What if Trump’s apparently chaotic thought processes and intuitive decision making are all a blind, a charade? What if we are really witnessing, in the Middle East and more widely, a carefully constructed plan with very definite objectives? Has Trump in fact “planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway”, while flinging the chaff of apparent chaos? I realise that this is not intuitive, but bear with me…
What kicked off my thinking was the revelation by Lockheed Martin that they had been instructed by Trump, months in advance of the attack on Iran, to massively increase production of interceptor missiles, with a short term goal of quadrupling capacity of THAAD. In January, before the start of the current conflict, Fox News was already reporting on various deals, including a trebling of PAC3 MSE interceptor deliveries, having been finalised between Lockheed and the Department of War.
While obviously there are supply chain and production line constraints on the ability to ramp up production within months, the urgency of this activity – almost entirely focused on interceptor missiles – that started in 2025 is in hindsight a clear indication that early war with Iran was expected. It is plain evidence of premeditation.
The second thing that triggered my thought that this is all carefully planned, is the nature of the breakdown of the nuclear deal talks. It appears there was a broad consensus that Iran offered concessions which made a deal very practical, in particular giving up its stocks of enriched uranium into trust (a proposal Iran had historically rejected when Putin offered to hold the material). Both the hosts, Oman and the British thought a deal was there.
The failure of the talks is being spun as due to the incompetence and lack of technical knowledge of Witkoff and Kushner. But I just don’t buy this. The sending of unqualified negotiators was part of a ploy to use the negotiations as cover for an attack – the second time in a year that the United States had pulled the same trick.
They didn’t need competent negotiators, because they had never intended a good faith negotiation.
The attack on Iran was always planned by Trump. He was not “bounced into it” by Israel. It had been in gestation for months. That fact had been held within a very tight circle to avoid both political opposition and institutional opposition from the US military and intelligence community.
January’s protests in Iran found ordinary people genuinely ready to protest, motivated by economic hardship caused by sanctions. But they were guided and abused by Mossad and CIA agents among the Iranian people, who committed and encouraged violence and initiated pro-Shah chanting.
There was never the slightest possibility the protests would bring regime change, but that was not the intention. The purpose was to incite an over-reaction by the Iranian government that could “justify” the planned attack on Iran. The dead protestors have been great martyrs for Trump’s – and Israel’s – wider cause.
The planting by Western state-sponsored individuals and organisations of ludicrous claims throughout Western state and corporate media of thirty to forty thousand killed, was a deliberate and considered plan to reduce domestic opposition in the West to the forthcoming war against Iran.
Now factor in another apparently random act by Trump – the astonishing kidnapping of President Maduro of Venezuela on 3 January, a month before the attack on Iran.
Trump’s naval blockade of Venezuela’s oil has secured a US monopoly of its sale and distribution. As with Iraq, only US-approved contractors can buy the oil and payments are made to a Trump-controlled account in Qatar, from which revenue is given to the Venezuelan government entirely at Trump’s discretion.
This audacious imperialist grab of the world’s largest oil reserve further insulated the USA against the effects of the forthcoming closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Again, the narrative is being spun that Trump did not foresee the closure of the Strait by Iran. That is plainly a nonsense – every commentary on a potential Iran war for half a century has focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The only possible explanation is that Trump does not mind the closure.
While, as Trump says, the United States does not need the oil that comes through the Strait, the apparent weakness in his case is that higher oil prices are universal and hit Trump’s support, particularly as Americans fill their Gas tanks. But to concentrate on this is to make the fundamental error of imagining that Trump cares about what is good for the American people. He does not. He cares about what is good for Donald J. Trump and his immediate circle.
Here is the Chevron share price over the last month:
And here is Lockheed Martin. Note that the start of the 40% leap in share price coincides with those instructions last year on massively ramping up interceptor production.
Not to mention, of course, that the really big fortunes will have been made in oil and derivative commodity futures by those who knew this war was coming (acting through proxies).
The $200 billion Trump is requesting from Congress to continue the war is going to make an awful lot of well-connected people even richer.
So the plan is the making of fortunes, the strengthening of the military-industrial complex and the ratcheting up under cover of national cohesion in war of the authoritarianism that has reduced freedom of speech and outlawed dissent against Israel across the Western world.
To benefit Israel is the other predominant motive.
Trump’s thrashing about to articulate objectives for the war in Iran is performative, a blind to cover his true and steadfast objective – simply the annihilation of Iran as a functioning state, the infliction of the maximum amount of death and infrastructural damage, the reduction of Iran to the condition of Libya.
It goes without saying that the seizure of control of Iran’s hydrocarbons by the US is the ultimate endgame of this destruction, exactly as in Libya and in Iraq. But a linked and crucial objective is the elimination of the source of the only physical resistance to the expansion of Israel. Iran and its allies in Yemen and Lebanon have been the sole support of the Palestinians for years.
The colonial settler state of Israel is central to the projection of imperialist power in the Middle East. Its expansion is an essential part of the plan.
Destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask Congress for an instalment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up in a month. Again, Trump’s taunts about having already won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Netanyahu yesterday revealed an interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.
Which brings us to the Greater Israel side of the project. Israel is not going to put any of its ships or soldiers in harm’s way in Iran – that is the American contribution. But while the world is primarily watching Iran, Israel is starting a large-scale invasion of Lebanon with the aim of annexing all of Southern Lebanon permanently, even beyond the Litani River and including the cities of Tyre and Nabatieh, both currently under Israeli evacuation orders.
This land of course adjoins the annexed Golan Heights and the much larger area of Southern Syria that Israel has annexed in the past year with the acquiescence of Zionist puppet “President” al Jolani.
It is essential not to lose sight of the bipartisan nature of the United States’ long term plan. In a very real sense Trump is continuing – if greatly accelerating – the policy under Biden, who protected and enabled the Genocide in Gaza. The success of this US policy is phenomenal. Just consider that only 18 months ago the Zionist “Presidents” al-Jolani of Syria and Aoun of Lebanon were not in power. Both were brought to power as a result of US-aligned military action, by Israel against Hezbollah and by the CIA- and MI6-sponsored HTS forces. Put in place by Biden, they are now central to Trump’s strategy.
Aoun and al-Jolani are now united in threatening Hezbollah in the rear as it fights a desperate action against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile Israel officially occupies over 60% of the Gaza Strip – under cover of Trump’s “Board of Peace”, and continues to murder, blockade and starve the inhabitants of the remnant, while the de facto expansion of Israel into the West Bank and the levels of settler violence are escalating to levels of the utmost barbarity.
Iranian resistance is noble and Iran’s resilience has surprised many. It will be able to make any ground invasion, or even limited incursion, extremely costly for the United States. But as in Gaza or Lebanon, if the US and Israel are content simply to pound from the air for years with devastating force, and with no concern whatsoever for civilian casualties, ultimately all Iran can do is hang on and try to survive.
Given another year of destruction at the current levels of intensity, I do not believe that Iran would effectively be sending many missiles and drones back in self-defence. In a week or two we will hit the period of maximum Iranian effectiveness, where depletion of US-supplied interceptor missiles coincides with Iran retaining significant strike power. Israel’s fragile civilian morale will then be tested severely for a few weeks.
Iran’s capacity to defend against massive, years-sustained aerial bombardment is limited. We should not blind ourselves to that fact out of current joy at the Americans and Israelis getting a bloody nose.
It is comforting to see Trump as a buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and ill-educated ignoramus, who swings wildly between policy options, and who does not understand the world of geopolitics.
But that is nonsense.
I have no hesitation in characterising Trump’s genius as evil, focused on personal gain and willing to inflict any amount of death, maiming and deprivation on innocent civilians to attain his goals. But he is indeed attaining his goals on the world stage.
Trump has forced the Security Council to underwrite his Board of Peace. This was a quite astonishing diplomatic triumph over a helpless Russia and China, both of which decided that other negotiations with Trump were more important. Trump has presided over Israel expanding on the ground by the day. Trump has taken Venezuela’s oil, the largest reserves in the world. Trump is currently killing people of Iran and destroying their infrastructure, while feigning indecision.
You should hate Trump: but he is no clown.
———————————
My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.
Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.
Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a Patreon account and a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.
Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above
Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:
PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]
Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:
Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address NatWest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB
Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a
Very good article. I have some reservations regarding the Iranian protests. I believe the Americans and Israelis tried to overthrow the Iranian government through these protests but participation was not as expected. They were ready to strike if the protests had spread. They just took the chance as this option was the most economical but had small chances of succeeding.
Jamming Starlink played a major part.
I agree the plan was always to attack Iran – the Zionists using false intel convinced Trump that Iran was going to assassinate him the article is on either MintPress or GrayZone. I cant recall which it is on.
It looks like Trump and Netanyahu were jointly pushing for an attack on Iran, Iran’s assets are the end goal for Trump and his US corporate buddies, Iran looks like its no pushover.
Iran is well armed and has powerful allies -such as Russia and China collecting and sending real-time intel to Tehran.
Trump and Netanyahu have bitten-off more than they can chew with attack on Iran.
Isn’t Trump more the useful idiot, albeit a dangerously powerful one, of scheming Zionists? He regularly blurts out stuff that suggests someone is feeding him utterly false information (Kushner, perhaps?). He apparently doesn’t like to sit through factual intelligence briefings as he finds them boring. His recent claims, among other nonsense, is that Shia (95%) Iran is the global source of terrorism. This, despite Sunni Islam having provided most of the terrorists and terrorism of the last 30-40 years – including those involved in the US’s own 9.11 and most of the sectarian car bombings and gruesome beheadings in Syria, Iraq and Libya. American politicians’ woeful misunderstanding/ignorance of Hezbollah’s historic role in deterring/defending S.Lebanon from Israeli invasions, and the far looser Iran(IRGC) – Hamas relationship, insomuch as there is any, is also infuriating. The U.S. politicians regularly claim is Iran are arming Hamas. How? They aren’t shipping weapons in with Israel policing the waters ; they aren’t flying weapons in and they certainly aren’t trucking them in through Israel proper. Absolute nonsense from U.S. lawmakers and media.
The key question now, is what happens to their plans after the U.S. midterm elections in November, and what damage can he and his administration do between now and then? Seemingly not sated by all his violations of international law and sovereignty, Trump’s already talking about the U.S.simply ‘taking over’ in Cuba. If the ‘blue wave’ materialises – and it may, with Trump having burned his main electoral plus ; that of keeping the U.S. out of costly Middle East wars, then anything could happen. They’ll likely lose the House of Representatives(congress), but the Senate is apparently now also on the line. Iran and Venezuela may need to just wait him out. A lame duck is easier to resist.
If the strategy is indeed as you suggest its very likely to blow up. The war is extremely unpopular in the US which was already fracturing for various other cultural, economic and financial reasons. Given the timing of the mid term elections if Trump can’t terminate this conflict quickly he will lose those badly and be politically impotent. Recent poles show the majority of Americans are now against Israel even if that hasn’t yet filtered through to the political class. Also abroad, with the exception of Israel, the US/Trump has alienated pretty much the rest of the world. That is only going to quickly deepen as he’s blamed for the Gulf oil/gas shock that’s coming, not to mention food supply issues from the loss of fertiliser supply and many other production knock on losses from the reduced amount of oil and more esoteric things like Helium which will soon affect chip manufacturing capability. The most significant financial indicator since the start of the war is that government bond yields in the US and elsewhere have noticeably risen so people/institutions haven’t reallocated into those as as a safe haven. As things deteriorate its entirely possible that rather than in Iran, the regime change will instead be in the US and its quasi-allies like the UK and the US proxies in the middle east.
But that is exactly the point. In the see/saw of the monoparty Democratic charade that is the USA system it does not matter if Trump takes all the blame because the beneficiaries, the democrats will continue with the work anyway. Remember that one of the reasons why the democrats lost the elections was that Biden’s unconditional support for Israel was unpopular and trump was falsely promising world peace.
I appreciate your sobriety and realism in not going along with the trendy, jubilant triumphalism of the anti-israeli camp, though I’m not sure I share it. The Iranians are not idiots, and, as Nasrallah always said, the Zionist entity is ultimately like a cobweb. The entire geopolitical analysst sphere is viewing this as a landmark of terminal american decline. At the same time you have, as others have pointed out, as well the Russia and China factor. Will they allow Iran to fall if it truly gets ugly? Perhaps, though one would hope not.
On the other hand, I have wondered, if they are able to pummel israel and the us so effectively as they seemingly are now, then why on earth did they hold back for so very long before, and why were they so extremely restrained in preventing escalation and delaying the inevitable, and just waiting for a pearl harbour to happen? It seemed insanely dumb unless they weren’t in fact ultimately that confident in the first place. In that regard, perhaps you’re right in your assessment, but time will tell. I hope you aren’t.
It’s called ‘softening up’.
USrael have now expended most of their expensive toys on Iran’s cheap and cheerful decoys. With no functioning Radar systems, Iran can now pick off its targets with minimal risk.
That’s the thinking anyway, time will tell.
re: some military issues
After the June attacks failed it was already clear to most commentators who I saw (Crooke e.g.) that a much bigger war would come sooner or later. I believe this view was confirmed here too.
The blindness of the US is of military nature.
Even though as an outside observer it strikes me as incredibly incompetent the re-scheduled meeting with Xi does make it most likely that US did believe they would have been done with Iran by the end of this month. Just in time for Trump´s China visit.
Whether or not some people at Pentagon did prepare a contingency plan B is unclear.
Also Iran has stated that their own plans for sustaining necessary strike capability as we witness now are well into 2027.
The US at this point in time can produce around 90 THAADS per year.
Considering that their effectiveness is somewhere between 5 -20% (Ted Postol – Andrei Martyanov, as the most honest observers with necessary scientific background although Postol with no access to classified US/ISR data any more) the AD-issue is a no-brainer which US and ISR have conceded internally.
Not without good reason Israel has implemented a complete shutdown of reporting about the inflicted damage.
TOMAHAWKS are extremely limited too.
Larry Johnson I think spoke of 4500 units used by the US since 2015. Which is almost equal to their inventory. So those will eventually run out. Also we know enough cases that these missiles are outdated and have a huge rate of failure or can be shot down more easily than is publicly acknowledged (already in Syria 2018 we had 30% shot down by old AD).
On the 4500 figure see I think early in this video, Johnson with Pascal Lottaz from a week ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yogVg6GFSeQ
Annual production of TOMAHAWKS currently is allegedly 90. When companies tried to increase production recently they ran into various obstacles such as lack of skilled labour. (Larry Wilkerson yesterday with Nima and Larry Johnson.)
https://rumble.com/v77efs4-larry-johnson-and-col.-wilkerson-second-f-35-down-iran-war-spirals-into-dev.html?e9s=src_v1_sa%2Csrc_v3_sa_o%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v
Besides one needs many TOMAHAWKS to destroy a single huge industrial installation. And as by now every layman knows, Iran is about the size of Western Europe.
Another probem is Iranian anti-ship missiles. (Russian missiles could as well be supplied if need to be.)
Currently US vessels are lingering over 600km off the coast for this reason.
There were statements carriers could pull away even further >1000km.
Imagine sorties across that distance every single day. While the supply infrastructure in the region is destroyed by Iran.
This equipment and the ships are made for short term conflict. They are worn out quickly to then get back to bases. Which is probably one reason why a new carrier group was ordered into the theatre.
None of this way seriously weighed in. Joint Chiefs of Staff opposed for this reason. As did NAVY.
While JASSMs seem to be the preferred bomb of US Air Force now Mark Sleboda two weeks ago argued that they would have to eventually settle using JDAMs instead, which are however short-distance and “dumb”.
For that scheme Iran air space would need to be safe – which it probably will not for a long time.
Case in point is the 2nd F-35 taken down by Iran yesterday (most likely they already hit the first one but that managed to land.)
So from the perspective of actual war-making and solving military problems and challenges the US is in way over its head.
And both China and Russia would probably increase support if necessary.
Not to speak of the limited capabilities of IDF. Which is another reason why they turn on Lebanon. It´s easier for Merkavas to kill civilians.
Iran has the capacity to destroy the entire oil production of the ME and NG supply to EU. They also can destroy the foundation of civil society in the region. As suggested above in all this Israel by far is less resilient.
A new TWEET by Shanaka Anslem Perera was hinting at time windows for certain agricultural products which have to be kept in mind, too (the “planting clock”). This may play out as crucial for some markets/traders which have so far been surprisingly calm.
excerpt:
„(…) Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock.
Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible. The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days.(…)“
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2034591985584193828
However if this war would be going on for a whole year the strain on Iran would be our smallest of problems.
For three weeks now we have had media rumours and official statements by the Iranians that Trump in confidence seeks a way out. Which Iran rejected so far.
Also Tulsi Gabbard´s „testimony“ in Congress did not emanate much self-confidence.
Iran will not accept defeat rather destroy economic foundations. Also Iran will not let Israel off the hook.
And then comes the problem with the nukes (what was Modi doing in Tel Aviv just before the attacks started btw?)…and also we got Cuba and Russian tankers with 1962-scenario-potential all over again.
Yes, the USraeli attack on Iran was planned in advance. Here is another interesting article explaining Trump administration’s plan behind it – A PLANNED CRISIS: IRAN, DEBT, THE DIGITAL DOLLAR: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/a-planned-crisis-iran-debt-the-digital?r=25fc37
I would add that Israel may well have co-planned the attack on Iran months in advanced, and Netanyahu may have led Trump in doing it – because like Trump he wants to use it as a distraction from criminal charges at home, and even increase the chance of a pardon for himself, while for Trump international aggression provides suitable distractions from THE EPSTEIN FILES. So these two are partners in crime, both war crimes and “civilian” ones, hoping to stay out of jail.
But they have the disadvantage of living in democracies, where criticising the government doesn’t cost citizens their lives. Even in Israel there are Jews refusing military service and spending time in jail in consequence, brave people. And in the US Trump is trying every trick in the book to rig the mid-terms, for all his false accusations about the election of 2020. Hopefully they will be his Waterloo, and he will be a lame duck thereafter, headed for a third impeachment and possible removal from office. Whether he will attempt to introduce dictatorship remains to be seen, but the biggest “No Kings protest” looks to occur next Saturday (28th), and it is just possible that it may attract over 3.5% of the population, which I understand is a sign of an impending fall of a government, whether democratic or not.
It remains to be seen whether the attempt to send over 2000 marines to the Middle East, possibly even intended as boots on the ground in Iranian territory, will bring Trump’s Teutoburg moment.
“Jews refusing military service and spending time in jail in consequence, brave people. ” Not at all. Any and every member of the IDF (and Israeli citizens, IMO) is a genocidal murderer. Just because they don’t want to be involved in a war where they may be killed doesn’t make them brave, by definition they are scum, and jail is the place for them.
I agree with the basic premiss that these events were planned, but I’m not convinced Trump was doing the planning. After all this is a man who admits he doesn’t read books. Trump is the figurehead, the planning is done in the back rooms and Israel is heavily involved in that – and have been ‘for more than 40 years’ !
“Trump says, the United States does not need the oil that comes through the Strait”, again I believe this is incorrect. Maybe it doesn’t need the oil, but its outsourced suppliers do. So, whilst he may hold down the price of fuel at the pumps, some of the outsourced industries are going to be hurting and that will impact imports: eg. food, medicins, technology.
Trump may not be as stupid as portrayed but intelligence wise he isn’t presidential material.
As to the long term affects of the ‘war’, Iran could easily cripple Israel by attacking its desalination plants. To date it hasn’t !
re: Lebanon + Iran
A recommended podcast by Katie Halper and Aaron Maté from yesterday.
“Interviews with journalist Hala Jaber, joining us from Beirut, and Professor Sami al Arian, with an update on Iran”
I would highlight the first part with the excellent Hala Jaber on Lebanon.
Including short footage about the live attack by IDF jets on RT-journalist Steve Sweeney while reporting.
Al Arian is good too, but mainly confirms my above points in broad brush (“They want regime change. There is no way to achieve that”.)
But he is no military specialist to potentially counter my arguments.
interviews start at TC 7:00
51 min.
https://www.usefulidiotspodcast.com/p/us-iran-failure-accidentally-exposed
Unfortunately, Craig’s line of reasoning strikes me as very plausible. With Tronald, one must look at his actions, not listen to his daily drivel. What Craig says also fits in well with the u.s.’s long-term plans, which aim to optimise the conditions for the war against the final adversary, China.
The question remains, however, as to whether Tronald’s and Netanyahu’s intentions can be realised; the economic basis for this is precarious. One might wonder what role is intended for the landing forces that will soon arrive in the Middle East from Asia and the u.s. itself. Is an operation planned, such as the capture of an offshore island or a coastal strip? If so, one can only hope that the Iranians are sufficiently prepared for it; higher casualty figures among the marines would damage morale at home and throw the entire plan into disarray. There is still a chance that the u.s. will ultimately have to withdraw from the Middle East. For me, that is the definition of an Iranian victory.
The below reminds me of the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi’s, who repeatedly tried (failed so far) at breaching the reactors on Europe’s largest nuclear energy plant the (ZNPP) – Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
“Iranian Atomic Energy Organization:
“The Natanz nuclear facility was attacked again by the U.S. and Israel this morning.
Thanks to precautionary measures, the attack did not result in any leakage of radioactive materials”
The attack on Natanz was carried out by the US using bunker-busting bombs”