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Mn
what you mean by sky rocketing energy prices in EU compared by skyrocketing in UK?
Or you just notice/exaggerate EU problems and ignore UK.
Engaging with you is waste of time!ET & Clark
I will ignore (misunderstood) original purpose of this forum and will post anything to do with climate or politics or economics on this thread.
Pidgeon English, it is the science, politics and economics as those relate to or surrounding the climate debate/global climate change etc I was trying to refer to in the title and obviously didn’t do a good job :D. Or maybe we are just getting our wires crossed. I was hoping to learn something from others, good sources of information, different angles an so on……..
Btw, what has happened to SA?
O.K. some are saying that most problems are caused by Brexit, others say it is because of pandemic or both.
The price of Brent Crude is the same for all, it is the traded price. However, individual governments can add tax to the cost of fuel.
However, the cost of Natural Gas has increased by twenty five time in eighteen months. That is not because of Brexit. If one thing has made it skyrocket, it is more likely to be the once in one hundred years pandemic. But underlying everything is the global increase in human population. Richer people want to use more power. Other people aspire to becoming richer and using power. If I could try to put my finger on it, I would say it is the people of Asia becoming richer and wanting more power. If we look at China, the individual people have become richer, so that means they come to desire more stuff, more stuff needs more energy. Same with India. Are we to guess that there is a finite amount of fuel?Maybe the cost of Natural Gas, will come down a little, in the medium term, if the U.S.A. resume fracking and Nord Stream Two flows reliably. However, the problem will resume.
Ever more people, wanting ever more stuff and ever more power.Michael norton, Oct 4, 19:36 (previous page):
– “too much demand or not enough energy?”
Not enough gas. I don’t think energy demand has risen above pre-pandemic levels. Gas flow from Russia is down while Russia refills its storage ahead of winter, but Russian storage should be full this time of year, so it looks like Russia could be running into production problems, indicating depletion of reserves. European storage is also low for the time of year. The UK gave up on storage, so we’re up shit creak and we threw our paddle overboard in 2016.
The world could have just passed global Peak Gas, in which case, humanity is in deep shit.
Europe has a gas shortage problem and their gas prices are way up, but it’s twice as bad in the UK because Blair’s mob sold off our long term storage and Cameron / May’s mob let Centrica Storage get away with not repairing the facility, in breach of their contract.
Michael – “That is not because of Brexit.”
The even higher prices in the UK are partly to do with Brexit because when the UK was in the EU, treaty obligations required our EU partners to supplement our gas if we ran short – though the UK was in breach of its obligations by letting UK storage fall to ruin – all EU nations are required to maintain a long-term gas reserve.
These economics are all related to climate change because now everyone has insufficient gas, they’re burning more coal instead, which releases over twice as much carbon dioxide.
With UK gas costing the equivalent of $230 per barrel of oil (typically about $70, and gas is usually cheaper) I think this just about sums up our predicament:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1445270828204105733
Yes that really is the UK Prime Minister’s Twitter account.
Mrs. Hilda Thatcher went for “The North Sea Dash For Gas”. This had, for her, the added bonus of stiffing the coal unions.
Being a chemist, she thought it would be cheaper and less damaging, if we transitioned away from Big Coal into using North Sea Gas (essentially Methane) that at one time was just flared off.
So, in the U.K. we started winding down our indigenous coal industry and made an indigenous Natural Gas Industry. So our base line electricity feedstock became North Sea Gas, rather than British Coal.
The North Sea Gas also became a feedstock for many other chemical industries, including fertiliser. One of the consequences was mass layoffs in the coal, coking and steel industries. No more gasometer construction, less coal and less steel needed, more layoffs.
Welcome in mass unemployment and many pissed off people.Michael – “So our base line electricity feedstock became North Sea Gas, rather than British Coal.”
That didn’t happen until later, under Blair, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. After Thatcher decimated the UK coal industry Britain continued mostly on imported coal, and new US-licensed pressurised water nuclear reactors.
What is now happening in Europe, partly because of rocketing fuel prices, is return to inflation and that means Interest Rates will go up. How could the price of Natural Gas go up 32 times in eighteen months? It just does not seem realistic, could part of the reason be the abandonment by countries of both Coal and Nuclear, simultaneously?
Take Germany, they are divesting themselves of both Coal and Nuclear, that is why Nord Stream Two is going from Russia to Germany, they wish to use Methane as their house heating and also for Electricity Base Load. However not everyone has the money to get Nord Stream to their door. What do the poorer countries/people do, freeze to death, this Winter?(Future price of) Natural Gas is more than 32 times what it was eighteen months ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dash_for_Gas“An underpinning factor in the dash for gas was the recent development of North Sea gas.
In 1990, gas turbine power stations made up 5% of the UK’s generating capacity. By 2002, the new CCGT power stations made up 28% UK generating capacity; gas turbines accounted for a further 2%. It is estimated the Dash for Gas cost £11bn.”The conservative government was in power from 11 February 1975 till 2 May 1997.
Mn
are you sure Natural gas price went 32 times since April 2020?
Things have to go together.
For example in England, the Bank of England had to be put in place. This allowed virtually unlimited borrowing, the freeing up of money.
There had to be an enthusiastic scientific base, there was. Then there had to be the Agrarian Revolution. Agriculture had to first become efficient, so less human bodies were needed. Transport needed to be made much easier, hence the development of the canal system.
Without all these prerequisites, the Industrial Revolution would not have happened, first, in the U.K.Natural Gas for Electricity Base Load.
The desire to kill the coal industry.
The discovery of North Sea Oil & Natural Gas.
Natural Gas was at first, a waste product. In industry, they always find a profitable way of utilizing waste products.
The Methane had to be cheap enough to change power in the U.K.All these things came together.
The U.K. Continental Shelf Act came into force in May 1964. The Three-Day Week of 1974, was what helped to set this transission in motion.MN 78853
Where did you get this 32 times more than 18 months ago(April 2020)?
It sounds outrageous or hard to believe. Triple quadrouple or whatever yes but 32X29 May 2020 it was 9.63 pence / therm
currently it is 266.41 pence / therm
only 27 times but was more earlier today.RUSSIA to the Rescue
“U.K. wholesale gas prices hit a record high before falling after RUSSIA said it was boosting supplies to Europe.
Russia President Vladimir Putin appeared to calm the market after gas prices had risen by 37% in 24 hours to trade at 400p per therm on Wednesday.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58815665
Remember that a few years ago, Mr. Putin said ” The Future is Methane”
“As the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is almost finished, the Saint Petersburg-based company believes that it would be much more profitable to deliver gas to Europe through the new pipeline system directly from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea rather than using old transit route via Ukraine, Putin said.
The president added that he is aware that, according to Gazprom’s calculations, it would reduce CO2 emissions from gas transit and would be around $3 billion cheaper per year. However, Putin believes that honoring long-term commitments is more important than quick financial gain.”
RT
so it would seem to amount to win, win for Russia.
That Putin is the Ultimate Stratagest.Pigeon English, michael’s about right, try this chart:
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1445389590894948360
Michael, thanks for the correction; considering the time scale, the conversion to electricity generation by gas must have started under the Conservatives. Blair’s lot continued and expanded it, and rolled out the gas boilers in homes though. Maybe British Gas should never have been privatised?
– “What do the poorer countries/people do, freeze to death, this Winter?”
How about we Insulate Britain? It’d stop those protesters from blocking the motorways too.
But that’s too slow, it’s too late for this winter. Many deaths from freezing can be avoided if more people congregate in fewer buildings.
“Energy bills could rise by hundreds of pounds”
On Radio Four just now they claimed that household gas bills would probably rise by four hundred pounds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58824121It seems, that just with Mr. Putin saying he will look at the possibility of increasing Natural Gas to Europe, has started to calm the market.
Mr. Putin has claimed by using the new pipeline directly from Russia to Germany, Carbon waste will be reduced, over increased pumping via old infrastructure passing through Ukraine.
However he will allow the present gas flow from Russia, via Ukraine to continue, so as to not upset Ukraine, too much but he does not see increase of flow through Ukraine, without new infrastructure. Putin claims there is only a small difference between gas production and sales, he thinks the current problems are mostly speculation. They are already supplying Europe with slightly more than last year.
What he has not claimed, is that gas flow from Russia to Europe is back up to pre-pandemic levels?Natural gas – understanding the massive variations in demand:
https://twitter.com/ntsafos/status/1445699709889388544
– “We often think of gas as balancing intermittent renewables, and sure it can do that. But its chief function in many modern economies is to manage seasonal variations in demand. And these can be huge.”
In this thread, note the graph comparing UK demand for natural gas, which varies by a factor of 4, against demand for electricity, varying by less than a factor of 2.
“Environmental group Greenpeace has lost its case against the UK government over a North Sea oil field permit.
Permission to drill the Vorlich site off Aberdeen was given to BP in 2018.
Greenpeace argued in Scotland’s highest civil court there had been “a myriad of failures in the public consultation” and the permit did not consider the climate impacts of burning fossil fuel.
The Court of Session ruling means operations will continue at the field. Greenpeace plans to appeal.
The U.K. government welcomed the outcome.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-58828308
“Ruth Crawford QC for Greenpeace said UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng had been “deprived” of information about the environmental impact of the development.
Miss. Crawford said Greenpeace wanted proper public participation in important developments such as the Vorlich”
Too useful, at the moment to leave in the ground.oilfield. We are running out of energy; just look at people waiting for diesel at fuel stations.
While the UK is 50% self sufficient in gas, storage of gas is bad.
In the market you use reserves to mitigate shortage and create “extra supply”.
In the following link there is a chart with storage capacity: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58637094.Nevertheless, someone is speculating big time!
Is it Russia, to put pressure on Germany and EU to approve/certify North stream 2?
It is completed but not “certified” OR
is everyone counting that when NS2 gets done, gas will be even cheaper and not buying reserves on “high price”?About 20% of UK gas imports are LNG.
The biggest LNG importers are Japan, China and other Asian countries.
The supply of LNG is stable if not increased, so there is no justification for such a massive increase!ET, you started this thread with a concern that renewable electricity generation would use too much land area. Here’s a possible solution – agrivoltaics; using spaced solar panels to help protect certain crops from wind, storms and excess solar heat:
Solar Panels Plus Farming? Agrivoltaics Explained – YouTube, 12:52.
That video references another by Just Have a Think which I haven’t yet watched.
Clark
“Undecided”and “Just have a think” always make me excited
