In not quite one year since the ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Israel has broken the ceasefire 4,600 times. It has killed hundreds of people, including infants, demolished tens of thousands of homes and annexed five areas of Lebanon;it was supposed to withdraw completely.
After a series of attacks throughout the night, the Israelis today at dawn bombed a café in the town of Houla, Lebanon, reducing it to rubble. This is an act of terrorism and further ethnic cleansing. pic.twitter.com/loNvRPhmuI
— courtneybonneauimages (@cbonneauimages) October 8, 2025
This situation is being replicated in detail in Gaza. In particular, the ceasefire in Lebanon is “guaranteed” by the USA and France and overseen by an international committee referred to as “the Mechanism”. The “Mechanism” is chaired by the USA. Accordingly the guarantors have refused to acknowledge a single breach of the ceasefire because the US-controlled “Mechanism” calls them counter-terrorist operations aimed at disarming Hezbollah.
The United Nations defers to “the Mechanism” and thus to the USA, and the presence of UN Peacekeeping troops in Southern Lebanon is therefore useless. Lebanon is now under control of the US/Israeli puppet administration of General Aoun and effectively being run by US Special Envoy Tom Barrack.
Barrack stated that the borders of Israel and Syria are meaningless and that “Israel will go where they want, when they want, and do what they want to protect the Israelis and their border to make sure on October 7th it never happens again”. This is from the “guarantor” of the Lebanese ceasefire agreement.
There can be no doubt that Trump’s US chaired “Board of Peace” for Gaza will take exactly the same line as “the Mechanism” in Lebanon. It is axiomatic that Israel will never honour any agreement. They never have.
BREAKING! “Ceasefire”, in Israel’s dictionary: you cease, I fire.
Just hours after the deal – as in January – Israel shoots at Palestinians waiting to return home.
Before any next step, member states must ensure that Israel honours the ceasefire. https://t.co/ne0YvhrVOj— Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur oPt (@FranceskAlbs) October 9, 2025
What we know from Lebanon is not just that the Israelis will break any agreement, but that the American “guarantors” will support their continued violence as “counter-terrorism”. While the Gaza peacekeeping force may not be UN blue-helmeted, it will also almost certainly have terms of engagement that defer to the US chaired “Board of Peace”.
Back in February I discussed the failure of the Lebanese ceasefire agreement with the UN spokesman in Lebanon, and the primacy of the “Mechanism”. In light of the Gaza agreement negotiations, it is worth revisiting that interview.
Hamas were right to enter the ceasefire negotiations and the prisoner exchange is a good thing. I am not supportive of Hamas’ policy of taking prisoners, other than active service personneal, and I do not believe it has done their cause any good these last two years, particularly as Israel had taken more hostages than they have released in exchanges. The “hostage” narrative, however twister and unfairly, has muddied the waters and hurt the Palestinians. So I shall be pleased to see the end of that phase, and of course welcome the release of Palestinians.
Israel will still hold over 9,000 Palestinian hostages after the releases, and possibly many more.
I will not go through the 20 points of the Agreement, all of which as just headings requiring the substance. But the Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza is of course fundamental, and entirely obscure in its timing and completeness. The “first stage” still leave the Israeli military in over 60% of Gaza. 
Ntanyahu has made plain to the Israeli public that he has no intention of the Israeli military leaving Gaza, or of agreeing a Palestinian state. That this agreement is a phoney is not hidden at all – Israel is not pretending it will honour it.
But if the process gets three things into Gaza – food, journalists and peacekeepers – that will be a major improvement. I do not think you should underestimate the impact on world opinion once journalists can actually get into Gaza, witness the destruction and interview people. There is nobody more cynical than I about the mainstream media, but they are not going to be able to prevent the truth from bleeding into their coverage.
The victory for Palestine will take a few years. Israel is now a pariah state in the eyes of the majority of the inhabitants of this globe, and that will accelerate. Hamas are negotiating from a position of weakness, it is true. We are apparently going to see formal colonialism restored in Gaza for a while. There is more pain to be endured. But the balance is shifting.
I have two quotes for you, one from the West and one from the East.
The mills of God grind slowly, but they grind exceeding small.
They plan, and they plan, but Allah is the best of planners.
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For every Palestinian Israel releases it will kidnap 10 new from the West Bank. Israel will continue looking the other way whenever settlers murder West bank Palestinians.
You may not know but Israeli settlers have already started looking for land in southern Syria and they will build settlements in Lebanon too.
Demilitarised Zone or No man’s land, call it what you like, will never exist between Israel and its neighbours because Israeli settlers will always do as they wish, and the world governments will be happy to look the other way.
The ceasefire is a ruse, as is Trump’s twenty-points plan – the Zionists can’t be trusted period – Hamas are stupid to free the settler hostages – it will make Netanyahu look like a hero instead of the war criminal that he is okay the Zionists will release hundreds of abducted and illegally held without charge Palestinians who have suffered from starvation and torture, however once the settler hostages are released, they’ll just kidnap hundreds more.
Part of the so called deal was the release of Marwan Barghouti a kind of Palestinian Nelson Mandela, the Zionists agreed to release him now they have reneged on that promise.
Trump the sociopathic narcissist – is desperate to get his grubby orange hands on the Nobel Peace Prize tomorrow – so he’ll say and do anything that looks like he’s brokered a peace deal – the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize should be Francesca Albanese – who has done great work in the region.
The only thing I don’t agree with is your calling Hamas “stupid”.
Israel is quite capable of exterminating every last Palestinian, with full American support all the way. That may have been the alternative to making the agreement that they did.
The fact that the American Government and most European Governments are controlled by rabid Zionists is not something that Hamas can do anything about.
It would make sense to elect Marwan Barghouti as the next Palestinian president, although or precisely because he is in Israeli custody. That would build up considerable pressure.
The second Sumud flotilla was kidnapped much further out in international waters, yesterday, and large quantities of aid were lost. I understand that European MEPs were on board and people from many countries. Greta Thunberg was magnificent leading the first siege breaking peace flotilla but we have yet to have confirmation that all on board that flotilla have been released, including Nelson Mandela’s son. I have not seen any updates on how the new detainees are faring either.
Aid has been allowed into the north via Rafah today, from Egypt.
Excellent article. I am not optimistic either (in the short term, at least), as I discussed in these 2 articles:
1. https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/why-is-trump-rushing-for-peace-in?r=25fc37
2. https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/is-trumpanyahus-peace-plan-being?r=25fc37
Well said, Craig.
Generalgouvernment a-go-go.
Kaminski and Dirlewanger live again.
If the killing is halted/slowed it’s a good thing. However, there will never be peace in the ME until Israel, as it currently exists, is utterly destroyed. And, that won’t happen until the USA stops it’s funding.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UN_Palestine_Partition_Versions_1947.jpg
That isn’t the Gaza Strip, this is.
These are the kind of pious hopes best described as “bromides”.
The US Special Envoy Barrack has been trying to gin up a civil war in Lebanon for the past 6 months by leaning on the government and Army to seize Hezbollah’s weapons, to no avail, Army Chief and President Joseph Aoun knows that to try and disarm Hezbollah is a bridge too far. The US/Israel would prefare all its neighbours to have no means to defend themselves, that is why US military aid comes in the form of a couple of crop duster type bi planes and some flintlock rifles that when fired a flag pops out the end with ‘bang’ on it. The Iranians did at one time offer to completely equip the Lebanese army, but other countries political interference probably Israel/US and the Saudis stopped that. It is my opinion that the ‘arc of resistance’ Hezbollah, Iran and Ansa Allah [the Hoothies] have more than enough fire power to attrit the Genocidal state. Most pundits say it is only a matter of time before Iran is attacked, to be honest Israel/US are demanding No enrichment of uranium at all. Iran has the right in International law to enrich uranium to approx 2.75% for peaceful purposes. they are also demanding a limit on their ballistic missile defences, that of course is a non starter, and Iran must abandon its proxies in the region, another non starter. All these outrageous demands are non starters, together with the snap back arrangements brought back by UK, France and Germany to intimidate Iran will also fail since both Russia and China have declared the snap back sanctions illegal, since it was Trump who tore up the JCPOA in his first term. China/Russia are in the process of arming Iran to the teeth with anti air missiles. even jet fighters. Iran is so important to China’s belt and road initiative and supplies almost 90% of its oil. An attack on Iran, from the US point of view could be a twofer against China, but Iran could counter by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, thereby wrecking Western economies, destroying the vital infrastructure of Israel, making it unviable, or even attacking any of the family Monarchies who dare assist an attack on Iran.Remember Trump saved Israel from a severe beating last June, after Netanyahu appealed to Trump to stop the Iranian bombardment. Iran has plenty of unstoppable hyper sonic missiles. In my opinion a attack on Iran would be suicide, but when you are dealing with delusional people who think they are the masters of the Universe, anything can happen, one only has to hear what Trump and Hegseth said to the assembled Admirals and 4 star Generals last week to realize the US are led by psychopaths.