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Michael norton, I expect China to cope with Delta because they have the right social restriction policies; take a look at their graph:
No problem for over a year and three months. Everything is open, and ordinary people are free to go about their business. BUT, as soon as even a handful of tests come back positive, they instantly lock down that city, thoroughly test everyone, get everyone infected into quarantine (no swanky “self isolation” in China) – and this enables them to lift those restrictions in under two weeks.
Australia saw how well China’s policy works and adopted it around last August; take a look at their graph:
Barely a problem since September; 44 was highest positive tests on a single day right through until two weeks ago. It’s picked up a bit lately, but I looked into that – essentially the entire increase is in the Australian Territory of New South Wales:
The territories have separate governments, and New South Wales recently changed policy to making social restrictions voluntary.
China is treating vaccines as a secondary line of defence. Immediate, strong lockdowns with travel restrictions and state support for those infected are their primary weapons against the virus – and consequentially, the lockdowns can be local and very short term; people are free and everything is open the vast majority of the time. By stamping out covid as soon as it rears its head, its effect upon economy and population are minimised.
Delta might change that, and I’m keeping an eye on the figures, but I suspect it will work very well. Of course, if a strongly vaccine-resistant strain arises, it’s the only policy that will work.