            The media are running this garbage 24/7 and pay zero heed to objectivity – look who controls the most egregious offenders people like Carlos Slim and Jeff Bezos.

            Trumps campaign promise was to try and “get along with Russia” – he is blocked at every turn by a deranged chorus of “Putin’s puppet”. In order to protect himself Trump has been forced to launch missiles on Syria. The last time around he was virtually dragged to the firing button by the British and the French.

            What more evidence do you need that the elites hate Trump and would prefer the final war to Trump. On the positive side Trump is making progress in his war on the deep state, but there is a long way to go.

  • Sharp Ears

    Trump last spoke to AIPAC in 2017 via satellite. https://www.jta.org/2018/02/27/news-opinion/aipacs-role-age-trump
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/world/middleeast/netanyahu-and-trump-skip-aipac-meeting.html

    AIPAC Press Release in January 2018.
    https://twitter.com/AIPAC/status/951919345470459906

    Surely it’s time for Trump to go again and receive their rapturous applause.

    Bibi is in Moscow today. What’s that about?

    At PMQs,Theresa says she is committed to the deal without the US. Johnson confirmed that in his speech following PMQs. They won’t be getting any brownie points from Donald when he visits in July.

    • Doodlebug

      “Bibi is in Moscow today. What’s that about?”

      Discussing the Skripal affair perhaps? He has a peculiar knack of being ahead of the game in such matters as do not directly involve him, apparently.

      • mark golding

        Let me try to explain a bit what the devil Bibi is up to… Bibi is working with neo-con else you’re dead Trump. The Great Satan will impose heavy sanctions on Iran to (a) weaken it’s position in the region and (2) cause an already agitated Iranian public to rise-up thus creating a pretext for regime change – helped by the CIA and MI6 provocateurs already in place.

        Bibi has met Putin to (a) request S300 is not supplied to Assad (b) Reaffirm and continue Israel right to strike Iran’s military resources in Syria while Moscow looks in another direction.

        If Iran gets combative, destructive and threatening Bibi will ask Trump to launch the final solution and strike Iran directly after some massive propaganda and MSM bull-shit that Iran is a nuclear/chemical/biological threat to man-kind.

    • Hagar

      “Bibi is in Moscow today. What’s that about?

      It looks like Putin is also a puppet of Zionism, unfortunately.

      • Doodlebug

        “It looks like Putin is also a puppet of Zionism, unfortunately.”

        Not too sure about that. The Oligarchs who introduced him were all of that persuasion. A former KGB colonel, he appeared politically naïve and no doubt they, Boris Berezovsky in particular, thought he’d be a ‘yes man’. Result: Berezovsky exiled/dead, Abramovitch reduced to running a football club, others exiled, their assets ‘nationalised’.

        Bibi may be quite used to throwing his weight around but Putin’s no pushover by any means.

      • Republicofscotland

        Hagar.

        Oh Netanyahu is probably in Moscow to ask Putin how can he remain in power in Israel for as long as Putin has in Russia.

        I suppose Putin will tell him, to find his own Medvedev puppet, that he can make president intermittently, it seems to work for Putin.

        Or Netanyahu could have a word with Xi Jingping, whose just acquired the presidential job for life.

        • Hagar

          No,no, no. RoS.

          Bibi wants to know what Russia will do if Bibi bombs Iran.

          • Republicofscotland

            Bibi, won’t bomb Iran without the backing of the US, does he have it?

            I doubt Putin would pull Russia into a full blown conflict over Iran, but you never know.

  • bj

    Wouldn’t the UK’s response in this be crucial as to what ‘Europe’ is going to do? I believe one BJ (not related) is over there in the US.
    Btw., what is ‘Europe’ in this regard, France + Germany, the EU? I’ve never understood this construct; as if France and Germany aren’y part of ‘the EU’.

    Anyway, China and Russia are also involved.
    Looks like Europe has some quick and deep soul searching to do.

  • Patrick Lawrence

    Hello, Craig Murray.

    This is excellently reasoned, in keeping with all your published posts, which I read regularly. It is good to have someone with first-hand professional knowledge of the workings of diplomacy and int’l politics publishing on such topics.
    Kind regards.
    Patrick Lawrence,
    Norfolk, Conn.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Think we shall soon see an Israel pre-emptive attack with American support on alleged Iranian nuclear and military sites, and how that plays out will be at least a regional war in the Middle East, quite likely involving nuclear weapons.

    • Republicofscotland

      Trowbridge.

      First though we need the obligatory chemical attack to minions onside.

      • N_

        As far as I know the latest Sputnik report of another staged chemical attack being planned in Syria hasn’t been sourced to a named Russian military figure as the Douma event by the White Hatters was, in that case to Valery Gerasimov the chief of the general staff. This is unless someone knows differently? The second report could have just arisen from some kind of inertia but I doubt it. More likely, the Kremlin is saying “We know what you’re planning, and it doesn’t bother us, and we’re not going to put much effort into propaganda directed at stopping you, because, believe us, mateys, you try it and you won’t know what’s hit you.

      • Trowbridge H. Ford

        No, the Israelis are going to kill them by great surprise, either by Israeli nukes, bombs and missiles or by the Iranian nukes and other weapons exploding.

        • glenn_nl

          Didn’t you give us an absolute assurance that North Korea was going to be attacked by the US months ago? As I recall, you said Trump was going to announce an immediate military strike during the State of the Nation address. (When he could take a break from creating tidal waves, hurricanes and earthquakes using HAAARP or laser-armed satellites, of course.)

          • Trowbridge H. Ford

            I did predict a pre-emptive strike on North Korea months ago, and it still could happen.

            Didn’t think Kim Jong-un is a very smart guy, given all the West’s propaganda about him. He certainly picked up the pieces about it having killed his grandfather, and trying to overthrow his regime.

            He took the bad hand that the Yanks dealt him, and has used it, especially the claim that he has 60-70 nukes, against it up to now. Wonder what Trump will do if Kim gets the Nobel Prize instead of him.

  • Sharp Ears

    O/T with permission

    Please sign this open letter to the Culture Secretary if you would like to see Murdoch’s bid for the whole of Sky to be blocked.

    http://bit.ly/2FSwPYI

    Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky could be given the green light. The media watchdog investigating the takeover have just submitted their final report to the Culture Secretary, Matt Hancock. He’s due to make a final decision on the takeover imminently. It could hand Murdoch even more control over our news.

    The watchdog – the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) – issued a draft report earlier this year which said a Murdoch takeover of Sky would hand him too much influence over our politics. But the final decision is down to the Culture Secretary.

    Murdoch’s highly paid team of lawyers have been working around the clock, piling the pressure on the Culture Secretary and wave through the takeover. Together, we can drown Murdoch’s team out. A huge open letter to the Culture Secretary, signed by thousands of us, would send the message loud and clear – the public wants Murdoch’s takeover plan blocked.

    The decision is being made now. Will you add your name to the open letter? It will only take a minute.http://bit.ly/2FSwPYI
    From 38 Degrees by e-mail today

    • Hagar

      Sorry to say Sharp Ears, I think this is a done deal!
      Especially when Disney became involved.

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