Losing in Libya 62


Gaddafi now controls 20% more territory than he did before we started this odious bombing campaign. He has been able to hold more and better attended rallies of more genuine supporters in recent days than he ever could before we started bombing. Exactly as I predicted, the effect of NATO bombing has been to rally nationalist support around Gaddafi, whom we have stupidly put in a much stronger position than he was when he only faced genuine internal rebellion.

The French and British have now backed down, and both have agreed that Gaddafi will be able to remain in Libya as part of any transition deal. That amounts to an acceptance that he will be the power behind the throne. The problem is, of course, that it is Gaddafi who is growing stronger and NATO which is growing weaker, with political will to keep killing crumbling as surely as NATO economies and currencies.

Hague and Cameron have moved, from abject weakness, to a position of allowing Gaddafi to remain in Libya, which they adamantly rejected three months ago. Then, there was some hope Gaddafi might have accepted it. Now, he has no need to accept a face-saving deal for NATO. He can just sit and watch them dwindle.

It is, moreover, a facesaving proposal that mocks the International Criminal Court, revealing it starkly as a tool to be brought out and used against the enemies of the western alliance, but simply shoved back in its box if they change their minds.

Obama made a shrewd political move to distract from the abject failure of the Afghan occupation to achieve any of its stated goals, by assassinating Osama Bin Laden. Expect now a similar ploy in Libya, with attempts to assassinate Gadaffi by bombing – and possibly by other means – being radically stepped up in an attempt to rescue some “victory” from this humiliation.


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62 thoughts on “Losing in Libya

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  • Sonia

    Ruth say something very strange: “they want employment, a share of the country’s wealth”- if so, how does she explain the fact that there were nearly a million migrant workers in Libya from all over the world, including oddly enough, Bangladesh, India, Philippines and even Turkey- I remember seeing pictures of these migrants in tents and also remember the chaotic scenes at Libya’s borders with Egypt and Tunisia? Most of these migrants were doing menial jobs! So either Libyans are themselves too lazy (which seems unlikely) or there is something we are simply not being told

  • Scouse Billy

    “What a skilled bunch of rebels — they can fight a war during the day and draw up a new central bank and a new national oil company at night without any outside help whatsoever. If only the rest of us were so versatile! … Apparently someone felt that it was very important to get pesky matters such as control of the banks and control of the money supply out of the way even before a new government is formed,”

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24308

  • Ruth

    ‘Ruth, are you saying that the people of Benghazi have not shared significantly in the benefits of the economic transformation of Libya from the poorest country in Africa to the richest, that has occurred under Gaddafi?’

    Absolutely. I believe the statistics give a very false impression. In reality people in powerful positions embezzle money for their benefit receiving a thousand times more than the average government employee who takes home about a 100 pounds a month.

    Pensioners get 50 pounds a month. Many have had their income producing properties confiscated. There’s no unemployment benefit for men. Non government workers don’t have any benefits.

    Here’s an article which describes the reality

    ‘Libyans hope revolt will lift them out of poverty

    40 percent of Libyans live below poverty line, seeing no benefit from Libya’s vast oil reserves.’
    http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=45803

    Also, the income of Libya is most probably double that of the official statistics as a lot of it is sold under the counter.

  • Ghe

    Ruth, not really. They don’t want to work, they are used with others doing their work for them for very low pay. See them others trying to escape after the conflict started.

    They are just manipulated. Stupid people, fighting with their own.

  • DonnYDarkO

    from day one when all of these rebel flags appeared in such massive numbers along with the stencilled flags on buildings everywhere plus the establishment of a central bank…. It just all smelled so USA. This is the Hollywood version. The Romanian uprising and the Egyptian uprising showed what spontaneity looks like.. Not thousands of same size flags and slogans suddenly appearing in Benghazi.
    The “Mad Max ” mobiles that were constructed for the rebels who did not know one side of a gun from another !!Did you see the missile pods from aircraft welded onto pick-ups… Hollywood !!!
    What I cant figure out is why they decide to depose Mad Dog when he’d given the West everything they wanted.
    I also cannot figure out why NATO destroys infrastructure necessary for life, like water treatment, food stores,schools and universities.
    And BTW , WTF happened to Moussa Koussa ?? We let him out of jail and restored all of his ill gotten gains, and ne’er a word was ever mentioned again about his involvement in assassinations, torture , murders etc etc.. Our Govt gave him a pat and a nod and his free bus pass.
    I think we’ve got Bill n Ben the flowerpot men running the Govt.

  • Ruth

    I think there’s little doubt the revolution was triggered by the French with the full backing of the US. But the fact is the east of Libya was at boiling point.

  • Alf

    I’m afraid I don’t agree with you at all, on this matter, Craig.

    The Gaddafi monster is a largely a TeeVee™ projection to facilitate aggressive UK and US foreign policies. Particularly, the whole Lockerbie affair is a farcical frame up which anybody taking the time to look into can plainly see.

    One of the true reasons Gaddafi is a threat to the west is that Libya does not dance to the debt like just about every other nation on earth. Take a look at this table of nations in order of debt as a percentage of GDP:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

    There, at number 128, last on the list with an IMF debt which is 0% of GDP and therefore not subject to the conditions set by IMF/World Bank loan sharks, is Libya.

    Another reason is that whilst we in the ‘west’ are subjected to crippling taxes to prop up state corruption, illegal wars and collapsed banks, Libya shares the profits of its oil industry with its people. Bountifully. The Great Manmade River is an engineering wonder for which Gaddafi was mocked – the biggest irrigation project in the world. NATO has to destroy it because it represents success outwith the economic model which has been used to create a world of debt slaves.

    Also, there is much talk of $42bn in frozen assets siphoned off by Gaddafi. To what end, exactly, does a man who lives in a tent siphon off $42bn? The more likely explanation is that Gaddafi was creating an investment bank to provide African nations with interest free development loans – thus freeing them from IMF/World Bank servitude. It has long been his plan to unite Africa. What! No more cheap food from a continent where half the population is on the brink of starvation?

    Most recently, he announced that it was his intention to stop trading oil in US Dollars and start trading in gold. To countries addicted to fiat money this would represent a major threat. Not only can gold be printed and manipulated to control the economy, it has been sold off en masse in recent years – US and UK gold stocks especially.

    Finally, Craig, I’d like to make a comparison between the million strong rally in support of Gaddafi at the end of June and the million strong march to oppose the war in/on Iraq in London on 15th February 2003.

    Tripoli, June 2011. One million people of a population of 6.5 million, land area 1,759,541 sq km with no motorway system or railway, whilst under attack.

    London, February 15th 2003. One million from a population of 60 million, land area 243,610 sq km with 3,497 km motorways and 16,116 km rail track.

    A country seven times the geographical size, just over a tenth of the population with hardly any transport infrastructure has the same number of people turning up to support the government as the UK managed to mobilise to oppose the war in Iraq. A million people who are supposedly violently oppressed?

    As our allies irritatingly say, ‘do the math’.

  • evgueni

    The end does not justify the means. Russians learned this lesson, Brits haven’t had the misfortune and so many harp on about ‘humanitarian interventions’ being morally justified.

  • mary

    Several years hence, for Iraq read Libya.
    .
    Iraqi quisling FM states that Iraq ‘needs US help’ beyond 2011
    .
    ‘Iraq’s foreign minister said Wednesday that his country needs U.S. help to train its military past the end of 2011, hinting at a possible deal with the United States.
    .
    All American forces are scheduled to leave Iraq by the end of this year, in line with a 2008 security deal agreed to by Baghdad and Washington. But privately many Iraqi and American officials say Iraq’s nascent military will still need American military assistance.
    Zebari and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appear to be preparing the public for some type of American military presence in Iraq past 2011, but have been trying to paint it as a training force as opposed to combat units.’

    http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110727/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq

  • mary

    Good analysis Alf.
    .
    I thought that the Queen had died or somebody else important, by the way in which the BBC were announcing a death. Solemn tones and the breaking news banner. One of their reporters, a local who was their stringer, has been killed with 16 others (now revised to 22) in a triple suicide bombing in Afhanistan.
    .
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14325486
    .
    This is a review of an exhibition of one man’s photos being held at the Beaconsfield Gallery in London until 5th August, Gaming in Warziristan.
    {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/17/us-drone-strikes-pakistan-waziristan}
    .
    For the past three years, Noor Behram has hurried to the site of drone strikes in his native Waziristan. His purpose: to photograph and document the impact of missiles controlled by a joystick thousands of miles away, on US air force bases in Nevada and elsewhere.
    /…..

  • epyon

    some of the stuff here about gaddafi being some kind of progressive force or nationalist hero or something is just preposterous.
    he was in his last iteration a neo-liberal and trusted enough friend of the west for them to bail him out
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/why-is-the-fed-bailing-out-qaddafi-20110401.

    Maybe you want to look up the abu salem prison massacre or prison dungeons n the street or the level of poverty or the treatment of African immigrants. Its no wonder there have been rebellions virtually one every 15 years
    its obviously a kind of gangster kleptocracy which runs partly of terror and partly on the ability to distribute patronage to this or that group, whether the new government is any better remains to be seen (I don’t hold out much hope but there is more hope that popular forces will overcome mahmoud jibril and co. than Ghadaffi).

    I know that we (our governments) are venal scumbags but it doesn’t follow that the regiemes are saints or even good.
    in this link vijay prshad gives his assessment (in April) of Libya which I think is still relevant.
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/why-is-the-fed-bailing-out-qaddafi-20110401

    it’s a much more complicated situation than “Ghadaffi is awesome” and the “rebels are scumbags”

  • mary

    Libya – a war policy in chaos
    28 July 2011 Chris Nineham Stop the War Coalition
    .
    Any moves towards a diplomatic solution in Libya would be welcome, but one thing is for sure, for them to have any chance of success the NATO bombardment will have to end.|
    .
    The real motives of UK foreign secretary William Hague, as revealed in this cartoon by Steve Bell.
    .
    The Western powers’ Libya strategy appears to be in complete confusion. Senior French and Italian officials have recently been arguing very publicly that the military option is not working and that only a diplomatic solution has any hope of success. But on Tuesday, NATO’s spokesperson Carmen Romero said that airstrikes will continue until Gadaffi gives up. “Gadaffi”, she said, “Cannot wait us out”.
    .
    http://www.stopwar.org.uk/index.php/middle-east-north-africa/662-libya-a-war-policy-in-chaos

  • epyon

    some of the stuff here about gaddafi being some kind of progressive force or nationalist hero or something is just preposterous.
    he was in his last iteration a neo-liberal and trusted enough friend of the west for them to bail him out
    Maybe you want to look up the abu salem prison massacre or prison dungeons n the street or the level of poverty or the treatment of African immigrants. Its no wonder there have been rebellions virtually one every 15 years
    its obviously a kind of gangster kleptocracy which runs partly of terror and partly on the ability to distribute patronage to this or that group, whether the new government is any better remains to be seen (I don’t hold out much hope but there is more hope that popular forces will overcome mahmoud jibril and co. than Ghadaffi).

    I know that we (our governments) are venal scumbags but it doesn’t follow that the regiemes are saints or even good.
    in this link vijay prshad gives his assessment (in April) of Libya which I think is still relevant.
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/why-is-the-fed-bailing-out-qaddafi-20110401

    it’s a much more complicated situation than “Ghadaffi is awesome” and the “rebels are scumbags”

  • Levantine

    Ruth, I have never before encountered someone with a view like yours, which is something like finding a rare gem, or a new species. Now, to the arguments:
    .
    You said: “Here’s an article which describes the reality”
    And quoted: ‘Libyans hope revolt will lift them out of poverty’ ‘40 percent of Libyans live below poverty line, seeing no benefit from Libya’s vast oil reserves.’
    http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=45803
    .
    Google the sentence “About one-third of Libyans live at or below the national poverty line.” – you’ll find it is cited everywhere. Compare it with the claim you cite. Apparently, the article deliberately distorts the official version in order to portray things worse than they are.
    .
    You said: “I believe the statistics give a very false impression. In reality people in powerful positions embezzle money for their benefit receiving a thousand times more than the average government employee who takes home about a 100 pounds a month.”
    .
    Yes, but it is those corrupt officials who came to lead the Benghazi rebellion. At least that’s what Libyans say:
    1) http://peoplewithvoices.com/2011/06/08/nato-propaganda-vs-the-truth-on-libya/
    2) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/bombed-building-had-files-on-libyan-rebels/story-e6frg6so-1226057799883
    3) http://libyanqa.wordpress.com/2011/05/22/complete-diana-interview/
    4) I think it’s also mentioned in this film here – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7A9jMnKf7w
    .
    I have no doubt that Benghazi is somewhat underprivileged because of the old bad relations between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. But I don’t see that the inequality has been so severe to be the only reason for a “boiling point”.
    .
    When I looked at the google pictures of Benghazi back in February and March, I didn’t notice that Benghazi looks any worse than Tripoli. The rebel’s Toyotas used in the military operations, where did they come from? And Libyan (Tripoli) Govt spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said his sister lives in Benghazi with her numerous family. If Benghazi is severely underprivileged, she must have been in an elite and well-protected part of the city?! (What is happening to them now?!)

  • Scouse Billy

    First legal action against NATO over Libyan bombings:

    “Attorneys have filed a civil lawsuit in Belgium accusing NATO of killing 13 civilians, including 3 children, by bombing a residential compound of a former government official in Libya.

    Marcel Ceccaldi, a Paris-based lawyer, said Thursday he also has asked the Brussels District Court to send two experts to Libya to assess physical and psychological damage from the attack near Tripoli in June so that he can determine what monetary compensation to seek from NATO.”

    http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20110728/API/1107280773

  • Courtenay Barnett

    WITH DUE REGARD FOR ALL THE HYPOCRISY, THE DULLICY, THE AMORAL WARS AND VIOLENCE ALL OVER THE WORLD …I ADDRESS YOU….

    IF I WER E TO ADDRESS THE UN
    Secretary General, leaders of the world, dignitaries, and all those present.
    This August body was formed after the scourges of two World Wars. There was a fledgling attempt to establish a similar body in the League of Nations. The horrors of a second World War gave birth to what the world sought to bring to fruition, even if by a different name.
    The preamble to the UN Charter states its noble ideals:-
    “PREAMBLE
    WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED
    • to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind, and
    • to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and
    • to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and
    • to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,
    AND FOR THESE ENDS
    • to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours, and
    • to unite our strength to maintain international peace and security, and
    • to ensure, by the acceptance of principles and the institution of methods, that armed force shall not be used, save in the common interest, and
    • to employ international machinery for the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples,
    HAVE RESOLVED TO COMBINE OUR EFFORTS TO ACCOMPLISH THESE AIMS
    Accordingly, our respective Governments, through representatives assembled in the city of San Francisco, who have exhibited their full powers found to be in good and due form, have agreed to the present Charter of the United Nations and do hereby establish an international organization to be known as the United Nations.”
    Sadly, having examined the history of post World War 11 wars, the predominant sources from whence these wars came, the machinations, the duplicity of words that have falsely attempted to justify such wars, echo from this chamber where I speak and leads me not to an intellectual analysis as to the whys and wherefores of the commencement of all those wars, but to a safer, saner, spiritually more safe retreat, and I find that inspiration not by reference to the great holders of power before me, but within my cultural enclave of Jamaica where I was born.
    Mr. selector – that Jimmy Cliff tune please. Play Mr. Music …please play…and world leaders please listen:-

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UJqHg5sBGg
    One love – peace!

    CB (www.globaljusticeonline.com)
    P.S. Methinks this one might even top Hugo Chavez.

  • craig Post author

    Craig

    Generally I am with Epyon, though I am pretty sure Libya had nothing to do with Lockerbie.

  • Levantine

    Fine, but if only you could say why does your never stated evidence trumps other posters’ evidence. Or if you have an ingenious argument.
    .
    From Epyon’s post:
    .
    “he was in his last iteration a neo-liberal and trusted enough friend of the west for them to bail him out”
    .
    What made him a neoliberal? Bail him out from what?
    .
    “Maybe you want to look up the abu salem prison massacre”
    .
    What’s got to do with Gaddafi? If he premeditated their physical elimination, he could have chosen a less spectacular way to do it.
    .
    ” or the level of poverty ”
    .
    never reported by any eyewitness
    .
    “or the treatment of African immigrants.”
    .
    Mistreated by Libyan authorities? Can you cite some source for that?
    .
    “Its no wonder there have been rebellions virtually one every 15 years”
    .
    By impoverished civilians and African immigrants?!
    .
    “there is more hope that popular forces will overcome mahmoud jibril and co. than Ghadaffi).”
    .
    Jibril who reportedly never shakes hands with females, and whose forces Libyans call “rats”?
    .
    “in this link vijay prshad gives his assessment (in April) of Libya which I think is still relevant.”
    .
    He doesn’t give an assessment of Libya but of US Fed practices.

  • mary

    The rebel rabble are efficient at knocking off someone they have fallen out with or suspect.
    .
    Libyan rebel commander Abdel Fattah Younes killed
    ,
    Gen Abdel Fattah Younes was an ally of Col Gaddafi for many years
    .
    The military commander of the Libyan rebels fighting to topple Col Muammar Gaddafi has been killed, the rebel National Transitional Council says
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14336122
    .
    The state broadcaster’s spin from James Reynolds, son of Paul Reynolds also BBC.
    .
    There are a lot of questions about exactly what happened on Thursday and what the sequence of events was. We’re told that Gen Younes had been due to appear before a panel of rebel judges to answer a number of questions on a military matter. We’re not entirely sure what that was.

    In a conflict like this where there are not many facts and one side of the country is fighting another, we tend to get an awful lot of rumours and suggestions.

    For what it’s worth, some of the ones we’re hearing is that there was a worry among the rebels that the military campaign was not going very well. They wanted to question the general.

    Some of the speculation we’re hearing in Tripoli, coming from Col Gaddafi’s side, is that the general was simply not trusted by the rebels.

  • epyon

    hello leviantine
    I’m not pretending to have some kind of gospel truth, everything I said was just my opinion.
    I will try to answer your points.
    but first here is the link to the Vijay Prashad talk that I clumsily cut out before
    http://www.againstthegrain.org/program/429/id/152250/mon-4-18-11-prashad-libya-and-beyond

    like I said its from april and I’m not sure I agree with everything he says but it includes and assessment of the Libyan regime from someone who opposes the bombing,
    If you believe what he says, it’s not pretty

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