In international law, Tehran has every right to close the strait of Hormuz to nations with which it is in armed conflict. Two vital points:
1) States who permit attacks on Iran to be launched from their territory can be blocked
2) Iran can block neutral ships from trading with states with which it is in conflict.
Plainly UK ships can be blocked under 1). But it is also undeniable that Gulf states have permitted attacks to be launched from their territory. A-10 Warthog attack jets have been routinely used against Iranian ships and were used in the extraordinary operation at the weekend involving special forces on the ground in Iran.
(If you believe that was a pilot rescue I have a bridge to sell you).
Multiple types of helicopter have also been used. The 5th fleet having run away well into the Indian ocean, these short-range aircraft can only be operating out of the Gulf states.
HIMARS short-range missiles were also used against Kharg Island – again this has to be from the Gulf states.
Iran has the right therefore to close the Strait of Hormuz to ships trading with those Gulf States that are hosting US forces attacking Iran. Which effectively means an almost complete closure of the straits.
The remaining legal obligation – from Article 34 of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea – is to allow free passage to neutral vessels which are not trading with states with which Iran is in armed conflict. That is not likely to be a large number of vessels.
A week ago I participated in a discussion on Al Jazeera in which I was able to make some of these points. I also pointed out the hypocrisy of the Western powers’ sudden interest in freedom of navigation, when they have been supporting or ignoring illegal blockades of Gaza, Cuba and Venezuela, and illegal action against the misnamed “Russian shadow fleet”.
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Never mind Palantir’s huge contracts – given to them by the Westminster government for a minute.
The same government has signed a £880 million pounds contract with Boeing on armaments, I’d imagine some big backhanders found their way into certain parties pockets – as the price of everything goes through the roof.
“The same government has signed a £880 million pounds contract with Boeing on armaments”
That’s just tribute to Britain’s imperial masters.
Best wishes to Craig, for a quick and complete recovery.
Meanwhile, anyone wondering why CankleMan has turned on Meloni this week may find the answer here:
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-halts-renewal-defense-pact-israel/
“….Meloni told reporters her government “has decided to suspend the automatic renewal of the defense agreement with Israel in consideration of the current situation.”
The 2003 deal concerns the exchange of military material and technological research between the two armed forces and automatically renews every 5 years. Human rights lawyers have urged Italy to end the agreement, citing legal and ethical concerns over Israel’s strikes in Gaza.”
Wonder if Starmer’s planning something similar? Only joking.
As this is a West Asia thread I will post this haiku. However best wishes to Mr Murray first. Safe recovery and future journeys. Best wishes.
Spring carpet bombing,
Planting seeds of resistance-
Lebanon’s orchards.
Watching BBC 2’s Newsnight and all the political guests, even those against Trump’s war, agreed: Iran’s is horrible, horrible regime, terrible for women.
But how true is that?
After 2022’s protests, the compulsory hijab law was lifted, which saw dress code rules relaxed. Now 30-40% of women in Tehran are now observed walking without headscarves.
But here is the real kicker :
Iran produces approximately 330,000 STEM graduates annually. Approximately 70% of these science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates are women. That’s ~231,000.
The UK produces 191,000 core-STEM graduates annually, of whom about 30% (~58,755) are women.
Ah, some would say, but Iran’s population is 93 million to the UK’s 69 million = 1.347 x 58,755 = 79,191 (adjusted) vs 231,000 on a population like for like basis.
If it’s such a terrible regime for women, as we are repeatedly told. Why are they doing so much better in educational terms than the UK? And I haven’t checked the figures, but I’d wager it’s the same for US, CAN, AUS and NZ too.
The percentage of women in employment in Iran is the worst in the ME.
https://wncri.org/2024/08/01/womens-economic-participation-iran/
What’s the point of having a STEM degree if nobody will give you a job?
You might want to check your source:
The NCRI, that is the – National Council of Resistance of Iran – belongs to israel/US finded MeK cult:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Mojahedin_Organization_of_Iran
Quoting official statistics.
Have you a more reliable source that says different?
Where are the list links to the sources they used?
Pears Morgaine
That could be due to sanctions and the general state of the Iranian economy. Aside from being unable to access capital to invest and their inability to export goods, countries can’t invest, fearing the ever-obnoxious secondary sanctions. The same situation was created in Venezuela. And in U.S.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, you’ve got someone who seems particularly vindictive; taking gleeful pleasure in strangling economies with sanctions and secondary sanctions.
You’d think women who work at the US State Dept, CIA and politicians like Hillary Clinton; those who champion women’s rights and heavily criticise the regressive Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan, for their decision banning female education, would ask: how can bombing the shit out of Iran’s universities and other institutions be morally right and consistent with empowerment?
In Venezuela 38% of women are employed and rather than reduce opportunities the effect of sanctions has been to force more women onto the jobs market to help their families make ends meet.
Maybe the situation in Iran is due to the regime’s built-in misogyny.
First act of the zionists’ war to Liberate Women was the targeting and blowing up of 170 little girls.
Only after US responsibility was confirmed did Starmer agree to cede British air bases to Trump.
Very “sad” news, Iran is opening up the Hormuz strait – for what one wonder – a move which would only benefit Trump and would prove that his reckless war of aggression and pressure actually work, there are also reports that Iran will somehow give up their uranium stockpile – which they have all the right to have and aquire – just to get their money back that have been frozen past decades in the West.
US and Israel will of course not let Iran off the hook until there is a “regime change” – there is no need for Iran to make a single concession.
How is stopping deaths sad ?
You won’t find any details in the MSM of what this ‘temporary’ re-opening actually means, I suggest you get your news elsewhere, the re-opening is very dependent on Israels behaviour.
What is interesting though, is this.
‘ “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you!” Trump said via Truth Social. ‘
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260417/trump-prohibits-israel-from-bombing-lebanon-1124004832.html
What this lays bare is the fact that the USA is the controlling factor in the never ending ME wars. Everyone knew this, but it took Trump to say the quiet part out loud.
Brent Crude <$90. Buy.
Euro equities up 2% today. Sell.
Be prepared to reverse this position following Cankleman's ™ next Mendacity Social post.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
And here’s an insider:
https://cryptobriefing.com/760m-brent-crude-short-trade-precedes-strait-of-hormuz-de-escalation-news/
It’s down a tad more today, so sell some stocks and buy it again before the markets notice Iran has just closed the Straits again.
Honestly, are Trump and Iran working this racket together?
It’s not just me.
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-groundhog-day-scenario-playing-out-in-markets-exhausts-investors-2026-4
Disclaimer, I have no direct investments in stocks, shares or oil.
Your next opportunity, punters! Brent Crude up $4 and FTSE100 down 0.6 on the news that the US has (illegally) grabbed an Iranian vessel. Should you wait until Wednesday, when Trump will become a fluffy bunny (est Brent Crude @ >$100 again) and dump oil, or maybe take your profit sooner? Decisions. Given the number of C17s heading for the Middle East right now, it’s a tricky call. But Mystic Komodo thinks Brent will go higher…and indexes lower…
Stevie Boy
Stopping death? There is a phony and temporary ceasefire in place, in some days the death toll will escalate once again. These pauses are just to initiated to make Trump look good and lower the gas prices.
Also, Lebanon was bombed by israel hours after the ceasefire. US could have been the ultimate controlling factor in the ME but let israel do what it wants.
Flocking refugees,
One million Lebanese,
Bombs- spring migrations.
Meanwhile the imbecillic right-wing anti-immigration parties within the EU support the instigator (israel) of this immigration influx, on top of it, by supporting israel these right-wingers also contribute to the same mooooslem radicalization that they then whine about. Sigh. Cannot make these morons up.
Also in Israel: ‘We must make the name Mohammed popular in Europe!”‘
Video: https://www.facebook.com/hiddenamericans/videos/we-want-mohammed-to-be-the-most-popular-name-in-the-ukwe-want-more-mohammeds-in-/1471819407988102/
“by supporting israel these right-wingers also contribute to the same mooooslem radicalization that they then whine about.”
That’s not a bug, it’s a feature. Extremists need enemies to blame for everything.
One thought Russia would be supportive of Iran, instead Russia keep kowtowing to Trump/israel:
Russia stands ready to help remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, Aleksey Likhachev, CEO of the Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom, has said.
https://swentr.site/news/638670-iran-rosatom-russia-uranium/
Like Russia themselves would ever give away their uranium to another nation like that. The gesture also buy into/insinuate that Iran is somehow a threat.
Jack
April 19, 2026 at 16:45
Putin wouldn’t need to suck up to Trump if it wasn’t for his illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Because of the latter he needs to keep Trump onside to ensure that he gives little or no support to Ukraine.
“Putin wouldn’t need to suck up to Trump if it wasn’t for his illegal invasion of Ukraine.”
That, of course, presupposes that Putin is sucking up to Trump. Of course, in JKR world, no-one ever talks to anyone else for any other reason, the only reason for jaw jaw rather than war war is weakness or sycophancy. Perish the thought that any of the world’s problems could be solved by anything other than military force.
Actually, diplomatically ‘if’ Iran was to compromise with the great Satan then handing one’s uranium to Russia makes a 1000 times more sense than giving it to the USA. It would be safe, it would be recoverable and it could be internationally verified. Also, recall that Russia is a major player in providing nuclear power in Iran through Rosatom.
I think you’re misunderstanding the offer. Is that accidental or intentional ?
Stevie Boy
April 19, 2026 at 22:19
Jack said “One thought Russia would be supportive of Iran, instead Russia keep kowtowing to Trump/israel”.
My reply explained why Russia “kowtow”s to Trump.
Stevie Boy
Maybe I misunderstand you here but why would Iran give up the uranium? Iran have all the right to enrich and acquire uranium.
And even if Iran did that – stopped and/or shipped their uraniaum out – the US and Israel would come up with other demands not related to the nuclear program.
I agree. However, the Iranians, unlike the USA, have always been ready to make concession to achieve peace – in this respect they appear to be intelligent, practical and trusting people. Russia’s offer is a good diplomatic one iff Iran wanted to make a concession, however, at this point, Iran has catagorically said they will not be surrendering their uranium to anyone.
Regardless, USrael are total bastards and are agreement incapable, expect hostilities to resume soon.
Iran says they are not involved in ceasefire discussions, Trump says an agreement will be signed tomorrow. Who do you believe ?
Pumpin’, dumpin’ Trumpin’
Brent Crude’s popped back nicely from its ~$90 low when optimism about the outcome of talks peaked on the 17th. Now just nudging $100, possibly because Iran is now impounding ships, and Rump’s still blockading Iran with no end in sight. Nevertheless, profitable for some. Chances are the price will start heading south within 48 hours, as this cyclical fluctuation is intentional. Expect yet another optimistic lie from Rump soon. Looks like the preferred range is $93 -$98, and the market hasn’t quite caught up with applying negative feedback. I’d sell soon, and buy some stocks. (FTSE100, still down from 17th April, failing further disasters it’s approaching a local low.) Meanwhile those correctly following the money may care to take a look at another scam:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/apr/15/justin-sun-world-liberty-financial-blacklist-trump
WLF is 49% Trump family-owned, and 49% Saudi since Donald was anointed king. 75% of the take goes to the Trump end.
The prospect of no improvement has continued to drive oil prices up – today’s high is $106 for Brent Crude, piggybacking on a general rise in the oil market, and right now a more realistic $103. Maybe the smart money is realising that Rump will play this out until it becomes unprofitable for him and his mates. Nevertheless, the prospect of yet another “breakthrough” promoted by Rump’s tame media persists. Then Iran will deny the breakthrough a day later, and the cycle repeats. FTSE was around 10,370 at 1100 today, but is now rising. If this continues, the next cycle has just started. Perhaps on the basis of something the media don’t know yet, but which the insiders do.
Watch this space.
Hello Komodo – good to see you’re still going after all this time. Quite amazing really!
TY Glenn, and the same to you!! Craig is my inspiration!
At 0800 today, possibly responding to Trump’s extension of the Lebanon ceasefire , Brent Crude (ad hoc indicator of current price) fell abruptly to $99, after 24 hours at above $102. This repeats the sequence between 0800 and 1300 on the 23rd , rather closely. Lovers of patterns will expect the next rise very soon, reaching ‘pumped’ mode for another day.
I accept no responsibility for losses, but then again, neither does Rump.
(Edit) @1344 BST…
Up again. Mystic Komodo thanks you for your applause.
Today’s oil pump lasted until just before profit-taking time at ~ 12.00 BST, when it dropped precipitously from 107 to below 104. Stocks went the other way, as has become usual. The time of Rump’s announcement that his two goons would not after all be talking peace in Pakistan – because yibble yibble blah blah – is given as 12.38. Oil is now pumping again, as the new cheaper price attracts reinvestment (and divestment of stock holdings)
Restoring sanity to the market.
As Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker, remarked last month…
“Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill,”
Meanwhile, as, with nothing even likely to be settled, Brent Crude oscillates between $104 and $107, the latest Trump pump, following more Untruth Antisocial idiocy, kicked it to the higher value this morning. Time to sell again!
(I have no skin in this game and accept no responsibility for being wrong)
Oh, and, have you seen Brent June futures? If someone bought some of that three months ago (obviously not knowing that there would be a huge and sustained oil crisis) they’d have made above 40% profit by today. This would increase as June came closer, and it would be in the interest of the hypothetical investor – let us call him Trump – to keep the crisis going as long as possible. And that would keep Putin happy too. Bonus.
I wonder why the UK is all of a sudden pro the proscribing of the IRGC? This, after years of resistance to doing so under both the Tories and Labour?
Why now? It could be that the UK has lost a contact/ informant; maybe someone well-placed within the IRGC who has been demoted, possibly seriously injured or killed in the war? It’s a sudden and strange announcement by Starmer, given the fact the EU recently proscribed them and the UK didn’t indicate it was inclined to join them in doing so. It’s a stupid move now, as diplomatic contacts and diplomacy to resolve this dispute in the Strait of Hormuz appear essential.
And quite how you proscribe, as terrorists, the official armed forces of another country, idk? There is probably a better case to be made for proscribing the IDF, were the govt not intent on destroying the evidence of war crimes. It seems like yet more absurd posturing and pandering to Israel; with bans already in place on THEIR other regional adversaries’ Hamas and Hezbollah, and both their armed wings and political too. Proscribing the political wing of any organisation is foolish – for how would the British have got the IRA to stop, if refusing to speak to Sinn Féin?
It doesn’t exactly zero in on the root cause of antisemitism in the UK, does it? This rose significantly (and has done so before) in the wake of disproportionate Israeli assaults on Gaza…and Lebanon. This is not coincidence. Nor does it depend on the IRGC.
The UK Muslim population outnumbers the Jewish by 10:1. Whether or not the legislation reduces offences against the Jewish community by “state actors”, we can be sure that there is a reservoir of British Muslims sufficiently furious to take some kind of direct action against the perceived enemy, without any input from Iran. Indeed, most of them are Sunni, and Shia Iran is not their natural ally. But a Muslim is a Muslim’s brother.
Yes, it is wrong to conflate all Jews with Israel, and to blame them for the apartheid state’s ongoing atrocities. Maybe this would be a little easier to understand if, say, followers of Elchonon Wasserman (qv) made it clear that many Jews do not approve of what Israel is doing, nor, even of its original foundation. As he said, “Anti-Semites want to kill the body, but Zionists kill the soul. Better to die than consort with the Zionists.”
(He was shot by Nazi collaborators in Vilnius)
Perhaps Starmer should stop listening to Elbit Systems – and his wife – and get some alternative points of view?
The root cause of antisemitism is the zionist lobby. 50% of Starmer’s cabinet are funded in some form by the zionist lobby, through the likes of Trevor Chinn. Then there is the likes of McSweeney a zionist SPAD who is ‘advising’ Starmer. The whole political system is corrupted, it cannot be fixed without major root and branch changes. Talking and discussions won’t change anything.
For a start the whole lobby system needs to be stopped and outlawed, then politicians and political parties need to be funded only by the public purse with no private funding permitted. And, the revolving door system needs to be stopped, no more jobs for the boys in banking or the MIC.
If we keep on with the same system we’ll keep getting the same results !
“For a start the whole lobby system needs to be stopped and outlawed, then politicians and political parties need to be funded only by the public purse with no private funding permitted. And, the revolving door system needs to be stopped, no more jobs for the boys in banking or the MIC.
If we keep on with the same system we’ll keep getting the same results !”
How true. And how – in a democracy – do you propose to change anything? Our elected turkeys aren’t going to vote for Christmas.
Anyway, just to lighten the mood, during the Thursday, April 23, episode of Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Kimmel, 58, parodied the annual White House Correspondents’ Association event days before it was scheduled to occur in Washington, D.C.
“Our first lady Melania is here,” Kimmel said when pretending to be the host of the evening. “So beautiful, Mrs. Trump you have a glow like an expectant widow.”
To which the Big Orange Arse responded: “so many people are incensed by Kimmel’s despicable call to violence, and normally would not be responsive to anything that he said but, this is something far beyond the pale.”
This is a blatant case of the potus calling the kimmel black.
I see that the Big Orange Clown accused Jimmy Kimmel of “violent rhetoric” when riffing on the Melania/Donald age gap (see below). Clearly a case of the potus calling the kimmel black.
Komodo
It’s stated officially, that the Naval Secretary John Phelan was fired due to poor relations with Pete Hegseth, I wonder if the recent sackings could relate to objections about the deployment length, a deployment under horrible living conditions,with lousy food, where near-mutiny conditions are being reported?
Prolonged US Navy aircraft carrier deployments, particularly the 2025–2026 deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, have stretched crew morale and welfare to breaking points, with some deployments lasting nearly 11 months.
Regardless of whether the crew think their actions and this war, for Israel, are righteous or not,11 months away from family risks turn them into strangers. The reported stress and other mental health issues, are perfectly understandable. It’d be no great surprise to find many quit the Navy altogether when they return, as such deployments show a total disregard for their mental well-being. And to think its at the orders of Trump, a guy who dodged the draft five-times, and dashes back to Mar-a-Lago, to play golf, at every opportunity. Some commander-in -chief, it just adds insult to injury.
There is something called the “6-Month Rule”: That asserts once a deployment exceeds six months, personnel attrition and morale issues accelerate.
I think the sacking would most likely have been due to Phelan’s reluctance to breach international law and support illegal rules of engagement. Hegseth would not want the MAGA puppet Trump to be aware of military dissent as it would dilute his malign influence. Certainly there is a logistic problem, though. Resupply, via Sea Hawk helicopters, from advance depots such as Crete, is probably not keeping up with the mandatory schedule of daily ice cream and popcorn deliveries. (I once worked on a joint US/UK base, and this was the rumour). And the constant shuttle of C17s from the US and Ramstein is probably prioritising hardware and ordnance to replace the colossal amount wasted on Iran already. Incidentally, Turnhouse and Macrihanish also feature here.
Komodo
Given Trump’s vile threats to “kill” a whole civilisation, many will find the pause in hostilities in favour of a blockade, odd. It’s certainly not a result of the emotionally stunted Trump having a bout of doubt about his illegal war, or compassion for the Iranian people.
There is a very good reason however : The U.S. military have already used up half of its most expensive missiles, and it could take up to 4 years to rebuild its stockpiles! They have burnt through so many Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles, they can’t continue without leaving the US vulnerable were a secondary conflict with China, Russia or N.Korea to erupt. This is why Trump has been forced into resorting to an illegal blockade. The U.S. is in a deep mess of the uber hubristic Trump administration’s making. They’ve got offensive capability(for sorties from carriers), though even on that front, precision guided weaponry is getting heavily depleted too. But defensively, they are really on the ropes. Iran are in quite a strong position to turn the economic screw on the west, if they can tolerate the hardship, and keep the Strait closed.
And the U.S. is also in a mess diplomatically, with the hapless, unqualified duo of Kushner and Witkoff out of their depth. They want Iran to accept U.S.dictated terms, which breach Iran’s rights under the voluntary NPT. And get this, they want the IAEA to police (via inspections) any deal made without UN input.
Another thing. You’ve got to laugh at these online Pahlavi supporters, who still seem to think that after Reza supporting the US /Israeli bombing onslaught, in a campaign in which over 30 universities have been bombed(killing 60 students and 5 professors) along with countless hospitals destroyed, their man, Reza, can just waltz in there and be greeted like some conquering hero. His poor prospects, if he ever had any, ended the moment the bombs started dropping
I submit that this is the only way to make sense of the US’s actions. It assumes that someone sane is hiding behind the orange lunatic:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-a-Permanent-US-Blockade-of-the-Strait-of-Hormuz-Part-of-a-Much-Bigger-Plan.html
“The U.S. blockade of Iran is strategic, not accidental, aimed at securing long-term control over key energy chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz rather than just responding to Iran.
China is the central concern, as its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy—and growing influence in Iran and Iraq—makes control of these routes a major geopolitical lever.
U.S. actions can be seen as part of a broader global strategy, with the U.S. reinforcing influence over multiple strategic chokepoints worldwide, even if it means structurally higher oil prices.”
Now read on.
Chilling, no?
Komodo
As I stated above, I think Trump would prefer to keep the military attack underway. But the US has burnt through half its critical stockpiles : https://fortune.com/2026/04/24/us-military-depleted-half-most-expensive-missiles-cost-of-iran-war/ As the piece says, these complex weapons take lots of time to produce and lots of expensive rare-earth metals, which China controls the supply of. So depletion is doubly precarious when China is seen as an adversary. Why should an adversary, be inclined to assist the U.S. in its replenishment quest? China should leverage this situation to demand full access to Nvidia’s latest, greatest AI chips, or no rare-earths. The U.S. certainly would leverage like that ,were positions reversed.
Iran is estimated to have anything up to half its missiles left. The US simply can’t risk depleting stockpiles to near zero, not with China, N.Korea all watching. This blockade has been forced upon Trump, I’d imagine this brutal truth could be behind the military firings.
In order to keep Hormuz closed, Trump has no need to deplete his weapon stocks much further. He needs only to interdict Iranian shipping and ports: Iran will then reliably respond in kind. The target isn’t actually tankers or bulk carriers but the marine insurance industry. High physical risk = no insurance =nothing moves. Meanwhile (read the article in full) the US replaces the broken Middle East supply by looking at South America.
I think the rare-earth scenario has been oversimplified by the media. The US handed off most of its REE production and refining to China in the 90s. And co-operation between the US and China is far from unimaginable – see:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142072300733X
Also note the high environmental hazard involved in extracting and processing REEs, though, granted, this would not disturb Trump unduly.
Komodo
I think the MSM have been instructed to downplay, or even hide the truth, because western authorities don’t want to give Iran succour. If the Strait stays shut, it isn’t just oil and LNG that rockets in price, it’s fertilizers and importantly, helium. Very pure helium is used in semiconductor fabs to keep wafers cool during production, and Taiwan and China would be the ones most affected. This, in turn, could stop all sorts of other production lines around the world (US, Europe,China,Japan) from cars to military hardware.
Experts estimate oil will rise $10 per barrel for every month this impasse continues. But the situation could change rapidly with a sudden exponential increase. Iran is in a very strong position, if those seeking to capitulate don’t surrender. Trump is in a bind; he can’t restart the war (depleted stockpiles) and by simply leaving, having achieved very little. He would face the wrath of the Israel lobby.