What if Trump’s apparently chaotic thought processes and intuitive decision making are all a blind, a charade? What if we are really witnessing, in the Middle East and more widely, a carefully constructed plan with very definite objectives? Has Trump in fact “planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway”, while flinging the chaff of apparent chaos? I realise that this is not intuitive, but bear with me…
What kicked off my thinking was the revelation by Lockheed Martin that they had been instructed by Trump, months in advance of the attack on Iran, to massively increase production of interceptor missiles, with a short term goal of quadrupling capacity of THAAD. In January, before the start of the current conflict, Fox News was already reporting on various deals, including a trebling of PAC3 MSE interceptor deliveries, having been finalised between Lockheed and the Department of War.
While obviously there are supply chain and production line constraints on the ability to ramp up production within months, the urgency of this activity – almost entirely focused on interceptor missiles – that started in 2025 is in hindsight a clear indication that early war with Iran was expected. It is plain evidence of premeditation.
The second thing that triggered my thought that this is all carefully planned, is the nature of the breakdown of the nuclear deal talks. It appears there was a broad consensus that Iran offered concessions which made a deal very practical, in particular giving up its stocks of enriched uranium into trust (a proposal Iran had historically rejected when Putin offered to hold the material). Both the hosts, Oman and the British thought a deal was there.
The failure of the talks is being spun as due to the incompetence and lack of technical knowledge of Witkoff and Kushner. But I just don’t buy this. The sending of unqualified negotiators was part of a ploy to use the negotiations as cover for an attack – the second time in a year that the United States had pulled the same trick.
They didn’t need competent negotiators, because they had never intended a good faith negotiation.
The attack on Iran was always planned by Trump. He was not “bounced into it” by Israel. It had been in gestation for months. That fact had been held within a very tight circle to avoid both political opposition and institutional opposition from the US military and intelligence community.
January’s protests in Iran found ordinary people genuinely ready to protest, motivated by economic hardship caused by sanctions. But they were guided and abused by Mossad and CIA agents among the Iranian people, who committed and encouraged violence and initiated pro-Shah chanting.
There was never the slightest possibility the protests would bring regime change, but that was not the intention. The purpose was to incite an over-reaction by the Iranian government that could “justify” the planned attack on Iran. The dead protestors have been great martyrs for Trump’s – and Israel’s – wider cause.
The planting by Western state-sponsored individuals and organisations of ludicrous claims throughout Western state and corporate media of thirty to forty thousand killed, was a deliberate and considered plan to reduce domestic opposition in the West to the forthcoming war against Iran.
Now factor in another apparently random act by Trump – the astonishing kidnapping of President Maduro of Venezuela on 3 January, a month before the attack on Iran.
Trump’s naval blockade of Venezuela’s oil has secured a US monopoly of its sale and distribution. As with Iraq, only US-approved contractors can buy the oil and payments are made to a Trump-controlled account in Qatar, from which revenue is given to the Venezuelan government entirely at Trump’s discretion.
This audacious imperialist grab of the world’s largest oil reserve further insulated the USA against the effects of the forthcoming closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Again, the narrative is being spun that Trump did not foresee the closure of the Strait by Iran. That is plainly a nonsense – every commentary on a potential Iran war for half a century has focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The only possible explanation is that Trump does not mind the closure.
While, as Trump says, the United States does not need the oil that comes through the Strait, the apparent weakness in his case is that higher oil prices are universal and hit Trump’s support, particularly as Americans fill their gas tanks. But to concentrate on this is to make the fundamental error of imagining that Trump cares about what is good for the American people. He does not. He cares about what is good for Donald J. Trump and his immediate circle.
Here is the Chevron share price over the last month:
And here is Lockheed Martin. Note that the start of the 40% leap in share price coincides with those instructions last year on massively ramping up interceptor production.
Not to mention, of course, that the really big fortunes will have been made in oil and derivative commodity futures by those who knew this war was coming (acting through proxies).
The $200 billion Trump is requesting from Congress to continue the war is going to make an awful lot of well-connected people even richer.
So the plan is the making of fortunes, the strengthening of the military-industrial complex and the ratcheting up under cover of national cohesion in war of the authoritarianism that has reduced freedom of speech and outlawed dissent against Israel across the Western world.
To benefit Israel is the other predominant motive.
Trump’s thrashing about to articulate objectives for the war in Iran is performative, a blind to cover his true and steadfast objective – simply the annihilation of Iran as a functioning state, the infliction of the maximum amount of death and infrastructural damage, the reduction of Iran to the condition of Libya.
It goes without saying that the seizure of control of Iran’s hydrocarbons by the US is the ultimate endgame of this destruction, exactly as in Libya and in Iraq. But a linked and crucial objective is the elimination of the source of the only physical resistance to the expansion of Israel. Iran and its allies in Yemen and Lebanon have been the sole support of the Palestinians for years.
The colonial settler state of Israel is central to the projection of imperialist power in the Middle East. Its expansion is an essential part of the plan.
Destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask Congress for an instalment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up in a month. Again, Trump’s taunts about having already won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Netanyahu yesterday revealed an interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.
Which brings us to the Greater Israel side of the project. Israel is not going to put any of its ships or soldiers in harm’s way in Iran – that is the American contribution. But while the world is primarily watching Iran, Israel is starting a large-scale invasion of Lebanon with the aim of annexing all of Southern Lebanon permanently, even beyond the Litani River and including the cities of Tyre and Nabatieh, both currently under Israeli evacuation orders.
This land of course adjoins the annexed Golan Heights and the much larger area of Southern Syria that Israel has annexed in the past year with the acquiescence of Zionist puppet “President” al-Jolani.
It is essential not to lose sight of the bipartisan nature of the United States’ long term plan. In a very real sense Trump is continuing – if greatly accelerating – the policy under Biden, who protected and enabled the Genocide in Gaza. The success of this US policy is phenomenal. Just consider that only 18 months ago the Zionist “Presidents” al-Jolani of Syria and Aoun of Lebanon were not in power. Both were brought to power as a result of US-aligned military action, by Israel against Hezbollah and by the CIA- and MI6-sponsored HTS forces. Put in place by Biden, they are now central to Trump’s strategy.
Aoun and al-Jolani are now united in threatening Hezbollah in the rear as it fights a desperate action against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile Israel officially occupies over 60% of the Gaza Strip – under cover of Trump’s “Board of Peace”, and continues to murder, blockade and starve the inhabitants of the remnant, while the de facto expansion of Israel into the West Bank and the levels of settler violence are escalating to levels of the utmost barbarity.
Iranian resistance is noble and Iran’s resilience has surprised many. It will be able to make any ground invasion, or even limited incursion, extremely costly for the United States. But as in Gaza or Lebanon, if the US and Israel are content simply to pound from the air for years with devastating force, and with no concern whatsoever for civilian casualties, ultimately all Iran can do is hang on and try to survive.
Given another year of destruction at the current levels of intensity, I do not believe that Iran would effectively be sending many missiles and drones back in self-defence. In a week or two we will hit the period of maximum Iranian effectiveness, where depletion of US-supplied interceptor missiles coincides with Iran retaining significant strike power. Israel’s fragile civilian morale will then be tested severely for a few weeks.
Iran’s capacity to defend against massive, years-sustained aerial bombardment is limited. We should not blind ourselves to that fact out of current joy at the Americans and Israelis getting a bloody nose.
It is comforting to see Trump as a buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and ill-educated ignoramus, who swings wildly between policy options, and who does not understand the world of geopolitics.
But that is nonsense.
I have no hesitation in characterising Trump’s genius as evil, focused on personal gain and willing to inflict any amount of death, maiming and deprivation on innocent civilians to attain his goals. But he is indeed attaining his goals on the world stage.
Trump has forced the Security Council to underwrite his Board of Peace. This was a quite astonishing diplomatic triumph over a helpless Russia and China, both of which decided that other negotiations with Trump were more important. Trump has presided over Israel expanding on the ground by the day. Trump has taken Venezuela’s oil, the largest reserves in the world. Trump is currently killing the people of Iran and destroying their infrastructure, while feigning indecision.
You should hate Trump: but he is no clown.
———————————
My reporting and advocacy work has no source of finance at all other than your contributions to keep us going. We get nothing from any state nor any billionaire.
Anybody is welcome to republish and reuse, including in translation.
Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, I have set up new methods of payment including a Patreon account and a Substack account if you wish to subscribe that way. The content will be the same as you get on this blog. Substack has the advantage of overcoming social media suppression by emailing you direct every time I post. You can if you wish subscribe free to Substack and use the email notifications as a trigger to come for this blog and read the articles for free. I am determined to maintain free access for those who cannot afford a subscription.
Click HERE TO DONATE if you do not see the Donate button above
Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
Choose subscription amount from dropdown box:
PayPal address for one-off donations: [email protected]
Alternatively by bank transfer or standing order:
Account name
MURRAY CJ
Account number 3 2 1 5 0 9 6 2
Sort code 6 0 – 4 0 – 0 5
IBAN GB98NWBK60400532150962
BIC NWBKGB2L
Bank address NatWest, PO Box 414, 38 Strand, London, WC2H 5JB
Bitcoin: bc1q3sdm60rshynxtvfnkhhqjn83vk3e3nyw78cjx9
Ethereum/ERC-20: 0x764a6054783e86C321Cb8208442477d24834861a
Very good article. I have some reservations regarding the Iranian protests. I believe the Americans and Israelis tried to overthrow the Iranian government through these protests but participation was not as expected. They were ready to strike if the protests had spread. They just took the chance as this option was the most economical but had small chances of succeeding.
Jamming Starlink played a major part.
No – the protests were never expected to achieve anything in Iran. They were a psy-op on us – western voters. To get us on board with the idea that a war in Iran could have an endgame, when as Craig explains the goal was always an endless forevere war of continuous bombing of Iran. Much like the endgame of Ukraine was always a huge great chasm of chaos on the boarder of Russia and a stop to the Silk Roads going through – with the advantage of cutting off all European trade with BRICS for ever. That worked perfectly – to the point that US can back away and leave the Europeans to keep digging their own graves.
I agree the plan was always to attack Iran – the Zionists using false intel convinced Trump that Iran was going to assassinate him the article is on either MintPress or GrayZone. I cant recall which it is on.
It looks like Trump and Netanyahu were jointly pushing for an attack on Iran, Iran’s assets are the end goal for Trump and his US corporate buddies, Iran looks like its no pushover.
Iran is well armed and has powerful allies -such as Russia and China collecting and sending real-time intel to Tehran.
Trump and Netanyahu have bitten-off more than they can chew with attack on Iran.
Isn’t Trump more the useful idiot, albeit a dangerously powerful one, of scheming Zionists? He regularly blurts out stuff that suggests someone is feeding him utterly false information (Kushner, perhaps?). He apparently doesn’t like to sit through factual intelligence briefings as he finds them boring. His recent claims, among other nonsense, is that Shia (95%) Iran is the global source of terrorism. This, despite Sunni Islam having provided most of the terrorists and terrorism of the last 30-40 years – including those involved in the US’s own 9.11 and most of the sectarian car bombings and gruesome beheadings in Syria, Iraq and Libya. American politicians’ woeful misunderstanding/ignorance of Hezbollah’s historic role in deterring/defending S.Lebanon from Israeli invasions, and the far looser Iran(IRGC) – Hamas relationship, insomuch as there is any, is also infuriating. The U.S. politicians regularly claim is Iran are arming Hamas. How? They aren’t shipping weapons in with Israel policing the waters ; they aren’t flying weapons in and they certainly aren’t trucking them in through Israel proper. Absolute nonsense from U.S. lawmakers and media.
The key question now, is what happens to their plans after the U.S. midterm elections in November, and what damage can he and his administration do between now and then? Seemingly not sated by all his violations of international law and sovereignty, Trump’s already talking about the U.S.simply ‘taking over’ in Cuba. If the ‘blue wave’ materialises – and it may, with Trump having burned his main electoral plus ; that of keeping the U.S. out of costly Middle East wars, then anything could happen. They’ll likely lose the House of Representatives(congress), but the Senate is apparently now also on the line. Iran and Venezuela may need to just wait him out. A lame duck is easier to resist.
If the strategy is indeed as you suggest its very likely to blow up. The war is extremely unpopular in the US which was already fracturing for various other cultural, economic and financial reasons. Given the timing of the mid term elections if Trump can’t terminate this conflict quickly he will lose those badly and be politically impotent. Recent poles show the majority of Americans are now against Israel even if that hasn’t yet filtered through to the political class. Also abroad, with the exception of Israel, the US/Trump has alienated pretty much the rest of the world. That is only going to quickly deepen as he’s blamed for the Gulf oil/gas shock that’s coming, not to mention food supply issues from the loss of fertiliser supply and many other production knock on losses from the reduced amount of oil and more esoteric things like Helium which will soon affect chip manufacturing capability. The most significant financial indicator since the start of the war is that government bond yields in the US and elsewhere have noticeably risen so people/institutions haven’t reallocated into those as as a safe haven. As things deteriorate its entirely possible that rather than in Iran, the regime change will instead be in the US and its quasi-allies like the UK and the US proxies in the middle east.
But that is exactly the point. In the see/saw of the monoparty Democratic charade that is the USA system it does not matter if Trump takes all the blame because the beneficiaries, the democrats will continue with the work anyway. Remember that one of the reasons why the democrats lost the elections was that Biden’s unconditional support for Israel was unpopular and trump was falsely promising world peace.
Yes, but whether or not the wider political system carries on with the policy, Trump is a narcissist who cares about what happens to himself and his legacy. So why take such a big chance that this would work out quickly and not leave himself exposed and possibly deposed and demonised. He could just have gone straight for an easier target like Cuba to boost his macho image. The world cup is coming up too and this war could be a PR disaster for him.
I appreciate your sobriety and realism in not going along with the trendy, jubilant triumphalism of the anti-israeli camp, though I’m not sure I share it. The Iranians are not idiots, and, as Nasrallah always said, the Zionist entity is ultimately like a cobweb. The entire geopolitical analysst sphere is viewing this as a landmark of terminal american decline. At the same time you have, as others have pointed out, as well the Russia and China factor. Will they allow Iran to fall if it truly gets ugly? Perhaps, though one would hope not.
On the other hand, I have wondered, if they are able to pummel israel and the us so effectively as they seemingly are now, then why on earth did they hold back for so very long before, and why were they so extremely restrained in preventing escalation and delaying the inevitable, and just waiting for a pearl harbour to happen? It seemed insanely dumb unless they weren’t in fact ultimately that confident in the first place. In that regard, perhaps you’re right in your assessment, but time will tell. I hope you aren’t.
It’s called ‘softening up’.
USrael have now expended most of their expensive toys on Iran’s cheap and cheerful decoys. With no functioning Radar systems, Iran can now pick off its targets with minimal risk.
That’s the thinking anyway, time will tell.
Exactly. Much as I respect and admire Mr Murray’s courage, determination, and diplomatic experience, in military and industrial matters I defer to Andre Martyanov, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, Daniel Davis, Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, Lawrence Wilkerson, and Brian Berletic. All of whom agree that the USA simply does not have the industrial infrastructure to ramp up production of missiles and other weapon systems to anything like the levels it would require for even one year of war.
It seems that the USA has already shot its bolt against Iran, except for the vast numbers of “gravity bombs” that have to be dropped from old-fashioned bombers within a few miles of the target. Already in Vietnam 50 years ago, literally dozens of B-52s were shot down by the Soviet missiles of the day. For US bombers to enter Iranian air space today seems almost suicidal. US aircraft carriers have been driven back to 1,000 km from Iran. Meanwhile Israel – which, unlike the Americans, cannot run away – is getting the pounding. The blanket censorship from Israel speaks for itself; in Iran, as far as I know, there is none, with foreign journalists welcome to come and go wherever they please.
Tom Welsh, I agree, Trump advised by two rabid Zionists Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner thought it would be a short couple of days war, they are amateurs and fools, know your enemy is the first rule in war, the Iranians will not capitulate, it is existential for them, I cannot see an off ramp.
The manufacturing point is key, Trump *wanted* to ramp up production. Just like the EU has been blathering about for years.
Trouble is the industrial foundation for such things died on its arse decades ago, before you even factor in supply-chain issues & material shortages.
All this would take years to even begin to solve, just like the issues with Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.
The “industrial foundation” doesn’t matter. The object of the exercise is to 1) boost the share price if the organisations involved and 2) provide a means for transferring billions of dollars from the government to these organisations. Whether any missiles actually get built is neither here nor there. As Craig points out, the objective here is to make Donald J. Trump and his cronies very rich indeed.
” …in military and industrial matters I defer to Andre Martyanov, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, Daniel Davis, Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, Lawrence Wilkerson, and Brian Berletic.”
Well, this post is very much in agreement with one by Brian Berletic a couple of weeks ago, except, as far as I can remember, BB opined that the US was using Israel as a proxy against Iran in the same way as it is using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia.
Cui bono? USA, oil and gas, military industrial complex, real estate. All Trump cronies. They are taking control of world energy. Simples!
Nice little recession (or worse) would be the cherry on the cake, it’s due, 1972 (+18): 1990 (+18): 2008 (+18)…… they will make off like the bandits they are, bloody nose in West Asia, who cares, profits are the name of the game………
re: some military issues
After the June attacks failed it was already clear to most commentators who I saw (Crooke e.g.) that a much bigger war would come sooner or later. I believe this view was confirmed here too.
The blindness of the US is of military nature.
Even though as an outside observer it strikes me as incredibly incompetent the re-scheduled meeting with Xi does make it most likely that US did believe they would have been done with Iran by the end of this month. Just in time for Trump´s China visit.
Whether or not some people at Pentagon did prepare a contingency plan B is unclear.
Also Iran has stated that their own plans for sustaining necessary strike capability as we witness now are well into 2027.
The US at this point in time can produce around 90 THAADS per year.
Considering that their effectiveness is somewhere between 5 -20% (Ted Postol – Andrei Martyanov, as the most honest observers with necessary scientific background although Postol with no access to classified US/ISR data any more) the AD-issue is a no-brainer which US and ISR have conceded internally.
Not without good reason Israel has implemented a complete shutdown of reporting about the inflicted damage.
TOMAHAWKS are extremely limited too.
Larry Johnson I think spoke of 4500 units used by the US since 2015. Which is almost equal to their inventory. So those will eventually run out. Also we know enough cases that these missiles are outdated and have a huge rate of failure or can be shot down more easily than is publicly acknowledged (already in Syria 2018 we had 30% shot down by old AD).
On the 4500 figure see I think early in this video, Johnson with Pascal Lottaz from a week ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yogVg6GFSeQ
Annual production of TOMAHAWKS currently is allegedly 90. When companies tried to increase production recently they ran into various obstacles such as lack of skilled labour. (Larry Wilkerson yesterday with Nima and Larry Johnson.)
https://rumble.com/v77efs4-larry-johnson-and-col.-wilkerson-second-f-35-down-iran-war-spirals-into-dev.html?e9s=src_v1_sa%2Csrc_v3_sa_o%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v
Besides one needs many TOMAHAWKS to destroy a single huge industrial installation. And as by now every layman knows, Iran is about the size of Western Europe.
Another probem is Iranian anti-ship missiles. (Russian missiles could as well be supplied if need to be.)
Currently US vessels are lingering over 600km off the coast for this reason.
There were statements carriers could pull away even further >1000km.
Imagine sorties across that distance every single day. While the supply infrastructure in the region is destroyed by Iran.
This equipment and the ships are made for short term conflict. They are worn out quickly to then get back to bases. Which is probably one reason why a new carrier group was ordered into the theatre.
None of this way seriously weighed in. Joint Chiefs of Staff opposed for this reason. As did NAVY.
While JASSMs seem to be the preferred bomb of US Air Force now Mark Sleboda two weeks ago argued that they would have to eventually settle using JDAMs instead, which are however short-distance and “dumb”.
For that scheme Iran air space would need to be safe – which it probably will not for a long time.
Case in point is the 2nd F-35 taken down by Iran yesterday (most likely they already hit the first one but that managed to land.)
So from the perspective of actual war-making and solving military problems and challenges the US is in way over its head.
And both China and Russia would probably increase support if necessary.
Not to speak of the limited capabilities of IDF. Which is another reason why they turn on Lebanon. It´s easier for Merkavas to kill civilians.
Iran has the capacity to destroy the entire oil production of the ME and NG supply to EU. They also can destroy the foundation of civil society in the region. As suggested above in all this Israel by far is less resilient.
A new TWEET by Shanaka Anslem Perera was hinting at time windows for certain agricultural products which have to be kept in mind, too (the “planting clock”). This may play out as crucial for some markets/traders which have so far been surprisingly calm.
excerpt:
„(…) Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock.
Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible. The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days.(…)“
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2034591985584193828
However if this war would be going on for a whole year the strain on Iran would be our smallest of problems.
For three weeks now we have had media rumours and official statements by the Iranians that Trump in confidence seeks a way out. Which Iran rejected so far.
Also Tulsi Gabbard´s „testimony“ in Congress did not emanate much self-confidence.
Iran will not accept defeat rather destroy economic foundations. Also Iran will not let Israel off the hook.
And then comes the problem with the nukes (what was Modi doing in Tel Aviv just before the attacks started btw?)…and also we got Cuba and Russian tankers with 1962-scenario-potential all over again.
Well if Andrei Martyanov told me it was raining I’d go outside and check. He’s claimed that most of the 100 or so Tomahawks fired into Syria in 2018 had their guidance systems jammed which is simply not possible.
On the other side the number of missiles fired by Iran fell by 90% in the first week, from 426 to 42. Some say this is because Iran is running out of targets but that isn’t really credible. Regardless of how many missiles Iran has left three-quarters of its launchers are reckoned to have been destroyed.
The funny thing is that in my example it is the big bad Russian propagandist who grants US AD much better interception rates (namely 20%) than the other guy, the American dude who actually built the missiles for WWIII, Ted Postol (5%).
Martyanov uses quotes on technical issues. He doesn´t make shit up. His social commentary is a different matter which however doesn´t concern me at all.
The TOMAHAWK performance is a known problem
(after all they are 40 years old, and with the post-Cod War “peace dividend” the US for most of the time missed out to renew its inventory and catch up with developments in military affairs and technology):
1) The now defunct site of: “Colonel W. Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces (The Green Berets). He served in the Department of Defense both as a serving officer and then as a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service for many years.”
This is also the source Martyanov quotes in one of his books.
For the Syria operation in 2018:
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/04/trumps-big-flop-in-syria-by-publius-tacitus.html#more
https://archive.is/28His
“(…)well over 50% of the TLAMs launched by the United States, France and Britain were shot down by air defense systems in Syria;
(…)
The Russians and Syrians were not lying when they claimed to have downed more than 70 of the U.S., UK and French missiles.
I understand the reluctance of the U.S. military leaders to admit the truth about this debacle. It would undermine the confidence of the American people is our supposedly invincible weapon systems and would embarrass and enrage the man child that inhabits the White House. Better to tell him lies and let him believe the fantasy. But this is a very dangerous game. So far the Russians have not pursued significant PR efforts to expose the U.S. lie about the missiles. Maybe they are choosing to keep quiet, like a good poker player, and not tip their hand to the American public. One of these days Trump and company will over bet in trusting the Russians not to punch back (and punch back hard) and the American people will be in for a rude awakening. They will discover that the Russians have a decided advantage over us when it comes to air defense.
A friend of mine who has expertise in these matters wrote me:
`Any air defense engineer with a security clearance that isn’t lying through his teeth will admit that Russia’s air defense technology surpassed us in the 1950’s and we’ve never been able to catch up. The systems they have in place surrounding Moscow make our Patriot 3’s look like fucking nerf guns.´
(…)”
2) MOON OF ALABAMA same incident
“Syria – Pentagon Hides Attack Failure – 70+ Cruise Missiles Shot Down”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/04/syria-pentagon-hides-attack-failure-70-cruise-missiles-shot-down-.html
“(…)The report of the Russian Ministry of Defense quoted below is consistent with the multitude of independent sources quoted above. The Russian briefing (video with English subtitles) was held at noon Damascus time, hours before the Pentagon issued its report. It mentions 103 cruise missiles against eight targets:
` In total, 71 cruise missiles have been intercepted.
…
Four missiles targeted the Damascus International Airport; 12 missiles – the Al-Dumayr airdrome, all the missiles have been shot down.
18 missiles targeted the Blai airdrome, all the missiles shot down.
12 missiles targeted the Shayrat air base, all the missiles shot down. Air bases were not affected by the strike.
Five out of nine missiles were shot down targeting the unoccupied Mazzeh airdrome.
Thirteen out of sixteen missiles were shot down targeting the Homs airdrome. There are no heavy destructions.
In total 30 missiles targeted facilities near Barzah and Jaramana. Seven of them have been shot down.´
(…)
Another Russian military briefing (Ru) (added: English transcript) given today claims the following success numbers for each type of air-defense systems the Syrian army used. It lists the numbers of cruise missiles shot down by each versus the number targeted:
Pantsir – 23 hits with 25 engagements,
Buk-M2 – 24 of 29,
Osa – 5 of 13,
S-125 – 5 of 13,
Strela-10 – 3 of 5,
Kvadrat – 11 of 21,
S-200 – 0 hits with 8 launched missiles.
(…)”
3) Mike Mijatovic from Black Mountain Analysis in 2025:
(can´t find the link sorry)
“(…)the Tomahawk is about 80% marketing and only 20% actual value—a product of the United States’ perfected art of military marketing. Against a peer opponent, it doesn’t perform nearly as impressively as advertised.(…)”
4) On the December 2025 TOMAHAWK attacks in Nigeria several did not detonate:
“Reports Raise Questions After Tomahawk Missiles Fail in Nigeria Strike
OSINT analysts say up to a quarter of U.S. cruise missiles fired under Trump did not detonate, reviving doubts about the weapon’s reliability”
SRI LANKA GUARDIAN
https://slguardian.org/reports-raise-questions-after-tomahawk-missiles-fail-in-nigeria-strike/
5) MOON OF ALABAMA quoting a study by the U.S. Navy Postgraduate School in Monterey.
It also touches on the higher efficiency of hypersponics vs. TOMAHAWKS
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/us-navy-acknowledges-russian-weapon-superiority.html
“(…) `The literature review section describes the manner in which [Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM)] cruise missiles must be launched in salvos as large as 16 missiles to defeat a target with active defense. Due to its exceptional speed, maneuverability, and low flight path, a single hypersonic glide body missile is likely to be able to overcome an active defensive system that could defeat even a salvo attack of TLAMs.
An Arleigh Burke-class destroyer is equipped with 96 TLAMs, or six salvo attacks of 16 missiles each. This means that a vessel equipped with 12 hypersonic missiles can attack as many actively defended targets as two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers firing 16-missile salvos. 12 [All-Up-Rounds (AURs)] was chosen as the highest rating for this attribute because it represents the offensive equivalent of two entire vessels in the scenario where an actively defended target is being attacked.´
(…)
`A Navy fleet planner posits how 1 ship with 12 CPS hypersonic missiles may have the same striking power as 2 Arleigh Burke destroyers with 192 Tomahawks.´(…)”
6) William Schryver on March 11th 2026
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/big-league-war
“(…)The legendary (but old and slow) Tomahawk cruise missiles would be jammed and / or shot down in surprising numbers — or even just malfunction on their own, as did 25% of a recent salvo of a dozen that was fired into Nigeria.(…)”
7) Lee Slusher (former US military intelligence) in January 2025:
https://deepdivewithleeslusher.substack.com/p/the-state-of-western-warcraft?utm_source=publication-search
“(…)Push back hard enough on the arguments of NATO evangelists and one will find, eventually, the sole pillar on which their belief system rests. Such an exchange might begin with their boasting about Tomahawk cruise missiles. By the time these projectiles lazily make their way to their intended targets, and assuming most are not shot down or defeated electronically, Russian missiles—superior in speed, range, and payload—will have already been launched. Some will have already struck, and the others will trail behind them.(…)”
Pears, are you aware of Andrei Martyanov’s qualifications and experience in these matters? If you wish, you might tell us what are your diplomas, degrees, and years of training in the use of missiles and electronic countermeasures.
I worked with computers for 40 years or so, including fixing them, and I find the claims for Russian electronic countermeasures entirely credible. The Chinese probably have similar capabilities, and no doubt Iran does too. We know that the Iranians took control of one of the USA’s most advanced drones some years ago, brought it to a controlled landing, opened it up and reverse engineered its features. That is one reason why today Iran is a world leader in such systems.
Latter point is important too, which MSM handily omit, the Iranian Constitution says it is Islamic AND scientific.
Which somehow totally contradicts the bearish characterisation of the country by the establishment West.
“Well if Andrei Martyanov told me it was raining I’d go outside and check. ”
Go outside and check? Surely you’d be looking at the weather report on the BBC.
“Regardless of how many missiles Iran has left three-quarters of its launchers are reckoned to have been destroyed.”
Ah, another “fact” only believed by the sort of people who believe that kind of “fact”.
> “Surely you’d be looking at the weather report on the BBC”
In all seriousness that´s in fact something contemporaries have gotten used to: They are in a museum in front of the original painting but what they do is stare at the mobile instead looking at a digital tiny image of that very painting and some expert telling you what to think about it.
That is understandable on the one hand (“knowledge society” and what not) on the other hand it´s a symptom which has to do with political economy (time, time, time, who has time), not genuine knowledge. And gathering of such.
p.s. A childish joke I learned in Ireland as a visiting high schooler:
Tourist sees Irishman has a hole in his roof:
“Why don´t you fix that?”
“No need. It´s sunny outside.”
“But what if it´s raining?”
“You expect me to go outside and fix the roof while it´s raining?”
Indeed, my grandmother said that she had been offered that very excuse by a local builder in Ireland as to why he hadn’t come to fix a leak in the roof of their house.
Yes, the USraeli attack on Iran was planned in advance. Here is another interesting article explaining Trump administration’s plan behind it – A PLANNED CRISIS: IRAN, DEBT, THE DIGITAL DOLLAR: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/a-planned-crisis-iran-debt-the-digital?r=25fc37
I would add that Israel may well have co-planned the attack on Iran months in advanced, and Netanyahu may have led Trump in doing it – because like Trump he wants to use it as a distraction from criminal charges at home, and even increase the chance of a pardon for himself, while for Trump international aggression provides suitable distractions from THE EPSTEIN FILES. So these two are partners in crime, both war crimes and “civilian” ones, hoping to stay out of jail.
But they have the disadvantage of living in democracies, where criticising the government doesn’t cost citizens their lives. Even in Israel there are Jews refusing military service and spending time in jail in consequence, brave people. And in the US Trump is trying every trick in the book to rig the mid-terms, for all his false accusations about the election of 2020. Hopefully they will be his Waterloo, and he will be a lame duck thereafter, headed for a third impeachment and possible removal from office. Whether he will attempt to introduce dictatorship remains to be seen, but the biggest “No Kings protest” looks to occur next Saturday (28th), and it is just possible that it may attract over 3.5% of the population, which I understand is a sign of an impending fall of a government, whether democratic or not.
It remains to be seen whether the attempt to send over 2000 marines to the Middle East, possibly even intended as boots on the ground in Iranian territory, will bring Trump’s Teutoburg moment.
“Jews refusing military service and spending time in jail in consequence, brave people. ” Not at all. Any and every member of the IDF (and Israeli citizens, IMO) is a genocidal murderer. Just because they don’t want to be involved in a war where they may be killed doesn’t make them brave, by definition they are scum, and jail is the place for them.
That rather depends on whether they have been refusing military service since they were of an age to be called up (i.e. out of principle), or have only started doing it since the danger of getting killed has become real (i.e. out of a desire for self-preservation).
Israeli citizens are part of the occupation, principles don’t come into it. If they had principles they would have left occupied Palestine at the first opportunity.
correction to self (M.J.) March 21, 2026 at 15:31
‘advanced’ -> ‘advance’
I agree with the basic premiss that these events were planned, but I’m not convinced Trump was doing the planning. After all this is a man who admits he doesn’t read books. Trump is the figurehead, the planning is done in the back rooms and Israel is heavily involved in that – and have been ‘for more than 40 years’ !
“Trump says, the United States does not need the oil that comes through the Strait”, again I believe this is incorrect. Maybe it doesn’t need the oil, but its outsourced suppliers do. So, whilst he may hold down the price of fuel at the pumps, some of the outsourced industries are going to be hurting and that will impact imports: eg. food, medicins, technology.
Trump may not be as stupid as portrayed but intelligence wise he isn’t presidential material.
As to the long term affects of the ‘war’, Iran could easily cripple Israel by attacking its desalination plants. To date it hasn’t !
I agree, there’s nothing in Craig’s post that doesn’t fit with Trump being a selfish, shallow, vain, stupid narcissist, being led by the nose by a bunch of evil financiers. He doesn’t have to do any thinking, he just has to agree with the thinking done by others and not care about the consequences, except as they impinge on him and his circle, or as far as he is told about where they impinge.
It doesn’t actually make much difference if Trump really knows what’s going on and is just playing a role, or whether he believes the bullshit fed to him by his advisors and his vanity won’t allow him to think he is being misled, the end result is the same.
re: Lebanon + Iran
A recommended podcast by Katie Halper and Aaron Maté from yesterday.
“Interviews with journalist Hala Jaber, joining us from Beirut, and Professor Sami al Arian, with an update on Iran”
I would highlight the first part with the excellent Hala Jaber on Lebanon.
Including short footage about the live attack by IDF jets on RT-journalist Steve Sweeney while reporting.
Al Arian is good too, but mainly confirms my above points in broad brush (“They want regime change. There is no way to achieve that”.)
But he is no military specialist to potentially counter my arguments.
interviews start at TC 7:00
51 min.
https://www.usefulidiotspodcast.com/p/us-iran-failure-accidentally-exposed
Unfortunately, Craig’s line of reasoning strikes me as very plausible. With Tronald, one must look at his actions, not listen to his daily drivel. What Craig says also fits in well with the u.s.’s long-term plans, which aim to optimise the conditions for the war against the final adversary, China.
The question remains, however, as to whether Tronald’s and Netanyahu’s intentions can be realised; the economic basis for this is precarious. One might wonder what role is intended for the landing forces that will soon arrive in the Middle East from Asia and the u.s. itself. Is an operation planned, such as the capture of an offshore island or a coastal strip? If so, one can only hope that the Iranians are sufficiently prepared for it; higher casualty figures among the marines would damage morale at home and throw the entire plan into disarray. There is still a chance that the u.s. will ultimately have to withdraw from the Middle East. For me, that is the definition of an Iranian victory.
Pnyx, with regards the Marines in transit, currently aboard 3 ships there is some chatter that suggests their final destination may well be Lebanon to support the invasion by the IDF. Of course time will tell. Imho an attack on Iranian territory or assets with such a relatively tiny force would be a suicidal gesture.
The below reminds me of the Ukrainian Neo-Nazi’s, who repeatedly tried (failed so far) at breaching the reactors on Europe’s largest nuclear energy plant the (ZNPP) – Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
“Iranian Atomic Energy Organization:
“The Natanz nuclear facility was attacked again by the U.S. and Israel this morning.
Thanks to precautionary measures, the attack did not result in any leakage of radioactive materials”
The attack on Natanz was carried out by the US using bunker-busting bombs”
Republicofscotland
March 21, 2026 at 16:43
“Ukrainian Neo-Nazi’s, who repeatedly tried (failed so far) at breaching the reactors on Europe’s largest nuclear energy plant.”
Jeez Ros, what are you like?
A half million or more “Neo-Nazis” according to you?
Desperate to “breach the reactors” on a Ukrainian nuclear power plant?
The rotters.
Maybe if the Russkiy invaders fvcked off back to Russland the (Ukrainian) power plant would be safe?
Two- wrongs don’t make a right, (with strikes on nuclear facilities) but Iran targeted the Zio-Squatters Dimona nuclear plant in retaliations to Zio-Squatters and the Yanks targeting a nuclear power plant in Iran.
Zio-Nazi’s Ukie Nazi’s all the same.
“A half million or more “Neo-Nazis” according to you?”
Why half a million? I know there are lots of Ukranian government officials feeding off the trough of corruption that is the Russo-Ukraine war, but there are not that many of them. Think of the cost in golden toilets alone!
“I dislike arguments of any kind. They are always vulgar and often convincing.” Damn you! 🙂
I shall have to think some more about this. I do accept that there is method in Trump’s madness. But it doesn’t follow from that that the method is of Trump’s own devising.
There are plenty of ruthless, calculating, and brazenly dishonest politicians, and there is even at least one ruthless, calculating, and brazenly dishonest politician who comes across as a clown – namely Boris Johnson. But Johnson, even in his “clown” persona, doesn’t seem as downright deluded, incoherent, rambling and insane as Trump. That personality can’t possibly just be an act. Whereas Hamlet (the subject of the quote about method and madness) may not have been merely feigning madness, as he pretended to others and to himself, I’d say that Trump definitely isn’t merely feigning.
So it all comes down to the question of how Trump is controlled. After all, it’s not exactly a new thought that US presidents are mere figureheads, with little real power. While there is admittedly something different – horribly different – about Trump’s regime, it may just be that the real powers are able to exploit this lunatic figurehead to pursue their aims in a more extreme way; and those aims are, as they always were, insane and inhuman.
That madness should not be confused with Trump’s own individual madness. It is a calculating, “rational” madness (by Western standards of “rationality”), and it is valuable to observe that cold, calculating rationality, and not to be distracted by its obvious aspect of insanity. That may, in a way, be what you are doing in this excellent article. But to make it seem as if it is all about Trump is itself a distraction.
As many have observed, the mask of the Western powers (in which one must include Israel, much as they are included in Eurovision!) has slipped. In Trump’s individual case, the individual mask that he wears may or may not have eaten the individual face that wears it. You present a very plausible argument that it has not, i.e., that Trump knows exactly what he is doing. I still believe that he doesn’t know, but you have caused me to doubt what I had thought was obvious. (Incidentally, I was similarly baffled by Tony Blair – I never could work out whether he believed his own lies or not.)
But the truth of the individual matter, whatever it is (and you’ve opened my mind on that subject a bit), is almost irrelevant compared to the systematic matter of the real power that lies behind the mask, and that lies through it.
I don’t at all dispute your conclusion that “the plan is the making of fortunes, the strengthening of the military-industrial complex and the ratcheting up under cover of national cohesion in war of the authoritarianism that has reduced freedom of speech and outlawed dissent against Israel across the Western world.” I only dispute the idea that the plan is of Trump’s making. Surely not?
(Excuse if if I’ve rambled too much! I usually defer to the many much more experienced and knowledgable commenters here, which is wise, because I’m not much saner than Trump – if at all.) 🙂
“I only dispute the idea that the plan is of Trump’s making. Surely not?”
I think you are right here, if only because the plan predates Trump by decades. Here, Brian Berletic points out that the trajectory of US foreign policy in West Asia closely follows the 2009 Brookings Institute paper, “Which Path To Persia”
https://singjupost.com/brian-berletic-iran-war-a-gateway-to-war-with-china-russia-transcript/
The iranians have started targeting banks in the Gulf states. I realize that the banks will have back ups online, but a couple drones into your headquarteres will probably disrupt the smooth flow of funds to Trump’s coffers.
It is really worth having a look at the work of Brian Berletic of TheAltWorld and who is also on YouTube.To summarise his thesis: It’s a plan to isolate China, the peer competitor to the US, from fossil fuel energy and stop or reverse its rise to dominance. This is a plan that was put into effect nearly twenty years ago, almost certainly earlier. Brian Berletic quotes extensively from a Brooking Institute report ‘Which path to Persia?’ published in 2009 (!) which details almost very aspect of what we have witnessed over the past couple of decades. The US has knocked out all the countries could have blocked air corridors to Iran so allowing them to bomb at will. These are, of course and in particular, Iraq and Syria, both of which are failed states thanks to the US involvement either directly (Iraq) or indirectly in Syria where they fomented, and funded, the civil war and subsequent overthrow of the Syrian government. They have also stopped Venezuelan oil exports to China very recently with the decapitation of the government there. The US has also overthrown or turned into chaos (usually using proxies) all the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea (Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, but has given up with the Houties, noteably), with the goal of having complete control of the vital sea lanes for oil export. It has started a proxy war in the Ukraine to allow it, through proxies, to target Russian oil assets, to further weaken China’s (and Russia’s) access to fossil fuels. If and when it does overthrow Iran, Russia is probably next. Israel is a proxy, like the Ukraine, which will absorb nearly all the pain of the conflict, and then will be left to form Greater Israel. As such, damaging the gas fields of the Middle East works to the advantage of the US, which, at present ( I emphasise at present) is pretty much energy independent thanks to shale oil, and so is not affected in terms of physical supply, but is subject to the price rises. The rest of the world can be drip fed a limited supply to prevent complete collapse.
It is important to realise the long term nature of this project, and how it is linked to other conflicts in the world. This has been consistent US policy from the the early 2000’s and after 9/11. It has merely been passed from one incoming US administration to the next, regardless of the label that they assume (Republican or Democrat), each one going that bit further along the route to reasserting global supremacy.
It has nothing really to do with Trump, as such, he is mearly the latest figurehead to provide cover for this ongoing project, and I have to say, he is providing that cover remarkably well! It is a real mistake to believe that there will be any change in course provided by a different administration. They may tweak domestic policy here and there, but there will be a seamless adoption of the foreign policy. The US is run by very powerful corporate and financial interests, not by elected politicians. Frank Zappa famously said ‘Government is the Entertainment division of the military-industrial complex’. Never was there a truer aphorism.
Many analysts are now coming to something of a consensus on this being the underlying cause of the current war. It is certainly logically consistent enough to be entirely believable. It is important to try and look at the situation without emotion, because, if one does, the sheer grotesqueness of it all make one feel physically sick. But this is how empires, particularly declining empires, behave, and they are very, very dangerous. The US is behaving in such an extreme fashion because it knows it is running out of time.
I just felt I just had to get that off my chest! Thanks to Craig for all your great work!
“Former ambassador for the UK Chris Murray is onto something”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/war-on-iran-longer-range-missiles-threats-fake-oil-release-murray-seeing-trump-clearly.html
Any relation ? 😉
Of course Trump is no fool, and of course he follows on in a long tradition of US Presidents smashing up ME for Isarel.
Wesley Clarke made that clear – Seven Muslim countries in 5 years and with Syria completed under Biden, only Iran remained.
The decline of US has been going on 2 or 3 decades and the ever more open and unapologetic form of aggression has emerged gradually over that period. Time was when huge efforts went into faking WMD and it took 9/11 to trigger war. Not now.
The decision for the March attack seems to have been made in December when Netanyahu visited Trump but appeared to leave unhappy. As according to the apparent plan he shoud have done.
Tripling interceptor missiles though will make little or no difference to the US abiity to defend its many positions in ME – they use them up so fast and had so few to begin with – even before Ukraine grabbed a lot.
Trump can say what he likes as long as he does the dirty work of the boss class.
You mean the zionist Jews ? 🙂
But interestingly, the blowback also seems either somewhat planned or else very unexpected. The UK almost immediately broke ranks from the US on the Iran attacks, as did many British mainstream news columnists, and the Commonwealth nations and wider Europe. Given how servile our politicians and journalists usually are to US foreign policy, and in the process the Foreign Office and security services, I don’t believe that could have been spontaneous. I always suspected that Trump was the pantomime horse fronting this long-planned act of brutal plunder by the United States military-industrial complex, rather as Boris Johnson was the appointed clown fronting our authoritarian covid lockdowns. If so then Trump’s ‘humiliating failure’ was in a way part of the operation. Nevertheless, whatever planning there was, there seems to be some kind of retreat underway, and the only issue now seems to be what level of failure the Iran war was for the United States and Israel. You can always be sure with both of these nations that they are wildly overestimating their ‘success’ in public, and that the failure will come out much more slowly.
Tom, you shouldn’t confuse what they say and what the MSM reports with what they actually do.
There has been no let up in UK support for USraels genocide or illegal attack on Iran. It’s a game and Starmer is USraels man.
Tom, I wouldn’t be surprised if the UK’s response was purely performative with a feigned deniability, distancing or reputational management going on. Starmer’s No.1 loyalty is obviously not to Britain, whether that’s Davos or his Zionist masters, I suppose is a moot point. Behind the scenes; actions speak louder than words and the US still has free rein over using their bases here to prosecute the War, and the Cypriot SBTs (Sovereign Base Territories).
There’s a good point in assuming that what has happened is what the Seppoes wanted to happen but underestimated the Iranians as they did the Russians in 2022. What happens next is that the Seppoes won’t be able to suppress the effects of the war on the world economy for much longer. I’m rather looking forward to the possibility that the imperial economy is going to go phut!
Yes, the prospects for Schadenfreude are unparalleled – until the roof falls in on all of us. A global economy can be used either to enrich everyone, or for any small group to hold the rest of the world to ransom. Not both.
Trump has lost his mind, he has two battle carrier groups 1000 kilometers outside the range of Iranian missiles, [a sensible military decision] yet at the same time he wants European and other navies to most assuredly be sunk by attempting such a suicidal mission. The Iranians were surely trolling when an Iranian Commander told affected countries they would give free transit to any tanker accompanied by a warship who dared take the challenge.
Trump told Israel’s Channel 14 the quiet part out loud: countries that buy oil through the Strait of Hormuz should secure it themselves — not America.
“We will help them, but it is they who buy all the oil. The USA gets nothing from this strait.”
Donald Trump has called for “about seven” countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
“The US president warned NATO that the bloc faces a “very bad future” if allies refuse to help the US open up the maritime choke point which has been under Iranian control since the war began”. [The Independent].
A US Admiral Hugo First on board his command vessel cowering somewhere in the Indian ocean agrees with Trump. /S
Pepe Escobar has an excellent article here, after describing the Iranian unstoppable ballistic missiles, he describes Israels other Achilles heels…
The Doctrine of Four Vital Organs.
Israel’s 9 million people survive thanks to only two primary deep-water ports. That has led Tehran to move to Structural Paralysis mode, systematically focusing on four “death points”: the hyper-concentrated nodes of Israeli infrastructure that, if severed, will turn the death cult into a dark, thirsty, and starving cage.
The four vital organs are Hydrological Asphyxiation (hitting 85% of Israel’s potable water in five desalination plants); The Blackout Protocol (hitting the Orot Rabin power station in the heart of the national grid); A Food Siege, hitting the ports of Haifa and Ashdod, essential for Israel’s imports of the 85% of wheat it needs; and Energy Decapitation: focused on the Haifa refineries, the sole Israeli source of refined petroleum, and even more of a key target after the attack on South Pars.
Structural paralysis. Meticulously programmed. Inexorable. Already in effect. https://williambowles.info/2026/03/20/iran-moves-to-total-war-against-the-death-cult/
Pepe Escobar has an excellent article here, after describing the Iranian unstoppable ballistic missiles, he describes Israels other Achilles heels…
The Doctrine of Four Vital Organs.
Israel’s 9 million people survive thanks to only two primary deep-water ports. That has led Tehran to move to Structural Paralysis mode, systematically focusing on four “death points”: the hyper-concentrated nodes of Israeli infrastructure that, if severed, will turn the death cult into a dark, thirsty, and starving cage.
The four vital organs are Hydrological Asphyxiation (hitting 85% of Israel’s potable water in five desalination plants); The Blackout Protocol (hitting the Orot Rabin power station in the heart of the national grid); A Food Siege, hitting the ports of Haifa and Ashdod, essential for Israel’s imports of the 85% of wheat it needs; and Energy Decapitation: focused on the Haifa refineries, the sole Israeli source of refined petroleum, and even more of a key target after the attack on South Pars.
Structural paralysis. Meticulously programmed. Inexorable. Already in effect. https://williambowles.info/2026/03/20/iran-moves-to-total-war-against-the-death-cult/
Craig opines that US/Israel will try to reduce Iran to the condition of Libya. I agree. If they can’t install a vassal government in Iran, they will simply wreck the place and take the oil. However, given the unbelievable level of evil and savagery we’ve witnessed in Gaza, I’m also inclined to believe that once Israel feels its very existence is threatened by Iran’s constant destruction of what is a relatively small country, it will most likely resort to large-yield nuclear weapons. (IMO, the use of nuclear weapons is almost inevitable; it’s just the size of the bombs that is up for debate.) Millions will probably die but Israel will ultimately be victorious. While there was a fatwa in place prohibiting Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, they might have developed weapons based on more advanced technologies. If Iran have any such weapons, or if they can quickly manufacture nukes from their parts bin, they will be used in retribution.
Iran is not susceptible to being destroyed like Libya, as it is the south-western bastion of the Asian continent. It can be approached by sea only through the Persian Gulf or from the Indian Ocean, and by land from Iraq or Turkey – conceivably Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Russia is just on the other side of the Caspian Sea, and if Azerbaijan were to attack Iran it would be turning its back to Russia. Even China would be able to supply weapons, munitions, and even troops if Iran were invaded.
As for nuclear weapons, even if Israel really has them, it would be a losing move to use them. Israel is the glasshouse to end all glasshouses.
Indeed, Iran is a large country and is prepared for a long war of attrition. Israel, on the other hand, is a small country and cannot absorb continuous destruction for very long. In a protracted war of attrition, Israel is unable to win, so, at some point in the not-too-distant future, Israel must do something to break this strategic imbalance before the very existence of the state is threatened. Iran have already made it clear that they will not stop prosecuting the war until Israel as we know it no longer exists and the USA has been permanently removed from the Middle East. Only then, when the threat of further attack has been removed, will Iran cease its attacks. While the only winning move was not to play, that option is no longer available. If you can suggest how Israel can win this war without using nuclear weapons, please explain.
I wanted to include reference to an article from Alex Krainer in my previous post but couldn’t find it in time. It brings some potentially important context to the question of Israel’s behaviour and why it might now consider the use of nuclear weapons to be appropriate:
“According to Jewish eschatology, the concept of redemption – making amends for one’s sins in order to return to the good graces of God – applies not only to individuals, but also to the land of Israel and its people. However, before Jews can be redeemed and be blessed by the long-awaited arrival of the Messiah who was promised to them during their Babylonian captivity, they must suffer through punishment for their sins. To draw this punishment upon themselves, the Jews should let loose their evil impulses to such an extent that it will become obvious to all so that it is undeniable, and the entire world will then turn against Israel and demand that it be punished. That would then trigger Armageddon.
Only when the people of Israel are made to pay for their sins can they be redeemed and merit the arrival of the promised Messiah. Apparently a significant segment of religious Jews do believe this and some of their rabbis wield considerable influence in Israeli politics. One of them was Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Although he died in 1994, Schneerson declared that Benjamin Netanyahu was going to be the last leader of Israel before the Messiah’s arrival. He also declared that 2 October 2027 was the deadline for Israel’s redemption: the punishment and suffering must be done by then and the Messiah would have to be officially recognized as having arrived.”
https://trendcompass.substack.com/p/israel-in-jewish-eschatology
As a footnote to this, some Christians suggest that the Jewish Messiah will be the Antichrist. https://www.thewholychristian.com/post/judaism-s-messiah-vs-the-antichrist
Religion is probably just a smokescreen. Israel wants hegemony and total control over the ME. This would deliver untold riches for the Israeli elite and their american agents. Occams razor: Money and Power is driving this war.
of course it’s planned, but for longer than is suggested.
see for example brian berletic’s account:
“Brian Berletic: Iran War – A Gateway to War with China & Russia” (Glen Diesen, 19 Mar 2026) – video, 1h 1m 19s [YouTube] [Invidious]
It appears that the occupiers of Occupied Palestine, who refer to themselves as’Jews’ are using this war to weaken all the other players; The U.S., Iran, the GCC. The weaker they become, the more advantage it will be for them to reach their goal of “a Greater Occupied Palestine”, or whatever they may wish to call the area.
Although a fair analysis based upon what can be discerned politically, there are aspects that defy reason. Zionists continual references to biblical prophecy as US political beliefs in the rapture posit a degree of madness that doesn’t fit. Netanyahu and Trump are essentially bullies; they are but faces to a long existent desire for an order whereby populations are expendable for some unintelligible outcome, a mask for public consumption, similar in fact to that of a film script. I have little idea of what is going on apart from the wholesale massacre of innocent lives, yet do recognise the complicity of so many that enable and support such barbarism.
The fog of war is exceptionally dense and pervasive around Iran. The Iranians have been very open and honest about the deaths and damage they have suffered; the Israelis and Americans quite the opposite. We have reason to believe that Iran may have hit several US warships, possibly including at least one carrier; and now we hear that it has launched 2 ballistic missiles “towards” Diego Garcia. Modern ballistic missiles are very accurate indeed; at least US, Chinese, and Russian ones are, and there seems no reason to believe that Iranian ones are any worse. Diego Garcia is a small atoll in the shape of a letter “O” with an opening to the north where ships can come and go. Most of it is very narrow indeed, and only in one or two places is it wide enough for an air base. The runways can be seen easily on Google Maps. A moderately accurate Iranian ballistic missile should be able to hit that area; and where one can strike, many more can follow.
The ‘attack’ on Diego Garcia was, IMO, just a warning. Not a serious attack. Diego Garcia is 4,000km from Iran, whereas Cyprus is only 1,500km. If Iran decides to attack the UK then the sovereign bases will be easily destroyed, and probably the Cypriots would be quietly satisfied.
There seems to be no reason for the Iranians to attack British bases. The UK’s armed forces are pathetically weak and pose no threat.
Britain is actively complicit in the war against Iraq, since it allows US aircraft to use UK airfields as bases from which to attack Iran. Since Britain is a party to the conflict, Iran has every reason (and justification) to attack British bases. If Iran were to rain missiles on the two British bases in Cyprus (Akrotiri and Dhekelia), it would be an attack on British sovereign territory, not Cypriot territory. It is also unlikely that NATO Article 5 would apply since Britain is siding with the aggressor nations in this conflict.
Apparently Iran has said that it is not responsible for the “missiles”, so, if true, they were either a false flag or they never existed. Given that nobody can independently verify their existence, I tend to favour the second possibility.
Agreed that the UK’s armed forces are pathetically weak but IMO they do represent a threat as representatives of the corrupt UK government. The UK/MI6 has been a primary player in the travails of Iran since at least the 1950s, the special forces have played a major role in disruptions within Iran, The UK manufactures components for Tomahawk missiles [1], and a UK submarine is currently in the ME to threaten Iran – not to mention the use of UK bases by the USA and the support of UK planes to the illegal war. Whether Iran will let this pass is unknown.
[1] https://www.thecanary.co/global/2026/03/21/uk-parts-in-missile/
One of the missiles fired at Diego Garcia was shot down by an American warship, the other malfunctioned.
According to what trustworthy source, Pears?
Come on Tom, you know how it goes, any source that reports that sort of thing must be trustworthy. Why should anyone who tells me what I want to hear be lying to me?
Just so, Bayard. In the present war, things seem to me worse than ever before. I console myself with Mark Twain’s remark about the role of horse races.
According to the Iranians, they did not fire missiles at Diego Garcia. This report of them doing so may well be a western “psy-op”.
About 10,000 troops are being deployed from the U.S. (against an army of 200,000 at the ready(?). I wouldn’t be surprised if, instead of becoming ground troops in Iran, they invade Cuba. Then, Trump can declare victory in Cuba, and leave the disaster of Iran (for the U.S.) behind.
Trump may well have been talking BS about invading Cuba, as he did with Greenland, as his intended distraction of the month, in this case after Easter, to distract people from THE EPSTEIN FILES. Not that it is likely to work. The attention that his rivals draw to THE EPSTEIN FILES as the mid terms draw near may be greater than ever. 😁
“Knock knock”
“Who’s there?”
“Donald, no, sorry, I mean Iran”
“Iran who?”
“Iran away from the Epstein revelations”
Iran should invade Israel now, on the ground. Straight through the crescent. Hit the bully in the mouth. Not to win but to show they mean business and to lift spirits of Palestinians, Lebanese and all Muslims. Let them choose sides. Take the fight to the enemy, otherwise it will be attrition.
Yes I had thought of that but I think it is too much to expect of Iran.
You know this would be reported as an unprovoked assault for years to come.
History would start on the day of the counter-attack, and that would give Amerikan-led aggression even more supposed legitimacy, because that’s all anyone not studying the facts would ever hear.
Iran doesn’t need to invade Israel, and it would be foolhardy to do so.
All it needs to do is continue destroying the infrastructure and provide support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houties.
Corbyn is in Cuba, apparently, feeding the 5000. There are millions of people going hungry in this world or need other forms of aid – why Cuba? This is why the left will never get elected – because it has no concern for its own people or its own country. That said, Corbyn refused to speak up for Julian Assange, an Australian, while vigorously defending the right of that woman who went off to join ISIS to return to Britain.
Your Party or Cuba’s Party?
What utter BS.
Corbyn is bringing attention to the plight of yet another victim of American imperial bullying, where America is bringing about yet another humanitarian catastrophe which is not some sort of natural disaster. He’s also helping the aid convoy avoid being blown up by the Americans, by virtue of his profile.
“No concern” for his own country? More lies, unfounded BS.
Any more right wing lies you’d like to promote? The billionaires and their massive media control can’t take care of everything by themselves!
You are plain wrong. Nothing else to be said.
You’re wrong. But that said, Corbyn has not come out against Israel or the zionists.