Ross – Your link doesn’t work. Sorry for my double post, I was trying to correct a misspelling of Corbyn’s name. [ Mod: Fixed. ]
I was just reviewing the pre Election post, “The Largest Vote Swings in British General Election History Censored Out By the BBC and Mainstream Media.”
The focus of Craig’s hopeful post was on the disgraceful media bias trying to convince us all that there would be huge Labour losses but that the Tories would prevail unscathed. As he pointed out YouGov generally over compensate in favour of the Tories. This was the last really big Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model YouGov poll done prior to the vote. Despite the relentless propaganda spewed by the BBC and MSM, to discredit Labour and shore up the Tories, as he said the polls were already starting to narrow and Boris was having a very bad final week full of shamefully embarrassing gaffes.
Craig focused on a number of constituencies where YouGov had predicted a shift in votes; some were more significant than others. He identified Dudley North, Ian Austin’s seat as a place with a predicted swing from Labour to Tory of 4.9% according to a YouGov poll. Ian Austin was an oafish right leaning Labour candidate who was reprimanded on several occasions for heckling plus he was issued a caution by the Labour NEC. He attempted to distract from his own bad behaviour by joining the chorus of Tories defaming Jeremy Corbyn and then urging voters to support the Tories. While this was lapped up by the press a lot of Labour supporters were really glad to be rid of Austin and were ready to vote for the new candidate, Melanie Dudley. The result on polling day should potentially have seen less of a shift to the Tory candidate, but instead of YouGov’s predicted 4.9% it was a whopping 17% swing!
Craig then focused on Wokingham which he described as being “In safe Tory Berkshire, close to Johnson’s own Uxbridge constituency, John Redwood the MP for a generation…” was under serious challenge. He went on to reveal that: “YouGov shows a swing from Tory to LibDem in Wokingham of 20.35%. Let me say that again, 20.35% swing from Tory to Lib Dem. That is one of the biggest swings in general election history (excluding freak circumstances like brand new parties)” he emphasised. Redwood went into the election with a sizable Tory majority but, he was a core ERG supporter of hard Brexit and his pro Remain constituents were flocking to the LibDems. He must have been reassured by the team that it would be all right on the night: although he did take a 20% hit it was a far more modest loss of 7%.
Craig noted that in Grimsby the swing measured by YouGov from Labour to Conservative was 3.6% but, on Election Day it was far greater, over twice that at 13%! Pro Brexit Grimsby is a major fishing port where the electorate have a legitimate concern with the EU over the fishing policy. The Melanie Onn scandal did not help and turnout was really low, but does it justify the YouGov poll being that far off?
In contrast Craig highlighted: “Putney has the same swing as Grimsby, with Labour expected by YouGov to take the seat from the Tories on a swing of 3.5%.” Closer to prediction there was a 4% swing on polling day but, was a far more significant shift stymied by an unexpected increase in voter turnout from a healthy 72.1% in 2017 to 77% turnout in 2019. It took a 5% increase in turnout in a remain backing London constituency to achieve the solitary Labour gain of the 2019 General Election.
In Esher and Walton, another core supporter of hard Brexit was under siege from the pro Remain LibDem candidate. This threat did make the news as Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was at risk of losing his seat. Craig noted that in the same YouGov poll they measured “a 19.6% swing from Tory to Lib Dem in voting intention and only another 1% swing needed to get rid of Raab.” At the close of polling Raab was able to do better with half that loss suffering a swing of 9%. This was also one of the areas where there was an admitted increase in turnout from 73.9% to a healthy 77.7%. I say “admitted” because overall the turnout was claimed to have been lower than in 2017 despite numerous pictures of young people waiting in exceptionally long lines to vote.
I believe that the Tories calculated as precisely as possible exactly how many votes per target constituency they would need in order to take as many seats as was feasible. This based on the most accurate polling data that they would have had to commission privately and keep under wraps. Somewhere there must exist a computer file containing all of the directions for Idox to print the required number of substitute ballot envelopes. This data master plan would be absolutely necessary to crunch the numbers for obtaining the desired result without arousing too much suspicion. Beyond that the Tories could rely on the BBC and compliant right wing media to manipulate public expectations in anticipation of their doctored result.
This information must be stored on a file probably on more than one computer. We need a whistleblower to leak that file to the media and present it to police. At least one copy must have been sent to Idox to initiate the printing instructions. I would bet the Dom’s laptop is worth seizing in a number 10 raid! Fat chance of that, but nab that file and you expose the full extent of this rigged election.