Ghana Elections Halfway Projection: Narrowest of Wins For John Atta Mills and the NDC 7


Having now calculated the exact swings between the parties in 115 of the 230 constituencies, and applying the average swing across those constituencies which have not declared, we now project a win for John Atta Mills and the NDC by 14,000 votes, or by 50.08 to 49.92%.

It remains a fact that our projections have been remarkably consistent; and that the methodology proved extremely accurate in predicting the results of the first round. But again it must be stated that this is so close that it could yet go either way.

I am making a projection based on sound psephological principles and a methodology used worldwide to project election results. The calculation is then purely mathematical. This is an exercise in prediction largely for fun, but it also has a use in that, if the methodology throws up any anomalies, they could represent fraud. In fact in general the consistency of results within regions in terms of swing trend tends to support the idea that these are fair and genuine elections.


7 thoughts on “Ghana Elections Halfway Projection: Narrowest of Wins For John Atta Mills and the NDC

  • merkinonparis

    I am desperate soooooo to comment.

    Unfortunately, it would be self-referential using information from 'Twister and Busted with Purple Nick-Nacks'

    Agony Aunt, what should i do?

  • Edward Horgan

    Hello Craig,

    I await the final results of the election run-off with interest. I attended the first round as a observer. These elections were certainly far more free and fair that any you may have seen in Uzbekistan!

    Best regards

    Edward

  • Bright Vadze

    Prof Mills have clearly won the elections as projected my a local radio station Joy Fm 99.7mhz I am calling on the Electoral Commisioner Afari Gyan to do his best to ensure that the is peace since his verdict is final. he sholud not be influenced by the government of the day

  • DANIEL K.M ABUGRI

    GHANAIANS SHOULD BE BOLD FAITHFUL TO THIS ELECTION AND GIVE IT TO WHOEVER WINS.LET NO ONE COMMENT ON THE WINNER BECAUSE THE PERSON IS A CHOSEN FROM GOD.MAY GOD BLESS GHANA.==DANIEL KWAME ABUGRI [JOHANNESBURG= SOUTH AFRICA].

Comments are closed.