Reply To: SARS cov2 and Covid 19

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Reported deaths with Covid-19 in the US:

5-8 Sep (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue): 707, 430, 286, 496
12-15 Sep (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue): 707, 392, 480, 1197
Figures from Worldometers.

So yesterday’s figure was an increase of 141% over the number for the previous Tuesday. This is looking like the beginning of a “third wave” in the US.

Statistical Note
Given the weekly reporting cycle, it is sensible to compare figures from the same day of the week, as above. The federal Labour Day holiday on Monday 7 September probably had an effect on the usual reporting pattern, but the figures for the three days prior to the two Tuesdays suggest that at least most of yesterday’s increase is NOT the result of reports stacking up because of the holiday. If such a stack-up happened, it might explain the small decrease on Sunday and the small increase on Monday, but it doesn’t explain the rocketing growth yesterday.

It is just about possible that the holiday may have caused some reports to be filed early rather than late (I am not sure how this may have happened, but it may have occurred for some bureaucratic reason), so keep a watch on the figure for today. But this seems unlikely. Far more likely, big trouble is starting. This may turn out to be concentrated in states where the Trump campaign has held large rallies with lots of shouting by people not wearing masks.