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A Lancet paper detailing analysis of Pfizer vaccinated people in California is highly suggestive that effectiveness at preventing infection wanes to 47% after 5 months though effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84–96]) up to 6 months.
A potential limitation of the study, however, was a lack of data on adherence to masking guidelines and occupations in the study population, which could have affected frequency of testing and likelihood of exposure to the virus. That’s why I stated highly suggestive.
It might explain the high numbers of infections in UK as one of the consequences of the earlier roll-out would be that more people are at the point where the effectiveness against infection (not hospital admission) has waned. Unlucky for the UK (and other early adopter countries) if that is the case. Might also mean those countries that vaccinated later have an increase in case numbers coming.
A strong case for booster doses (which are being rolled out in UK for some).
* Read the “Declaration of interests” towards the bottom of the paper, it was funded by Pfizer and other pharma companies AND the authors received research support from Pfizer during the conduct of this study that was paid directly to KPSC (a health care provider in USA).
I don’t necessarily think the findings are suspect and are highly likely to be accurate but it is important to see who funded and supported the study especially as it will lead to more sales.