We get so trapped inside the logic of the UK’s crazy electoral systems we often do not see what is really happening. Two thirds of active voters, voted against Starmer’s Labour at the last general election. He was always highly unpopular.
Just as Starmer’s landslide victory in the 2024 general election was based on only 33.7% of votes cast, as Reform fractured the right-wing vote across First Past the Post (FPTP) constituencies, so the SNP in Scotland stand to sweep to victory in tomorrow’s parliamentary elections under the D’Hondt system on an extremely similar percentage.
The D’Hondt system is modified FPTP. It consists of two parts. One part is simple, unadulterated FPTP. You elect a member of the Scottish parliament in a constituency, exactly as in a standard UK parliamentary election.
Then there is a second part. Constituencies are grouped into regions. You then have a second ballot paper to elect regional MSPs. On the second paper, you vote not for a person but for a party. As in the constituency vote, the regional vote is a simple X. The constituency MSPs won by a particular party in a region are discounted, and then the regional MSPs are divided between the parties on a basis broadly proportionate to that vote.
So if a party wins all or most of the constituency MSPs in the region, it is unlikely to get any regional candidates, unless it is polling at over 50%.
This is exactly what happened to the SNP in the 2021 Holyrood elections. It swept the constituencies, so 1.1 million regional list votes brought it only two regional list seats. By comparison, minority parties were able to pick up individual regional list seats with as few as 17,000 votes in a region.
This is definitely going to happen again. The SNP is only polling at 33% but will sweep almost all the constituencies, because the Tories, Reform and Labour are each polling between 16 and 20%. The parliament has 73 constituency seats and 56 regional seats.
But Tories, Reform and Labour could each pick up hatfuls of regional list seats because the SNP regional list votes will be discounted by the constituency seats they have won.
The D’Hondt system can be gamed, very easily. If SNP voters were all to cast their regional list seats for a different pro-Independence party, the unionist parties could be virtually eliminated from the Scottish parliament.
There is an argument this is “cheating”. Well it isn’t, because it is within the rules. The UK has rotten electoral systems. That usually assists us to get terrible governments, like the Starmer regime. If we can play the system to some good for once – and we can, perfectly legally – let us do so.
Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to persuade SNP voters to do this. They are very loyal to their party. The tragedy of this is that they view casting “both votes SNP” as a declaration of support for Scottish Independence.
Why this is tragedy is that the SNP’s careerist leadership has only a performative commitment to Independence. They know it is Independence support that gets them elected, so they remember it around elections. Their policy is to ask London for permission to hold another Independence referendum, through what is called a Section 30 process.
The problem is that everybody knows that Starmer, and all the other UK parties, will refuse a Scottish referendum. When that happens, the SNP’s John Swinney and his clique will huff and puff a little, then go back to enjoying their “ministerial” limousines and salaries, and forget Independence until the next election in 2031.
This has been happening for over a decade. The tragedy is the SNP voters who still remain do not see an alternative.
As I said, we get so trapped by these electoral systems that we do not notice what is really happening in politics. What is really happening in Scotland – the biggest single voter movement in decades – is the disconnection between Independence support and SNP support.
Independence support is, across the large majority of opinion polls in the last year, steady around 52%, with polls falling within the margin of error of that figure.
By contrast SNP support is only around 34%, with polls falling within the margin of error of that figure.
There is a profound, long-term gap of 18% between Independence support and SNP support.
Over one third of Independence supporters do not vote SNP.
Where is that Independence support going?
Well, it is with other political parties. Most significantly with Labour, with over 25% of Labour voters regularly showing in polls as supporting Independence. The figure for Reform appears to be at least as high. There is also Independence support for the Green Party, which is significant in D’Hondt.
But unfortunately a great many of the third of Independence supporters who do not vote SNP have given up. They won’t vote at all in the elections. They will just sit on their hands.
The significant tactical voting under D’Hondt is from SNP to Scottish Green. The fifth or so of SNP voters who have worked out that their regional vote is wasted if they cast it for the SNP, mainly intend to vote Scottish Green on the regional list. Indeed, this is the only thing that puts the Scottish Greens into Holyrood.
SNP voters tend to do this because the Scottish Greens have been in coalition with the SNP. But I believe this to be mistaken.
The Scottish Greens are only very lightly committed to Independence. It is point 27 in their 38 point manifesto – and their Scottish Deputy Leader has already stated that the moratorium on hydrocarbon projects is more important to them than Independence in forming a government. They have not ruled out joining a unionist coalition.
I have much time for the Greens in England. The Scottish Greens are an entirely separate party and frankly (remember all politics is personal) are dominated by some extremely weird and unpleasant people who should be nowhere near political power.
Scottish politics desperately need shaking up. That is why I am standing as a candidate for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland, an eight-week-old political party which has one single policy: Scottish Independence. We do not accept a London veto and believe the Scottish people should act immediately on their right of self-determination.
You cannot believe both that Scots are a people with the right of self-determination under the UN charter, and that London should have a veto. The UK Establishment will never voluntarily give up Scotland’s magnificent resources. If we want Independence, we must take it.
That is why I urge people to vote to put real radical firebrands into the Scottish parliament, like myself, Tommy Sheridan, Eva Comrie and many others. You can vote for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland in many constituencies, and on all regional lists.
Now, unfortunately I suffered heart problems and was hospitalised at the start of this election, and was unable to campaign. Had I been well, even a result equivalent to my 2005 Blackburn General Election vote (5%) would have probably seen me elected on the regional list and my 2024 vote (18%) would have seen me not just elected but bringing in at least one other regional MSP with me.
But illness means there has been not one speech, not one hustings, not one interview, not one door knocked, not one leaflet delivered beyond the single Election Communication.
But I have not pulled out because I think it is essential to give people the chance to vote for Scottish Independence if they wish to do so – and genuinely vote for somebody who actually intends to do something about it.
I hope you cherish every vote you give to the Alliance to Liberate Scotland as much as we will cherish your trust. Just do the honest thing with your vote.
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Am listening to Starmer’s speech. He has no idea how most people live or think. His speech is akin to a lot of soundbites stirred in a big pot. He wants to be judged on how he has “stabilised” the economy and also how he wants a “complete break” from the “status quo”. He keeps repeating the term “status quo”. For most people, that’s an old-time musical group.
“When you come from a working class background like me.” “I’m on the side of working people just like my sister.” Yeah right. This faking fool is finished.
Unite for Palestine
Unite for Gaza
Unite for Justice
Unite for UNRWA.
Resist for Palestine
Resist for Gaza
Resist for Justice
Resist for UNRWA
Protest for Palestine
Protest for Gaza
Protest for Justice
Protest for UNRWA
Respect for Palestine
Respect for Gaza
Respect for Justice
Respect for UNRWA
Dissent for Palestine
Dissent for Gaza
Dissent for Justice
Dissent for UNRWA
I wish the UN would hurry up and declare Scotland a NSGT – I know all the documentation has been examined and we are just waiting for the okay, but another five years of the colonial admin at Holyrood doesn’t bare thinking about – add in ALL the other London branch office parties at Holyrood (Fifth Column parties) whose remit is to keep the status quo intact so London can continue to rob Scotland blind, (Professor Alf Baird says that the amount stolen from Scotland is £200 billion + yearly) and keep its on-loan nukes on the West coast of Scotland.
There are now over one million English settlers in Scotland, and god only knows how many other nationalities in Scotland, all granted access to Scotland via a foreign countries Home Office – with that amount of settlers in Scotland – and lets not forget they are getting to vote on all matters even constitutional ones – any form of indyref that a foreign country’s parliament (England) granted the colonial admin in Scotland would be farcical to say the least, big big changes are required in Scotland – destroying colonialism in Scotland is the major one, decolonising many Scottish minds will take a bit longer.
“I wish the UN would hurry up and declare Scotland a NSGT”
According to Google AI, the UN’s C-24 Substantive Session (June 2026) is the primary annual meeting where the committee reviews its list of NSGTs. If Scotland is not on the official agenda by early June, it indicates that the petition has been rebuffed. So we should know within a month or so.
But I wouldn’t hold your breath, because of the UK’s influence as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the precedent it would set for other countries e.g. Catalonia in Spain, and last but not least the Scottish referendum of 2014.
MJ
On Catalonia – its never been a independent/sovereign nation, ergo it doesn’t fall into the same category as Scotland – as for England being on the UN Security Council, a China based UN affiliated group helped Scots present their case – Guterres has already read the documentation – documentation has been put forward as well to the UN’s C-24 on the overall handling of the dubious 2014 indyref.
Its nice to have a powerful ally like China in your corner.
https://www.decolonise.scot/the-united-nations-has-received-the-evidence-scotland-is-a-colony-and-the-world-now-knows-it-on-report-un-human-rights-council-a-hrc-61-ngo-210/
I feel left wing policies can be popular with UK politics.
I think if Labour choose Alistair Carns as their next leader they might be a threat to the right.
Carns is a decorated soldier, Defence Minister, MP, climber of Mt Everest, and has been a Royal Marine Commando.
He has risked his life for the UK.
And he would be a strategic and patriotic strategy in these times of war.
Former Colonel Al Carns has all the signs of being placed inside the Labour Party as were Blair and Starmer before him. I don’t doubt Carns would be a more effective placement than former Major Eric Joyce who spent the latter part of his political career being arrested for drunken brawling. However Carns’ enthusiasm for war with Russia is unmistakable in this interview.
https://youtu.be/1EQmShm3x4I
I would like to know more of his back story. Carns is a well spoken chap with little hint of an Aberdeen accent, despite his claim to have lived ‘on the edge of a housing scheme’ which has something of the ‘toolmaker’ about it. His commitment to politics seems to have been very recent and his acceleration into government office unusually swift.
I suppose there are exceptions – certainly Smedley Butler or perhaps President Eisenhower – but when an ex-military man is touted to be a party leader In Westminster it always rings alarm bells to me. There is the suspicion of a Manchurian Candidate type, but even if not, I can’t help worrying about too many lingering loyalties to the military top brass or commitment to war itself, or else simply a man or woman too used to taking orders to be able to think for themselves. Still, I wasn’t aware about Cairns, and I am interested in his career.
On the general situation, I didn’t even vote Labour at the last general election, and was never a Starmer supporter, but there is something very sinister about the attempted take-down by the media and their backers of Starmer, and just in time for the big Brexit anniversary too. Look at the Guardian’s columnists, who were virtually hailing him as the Second Coming two years ago, now scrabbling to unseat Starmer, just like the right-wing newspapers they always claim to despise.
There are exceptions, but judging by his interview Al Carns is not one of them. He is not acknowledging himself as paid muscle for Threadneedle Sreet nor warning against the dangers of ‘military keynesianism.’ Far from apologetic, he is extremely proud of his operations inside Iraq and Afghanistan which he clearly believes to have furthered the cause of freedom. He admires Clement Atlee on the basis of his fighting in WW1 and Blair/Brown who oversaw the conflicts I previously referred to. He sees the quasi-fascist Ukrainian military regime as an example to be followed.
I can’t see anything ‘sinister’ in Starmer’s fall from power. He has achieved a great deal inside two years and will be rewarded to the end of his life by those who helped place him in the highest office. Eternal war with Russia, unqualified support for Israel- these will take some flushing out of the UK political system. Criminalisation of dissent and the lowering of expectation for the working class are valuable gifts he has bequeathed to the powerful on the home front. All that comes at a price and he is now having to pay it politically as the neo imperialist hyenas decide who is best placed to continue his works.
As promised, here’s my English local elections round-up. It’s a bit late, but then so, after several recounts, was the final result in Birmingham’s Glebe Farm & Tile Cross ward, which curiously enough, as well as being a win for Reform, also elected a candidate from Galloway’s Workers Party, and saw former Brum Council leader John Cotton lose his seat.
In this election most of the big urban conurbations (if that’s not a tautology) in England were in play: London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, Tyne & Wear and West Yorkshire, as well as parts of Merseyside & South Yorkshire. The big winners were Reform UK who gained almost 1500 seats, as well as overall control of 14 councils to add to the ten that they got last year. Particular highlights for Reform came in Sunderland, South Tyneside, Wakefield, and in Thurrock, where it obtained 90% of the seats. The Greens also did well under new leader Zack Polanski, gaining over 400 seats and control of five councils (Norwich, Hackney, Waltham Forest, Lewisham & Hastings) to add to the one they already control in Mid-Suffolk.
On the flip side, Labour performed very poorly, though not as badly as some were expecting, losing almost 1500 seats and lost 38 councils, suffering near wipe-outs in both Newcastles (upon-Tyne & under-Lyme), Wakefield, South Tyneside, Thurrock, and in Tower Hamlets where the colourful Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire party gained overall control. Labour would have suffered more council losses had there been fewer councils where only a third of seats were up for re-election like those in Greater Manchester.
The Tories also did badly losing over 500 seats and six councils, but have largely escaped media scrutiny due to the focus being on Starmer. I think it’s worth mentioning though that they got a lower share of the vote (3.4%) in both Gateshead & South Tyneside than they did in Liverpool & Red Knowsley in 2012 (the worst days of austerity), despite standing in less than half of the wards in the latter. The Lib Dems gained over a hundred seats and control of two councils (Stockport & Portsmouth), but lost Kingston-upon-Hull which, as a result, will henceforth be referred to as just Hull.
The far right was represented by a handful of candidates each for Advance UK, UKIP, the National Housing Party UK, the British Democrats, and a single candidate for Alek Yerbury’s new National Rebirth Party. Vote shares were typically in the 1-3% range. Advance UK concentrated their efforts in Trafford in Greater Manchester & Walsall, where they achieved over 8% of the vote in two seats. Surprisingly, the National Housing Party focused on London, specifically Camden (where they’d previously only received 1 [ONE!] vote in a by-election in Hampstead around four years ago), with their best result being an impressive 6.6% in the Holborn & Covent Garden ward. In contrast, the National Rebirth Party couldn’t even manage 1% in one ward in Hull. Despite elections taking place in Salford, it was another no show from Britain First. The Homeland party were also only notable by their absence.
Rupert Lowe’s new Restore Britain party is considered by many to be far-right – though the jury’s still out with me. It didn’t field any candidates in these elections, claiming that it didn’t have time to properly vet them. However, its localist sister party, Great Yarmouth First, did put forward nine for Norfolk County Council (along with another in a by-election for Great Yarmouth council), with all of them winning comfortably, beating Reform into second place. (I hope to write more on here about Restore Britain at a later date).
On the left, the TUSC put up a decent slate of nearly 300 candidates but, as ever, got nowhere, with its stalwart leader Dave Nellist getting less than 7% of the vote in St Michaels ward in Coventry. The Workers Party fielded 70 candidates, winning two more seats in Rochdale, retaining one in Calderdale and, as mentioned above, gaining one in Birmingham. Your Party could only manage to put forward twenty (fewer than the number of people on their executive committee). It didn’t secure any seats but came close in Birmingham’s Small Heath ward. It did, however, lose more than half of the seats it had earlier obtained via defections, notably in Walsall & Hastings where it didn’t even bother to field candidates. If you ask me, it really is a skip-fire, but probably won’t collapse for a while as there’s still bags of cash from membership fees floating around. Our host would still be well advised to get shot of them and get over his bizarre animus towards the Scottish Greens.
That’s all folks. Thanks for reading, if you got this far. It’ll be the Scottish (and Welsh) local elections next time round.