A British diplomatic source tells me that “President” al-Jolani aka al-Sharaa has assured the UK that Syria will “normalise relations” with Israel, recognise the State of Israel and exchange ambassadors, by the end of 2026. This is part of a deal in exchange for substantial Western financial support and the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
I asked whether the withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from Syria was part of the deal, and surprisingly this was not raised by either side. The UK regards it as a bilateral matter between Syria and Israel, and al-Jolani does not appear to prioritise Israeli withdrawal.
I was also told that the European Union’s External Action Service (EEAS) and Directorate General for International Partnerships has decided that al-Jolani’s Syrian cabinet of ministers does meet the promises he gave to the EU Pledging Conference in Brussels on 17 March, through “foreign minister” al-Shibani, to form an inclusive government, specifically including Alaouite and Christian communities and also female ministers.
The conference pledged 5.5 billion euros to Syria in grants and loans, half of it from the EU itself. The condition of an inclusive government was stressed by the EU in its public statements.
Subsequently on 27 March al-Jolani announced his “inclusive” cabinet of 24 ministers. There are 21 male Sunnis, including all the key posts – Finance, Interior, Defence, Foreign Affairs. There is just one woman, who is also the token Christian (and is Canadian). There are three minority representatives, all in minor ministries – one Christian, one Alaouite, one Druze. There is no Shia representation. One of the Sunni ministers is a Kurd.
I am sure when you look at this image, like the EU you immediately think “oh good, a diverse cabinet”.
That this is an “inclusive” government is a farce – only the most flimsy nod to tokenism detracts from the fact that it is a Sunni regime with strong theocratic leanings. It was German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock who made the most public song and dance in Brussels about the need for an inclusive government, yet it is she as one of a triumvirate of women – along with EU Commission President von der Leyen and external affairs head Kaja Kallas – who has insisted that al-Jolani’s cabinet is acceptable.
Of course, al-Jolani’s pro-Israeli credentials trump every other consideration.
This has caused much disquiet among staff at the EU External Affairs Service and there is enormous discontent at the blatant pro-Israeli agenda of von der Leyen in particular. The playing down of massacres of minorities in Syria, on top of the genocide in Gaza, is causing real concern both in the EU and within the UK at the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, my old department.
A final snippet from my source. Al-Jolani has the support of both MI6 and UK special forces within Syria. A key part of their role is to guard against any potential revolt by his own militants who fought their way through from Idlib.
Chechen, Uzbek and Uighur militants are very happy for now with the spoils of victory, but may not take kindly to the notion of recognising Israel.
To be clear, this next did not come from my diplomatic source. But I strongly suspect that the game is for al-Jolani and his pro-Zionist regime, installed with Western backing, to strengthen its paid forces until the time comes for a night of the long knives, where al-Jolani’s own most fanatical supporters will be eliminated. That however is merely my reading of his most practical next step. I do not see how he is to reconcile the roles of Islamic fundamentalist and US/Israeli puppet otherwise.
This game is not over yet.
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Since deal making is a give-and-take effort, is it not a significant risk that Iran tying one hand behind its back in the talks with the US while still facing unfettered threats from Israel?
I fear the same risk regarding the Russia/US talks: regardless of what US/Russia might finally agree to, Russia will still face the rest of the West’s war efforts in Ukraine.
It still puzzles me that the organised religions of Christianity and Islam have up until now managed to avoid the theological challenge of how to justify or oppose the Genocide in Gaza and Palestine. Christianity has St Aquinas’ doctrine of the Just War and Islam has Jihad. The centralised authority of the Christian denominations makes achieving a consensus position more likely (in theory) than in Islam. The theological reticence in engaging with the Genocide demonstrates an ecumenical avoidance or retreat from the starkest (and darkest) episode (18 months and counting) of indiscriminate murderous inhumanity. If the organised religions present themselves as powerless and without authority then increasingly Marx’s dicta will be seen to apply evermore clearly on this corporeal plane. The power of organised religion’s to mobilise unequivocal consensus and action in response to future moral panic will be denuded as organised religions will not be seen as a rallying point to address the demands of social justice given their quiescence over the Genocide.
JohnnyOh45 and Jack. You both pose good questions, here is how two statesmen thought about them…..
The “Blood and Iron” speech, given by Otto von Bismarck in 1862, is famous for its assertion that major political issues are resolved not through diplomacy and debate, but through military force. And Mao Tse-tung said in “On Protracted War” (May 1938) that “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”. This quote is often used to emphasize the importance of military power in achieving political goals.
The Orange b——d seems to be trying to emulate Bismark and Mao with regard to both Iran and Yemen…
Nine plane loads of bunker-busting bombs were shipped from the US to Israel. The munitions are intended to prepare Israel for a potential war with Iran.
“Nine US transport planes carrying bunker-busting bombs and other defensive weapons landed at Nevatim Airbase near Tel Aviv, in central Israel,” the Israeli broadcasting authority KAN reported. The outlet noted that Washington also sent additional interceptors for the THAAD air defense system to Tel Aviv. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eye-iran-us-sends-bunker-busting-bombs-israel
Trump’s opening gambit is no uranium enrichment, no ballistic missiles and no fraternizing with other members of the ‘arc of resistance’. Good luck with those impossible demands.
Reports indicate that Iran is very open to curtailing its uranium enrichment programme and supporting international monitoring (as it previously did under JCPOA) BUT it requires the USA, and its puppets, to relax sanctions.
IMO this won’t happen, and Iran is being set up to fail – to quench the blood lust of Israel.
Thank Harry.
Religion has always been useful to provide people with the courage to face death and this is why political patrons have allied with it due to its utility in military conflict. The Mao quote expresses the view that violence can be utilised legitimately to aid revolution.
A decade following the Korean War, China obtained nuclear deterrence.
Interestingly as Ambassador Charles Freeman observed both Communist China and the USA are revolutionary in origin.
Iran too is a revolutionary state although in principle a theocratic one with democratic features. Interestingly it is this theological state that is opposing Israel on principle and its fatwa against nuclear weapons is premised on the theological unacceptability of mass civilian casualties (as part of God’s creation and a violation of the sanctity of life). That a theological non-secular state should have a clear and cohesive position on these issues while the allegedly rationale secular states embroil themselves in Genocide and have weapons of mass destruction illustrates what can only be politely described as ambivalences given the rhetoric coming from western countries about their professed values.
It also worth noting that Yemen a country with a low GDP, limited mass media and internet accessibility have maintained solidarity with Palestine. It would be difficult to make the argument that Yemen’s populace are prey to the scourge of misinformation which so exercises our own western governments and policy makers.
“its fatwa against nuclear weapons is premised on the theological unacceptability of mass civilian casualties (as part of God’s creation and a violation of the sanctity of life)”. The word is Haram (forbidden) however a volley of ballistic missiles may, (probably would) achieve the same mass casualties. I did hear that if Israel did attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, then Iran would quickly obtain the bomb. My question is, why wait to be attacked? Possession of the bomb could act as a deterrent even if not used? Mutually assured destruction, keeps the peace (sort of) between super powers.
With the Iranian missile capability there is at least an element of intent insofar as targeting combatants is concerned. The reason why Genocide is a moral crime is that the group is targeted and attacked on the basis of their being in a group whether they are a civilian or combatant and is therefore indiscriminate on this basis.
A jesuitical out for Iran could be to sign a defence treaty with Russia thereby guaranteeing a nuclear response from Russia from any attack on Iran ( a la NATO) however the price Russia would want to exact for this may be too high ? Also, as you point out, Iran’s conventional missile technology is capable of destroying Israel and any other belligerent neighbouring states.
In a multi-polar world the best form of security is peace and this needs to be worked for, earned and maintained. A regional war with Iran would be devastating. The calculation for the US is whether it can afford to insulate itself from the impact of a regional war and if it would tolerate sacrificing Israel to achieve this ? If not the alternative is managed decline with the risk its proxy Israel unilaterally attacks a major power thereby forcing the US to disengage or engage.
The irony in this issue is that Israel is a nuclear state and therefore has real deterrence from unprovoked attack, which ought to leave it feeling secure. However, as the exception which proves the rule, Israel claims that it is being assailed by enemies on all side while it is Israel itself that is illegally occupying its adjacent neighbours land and routinely violates their sovereignty.
There appears to be a lot shuttle diplomacy at the moment between many of the relevant actors and large powers. Creating peace between Ukraine and Russia so the US can support an attack on Iran is probably not in the interest of BRICS.
JohnnyOh45, thanks for the thoughtful reply, these are difficult questions and as everyone knows when the bombs drop International law goes out the window. In WW2 Germany bombed UK cities and we bombed German cities, some with no military importance, Dresden was firebombed with tremendous loss of civilian life. Also 2 Japanese cities nuked. There is nothing moral or legal in any of these three instances, unfortunately this is the world we live in, make no mistake no one is going to be the first to give up its nuclear weapons, but they do have deter ant value.
This is clearly not a very good time to pontificate about anything, if you see what I mean!
Regarding organized religions, they probably differ a lot from spontaneous religions, if there’s any of this kind.
We all respect Bismarck and Chairman Mao, but still…
We’re rather far from Syria by now, but hopefully we’ll soon get back on track.
Thanks to Craig!
Melrose.
In The Golden Olden Days of the Tribe no-one had any time for all the religious stuff.
The main aim was to find food one way or another.
that way daily life – survival.
Then along came a surplus ( due to farming and husbandry) and as soon as that appeared
the Sages/Gurus/ Shamen appeared.
Because they had a a surplus and herding was helpful to that you only had to hunt every X
number of days and could have the weekend off ( weekends hadn’t been invented yet).
This is where the basis of religion comes from because it enabled the ‘thinkers ‘ to think and
not bother themselves with such small matters as survival of the Tribe.
They could then hand down that thinking ( philosophy) down to the rest of the tribe.
And so it began etc etc.
They still walk among us today with other Spiritual guides on the net ( known as influencers) and
of course usual religion so nothing really changes – does it?
Of course you have to remember that normally the one’s who issue the edicts and rules do not do
the work and in the case of war don’t do the fighting.
Just the ordering.
I am not religious at all but despite that I like the ordinary believers, but not the people they believe in.
If they are poor even more so, as Heaven is their only hope relative to the world they currently exist in.
The Rich believe they can buy their way into Heaven – which tells you more about their belief in their
God as a reflection of themselves more than anything.
In fact it would be interesting for the Israeli Armageddonists to know where their money is parked up
as an act of faith.
That would certainly be a test of where their faith lies.
Vis- Iran:
For the US and Israel to think that Iran will dis-arm to allow the two countries to attack them is
probably the most preposterous idea so far from Trump and Netanyahu.
In Iraq it worked – in Iran it won’t.
Wow. I am totally dumbfounded by your extremely insightful analysis.
So Mr Cutts, in your opinion will the next Pope be African or American?
African Christianity? OMG!!
I mean I’m sure there must be good people, like Francis or Rowan in the Church’s hierarchy in Africa. I mean I hope there are.
I think we understand how our CofE version came about. It was not just the way a certain king was able to divorce an unwanted wife, it was the outcome of the philosophical debates across Europe of the Renaissance. Anne Boleyn brought great learning from the Court of King Francis, where Leonardo da Vinci ended his days. The intertwining of religion and state was underpinned with profound scientific and alchemical learning, and this learning was only possible due to a surplus of wealth, achieved from organised and stratified distribution of labour and formal class relationships.
Africa, not being an island or an empire, does not have unifying philosophical debate, but is in constant flux, with strength as the denominating factor. Buy a local paper somewhere in Nigeria or wherever and see how the Christian priests focus on beating demons out of people, mostly women and children. The old witch doctor hierarchies of power have integrated into grafted on colonial Christianity. Fear and violence have formalised roles alongside the happy clappy swaying and ecstatic singing. And Africa is big. Its natural resources are huge. China is very integrated, despite its difficulty finding people to sign formal agreements with, to their wealth extraction, who actually have any influence on the ground or territories in question, or who can found when it transpires that nobody in the area has any idea who they are or where the money paid has vanished to.
Globalism is markets and they are being exposed in quantum entanglement….
Pope Francis has been a fine, unifying, pope. The world is on the brink of profound upheaval.
Melrose.
Not sure the new ‘ Woke ‘ Catholic Church is ready for that.
About as much chance of that happening as a Jewish person joining a WASP run Golf Club in the US.
You may have a big surprise when they say habeus papam.
“Of course you have to remember that normally the one’s who issue the edicts and rules do not do
the work and in the case of war don’t do the fighting.”
That is a relatively recent thing. The last English king to lead his troops into battle was as late as George II.
The latest UK task force led by the £3.5 billion pound aircraft carrier Prince of Wales has just left Portsmouth on a willy waving expedition to the South China seas hopefully to traverse the Taiwan Strait [poke the panda] What could possibly go wrong? Here’s one thought, the last Prince of Wales [a battleship] along with the repulse was sunk by Japanese aircraft early in WW2 in the South China Sea. Now the Chinese have unstoppable Mark 10 velocity hypersonic ballistic missiles, which US defence Sec said are capable of sinking all US aircraft carriers in 20 minutes. This task force will go through the Suez canal and sail up the Red sea, what? Methinks the Houthis will remember who bombed them recently. The bombastic UK leadership led by Starmer still thinks we rule the world, they all quote the .Rules based International order. boy are they in for a rude awakening?
Mach 10, ssshurely?
Thank you Glenn-nl but you must admit it does sound the same, rather like one of the carry on cast calling her cat… ‘cooking fat’ when ejecting it from her room. ‘carry on loving’ [smirk]
Here is an extract from an article from 2009 by the war nerd, it is Humorous and correct in the implications for aircraft carriers. Since then missiles are now so much more sophisticated and also hyper sonic.
Remember that one sentence, get it branded onto your arm: “Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack.” What does that tell you about the distinguished gentlemen with all the ribbons on their chest who’ve been standing up on carrier bridges looking like they know what they’re doing for the past 50 years? They’re either stupid or so sleazy they’re willing to make a career commanding ships they know, goddamn well know, are floating coffins for thousands of ranks and dozens of the most expensive goldplated airplanes in the history of the world. You call that patriotic? I’d hang them all.
That’s why it’s so sickening to read shit like the following:
“The purpose of the Navy,” Vice Admiral John Bird, commander of the Seventh Fleet, tells me, “is not to fight.” The mere presence of the Navy should suffice, he argues, to dissuade any attack or attempt to destabilize the region. From Yokosuka, Guam, and Honolulu, the Navy is sending its ships on missions to locales as far away as Madagascar. On board the Blue Ridge, the vice admiral’s command ship anchored at Yokosuka, huge display screens allow officers to track the movements of any country’s military vessels cruising from the international date line in the east to the African coast in the west—the range of the Seventh Fleet’s zone of influence.
That’s the kind of story people are still writing. It’s so stupid, that first line, I won’t even bother with it: “The purpose of the Navy is not to fight.” No kidding. The Seventh Fleet covers the area included in that 2000 km range for the new Chinese anti-ship weapons, so I guess it’s a good thing they’re not there to fight.
Stories like this were all over the place in the last days of the British Empire. For some dumbass reason, these reporters love the Navy. They were waving flags and feeling good about things when the Repulse and the Prince of Wales steamed out with no air cover to oppose Japanese landings. Afterward, when both ships were lying on the sea floor, nobody wanted to talk about it much. What I mean to say here is, don’t be fooled by the happy talk. That’s the lesson from GM, Chrysler and the Navy: these people don’t know shit. And they don’t fucking care either. They’re going to ride the system and hope it lasts long enough to see them retire to a house by a golf course, get their daughters married and buy a nice plot in an upscale cemetery. They could give a damn what happens to the rest of us.
http://exiledonline.com/the-war-nerd-this-is-how-the-carriers-will-die/all/1/
Reading stuff from the last 2 wars the tragedy and heartbreak need reminding. Was it Kitchener who oversaw the loss of the British Navy in the Dardanelles?
And Siegfried Sassoon’s autobiographical novel: fox hunting in Ireland after 1916, a turn in Palestine reading the Woodlanders, while marching past dejected Turkish prisoners and lots of dead camels, and then reading War and Peace while billeted in a French village overlooking a churchyard. The perfect good manners, the cheerful bravery of the conscripted men writing letters of longing to their wives and mothers, the unpleasantness of practicing bayonet charges against straw men, and…. I only have a few pages left and Ypres is 3 miles away.
Comparing that church going population of rural and industrial Britain and Ireland, with the horrors faced by millions of conscripts across Europe and North Africa, and I can only wonder where the voices of today’s soldiers and sailors will be written and who will read them.
Good for Harry going to visit the wounded soldiers in Ukraine, looking to make sure they are not forgotten, and that their stories can be heard, and how can they return to civilian life after what they have seen – and done.
China has made 3D printing into a force for colonising the moon and terraforming Mars. It builds motorways several miles high to cross chasms and burrow through mountains. The giant machinery just gets refilled with steel and concrete and clicks it all together before moving forward. China’s Navy has ships as big as islands and these ships are carrying 3D printing capacity to build roads and bridges to join the ships to Taiwan’s mainland, to unload millions of soldiers. We have no concept of scale and our aircraft carriers don’t even work properly.
Charging our students massive debt to do tightly prescribed degrees which don’t allow them to question the focus of their prescribed studies leaves us at a disadvantage. China has invested massively in sending its students to universities around the world. We have a thousand in each university every year, and they report back on everything.
We have no concept of the difference of scale.
Several years ago when news channels around the world were free to view, I watched a Chinese Studies spokesman from SOAS tell the interviewer on one of the English speaking China News channels ‘China will invade Taiwan at a time of its choosing.’ ‘And Japan?’ Asked the interviewer. The question was left hanging. It was a sobering revelation
> “The purpose of the Navy,” Vice Admiral John Bird, commander of the Seventh Fleet, tells me, “is not to fight.”
Ah yes, very reminiscent of his TV namesake – who, coincidentally, portrayed an Admiral asked to explain the point of the HMS Prince of Wales and the HMS
Camilla Parker-BowlesQueen Elizabeth. John Fortune persistently asks him “And what are they for?”, while Bird keeps avoiding the question, eventually admitting that the ships can’t be deployed for a military purpose – before suggesting that, as they could hold 12 Olympic-sized swimming pools, they might be better off being used for hosting the Games.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0jgZKV4N_A
Maybe we’re going to challenge the Chinese to a swimming competition? A swim-off to decide the fate of Taiwan would at least have the benefit of fewer casualties. Speedos at the ready, then ….
The Russian Navy lost a lot of its aristocratic Dukes and Counts in its sea battles against Japan over disputed Kuril Islands in 1912. The leadership of large parts of Feudal Russia were lost.
Lenin, Marx, Trotsky and Engels stepped in to fill the void.
The, so called, Ministry of Defence (MoD) is an incompetent and corrupt organisation. If the ‘defence’ of the UK relies on these incompetent crooks then we are truly f*cked. Every project that comes out of the MoD is late, over budget and not fit for purpose.
The carriers are a perfect example; they were going to be nuclear but now are diesel and have to be followed around by a tanker; they were going to have catapults but then went VTOL but have no planes as we gave all ours away to the USA; there are two carriers but one is essentially a spares backup; The UK cannot supply an (essential) carrier defence force so we rely on other nations. The carriers cost a fortune but wouldn’t last longer than 60 minutes in any serious engagement. The MoD foisted this sh*t on the nation.
Just rewatched the story of Britain’s nuclear bomb and the tests in Australia “Britain’s Nuclear Bomb Scandal: Our Story” on the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00257rk
Watch this and see what the MoD is really like – evil.
“This task force will go through the Suez canal and sail up the Red sea, what?”
Are you sure that HMS Prince of Wales can fit down the Suez canal? Mind you, it will probably break down before it gets much further than Gibraltar.
HMS Prince of Wales will conduct joint exercises off France, then transit into the Mediterranean for more drills with the Italian Navy. After this workup, she will transit the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, bound for points east. It is as-yet unknown whether or how much she will be involved in the U.S. bombing campaign over Yemen during the transit; British forces have participated in the effort before, but the operation has intensified and its scope has broadened under the current U.S. administration.
https://maritime-executive.com/article/royal-navy-carrier-departs-on-eight-month-deployment#:~:text=Published%20Apr%2022%2C%202025%2011%3A29%20PM%20by%20The,fighters%20-%20all%20the%20way%20to%20the%20Pacific.
Brian Berletic points out some inconvenient facts regarding US/China relations and Taiwan, the fact that the US is arming Taiwan to the teeth augurs badly for the future, because the US could use Taiwan as a proxy, just like Ukraine, this would be fatal to the Taiwanese, I hope they realize where their future belongs. Just a hint of what motivates the US is Trump bragging about the major Taiwanese chip manufacturer building a $100 billion dollar factory in Texas. Here is the US cleverly covering all bases, ready to throw Taiwan under the bus, just like Ukraine, will the vassals never learn or, as H Kissinger once said It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.
“The US State Department, upon its own official website under a section titled, “U.S. Relations With Taiwan,” unambiguously admits, “we do not support Taiwan independence.”
If the US government does not recognize or support Taiwan independence, by implication Taiwan is a “dependent” of another state. According to the United States’ own “One China” policy laid out in the 1972 Shanghai Communique, that state is China, whose sole legitimate government is the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
The 1972 document explains in detail:
The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position.
Thus, any interaction between Taiwan and the rest of China is a matter of Chinese internal political affairs, amid which the US has no ability to interfere in accordance with international law and more specifically, under the UN Charter and its guarantee of a nation’s territorial integrity and political independence.
The UN Charter says unequivocally:
All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
Quite clearly Washington’s unofficial support for separatism in Taiwan, in contradiction of its own agreements with Beijing regarding the status of the island province, is a violation of international law to begin with. Any plans by the US to use any kind of military force, including unmanned systems, to intervene in China’s internal political affairs, begins from an entirely flawed, indefensible position under international law”. https://orinocotribune.com/why-washingtons-plans-to-turn-taiwan-strait-into-hellscape-are-fundamentally-flawed/
” US-sponsored separatism and other violations of Chinese sovereignty over the island province of Taiwan ”
Oh and what of the right to self-determination of the Taiwanese? I don’t see that mentioned anywhere. Is that an ‘inconvenient truth’ Berletic can’t deal with?
Not all parts of nations are compatible with the right to self determination, the Spanish parliament refuses Catalonian independence, so it seems their right to self determination can only be realized with massive civil disobedience culminating in a civil war. Similarly Mebyon Kernow the Cornish Nationalist party would not be allowed self determination for the same reasons. There are many nascent independence movements in Europe, I suspect the reason Catalonia did not receive support from the EU was the fear such support could open a Pandora’s box opening the door to civil and military strife all over Europe. Jeffrey Sachs appeals to the Taiwanese not to trust the US, they will get you into trouble…
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-24/The-U-S-won-t-protect-Taiwan-it-only-endangers-it-1C0vGfp98rK/p.html
This is sound and logical advice, China population 1.4 billion versus Taiwan 20 million half of whom do not want independence, Taiwan is 80 miles from mainland China. The Chinese army is so large they are told not to march in lockstep because if they did the earth might fall off its axis. Most Taiwanese trade is with China, the US want to use Taiwan as a proxy, don’t let them.
The UN would disagree.
Article 1
1. All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.
2. All peoples may, for their own ends, freely dispose of their natural wealth and resources without prejudice to any obligations arising out of international economic co-operation, based upon the principle of mutual benefit, and international law. In no case may a people be deprived of its own means of subsistence.
The theory is wonderful but realpolitik i.e, Realpolitik from German real ‘realistic, practical, actual’ and Politik ‘politics’) is the approach of conducting diplomatic or political policies based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than strictly following ideological, moral, or ethical premises. In this respect, it shares aspects of its philosophical approach with those of realism and pragmatism. Sure they can go for independence, but no major power will back them up, even the US agrees that there is only one China and will not go to war with China over it., that is guaranteed.
Pears Morgaine.
Would you like to have a chat with The Palestinians about Rules and Laws
and throw in Iraq- Libya – Syria and so on?
I’m not saying the rules don’t exist but, as usual with Laws and rules it depends
on their application.
More to the point, it depends on who’s doing the ignoring.
As the saying goes: ‘Rules are there to be broken’
Comes down to (as it always does) who is the most powerful ignorer and who is the prosecutor.
p.s. As far as I am aware Taiwan is considered as part of China by the UN and even the US tacitly
talk about One China.
Perhaps some better informed commentators on here can put us both on the right track as to
those ‘ Rules?’
MR MARK CUTTS, you requested an opinion on the new rules, in this article ‘the case for dismantling the rules-based International order’ Professor Glenn Diesen explains everything, I regard him as an excellent commentator on current world affairs. https://alethonews.com/2024/12/24/the-case-for-dismantling-the-rules-based-international-order/
American bluff. Taiwan is not Ukraine, it’s an island far from anywhere but China, The supply lines are not defensible, so any military action is doomed to failure. A large percentage of Taiwanese do not support their USA funded government and all Taiwanese see themselves as Chinese. There are many political and social interactions between Taiwan and China. The west has nothing to offer Taiwan apart from war, death and destruction. Hong Kong should act as an example of the west’s duplicity.
Any military action is going to be initiated by China. They know they can’t subjugate Taiwan by any other means. Increasing numbers in Taiwan are identifying as Taiwanese, not Chinese, and whilst there might not be 100% support for the US, support for unification with China is very, very much lower. Hong Kong acts an example of Chinese duplicity and brutal suppression.
For once I agree with you Pears. Hong Kong was and still is suffering oppression and restrictions of liberty, and Taiwan is more ethnically and culturally mixed at this time. Its economy is successful and losing autonomy under occupation will be awful for the people. America will try and protect its industries and financial interests.
There are none so blind as those who will not see !
As you unwittingly state: “America always protects its own interests”. Taiwan means nothing to America other than a means to destabilise China, similarly with Hong Kong. And exactly the same with Ukraine and Russia as with Afghanistan and Russia.
Honestly, can you not see this ? How many people have to die before your eyes open ?
“Any military action is going to be initiated by China. They know they can’t subjugate Taiwan by any other means.”
They don’t need to subjugate Taiwan. All they need and want to do is to stop the US meddling in Taiwan’s affairs. The US doesn’t give a shit about Article 1 unless it suits their interests.
Bayard
From what I’ve read i the US has told the Taiwanese Government that if China invades they must sabotage all their hi -tech chips and other tech items.
In other words anything that would give the Chinese an edge over the US must be destroyed and nothing to do with democracy or sovereignty – just business.
China may just blockade the country and dare the US to come near.
If the US thought the Yemenis were a pain in the backside China could easily outdo their achievements.
“From what I’ve read i the US has told the Taiwanese Government that if China invades they must sabotage all their hi -tech chips and other tech items.”
Exactly, either Taiwan is a sovereign nation in which case what do the Americans think they are doing ordering it around like that, or it is a quasi-colony of the US, in which case the PRC has every right to feel aggrieved about US involvement. I wonder how the US would react if China started ordering Puerto Rico about in the same way.
All Taiwanese see themselves as Chinese? According to Pew Research, “Most people in Taiwan see themselves as primarily Taiwanese; few say they’re primarily Chinese”. 67% think of themselves as primarily Taiwanese; only 3% see themselves as primarily Chinese. 85% say they are NOT emotionally attached to China.
Pew ! I detect a whiff of evangelical Christians with a smattering of zionism and a side of security.
Apparently, 99% of statistics are made up. 🙂
So, there is no way to convince you otherwise? Even if I show you a video of some Taiwanese voicing their opinions, you can simply say that it’s merely anecdotal evidence, right? Please tell me, then, what real hard evidence looks like to you, aside from what YOU think?
Even without evidence, it’s just common sense to assume that a group of people living on their own island will create their own culture and identity and slowly drift away from their ancestral roots. That, after all, is what the British who were sent to penal colonies in Australia did, did they not? It’s also what a particular type of pigeon did after it got stranded on the island of Mauritius – it evolved into the dodo and stopped mixing with regular pigeons.
B: So, there is no way to convince you otherwise?
One thing to appreciate about SB is that he “knows” things. No evidence is needed, no proof required. He just “knows”, you see.
It’s a silly question, though – “Do you see yourself as primarily Chinese or primarily Taiwanese?” At least 95% of residents of Taiwan are Han Chinese. You can find Chinese people from Hong Kong too who will talk about China or “the country” meaning mainland China – or more precisely the area under the People’s Republic of China – but even if they speak that way they will still call themselves Chinese and acknowledge that Hong Kong is in China.
Those interested in the demographics of Taiwan rather than just having an argument may also like to take account of the existence of the indigenous people of Taiwan, formerly called Taiwanese aborigines – who have been subject to oppression that can be compared with the oppression of other indigenous peoples elsewhere in the world.
It’s curious how British government media has a stock way of saying (this is from memory) that the Beijing government “views Taiwan as a renegade province” whereas the Taipei govenment “views Taiwan as a country in its own right” – a summary which is basically a crock of shit, because both governments have a “One China” policy. But for some reason it must suit the British Foreign Office, although I’m not sure why.
Another thing is that when western media report things such as that the wicked Beijing forces have flown military aircraft into the heroic Taiwan government’s air security zone a total of 73 times over the past 17 days, they omit to mention that the said zone actually includes a large chunk of mainland territory administered by the PRC.
But of course it’s possible to read too much into this. Doubtless some prats at the Foreign Office who think they’re true understanders of fuzzywuzzies’ minds have decided they’re going to lay down a line that, sure, such-and-such an amount of “face” is okay but the poshos gotta enforce some kinda limit on it. In reality, the British rulers have absolutely f*ck all influence in the region, so it doesn’t really matter much of a damn what the BBC says or doesn’t say about it.
The Kurds could legitimately claim self-determination; however, realpolitik means something different. Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran would need to be broken up in order for a Kurdish state to emerge. This is not going to happen: indeed Turkey would go to war to stop it. Pears Morgaine states that Taiwan should have the right to self-determination as per the UN. But that could never happen either since China and Russia have veto power at the UNSC. These are not simple matters and all interests have to be taken into account. The potential for war is ever present.
And Palestinian realpolitik? There’s about three times as many Kurdish people, but no state. Though not all want a separate one of course.
Do the Kurds have a reasonable claim to any part of Syria? They aren’t a majority anywhere and most moved into Syria after the establishment of the Syrian state, implicitly recognising the legitimacy of Syrian rule.
I saw a Quora answer saying that, plus that centuries ago they worked with the Ottomans so shouldn’t now claim independent land from Turkey. And are ethnically Iranian so can’t claim independence there, like numerous other groups can’t. So maybe start from Iraqi land, but also said that they displaced people there.
Yet is it right to say they are the main ethnic group now longest associated with the Zagros mountain range etc? But can also move back and forth between town and village. Not too enamoured of living by clocks and lines traditionally.
FWIW Kurds are a majority in Rojava, but (as is great to report) the administration there is non-ethnic.
This area has been called Syrian Kurdistan by some. Some may have difficulty in appreciating that those with historically oppressed nationality can actually have the good sense to be anti-nationalist, as many Kurdish people are.
Just come into my mail – box from Sanctions Office. Sort of says it all. There are good Jihadis and bad Jihadis and bad becomes good whenever it suits the powers that be.
“Update to the UK Sanctions List: Syria Regime
Today, 24 April, the UK Government has revoked 12 designations made under the Syria (Sanctions) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. These entities are no longer subject to asset freezes or director disqualification sanctions under the UK’s autonomous Syria sanctions regime.
The following entities are no longer subject to UK sanctions:
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan
Cham Press TV
Sama TV “
The couragous Gary Linecker questioned BBC the other day on their alleged rule of “impartiality” regarding covering conflicts but as Linecker said, why is then BBC not “impartial” when it comes to Ukraine/Russia war where BBC take very strong position for Ukraine?
Novara media – Gary Lineker Lays Into BBC On Gaza Coverage – 7:51 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-07LA1hACTk
Responding, as the BBC interviewer did, with “What about Oct 7”? Proves that BBC is not impartial, that framing prove BBC take on a narrative, a pro-israel narrative. And it is not like BBC have taken on a pro-palestinian position prior to october 7 2023 anyway. Western media really try to cluch onto anything to justify their anti-palestinian reporting, it is so obvious.
Speaking on alleged “impartiality”, seems like ICC very well may retract the arrest warrant against Netanyahu, what a farce:
“The International Criminal Court (ICC) Appeals Chamber has instructed a lower panel to reconsider Israel’s objections to the court’s jurisdiction over arrest warrants issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, according to a ruling published on Thursday”.
https://swentr.site/news/616247-israel-icc-netanyahu-arrest-warrant/
Harry Law
I don’t know how to reply to your reply so hope you see this?
Glen Diesel is calm and informative.
Alastair Crooke knows the Middle East backwards and for China Ben Cohen ( ex Grayzone I think)
is very informative on China.
Away from the main scene there is a spat developing between two Nuclear Powers ( Pakistan and India due to a
Terrorist attack in Kashmir) and just as you think the fires go out another one crops up.
The next big one though is Iran.
If Trump is stupid enough to back Israel in an attack on Iran his tariffs will look like a mere trifle.
Mr MARK CUTTS Professor Glenn Diesen describes the new rules thus… the US and vassals make the rules, everyone else must obey. OR ELSE. This snippet from the link is so informative.
“International law in accordance with the UN Charter is based on the Westphalian principle of sovereign equality as “all states are equal”. In contrast, the rules-based international order is a hegemonic system based on sovereign inequality. Such a system of sovereign inequality follows the principle from George Orwell’s Animal Farm that stipulates “all animals [states] are equal but some animals [states] are more equal than others”. In Kosovo, the West promoted self-determination as a normative right of secession that had to be prioritised above territorial integrity. In South Ossetia and Crimea, the West insisted that the sanctity of territorial integrity, as stipulated in the UN Charter, must be prioritised over self-determination”. https://alethonews.com/2024/12/24/the-case-for-dismantling-the-rules-based-international-order/
Seems that a fair few 2022 Lab and Con voters switched to Reform in Glenrothes Central and Thornton.
The SNP will be pleased.
Soon Reform may achieve second place in polling for the next Scottish general election, behind the SNP – and it’s not hard to imagine how they might try to win over a section of former SNP voters too.
“When cats purr and wash, rain’s on the way.” As goes folk wisdom…
Likewise, when comments on this blog aren’t awarded any follow-up within 24 hours, a fresh new post is about to rise and shine, like the sun in Spring.
Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza is worsening, if that’s even possible…
Yip Guiffre – was as she put in her own words, quieted, as was Epstein – and maybe other loose ends will be quieted as well.
“I am making it publicy known that in no way, shape or form am I sucidal. I have made this known to my therapist and GP- If something happens to me- in the sake of my family do not let this go away and help me to protect them. Too many evil people want to see me quiteted”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/virginia-giuffre-quiteted.html#more
Still easier for a woman to become a minister in a fundamentalist Wahabbi government in Syria than a president in the United States, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Poland, Russia…
But hey, let’s criticise the Syrians for not trying good enough.
Hey, let’s pick out those countries that haven’t have a woman as head of state and ignore the ones that have. Lets also ignore the female ministers in the countries that haven’t had a female head of state.
@Bayard, ok, my point wasn’t perhaps too clear. We Europeans are so tempted to require all other cultures to conform to our European values of the day that we fail to notice that ourselves we don’t strictly follow them.
If you insist on comparing apples to apples, then sure, Syria is at war, so let’s look at other war cabinets. Do you like more this cabinet, this one or this one?
If we are comparing apples to apples, we need to look at today’s war cabinets, not eighty years ago. You might just as well say that the Witan who advised Alfred the Great had no women in it, otherwise (although Alfred’s daughter was the first English Queen regnant, even if she wasn’t called that). A better comparison would be Trump’s “cabinet”.