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The general point for discussion is, do you believe that SARS COV2 is a serious threat or not?’
I am a little reluctant to get involved in this discussion again, so in all fairness should not have posted that link I suppose. I left the link because I thought it was perhaps significant that the WHO have felt it necessary to post such a caution at this time. Even more so if, as you say, it was entirely unnecessary for them to do so as everyone is already following the correct procedures. It is nothing, although I can well understand how you will be suspicious of my motives.
To answer your question (and I am glad of an opportunity to do so and hope I can post before feathers start to fly again) – I am confident it is a significant cause of deaths at the moment. I am confident it is more contagious than other known coronaviruses. I am confident it has not been ‘planned’ by malevolent forces. I am confident that simple precautions can reduce the spread, as with all bacteria and viruses. That about sums up the things I am 100% sure of I think. I cannot say whether it is a ‘serious threat’ because a) ‘serious’ is a somewhat subjective assessment and b) what constitutes a ‘serious threat’ to us as a species is different to what constitutes a threat to us as individuals. I have not personally encountered any serious consequences of the virus and don’t know anyone who knows anyone else who has (that does not mean I think nobody has). On the other hand I have personally encountered people ‘seriously’ affected, individually, by the restrictions. My concern now, and has been since shortly after the outbreak occured, whether the response is causing more cases of individual suffering than the virus does. Without scrupulous attention to detail it is not possible to assess anything really.
Sorry that was very abrupt. Ambulances queing outside hospitals is a shocking thing. What must it feel like to be stranded there in a condition which requires and ambulance in the first place, no matter what that condition may be? But it is not a situation unique to the covid-19 outbreak and should not be viewed as a manifestation of its ‘seriousness’. It is a manifestation of a different problem altogether. We should address that problem.
ET and SA, you both treated Yeadon’s arguments as if they were science
As there was a lot of discussion about Mike Yeadon on a different thread I took the time to summarise the argument he presented in that particular interview in this post.
He has the academic credentials to make comment. From listening I get the feeling that he is genuine and sincere in his argument and not trying to be controversial for the sake of being so
That is what I said at the time. I think he has subsequently been shown by events to have been mistaken. There is an ongoing second wave. Here is a link to a good summary of the arguments against his:
https://unherd.com/2020/11/the-trouble-with-covid-denialism/Subsequently Clark, he and 21 others with similar academic backgrounds have submitted a paper to https://www.eurosurveillance.org/ Europe’s journal on infectious disease surveillance, epidemiology, prevention and control. I have no idea how credible this journal is. The paper is titled “External peer review of the RTPCR test to detect SARS-CoV-2 reveals 10 major scientific flaws at the molecular and methodological level: consequences for false positive results”
I also believe he and others have petitioned the EMA ( European Medicine Agency responsible for approving drugs across the EU) for the immediate suspension of all SARS CoV 2 vaccine studies, in particular the BioNtech/Pfizer study on BNT162b (EudraCT number 2020-002641-42).
@Mods It would be nice to have the ability to preview posts to see if I have messed up
In fact, ambulances queuing outside hospitals is just one of the thousands of problems which could have been addressed with the money spent on the response to the virus. Whether it ever would have been is of course another question altogether.
ET – I read that precise article on unherd a few hours ago. Thought it a very fair appraisal. It all moves along at a pace.
Steph
I am glad you are engaging again. I am also glad you posted the links from 2018 and 2019. The NHS ‘winter pressure’ bed shortages have been a chronic feature of the NHS ever since Thatcher started to reduce the number of beds available in the NHS. The number of beds in the NHS have halved since 1986 despite increase in number of patients treated. If you have worked in the NHS or know someone who has then you will know that this is the case. Respiratory diseases are the commonest cause of admissions and those admitted are elderly and have co-morbidities. One of the worst culprits is ‘flu and that is why there is a drive to vaccinate the elderly yearly as the virus does mutate and we need a new vaccine each year. In some years the vaccine does not protect fully or the strain of virus is more lethal and many more patients are admitted and also many more die. NHS hospitals generally have contingency plans to deal with this over the winter months for several weeks. I hope you will acknowledge that this scenario occurred earlier on this year in the UK, when the number of hospital admissions were so increased and number of deaths also increased to an alarming level, and this rise occurred in April and May, usually months when the NHS is recovering from the winter pressures. What was apparent was that SARS Cov2 was much more contagious and lethal than the flu’ virus and came also after the usual deaths from the winter flu and other infections. Because SARS Cov2 is not as seasonal as the ‘flu, if unchecked we would have had a year round crisis in the NHS and continuous higher level of deaths of elderly and vulnerable individuals. This means there is reduced capacity to treat other conditions as the urgent cases with covid-19 will be admitted and there will be no beds to treat other conditions.
I am sorry if what I wrote is basic but that seems to be the problem when people feel that this virus is not serious, that the implications of this swamping of the NHS is really not taken into consideration. You may not know of individuals who have died or suffered with the virus but know of many who have suffered the effects of the lockdown and the simple explanation is that so far under 1 or 2 percent of the population have had a severe form of the disease whereas a hundred percent of the population has suffered the effects of the lockdown.
We can argue as to whether the lockdown is appropriate or has been carried out appropriately but that is another discussion.All you write is known to me SA! But when you say ‘We can argue as to whether the lockdown is appropriate or has been carried out appropriately but that is another discussion’ I have to say that this is the only discussion I have ever been trying to have! My posts have been entirely related to its appropriateness or otherwise, and using what data we have accurately and usefully is integral to that. But I fully understand now that that discussion is not what your thread about.
Another one for you Steph. This is from Australia. Interestingly it also shows by a simple fact that can be understood by everyone why the problem is not a problem. If there was a significant false positive rate for the test of say 1% you would expect that to be unaffected by the number of supposedly infected people. So when the pandemic was controlled in Victoria and other parts of Australia, the positive rate became zero, not the expected constant 1% of number of tests performed. Here is the scientific reasoning behind this explained by a molecular biologist.
https://virologydownunder.com/the-false-positive-pcr-problem-is-not-a-problem/‘Because SARS cov2 is not as seasonal as the ‘flu’. Do we have evidence of that yet? It obviously doesn’t follow the same seasonal pattern as flu, but does that mean it has no seasonal pattern at all, or that it is ‘less seasonal’ (not quite sure what you mean by that) ? Have we established it has no predictability in such a short period of time? Think plants SA!! Perennial, Biennial, Monocarpic?
“The number of beds in the NHS have halved since 1986 despite increase in number of patients treated”
There has been significant underfunding of the NHS for many years and I am not defending that but the bed issue is a bit more nuanced.
Many procedures for which people were admitted are now done as day cases and the resource has been invested in day procedure units. Instead of 3 days in hospital people spend a few hours instead.
Post operative days in hospital have reduced significantly after it was increasingly recognised that getting people up and about and home after surgery is overwhelmingly better for their health in most cases. Much more use of minimally invasive surgery (laparoscopic techniques) added to this trend with less post operative morbidity and people fit to go home earlier. Hospitals can be dangerous places for your health. The above has significantly reduced patient in hospital days and consequently the number of beds needed.
The problem is that there is a 100% bed occupancy policy in use of those in patient beds that are there. Any surge tips that balance. Spill over wards are use to mitigate this somewhat but a decision needs to be made to open them by a hospital manager and staff them with consequent costs. A good argument can be made that savings made in not opening underused beds can be redirected to other aspects of care. Problem is this becaomes unstuck when there is a big surge in patients, like every winter and especially so if the winter surge is higher than usual. It can also happen that one hospital gets overwhelmed on a particular day. This has implications on the safety of care for those patients already admitted. Hence you sometimes get hospitals “closing” and redirecting cases to other local or maybe not so local hospitals. It is a difficult management issue.SA, I’m sure you don’t mean to but you’re guilty of sensationalist fearmongering. There is no substance to that news story. Its a masterpiece of innuendo and misdirection, describing a common scenario in our overstretched NHS and suggesting that it is due to covid without offering any evidence.
“Hospital capacity across the region reached 104 percent on Tuesday, according to local authorities.”
Happens every winter in our overstretched NHS, wards are full, patients are parked in beds in corridors.
“A line of more than a dozen ambulances – still with engines on to keep the patients aboard warm – was filmed outside Antrim Area Hospital.”
Been happening for years all over Britain. See this 2 year-old Guardian story headlined “16,900 people in a week kept in NHS ambulances waiting for hospital care”
“Northern Ireland is witnessing a spike in Covid-19 cases after it exited lockdown last week.”
“Cases” means positive tests, not covid patients. The vast majority of tests happen outside of hospitals and do not affect hospital resources. The more tests carried out, the more positives are found. The story offers no connection between “spike in Covid-19 cases” and “exited lockdown” but allows us to assume it.
“Varying degrees of ill patients” have been provided care by doctors “in the back of ambulances,” due to there being no room inside the hospital, she said.”
And these patients are ill from what cause? We are not told but invited to assume covid-19. Nowhere in the story does it tell us the actual number of covid patients in the hospital, despite the implication that the building is full to overflowing with them.
“the heads of Northern Irish healthcare trusts warned that the coronavirus was putting the healthcare system under “unbearable pressures.””
I can state with certainty that in my neck of the woods, that pressure is due to coronavirus policy rather than medical concerns. Two wards in my local hospital are reserved exclusively for covid patients. I know for a fact that they have been barely used.
SA, you put this story forward as evidence for your case. It’s typical of a hundred stories we hear every day which are superficially frightening but contain no substance. Unfortunately the majority of people take these stories at face value and believe they justify ever increasing restrictions on our liberties. That’s what’s truly frightening.
Unsure why you are assailling me with evidence about the reliability of PCR tests, and I am the first to admit ignorance. The point is, why do the WHO think it necessary to issue a caution at this time? There is quite possibly a reason why they might do so, that has nothing to do with the validity of tests. But what might it be?
Steph
I am sorry you think I misunderstood you but the arguments about PCR positivity and whether they mean anything and also whether long queues of ambulance are significant are at the crux of determining whether what you were directing attention to, when you referred to the WHO warning about PCR and also whether the deaths and sickness figures from the virus are high or are manipulated is what bogged down the discussion and made this a circular argument.I agree with you that the lockdown measures taken by our government are not appropriate but not because they are too severe, but that they were not severe and decisive enough at the beginning. They are now detrimental to the economy and to people’s mental well being, but because we were not prepared for the epidemic, we took the wrong decisions, the decisions were late and were inadequate. Dealing with epidemics is something that should be a reflex well rehearsed and well prepared for measure, it should not be subject to political discussions or under the direction of politicians, it is a public health matter. The ideal reaction for a nation prepared for such an eventuality is to identify and isolate cases as soon as possible, to limit movements into and out of the country to prevent spread of infection. Identification of potentially infectious subjects should be done as early and as thoroughly as possible and those identified either on clinical suspicion or by testing when this is available, irrespective of how sick they are, and isolated. Isolation in this case means complete isolation in a facility where all their needs are met so that they do not pass on the infection to others. It certainly does not mean going home in a small flat and inevitably infecting other members of your family. And you know these concepts are not bizarre or outlandish, they were effectively carried out in China and South Korea and other places. This will reduce the transmission at an early phase of the infection, and as in the case of SARS of 2003 and of MERS in 2012 has successfully led to extinction of the virus with no man-to-man transmission. Governments in the West dithered, and in particular UK and USA who had a clear 2 months notice of what will happen and took no action until it was too late. I don’t know whether these governments thought that because we are cleverer than other countries, we were not subject to the same susceptibility. In summary the government was not prepared, there was no PPE for ages, there was a shortage of testing, which was only directed at sick patients. Others were directed to go home and infect their families. Care home residents were decimated and hospital capacity was nearly swamped. The half hearted measures of the first lockdown ‘flattened the curve’ but that merely allowed the NHS a breathing space. It was not sufficient to actually control the virus. Flights to and from Heathrow and other international airports were not limited, and it is estimated that over 20 million travellers came to this country during ‘lockdown’. Even travel from Italy and Spain was not limited when it was known that these countries had high rates of infection.
I know that you will say you know all this, but the point is that discussions about the mortality rates and the infection rates and questioning them seem to ignore all this background scenario as irrelevant. In stead of focusing on the inadequate response and the real cause of economic and social hardship, prolonged by this inept government, we shift the focus to try and blame scientists for failing to detect that the tests that they produce and work with everyday, are worthless and that we really do not have a crisis at all, just a perception of one.
Duck
December 17, 2020 at 15:47#63455I think I addressed these issues in my answer to Steph. Similar problems arose in April and May when NHS capacity was getting swamped before the lockdown, except this was not in the middle of the peak winter pressures but in the beginning of spring. If saying that having winter pressure type admissions all year round and mounting mortalities is fearmongering then I think we are not on the same wavelength.
ET
Yes I am of course aware that bed occupancy and numbers were affected by the increased use of keyhole surgery and other procedures, but as you point out this has gone beyond this and has increased the occupancy rate and reduced ability to absorb unusual pressures even though some of these are predicted, such as the winter pressures. But number of beds is not the whole story. I am sorry I haven’t got figures but the recruitment of permanent nursing staff of special expertise mix has also drastically suffered. Not only is there a large vacancy pool in most hospitals due to shortage of nurses, but the flexibility required to facilitate profitability of the NHS prior to privatization also extended to the expansion of agency nursing pools which are now a feature of the NHS which increase the cost and also has its own problems of team discontinuity, skill mix and availability.Steph
With regards to whether SARS cov2 is seasonal or not, please read this.
Also remember that the first wave happened in U.K. in April and May and that transmission never stopped during summer, just went on at a slower pace. Also the first wave happened also in the antipodes and other in tropical countries countries with different seasons. This may change if immunity within the population increases.“why do the WHO think it necessary to issue a caution at this time?”
I don’t think it is any more than make sure you continue to update your procedures according to the manufacturers instructions for use which presumably get updated and refined with time and use.
‘In stead of focusing on the inadequate response and the real cause of economic and social hardship, prolonged by this inept government, we shift the focus to try and blame scientists for failing to detect that the tests that they produce and work with everyday, are worthless and that we really do not have a crisis at all, just a perception of one’.
This is confusing, and perhaps I misunderstand you again. I think that focusing on the real causes of economic and social hardship is precisely what I have been trying to do. I don’t see covid-19 in itself as being especially high in the list of those causes. It is in there, at the moment, for sure. But it is eclipsing and distorting absolutely everything else and the response exacerbates everything to the enth degree. Which is why (inappropriately on this thread as I have willingly conceded) I have questioned stats etc.
I accept fully that a swift and ‘effective’ lockdown at the outset would have been infinitely preferable to what has actually ensued, but its water under the bridge now. I am very interested in the train of events at the earliest stages, before it suddenly became a worldwide thing. We all know the story of the doctor who was ‘silenced’ But if true what could he possibly have had to say at that point other than ‘Look, something is happening here. People are infecting each other and a few are dying.’ Hardly new. Then it was found to be a new coronavirus, more infectious but still not significantly more alarming than previous coronaviruses and seemingly rather less likely to kill. So what happened next? How was it that in a matter of weeks the whole world was in a panic? (for it can only be described as that – as you say, governments around the world did not behave in a rational and organised way, they panicked. We panicked. Everybody panicked). Perhaps someone will make a film about how unfolding events all went so horribly wrong one day.
ET – Fair enough. Let it pass!
SA “I think I addressed these issues in my answer to Steph.”
No, you didn’t. The “issue” is that the story you linked to describes a common winter phenomenon and attributes it to Covid-19 without any evidence whatsoever.
You cited the story as evidence that claims of false-positive tests must be untrue because the hospital was full of Covid patients. The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.
Duck
“You cited the story as evidence that claims of false-positive tests must be untrue because the hospital was full of Covid patients. The story certainly gave that strong but misleading impression so I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were taken in by the story rather than deliberately collaborating in the deception.”
I did not cite this story as evidence that the claims that false tests must be untrue, this is silly and you know it, you have combined two different conversations and came up with your own manufactured conclusion. I have provided links to a scientist who explains why this canard that the PCR gives high false positive rates is a myth, above and if you care to have an intelligent discussion about that then please read that article and tell me why it is part of the grand conspiracy to deceive.
As to the story about the ambulances in the hospital car park, yes this is similar what we see in years of bad flu but as I mention this is actually due to Covid not the flu. Of course you will tell me that this reference is of course a manufactured deception.
Now I think that if you want to continue to converse, you need to rethink your startegy. If you feel that we are all here part of a deception or falling for a deception I will ask you as a start to tell me exactly what you mean by this. I will accept no you tube references or those from OffGuardian or any other such one sided websites. If you have scientific references then perhaps that would make a good start.Steph
December 17, 2020 at 17:38#63464
Let it pass. I take that to mean that you no longer wish to doubt that the PCR is a reliable test for diagnosis of individuals who have become infected with SARS cov2 and have abandoned your original belief that the high number of positive individuals is an artefact.SA – ‘Let it pass’
No, you may take it that I am happy to accept that there is no significance in the WHO issuing a caution at this point!
Steph
December 17, 2020 at 17:31#63462The reason why the world panicked is that the initial data from China showed a very quickly multiplying infection and in a matter of a few weeks 86,000 individuals were diagnosed with just over 4000 deaths. The kinetics of the infection and the novelty of the virus revealed that this virus had the capacity to cause a pandemic. You do appreciate that this was a truly frightening situation, a new virus with no known immunity in the population with a mortality rate of about 5% and with an exponential spreading rate of doubling of a few days is extremely scary. You do not have to wait for this to be established to act. We have had similar scares with SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2012 but the outbreaks were contained because vigorous measures were taken. Now this is the crucial bit to understand because if you do not agree then it is futile to continue explaining, do you see why this is scary and why there was panic?
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