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Here is the paper on ADE:
– These findings suggest that the production of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infectivity-enhancing site could be considered as a possible exacerbating factors for COVID-19 and that a spike protein lacking such antibody epitopes may be required for safe vaccine development, especially for individuals with pre-existing enhancing antibodies.
Roland Baker, Molecular Genetics, U.C. Berkeley Alumnus:
– “Well I’m terrified now.”
Twitter @RolandBakerIII, 20 hours ago.
– “tell the f***ing truth, good, bad or indifferent. Don’t paint bright future pictures when you cannot know. It ruins your crediblity for when you actually really need credibility.”
This is why I blame government and the “news” media for the rise of conspiracy theory. Conspiracy theorists are supremely annoying and their messages can cause actual harm, but they are a symptom not the cause; they are a reaction against the dishonesty of government and media. They mistake reaction for true independence of mind.
CTs: you’re right not to believe, but don’t just reflexively disbelieve either.
So basically all the squillions the state handed over to Big Pharma for vaccines didn’t protect anyone much at all because a new strain appeared, even before the Army got their syringes out on council estates, in supermarket car parks, and in football stadia. Funny the government didn’t realise what the “2” meant in “SARSCoV2”. SARS has already mutated into another strain. That’s what the big virus is that’s going around, that everyone’s been talking about for 9 months.
The new strain has been impressively labelled “VUI202012/01”, standing for “Variant Under Investigation No.1 of December 2020”. Something wrong with the existing number space, was there? The public relations boys decided “SARSCoV3” or “SARSCoV2.1” wouldn’t sent the right message?
So mRNA vaccines, a type never before used on humans (and which involve stimulating healthy body cells to produce “harmless” rather virus-like entities) didn’t work…. Or maybe they did work, depending on what the aim was…
Meanwhile we’re not supposed to gather in groups of more than two, under the watchful eye of the police and army, while another lockdown is imposed and the only shops that stay open are the supermarkets which it doesn’t seem will have their usual stocks of vegetables… AND THEN SOME.
According to Nick Loman, the profe$$or of microbial genomic$ and bioinformation at the Univer$ity of Birmingham (who is connected with a venture at the university called “Loman Labs”) who was cited in the Briti$h Medical Journal on 16 December 2020, the variant was first spotted in late September and now accounts for 20% of viruses sequenced in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, and 3% in Suffolk. “There are no data to suggest it had been imported from abroad, so it is likely to have evolved in the UK.”
Whoopsadaisy!
What were the ABSOLUTE numbers of cases reported in British local authority areas in, say, the first week and month after the first case was reported? (Indeed where was the first case reported?)
And out of interest, how many cases have there been near Porton Down?
Did the Event 201 pandemic “exercise” model the mutation of a more infectious strain? Just asking.
One point that needs stressing is that Britain seems to be heading for a central role in the spread of the new strain, VUI202012/01. What exactly this role will entail is unclear, but for obvious reasons many eyes will be on this soon-to-be-failed state.
Britain was the birthplace of extermination merchants Thomas Malthus, Francis Galton, Herbert Spencer, and H G Wells. It has never been made illegal to praise the work of these guys in the way that since 1945 it has been against the law in Germany to praise Nazism. Spray a bit of paint on a statue to mass murderer Winston Churchill and they lock you in jail in Britain.
Guess what happens to islands on which a killer virus is spreading that has yet to spread much outside those islands.
N_, the problem was inadequate caution; these vaccines were rushed to market. Time and time again we heard the prime minister and his closest aides telling us how the UK would be a “world leader”; “we” stood to make a lot of money from covid-19. Well now we’re a world leader in deadly filth.
1) GET THE INFECTIONS DOWN TO SMALL NUMBERS – Big Bad China actually did this. So did Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand and, eventually, Australia.
2) (you now have time for) Everything else.
Vaccines have to be targeted, so stop the bloody target from moving, ie. evolving, ie. diversifying.
This necessitates regrettable but TEMPORARY restrictions upon civil liberties. The government could have tied the end of restrictions to a specified reduction of infection prevalence, eg. “these restrictions will apply only until we have X or less infections and Y or less deaths per week – that’s our collective goal, population and government together”.
It also necessitates the government giving the population the MEANS to observe restrictions, ie. a guaranteed income.
Scotland has closed the border with England.
Mid 20th century notice at Dover:
FOG IN CHANNEL
CONTINENT ISOLATED– “Guess what happens to islands on which a killer virus is spreading that has yet to spread much outside those islands.”
– “I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.”
Ripley, Aliens.
Here’s how the new strain has been doing:
MK LHL testing data showing increasing prevalence of H69/V70 variant in positive test data – which is detected incidentally by the commonly used 3-gene PCR test. pic.twitter.com/1U0pVR9Bhs
— Tony Cox (@The_Soup_Dragon) December 19, 2020
Look how it kept going up during the “schools open lockdown” while overall prevalence was falling.
MODS – I’m trying to get the graph to embed.
—
[ Mod: Your first attempt seems to have been successful. ]Brexit, Britain’s exit from the EU, seems likely to morph into England’s exit from the rest of the world.
Mass exodus from London in progress. But you can’t run away from yourself: Bob Marley – “Running Away” (YouTube, 4m 16s).
Hiya Clark… Fascinating Thread you all have here. Great stuff… I can’t help thinking this would be a Squonk realm here.
The border closed…A vital move..But Took Scot.gove a wee bit too long… As many people could already be on the move.
Stay Safe everyone.
” Mass exodus from London in progress”.. I’ve been trying to pin down a source for this Nonsense…Cos it’s driving my daughter to distraction.
I tried to find who first called VUI202012/01 a variant, given that the position of various protein molecules on the virus varies a fair bit without that term being used. The answer seems to be British kingdom scientists. (Reuters). Why do they name it after the month of December when according to the BMJ it was first noticed in September?
What a Christmas this looks like being! Britain is unusual in that traditionally many or most people in employment stay away from their paid work from Christmas Day until after New Year.
Meanwhile there is a Great Conjunction right now between Jupiter and Saturn. The apparent motion of both planets is slow, so it’s not just a one-night thing, but it will be especially cool to observe on Monday, the day of the winter solstice. (Look southwest close to the horizon after sunset.) Such a conjunction also occurred in 7BC and is thought by some to be referenced in the story of the “Star of Jerusalem” that led “wise men” or “kings” to where a family of Palestinian refugees (don’t forget this) had just had a baby.
Meanwhile in Kent there are huge queues of lorries waiting to leave the country.
The Port of Dover’s chief executive Doug Bannister says the rush in freight in the run-up to Christmas could mean that the following weeks were quieter. Yes indeed it could. No freight companies want their lorries stuck in a country where the economy has collapsed. The queues are going out, not coming in. I don’t believe they are mostly caused by British companies “stockpiling”, i.e. buying more stuff from the continent than they would do usually. They’re more likely to be caused by companies saying hey let’s play it safe and get our lorries somewhere they will actually be able to transport stuff and continue to bring us some income when Britain goes “pop”, i.e. let’s get them to the continent ASAP.
Unusually high concentrations of people in an area during an epidemic are surely a bad idea? Lorry drivers have to pee and eat like the rest of us…
Brian, good to see you. Here you go:
And Brian, Squonk is with us in spirit; you didn’t think I could find all these links on my own, did you?
REMINDER:
Full page adverts in all major UK newspapers near the end of February 2020:
– “THE GOVERNMENT AND THE NHS ARE WELL PREPARED FOR THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS”
I just laughed. Yeah, right!
@N_ “So basically all the squillions the state handed over to Big Pharma for vaccines didn’t protect anyone much at all because a new strain appeared”
We don’t know it isn’t effective as yet, or at least, as effective as the pfizer vaccine was shown to be against the previous strains. Let’s not yet jump to conclusions. Granted, it isn’t good news. Kinda glad I moved away from London some time ago even though I miss it lots.
Cheers for the link Clark..I see now that some big name MSM are carrying the story. Been looking around..
I found this on too – from a trucker’s Twitter –ciaran the euro courier 🇪🇺 🇮🇪
@donnyc1975
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1h
Friend just called me – he’s on his way to London with pallets of Covid tests and apparently the A303 is packed , fleet services heaving and the M3 solid . Johnson’s last minute advice created panic and a mass exodus helping spread the virus to parts of the U.K. with low ratesFriend just called me – he’s on his way to London with pallets of Covid tests and apparently the A303 is packed , fleet services heaving and the M3 solid . Johnson’s last minute advice created panic and a mass exodus helping spread the virus to parts of the U.K. with low rates
— ciaran the euro courier ???? (@vanmaneuro) December 19, 2020
Thank too for letting me know Squonk is with us.. Great Stuff.. Was just thinking about Squounk earlier.
Oliver Johnson is calling the illness from the new strain COVID-20. Lots of informative maths on his Twitter stream, plus he wrote this:
– “Can Twitter roll out a black dunce’s cap mark to quickly identify Oxford PPE grads on here, so we don’t waste time reading their idiot opinions?”
ET, the danger is that some vaccinated people might suffer ADE (antibody dependent enhancement) if they get infected by the new strain, which is rapidly becoming the dominant strain. If I have interpreted that paper correctly (which isn’t particularly likely), the vaccine would prevent infection in people predisposed to mild covid, but through ADE would lead to worse covid in those predisposed to serious covid.
There are possible indications of sudden rises of hospitalisation in areas which had high prevalence in the first wave. This is the opposite of what we’d expect from acquired immunity, and may indicate ADE – those with mild or symptomless infection in the first wave requiring hospitalisation in this wave.
If this is so, those promoting herd immunity through real infection have got it entirely the wrong way around. So let’s keep an eye on the data while hoping this isn’t the case.
Local authorities should rebel against the government, declare local independence and close their borders to the greatest extent possible*. We need to compartmentalise, now!
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/green-zones
* Obviously, infrastructure has become increasingly centralised under neoliberalism, and critical supplies need to get through until they can be produced locally. But we need to stop supplying the virus with free transport.
We need job-swap schemes so that people can work as near as possible to where they live, and accommodation swap schemes so that other people can stay near where they work. We need accommodation-swap schemes so that people with compatible risk profiles can share company and living space.
We need food distribution to local outdoor distribution points, and stop people going to those indoor virus-exchange centres called supermarkets.
We need citizens’ incomes so people can stop working when they feel ill, and four-day-on-ten-day-off work cycles so that symptoms have time to manifest between work periods; with non-essential work shut down we have the person-hours for this.
These are all types of compartmentalisation.
None of this is rocket science; it just contradicts the dominant ideology. But then so does rationing, commandeering, evacuation of urban children to rural locations, and re-purposing of industry, as in WWII; are we saying that such measures were wrong?
We need to suspend rent and other fixed costs for the duration of the emergency so that people and companies don’t go bankrupt.
Clark
There are possible indications of sudden rises of hospitalisation in areas which had high prevalence in the first wave. This is the opposite of what we’d expect from acquired immunity, and may indicate ADE – those with mild or symptomless infection in the first wave requiring hospitalisation in this wave.
Thanks for this. On My evidence, that would seem correct.
My area Inverclyde, had the Highest Positive rates in the first Wave ( in Scotland ).. But in this Second Wave, the Lowest.. Till maybe four / five weeks ago..When it’s been racing here again.. We feel that one of the reasons is that people were coming here in Droves to shop..because we were Tier 2. Whilst places like Glasgow, and Ayrshire, were T-3…We were Surrounded by T-3, I think Dumbarton Too.
I’ve been shielding Again for three weeks now..I was dreading it at this time of year Dark Dark Wet.. Hard going .. But DOUNE Will Be A Huge Boon 2021…HUGE OPEN FIELDS…Rivers Mountains, Colours, Music, Fire, A Teeny bit of Rain. Friends..JOY.. Aye I’ve Gotta Keep this Image.“ET, the danger is that some vaccinated people might suffer ADE………….”
Perhaps, perhaps not, we just don’t currently know. The human immune response is very strong and nuanced. I’ll put my money on humans to win. Prepare for the worst whilst hoping for the best. The history of all other pandemics is that they ended. No need to write off the human race or the UK yet. It isn’t THAT bad. I have 3 siblings in UK, 2 of whom are now in tier 4, that has kinda messed up their Christmas plans. They will cope. I am not leaving my coronavirus free haven. Where I live the borders are closed. Everywhere else, close your fecking borders.
Tier 4 but without closing the borders is meaningless. When will the government learn that voluntary wishy washy measures are becoming worthless? Voluntary observation of self isolation and all the other measures are only now nominally observed. Also will there be escalating tiers? When will we get to tier 10?
Thanks for these comments.
Brian – “But in this Second Wave, the Lowest.. Till maybe four / five weeks ago..When it’s been racing here again.. We feel that one of the reasons is that people were coming here in Droves to shop..because we were Tier 2. Whilst places like Glasgow, and Ayrshire, were T-3…We were Surrounded by T-3”
Indeed, the behaviour of infection in a mobile population is a highly complex system; difficult to separate cause from effect. As a friend e-mailed me this morning:
– “One person, one key, one lock; open or shut easy. 5,000 people, 5,000 keys, 5,000 locks… chaos. But all chaotic large systems have basins of attraction. The art is to make those basins conducive with humanity in a fair and peaceful manner”
ET – “Prepare for the worst whilst hoping for the best.”
Precisely.
SA – “…but without closing the borders is meaningless.”
Again, precisely. We need to compartmentalise, and then wipe it out zone by zone. Each zone cleared to Green can reopen to other Green zones. The smaller a zone, the sooner it can achieve Green status.
The introduction to Planet of the Humans by Jeff Gibbs:
Gibbs, narrating:
I’ve got a question. How long do you think we humans have?
Various members of the US public:
“How long does the human race have?”
“Ooh.”
“Umm,”
“ah wow..”
“I don’t exactly know, but maybe two…”
“I have no clue, I hope I give me at least fifty more years!”
“I think, there’s an infinite amount of time.”
“Infinite. It’s infinity, yeah.”
“I give us a million, a million years.”
“Being kind, I’d say about probably ten years.”
“Ten, twelve years.”
“Thousands of years.”
“Forty seven years three months five days, it’s approximate.”
“We’re kinda like cockroaches on the planet; no matter how much damage we’ll do enough of us will survive to procreate and keep it going.”
“Unless we can get to another planet but then we’re just gonna Fuck it up like we did Earth.”
“Well I think we’ll be here for a long time but we will change. We’re going to turn back into apes!”Gibbs, narrating again:
Have you ever wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet? Maybe they’re cute, maybe they’re clever, but lack a certain, shall we say, self restraint? What if they go too far? What if they go way, way, way, way, way, too far? How would they know… when it’s their time to go?
Here are some comments from some distinguished virologists about the significance of the mutation. It is common for coronaviruses to mutate due to mistakes during recombination and possibly also as a process of adaptation to a new host. There is less worry about its affecting vaccine efficacy at this stage, there is still no clear evidence whether it affects virulence and disease severity and some evidence to suggest that it has an advantage over the previous most common variant, as it is quickly replacing it, and that this may be due to higher infectivity. The main effect would be on control measures and test and trace which would have to be boosted to cope with the accelerated rate of transmission.
SA – “The main effect would be on control measures and test and trace which would have to be boosted to cope with the accelerated rate of transmission.”
Social restraint needs to increase to reduce R below 1 for the new variant, so that’s about 30% more restraint than in spring. But the more restraint we exercise the faster infections will fall and the less time we’ll have to put up with it.
Test and trace hasn’t a snowflake’s chance in hell until we can get infections down into hundreds per day at most, AND we have quarantine facilities, AND guaranteed income. Currently there must be over a quarter of a million infected and therefore potentially infectious; there’s no hope of tracing everyone a quarter million have come into contact with every day, absolutely nowhere to isolate them if we did, and most can’t afford the time off work anyway so they’ll avoid getting tested in the first place.
Track and trace seems unlikely to be much help until we can get the infection numbers down, but can anyone think of any reason in principle why there should only be one track and trace software system? It seems to me that there could be any number running concurrently, such that anyone could sign up to whichever they preferred. Is there any reason in principle why Google, for instance, shouldn’t deploy their European system in the UK? Then people who didn’t feel like signing up their portable touchscreen computer to Mossad via Matthew Gould’s company could just opt for Google instead, who programmed their Android device anyway.
I might be a bit behind recent developments; I don’t take much notice of government announcements. I don’t need to be told to stay out of other people’s vicinity during a pandemic. I don’t have an “app”; I’m doing quite well at having hardly any contacts to trace :/
I have Saturn and Jupiter together in the telescope now.
Thanks N_.
Yep; Jupiter’s four Galilean moons visible, and Saturn’s rings, all together simultaneously whichever of the three eyepieces I used. Lovely.
Should Saturn and Jupiter not follow social distancing guidelines?
Sorry to hear that ET; hopefully you’ll get clear sky in the next few days. They’re very low from my latitude, ten degrees or less above the horizon, roughly south-west; you need a view to the horizon free from houses or trees, even tall grass for a ‘scope mounted as low as mine. And they’re not visible for long between it becoming dark enough after sunset, and Saturn and Jupiter setting themselves. And of course they’re coming through more and more atmosphere the lower they get; I never got them completely sharp, but everything was recognisable.
Oh I think they’re still over two metre apart…
And besides, they’re both Green Zones.
Well Done Getting the Scope out Clark…Great Stuff…We were Clouded out
How a string of failures by the British government helped Covid-19 to mutate:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/uk-government-blamed-covid-19-mutation-occur
I think this guy has been reading your posts Clark. Joking aside, sums it up well.
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