Labour voters are switching straight to Tory as second preference and Tory straight to Labour in Scottish local government by-elections held under the STV system. These are not opinion polls, they are real elections.
I was shown results and transfer sheets yesterday in the margin of the SNP vetting assessment of potential candidates which I was attending. Unfortunately I did not have a chance to copy down the figures, but the pattern was clear.
For those unfamiliar with single transferable vote, you mark the ballot paper 1,2,3 in the order you prefer the candidates. What is now becoming clear is that Labour voters tend to put the Tories at 2, and Tories put Labour as 2. I have been arguing for years that there are no significant policy differences between Labour and Tory – it is a fake choice. I will never forget at the count in Clackmannan the Labour and Tory councillors and their wives all celebrating together, all looking well-heeled and arrogant and entitled, impossible to tell apart.
That the few remaining Labour voters put the Tories as second preference, instead of the Greens, SNP or Liberal Democrat, shows that the core Labour support base is largely Blairite. Which explains why the ultra-Blairite Jim Murphy, scion of the far right Henry Jackson Society, is set to become Labour Party leader in Scotland. It is also interesting that Tory voters are happy to give second preferences to Labour, recognising that Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Tess Jowell and Harriet Harman – every one a millionaire – are doughty protectors of the rich and the established order.
I haven’t been able to find a website that records local byelection results including the transfers – some results are listed on politicalbetting.com but only give the final result after all transfers. If anyone can find the data online I would be grateful. I should love to see an analysis from James Kelly on this one.
“Republicifscotland”
“how much longer are those unelected Lords going to ride rough shod over the common man.”
_____________________
You are certainly common, RoS, but do you feel you are speaking for the common man?
RoS
““That sounds a little like the old Nazi spiel of “they bring it on themselves”, doesn’t it.”
“Are you by any chance moving closer to another spot of Holocaust-denying?”
_____________________________
Habbtherepeater.
Erm! You’ve already addressed this point at 3.42pm”
___________________
I did indeed, but got no answer from your prolific keyboard, so I thought I’d ask again.
MPs were last night accused of working ‘part-time’ after it emerged they will only have to spend two full days a week in Parliament until the election.
From this week, they will be allowed to leave Westminster to begin their weekend as early as Wednesday afternoons because of a lack of legislation to pass.
Backbench and opposition MPs have accused the Government of presiding over a ‘zombie Parliament’ with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats unable to agree on major new laws.
Despite the logjam, the Coalition will go on until May because of a law creating fixed-term parliaments of five years.
The Government Chief Whip Michael Gove informed all 303 Tory MPs in a note last month that there will be no major legislation on Thursdays for the foreseeable future.
It means the politicians, who are paid £67,060 a year, are now expected to attend Parliament for just two-and-a-half days from 2.30pm on Mondays to the end of business on Wednesdays. Thursdays will be treated as a one-line whip, meaning attendance is not required.
_________________________________________
No wonder the UK is going to hell in a hand basket, with these lazy useless fat greedy troughing b*stards in charge.
“I did indeed, but got no answer from your prolific keyboard, so I thought I’d ask again.”
______________________________
Habbtheblind
You really have been at the kosher single malt (probably from the Milk and Honey Distillery).
I replied to you insinuation at 3.55pm, please pay attention.
Iain Orr; “I have engaged in rational debate with both. It’s not difficult”
Seems like we both must have very different definitions of what rational means, but best not to go into this too deeply here, which leads me to end on a positive, in that despite the aforementioned, I think you would probably make a good Mod, so don’t feel shy in coming forward if you ever get the urge.
RepublicOfForgetfulness
“Habbtheblind
You really have been at the kosher single malt (probably from the Milk and Honey Distillery).
I replied to you insinuation at 3.55pm, please pay attention.”
________________________
Do you mean the non-reply which read as follows:
“Oh I’m sure you’re better placed than I am, to know the answer to that one.” ?
“You are certainly common, RoS, but do you feel you are speaking for the common man?”
________________________________
Habbthetrier
You’ll have to do better than that if you want to ruffle my feathers, as for common, I hear you’re as common as MARMALADE.
Macky
Welcome back, laddie. Where have you been – haven’t seen you on here or on Squonk lately. Have you been busy on some other website(s)? (I won’t ask which, of course).
Republicofscotland
Or as common as Mord Kitchener’s valet (cf Squonk, earlier today) 🙂
“Do you mean the non-reply which read as follows:”
“Oh I’m sure you’re better placed than I am, to know the answer to that one.” ?
_______________________
habbthesmartarse.
You’re a clever cookie I’m pretty sure you can work it out for yourself.
Keep of the Negev Porter Alon beer, its making you very forgetful.
Brent crude $66 a barrel.
Next support level $60, then $40.
Twice bounced of $66 so far and at $66.28 as I type. Don’t think it can go much lower (for any length of time) as it is crucifying US “tight” oil producers. WTI (USA) is bouncing off $63.
Mary
8 Dec, 2014 – 7:58 am
From your link Mary:
“At the [Zionist Federation], we are committed to bringing over expert speakers to educate and enthuse our audiences.”
“We don’t necessarily agree with all their views… But we do think they should all be heard,”
………………………………………………………………………………………
Why don’t they invite George Galloway to speak?
“Twice bounced of $66 so far and at $66.28 as I type. Don’t think it can go much lower (for any length of time) as it is crucifying US “tight” oil producers. WTI (USA) is bouncing off $63.”
Whoever cuts production loses market share. Russia might play it out a bit longer and see who breaks first.
Iain at 4.44 – that was a civilised and gracious response – thanks for raising the level of discourse.
@Craig
“I am interested in what is happening post-referendum. In Midlothian a week ago, for example, Tory votes transferred
47.6% to Labour
12.9% to SNP
39.5% to Independent
So it is Labour who are the true “tartan tories”.”
I agree, perhaps we all need to look a little closer at the Midlothian result – so that is exactly what I did.
Well for a start the number of votes which the Tory had prior to elimination was a mere 359 (c10% of those voting) and 149 of those votes didn’t transfer at all – of the remainder 100 trf to Labour, 27 to the SNP and 83 to an Independent.
So Craig I hope you will agree that the whole premise of you blog was based upon pretty flimsy statistics – or perhaps they were sufficient to meet your standards?
As for the “tartan tory” jibe – that isn’t one I have employed – I tend to respect voters even if they disagree with me – but lets just say SNP has been rather more supportive of the current coalition partners when it comes to votes transferred to them since 2012 (725 vs 310) which is a rather more significant statistic than the ones Craig bandies around.
Mary
8 Dec, 2014 – 8:08 am
“272 food banks across big cities and towns”
…………………………………………………………………….
I believe David Cameron said that the rise in food banks was evidence of the success of his “Big Society” concept.
Iain Orr 8 Dec, 2014 – 12:57 am
I agree with your general point – that dissenting voices are a healthy and useful counterpoint to the majority opinion on this blog. A good argument will challenge doctrine, expose false logic, check ‘facts’, and entertain, all in one. However, lumping all dissenters into one basket is unfair. Phil and Habbakuk are quite different basket cases.
Phil is an anarchist, an enemy of hierarchical organizations. He is duty-bound to attack Craig’s party political aspirations and his assessment of Craig’s ambassadorial past is fair comment. In short, his behaviour is consistent with his anarchist beliefs and adds perspective and variety to this blog. Rude, sardonic, ungrateful – I reckon he’s curious how far he can push Craig before getting banned whilst grudgingly respectful that he hasn’t been.
Habbakuk’s posts, on the other hand, seem to be motivated by egotism and attention seeking. If there is any value in his provocative and contrarian style, it is more than negated by the distraction he causes from sensible debate. He has acknowledged in the past that his posts cause disruption but he refuses to alter his behaviour – the most charitable conclusion I can draw from this is that he doesn’t care whether he ruins the blog or not. I would be very interested, Iain, if you could provide me with one example of a “contribution of considerable value” from Habbakuk’s xx posts on this page.
So Iain, we are agreed that Phil adds to the blog. Habbabkuk has posted 33 of 164 posts on this page. I invite you to disprove my assertion that he subtracts from this blog by pointing to one useful contribution amongst them.
^^^ Damn, meant to delete the last sentence in 3rd paragraph.
Ba’al Zevul
8 Dec, 2014 – 8:42 am
“It’s Monday. Here’s a morale-booster for ya –“
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30342948
…………………………………….
“Tony Blair says politicians are underpaid”
Perhaps his “logic” is that if politicians were highly paid they would be less likely to fiddle their expenses (commit fraud).
I don’t subscribe to that view – there comes a point when greed overcomes need and the more they get the more they want; it’s the same with power.
Habbabkuk (la vita è bella)
8 Dec, 2014 – 11:27 am
“This may be because my points are, on the whole, unanswerable…”
………………………………………………………………………………….
Thanks for brightening my day Habbabkuk. I love a good laugh.
Airdrieonian
8 Dec, 2014 – 1:26 pm
“For those of us with a keen eye on both Scottish Politics and Scottish Football, the parallels between Labour/Tory and Celtic/Rangers are uncanny.”
“A large swathe of their “support” spend time bad-mouthing the opposition, but in reality they exist in an unhealthy symbiotic relationship.”
“It in no way surprises me that the Unionist wagons are being circled, and that the SNP as the Injuns will face Labour cowboys only too happy to use Tory guns.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………
An excellent analogy Airdrieonian.
Many insiders see $40 coming.
EXXON says it’s fine with $40, but that is just one market. The financial web is more diverse.
“Petrodollar recycling peaked at $511 billion in 2006, BNP said.
“At its peak, about $500 billion a year was being recycled back into financial markets. This will be the first year in a long time that energy exporters will be sucking capital out,” said David Spegel, global head of emerging market sovereign and corporate Research at BNP.
In other words, oil exporters are now pulling liquidity out of financial markets rather than putting money in. That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer.
Spegel acknowledged that the net withdrawal was small. But he added: “What is interesting is they are draining rather than providing capital that is moving global liquidity. If oil prices fall further in coming years, energy producers will need more capital even if just to repay bonds.”
The reversal is largely down to Russia and the rest of the ex-Soviet Union, which BNP estimates have withdrawn $57 billion from world markets.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/03/emerging-oil-petrodollars-idUSL6N0ST2YZ20141103?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews
Ben,
It’s not going to $40 IMHO!
AA; Saudis going to close the valve?
Muscleguy
“As for the SNP being a nationalist party, well knock me down with a feather. Labour, Tory and FibDems are British Nationalist parties. There were nationalists galore on both sides in the referendum, the argument was over which nation state should hold sway here. Just because the three British Nationalist parties do not have the N-word in their titles doesn’t stop them being Nationalist in outlook and action.”
I agree. The SNP are just more of the same.
You seem to mistake my objections to your nationalism and my own nationalism. I have said nothing to indicate this and it most certainly is not the case. You have jumped to the wrong conclusion.
“Your analysis is that of a simpleton.”
Hilarious.
Lance Vance
8 Dec, 2014 – 3:52 pm
“Tell you what, you YESERS don’t half have a chip on your shoulder. Just give it rest, you took part in a democratic process, the vote didn’t go your way, it’s done, finished. That was the deal- talk about kicking about the arse out of it!!”
……………………………………………………………………….
“…a democratic process…”???
Lies, threats, scaremongering and false promises from all three major parties; backed by almost all of the corporate media and the state BBC; is not democracy Lance.
Voters make decisions using their own knowledge and information gleaned from the media: the media lied.
The people of Scotland have twigged on.
Another referendum is inevitable, in a few years, because democracy was denied.
I love ————·´`·.¸¸.¸¸.··.¸¸Node!
I can see wishful commodities traders wishful thinking. They can ride it down then up again and make a bundle.
http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/The-Math-Behind-40-a-Barrel-Oil-USO
To get to $40.75 per barrel I considered the following: world oil supply and consumption data since 1990, inflation since 1990, crude oil price and the U.S. dollar index. Oil supply, consumption and price data was retrieved from http://www.eia.gov and is in an average annual format. The CPI was used to represent inflation and is also an average annual value. All four are graphed as cumulative percent change in the chart above beginning with 1990 equal to zero. Crude’s price is on the left axis while the rest are on the right.
In 24 years through 2013, global oil supplies have risen a cumulative 35.6 % while demand has risen 35.8%. In twelve years supplies exceeded consumption while crude’s price rose nearly 300%. A gap of 0.2% between supply and demand suggests that actual oil production has done an excellent job of meeting real demand. Global spare production capacity is more than sufficient to cover any supply shortfalls in 2014. So supply and demand is considered to be in balance, but price is clearly bloated in the new hi-tech era of oil exploration, drilling and production.
Inflation plays a role in the price of crude oil. Using CPI as the metric, inflation has risen 78.3% since 1990 through the end of 2013. Adjusting crude oil’s annual average price in 1990 of $24.53 a barrel for inflation would be $43.66. Since a barrel of oil is priced in U.S. dollars, the U.S. dollar index must also be considered. Due to recent strength, the U.S. dollar index is actually 7.5% higher today than it was at the end of 1990. Factor this into the inflation adjusted crude price of $43.66 and the net result is $40.40 per barrel. This is slightly less today than my initial calculation of $40.75 because the dollar has further strengthened since Wednesday. “
Rose
You are right. I used to browse quickly past Habbabkuk’s comments but he used some evil ad feminems to Mary, which the Mods refused to delete, and I still don’t think I have succeeded in underscoring him in nasty ad hominems to now, despite considerable support from co-readers.
The responsibility for maintaining standards lies with the Mods. I have made a mental note that Craig appears to have given no instructions except to avoid the blog being sued.
As with the case on the news this evening where a disabled man lost the right to priority seating on the bus, the responsibility for maintaining of female or disabled priveledges has been passed by Craig and by the Mods to the individuals concerned.
This is the mechanism by which the German people were led to ignore the persecution of minorities and how the corrupt imams of Saudi Arabia have educated the Muslim world to ignore the persecution by their jihadists of the ordinary Syrian Muslims.
Not your problem, nothing to see here, move on move on.
The level of the trolls may be low but allowing them to get away with insulting language will eventually condition us to this racist insolence. We have not got to the Saudi level yet where criticism of the regime will get yourself beheaded.
Free speech has to be maintained on both sides.
I am very grateful to Craig for allowing the rubbing of the trolls’ noses in their own errors to continue, even if it indirectly lowers the general tone. There is no language to describe the evilness of USUKIS politicians or their shills in the endless program of war against the Muslim world, or the corruption of their financial operations, except in the terrible threats by Allah in the Qur’an, against the perpetrators.
Most readers here would prefer filthy talk to fire talk, I believe.