Reply To: Conspiracy Theorists, Why is Westminster Lifting All COVID Restrictions?


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#74106
SA

Michael
The question of the herd immunity is a complex one and depends on several factors, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission, numbers with natural infection and also the virus itself. The delta variant has a much higher R value. The further complication is also how long the immunity lasts and in future whether a variant that is resistent to current vaccines emerges. This paper is perhaps too technical and I do not claim to understand it completely but it explains these constant interactions. Note that vaccine coverage in UK is quoted as number of adults vaccinated which leaves a sizeable number of susceptible children. Also because the vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission is about 86%, 14% of those vaccinated are still susceptible and also the unvaccinated adults. This is why there is this sudden rise of cases which is due to the delta variant and its increased rate of transmission. I doubt we are anywhere near herd immunity in UK.