Lib Dem Surge Not Just The Debate 16

The morning of the “Prime Ministers” debate, YouGov already had a poll showing a 4% increase in the Lib Dem share on their previous daily poll, Now we have a new ICM for the Sunday Telegraph showing a massive 7% boost for the Lib Dems at 27%, over their previous poll four days earlier. The key point is, this poll was taken the day before and the day of the debate, with only a small part of the fieldwork done after the debate.

So all the evidence shows that a spectacular LibDem surge started before the debate – in fact immediately following the launch of the LibDem manifesto. So the notions with which the Tories are trying to comfort themselves. that this is a bubble based on a single “X factor” type television performance, are simply untrue.

The rise in Lib Dem support is because they are being given a fairer chance to present themselves to the electorate, on a much broader front and involving many more people than just Nick Clegg. Clegg’s debate triumph boosted an already rolling bandwagon. It has much more substance to it than just one TV show, and is fed by a broad current of social opinion.

The sovereign power of the British people is no longer a private bagatelle of New Labour and the Tories. In this election they are toast. I am going to enjoy the blogosphere, where the nauseating triumphalism of Guido, Dale, DizzySpeaks and Tory Bear is about to meet a smash. Momentum hurts when it crashes into you.

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16 thoughts on “Lib Dem Surge Not Just The Debate

  • tony_opmoc

    I am quite pleased to see the Lib Dems doing well as they are probably the best of the bad bunch in contention. However, I will not vote Lib Dem, unless our Lib Dem candidate publicly renounces and withdraws from his high profile connections to the Liberal Friends of Israel. I don’t mind about his Israeli funded jollies in the past, I just want him to sever connections. I am not even asking him to pay the Israeli’s any money back.

    I was wrong about the UK being in imminent danger of running short of fresh food. Although 80% of fruit and 60% of vegetables are imported – only around 2% of UK food is imported by Air.

    The World however is in danger of a massive food shortage, if this volcano continues as it could do for a considerable period – 18months+.

    Global Warming and CO2 were never a problem.

    Global Cooling could kill Billions.

    The US and EU policies of converting food into Ethanol is a complete obscenity which has already killed hundreds of thousands of the poorest people in the world.

    Whilst its good to be home, our house has got computer parts and engine parts litterred everywhere on the Ground Floor.

    He said he didn’t expect us back so soon.

    He is expanding his business and building servers everywhere – at the same time as stripping down the engine of his car to fix his blewn head gasket.

    Pity we haven’t got an enormous garage. I did suggest he hires one until his new place is ready.

    But at least both our kids are working and earning money – even our daughter at University.


  • chrisentia


    Perhaps you are letting your enthusiasm run away with you when you say Tories and Labour are ‘toast’, but they are certainly getting burned round the edges.

    As a long-standing Lib-Dem voter I am pleased you have joined us, and hope you will have a very positive influence on the party.

    There are a few Lib-Dem policies I am not very happy about, and would welcome your comments.

    1. Road-pricing: this will mean that some government computer, lots of government employees with access to it, and people who can bribe or blackmail them, will know where my car is at every minute of every day. Civil liberties?

    2. Nuclear power: I don’t think there is any way in which we can reduce carbon emissions quickly enough without nuclear power being part of the solution.

    3. Trident: what is all this nonsense about no like-for-like replacement? Let’s just get rid of the meaningless British nuclear deterrent as our contribution to global nuclear weapons reduction and elimination.

  • arsalan

    I think the Lib Dems are going to do well for the same reason Labour did well when they wan against the torries.

    And that is by leaving all of their convictions and replacing them all with NeoLabour.

    NeoLabour Labour tries to beat conservatives at being conservative, and does, which forces the conservatives to the right. And Neo Labour follows them to the right until they overtake them. This continues and continually pushes British politics to the right.

    Nick Clegg has chosen this election winning formula, he has chosen to copy the bastards in everything that counts.

    So what change will he bring?

    HE has decided to dump all liberal positions, so what is it that can be gained?

  • Jake Turner

    The joke about the two party system is that it has long obscured the centre-progressive majority which exists in Britain.

    Labour + Lib Dems + Greens > Tories + UKIP + BNP

  • tony_opmoc


    I agree completely with you.

    I have never thought of my views as left wing. I am an outright Capitalist and believe in the values of hard work and making things work for your own company or the company your work for…

    But I am far to the Left of all the Mainstream Parties.

    I actually care about the poorest people in the World.

    I think our history is an obscenity, and I think that unless we bring fairness and equality of opportunity in the real sense of the word to every human being on this planet – then the human race has no future.

    I think things have got considerably worse for the vast majority of humans on this planet over the last 20 years.

    We are going in completely the wrong direction.

    No one in our mainstream political parties will even discuss the very real issues facing our future.

    It is still all about Greed and Control by Fear and Total and Complete Utter Lies.

    How can I possibly vote for any of these Extreme Right Wing Political Parties?


  • Anonymous

    I will vote liberal, hey the deserve a chance, but i’d like some important questions be answered.

    1) Anytning about pushing for a new 9/11 investigation

    2) Public Enquiry on 7/7

    3) Public Enquiry on Dr Kellys death.

    Any before any complains about 9/11 nut job conspiracy theorist, there is scientific, peer reviewed information on how the towers (3 of them) were brought down.

  • Craig


    on your three points:

    1 road pricing – in effect makes every road a toll road. I don’t have a lot of trouble with this as I think private car use should be discouraged. They won’t track me as I don’t have a car!

    2 nuclear power – I am one hundred per cent against it. Hideously uneconomic unless you conveniently hide the massive cleanup costs, and always brings state authoritarianism – see Edge of Darkness

    3 Trident – I agree with you 100%

  • ingo


    Just had the first dirty trick played on us here in Blackburn.

    Parked our poster trailer with picture of Jack Straw on a PAY+ DISPLAY CAR PARK.

    Thing is it was a working mens club private car park. One side of our trailer poster, costing some 295 squid, was ripped off within three hours.

    When we arrived at about 7pm to bring the trailer home, three men, who must have been watching us on the CCTV came out arguing with us that we can’t put it there, when it was clearly marked public.

    Police finally came and promised to look at the CCTV pictures.

    We shall see


  • Wheely Bin Laden

    I hope that the polls turn out to be correct and that the implied increase in popularity turns into more seats, rather than just coming second in more constituencies than before. I don’t understand why more people aren’t willing to vote LibDem, if only to give the other two mainstream parties a well deserved kick in the teeth. I don’t like the road pricing policy however, primarily because of the civil liberty issues, and don’t find your “I don’t care because I don’t have a car.” attitude very edifying Craig. How about, “I don’t care about racial discrimination because I’m not black.”?

    On a personal level, being disabled I’m reliant on my car for transport. I don’t live near a bus stop, but even if I did I would still have problems carrying shopping, which at present I can load from a shopping trolley into my car and take directly to my house. I am exempted from road tax but what would happen to this concession with road pricing? This wouldn’t stop me voting LibDem as no party is ever going to reflect all my ideals or personal interests fully, but it means voting for a policy which has potentially considerable civil liberty implications as well as being likely to have a negative effect on me as a disabled person.

  • Anonymous

    “…if you think the details of your personal life are of interest to others, why not start your own blog elsewhere?”

  • amk


    “1. Road-pricing: this will mean that some government computer, lots of government employees with access to it, and people who can bribe or blackmail them, will know where my car is at every minute of every day. Civil liberties?”

    Government IT projects tend to be disasters. This is largely the government’s fault, but that’s another rant.

    If the purpose of road pricing is to reduce car use raising fuel duty (with exception or rebates for those who really need cars) would be the simpler and more effective solution. As heavy vehicles use more fuel it would also help cover the higher road maintenance costs of heavier vehicles.

    Wheely Bin Laden: is it not possible for you to get your groceries delivered?

    Speaking of energy policy, I find it scandalous that there is no interest in solar power satellites from any major party. SPSs are one of two potential Golden Bullets for (almost) all our energy problems (the other being nuclear fusion) and is being seriously pursued in the US and Japan. Europe is taking a lead in fusion (in both tokamak and inertial confinement approaches) but doing nothing with SPS.

  • Alfred

    “The sovereign power of the British people is no longer a private bagatelle of New Labour and the Tories.”

    What sovereign power?

    Britain is no longer a sovereign nation. That is why the election is a total bore, and why simple-minded members of the electorate are turning to the Liberals in the deluded belief that if neither the Tories nor the Labor Party can provide leadership on issues that they care about, then maybe the Liberals can.

    But of course, the Liberals are no more free to decide Britain’s course than either of the other parties, a fact that will begin to sink in before the vote, by which time the Lib-Dem surge will be fading fast.

    The election outcome will be decided by a minority of the electorate that votes “left,” “Right” or possibly “center” in the deluded belief that these terms actually mean something and that the outcome of the election could somehow possibly matter.

  • nintendo r4

    Pretty great link. I would like to say the policy for the British Conservative Party Lib-Dems have to play catch up because Daniel Hannan is in the drivers seat…

  • technicolour

    Actually, if the Lib Dems can get their Freedom Bill through, it will matter quite a lot to everyone sick of the fear imposed by the arbitary and occasionally quite insane powers now given to councils, police and the government.

  • Alfred

    See Clegg has called for an end to the “Special Relationship”:

    which sounds like a step in the right direction if Britain wishes to recover some degree of national sovereignty. But then he said he supports the Afghanistan war. So, false alarm. Just more political BS: In future we follow US/Isreal’s demands on our armed forces because, well, we happen to agree with them.

  • Neil craig

    Interesting & I hadn’t spotted that though I had seen that the proportion of people who thought Cleg won (about 40% compared to 20% each for the other 2) mutliplied by the proportion of the population who saw it (9.4 out of 60 million) could not possibly account for the LDs going up about 9% in the polls.

    Bear in mind that at the EU election UKIP came 2nd & the LDs 4th so I think if it was a genuine media & voting level playing field it is not just Labour & Tory who would be toast.

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