SARS cov2 and Covid 19


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  • #63465
    Duck

    SA “I think I addressed these issues in my answer to Steph.”

    No, you didn’t. The “issue” is that the story you linked to describes a common winter phenomenon and attributes it to Covid-19 without any evidence whatsoever.

    You cited the story as evidence that claims of false-positive tests must be untrue because the hospital was full of Covid patients. The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.

    #63467
    SA

    Duck

    “You cited the story as evidence that claims of false-positive tests must be untrue because the hospital was full of Covid patients. The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.”

    I did not cite this story as evidence that the claims that false tests must be untrue, this is silly and you know it, you have combined two different conversations and came up with your own manufactured conclusion. I have provided links to a scientist who explains why this canard that the PCR gives high false positive rates is a myth, above and if you care to have an intelligent discussion about that then please read that article and tell me why it is part of the grand conspiracy to deceive.
    As to the story about the ambulances in the hospital car park, yes this is similar what we see in years of bad flu but as I mention this is actually due to Covid not the flu. Of course you will tell me that this reference is of course a manufactured deception.
    Now I think that if you want to continue to converse, you need to rethink your startegy. If you feel that we are all here part of a deception or falling for a deception I will ask you as a start to tell me exactly what you mean by this. I will accept no you tube references or those from OffGuardian or any other such one sided websites. If you have scientific references then perhaps that would make a good start.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by modbot.
    #63469
    SA

    Steph
    December 17, 2020 at 17:38#63464
    Let it pass. I take that to mean that you no longer wish to doubt that the PCR is a reliable test for diagnosis of individuals who have become infected with SARS cov2 and have abandoned your original belief that the high number of positive individuals is an artefact.

    #63471
    Steph

    SA – ‘Let it pass’

    No, you may take it that I am happy to accept that there is no significance in the WHO issuing a caution at this point!

    #63472
    SA

    Steph
    December 17, 2020 at 17:31#63462

    The reason why the world panicked is that the initial data from China showed a very quickly multiplying infection and in a matter of a few weeks 86,000 individuals were diagnosed with just over 4000 deaths. The kinetics of the infection and the novelty of the virus revealed that this virus had the capacity to cause a pandemic. You do appreciate that this was a truly frightening situation, a new virus with no known immunity in the population with a mortality rate of about 5% and with an exponential spreading rate of doubling of a few days is extremely scary. You do not have to wait for this to be established to act. We have had similar scares with SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2012 but the outbreaks were contained because vigorous measures were taken. Now this is the crucial bit to understand because if you do not agree then it is futile to continue explaining, do you see why this is scary and why there was panic?

    #63474
    SA

    Steph
    December 17, 2020 at 19:10#63471

    You dismissed my post with links to why the supposedly high PCR false positive rate without comment so you still think that there is a high false positive rate for PCR?

    #63475
    Steph

    ‘have abandoned your original belief that the high number of positive individuals is an artefact’

    I don’t have such a belief. But this is rapidly spiralling downhill again. I’m off.

    #63483
    mods-cm-org

    A reply in this thread was suspended because it overstepped the line between rational debate and taunting sarcasm. The same points could be expressed with a more cordial tone.

    Ideally all contributors should show respect for the personal perspectives of others without resorting to taunting with stereotypes. It would be unfortunate if anyone wished to duck out of the debate due to perceived insults. It may help to adopt a spirit of joint enquiry. We’re all trying to make sense of complex issues.

    The analysis and advice from ET earlier in the thread was both wise and prescient.

    #63492
    Steph

    mods-cm-org If only. Sincere and deeply embarrassed apologies.

    #63496
    Steph

    To other posters also. I was quite rightly slapped down by the mods for my sarcastic outburst, and I’m grateful that it has been removed. Apologies to all.
    I can only plead frustration, although that is a very poor excuse for bad behaviour. I have found it exasperating trying to express an opinion or proffer any contribution here. I think this is, as we may probably all agree now, because I have misread the intention and purpose of the thread. Although I was horribly sarcastic in my last post, this really isn’t the right place to post differing opinions of a more general nature, and that has been clearly stated by the thread initiator.
    Now, although I feel like a bad actor that continually claims this is their last performance ever, I really shall leave the floor.

    #63498
    Duck

    SA: “I did not cite this story as evidence that the claims that false tests must be untrue, this is silly and you know it …”

    To be clear about what I actually said:

    “You cited the story as evidence that claims of false-positive tests must be untrue because the hospital was full of Covid patients. “

    I based my remark on this statement of yours:

    “Apparently many ambulances were seen in the hospital grounds and patients were treated in the ambulances because the hospital was full. Do you think these patients probably had false positive tests for SARS cov2?”

    What did you mean if it wasn’t what I suggested?

    #63500
    Clark

    So let’s take a look at what Duck has done here by comparing the article about Northern Ireland against the 2018 Guardian article linked in supposed refutation.

    Northern Ireland – “We are providing care in the car park”

    Guardian article – “…waiting to enter an A&E unit to be assessed and treated”

    Waiting versus treatment. Actually treating people in ambulances seems a far more desperate measure.

    Northern Ireland – “A line of more than a dozen ambulances – still with engines on to keep the patients aboard warm – was filmed outside Antrim Area Hospital.”

    Guardian article – “In all, 16,900 people […] were stuck in the backs of ambulances waiting to enter an A&E unit to be assessed and treated in the week from Christmas Day to New Year’s Eve. Of those, 4,700 – again the most in any week this winter – had to endure a delay of at least an hour”

    So this was over an entire week, ie. 168 hours. There are 180 Type 1 A&E units in England; that’s 30,240 A&E hours. 16,900 minus 4,700 equals 12,200 who waited less than an hour, so at any given time we’d find an average of 12,200 divided by 30,240 equals 0.4 ambulances outside each A&E at maximum, if they’d all waited one instant less than an hour.

    We can’t perform the above estimate for the people who waited more than an hour because the article doesn’t tell us how long they waited, but 12,200 is 2.6 times 4,700; they’d have had to have waited over two and a half hours each, on average, just to make another 0.4 ambulances.

    Clearly the situation at Antrim hospital was well over ten times worse

    And that’s over ten times worse than the worst week in England, according to the Guardian article.

    Duck claimed – ‘The story offers no connection between “spike in Covid-19 cases” and “exited lockdown” but allows us to assume it.’

    Duck could have gone looking for the covid-19 figures for Northern Ireland, but didn’t bother; they are here. You can see that suspected covid cases have risen from 92 on Dec 13 to 188 on Dec 16, just over doubling in three days.

    Duck berates the article for lack of evidence but neglects to find relevant evidence himself. Worse, he makes no effort to compare what evidence he does present against the evidence he’s belittling. He describes the article as “a masterpiece of innuendo and misdirection”, alleging deliberate mendacity. I would have more justification in alleging psychological projection against Duck.

    #63501
    Clark

    Duck, have you posted at this site with any other username?

    #63505
    Clark

    Steph:

    22:15 – “I have found it exasperating trying to express an opinion or proffer any contribution here. I think this is, as we may probably all agree now, because I have misread the intention and purpose of the thread.”

    15:26 – “SA […] when you say ‘We can argue as to whether the lockdown is appropriate or has been carried out appropriately but that is another discussion’ I have to say that this is the only discussion I have ever been trying to have!”

    Steph, the problem you’re having is that you’re picking up your anti-lockdown arguments from sites that have been promoting conspiracy theory, so you’ve been asking questions about all the same non-issues as they do. This is why I’ve been trying to warn you about conspiracy theory, there really is such a thing, it’s a hopelessly flawed style of thinking and a complete waste of time. No wonder you’re frustrated.

    I regret what happened to your neighbour and I apologise for overlooking that in my reply to your description of your personal situation days ago. That reply was difficult to write the first time, worse the second time when my first attempt was lost, and it really hurt and disheartened me that you found it patronising because I tried to write it with compassion.

    The lockdown restrictions were crap. What we needed to do was compartmentalise, and thereby prevent the infection from spreading. We had the whole of February and most of March to prepare. We could have beaten this, and we still could.

    Compare the current paltry efforts of our government against the sweeping changes made for WWII – conscription, rationing, evacuation of children to the countryside, commandeering of resources, blackout, re-purposing of industry; not a single aspect of life was left unchanged. The essential problem is that this government is trying to change things as little as possible. Neoliberalism had won, or so they thought, and they were very happy about that. Then suddenly this virus came along… Heck, they’re the Brexit party, that was the mandate they were elected on, and they didn’t even close the airports! The virus was obviously travelling the world by airliner; more and more politicians, celebrities and sports stars were reported as having it every day. Why didn’t the “Control Our Borders” party control the borders? Because they and their buddies are the bloody Jet Set!

    SA, ET, Dr Edd, myself – obviously we’re not the scientific community, but that domain is certainly where we’re most at home. If you stop trying to promote the nonsense coming from sites like Swiss Propaganda Research, OffGuardian and UK Column, and just start discussing with us instead, we should all get along fine. Commenters like Duck really have nothing to offer but strife because they’re at odds with reality itself.

    #63508
    ET

    @Clark

    ” If you stop trying to promote the nonsense……………”

    That is a loaded phrase that is almost guarenteed to get people’s back up. I understand that you are passionate about where you think science/logic should lead. It is never just so straight forward. You are trying to make an argument not denigrate someone else’s. So stop using phrases that will simply annoy people. Be more subtle.

    #63523
    Clark

    ET, thanks.

    Steph, I’m sorry if that phrase upset you.

    ET, you wrote; “I understand that you are passionate about where you think science/logic should lead”, but a conspiracy theorist will interpret that as an admission of conspiracy between us, and now me pointing it out will just be interpreted as an attempt to cover up!

    What I’m passionate about is that we start from the evidence, apply logic to it and accept whatever that leads to.

    I’m suffering compassion fatigue, and I’m angry. I’m angry with the many governments that ignored the emergency until the last moment, thereby turning it into a crisis, and then exploited that crisis. Just a couple of days ago, some friends of mine attempted to hold a protest about new plans to drill for gas. They all wore masks, observed social distancing and did not enter the council offices where they demonstrated. Within five minutes police arrived and dispersed them with threats of arrest under the coronavirus act, while across the road people were crowded into stuffy cafés. That’s just a tiny personal example; the entire protest was less than a dozen people. The corruption of Westminster handing out mega-contracts for PPE and contact tracing software is very widely known.

    And I have a more focussed anger at the likes of Yeadon with his “what they are not telling you” and “this is all basic textbook stuff” – very reminiscent of David Chandler. Yeadon now has modest fame; none of us would ever have heard of him had he not posted that stuff on Delingpole’s blog. Craig is a genuine whistleblower; he tried to stop UK collusion with the Uzbek government’s torture of Muslims by appealing through the official channels. He repeatedly complained to the FCO, and he gave evidence to a Select Committee, and so Jack Straw sacked him and stitched him up on false disciplinary charges; only after all that did some third party leak Craig’s story to the press. Has Yeadon even published on medrxiv? Either Yeadon is a fake whistleblower, or there’s a civilian conspiracy so vast that we may as well all kill ourselves, though more likely we’ll end up killing each other, if the virus doesn’t get us first. What a miserably depressing mess.

    #63525
    Clark
    #63527
    N_

    And the “new strain” of the SARS virus (has it got a name yet? shall we call it SARSCoV3 or SARSCov2.1?) originated where? Where was it even first reported? In Britain the answer may be Kent. Cue a “Chinese slaves in the back of a lorry” story?

    #63530
    N_

    And when was the first talk of cutting Kent off?

    This prospect was labelled in the media with the joky word “Kexit” [*], but the idea of isolating Kent from the rest of Britain “to help with lorry congestion” by creating an “internal border” (essentially converting the county into a kind of <b>bonded warehouse</b>) was not intended humorously. It is government policy to introduce Kent Access Permits on 1 January.

    This county, as far as I can tell, was the first place in Britain that the “new strain” was reported.

    Coincidence?

    Notes
    *) Which is even a little bit risqué for some markets. As in “drop your kecks”.

    #63537
    Clark

    I’m fatigued, and angry, and I’m scared.

    Covid-19 is scary enough itself, but the UK is also facing potential disruption from Brexit, and the US, the largest military power ever by an order of magnitude, is seemingly on the verge of civil war.

    Government is not remotely fit for purpose. We, the people, desperately need to organise for ourselves, but with the preponderance of conspiracy theory we are not fit to do so.

    #63559
    SA

    Duck @December 17, 2020 at 23:09#63498

    “I based my remark on this statement of yours:

    “Apparently many ambulances were seen in the hospital grounds and patients were treated in the ambulances because the hospital was full. Do you think these patients probably had false positive tests for SARS cov2?”

    What did you mean if it wasn’t what I suggested?”

    Duck, you entered this particular string of discussion after a series of posts between myself and Steph. My post about the ambulances in Antrim was part of the discussion that Steph came back into the thread with a post which contained only a reference to a WHO caution with regards to the use of the PCR. The mods commented on this and her lack of comment. In other posts she also raised doubt about the seriousness of Covid 19. So, this was a composite discussion. The discussion about whether the PCR is reliable or just gives a lot of false positive results is a favourite one amongst those who think that Covid-19 is not serious, and I addressed this in a separate post, December 17, 2020 at 15:42#63452. Pointing to this blog. The “false-positive PCR” problem is not a problem – Virology Down Under
    To which neither Steph nor you posted any comments. This was followed by your post in which you used terminology often associated with those who wish to ignore the seriousness of the pandemic which were:

    “I’m sure you don’t mean to but you’re guilty of sensationalist fearmongering.”

    You then went on to analyse the Antrim episode, which I assume that you agree is real, but that it is not due to Covid-19 and in your words:

    “I can state with certainty that in my neck of the woods, that pressure is due to coronavirus policy rather than medical concerns. Two wards in my local hospital are reserved exclusively for covid patients. I know for a fact that they have been barely used.”

    So my interpretation of what your post and the one that follows is that you believe I am “…guilty of sensationalist fearmongering” and later you make this allegation:

    “The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.”

    So I would like you to explain to me why exactly do you think there is a deception? And the meaning of the question is directed both at this particular incident and also about generally what you think the purpose of the deception is. In other words, I would like to hear your case in full to substantiate your allegations. Also I would like to ask your opinion as to whether, in your view the PCR is a reliable test or not, and the context in which you think it may be unreliable and your reasons. I look forward hopefully to a response that does not impute my motives for my questions and posts.

    #63565
    SA

    Clark @December 18, 2020 at 10:39#63537

    “I’m fatigued, and angry, and I’m scared.”

    Take a break man. It is a very difficult time of the year with an increase of SAD and with the divided country ruled by hapless and uncaring Tories. The degree of corruption has been exposed by the office of National Audit and more recently by the NYT. And yet this does not seem to translate to any resistance and this is why I find the discussions going on about unreliability of PCR and that Covid-19 is not a threat so juvenile and puerile. Those who devote their energies in this direction appear to deflect from the real issue which is that the pandemic is real but is extremely poorly managed by many countries and that the primary problem here is that in fact neoliberal capitalism has destroyed such basics of society and infrastructure as to make it difficult to manage this pandemic as it should be on well tried and tested manner established over many years. My belief is that there is no capitalist way out of this mess, only a socialist one and that is why the blinkered view of many, including those who voted for Brexit, does not see the consequences of their vote.
    Clark, don’t take these negative views of others as a personal matter, they are not directed at you. People are also trying to cope with the disruption, including loss of livelihood and inability to see loved ones in difficult times. They too are scared but wish to pretend that this could just be wished away. Have pity and not be angry at such people.

    #63603
    Clark

    SA, I’m OK thanks. Ignoring it gives me temporary respite, but won’t make it go away. Likewise the personal stuff stings briefly and then passes, but then it’s back to the background. The current human situation is tragic. Not just the pandemic; the wilful idiocy that is making it worse than it could have been.

    #63604
    Clark

    “Duck”, so do you therefore assert that Wendy Magowan, medical director of the Northern Health and Social Care Trust (whose quoted words are the basis of the article you linked), is definitely part of the conspiracy? There would have to be a lot of others like her, so who else? Sweden seems to be having a second wave; I suppose you maintain that this also is fabricated, so who’s responsible for that one? What about countries that seem to have successfully suppressed or greatly controlled infection? How is the deception achieved in those cases? Can you give me an estimate of the number of people in this conspiracy? It would seem to have to be hundreds at least, and more probably tens of thousands; does this seem about right?

    #63615
    N_

    They’re making it increasingly obvious now: BBC: “Covid: Will the UK live under some form of lockdown until mass vaccination? – BBC Newsnight“.

    It’s a very short jump from there to “If we can’t inject you, we won’t let you out”.

    Added to that, they won’t want many people leaving their accommodation for long when the food shelves in the shops run bare.

    #63619
    Duck

    SA, a summary

    I claimed your story about Antrim ambulances was scaremongering, sensationally linking an ordinary occurrence with covid without offering ANY evidence, and that by sharing it, you were also scaremongering. I claimed the story sought to deceive but specifically excluded you from being part of the deception. You seemed to think it proved some point but I’m still waiting to hear what.

    You have responded with various misinterpretations of what I said and demanded that I respond to them. If I do answer any of those questions, it’ll be in my own time and in the context of a dialogue I have chosen to enter, and not to justify myself in a role you have created for me based on your preconceptions.

    #63627
    Clark

    “in the context of a dialogue I have chosen to enter…”

    In other words, “I set the agenda”.

    How widespread is this “deception”, Duck? What proportion of the population should I be suspicious of?

    #63628
    Clark

    And didn’t you used to post here as Node?

    #63629
    Clark

    And “Duck”, if this is a deception, how come the graphs are so consistent with an epidemic?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    See how the death rate follows the infection rate after a delay? How do your conspirators predict what false infection rate to announce each day such that the death rate will follow it two or three weeks later? Are they psychic? We may as well give up, we haven’t a chance against such superior beings. Oh, but giving up is what you advise anyway.

    Oh yes, and you wrote this:

    “I can state with certainty that in my neck of the woods, that pressure is due to coronavirus policy rather than medical concerns”

    So what (does the conspiracy claim) your local infection rate is then? ‘Cos your claim is meaningless until we know that.

    Oh I know, just ignore the questions; “I set the agenda”.

    #63655
    SA

    Duck
    These are quotes from your previous posts

    “SA, I’m sure you don’t mean to but you’re guilty of sensationalist fearmongering.”
    “The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.”
    “You have responded with various misinterpretations of what I said and demanded that I respond to them. If I do answer any of those questions, it’ll be in my own time and in the context of a dialogue I have chosen to enter, and not to justify myself in a role you have created for me based on your preconceptions.”

    You seem to latch on to one aspect which is that of the Antrim Ambulances post and quote that as an example of deception and now wish to limit discussions to only answer questions of your choice. Not really cherry picking, more like duck and dive.

    The discussion was started in answer to what Steph was talking about, the reliability of the PCR test in diagnosis. Since this is the very starting point of how you determine whether the patients stuck in ambulances and treated in ambulances, unlike the ‘normal’ situation in some winters where a hospital may be full and ambulances may wait to transfer patients to A&E but treatment of patients does not start in such a manner and to such an extent in the ambulances. Your comment trivializes this and calls it sensationalism of ‘normal’ situation. OK let us take the scenario as it is and say that it is a very bad case of the usual winter pressures, much worse than normal and that all of this is due to some respiratory infection. Then we have to decide why there is a surge on this scale. Normally the announcement would be made that this is due to a rise in the seasonal ‘flu, or that there is a new strain resistant to the vaccine and so on. But on this occasion, whether you want to call it ‘normal’ or not the medical diagnosis is that of Covid-19. So what it seem to say (correct me if I misrepresent what you insinuate) is that this is all normal and we should not panic because this happens every year with the ‘flu. If this is correct then you imply that the hospitals either got the diagnosis wrong or that infections with SARS cov2 causing Covid-19 is a myth and the virus does not exist, or that Covid-19 is no worse than the ‘flu. So will you be kind enough to answer which of these you mean? This is important because we can then see the relevance as to where the PCR comes in.

    #63658
    SA

    Duck
    “The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.”

    This statement has a very clear meaning, that you kindly and patronisingly giving me the benefit of the doubt and that I have been duped rather than deliberately collaborating with the deception. Oh thank you so much, such kindness. And you also need to explain what the deception is. Sorry, you can of course pick and choose which questions you wish to answer while throwing insults around.

    #63661
    ET

    ONS ALL deaths figures up to Dec 4 week 49
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    UK Gov dashboard:
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    All the data needed for anyone wishing to see is there. Clark has already summarised it in aseveral posts. The excess deaths over the 5 year average correlate well with the numbers of covid related deaths/people tested positive/hospital admissions/patients in hospital in both peaks and troughs. If you have a credible alternative explaination for this correlation then please propose it and make your argument supported by facts. Please don’t just point to someone elses argument, make it yourself.

    #63666
    Clark

    “I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.”

    Ripley, Aliens.

    This must be how other countries feel about the UK since our inadequate lockdown selected for a new strain that causes ADE. We are filthy, a pariah.

    #63667
    Clark

    So here’s what happened. A new strain arose that was more infectious; that means that its R number is higher. Because overall infection prevalence was rising a short, weak lockdown was ordered, which reduced the average R – that is, R for all strains together – to about 0.8, so overall infection prevalence fell. But R for the new strain was higher, so it remained above 1, so while the original strain got reduced, the new strain increased. When the “lockdown” ended, the new strain had been given a head start.

    Brilliant, eh? Looks like France might have closed its borders to trucks from the UK:

    “We can’t lock down it’ll destroy the economy!”

    Idiots.

    #63668
    Clark

    Highways England
    @HighwaysSEAST
    ·
    2h
    Be prepared for long delays & ensure you’ve got food & drink if planning on travelling to @Port_of_Dover today. There’s long delays on #A2 from Lydden Hill affecting all travellers. Also delays to freight traffic on #A20 from #M20 J13. Also delays for freight accessing @LeShuttle

    #63669
    SA

    And Clark and E.T. there are some who say that Covid is not the problem it is that lockdown that is the cause of the problem. Figure that one out.

    #63670
    Clark

    SA, 10:39“…you kindly and patronisingly giving me the benefit of the doubt and that I have been duped rather than deliberately collaborating with the deception. Oh thank you so much, such kindness.”

    These possibilities are the only two ever granted by conspiracy theorists – unless you agree with them, you’re either stupid or evil. Promoting conspiracy theory is all about feeling morally and intellectually superior.

    #63671
    ET

    It’s not good news. Multple times now after taunting others the UK gov has had to eat their collective hats in regard to covid. It is bizarre. In fairness, it isn’t just the UK. Advice to UK government (and other countries), tell the f***ing truth, good, bad or indifferent. Don’t paint bright future pictures when you cannot know. It ruins your crediblity for when you actually really need credibility.

    ps. (in jest :D) I need to visit an optician, this damned reCAPTCHA thing is hard sometimes!

    #63673
    Clark

    Inadequate “lockdown” is similar to not completing a course of antibiotics. It applies selection pressure; the more susceptible pathogens are killed off, leaving the resistant ones to spawn further generations.

    #63674
    Clark

    “tell the f***ing truth”

    That’s our First Demand in Extinction Rebellion.

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