SA, October 18, 10:51, #61615:
– “the CFR is lower this time round. […] patients admitted to ITU now have, I think, 80% chance of surviving, compared to figures nearer to 50% in April-May.”
This is good news, but it makes it even more important not to overwhelm the hospitals. In April/May, the death rate would have doubled had the hospitals been overrun (100% / 50%), but now the death rate would increase by a factor of five (100% / 20%).
It has been fashionable in the anti-restriction propaganda to cite an IFR Infection Fatality Rate of around “just” 1% (“99% survive”), but this is the IFR with treatment. The “raw” IFR was – and will remain – nearer 2.8%, over 1.8 million people in the UK.
In our favour, the rate of spread has been much lower so far during this increase, making it easier not to overrun the hospitals.