What if Trump’s apparently chaotic thought processes and intuitive decision making are all a blind, a charade? What if we are really witnessing, in the Middle East and more widely, a carefully constructed plan with very definite objectives? Has Trump in fact “planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway”, while flinging the chaff of apparent chaos? I realise that this is not intuitive, but bear with me…
What kicked off my thinking was the revelation by Lockheed Martin that they had been instructed by Trump, months in advance of the attack on Iran, to massively increase production of interceptor missiles, with a short term goal of quadrupling capacity of THAAD. In January, before the start of the current conflict, Fox News was already reporting on various deals, including a trebling of PAC3 MSE interceptor deliveries, having been finalised between Lockheed and the Department of War.
While obviously there are supply chain and production line constraints on the ability to ramp up production within months, the urgency of this activity – almost entirely focused on interceptor missiles – that started in 2025 is in hindsight a clear indication that early war with Iran was expected. It is plain evidence of premeditation.
The second thing that triggered my thought that this is all carefully planned, is the nature of the breakdown of the nuclear deal talks. It appears there was a broad consensus that Iran offered concessions which made a deal very practical, in particular giving up its stocks of enriched uranium into trust (a proposal Iran had historically rejected when Putin offered to hold the material). Both the hosts, Oman and the British thought a deal was there.
The failure of the talks is being spun as due to the incompetence and lack of technical knowledge of Witkoff and Kushner. But I just don’t buy this. The sending of unqualified negotiators was part of a ploy to use the negotiations as cover for an attack – the second time in a year that the United States had pulled the same trick.
They didn’t need competent negotiators, because they had never intended a good faith negotiation.
The attack on Iran was always planned by Trump. He was not “bounced into it” by Israel. It had been in gestation for months. That fact had been held within a very tight circle to avoid both political opposition and institutional opposition from the US military and intelligence community.
January’s protests in Iran found ordinary people genuinely ready to protest, motivated by economic hardship caused by sanctions. But they were guided and abused by Mossad and CIA agents among the Iranian people, who committed and encouraged violence and initiated pro-Shah chanting.
There was never the slightest possibility the protests would bring regime change, but that was not the intention. The purpose was to incite an over-reaction by the Iranian government that could “justify” the planned attack on Iran. The dead protestors have been great martyrs for Trump’s – and Israel’s – wider cause.
The planting by Western state-sponsored individuals and organisations of ludicrous claims throughout Western state and corporate media of thirty to forty thousand killed, was a deliberate and considered plan to reduce domestic opposition in the West to the forthcoming war against Iran.
Now factor in another apparently random act by Trump – the astonishing kidnapping of President Maduro of Venezuela on 3 January, a month before the attack on Iran.
Trump’s naval blockade of Venezuela’s oil has secured a US monopoly of its sale and distribution. As with Iraq, only US-approved contractors can buy the oil and payments are made to a Trump-controlled account in Qatar, from which revenue is given to the Venezuelan government entirely at Trump’s discretion.
This audacious imperialist grab of the world’s largest oil reserve further insulated the USA against the effects of the forthcoming closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Again, the narrative is being spun that Trump did not foresee the closure of the Strait by Iran. That is plainly a nonsense – every commentary on a potential Iran war for half a century has focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The only possible explanation is that Trump does not mind the closure.
While, as Trump says, the United States does not need the oil that comes through the Strait, the apparent weakness in his case is that higher oil prices are universal and hit Trump’s support, particularly as Americans fill their gas tanks. But to concentrate on this is to make the fundamental error of imagining that Trump cares about what is good for the American people. He does not. He cares about what is good for Donald J. Trump and his immediate circle.
Here is the Chevron share price over the last month:
And here is Lockheed Martin. Note that the start of the 40% leap in share price coincides with those instructions last year on massively ramping up interceptor production.
Not to mention, of course, that the really big fortunes will have been made in oil and derivative commodity futures by those who knew this war was coming (acting through proxies).
The $200 billion Trump is requesting from Congress to continue the war is going to make an awful lot of well-connected people even richer.
So the plan is the making of fortunes, the strengthening of the military-industrial complex and the ratcheting up under cover of national cohesion in war of the authoritarianism that has reduced freedom of speech and outlawed dissent against Israel across the Western world.
To benefit Israel is the other predominant motive.
Trump’s thrashing about to articulate objectives for the war in Iran is performative, a blind to cover his true and steadfast objective – simply the annihilation of Iran as a functioning state, the infliction of the maximum amount of death and infrastructural damage, the reduction of Iran to the condition of Libya.
It goes without saying that the seizure of control of Iran’s hydrocarbons by the US is the ultimate endgame of this destruction, exactly as in Libya and in Iraq. But a linked and crucial objective is the elimination of the source of the only physical resistance to the expansion of Israel. Iran and its allies in Yemen and Lebanon have been the sole support of the Palestinians for years.
The colonial settler state of Israel is central to the projection of imperialist power in the Middle East. Its expansion is an essential part of the plan.
Destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask Congress for an instalment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up in a month. Again, Trump’s taunts about having already won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Netanyahu yesterday revealed an interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.
Which brings us to the Greater Israel side of the project. Israel is not going to put any of its ships or soldiers in harm’s way in Iran – that is the American contribution. But while the world is primarily watching Iran, Israel is starting a large-scale invasion of Lebanon with the aim of annexing all of Southern Lebanon permanently, even beyond the Litani River and including the cities of Tyre and Nabatieh, both currently under Israeli evacuation orders.
This land of course adjoins the annexed Golan Heights and the much larger area of Southern Syria that Israel has annexed in the past year with the acquiescence of Zionist puppet “President” al-Jolani.
It is essential not to lose sight of the bipartisan nature of the United States’ long term plan. In a very real sense Trump is continuing – if greatly accelerating – the policy under Biden, who protected and enabled the Genocide in Gaza. The success of this US policy is phenomenal. Just consider that only 18 months ago the Zionist “Presidents” al-Jolani of Syria and Aoun of Lebanon were not in power. Both were brought to power as a result of US-aligned military action, by Israel against Hezbollah and by the CIA- and MI6-sponsored HTS forces. Put in place by Biden, they are now central to Trump’s strategy.
Aoun and al-Jolani are now united in threatening Hezbollah in the rear as it fights a desperate action against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile Israel officially occupies over 60% of the Gaza Strip – under cover of Trump’s “Board of Peace”, and continues to murder, blockade and starve the inhabitants of the remnant, while the de facto expansion of Israel into the West Bank and the levels of settler violence are escalating to levels of the utmost barbarity.
Iranian resistance is noble and Iran’s resilience has surprised many. It will be able to make any ground invasion, or even limited incursion, extremely costly for the United States. But as in Gaza or Lebanon, if the US and Israel are content simply to pound from the air for years with devastating force, and with no concern whatsoever for civilian casualties, ultimately all Iran can do is hang on and try to survive.
Given another year of destruction at the current levels of intensity, I do not believe that Iran would effectively be sending many missiles and drones back in self-defence. In a week or two we will hit the period of maximum Iranian effectiveness, where depletion of US-supplied interceptor missiles coincides with Iran retaining significant strike power. Israel’s fragile civilian morale will then be tested severely for a few weeks.
Iran’s capacity to defend against massive, years-sustained aerial bombardment is limited. We should not blind ourselves to that fact out of current joy at the Americans and Israelis getting a bloody nose.
It is comforting to see Trump as a buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and ill-educated ignoramus, who swings wildly between policy options, and who does not understand the world of geopolitics.
But that is nonsense.
I have no hesitation in characterising Trump’s genius as evil, focused on personal gain and willing to inflict any amount of death, maiming and deprivation on innocent civilians to attain his goals. But he is indeed attaining his goals on the world stage.
Trump has forced the Security Council to underwrite his Board of Peace. This was a quite astonishing diplomatic triumph over a helpless Russia and China, both of which decided that other negotiations with Trump were more important. Trump has presided over Israel expanding on the ground by the day. Trump has taken Venezuela’s oil, the largest reserves in the world. Trump is currently killing the people of Iran and destroying their infrastructure, while feigning indecision.
You should hate Trump: but he is no clown.
———————————
My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.
Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.
Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a Patreon account and a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.
Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above
Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:
PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]
Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:
Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address NatWest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB
Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a
A very comprehensive and detailed report, which explains with clarification on Trump’s policies for the war America instituted on the sovereign state of Iran. In simple terms a frightening probability that the end will be a total gain of annexation for Isreal in Natanyhu’s long awaited expansion of Isreal..America and Trump’s quest for monetary policy..Thank-you ..CRAIG MURRAY..
I don’t think it’s possible to understand a political and economic shift of this magnitude by simply focusing on the minutiae of what is currently happening in Iran and the Gulf states. It’s like trying to watch a football match through a drinking straw. What we are experiencing is the end of the petrodollar and the end of historic British influence in the Middle East. I suggest listening to Barbara Boyd and Susan Kokinder at prom.ac who in my opinion have really nailed this.
The Met is dedicate 250 police officers to keep a close eye on Golders Green after the fire.
On wonders if any other section of society would receive this – in the event of a fire, I doubt it.
Or if any other ethnic group would be allowed to patrol the streets with its own police force.
Out of interest, does any non-Jew in Golders Green say the Hatzola volunteers help non-Jews the same way they treat Jews, or is it only Jews who say this?
Brian.
From what Ive read the ambulances are there – so that Jews dont need to share them with the goyim (ie – you and me).
So the answer is no.
What I can tell you is the Charitable Objects filed with the Charity Commission are to benefit the people of North London. It also states the the beneficiaries are “the general public, All mankind.”
What happens in practice may be another thing altogether.
See also the Community Security Service – explicitly, er, supplementing and liaising closely with the UK’s police forces to keep the Jewish community safe.
https://thecss.org/
Can anyone tell me if our Muslim community (10X the size of our Jewish community) has similar protection?
Dean
I’ve only just seen your post re the two missiles. Yes, I was very dubious, and for the obvious reasons, but I did a search re ‘has iran acknowledged that it fired the two missiles at diego garcia’, and some Iranian news site said that it had. But never-the-less I’d be interested to hear your take on it.
“The attack on Iran was always planned by Trump. He was not “bounced into it” by Israel. It had been in gestation for months.”
Non-sequitur. That it was long-planned says nothing about whether or not Trump was bounced into it by Israel. He could have been bounced into it months ago, or it could have been long-gestating yet he was still hesitant… and got bounced into it.
You’ve made a strong statement about the lack of Israel lobby influence without providing any credible evidence. It’s Chomsky all over again.
Indeed. Mearsheimer & Walt are connected with reality in a way that Chomsky was not. For the first phase, the first 40 years or so of the Arab-Israeli conflict there was some sanity, some restraint, because Israel was a massive liability to the USA, its foreign policy and its sane interest in keeping the flow of oil orderly and the US understood that. Why would the US, why does the US need an insane terrorist state to attack – friendly regimes and peoples? That’s not the way imperialism or trade works anywhere else. The original and still the core of the US “support” for Israel has been domestic politics, not some foreign politics fantasy.
Insane Israel has been pressuring President after President for this insane attack on Iran. This pressure finally encountered someone stupid enough to listen. So it is entirely reasonable to put substantial blame and responsibility on Israel. The biggest difficulty writing about it is phrasing things carefully enough not to lend credence to the innumerable anti-semitic and just plain crazy conspiracists out there. Carefully enough that those reacting to the crazies do not lump rational, evidence-attentive criticism and analysis in with them.
The attack on Kharg Island is on its way. Trump wants to secure Iran’s oil depot. Massive troop and ship deployment is moving in from every US region of influence around the world. US ground troops don’t want to go…. The fictional ceasefire, non existent negotiations, and subsequent lowering of oil prices, are focussing on this one location 15 miles from the coast of Iran.
Jake Sullivan – The Iran War, Trump, and U.S. Foreign Policy | The Daily Show 24/03/2026 17.33 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3uGYpPJEGM
Sullivan admits arming Al-Nusra/ISIS
11:55 [Sullivan] Of course, the difference between Libya and Syria is in Libya, we did take military action. In Syria, we didn’t. And in both cases, you ended up–
12:03 [Stewart] Well, we did in Syria. We just didn’t talk about it. We were arming Al-Nusra Front and all those other. They were being armed.
Currently there’s a US aircraft carrier being repaired at Souda Bay in Greece.
“According to Wall Street Journal Europe Now Plays Key Role in the War Against Iran.
In recent weeks, US bombers, drones and warships have been refueled, armed and taken off from bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece.”
Look at the damage to the USS Gerald R Ford’s navigation bridge, zoomed in from photo of it being towed in Crete, so it is legit.
Maybe fire, but look how buckled in it looks. https://x.com/JacX1413254/status/2036511220686103038/photo/1
What damage? How come the glass in the bridge windows is still intact and the paintwork not blackened?
Your thesis is a tempting one, and I may come to a similar conclusion myself. However, it’s at least worth considering that Trump *is* demonstrably a clown; a senile, addled clown, who demonstrably *has* to believe the last person who spoke to him, because his memory and his comprehension are in terminal decline. This would suggest that any complicated strategy we may perceive as being implemented by the US originates with the sycophants who closely surround Trump, excluding any voices of reason from his hearing. Not from the decrepit lunatic himself.
He is – literally – a useful idiot. He doesn’t question the policies he is told to follow because, hypothetically, he is making an emperor’s ransom from playing stock and bond markets which respond instantly to global piracy and apparently insane foreign policy. The insanity is designed to facilitate presidential insider trading. Meanwhile the Israel lobby, the fossil fuel lobby and the local fascists pay their MAGA proxies to whisper helpful scenarios in his carefully guarded but very susceptible ear.
Good to see you’re still in business, Craig, anyway
Reported that the U.S. military top brass aren’t happy with Pete Hegseth’s bloodthirsty boastful rhetoric either. He seems to take sick pleasure glorifying in death and destruction, with his “death from above” boasts. This in a live war, where US service personnel may possibly be captured. Thus it’s very unwise to antagonise and motivate enemy forces. Hegseth is deeply unpopular with the U.S. public too according to a CNN poll I saw ; far more unpopular than Jim Mattis, who was nickname ‘Mad Dog’ but came across as far more sensible when in that role, certainly than the wildman Hegseth.
Bragging serves little purpose beyond making Hegseth look like a sick freak and motivating the enemy. The US have killed a spiritual leader of around 300 million Shia Muslims worldwide remember, for whom revenge and martyrdom are deeply ingrained in their culture. Hegseth doesn’t know how that will play out for him, or Trump + family, possibly long after they leave office. And when all said and done, Iran didn’t do anything to the United States to justify this war; it ‘s an illegal, unprovoked war. Quite where Hegseth and Trump’s hatred and venom for Iran comes from, I don’t know?
Good to see you’re still around Komodo, too!
TY Glenn – it’s mutual!
In the 70s of the last century, there was a kind of oasis in the Middle East, in the Levant. In every sense, both from the side of nature and from the side of the so-called business climate. This place was called Middle Eastern Switzerland. And that place was Lebanon and its capital, Beirut. One of the leading business and financial centers of the planet(!).
And everything was simple – it was a British offshore company and a branch of the City of London. Where, give or take, a quarter of a million Britons lived on a permanent basis.
And then the following happened – the Americans, well, the United States decided to move the British in their influence in the region. And they did. As always, conditions were created when armed conflicts were raging in the region and the British offshore company and the City branch were liquidated for this matter.
Well, guess three times which country was the main focus of the entire performance in the American plan? That’s right, Israel.
It’s been many years. BV has a new British offshore, a new Middle Eastern Switzerland – Dubai! With the same quarter of a million Britons living there permanently. And war again. The actors are still the same – the USA, Britain, and of course, the prime minister of all this – Israel! Okay?
And the little things are to force the aborigines to sell resources for dollars. Everything else is nonsense, conspiracy theory and speculation of amateurs.
As far as I’m aware – the Zionists have postponed murdering another Iranian official for 4 days – to see if talks come about.
“”Israel wanted to assassinate Iran’s Foreign Minister Aragchi and speaker Ghalibaf. It had coordinates of their movements. Pakistan intelligence got the information about Israeli plans.
Pakistan informed US that if Israel kills Abbas Aragchi and Ghalibaf, there will be no one left in Iran to talk to. Iran will be taken over by the hardcore IRGC commanders.
At this, US intervened and stopped Israel from carrying out strikes to eliminate Aragchi and Ghalibaf. ”
– Pakistani official to Reuters”
Iran is getting hit hard now and are obviously in need of good arms/defense systems so why are Russia such a passive and terrible partner to Iran? As I said the other day, Iran sold/sell many powerful drones to Russia, used with success in the Ukraine war and Iran let russian ships sail through Hormuz, why cannot Russia in turn benefit Iran now they need real help? Instead Russia contemplate selling top defense systems to India but they are too scared to sell this system to Iran?
Russia ready to offer India high-precision air defense systems – sources
https://swentr.site/india/636294-russia-offer-india-pantsir-systems/
Iran has signed a deal to buy MANPADs from Russia. The only problems are that deliveries aren’t expected to start until 2027 and Iran is broke and can’t really afford them.
Reportedly, in just the first 4 days of the war, 943 Patriot missiles and 98 THAAD interceptors($15 million each) were fired. At that rate of depletion, though obviously slowing since, the U.S.is likely putting itself in no position to resist any move by China against Taiwan. Hence why the U.S. needs the war it started, over, asap. They are also running out of precision guided munitions, risking becoming reliant on so-called dumb bombs. I don’t think the U.S. is being honest about the damage Iran has inflicted either. The losses likely run into tens of billions with bases damaged/destroyed; ships damaged; drones and planes shot down plus the sheer daily costs of running a large-scale war.
The more Trump claims Iran are ‘desperate’ for a deal. the more I tend to think it a bluff and the U.S. are the ones desperate for a deal – a way out of this fiasco of their own making – Sun Tzu – the art of war : claim the opposite, to confuse opponents.
The Strait of Hormuz oil/gas situation is what’s most politically dangerous however. Trumpflation could be becoming part of the everyday discourse and political lexicon. Thus, Trump has another incentive to push the ‘deal being close’ narrative, with volatile markets ready to push oil ever higher.
The only encouraging sign, is the U.S. public’s opposition to the the idea of the US, alone, sending ground forces the dreaded boots-on-the- ground. America is a country haunted by Vietnam, a war which a younger Trump did all he could to avoid, dodging the draft five-times. And yet, he has the nerve to call NATO allies ‘cowards’ for not wanting to put their ships and crews in harm’s way. The fact Trump’s personal popularity is falling to its lowest levels ever, means It may be the Republican party facing its own existential crisis soon enough.
As for Russia and China, they should certainly be providing Iran with anti-air systems overtly. Helping defend the skies of a country subjected to an unprovoked attack was seen as perfectly legitimate thing to do for Ukraine. So why is not ok for Iran? We’ve since gone as far as providing Ukraine with missiles to attack the Russian mainland, as has the U.S.. Russia could provide the feared P-800 Oniks; a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, which is near useless against Ukraine, but Iran could certainly make use of it . And sophisticated sea mines. It’s not an easy decision for Russia though, in that, the Ukraine war is ongoing and they can’t be seen, not least by oil trading partner China to be deliberately helping push oil prices higher, by helping Iran lock down the Strait.
Goose
March 28, 2026 at 16:20
I doubt if Russia has anti-air systems to spare.
The “anti-Nazi” war on Ukraine isn’t going very well.
China, on the other hand may wish to maintain its petrochemicals supplier.
Craig, excellent piece. Heartening to read, weirdly, as that whole “Dufus Trump was tricked and dragged into a war by Israel” line has been spreading like wildfire in the dissident analysis circles – the otherwise excellent Grayzone being one of the key exponents of it. It’s as if the history of “screw with Iran” over the last 70-80 years hasn’t happened.
Indeed Iran has been preparing a long time, but how do you prepare against a foe that can find 200 billion down the back of the sofa? Or is so barbaric, one of its opening salvos is against a primary school?
Great piece! I’ve been thinking along these lines. I doubt that Trump is an evil genius but rather the public face of a small cohort of monsters that he has gathered together, not unlike the Blinken-Sullivan group that ran the White House in Biden’s stead.
I have no doubt that the monsters intend the annihilation of Iran. I wonder how they account for massive destruction of Israel–just a shrug and a cheer for another heroic Masada coupled with indifference to loss of Jewish life in a place where Jews went to be safe? And I wonder what plans they have to deal with the imminent recession or depression? Will they be able to keep annihilating Iran and successfully blame Iran for all the suffering, or will people finally figure it out that it is Jewish supremacists and DC monsters who are actually the ones to blame for instigating a war of choice that devastated their well being?
. This week is Pesach, the Jewish feast which commemorates the liberation of the Jews from Egyptian servitude. How appropriate, then, to extend our kindest good wishes to the noble folk of Israel as they fulfil G_d’s will for His people, by killing 70,000 of their imprisoned neighbours and reducing Gaza to smoking rubble,denying the survivors aid, starting a war with Iran, and continuing to claim the moral high ground.
Happy Pesach.
Not.
Last couple of days have proved once again that Trump have absolutely no idea what he is up to. There is no goal or aim, just wanton destruction and wanton massacres.
Trump thought this would be a quick and easy war, most likely being fed with heavily doctored israeli disinformation intelligence claiming that Iran would be an easy target. Instead he got bogged down directly and now use obviously deceitful and weak temporary acts, like when he get too much criticism or when the oil prize is getting too high he suddenly claim peace talks on their way… only to backtrack some hours later threatening Iran will be bombed to the “stone age where they belong”. Why would Iran engage in talks with a two-faced moron like this? I mean there is not even one iota of intellectual basis. Trump could have been the peace president he campaigned to be, instead he made a fool of himself directly and is about to lose a significant part of his voter base and tarnishing his already delicate legacy. For what? To please the sociopath Netanyahu.
In the background of his psyche is the sugar rush he got from Venezuela but also most likely the frustration he got from not getting Greenland, instead he took his braggadocio out on Iran.
Speaking on Netanyahu as much as Trump is at fault, as usual the western media and western politicians do not dare to criticize the mastermind of this war: Netanyahu. He should get the ultimate blame!
What about the midterms?
Perhaps Iran did not really had any choice but to accept the 2 week ceasefire but they did get nothing in return. In 2 weeks the death and destruction will go on again. No doubt, (unfortunately) Trump could hail himself the winner by forcing Iran to opening the Hormuz.
And as usual, when there is “calm” at one place, israel set off escalation at another place: Lebanon. Just now I read how israel stuck a funeral.
Pathetic to watch the Lebanese PM today whine about Israel’s, more or less, genocide in Lebanon, that is the same lebanese PM that past couple of months stepped up secret “peace” talks and even normalization talks with Israel. Now we wait for the pathetic Arab regimes to voice their condemnation against israel – as they did, cockily – regarding Iran recently:
Arab League chief urges UN to act against Iran’s reckless attacks
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pP0C_flIS_U
A Google/AI query indicated that to bring about regime change in Iran or force open the Strait of Hormuz, Trump would likely need hundreds of thousands of troops, i.e. many times the 50,000 he has in the Gulf at present, even including the 7000 elite ones joining them currently.
Which raises the question why he tried it at all. Apart from being dragged into it by Netanyahu, perhaps as a distraction from THE EPSTEIN FILES.
What’s more, regarding the aim of destroying Iran’s alleged ambitions to become a nuclear power, Trump’s war is liable to be futile and counter-productive in the long term, as this article explains:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2026/03/09/us-strikes-may-have-turned-iran-from-a-state-with-latent-nuclear-capability-into-one-with-a-nuclear-grievance/
I agree with Craig, but see Trump merely as an actor. The US strategy and Trump have managers who direct him and stay in the background.