UPDATED Good Morning Britain trumpeted its latest poll today showing a net increase in the Tory lead since last week of four points, to 45% to 31% over Labour.
As you know, opinion pollsters do not just take the raw figures provided by respondents, they weight those respondents to provide a representative sample by age, gender, location, past voting history etc.
But when you drill down into the headline results from the weighted samples, they make no sense at all. For example Survation in this poll have the Conservatives sweeping up Labour in London by 46.8% to 41.2%. In 2017 the Conservatives got hammered in London by 33.1% to 54.5%. Survation are showing a swing from Labour to Conservative in London of 13.5%. That is absolutely massive, and nobody believes that is happening on the ground. The Tories could well lose several more seats in London.
Similarly in Scotland, Survation show the SNP vote down nearly nine per cent compared to 2017, at 33.2%. Again, nobody believes for a moment the SNP vote is really as low as that.
Of course I understand that the sub sample for each area from which these results are calculated is very small. But expecting that a number of sub-samples, which at the regional level are self-evidently nonsense, chance to balance out into an accurate national picture when you add them all up, is ludicrous. I am only looking at one poll here, and not particularly picking on Survation for any reason. But I hope this demonstrates that opinion polls should be viewed with extreme scepticism.
Original Post:
I live in a marginal constituency, where the excellent Joanna Cherry of the SNP has a lead of just over 1,000 over the Tories. If the most recent opinion polls are correct, the parties’ standings at this moment are similar to the result last time, the momentum is with the Tories and this should be a key Tory target. Yet I have not received one single Tory leaflet (and I live on one of the main residential streets) nor have I seen one single Tory campaigner, including when I have been out delivering leaflets for Joanna Cherry myself. Nor have I seen one single Tory poster in a house.
It is not just on TV that the Tories have been skipping interviews and debates, they seem to have eschewed any semblance of a ground campaign too, in what presumably is a key target seat for them. Boris Johnson is not popular with any of the local residents I have spoken to, and there is no enthusiasm at all for Brexit in this part of Edinburgh. In short, I am absolutely unable to square the opinion polls with the evidence of my own eyes and ears.
What is your experience?
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Great analysis, Craig. The opinion polls are largely a joke. They always show big leads against Labour between elections and at the start of the campaign, giving the media ammunition to destabilise the Labour Party and leadership, and then mysteriously ‘narrow’ dramatically close to the election. Note also how at this election the polls seem to exactly match the Tory campaign narrative of the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party being squeezed by the One Nation/Get Brexit done (ho,ho) Tories!
Very little mention is ever made either of the fact that the opinion polls have predicted the wrong result in the last three general elections and the referendum (not to mention the local elections and significant by-elections during that time).
I think this will be a lot closer than anyone is predicting. But as a pro-Indy Scot, I may well be speaking from a position of splendid isolation and hope, confident that whatever happens will serve our purpose.
For the record, historically speaking, the polls tend to underestimate Tory support. There’s interesting reasons for that too but in this case we have good grounds for assuming Labour is going to close the gap massively.
1) brexit has been put on the back burner to a large extent.
2) lots of new registrants who can’t be contacted through voter’s roll, and therefor cant be polled— estimates of around 4 million (mostly young people and immigrants).
3) momentum is with Labour and that’s a huge factor with 2 full days to go. The news right now isn’t helping the Tories at all.
4) general uncertainty and disloyalty amongst voters — the old party lines are there but very much looser than they used to be resulting in massive potential for volatility.
Does anyone know what the projections are for the Brexit Party in terms of seats expected to win? If there’s a hung parliament, that could matter. And if there’s a hung parliament, there may be several permutations and possibilities which could make for some interesting TV.
If the Tories win with a significant majority, I don’t think the left are going to take it lying down. This campaign and the role of the media in it, particularly the BBC, will go down as one of the most corrupt in all history. It’s going to be very easy to make the case for Scottish Indy when there’s riots and all sorts of chaos on the streets of England and Boris starts throwing his weight around.
Ah poor Katya she put her neck out and what happened?
Almost as if the photogate was timed to run over her.
Corbs doing cross between grandad and john lewis xmas ad
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204133009986850816
Ah now that’s …..
Come one, Labour – hammer this! One per cent growth next year!
While you’re at it, why not ask Bozo’s chum the Chief Rabbi about the FIVE Tory candidates (three still not suspended) who have come out with antisemitic comments?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50725715
I wonder when anti-Russianism will become as impermissible as anti-Jewishness. (Anti-Semitism would of course mean being hostile to Arabs and Jews, which would reduce its effectiveness in the view of its purveyors).
I’ve been thinking that if antisemitism is from now on to mean anti-Israeli policy and and anti-ziofash then perhaps we could refer to the hatred of Jews for being Jews should perhaps be referred to as Anti-Jewish. Of course that wouldn’t allow for Israel to muddy the water so it’s probably a nonstarter. Antisemitism or something
Quite astonishing, even by BBC ‘standards’, even by Newsnight ‘standards’, even by Emily Maitlis ‘standards’ that last night, after Johnson’s train wreckage yesterday, Emily Maitlis was busting a gut to rubbish, deride and decry Labour’s position on the NHS.
At one point her questioning was so ridiculous that Barry Gardiner was left just laughing at her.
Watch from 04:40 and try pausing the image a couple of times on Maitlis’ face to witness the pure, driven animus in her expression that at times looks almost fiendish in its pathetic, (failed) desperation to land a blow:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000c65x/newsnight-09122019
AMAZING REALLY. Instead of seeing this as positive for Labour and negative for Johnson she turned the table to attack Labour for not being strong enough on the NHS. I am truly gobsmacked.
She’s alright Jack with her large BBC salary* and a husband in investment management (Polygon Investment Partners).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Maitlis.
She was born in Canada. Her grandmother fled from the Nazis.
She has interviewed Barry Gardiner before and of course was P Andrew’s interviewer.
‘Brexit has given her plenty of those, from the now infamous eye-roll (a flicker of exasperation when Labour’s Barry Gardiner was speaking, which she didn’t even register, but which promptly went viral) to dramatic late-night votes, which have her tearing up the script.’
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2019/apr/21/emily-maitlis-i-always-think-oh-my-god-im-exhausted-i-want-vodka-and-bed-
2nd April 2019
*Her salary – £260,000-£264,999
https://www.radiotimes.com/news/tv/2019-07-02/bbc-pay-2019-top-salaries-revealed/
Yup, I was amazed at the sheer blatancy of it – not even bothering trying to pretend anymore.
Why would she pretend? She’s got hers, and the BBC has its monopoly and our money.
With apologies to Will Rogers, be grateful you’re not getting all the BBC you pay for. (If, like me, you never watch or listen to it except for David Attenborough and University Challenge).
And Attenborough is a fash. He seems to think the answer to climate change is killing half the population – beware the liberals, they usually harbour the most aggressive
solutions
David Attenborough is a “population controller”, a Malthusian extermination merchant, but overall several decades he made many hours of very fine programmes about the living world, although of course in recent years quality declined, but what would we expect?
Then there’s Michael Wood – he made some great stuff about Troy, and it was so sad that his more recent films about King Alfred were so poor. The Alfred stuff involved an awful lot of him saying the word “king” as though to encourage his audience to relish its beautiful rich, royal, majestic connotations. Yuck.
Of course both guys are the face of the so-modern patrician British neo-empire – but nonetheless, memorable and well-made films that deserve credit and deserve to be talked about decades after they were made.
“Cathy Come Home” was good too. Nice to see Ken Loach backing Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, but I wouldn’t have expected anything else.
Kenneth Clark’s “Civilisation”? Well we all know the message, but still, of high educational quality and worth watching.
Can’t think of much else. Didn’t the BBC come out with a computer at some point?
Saw that, Peter. These rich toffs in the media really do hate social democracy!
Saw it and retired for the evening…
A right to reply was offered to the Conservative party; and declined.
Obviously aware that it would be dealt with in absentia.
Excellent getting the Blairites outed before having to appoint him to the Cabinet next week. – bye bye Ashy.
Now when exactly did he have that conversation ( focus group!) with his TORY friend??
And just as the main issue of the campaign the NHS hits centre stage.
Very very spooky!
Send in the next traitor!
Overload of leaflets received from the defending Tory Paul Masterton in East Renfrewshire. Lost count of how many – 5 to 7 of them. Not one of the leaflets mentions Brexit and not one mentions Johnson. Every leaflet focuses on stop Indyref2. East Renfrewshire voted 74% to remain in the EU but this Tory plonker voted for a no deal Brexit. He is running scared. The SNP won this seat in 2015.
No canvassers came to the door and rang the doorbell though. Too scared to explain Brexit to a 74% remain constituency.
In Scotland the Tories are stop Indyref2. In the rest of Britain they are get Brexit done. The English tv in Scotland have been running anti snp propaganda non stop.
Footnote to above.
Another leaflet from the Tories delivered by the postie. All about stopping Indyref2. Not a word on any other subject. So much for this being the Brexit General election. The Tories are scared to mention Brexit in Scotland.
The Tories could send out a thousand leaflets to each person in Scotland and they would still never get near winning an election in Scotland. Tories are serial losers in Scotland so the only plan they have is to keep Scotland imprisoned in the UK to keep plundering our resources to benefit the SE of England.
Tory candidates say vote tory to stop Indyref2 yet voting tory results in Brexit and assures Indyref2.
The Tories candidates are simply not making sense.
A vote for a tory candidate in Scotland brings Indyref2 much closer.
I am voting SNP by the way.
“A vote for a tory candidate in Scotland brings Indyref2 much closer.”
I give up.
Safe Labour in the East Midlands checking in. I’ve had postal addresses from Labour (x1) and the LibDems (x2) Plus a Green leaflet. Not many posters, apart from outside the Labour constituency office (near to me). Plus no one’s knocked the door yet (Labour came during the Euros)
I despair so much of the BBC coverage, I can’t listen to the Today program any more, even my (Daily Mail quoting) Mum asked me why ” They don’t seem to like Corbyn very much”. even she has noticed. If I suspected the bias before, this has confirmed it. I’m cancelling my TV licence at the end of this month.
In Scotland we have had to put up with anti Scottish propaganda from all the Westminster controlled media for decades. Pity our family of UK Union friends elsewhere told us we are just whinging jocks.
Not much empathy now for others in UK suddenly realising what we in Scotland have been saying for decades, namely, the media in the UK stinks of propaganda, bias and anti Scottish racism. The Labour party in Scotland were and are major collaborators in this. Hence their tiny vote now in Scotland.
Exactly True Cubby
And lets remember the bbC cost Scotland her Independence.
I have been outside bbc in Glasgow protesting four times..
The First time was a protest against bbc Palestine Bias
Second time was protest against Nick Robinson Lies about Alex Salmond
Third time was Protest against the bbc protecting Pedophiles
Fourth time was Protest against bbc Scottish independence Bias… At which bbc staff were waving a union jack on the top floor..Time to get them Out of Scotland..The sooner the better.
Switch to Channel 4 news for a refreshing change and BBC question time?- don’t go there!
This is how the DS gauntlet is run. Ashworth must have known he was being recorded it sounds like a focus group conversation.
Why the voice obfuscation- if it was obvious he/she would be revealed?
When it became obvious yesterday that the PM & ‘his’ policies’ are such sham pinnochio puppets and the media personalities are the visible strings – it must be like coming round from a deep dream or a hypnotisation for many – to see what some of us have been screaming about daily, for years.
Did you see a minion at the bbc breaking ranks yesterday?
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler
It was reported early on the politics live page.
Her 8 tweet thread on the tory brexit is concise and cutting.
And in the brouhaha – completely got sunk – and her feed went quiet.
Get Brexit done survives another day! Whether Katya Adlers career at the BBC or any msm does is another question.
Or even poor private Pike once captain bumbling Peston gets done with the ‘stupid’ boy.
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As for the ICM poll reported yesterday – 24 hours later, their own site has not published it, so no raw data to debunk. What are they hiding?
——-
Monbiot larges it with his limited hangout today – why didn’t you mention it last month or everyday since George?
——–
The mission impossible teamCIA LauraK/Peston/Mair/the pretty heads in the studio/and helpers, pulled off another fine caper yesterday behind enemy lines and kept their manchurian candidate standing in a foreign country.
Our country.
———
Marina Hyde does her nicey Jekyll personae – no comments. Crace gets to do mild Corbyn campaign satire to take some flak instead.
——–
AS? Meh, so much yadayada yay, old news – we’re onto Muslims for Tories in Enochs seat and Hindus against muslim citizenship in India today – Oy Vey so much more fun.
What? WHAT??!?
———
Sorry for the length won’t be posting until later – got a funeral this afternoon for old chap who might still be with us had his home care package been more effective – not blaming the underpaid, undertrained, mainly foreign, care workers. He was from Yorkshire and would have voted Labour.
Who is Ashworth working for? I mean likely story joshing with your Tory chum in a closely fought election who happens to be a Tory!
“Who is Ashworth working for?”
CCHQ is the first possibility that jumps to mind. Could be MI5. Such scumbags have long been present in the inner circles of the Labour party and the trade unions too.
It’s worth noting that on the recording he doesn’t say either of the two things he has been accused of saying – that he hopes Labour will lose and that he believes Jeremy Corbyn is a national security risk.
Did he possibly mean something other than the civil service when he mentioned “the machine”? After he used this term, he explained that he meant the civil service. Was that because a) he’s used to using it and he didn’t know whether his friend was, or b) he actually meant something else (such as the cryptocracy or the Lobby) and knew a recording might be used later? (In which case, he sounds like a bit of a “Walt”.)
The Borg. Neocon machine. Just another Blairite baby. The Enemy of the Many.
The first chickencouper of the next parliament… just another part of Pompeos gauntlet.
The media bias cannot be made more evident than how non of the MSM have followed on Craig’s story of Johnson being pissed at the Remembrance Sunday service at the Cenotaph. Think of the headlines if Corbyn staggered about with his wreath
Get out there and repost far, wide, and fast. This is an election, I can remember when election politics was dirty, fun and marvellous…_
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/11/free-the-truth-a-short-speech/
C. M. “It is an interesting fact that one of the suite of rooms where the great ones gather for their sparkling wine and snacks before and after the Cenotaph ceremony on Remembrance Sunday is literally my old office, from when I was Deputy Head of the Africa Department of the FCO. It has always interested me that the grand people of British society, particularly those born to it, overlook the “little people” and forget they have agency. People like Boris Johnson do not see janitors, cleaners, cooks, drivers and waiting staff as anything but cyphers. They however see him, and I can tell you with certainty that the reason he messed up the Cenotaph ceremony, starting backwards and forward at the wrong time, laying the wreath upside down and generally stumbling around looking like an unmade bed, is that he was drunk. You could smell it off him. He arrived in that condition.”
Exactly Digger. Craig’s revelation about what happened on Remembrance Day speaks absolute volumes –which is why the media suppressed it so decisively. The BBC especially in the most bizarre Stalinist fashion.
The contrast in personalities would have been just too stark for a public considering who they wanted to run the country. Somebody who has withstood dog’s abuse from every quarter for 4 years with calm, dignity and grace. Or a guy who turns up pissed at the Cenotaph and stuffs a journalist’s phone in his pocket when confronted with his government’s deeds.
Remember last year at the cenotaph, when Corbyn’s jacket and the size of his poppy made it onto the front pages? The hypocrisy and corruption of the news media is mind boggling.
Wow – the Tuesday before the vote, so I clench my teeth and look at the front page of the Sun … and the Jonathan Ashworth story put out through Paul “Guido” Staines is all the Tories have got? I was expecting a vicious smear against Labour or perhaps a royal story for its swamping effect.
Is Ashworth LFOI or Pharma or both?
Perhaps Johnson and Rees-Mogg (remember him?) want the Tories to fall just short of a majority because that makes a crashout Brexit (i.e. a mega cash-in as the country gets Greeced) more likely?
Leaving the EU has of course long been an ambition of the British Left, as anyone familiar with the work of Michael Foot and Tony Benn will appreciate. Be assured it has nothing to do with assisting banksters (who have an unhappy knack of making money out of any situation).
That is what I thought too. The Ashworth story looks llike desperate mountains out of molehills from the Tories.
Let’s hope the young and ‘apathetic’ turn out in droves on Thursday to join us to vote out the Tories. I feel it is well within reach.
Is Ashworth LFOI or Pharma or both?
Don’t think so but may be a crypto Blairite.
I tend to be of the opinion that the most obvious explanation tends to be the correct explanation.
Q: The Tory’s are not letter-dropping?
A: Then the Tory Party is flat-broke.
How their finances got to be in such a state is another issue altogether, and I have no idea how that came to be.
But if they can’t spend to save their lives then it seems obvious to me that they must be monstrously short of cash.
Looking at the Electoral Commission website it looks like the Conservatives have received similar amounts to Labour.
Between 1 July and 30 September 2019
Conservative and Unionist Party £5,763,445
Labour Party £5,476,086
Total donations over £7,500 from 13 to 19 November:
Conservative and Unionist Party £2,967,000
Labour Party £3,488,000
Total donations over £7,500 from 20 to 26 November:
Conservative and Unionist Party £3,590,500
Labour Party £521,909
Possibly the difference is where they are spending it. Labour is focusing on the doorstep and leaflets while maybe the Conservatives are buying ads, especially online?
British Army engaged in anti Labour disinformation campaign on facebook, twitter etc regarding boy sleeping on the floor of a hospital.
—————–
”Woman says account hacked to post fake story about hospital boy
One version, posted by a man who claims to work for the British Army’s intelligence corps, has received 2,000 shares on Facebook; another, from a self-professed former soldier, has received a further 500.”
—————–
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/10/woman-says-account-hacked-to-post-fake-story-about-hospital-boy
Nice bunch. Can only imagine what information they spread in Iraq, Yemen, Chile etc
Rigged ballot here we come.
The women is very unlucky to be hacked and have her son be friends with Matt Hancock.
Are the Tories saving their money for a stupendous blitz of social media ads tomorrow and Thursday? Also, how much does a really massive hacking attack cost? Labour is relying a lot on its fancy software to keep track of canvassing returns, this could be vulnerable on the day.
I’m hoping though that their policy is just a reflection of their leader’s character, i.e. arrogant and lazy. This certainly applies to our local Tory MP (South East Cornwall) who told some school pupils that despite the election she wasn’t busy as she has a safe seat. She’s put out one leaflet and attended no public meetings.
Labour were cyberattacked on successive days four weeks ago.
I don’t know about a Wednesday and Thursday Facebook blitz. Maybe. How did Isaac Levido do it in Australia? He is supposed to have done a lot on Facebook and in the last few days, but I am not sure about the eve and actual day of polling. Interesting how he’s got such a low profile even among politicos. Many believe Cummings is running the campaign. Which is not to say Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy were talked about much in 2017, but they had more recognition than Levido.
Cyberattacks on Labour.
Finally the ICM poll being quoted last few days have published their data
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ICM-Voting-intentions-Data-tables-06-09-Dec-19.xlsx
I suggest the amateur psephologists and Craig get on the case.
I am out for the day so won’t have time to look properly but at first sight it looks as if their selected group voted 7% more tory than Lab in 2017.
The actual difference in the election was 2.5% – So an over representation of 4.5%!
Their basic raw votes are shown as 35% tory, 31% Labour. A margin of 4%.
Remove the over representation and the raw difference becomes a 0.5% LEAD for LABOUR!
It is only by adding undecideds in an uneven manner and the initial over representation of Tory voters that the headline tory Lead is invented.
Subject to a fuller analysis and any major error on my part I declare
GAME OVER.
NOW YOU KNOW WHY THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN HIDDEN AND SUCH A DIRTY ELECTION.
also bear in mind that they know full well that we’re not stupid (myself excluded), and so know that some clever people will remove their fudge factors to give a more ‘realistic’ result… So that too is likely still a fiction to manage expectations for their rigging purposes. They may now be aiming for a coalition with Lib Dems to avoid pushing the rigging too hard and revolt, where actually it clearly should be a Labour landslide. Believe it, don’t let them convince you otherwise or accept anything less.
I sympathise with what you and Craig are saying.
Small sample surveys have an interesting history, as you may verify by looking at the work of William Gosset, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset
The small samples of his studies saved a lot of time that would have been consumed previously with larger samples. But in his case he was studying biological samples and had considerable control over the variables involved. This is not the case with opinion polls,where there is less control over the circumstances of the data collection dealing, as the process does, with highly volatile variables. Add in the possible unconscious bias of how the questions are framed, the context in which they are asked, the interpretation of the answer and the inconstancy in the opinions voiced, due to pressures like not wishing to be entirely truthful in the answers.
This is the only way I can explain the historical variability and unreliability of opinion poll results. As far as I can see the only possible benefit that might be achieved from such polls is the hope that the results might sway the electorate one way or another, or conversely somehow discourage an ‘undesirable’ result.
Added to that is that focus groups after the Leaders debates have shown that Corbyn is capturing the undecided voter. This has been suppressed also.
good point, and the more trustworthy polls coming out of the debates suggest Labour wins the debate ~70-80% vs Tory ~20%. If this translates even partially into undecided votes… Boom.
On the general subject of election rigging in the UK, the novel “Game Ten” by James Long is a thriller set against the background of the possible rigging of the 1992 UK General Election. If I remember rightly it has an appendix detailing the evidence that this may actually have happened. It’s to do with the bigger swings to Conservative being in marginals whose names come earlier in the alphabet, as if someone was working their way down a list. I reckon a well-funded operation focused on marginals could easily apply for postal or proxy votes for the recently deceased, whose names could be collected from funeral notices, crematoria and public cemeteries, and possibly from the local registrar’s office. Conspirators could also register in the name of persons who died young at least 18 years previously, whose names can be obtained from public records.
A memory from the days of the 1997 election:
Me: (perusing the electoral register) “35 votes at one address?”
Fellow canvasser “Where? Oh that.. it’s a care home.”
Me: “They all have postal votes.. ”
Fellow canvasser ” Yes, that’s pretty typical.”
Me: “And do they all vote? I mean, like, even the ones with dementia and Alzheimers?”
Fellow canvasser ” Dunno. You’d need to see the marked register to find out but it is too expensive.”
it’s more than just the disabled who have died and are dying because of the Blairites and Tories scum, and I think you’ll find Craig has called them all out. Can’t wait for Corbyn to clear out the trash.
I’ve been censored on here plenty, as I know many have, but usually its because I’m posting off topic as a new thread rather than in reply to someone else which is more lenient. Some things are just meant to be censored though, as you have demonstrated quite well.
endlesscensorship
Glad you got that off your chest.. Peace n Hugs From Scotland to ya.
Two Denison barracks dumplings letting of steam above me, just ignore them.
Freddy = Habbabkuk, of ancient history.
Looks like Someone Above needs to go to Beautifull Music festival in Doune.
Theo Usherwood
“Boris Johnson goes onto describe anything other than a working majority is “pretty appalling”.
He says “it is very hard” to see how Brexit happens if the Tories do not get a working majority on Thursday.”
Johnson has just given a flip to his enemies, encouraging them to go all out to vote tactically against the Tories.
” O Zeus. Fuckti sumus. Nunc vinum bibendum cokum snortendum bimbatos Herculanei fornendum tempus est.”
“The BBC has just written a story about research showing that *88%* of Tory adverts this election are misleading or lies, while none of Labour’s are.
How have they framed it? ‘General election adverts are dishonest.’ “https://t.co/5G68xpJ1wq?amp=1
@ronanburtenshaw
https://mobile.twitter.com/ronanburtenshaw/status/1204434210682998784
well, it would be unusual for them to frame it “Tory Election adverts are dishonest” as it would make the BBC honest, and that can’t happen!
Here in Burnley in Lancashire, which voted 65% for Leave, the campaigning has been minimal. I’ve had 1 Labour Party Leaflet, 2 Brexit Party mail shots, and that’s it. I’ve seen a total of 2 Tory window posters, several Labour garden billboards, and 2 Lib-Dem billboards, one in an empty field.
I’ve had no canvassers calling at my door, although my permanent anti-fracking posters might put some off…..
Pretty dismal effort all round.
I do get all my news from the alternative media (Craig Murray, AAV, Vox Political, Squawbox, The Canary) – the election is so much more fun without a television or BBC radio.
I have little faith in this election. Too many talking heads in silos, shouting into echo chambers. Corbyn is getting rockshow attendances on his tour, but the MSM ensure it doesn’t translate into votes. The alternative media is doing a fantastic job, but their reach seems to be in the tens of thousands rather than the millions it needs to be.
And no party can do maths and physics, even the Greens, when it comes to climate crisis and the collapse of complex systems.
One of my friends is campaigning in a nearby town, for Labour. On the doorstep he encountered a couple where one had been shafted by having PIP cut. And yet, they are adamant they are voting Tory, because “they don’t like Corbyn.” More like they’ve been told by the Sun/Mail not to like Corbyn. Some people seem to think that Corbyn is standing in every constituency. Others are refusing to vote Labour because the candidate there is Asian – simple racism.
Sometimes I think the impending mass extinction will be a good thing.
Lol.
Burnley with its 6353 Labour majority is 45th Tory target among Northern and Midlands English constituencies. Canvassers won’t bother knocking up electors who have definitively decided what they will do on Thursday.
Yes the Earth and the rest of her residents would get on just fine without us!
WHY IS CHANNEL 4.. blocking Dr Philippa from being shown in Scotland… Mnnn..We Know Why..Don’t we..
Bias Dickheads
Habba darling. Welcome back into the bosom of rebellion.
The die is cast. The keys of no 10 waiting on the silver platter for Mr Corbyn. The night sky momentarily illuminated by a shooting star buffering off back to Balliol Bull-ingdon bongo land wherever Tories breed in wintertime.
Hi Craig, I’m in the same constituency as you although I’m originally from DCT which is David Mundell’s current seat. Fingers crossed, not after Thursday. I have had one Tory leaflet through my letterbox which I had great pleasure in throwing in my recycling. I’ll be voting for Joanna too.
Spy reports suggest that some politically very well-connected, Cambridge-educated Tories who work in the City are sh*tting themselves in fear that their party may not win this election.
N_
It’s not just guru worshipping economists that are going to get unstuck. The Patrick Minford school of economics that Thatcherism is the answer and it only failed because it was not pursued hard enough mentality – will never have the humility to criticise it’s own dogma.
The other group that is going to have a wobbly is the Brexiteers whose hatred of foreigners doesn’t solve their problems after Brexit. We might get the US disease of school shootings – in fact we had a schoolboy deliberately run over last week – after the projection onto others of what we don’t like in ourselves fails to solve their problems.
Agreed it is a bit galling that high- ranking academics and highly paid politicians should be allowed, like the chartered phoney Farage, to so horribly mislead so many for so long.
What these city slickers working on the coal face of conning people out of their savings might have suddenly realised is that people who have no savings have no money for them to predate upon.
Tory dogma which says money will trickle down to the poor is confounded by the fact that most people who have money have taken it out of the pound and bought dollars and Euros.
There is a massive hangover after the borrowing binge and QE of the last decade. Neither of the promised binges of public spending from Tory or labour will be possible.
Never borrow on a borrow is my motto. The time will come when the money thr bankers stole will have to be repaid.
The war criminals who colonised Iraq in 2003 and their successors Brown and Cameton will have to be prosecuted so that the truth will emerge. The truth that the only beneficiary of British wars on Muslim countries in the past 30years is Israel.
Israel is untouchable apparently so we will have to satisfy ourselves with locking up those who sold Britain’s power to the Zionists. If I was cameron or Blair, Hoon or Hague, I’d have the jet idling on the tarmac ready for the exit polls.
I woke up this morning and was shocked to hear Nick Arch-tory Robinson giving the health Secretary a kicking over Johnson raising reform of the BBC licence fee 30 minutes after his bungling of the story of the 4 year old sleeping on the hospital floor. This is the only occasion I’ve heard any of those radio 4 mouthpieces offering any critical analysis of the Tory party – motivated more by a fear of losing their meal ticket than any compassion for the vulnerable. Within hours, normal service was resumed – the Labour politician betrayed by his Tory mate …
From Twitter:
Craig Murray
@CraigMurrayOrg
Today on Human Rights Day remember that a vote for the Tories is a vote to leave the European Convention on Human Rights – which is NOT an EU institution and is ratified by every European state except the Belarus dictatorship.
1:03 PM · Dec 10, 2019
https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1204371047384047616
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Craig is right. And making extraditions easier is one of the reasons the Tories want this, according to Theresa May.
As mentioned before, if the UK does not leave the European Convention on Human Rights, then there is some hope — it would be the last resort — for Julian Assange to stop his US extradition on human rights grounds, concerning the federal supermax prison for spies, terrorists, etc. where he is expected to be sent for life. Indeed, some inmates get mad there:
“Since 2007, the European Court of Human Rights has put a stay on the extradition of six men wanted on terrorism charges because of concerns about the treatment that would be in store for them at ADX.”
US ‘supermax’ prison is condemned internationally for its abusive regime — The Guardian — 18 Sep 2012
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/sep/18/us-supermax-prison-international-opprobrium
The European Court of Human Rights was established by the European Convention on Human Rights, which the Tories want to leave.