I am working very hard on getting Sikunder Burnes into shape for publication. Just ten weeks left to achieve that. Still hacking a lot of draft material out of the text. This passage on the Russian Empire was written before the tragic events in Ukraine.
I still reckon the solution for Ukraine is a series of internationally supervised referenda, in the Eastern districts and also in Crimea, with UN peacekeepers in charge of security. Putin needs a ladder to climb down. For the West to base its position solely on the sanctity of arbitrary borders is unimaginative and fruitless.
I would point out that what follows was a draft, not finished writing:
British people, myself included, have to concentrate their intellectual resources to get a clear conceptualisation of the Russian Empire, which can be obscured from our view by a number of factors.
Firstly, from British history and geography, we British tend to think of colonies as something reached exclusively by ship. The idea that colonies can be a contiguous land mass with the metropolitan is not a pre-received idea for us. Russia’s absorption of the entirely alien cultures of vast areas of Asia was undoubtedly a massive colonial expansion. In Central Asia today, political societal and economic developments can only be understood as a post-colonial situation. Crucially, the broad mass of people are themselves entirely of the view that they are former colonised.1. But I found in the FCO a great many western and particularly British officials had much trouble with the concept.
Secondly, the transmutation of the Russian Empire into the Soviet Union confused the issue, in bringing a spurious equality to the different Soviet Socialist Republics. In particular, this brought members of the political elite from the Asian areas within reach of holding political power at the centre. But that is not at all unusual for the history of Empires in general, particularly as they mature. The economic relationships within the Soviet Union, with the Asian regions very much operating as suppliers of raw commodity or goods with little value added, followed a well-worn colonial pattern even if operated by central planning rather than overt capitalism. But many did not realise the Soviet Union in itself was an Empire incorporating colonial structures.
Thirdly, particularly for those brought up like myself during the Cold War, the Russians were distant and feared figures and not perceived as altogether European. In fact, the Russian conquest of the the North and heart of Asia was a major part of a complete encirclement of Asia by Europeans from the late eighteenth to the end of the nineteenth century. This included the occupation by United States Europeans of the American Pacific Rim, and of Australia, New Zealand, East Africa, much of South East Asia and India by the British and occasionally others. Russian and British expansion into Asia were part of the exact same process, except the British often did not see it:
A long liberal tradition took a sceptical view of Russia’s European credentials, seeing Tsarist Russia as as “Asiatic despotism” too crude and too poor to be “one of us”…A more realistic view would see Russia, like Spain or the Hapsburg Empire, as one of the frontier states that played a vanguard role in Europe’s expansion…behind Russia’s expansion was in fact its European identity…the economic energy that flowed from Russia’s integration into the European economy; and the intellectual access that Russians enjoyed, from the sixteenth century onward, to the general pool of European ideas and culture. Russians, like other Europeans, claimed their conquests as a “civilizing mission.”2
Britain’s claim that Russia was excluded from the “civilizing mission” of Empire because it was a despotism, when British officials were arbitrarily blowing Indians from the muzzles of cannon while practising unabashed despotism, is something those of my age were educated not to question. The notion that the culture of Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Chekhov and Tchaikovsky is not European is self-evidently wrong. I found that walking around the 19th century Russian cantonments of Margilan in the Ferghana Valley, with its beautiful little theatre for amateur dramatics, its racecourse and mess hall, the architecture could have been a British hill station. It even has its Freemasons’ Lodge.
So Russia and Britain were expanding their colonial possessions in Asia, and their boundaries were pushing ever closer.
The Russophobes therefore were not talking absolute nonsense. Nobody knew how far North-west the British might push and how far South-east the Russians. Nor was it physically impossible for a Russian army to invade India through Afghanistan or Persia. Alexander, Mahmood, Tamerlane, Babur, Nadir Shah and Ahmed Shah had all done that. The logistics were difficult, but not impossible. The British were very aware that historically India was vulnerable to attack from the North West. In the marvellous prose of an end of Empire administrator, Kerr Fraser-Tytler:
“For upwards of 2,000 years the tide of conquest rose and fell, pouring in great cascades over the breakwater of these most vital mountains, seeping through the passes, or flowing round the exposed Western flank, to surge onwards to the south where it spread out, stayed and finally was absorbed in the great open spaces of India.”3
Where the Russophobes got it seriously wrong was their political analysis. A successful Russian invasion of India would have taken enormous resources and been a massive strain on the Russian state, and would certainly have precipitated a major European war. Russia’s economy was still recovering from Napoleonic devastation. Her foreign policy priorities were focused on the richer and more central lands of the Mediterranean and Caspian. Russia’s desire to divest Persia and Ottoman Turkey of vast provinces and to become a Mediterranean power was the consuming passion of the Tsar’s ministers, and Nesselrode in particular. Bringing Central Asia into play may occasionally be a useful bargaining chip with Britain, but was never more than that.
It is a peculiar fact that for two hundred years, fear of an attack by Russia has been a major factor in British foreign and above all defence policy, and was for much of my lifetime the factor that outweighed all others. Vast sums of the nation’s money have been squandered on guarding against this illusory threat, and that is still the unacknowledged purpose of the ruinously expensive and entirely redundant Trident missile system today. Yet on any rational analysis, Russia has never had any incentive to attack the United Kingdom, and historical research has never uncovered even a remote Russian intention actually to attack the United Kingdom. However an awful lot of arms manufacturers have become exceedingly wealthy, as have an awful lot of politicians, while the military have had enhanced careers.
As far as I can see, the zerohedge article is still up, along with the Daily Mail one. (But zeohedge could be a cache issue at my end.)
It seems there are two issues. A reaction to Ukraine stealing gas now, which has prompted a curtailment of gas delivery through Ukraine now, and future delivery, when Turk-stream is in place and delivering gas to a terminal at the Greek border — at which point it is envisaged that transit through Ukraine will terminate.
In the last 2 days I’ve put a lot of time and effort into getting various commenters to post on appropriate threads. I stop moderating long enough to do some shopping and eat, and a whole bunch of you splurge any topic you like all over this thread.
Zero self-discipline. Tossers. You all want to be on the Front Page.
“It seems there are two issues …”
Yes, sounds about right.
“Zero self-discipline. Tossers.”
That sounds about right too. 😀
@ JG:
Russia has morphed into a large homozygous inter-racial country and is no longer adventurist as it was in the Tsars’ days.
OK we more or less agree, except on the homozygosity thing.
Russia, it seems, has a more or less enlightened nationalities policy that grants considerable autonomy to the many ethnicities that exist within the Russian Federation.
In this, Russia’s policy on multi-culti and multi-racialism is very different from that of Europe. The Russians recognize ethnic homelands where there seems to be no drive to force integration. Chechnya, for instance, is inhabited almost exclusively by Chechens.
Unfortunately, the Russian solution to a multi-racial and multi-cultural society, i.e., an archipelago of nationalities within a Russian sea, is not feasible in the small and crowded lands of Western Europe. That means that the individuality of the Western states is being destroyed by mass immigration.
Infowars picked up on it too and links to the “updated” DAILY MAIL article.
http://www.infowars.com/putin-strikes-back-russia-cuts-off-european-gas-supplies-starts-selling-dollars-the-decision-has-been-made/
Just a note. Usually anything without a date or attribution on the Mail website is fairly old.
“today Swiss Central Bank’s massive move”
_______________
Yes indeed. The Swiss National Bank had capped the CHF at the rate of 1 euro = CHF 1,20. Today the CHF was uncapped and leapt to almost parity with the euro.
Now, that rate will of course not hold but when the markets stabilise the CHF will continue to trade at an appreciated rate vis à vis the euro.
Whereas today’s rate overvalues the CHF to some extent, it is equally clear that the National Bank could not maintain the cap, which was unsustainable on the long run and produced several negatives for the Swiss economy and in particular the housing market bubble.
Personally, I can only welcome the National Bank’s move. As for Mr Goss’s question on the ruble, my advice would be to do nothing, or reather that it is too late to do anything – any sensible person holding rubles would have sold them months ago. It’s all a question of foresight!
and from your Infowars link, John
“As Bloomberg reports Russia “may unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and convert some of its foreign-currency holdings into rubles, the latest government effort to prop up an economy veering into its worst slump since 2009.”
“These are dollars which Russia would have otherwise recycled into US denominated assets. Instead, Russia will purchase even more Rubles and use the proceeds for FX and economic stabilization purposes.”
Infowars is dated today, as is Bloomberg.
There is financial volatility in the air without doubt
Price Chaos As Swiss Peg To Euro Is Pulled
Sky’s Ian King examines the implications for Britain as a shock decision by Switzerland resonates across world financial markets
http://news.sky.com/story/1408399/price-chaos-as-swiss-peg-to-euro-is-pulled
15 January 2015
‘But there are other deeper and more profound reasons why we should care.
This is the Swiss National Bank signalling, as clearly as it can, that it is braced for full-blown quantitative easing from the European Central Bank.
The ECB will shortly spend hundreds of billions on an attempt to boost demand in the eurozone, pushing the value of the single currency sharply lower in the process. If you were the SNB, you would not want to be standing in the way of that.
Central banks that try to buck the market generally come off worse, as the Bank of England and Norman Lamont, the then Chancellor, discovered on 16 September 1992 when speculators like George Soros helped blow sterling out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.’
Hack away Tai Pan..looking foreward to receiving my FREE copy LOL Sounds like interesting reading ! Read Dalrymple’s book when I was in Kabul..great history but not much depth of character. Did not dig deep enough into the personalities and feelings of men such as S.B. Too much boring theoretical guff and analysis on political and historical crap which I found tedious. I have a signed copy by the way..by the man himself….Ho Hum..Very much looking foreward to your analysis on the whole shebang..knowing you it will be far more interesting than W.D. Ps..are there lecherous Sahibs and dusky Afghan courtisans involved. If not I will not be recommending friends to purchase via Amazon !!
Dreoilin
““As Bloomberg reports Russia “may unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and convert some of its foreign-currency holdings into rubles, the latest government effort to prop up an economy veering into its worst slump since 2009.”
“These are dollars which Russia would have otherwise recycled into US denominated assets. Instead, Russia will purchase even more Rubles and use the proceeds for FX and economic stabilization purposes.””
_______________
No objection to you posting that, obviously, but what’s new?
When a country’s currency is sliding, one of the first things a govt does is to to intervene on the market and buy it, using its foreign currency reserves, in an effort to stabilise the currency.
You’ll probably remember that when the UK was undergoing its repeated sterling crises in the 1960s and 1970s the Bank of England was doing it all the time.
Habbabkuk and Jemand, the premod blocks imposed for posting on the wrong threads have been removed.
“No objection to you posting that, obviously, but what’s new?”
From the same Infowars link:
“Call it less than amicable divorce, call it what you will: what it is, is Russia violently leaving the ranks of countries that exchange crude for US paper.”
and from another zerohedge piece
“Crude Collapses Almost 10% From Post-SNB Highs, Erases Yesterday’s OPEX Ramp”
WTI Crude has collapsed back to $46.50… the scene of the crime for yesterday’s “spoof”-ramp manipulation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-15/crude-collapses-almost-10-post-snb-highs-erases-yesterdays-opex-ramp
“When a country’s currency is sliding, one of the first things a govt does is to to intervene on the market and buy it, using its foreign currency reserves, in an effort to stabilise the currency.”
But perhaps it has realised that the dollar is worthless. It seems with the rocketing rise in the Swiss Franc the dollar is being ditched. Nobody knows where 9 trillion dollars has gone from the Federal Reserve $30,000 (if I remember right) for every US family (or taxpayer)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QK4bblyfsc
To cap it all the US national debt is larger than its GDP by some $750,000,000,000 give or take a cent or two.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
“You’ll probably remember that when the UK was undergoing its repeated sterling crises in the 1960s and 1970s the Bank of England was doing it all the time.”
That’s right Habbabkuk. I distinctly recall Harold Wilson telling me that the pound in my pocket would not be affected. He didn’t tell me I would not be able to afford to go abroad. Anyway what’s happening to the Swiss Franc will make it hard for anybody to holiday there. I couldn’t afford to go before. 🙂
Sorry, mods. I’ll post about the declining price of oil (if I can be arsed) on an independence page, if Fred will…
“You’ll probably remember that when the UK was undergoing its repeated sterling crises in the 1960s and 1970s the Bank of England was doing it all the time.”
I was a youngster then, Habbabkuk. What interested me had nothing to do with the Bank of England. Or the Central Bank of Ireland for that matter.
Duma moves to outlaw ‘undesirable’ foreign groups
http://rt.com/politics/222883-russia-undesirable-groups-bill/
CanSpeccy
Any real proof that Nazi’s are in power in Ukraine? You know just because RT claims it, it does not necessary makes it a fact. The last time I was in Moscow (quite recently) I saw more nazified elements there than I have seen ever before. Every month dozens Central Asians are being brutally attacked and many killed by these nazified bustards. But for MWL this is not something you are concerned with. You narrative is that Vlad the Nazikiller is a good guy and everything else is little moral hazard. Just like uncle Joe’s murder of millions. He was after all the main opponent of Amerian imperialism. Why would good MWL be concerned with such things.
Bevin
“As to Russian expansion eastwards, this is best understood in the context of Chinese expansion westwards in the C18th. The Qing dynasty was extremely active in expanding the Empire west and dismantling the threat posed by the Zunghar Empire. Russian expansion, in the other direction, was, to a great extent, coordinated with the Chinese.”
Yea, yea. Russians always expanded out of necessity. Today Kremlin claims that they need Ukraine because it fears NATO. Tomorrow they will expand back to Central Asia because they will fear radial Islam. Excuse for expansion could always be found and guess what? Nobody judges those who won. Looser are the ones who always get sh..t.
There is no historic or any other evidence supporting that Qing was going to expand west of Eastern Turkestan or onwards of outer Mongolia. And Russia has started eastern conquest in 16th century and continued well after it was clear that Qing is no longer able not only to expand but to rule what they have conquered. In fact it was Russia that forced Qing to later accept Russian mandate over Manchuria what was once birthplace of Qing dynansty.
Canspeccy
“Russia is not hostile to Europe, merely defensive in response to clear US-inspired European aggression”
As I said above, Russians are always hostile out of necessity. You just need to ask those Polls, Hungarians, Czechs and other who have once been beaten by Russians how much aggression they meant before Russians came (with tanks and other killing ammunition) and taught them wisdom of peace and joy. What a load of MWF bullsh…t is in your reading of history.
Fred,
The fall in the oil price would have cost an independent Scotland about 5% of GDP. As the economy is growing, that would be a net recession of about -3%. Not pleasant, but not a “disaster.” The falling price of oil of course boosts the 90% plus of the Scottish economy that isn’t oil and that will work through over the next couple of years.
You seem to have a highly exaggerated view of the position of oil in the Scottish economy.
Uzbek, all European states have fought their neighbors for centuries. That’s why the english hate the French, the French hate the Germans, the Germans hate the Poles, and the Poles hate the Russians.
But that doesn’t help explain the present situation in Europe where Russia is clearly not threatening anyone, merely responding to US aggression via Ukraine — aggression backed by the stupid frump Merkel, the paranoid Poles and those silly Baltic people who think it smart, as piddling non-entities, to insult their neighboring super-power. It was, as I recall, the ill manners of the people of Riga that turned Peter the Great against the Latvians.
The fall in the oil price would have cost an independent Scotland about 5% of GDP. As the economy is growing, that would be a net recession of about -3%. Not pleasant, but not a “disaster.” The falling price of oil of course boosts the 90% plus of the Scottish economy that isn’t oil and that will work through over the next couple of years.
Now repeat that, re: Russia. LOL.
@ Uzbek
Any real proof that Nazi’s are in power in Ukraine?
Are you an agent provocateur like Glenn_UK, Habbaturd, Clark, et al., or just someone completely unaware of what’s going on?
If anyone here needs reminding that Arse Yatsenyuk just told the Germans that it was a great shame Russia defeated Hitler’s Germany, or that Presidential candidate Tymoshenko wants to nuke the ethnic Russians of East Ukraine, or that President Poroshenko endorsed Tymoshenko’s genocidal program with his let them starve in their basements speech, then what are they here for? I mean if you know nothing whatever about world affairs, why not just stick to knitting, or whatever you do know about.
“You seem to have a highly exaggerated view of the position of oil in the Scottish economy.”
A benefit of the falling price of oil is that transportation is cheaper which helps industrial producers though I suspect lower price is a short-term measure and soon we will be back to normal (if there is not a collapse of the system as we know it).
Canspeccy, I saw that about Yatsenyuk. His knowledge of history is next to zero. But when Reuters reported it they left out the bit of his speech which said we don’t want the Russians getting back to attacking Germany and Ukraine as they did in the Second World War.
Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk’s Nazi Rhetoric: Accuses USSR of having invaded Germany and Ukraine during WW2: