Daily archives: April 17, 2010

Lib Dem Surge Not Just The Debate

The morning of the “Prime Ministers” debate, YouGov already had a poll showing a 4% increase in the Lib Dem share on their previous daily poll, Now we have a new ICM for the Sunday Telegraph showing a massive 7% boost for the Lib Dems at 27%, over their previous poll four days earlier. The key point is, this poll was taken the day before and the day of the debate, with only a small part of the fieldwork done after the debate.


So all the evidence shows that a spectacular LibDem surge started before the debate – in fact immediately following the launch of the LibDem manifesto. So the notions with which the Tories are trying to comfort themselves. that this is a bubble based on a single “X factor” type television performance, are simply untrue.

The rise in Lib Dem support is because they are being given a fairer chance to present themselves to the electorate, on a much broader front and involving many more people than just Nick Clegg. Clegg’s debate triumph boosted an already rolling bandwagon. It has much more substance to it than just one TV show, and is fed by a broad current of social opinion.

The sovereign power of the British people is no longer a private bagatelle of New Labour and the Tories. In this election they are toast. I am going to enjoy the blogosphere, where the nauseating triumphalism of Guido, Dale, DizzySpeaks and Tory Bear is about to meet a smash. Momentum hurts when it crashes into you.

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Gordon Brown Does Hypocrisy

I just watched Gordon Brown talking about international development in Milton Keynes, broadcast live across all the breaking news channels.

If you switched off your critical faculties, it was a heartfelt plea for internationalism. I was jogged harshly out of semi-attention when he talked of the need to “Do something about torture”.

Well, New Labour did something about torture. They promoted it, they institutionalised a policy of employing torture to get confessions for their “War on Terror”, they co-operated with the extraordinary rendition system. Oh, and while they were at it they sacked me and tried to frame me for opposing torture.

Brown’s heartrending photos of third world destitution strangely did not include any of the many tens of thousands of children’s bodies mangled in Iraq, or victims of bombings in Afghanistan. Nor did he talk about his nice ally President Karimov.


Today was a play for the bleeding heart vote. The problem is the hearts New Labour made bleed quite literally.

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Tories Caught in Lib Dem Headlights

I have always been fascinated by psephology, and one of my favourite websites is http://www2.politicalbetting.com, where Mike Smithson dispenses much wisdom.

Like most UK political websites, the bulk of his commenters have a right wing slant. The comments were dismissive of all the opinion polls saying that Nick Clegg had won the leaders’ debate. Wait until the first regular YouGov voting intentions poll, they opined, and we would see the Tories are romping it.

Well, the YouGov poll came out last night and is in itself now driving the news agenda. Tory 33, Lib Dem 30, New Labour 28 is a revolution in British politics so close to an election. The entire dynamics of this election have now changed.

The polling question “Would you vote Lib Dem if you thought they could win” has almost always, since 1973, given the Lib Dems a hypothetical largest share of the vote. Well, the proposition is about to be tested for real.

This is a huge blow to the Tories. The silver spooned Eton generation were expecting to breeze to a coronation by acclamation, and looking forward to redistributing wealth to the wealthy.

Now Cameron has been revealed as an empty vessel, they really don’t know what to do. Cameron’s immediate reaction perhaps goes down as the worst timed and most implausible political lie in British electoral history. The Daily Telegraph headline on his interview screamed in full banner across page 1 of the print editions “It Is Still A Two Horse Race Says Cameron”.

This was patently untrue and embarassingly crass. What does it amount to? “You’ve got to vote for me because…you’ve got to. You’ve just got to. There is no other choice” (blubs). Not exactly brilliant politics by Cameron. In fact the Daily Telegraph is so embarassed by it they have actually changed this main headline online this morning.


But the content of the interview is still as weak. The Tories appear to be coming round – spearheaded by the odious weaselly second home flipping neo-con Michael Gove – to an emergency ditching of the whole Cameron project to end the “Nasty party” tag. Gove is going for right wing populism.





Problem is they have tried that before, I seem to remember. The Tories are well and truly mesmerised by the Lib Dem headlights.

And about to be squished!

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