So here’s what happened. A new strain arose that was more infectious; that means that its R number is higher. Because overall infection prevalence was rising a short, weak lockdown was ordered, which reduced the average R – that is, R for all strains together – to about 0.8, so overall infection prevalence fell. But R for the new strain was higher, so it remained above 1, so while the original strain got reduced, the new strain increased. When the “lockdown” ended, the new strain had been given a head start.
Brilliant, eh? Looks like France might have closed its borders to trucks from the UK:
Dover Tap: The Dover Traffic Access Protocol (TAP) scheme on the A20 at Aycliffe has been implemented due to heavy freight volumes. This is to prevent Port bound traffic from disrupting the local road network and the A20 through Dover town. pic.twitter.com/CWoI38Sxgj
— DFDSChnlFreight (@DFDSChnlFreight) December 19, 2020
– “We can’t lock down it’ll destroy the economy!”