A poll by Survation shows Labour beating Reform 43-40 but Reform beating Labour 45-34 in how Makerfield residents would vote if it was just parties they were voting for.

https://www.survation.com/makerfield-by-election-poll/

According to the same poll, there’s also a GIGANTIC imbalance between male and female voters, larger than I’ve ever seen anywhere. They are saying women favour Labour over Reform 53-32 and men favour Reform over Labour 48-33. If this is true, then Hair Gel Andy in his t-shirts is reliant on being seen as a heartthrob by women voters.

Since men control more of the transport to polling stations than women do, I suspect this may not actually manifest in the polling booths.

Elon Musk is ramping Restore Britain. How that will play out is unclear. A comparator might be Eric Zemmour but the electoral systems in Britain and France are different, and things can change fast. Especially if you own X.

Burnham could at some point be deployable as an English regionalist which might affect Scotland if some kinda body is created where Scotland, Wales, and a number of English regions all have their say. This has clearly been in the minds of the rulers for a few decades, as a way to deal with the fact that they want to keep Scotland and Wales quiet but they don’t want an English parliament. But the option has been put on the back burner because most English people think it’s a load of cack. It’s possible that could change. Tell people any old crap on the internet nowadays and they’ll believe it, e.g. “King of the North”.

Personally I think the entity that is Andy Burnham works best for the rulers as mayor of Manchester than as prime minister.

So my prediction is that Reform will win the Makerfield by-election next week and that Burnham will be re-elected as Manchester mayor in 2028. So yes I am tipping Reform who are currently at 4.4 at Betfair, where Burnham is the strong favourite.