The Balance of Probabilities 1084


Unlike the famous chemical weapons “attack” portrayed by the BBC in Saving Syria’s Children, it does appear that in the latest incident at Idlib there was real horror inflicted by chemical attack of some kind. The question is who did it and why?

I am no fan of the Assad regime, and I have no problem using the word “regime” to describe it. Dictators do hold and win elections. I have lived in severe dictatorships and seen from the inside how they do it. The human rights abuses of the Assad regime have been well documented for decades.

But Bashar al Assad is neither stupid nor unsophisticated. Aided by Putin, he outwitted Obama by quickly giving up his chemical weapons to be destroyed and accepting transparency in verification. There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.

Assad had seen his position go from strength to strength, thanks to Putin’s astute deployment of Russia’s limited military power. Militarily the balance had swung dramatically in Assad’s favour, while Trump had said the unsayable and acknowledged that putting Syria into the hands of Wahabbist crazies was not in the United States interest.

So I cannot conceive that Assad would risk throwing all of this away for the sake of a militarily insignificant small chemical weapons attack. It would be an act of the most extreme folly. It is not impossible – hubris is a great temptation to dictators – but given how Assad has played it so far, it seems out of character and extremely improbable. What is less improbable is a local battlefield decision by pro-Assad forces. In my close observation of dictatorial regimes, a fascinating feature is that they operate an image of the perfection of the state. They are highly adverse to admitting mistakes.

What did happen I do not profess to know. There are at least eleven major identifiable state and non-state forces involved in the fighting around Idlib. In going through them all and considering opportunity and motive for each, I continually find that those whose motive would be false flag stand to benefit a great deal more than those who might have been seeking military advantage.

I am therefore for now unconvinced that this was a deliberate use of chemical weapons by Assad forces. I do not rule it out, but it would take much more concrete evidence than currently offered to prove they did something so strongly and obviously against their own interest. But western governments and media have determined to make that the narrative, so the truth is, as so often in modern geo-politics, entirely incidental to the course of future events.


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1,084 thoughts on “The Balance of Probabilities

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  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Can the western media sink any lower? Think not.

    The only thing that I got from Lavrov in his joint press conference with Tillerson is that Russia wants an independent inquiry into the chemical attack in Syria, but I have NOT found a report which repeats the request.

  • michael norton

    A big explosion in the Turkish city of Diyarbakir which originally appeared to be an accident was actually the result of a terror attack, the interior minister has said.

    Suleyman Soylu told Turkish TV that explosives had been planted in a tunnel dug beneath the police headquarters.

    Three people died in Tuesday’s blast in the mainly Kurdish south-eastern city.

    ——–
    The Balance of Probabilities

    is that people loyal to The Sultan of Turkey planned it in the lead up to the referendum to change the Turkish constitution.

  • Ba'al Zevul

    Here’s a little puzzle for y’all:
    Take a look at these two pictures of what seems to be the only crater caused by an alleged sarin-containing missile of some sort after the recent attack, blamed by everybody on everybody else:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ahttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-chemical-attack-idlib-sarin-gas-toxic-khan-sheikhoun-russia-assad-claims-experts-evidence-a7668996.htmlpr/06/the-dead-were-wherever-you-looked-inside-syrian-town-after-chemical-attack

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-chemical-attack-idlib-sarin-gas-toxic-khan-sheikhoun-russia-assad-claims-experts-evidence-a7668996.html

    The pictures were taken of the same crater, from similar angles – feel free to contradict me if I’m wrong – but the impressive shard of something which (improbably) didn’t get blown away by the bursting charge seems to have moved, and it doesn’t look like the same piece of metal, either.

    Very hmmmm.

    • glenn_uk

      Ba’al… Your first link looks a bit iffy. It appears the indy’s URL has merged with that of the Graun somehow.

    • mog

      The Guardian photo is in this article and is attributed to Kareem Shaheen:
      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/06/the-dead-were-wherever-you-looked-inside-syrian-town-after-chemical-attack

      The metal fragment has definitely moved I would say.

      Anyone got an opinion on Shaheen’s journalistic standards?
      These closing paragraphs make no sense to me:
      Abdulhamid al-Yousef, one of the few survivors in the family, was receiving condolences at his home in Khan Sheikhun, a day after burying his wife and nine-month-old twins, Ahmed and Aya, fighting back tears.

      Yousef had rushed to help the other victims of the attack. He came back instead to find that much of his family had perished, including siblings, nephews and nieces. His wife and children had rushed down to the bomb shelter in their basement, only for the toxic gas to seep into it, which killed them all.

      That evening at the cemetery, he insisted on carrying his two infants in his arms to bury them himself. Almost in a trance Yousef repeated the children’s names, choking as he did so. “Aya and Ahmed, my souls. Yasser and Ahmed, my brothers who had my back. Ammoura and Hammoudi, Shaimaa, so many others,” he said.

      If Shaheen was visiting the town ‘two days after the attack’, when did Yousef bury his twin daughters? If it was on the day of the attack, how can Shaheen report as if a witness to the burial?

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    I see that Russia has vetoed the UN resolution on an inquiry into the gas attack in Syria, and hardly surprising.

    The resolution called for the Organiization for the Prohibition of Chemical Wleapons’ Executive Committee to conduct it, and Russia isn’t even on it while the USA, along with a considerable number of supporters, including Northern Ireland, are. Of course, nothing about this in the toady media.

    Reminds me of barrister Henry Brougham recalling a notorious suspect approving being tried, provided his brother was the judge!

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Trowbridge H. Ford April 12, 2017 at 21:35
      Yep, bit like April Gallup’s case against government agents in the Pentagon attack getting tried by a relative of the Bush’s, who refused to recuse himself.

  • michael norton

    That will be a first

    Nicola Sturgeon said she would make her case with “courtesy and respect” for those with different views.

  • Dave

    The story so far! The ‘coalition of the willing’ backed Iraq in an 8 year war with Iran, resulting in over a million casualties, and when Iraq won, gave them the green light to invade Kuwait, as compensation, but once in gave them an ultimatum, without a face saving formula, to get out, as a way/pretext to destroy the Iraqi army and the weapons they were given to fight Iran, followed by years of sanctions to force them to destroy the remaining weapons they never had, as a way to depose SH and start a civil war, but as SH survived, they then invaded the country because they wouldn’t destroy the WMDs they never had, and thus fulfilled their wish to destroy the country and in the process strengthened Iran, that had become regionally stronger, despite its own loses in the Iran/Iraq war, meaning that Iran now had to suffer sanctions and military threats to destroy the nuclear WMDs it doesn’t have, but not before arming the Sunni remnants of the Iraqi army to attack Syria to drive out the Alawite (not Sunni or Shia) secular leadership and protector of Christian and other minority communities, and start a civil war, which in turn strengthened the Kurds, which led to a growing military involvement of Turkey to suppress the Kurds, under pretext of fighting IS, whom they support, but which threatens Iran and creates security problems for Russia, who have intervened to support Assad, which has led to them being punished by the anti-Russian coup in the Ukraine, but Russia saw an opportunity to destroy the CIA franchise IS after the US/UK failed to get approval to bomb Assad directly and said they would bomb IS instead, as cover for bombing Assad. But the Russians said that’s OK we’ll do it for you, leading to complaints that they were bombing the ‘moderates’ and not IS, but now Assad is so close to victory, we are being re-told, due to the false flag chemical attack, we need to bomb Assad because he is as bad as IS, and unless the US do it, to prove their not pro-Russian, no one else will! And if it results in IS taking over, we’ll have to bomb them too! Simples!

    • glenn_uk

      Excellent summary. Not forgetting the other results… unpopular leaders get to strut around as a “War President/PM” and gain popularity out of an assumed patriotic rallying around the leader. Blow-back from people suitably deranged from the atrocities committed by our “coalition of the willing”, NATO and suchlike are labelled terrorists who want to upset our peace-loving nature, and give rise to a police/security state in our own countries (because we love freedom and liberty so much).

      Tangential rewards effects will include massive amounts of taxpayer money being shovelled to the arms contractors, weapons manufactures and mercenary outfits. They, and their hangers-on in the weapons lobbying industry, will make a lot of war-lovers extremely rich. But any level of richness can only satisfy for so long, so more wars, terrorist fomenting and infrastructure destroying activity has to be constantly undertaken.

      Meanwhile, while the politicians bravely put on suits (or dresses) and distract us from the inequities and deterioration back home with all this business of keeping us safe, they take away our liberties to protest, to free speech, and to privacy. All for our own good.

      This is how the world works now. Oh yes, and don’t worry about climate change – that’s a hoax, didn’t you hear?

      http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Dave April 13, 2017 at 00:19
      One small correction: Saddam didn’t win. When he was in danger of losing, the US arranged for him to get chemical weapons, eventually actually supplying them themselves.
      The ‘war’ (US instigated) was in stalemate when Iran agreed to a UN ceasefire.
      But yep, the US both enabled and later directly supplied Saddam with CW’s.

  • Sharp Ears

    The representative for the Palestinians, Manuel Hassassian, is not given any diplomatic recognition by the UK unlike Regev. Here he writes on 100 years of oppression.

    ‘A century of rubbing salt in Palestinian wounds is surely enough, even for Britain

    The Balfour declaration, 100 years ago, was devastating for our people. Yet Theresa May says she will be marking its anniversary ‘with pride’ .

    A Palestinian teacher gives a lesson in front of a cement wall separating them from an Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Photograph: Hazem Bader/AFP/Getty Images

    During his recent visit to Ramallah, Boris Johnson re-emphasised Britain’s long-standing support for the two-state solution and its position that illegal Israeli settlements are an obstacle to peace. Last December Britain also supported UN security council resolution 2334, which reiterated the illegality of settlements.

    Yet last month, at the UN human rights council, the British government chose to abstain on key resolutions devised to hold Israel to account for its human rights violations in the occupied Palestinian territories and its illegal settlement building. This clearly demonstrates that Britain refuses to put pressure on Israel to stop its continuing theft of Palestinian land. In February the red carpet was rolled out at No 10 to welcome Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who represents a hard right, increasingly racist government. Britain’s foreign secretary was proud to assert that the two countries have just made their biggest joint trade deal.

    UN criticism of Israel but not Syria is absurd, says Johnson.

    /..
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/12/palestinian-britain-balfour-declaration-theresa-may

    http://palmissionuk.org/about+us/the+ambassador/about+the+ambassador/

  • Dave

    Livingstone is in trouble for mentioning the Haavara Agreement made by Nazis in exchange for the Zionists easing the US economic boycott of Germany, prior to WWII. Its embarrassing because the Zionists blame everyone for colluding with the Nazis except themselves. The Balfour Declaration was made by the British in exchange for the Zionists acting get the US involved in WWI on the British side.

    The PM denounces mention of the first historical fact but ‘celebrates’ the second historical fact! Perhaps Livingstone could mention to the PM that the Balfour Declaration was an ambiguous declaration that only appeared to benefit the Jews (headlined), because it made clear this benefit couldn’t be at a cost to the native Arab population (ignored). Or would highlighting the reason for and the content of the Balfour Declaration be ‘anti-Semitic’?

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Dave April 13, 2017 at 09:56
      Dave, be careful! Telling the truth can be bad for your health! I know; I’ve tried it, got consequences, and am still hammering on. Maybe I’m a masochist!

  • mog

    Monbiot is still determined to shout down anyone who is doubtful of the empire’s version of the Idlib event, calling doubters ‘deniers’.

    He cites Elliot Higgins (published by the Atlantic Council) as his definitive ‘proof’. Read about them if you don’t know already, and wonder what is George Monbiot’s mind state?

  • Sharp Ears

    Coalition Strikes Daesh Depot With Chemical Weapons in Deir ez-Zor – Syrian MoD
    12:59 13.04.2017(updated 13:59 13.04.2017)
    The Syrian General Staff said that the US-led coalition struck a Daesh depot storing chemical weapons in Deir ez-Zor on Wednesday.

    The Syrian military said that this fact proves that terrorists possess chemical weapons.
    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704131052598995-coalition-daesh-chemical-weapons-syria/

    ‘According to the Syrian General Staff, the US-led coalition’s strike killed ++ several hundred people++, including civilians. Hundreds were poisoned as a result of the strike on Daesh’s headquarters and depot with chemical weapons.’

    • Paul Barbara

      @ Sharp Ears April 13, 2017 at 12:31
      And apparently not a peep out of the one-jerk-band Syrian Human Rights Observatory, or whatever it calls itself. Why?
      Not an attack on your comment, SE, just a target for any ‘Regime Change’ supporters on here. We’ll see if they bite!
      There, I’ve given my dastardly plot away!

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Now China has shown its true colors, calling for North Korea to give up is nuclear ambitions, and that it will protect it if it does which explains why it abstained on the UN resolution for a kangaroo western court to determine that Russia was behind the recent gas attack in Syria. Beijing wants a peaceful solution to current international problems

    Posters should thin of immigrating to China as its governors are much more sensible than the Anglo-American war mongers.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Now the Pentagon is pre-empting Assad’s statement that the Syrian government was not involved in the deadly gas attack there by saying that it has secret intelligence that not only Syria but also Russia was behind the attack on the hospital afterwards to help cover up the war crimes.

    America is now totally at the mercy of its own government’s covert lies.

  • michael norton

    President Assad: Idlib attack 100% fabricated, Syria has already destroyed all chemical weapons.
    https://www.rt.com/news/384628-assad-says-chemical-attack-fabricated/
    “Definitely, 100 percent for us, it’s fabrication… Our impression is that the West, mainly the United States, is hand-in-glove with the terrorists,” President Assad told the French news agency in his first interview since the retaliatory US missile strike on a Syrian airbase in Shayrat.

    “They fabricated the whole story in order to have a pretext for the attack,” he said.

    Not looking so rosy for President Trump.

    He has been duped.

  • Barry

    Look lot like Conservative Friends of Israel are cashing in their chips. Johnston should not ever be in a situation on Syria. His close relationship with CFI but also his questionable domicile raises questions of impartiality.

    • michael norton

      The Pentagon confirmed Thursday that the explosive colossus was dropped in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province, making it the first time America’s largest non-nuclear weapon has been used in a combat situation.

      Pentagon spokesman Adam Stump said it was the first ever combat use of the bomb, which contains 11 tons of explosives.

      Stump said the bomb was dropped on a cave complex believed to be used by ISIS fighters in the Achin district of Nangarhar province, very close to the border with Pakistan.

      This might also be a message to SYRIA,
      we dropped 59 Tomahawk weapons on your 50 hardened bunkers, but you continue to use the airport, one more mis-step and bunker buster for Syria.

      • Nick

        More like “look at us….we aren’t sponsoring terrorism. Hell we just dropped a big goddam bomb in the middle of nowhere to prove it. How could we be arming those fighting assad and russia?” Piss poor show.

    • Hieroglyph

      I will say this for Trump: he appears to be bombing the correct people, mostly. The US has a long, bloody history of bombing left wing groups, wedding guests, and pro-democracy forces, so bombing terrorists is an improvement, at the margins.

      I should note, I am quite clear that the US has gone insane, and I don’t approve of any of these military strikes. My approval, of course, is meaningless, but I condemn these strikes nonetheless. Nope, the US needs to draw down, get rid of all its bases, and stop acting crazy. It’s not yet clear if Syria is about to be invaded, and I remain hopeful that Trump will avoid that quagmire. This hope is not based on any experience, or logic, it is a fleeting thing that, doubtless, will evaporate soon. But, nonetheless, they haven’t invaded yet. We will see.

      And he’s still better than Clinton. She’s a whack job.

      • bevin

        Bombs like this one are genocidal-and some. They kill everything within a large area. Essentially they are without military purpose, simply toys that vain scientists devise to amuse their masters in the MIC, who lobby furiously for their use in the hope of profitable orders being renewed.
        With budgets the size of those the Pentagon struggles to spend such weapons systems are useful. Pity about the formerly living creatures, the flora too and the atmosphere.
        What a way to celebrate the Crucifixion.

  • Sharp Ears

    Ramzy Baroud was born in Gaza,

    This is his latest essay.

    Palestine retold: Palestine’s tragic anniversaries are not only about remembrance
    April 10, 2017

    For Palestinians, 2017 is a year of significant anniversaries.

    While historians mark May 15th as the anniversary of the date on which Palestinians were expelled from their historic homeland in 1948, the fact is the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians began in earnest in 1947.

    In strict historical terms 1947 and ‘48 were the years in which Palestine was conquered and depopulated.

    The tragedy, which remains a bleeding wound until this day, started 70 years ago.

    /…
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170410-palestine-retold-palestines-tragic-anniversaries-are-not-only-about-remembrance/

    • Álvares Reyes

      John Mearsheimer gave recently an excellent talk on what’s happened in the 10 years after they published the Israel Lobby book with Stephen Walt (“Israel Lobby and American Policy” conference on March 24th, 2017 at the National Press Club), he summarizes brilliantly the current Israeli situation:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8Mgdm_6-e0

      Washington Report on Middle East Affairs event also had talks by Hanan Ashrawi (Palestinian Perspective on the Peace Process), Tom Hayes (Challenges in Working Against the Israel Lobby), Ilan Pappe (Decolonizing Israel), Jim Moran & Nick Rahall (Fighting the Israel Lobby in Congress) – those are the ones I’ve watched so far on youtube, all very interesting.
      ————-
      Assad’s AFP interview:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bnpy7mrGMS0

      I’m more inclined to believe him in this instance, at this point in time. I may change my mind if I see actual evidence proving otherwise.

  • michael norton

    The Taliban, of Afghanistan, are now calling themselves the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA),
    is a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist political movement in Afghanistan currently waging war (an insurgency, or jihad) within that country.
    Not sure if these are the people the MOAB was dropped on by Trump, yesterday?

    Al-Qaeda is a militant Sunni Islamist multi-national organization founded in 1988 by Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam,
    and several other Arab volunteers who fought against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s.

    Islamic State are also Sunni.

    So these three Islamist terror groups are all Sunni.

    President Assad is not Sunni,
    he is trying to hols Syria together,
    while it is being ravaged by various outside groups, including
    Turkey, U.S.A., Jordan, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, U.A.E., U.K. and France?

  • michael norton

    U.S.A. MOAB “mother of all bombs” killed 36 Islamic State militants in Afghanistan
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-afghanistan-bomb-idUKKBN17F27W
    As many as 36 suspected Islamic State militants were killed in Afghanistan when the United States dropped “the mother of all bombs,” one of the largest non-nuclear devices ever unleashed in combat, the Afghan defence ministry said on Friday.

    Thursday’s strike came as U.S. President Donald Trump dispatches his first high-level delegation to Kabul, amid uncertainty about his plans for the nearly 9,000 American troops stationed in Afghanistan.

    The deaths have not been independently verified, but ministry spokesman Dawlat Waziri said no civilians were harmed in the massive blast that targeted a network of caves and tunnels.

    “No civilian has been hurt and only the base, which Daesh used to launch attacks in other parts of the province, was destroyed,” Waziri said in a statement.

    He was using an Arabic term that refers to Islamic State, which has established a small stronghold in eastern Afghanistan and launched deadly attacks on the capital, Kabul.

    The 21,600-pound (9,797-kg) GBU-43 bomb, was dropped from an MC-130 aircraft in the Achin district of the eastern province of Nangarhar bordering Pakistan, Pentagon spokesman Adam Stump said on Thursday.

    ———

    So Donald Trump has opened up three fronts at once, is that wise?

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Is North Korea to experience a surface earthquake at its test site, like Iran suffered while the Obama administration was trying to get the Senate to approve a new START treaty with Moscow?

    North Korea has suffered two significant, surface earthquakes in the past year, and another Pentagon-made one would be quite effective today rather than dropping another MOAB bomb or a nuclear one.

    Just the kind of surprise that bully Trump is capable of.

  • Dave

    In an odd way Trumps attacks are a form of false flag, intended to steer the narrative, like the mock drill false flags, with few getting killed. The attack on Syria, coordinated with Russia, was a $60 million attack on an empty airfield causing little practical damage and the MOAB is a $18million attack on an almost empty mountain range in the middle of nowhere. Both attacks kill people, all sides have blood on their hands, but neither really risks war because the damage in the scheme of things is slight. In return Trump gets to look tough and anti-Russian and the Pentagon are happy because they’re using up ordinance that presumably now needs replacing. For the arms dealers spending $billions destroying a $10 mud hut or pick-up truck, suits them fine. They’re not really bothered why or on what their weapons are used, as long as they’re used and need replacing. Its the neo-cons who will be upset, because the attacks are not designed to start WWIII. In other words I’m saying there still maybe a pro-Russian, end the foreign wars, method to Trump’s madness! I hope.

  • michael norton

    The Donald to open up a fourth front.

    U.S.A. troops to “help” Somalia fight al-Shabab – Black Hawk Down.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39600419

    This is the first time regular US troops have been deployed in Somalia since 1994, although some counter-terrorism advisers are already there.

    President Donald Trump last month approved a directive allowing tougher action against al-Shabab.

    In 1993, 18 US special forces personnel were killed in the incident dramatised in the Hollywood film Black Hawk Down.

    • Herbie

      Yup.

      His kind are an endangered species.

      At least in msm, but perhaps more generally.

      Anyway, this war hungry drunk act is a means of putting competitors on edge.

      Contradicting himself ten times before breakfast, flip flopping all over the place, 180 degree turns, sudden strikes without warning, duckin and divin here there and anywhere.

      Hard to figure what he’s gonna do next.

      That’s the point.

      Trump’s buffoonish demeanour allows him to carry this off rather well. His language is imprecise, colloquial, idiomatic, and delivered in a matey way.

      Easy to brush off anything he’s previously said, as if it were only the lads in their cups from the night before.

      Bit like Johnson’s act, in many ways.

      It’s kinda more like guerilla tactics than what you’d expect from an empire at its height.

  • Salford Lad

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c84aIeipXmQ
    Mathew Rycroft the UK representative at the UN, pushing the false US version of the chemical weapon attack in Syria. I believe he was also involved with the promotion of the ‘dodgy dossier ‘ that Tony Blair used to involve us in the Iraq War.
    Possibly Craig has some background on this toadie.

    • Bobm

      Salford Lad

      Rycroft was Blair’s Private Secretary.

      His most notorious involvement was in penning the memo, on Blair’s behalf, confirming that it was Blair’s “unequivocal view” that Saddam was in material breach of the SC resolution on which Goldsmith relied in advising that the invasion of Iraq was legally defensible.

      You can find all the material you could wish for on Chris Lamb’s site:

      https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/information_underpinning_blairs#incoming-907632

      and still more on Chris Ames’ site:

      http://www.iraqinquirydigest.org/?page_id=2

        • Salford Lad

          Thank you Bobm, same old bastards ,keep popping up. Britain is up to its eye-balls in Syria, but remains largely under the radar to many, The White Helmets propagandists and ‘false flag; producers are the brain child of MI6, trained and directed by their ex-British mercenary James Le Mesurier, financed by the coalition of the US ,with a British contribution to date of $24m.
          They even gave them a Hollywood Oscar for a documentary,,promoted by their stooge George Clowney. They are really taking the Harry Michael.

  • michael norton

    SYRIA war: HUGE BOMB kills dozens of evacuees in Syria

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39609288

    A huge car bomb has blasted a convoy of coaches carrying evacuees from government-held towns in Syria, killing at least 39 people.

    It shattered coaches and set cars on fire, leaving a trail of bodies including children, as the convoy waited in rebel territory near Aleppo.

    Russian troops have reportedly moved to shield rebel evacuees from retaliation.

    Thousands of evacuees from both sides of Syria’s civil war have been stuck in hostile territory since Friday.

    The “Four Towns” deal brokered by Iran and Qatar was meant to relieve suffering in besieged towns – Foah and Kefraya in the north-west which are under government control, and rebel-held Madaya and Zabadani near Damascus.

    ——-

    I suppose Trump will blame Assad, personally, for this crime?

    • Paul Barbara

      @ michael norton April 15, 2017 at 17:34
      ‘…I suppose Trump will blame Assad, personally, for this crime?’
      And so he jolly well should! Assad’s driving licence was found unscathed in the remnants of the car.

  • michael norton

    Islamic State militant linked to the Paris Charlie Hebdo attack could still be alive – Iraq
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-iraq-france-idUKKBN17H0EW

    “Iraqi intelligence supplied information to the Syrian airforce to carry out a series of strikes on Islamic State headquarters and hideouts in Syria, including one believed to belong to el-Hakim, an Iraqi military statement said.

    Aircraft from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s airforce targeted several locations in Raqqa and Albu Kamal, near the Iraqi border, said the statement, without indicating the location of el-Hakim’s headquarters or the date of the raids.

    An Iraqi military spokesman told Reuters el-Hakim’s headquarters were destroyed but it wasn’t clear if he was killed.

    In 2015 Iraq and Syria established a joint committee with Russia and Iran, Assad’s main foreign backers, to share intelligence about Islamic State.”

    So it would seem Iraq are cooperating with the Syrian airforce.

    However the Americans are bombing the Syrian airforce

    why don’t the Americans bomb Islamic State?

    • michael norton

      More Particularly,
      Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran and Russia are cooperating to defeat Islamic State.

      However that alliance does not suit the coalition of the willing, headed by America
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_the_willing

      If we go back three decades, Afghanistan asked Russia for help to suppress the Taliban / Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

      now the Americans did not like that so they armed al-Qaeda

      So multiple years down the line MOAB is dropped on Afghanistan, yet just as Russia/Iraq/Lebanon/Iran and Syria start to get a handle on
      Islamic State /al-Qaeda the Americans fire off 59 Tomahawks and threaten more

      so what is going on?

  • michael norton

    Five Eyes
    You might have thought that the United Kingdom “Listening” centre in Cyprus
    would have been able to detect if
    Shayrat Airbase was the forward point for dropping SARIN on the villages in Idlib Province.

    Six Eyes

    According to the news magazine L’Obs, in 2009, the United States proposed to France to join the Five Eyes, that would then have become the “Six Eyes”. Nicolas Sarkozy however made the requirement to be granted the same status as other allies, including the signing of a “no-spy agreement”. This requirement was approved by the director of the NSA, but not by the director of the CIA,
    and furthermore not by President Barack Obama, resulting in a refusal from France.

    |One would imagine, now The United Kingdom is splitting the crazy European scene,
    that further enlargement of Fives Eyes into non-English- speaking Europe is off the table?

    but keeping, including Cyprus and Gibratar.

    • Salford Lad

      Michael Norton, desist from spreading the US propaganda. Assad did not drop Sarin on his fellow citizens or anyone else. He does not have Sarin. All stocks were removed under UN supervision in 2013, The Sarin atrocity in Ghouta in 2013 was a Jihadist set-up to drag the US into the war.
      The attack on Shayrat airfield was planned days before and the chemical weapon attack was another set-up by the Jihadists and their behind the scenes supporters.
      If in doubt, ask Cui Bono. In this case certainly not Assad, but certainly Donald Trump ,who has got the Russiagate monkey off his back and the Jihadists, who scored a propaganda victory.

      • michael norton

        Assad’s denials of chemical attack ‘100% lies’, says French foreign minister

        http://www.france24.com/en/20170414-assad-syria-denials-chemical-attack-100-lies-france-ayrault
        Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s comments that last week’s chemical weapons attack was a fabrication to justify a US military strike are “100 percent lies”, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said Friday.

        “It’s 100 percent lies and propaganda,” Ayrault said during a visit to Beijing, responding to an exclusive AFP interview with Assad on Wednesday.

        “It’s 100 percent cruelty and cynicism.”

        So France is sure, Britain is sure, America is sure
        Russia ans Syria are sure they didn’t.

        both sides maybe sure but they cannot both be correct.

        Maybe some body should look into it.

        However The Donald has already fired 59 Tomahawks, he was so sure.

        What next after the horror of Saturday?

        • michael norton

          Assad described any suggestion that chemical weapons had been used as “100% fabrication” intended to justify US attacks on a Syrian airbase.

          “Our impression is that the west, mainly the United States, is hand-in-glove with the terrorists. They fabricated the whole story in order to have a pretext for the attack,” Assad said in his first interview since the attack.

          Images from Khan Sheikhun of victims convulsing and foaming at the mouth caused widespread international outrage. Trump cited the suffering of dozens of children who were among the dead and injured as one of the main reasons he dropped his long-standing opposition military action against Assad.

          But the Syrian leader questioned whether the videos were real, insisting it was “not clear whether it happened or not, because how can you verify a video? You have a lot of fake videos now”.

          He said: “We don’t know whether those dead children were killed in Khan Sheikhun. Were they dead at all? Who committed the attack if there was an attack?”
          https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/13/assad-says-syria-chemical-attack-khan-sheikhun-fabrication

          What could be the reasoning behind President Assad gassing the people.

          The only (Assad) reason I could imagine would be to draw in The Donald into fierce fighting with Russia,

          but surely that would be madness as Syria would be the battleground.

  • Hieroglyph

    So, apparently small children were lured to a bus located in ‘rebel’ territory, with promises of crisps – but got a suicide bomber instead. Actually a double treachery, because this was during a people-exchange, agreed by the Government, and various ‘rebel’ groups.

    Small children, lured to their deaths. Of course, the West will continue to support the Wahhabist head-choppers. It’s an odd thing, isn’t it, when the hero’s of the hour are Assad and Putin, and the bad guys – well that’s us. Everything we’ve done in the Mid-East has turned to shit, and everything we do is wrong. If there is a war, I’m moving to Russia.

    • michael norton

      Sorry, rebel held land in North West Syria.
      Rashideen district west of Aleppo, Syria.

      Apparently, no one has claimed responsibility for this horror

  • michael norton

    Yemen not going to plan

    A military helicopter crash in Yemen that killed 12 Saudi soldiers was reportedly caused by friendly fire.

    The Black Hawk crashed in Marib Province, east of the capital Sanaa.

    Ministry of Truth

    One thing for sure the United Kingdom will not be invading
    North Korea, Syria, Somalia, Afghanistan or Yemen,
    till after the forthcoming General Election.

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