Theresa May’s Brittle Shield Wall 166


Pollster YouGove is into full on propaganda mode. They present results dished up with explanatory press releases for right wing journalists to push. This one was commissioned by Murdoch.

But if you burrow down into the actual data, which no journalist ever does, sometimes there are results which are quite interesting. It is important of course to note that the sample is a self-selecting one of the kind of people who volunteer for online polls, and is then adjusted to account for a number of things including a historic tendency to underrate the Tory vote, so the Tory numbers are consciously increased.

The first warning light flashes at me in the subsamples. The headline 48-24% Tory lead over Labour includes an extraordinary 29% Tory vote in Scotland. That is quite simply impossible. If it proves to be true, I will walk the length of Holyrood Road on my knees. It is bollocks.

That aside, the brittleness of the support the media have whipped up for hard Brexit is shown in a series of questions about the EU. Now it is true – and this was headlined by YouGove and the media – that by a narrow 46-43% the poll states that people believe Britain is right to leave the European Union. (32-60% in Scotland).

But dig into that and you find that support for May’s Brexit is quite extraordinarily brittle. This is the truly striking lesson from this poll, and nobody has picked up on it.

Look at the answers to these questions. In each case I have excluded the don’t knows and recalculated from the table:

Do you think Britain will be better off or worse off after we leave the EU?
Better off: 33%
Worse off: 44%
No Diff 23%

Do you think Britain will have more or less influence in the world after we leave the EU?
More influence: 23%
Less influence: 43%
No Diff: 34%

Do you think leaving the EU will have a good or bad effect on British jobs?

Good for jobs: 29%
Bad for jobs: 41%
No Difference: 30%

Do you think leaving the EU will have a good or bad effect on British pensions?

Good for pensions: 10%
Bad for pensions: 32%
No Difference: 58%

Do you think that leaving the EU will have a good or bad effect on the NHS?

Good for the NHS: 30%
Bad for the NHS: 34%
No Difference: 36%

Do you think there will be more or less immigration into the UK after we leave the EU?

More immigration: 3%
Less immigration: 56%
No Difference: 41%

So Theresa May wishes to hustle to a quick election victory on what she views as a national consensus building around hard Brexit. But that consensus is extremely brittle.

A majority of the population believe that Brexit is bad for the economy, bad for jobs, bad for the NHS, bad for pensions and bad for British influence in the world. The population are being stampeded into a direction that they plainly believe to be against their own self-interest. This makes May extraordinarily vulnerable to pushback on the EU. That should benefit the LibDems. It also shows that the SNP is wrong to backpedal on the EU to placate the Sillars vote. The pro-EU answers to each of those questions in Scotland alone are simply overwhelming.

Brexit’s only salience is on one single issue: immigration. But this poll does something still more interesting. It provides absolute proof of what I have been observing and commenting on for the past ten years, that the anti-immigration movement is founded on pure and simple racism.

Cutting immigration is the only alleged positive a majority see from Brexit. But they do not believe that this cutting of immigration will improve jobs, the economy, pensions, or the NHS. All the canting justifications for cutting immigration are cut through, because this poll reveals that people do not expect to see any of those effects. No, Brexiteers want to cut immigration simply because they are racists and do not like foreigners.

But given that May wants to fight this election solely on Brexit, and given that the only area of traction Brexit has is immigration, we can expect to see the nastiest anti-immigration campaign ever waged by a mainstream party. We can also expect to see repeatedly what Adam Boulton did to the Lib Dems Sarah Ludford on Sky News and hour ago. As soon as the EU was mentioned, Boulton aggressively intervened by invoking dog-whistle anti-immigration racism.

That is why Conservative policy today is near identical to the BNP manifesto of 2005, which promised:

– Severe cuts in immigration
– Leaving the EU
– Bringing back grammar schools
– Increased military spending
– More “security” and “strong leadership”
– Foreign policy driven by “British national interest” not human rights
– Reduce development aid

A Tory vote is a racist vote. Full stop.


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166 thoughts on “Theresa May’s Brittle Shield Wall

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    • Sharp Ears

      I happen to be watching Scotland Office Questions from 19 April on the Parliament Channel. The SNP MPs are making mincemeat of ‘Fluffy’ Mundell. A proper ROTFLMAO.

      • Brianfujisan

        And Ruthie got put in her place too.. The Only leader in Scotland Not to attend the Rape Clause Protest.. Despicable

        At Least kezia, acts Civilized, Whereas it’s Open Aggression from Davidson..All the Time, Probably because we Scots should not Ever be questioning the Mighty Establishment

  • RobG

    So here we go: you can vote for a complete and utter bunch of corrupt psychopaths who promote endless war and ‘austerity’.

    Or else you now have the opportunity to vote for a sane society.

    It really is a no-brainer.

  • RobG

    I will remind people that the first round of the French presidential election is this coming Sunday.

    It’s a very close race between four candidates.

    Ask me on Monday if I called it wrong.

  • Euan Gray

    Delusional.

    Castigating people whose opinions you don’t like as racist, xenophobic or bigoted has worked so terribly well for the left over past decade, hasn’t it, Murray?

    Keep it up. All you’re doing is ensuring people like you will lose even more soundly.

  • Decoud

    No, what the figures you quote show is that a clear majority believes Britain will be either the same or better off after Brexit.

    Those polled also quite reasonably believe immigration will be reduced by Brexit, and to hold that belief is not necessarily to desire it.

    But even if they did desire less immigration, that makes them no more racist than a woman desiring not to sleep with a man makes her a man-hater.

    • fred

      “No, what the figures you quote show is that a clear majority believes Britain will be either the same or better off after Brexit”

      Or to put it another way the figures show that a clear majority believe Britain will be either the same or worse off after Brexit,

        • bevin

          The result was far from being clear. And not least because the Unionist campaign, with Gordon Brown in the van, were offering something very close to effective independence, as well as guaranteeing all the benefits that they had threatened would be lost if the “Yes” side won.
          Since the vote none of the Unionist promises have been kept and the ‘benefits’ of remaining within the UK have been considerably eroded. Most recently by the decision to leave the EU, which, at the time of the referendum, was part of the Unionist package. In fact the Unionists threatened that a “Yes” vote would jeopardise EU membership.
          A great deal has changed and it is quite proper that a new referendum should be held, given the serial betrayals of the Unionists, which are in part marked by the decline into irrelevance of the leading Unionist party Scotland’s “New Labour”.

          • Loony

            You are scraping the barrel with your latest argument.

            People were lied to by Gordon Brown – my word what a surprise, after all it is not like the man has a track record of telling lies in the most public arena he could find, and it is not like those lies have been documented in all manner of media.

            How could Scottish voters ever have come to the conclusion ahead of time that Gordon Brown was unlikely to be telling the truth.

            But then that is probably the entire point isn’t it. You despise the average person so completely that in your view they are never capable of acting in their own best interests and always need a more enlightened figure to guide them toward paradise on earth. Whereas Hobbs only believed life to be nasty, brutish and short you appear of the view that people are nasty, brutish and short.

          • Zebedee

            Old Gormless Gordon calling that old woman a racist, must the same as Craig has taken to calling everybody a racist; maybe it’s something in the air in Scotland? (Whisky fumes perhaps?)

      • Bayard

        “Or to put it another way the figures show that a clear majority believe Britain will be either the same or worse off after Brexit,”

        Yes, but what they don’t say is “A majority of the population believe that Brexit is bad for the economy, bad for jobs, bad for the NHS, bad for pensions and bad for British influence in the world.” What they do say is that more people thought that Brexit would be worse off after Brexit than thought Britain would be better off OR that thought it would make no difference, ditto jobs and influence. That’s not “a majority”. Even if it were, when it comes to the NHS and pensions, the “majority” would then be of the opinion it would make no difference. In any case, having, as long as I have been reading his blog, always castigated the British government as venal and corrupt, I would have thought that Craig would be pleased that such a rotten crew was going to have less influence round the world.

    • RobG

      *Yawn*

      Britain is a vassal state of the American empire, and most British politicians are total traitors.

      Why do most Brits find this so hard to understand when it is so obvious?

      • Zebedee

        “Britain is a vassal state of the American empire, and most British politicians are total traitors.

        Why do most Brits find this so hard to understand when it is so obvious?”

        I asked that very question right up until I left the country in an effort to find freedom in 1975. Being smarter than you, I soon found that the grass is not greener on the other side, and no matter where you live there are always rich oligarchs pulling the strings behind the scenes, so it’s a case of better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t know, and I came back home.

        Meanwhile you are still living in France thinking that this forthcoming election is going to bring you freedom. Why do you find this so hard to understand when it is so obvious?

        • JOML

          Zebedee, I agree with the essence of what you are saying, but it is depressing to think we have to accept this situation. I believe the problem is easier to address in smaller countries. For example, the U.K. appears to be ruled by the bullingdon club- type, whereas the opportunity to govern in an independent Scotland should be more open e.g. Nicola Sturgeon was brought up in a council house and attended a state school. In larger countries such as England and France, I don’t know how you can overcome this issue, unless they are governed by unique, selfless individuals.

  • Peter

    Why are you people all getting so worked up. Scotland doesn’t even exist as far as a great many people. Lots of letters are being addressed Edinburgh “England”. On the continent the Scottish independence is no topic but all are interested in Brexit. Also when a continental European talks about England he usually means the U.k. of G.B and Northern Ireland.

  • Republicofscotland

    Well the largest recipent of taxpayers monies (possibly ever) turned 91 today, no cuts in her privy purse, no sanctions either.

    God bless you mam, you’ve lived very high on the hog all your cosseted life, at very little cost, to yourself, hip hip hooray.

      • Republicofscotland

        Yes thankfully that idea went down like a lead balloon. Or we’d have been better of just giving her the keys to the Treasury, oh wait we already have. 😀

    • michael norton

      BREXIT jobs flee to the continent

      More than 100 jobs could go at Diageo bottling plants in Glasgow and Fife, with plans by the drinks giant to move some packaging to Italy.

      Ministry of Truth

  • Republicofscotland

    More like incoherent babble, a result of watching to many Krishnmurti videos. 😀

    Habby boy will be on deployment, left, right, left right, attenshun!!!!!!

  • RobG

    The latest ‘terrorist attack’ in France is all complete bullshit, which by funny coincidence has happened just before the first round of the presidential election.

    Jean-Luc Mélenchon should walk this, against a back-drop of neocon puppets and extreme right loons.

    But let’s see what happens on Sunday.

    • JOML

      Hi RobG, it does seem very odd that the dead individual had the freedom to carry out the killing, given his previous. Predictable border scaremongering from Le Pen, despite the ‘twerrorist’ being French.

    • Herbie

      Funny innit.

      The handover of power from one elite servant to the next, is now becoming an immensely messy business. US, UK and France, and a few others in the Western empire are showing what’s up their sleeves rather more than in the past.

      Either elites are slipping, or they’re having to create more inventive illusions now that peeps aren’t restricted to tellycrap for their info.

      I suppose their old Left/Right gig can no longer hide the reality.

      Now.

      It’s peeps versus bankers and corporates.

      In Britain that’s Corbyn. In France, it’s probably Le Pen. Fillon, whilst sounding like a nice Catholic Conservative, is a neoliberal servant, so that’s no good.

      The Left in France, is a joke.

      Still.

      There’s more than one road to Rome.

  • Brianfujisan

    We Know All About the White Helmets.. War Criminal Cunts..

    Now we have this –

    Swedish Doctors for Human Rights say they have found evidence that the chemical attack on Syrian civilians on Tuesday was a ‘false flag’ carried out by the White Helmets.

    The doctors say that videos purporting to show an alleged attack by Syrian government forces are counterfeit, and that the subsequent “rescue” by the Al-Qaeda affiliated White Helmets was actually a covert slaughter of civilians.

    http://yournewswire.com/sweden-white-helmets-gas-attack/

    • Hmmm

      Very informative. Shows just how inane people can be. I bet if you blind tested policies she’d choose Corbyn every time. But she won’t vote Corbyn because the media have told her he’s a joke.

    • Chris Rogers

      Anon1,

      Indeed, and she seems a few pennies short of a pound – must be proud to support Absolutism by way of the Regal May – ‘Fuck democracy and do as you are told,’ the new Tory mantra.

    • Sharp Ears

      This is the Con MP for Swindon.
      ‘He was appointed Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Disabled People following the 2015 general election victory of the Conservative Party, serving until new Prime Minister Theresa May reshuffled the government in 2016. Prior to that he was Parliamentary Private Secretary to Ed Vaizey’.

      ‘Under Secretary of State for Disabled People’. There’s a contradiction in terms. Remember the Tories and their bedroom tax which deprived disabled people of a spare room for their aids and a bed for an overnight carer.

      The Tory PIPs are taking away Motability cars following ATOS ‘assessments’. Can you breathe unaided? Can you walk across this room? to a person without legs. Watch Ken Loach’s marvellous ‘I, Daniel Blake’ for reference. The Tories would take away crutches and wheelchairs if they could, that is unless they were provided for those injured in our offensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

      Also see this for corruption.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Tomlinson#Wonga

      Remember one of Cameron’s crowd, Jonathan Luff, left to work for Wonga?
      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/oct/30/david-cameron-adviser-lobbyist-wonga

      One of the largest stock holders in Wonga, Adrian Beecroft, gave £593k to Cameron for the partei funds. Wonga’s APR was over 4000% at one stage.

      Wonga: The men who made £50million from other people’s cash woes
      http://www.mirror.co.uk/night-copy/wonga-the-men-who-made-50million-830110

    • Sharp Ears

      This is the Con MP for Swindon.
      ‘He was appointed Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Disabled People following the 2015 general election victory of the Conservative Party, serving until new Prime Minister Theresa May reshuffled the government in 2016. Prior to that he was Parliamentary Private Secretary to Ed Vaizey’.

      ‘Under Secretary of State for Disabled People’. There’s a contradiction in terms. Remember the Tories and their bedroom tax which deprived disabled people of a spare room for their aids and a bed for an overnight carer.

      The Tory PIPs are taking away Motability cars following ATOS ‘assessments’. Can you breathe unaided? Can you walk across this room? to a person without legs. Watch Ken Loach’s marvellous ‘I, Daniel Blake’ for reference. The Tories would take away crutches and wheelchairs if they could, that is unless they were provided for those injured in our offensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

      Also see this for corruption.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Tomlinson#Wonga

      Remember one of Cameron’s crowd, Jonathan Luff, left to work for Wonga?
      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/oct/30/david-cameron-adviser-lobbyist-wonga

      One of the largest stock holders in Wonga, Adrian Beecroft, gave £593k to Cameron for the partei funds. Wonga’s APR was over 4000% at one stage.

      Wonga: The men who made £50million from other people’s cash woes
      http://www.mirror.co.uk/night-copy/wonga-the-men-who-made-50million-830110

  • Misha Carder

    So the 2005 BNP manifesto! has been dug up! This so much more sinister than saying this Brexit government has morphed into UKIP – the latter having become a shambolic joke. We need an A4 poster – that can be down-loaded – of the poll-results above. Simple!
    As for the main course being the immigrants quota to be 100.000 – this is a Porkie-Pie -big enough to feed the millions of hungry British. What about NHS, and essential agriculture-workers? Do the sums Theresa and Philip. This is the convenient un-truth. Shameful.

    • giyane

      The election reflects a parallel uncertainty inside the Tory and Labour factions of UK politics.

      On one side of the Tories we have Norman Tebbitt who declared during the Brexit debates that ‘ Continuing to remain in the EU was like giving Germany victory in WW2’. On the other side are hundreds of 1000s of business men and women and their dependant employees who need to belong in the EU.

      On one side of the Left we have people like Corbyn and RobG who in spite of their own affluence cling to the disembowelled entrails of Marxist theory, which is offal , and dead offal, while on the other side of the left we have people who understand that uncaring Capitalism has to squeezed back into its box and caring capitalism has to be re-invented. To them ‘caring’ is the meaning of socialism.

      Over and above those four possible positions in the internal debates, put your hand into the Tombola and pick your allotted opinion depending on what income God has given you, yes over and above them is the certainty that whoever whatever whenever however a UK party is elected to power they have to , will, have no choice but to, must enslave their whole being, body heart and soul with the grindings and dictats of the Zionist minceing machine which require the universal law to be applied, that Islam has to go.

      Whatsoever King shall reign, or face be seen on the national coin, I’ll still be given a job by Fid.Def. the Judaeo-Christian Supremacy Dictatoriat of the USUKIS. Bollocks to your pollocks, plus cha change , plus ch’a sera toujours la fucking meme chose.

  • Alcyone

    Tony Blair refuses to keep his head under the parapet.

    “CHILCOT INQUIRY – ANSWER FOR IRAQ”
    Update and New Fundraising Effort
    Feb. 12, 2017
    Dear Friends and Supporters.

    We need your help in our final push to determine whether legal action can be started against those responsible for sending our loved ones to fight and die in an unjust and unnecessary war.

    We need to raise a final £22,000 to add additional expert counsel to our legal team to consider significant constitutional issues. We are writing to you, our 5148 backers, to …

    Read More >> https://www.crowdjustice.org/case/chilcot/
    ________
    Please read the full letter at the link. Unlike some commenters I don’t want to shove it up your nose and face, in deference to your own interests. But just hearing the name of Tony Blair, particularly in the context of Iraq, hopefully brings people and the country together. Relatively small target to achieve next. Please spread awareness. This is about the effectiveness of modern democracy. Underscore that technology is one area where man has made progress over the centuries. It is a double-edged sword, for the other side of the same coin are our killing machines. So it becomes all the more important to be weary of the people you elect and put in charge. The pure, undiluted Evil of Blair must be dealt with.

    We can never wipe the brutal false-start of the 21st century and the 3rd millennium clean, but we can formally investigate the actions of Blair in, as The Times called, his Personal War.

  • Bayard

    “No, Brexiteers want to cut immigration simply because they are racists and do not like foreigners.”

    Not liking foreigners doesn’t make you a racist and anyone with even a partial grasp of English should know that. A racist is someone who considers people of another race (i.e. genetically slightly different) inferior. Many foreigners are racially indistinguishable from the inhabitants of the country to which they are foreign. Nor does disliking someone necessarily involve considering them racially inferior. The correct word to use in this instance is “xenophobic”, but that doesn’t have the same dog-whistle connotations as “racist”.

    In any case, to be considered a “foreigner” in many parts of England, and probably also in many parts of Scotland, you don’t have to come from another country, you just have to come from another part of the same country. Where’s the racism in that?

  • michael norton

    he SNP’s national executive has ruled not to endorse two sitting MPs as candidates in the general election.

    Michelle Thomson and Natalie McGarry, who were elected as SNP MPs but now sit as independent members, were told by the party’s ruling body that they would not be selected.

    Ms Thomson withdrew from the SNP whip last year amid an ongoing police investigation into property deals.

    She said she was “very disappointed with the decision”.

    And the Edinburgh West MP confirmed that “after careful consideration” she had decided not to put herself forward for election.

    • glenn_uk

      If you’re going to lift stuff from the BBC’s website like this:

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39678794

      You should attribute it as such.

      What gave it away, incidentally, was the correct use of English – instead of your barely literate approach. For instance, “SNP’s national executive” was in your quote. You would have put “S.N.P.s’.” or somesuch.

      Why do you put SNP, BBC and MP as “S.N.P. / B.B.C. / M.P.” by the way? They don’t get abbreviated with punctuation like that in English.

      Hope this helps 😉

      • michael norton

        The only “S. N. P.” M.P.’s to vote against an unexpected General Election were
        Natalie McGarry (Independent – Glasgow East)

        Michelle Thomson (Independent – Edinburgh West)

        these are the pair who will not be selected to run for the S. N. P.

        • glenn_uk

          I take it you’re unconcerned with

          (a) your very poor use of English (and you will not accept the correct manner of use, even when it’s pointed out to you); and

          (b) plagiarising material which you will pass off as your own thoughts.

        • michael norton

          Perhaps this pair voted against the upcoming General Election because they knew
          at once their days were as toast bit like Francois Hollande did not throw his bicorne into the fetis ring.

  • Dave Lawton

    The old realty structure is collapsing and there is little the Elite can do about it.

    “The fact that “sovereignism” is growing in Europe is interpreted by mainstream globalist media as proof that “Europe is moving to the right”– no doubt because Europeans are “racist”. This interpretation is biased and dangerous. People in more and more European nations are calling for national sovereignty precisely because they have lost it. They lost it to the European Union, and they want it back.
    That is why the British voted to leave the European Union.Not because they are “racist”, but primarily because they cherish their historic tradition of self-rule.”
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/04/21/the-main-issue-in-the-french-presidential-election-national-sovereignty/

    • michael norton

      Dave, nicely addressed.

      It seems to me to be “strange” to call people racist, when many of us are of the same race.
      I’ve even heard eminent doctors saying there is no such thing as race.
      Some are even suggesting that Homo sapiens sapiens
      and Homo sapiens neaderthalensis are the same species but could be considered a different race.

      So why is the old hat term racist flung so quickly and so often?
      Perhaps it says more about the flinger?

  • Dave

    People normally vote for the status quo with a cherry on top and that’s why Remain was expected to win the EU referendum. But following Brexit, the status quo now favours Remaining outside the EU and the figures you provide confirm that. The majority now favours as we are and wants the government, despite reservations to deliver Brexit!

    If the term “racism” is loosely applied to mean opposition to open door immigration then it applies to us all, because I doubt any blogger here l(or beyond) leaves their door open when they go out, even those with a “refugees welcome here” sign in the window. I.e we all operate “front door” immigration controls!

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