By sending troops into the Ukraine, (others than those stationed there by agreement) Putin has broken international law. That does not depend on the Budapest Memorandum. It would be a breach of international law whether the Budapest Memorandum existed or not. The effect of the Budapest Memorandum is rather to oblige the US and the UK to do something about it.
The existence of civil disturbance in a country does not justify outside military intervention. That it does is, of course, the Blair doctrine that I have been campaigning against for 15 years, inside and outside government. Putin of course opposes such interventions by the West, in Iraq, Syria or Libya, but supports such interventions when he does them, as in Georgia and Ukraine. That is hypocrisy. There are elements on the British left who also oppose such interventions when the West does them, but support when Putin does them. You can see their arguments on the last comments thread: fascinatingly none of them have addressed my point about Putin’s distinct lack of interest in the principle of self-determination when it comes to Chechnya or Dagestan.
The overwhelming need now is to de-escalate the crisis. People rushing about in tanks and helicopters very often leads to violence, and here Putin is at fault. There was no imminent physical threat to Russians in the Crimea, and there is no need for all this military activity. Ukraine should file a case against Russia at the International Court of Justice; the UK and US, as guarantor states, can ask to be attached as guarantor states with an interest in the Budapest Memorandum . That will fulfil their guarantor obligations without moving a soldier.
The West is not going to provide the kind of massive financial package needed to rescue the Ukraine’s moribund economy and relieve its debts. It would be great if it did, but with western economies struggling, no western politician is in a position to announce many billions in aid to the Ukraine. The chances of Ukraine escaping from Russian political and economic domination in the near future are non-existent – the Ukrainians are tied by debt. That was the hard reality that scuppered the EU/Ukraine agreement. That hard reality still exists. The Association Agreement is a very long path to EU membership.
Both Putin and the West are reacting to events which unfolded within Ukraine. Action by the West was not a significant factor in the toppling by Yanukovich – that was a nationalist reaction to an abrupt change of political direction which seemed to be moving Ukraine decisively into the Russian orbit. Ukrainians are not stupid and they can see the standard of living in former Soviet Bloc countries which have joined the European Union is now much higher . Anybody who denies that is deluded. Of course western governments had programmes to encourage pro-western tendencies in Ukraine, including secret operations. It would be naïve to expect otherwise. Anybody who thinks Russia was not doing exactly the same is deluded. But it is a huge mistake to lay too much weight on these efforts – both the West and Russia were taken aback by the strength and speed of the political convulsions in Ukraine, and everybody is still paying catch-up.
Which is why we now need a period of calm, and an end to dangerous military adventurism – which undeniably is coming primarily from Russia. Political dialogue needs to be resumed. It is interesting that even the pro-Russian assembly of Crimea region has only called a referendum on more devolved powers, not on union with Russia or independence. However I still maintain the best way forward is agreement on internationally supervised referenda to settle the position. The principle of self-determination should be the most important one here. If any of the regions of Ukraine wish to secede, the goal should be a peaceful and orderly transition. Effective military annexation by Putin, and insistence by the West that national boundaries cannot be changed, are both unproductive stances.
Sajid Javid and Nick Boles (Tories) are accusing Miliband of assisting the Ukraine crisis.
Ed Miliband rejects Tory attempts to link Syria vote to Ukraine crisis
Labour leader says it is nonsense to suggest parliament’s vote against air strikes in Syria helped embolden Vladimir Putin
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/02/ed-miliband-tories-syria-vote-ukraine
Javid, a British Pakistani, is a Con Friend of Israel. He visited Israel in 2012 and 2013. One of the trips was funded by the American Enterprise Institute whom he has also visited in Washington.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/regmem/?p=24854 His register of interests.
American Enterprise Institute. Kagan, Wolfowitz, Bolton and other many other neocons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Enterprise_Institute
Nick Boles is a member of the Cambridge-based think tank the Henry Jackson Society, which advocates a pro-active approach to the spread of democracy in the world. In 2012 Boles was listed as being a participant in that year’s Bilderberg meeting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Boles
Both are said to be friends of Osborne, also a Bilderberger, incidentally.
Some fits surely.
Qs
Who wants Syria defeated? Israel
Who has protected Syria? Putin
Who interfered in Ukraine? The US.
Interesting Mary – Thankyou and the aangirfan link – you really are flat out -bravo!
A plethora of revolutions as the author says.
Weekend Edition Feb 28-Mar 02, 2014
Global War on the 99%
How International Financial Elites Change Governments to Implement Austerity
by ISMAEL HOSSEIN-ZADEH
Many countries around the world are plagued by all kinds of armed rebellions, economic sanctions, civil wars, “democratic” coup d’états and/or wars of “regime change.” These include Ukraine, Venezuela, Syria, Thailand, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Somalia and Lebanon. Even in the core capitalist countries the overwhelming majority of citizens are subjected to brutal wars of economic austerity.
While not new, social convulsions seem to have become more numerous in recent years. They have become especially more frequent since the mysterious 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001 and the 2008 financial collapse in the United States, which soon led to similar financial implosions and economic crises in Europe and beyond.
Despite their many differences, these social turbulences share two common features. The first is that they are largely induced, nurtured and orchestrated from outside, that is, by the Unites States and its allies—of course, in collaboration with their class allies from inside. And the second is that, contrary to the long-established historical pattern of social revolutions, where the desperate and disenfranchised masses rebelled against the ruing elites, in most of the recent struggles it is the elites that have instigated insurgencies and civil wars against the masses. The two features are, of course, integrally intertwined: essentially reflecting the shared interests and collaborative schemes of the international plutocracies against the global 99%.
/..
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/02/28/how-international-financial-elites-change-governments-to-implement-austerity/
Herbie,
I think the ousting of Yanukovich was of doubtful legality. However if it were completely illegal, it still does not make it legal for another country to invade. If mass demonstrations against the benefit cuts forced Cameron from office, it would not entitle anyone to invade to put him back, no matter how much violence had accompanied the demonstrations. It is a question of internal government.
I have seen no evidence at all that Western security services were effective in ousting Yanukovitch and I do not believe they were at all a significant factor. They really are not that good. I did see a lot of evidence of a great many very angry Ukrainians.
Equally I am not at the moment convinced that neo-Nazis hold positions in the current Ukrainian government in Kiev. It is not impossible, but I should like to see some evidence. What is the neo-Nazi affiliation of the current acting President or any of his ministers, and where precisely is the evidence of it?
The aangirfan article that Mary linked to has the headline
“‘NATO TROOPS SHOT BOTH SIDES IN UKRAINE’ – REPORT”
but the links in the article don’t actually support that. Here’s a Google Translation for the first:
http://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&hl=en&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25D0%25A1%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B9%25D0%25BF%25D0%25B5%25D1%2580%25D1%258B%2B%2522%25D0%259E%25D0%25BC%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B3%25D0%25B8%2522%2B%25D0%25B3%25D0%25BE%25D0%25B2%25D0%25BE%25D1%2580%25D1%258F%25D1%2582,%2B%25D1%2587%25D1%2582%25D0%25BE%2B%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B5%2B%25D1%2581%25D1%2582%25D1%2580%25D0%25B5%25D0%25BB%25D1%258F%25D0%25BB%25D0%25B8%2B%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B0%2B%25D0%259C%25D0%25B0%25D0%25B9%25D0%25B4%25D0%25B0%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B5%2B%25D0%25B8%2B%25D0%25B7%25D0%25B0%25D1%258F%25D0%25B2%25D0%25BB%25D1%258F%25D1%258E%25D1%2582%2B%25D0%25BE%2B%2522%25D1%2582%25D1%2580%25D0%25B5%25D1%2582%25D1%258C%25D0%25B5%25D0%25B9%2B%25D1%2581%25D1%2582%25D0%25BE%25D1%2580%25D0%25BE%25D0%25BD%25D0%25B5%2522%26safe%3Doff&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=ru&u=http://rus.newsru.ua/ukraine/21feb2014/tretia_sila.html
‘Erbie
“Habby
Were Nuland and the ambassador picking leaders?
Yes or No.”
_______________________
It’s a little like me claiming that Resident Dissident and I have picked you as Useful Idiot of the week. But, you know, we could pick you as much as we like and that still wouldn’t make you this week’s Useful Idiot; you have to get to the top all by yourself and on your own merits – as you have indeed done.
Mary
“Agent CameraOn will be on a four way phone call tonight to Kerry in the US, Lithuania and Poland (Tusk). Hope he’s using the Friends and Families rate.”
____________________-
I shouldn’t think so, Mary. The taxpayer foots the bill for the PM’s calls – and I’m pleased to say that includes you. Enjoy the thought! 🙂
I don’t have a dog in this fight, but it might be easier to understand Russia’s actions if we consider Sevastopol to be Russia’s Gibraltar. Let your imagination do the rest.
There is no doubt that Western meddling provoked the overthrow of Yanukovich leading to the installation of far right and neo-fascists in the Ukrainain government and they cannot really complain at Russia’s reaction. After all, Russia spent 20 million lives the last time the fascists got their nose under the tent, I don’t think they want them on the doorstep again.
The West has been thumbing its nose at international law for so long that they really have surrendered all moral high ground from which to lecture anybody else. When you sow the wind…
CM – “I have seen no evidence at all that Western security services were effective in ousting Yanukovitch and I do not believe they were at all a significant factor.”
Are you kidding us ! Victoria Nuland,Assistant US Secretary of State, no less, distributing cookies to the crowd at Maidan. The POTUS warning the Yanukovitch Government “there will be consequence” (if the Maidanistas come to harm). The Nuland “F U ” conversation with the Ambassador was simply based on wishful thinking then, that there was no planning/operations that had led up to it?!! Common CM, even the toothpaste bombing Sochi scare was part of the operation. There is a division at the Pentagon that orchestrates these events in great detail – it has a lot of experience and a standard template, if I may add !! A similar operation is currently in progress against Maduro in Venezuela
“Yats’ and Klitschko are members of Svoboda. Yats is pushing for austerity and as we know, that doesn’t work unless you are a tin-pot dictator.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)
“The All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” (Ukrainian: Всеукраїнське об’єднання «Свобода», Vseukrayinske obyednannia “Svoboda”), translated as Freedom, is a Ukrainian nationalist political party,[2] and currently one of the five major parties of the country.[9] Five members of the party hold positions in Ukraine’s government.
The party was founded in 1991 as the Social-National Party of Ukraine (Ukrainian: Соціал-національна партія України), a reference to National Socialism.[10][11] Today Svoboda acts as a populist proponent of nationalism and anti-communism. It is positioned on the right of the Ukrainian political spectrum”
Nevermind
“Thanks Mark, Cameron is about as wet as a kipper sliding down a rock on this issue, wet and slimy.”
__________________
You’re a bit of a landlubber, aren’t you – or perhaps you don’t eat fish.
For your information, kippers are a product derived from fish; you’d therefore be unlikely to see one “sliding down a rock” – unless of course you were standing on said rock, gazing out to sea, and your Waitrose plastic bag unexpectedly split. Is that what happened?
Following on from the above, may I also point out that fresh fish are much slimier than kippers, which although quite oily are actually not slimy at all.
What proportion of people in the Ukraine in the 1980s saw themselves as speaking Russian as their main language of choice, with or without a southern or Ukrainian accent?
I’ve seen various figures. And of course since 1991 there has been a massive effort to bombard people with yellow-and-blue Ukrainian nationalism in the school system and the media. (See also Croatia and Serbia, where contrary to what liars and idiots may say, ‘Croatian’, ‘Serbian’ and ‘Bosnian’ are not three different languages.)
But I wondered whether someone here might have some kind of figure based on personal knowledge, rather than something they’ve found on the internet in the past few days.
Was it more than 50%?
“I don’t quite agree with ‘Resident Dissident’ above, since Mr. Murray’s stance on so-called ‘liberal interventionism’ seems consistent and he grounds his arguments in International Law.”
Russia never ratified the Rome Statute. They also have UNSC power of veto.
See Jonathan Steele’s article in The Guardian for a bit of sanity on NATO’s and Washington’s madness on the Ukraine.
Black Jelly
I have taken part myself in a great many diplomatic exchanges about what we wanted to happen at the time in various countries. It doesn’t magically translate into their happening.
How on earth you think that Nuland warning Yanukovich against shooting demonstrators – entirely sensible – or handing out cookies (daft), or pontificating on who she wanted to be in power (incidentally the person she wanted is not in power)- translated into bringing down the government, I know not. If diplomacy was that easy, I wouldn’t have given it up.
That the West wanted Yanukovic to go, there is no doubt. That they caused him to go is simply untrue. You have provided evidence of the former, and none of the latter.
Nevermind
2 Mar, 2014 – 4:01 pm
“can someone please tell us what Sasha Billy was saying to the public prosecutor? or do I have to ask a more discerning crowd somewhere else?”
“somebody should get the guist of what he was on about throttling the young chap up by his tie.”
I haven’t found a transcript of the video yet Nevermind but Uzbek in the UK thinks it was a “well-staged play” (ie Russian propaganda) so no good asking him for a translation
Old Mark
“I’m afraid I can’t give you a ‘clearer picture’ of the composition of Ukraine’s sovereign debt other than that provided in the link I gave earlier.”
_________________________
Oh, I’m surprised and sorry to hear that, I was curious to know the composition of the other 75% of Ukraine’s debt and who owns it. But never mind, I’m sure the IMF will provide the info in its forthcoming report and we’ll be reading about it in the financial press shortly.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Mr Ward explains that a) a disproportionate amount of their sovereign debt is in very short term bonds and that b)Russia is no longer willing to buy these bonds.”
_________________
That appears to imply that Russia mostly owns the 25% pf Ukrainian debt which is in short-term bonds, doesn’t it. If correct, that’s very interesting and would make it appear that Russia is the bad boy.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Further elucidation from me on the relevance of these points won’t be forthcoming.”
______________________
I quite understand, but since I was asking about the composition and ownership of the remaining 75% of Ukraine’s debt and not about the “relevance of these points” it doesn’t really matter, does it.
What do Kerry and Hague think their visits to Kiev will achieve?
http://news.sky.com/story/1219658/ukraines-new-navy-chief-defects-to-crimea
Perhaps they will defect? 🙂
Pantsdown thinks we are very near the edge. Just one step and it could all go pear shaped. What ridiculous politicians we have been landed with.
Habbabkuk (La vita è bella!
2 Mar, 2014 – 4:06 pm
To Herbie:
“You’ve got it the wrong way round : when YOU make a claim (or insinuation), it is for YOU to back it up – with facts.”
Habbabkuk, when YOU make a claim it would be helpful if YOU backed-up that with FACTS properly referenced.
(It’s a great life, if you don’t weaken)
“Yats’ and Klitschko are members of Svoboda.
Yats is a meber of Fatherland and Klitschko is the leader of UDAR neither are members of Svoboda.
Richard
I didn’t imply that Craig was inconsistent in his stance against liberal interventionism – he isn’t. I just wanted to make that such a stance was not consistent with that of John Stuart Mill who Craig has often eulogized in the past. I should also add that there are grounds in which liberal interventionism is permitted under international law – if you search around you will see that this is an area of extensive legal debate.
Fred
Russia does however subscribe to the European and United Nations Conventions on Human Rights.
@CM – Ok I hear you, but as the situation escalates Boris is going to reveal some even more juicy and “interesting” intercepts (remember its his home ground),the Nuland telecon with the Ambassador was only a starter, to bolster their case. Stand by, the Russians have known the US intrigue all along, and seen it as an opportunity to take back Crimea. Interesting times ahead, a weak Obama beholden to the US deep state,is stuck in Fukuyama “End of History” mode, Russia (and China) are about to show their muscle to a bankrupt Great Satan.
Interesting but perhaps little known fact Lebedev the owner of the Telegraph and Evening Standard owned a bank in Russia called the National Reserve Bank that made a lot of money buying up old Ukrainian debt to Russia on the cheap which shortly thereafter was repaid at a much higher amount.
So, Mr. Murray (and excuse my directness)it is unheard of that a Western power’s secret services or armed forces in close cooperation with various organizations, have been involved in secret and illegal attempts to bring down governments around the world?
And, it is unheard of, that for the purpose of bringing down the targeted government have used any means possible, including agents and bought politicians.
Or, that they have used unfounded propaganda, “false flag” and “black operations” as in the popular jargon are called?
Or you categorically exclude such possibilities in the present situation in Ukraine?
How you, an experienced diplomat, can be so sure, when all the signs are there?
And what kind of evidence would be sufficient for you to change your mind?
A written confession? videos?
” what kind of evidence would be sufficient for you to change your mind? ”
To start with any kind of evidence would be good; and just because you think they may have done it in the past doesn’t represent evidence that it may have happened on this occasion.
Why is it, Murray, that you don’t advocate restoration of the elected government of Ukraine and the agreement between that government and the opposition calling for early elections and a unity government?
But I suppose the answer is self-evident: since to take such a position would militate against the success of America’s multi-billion-dollar subversion of Ukraine. In fact, it would correspond exactly with Russia’s position, and the defeat of Russia is the real objective, Russia being a sovereign nation state to be demolished slice by slice as the New World Order and its decadent civilization drives East.
Funny thing is, while the US managed to infiltrate Ukraine’s far-right-wing extremist faction comprising a mob of stick-wielding thugs with Nazi insignia, Russia apparently infiltrate the Ukrainian military, which seems to have been a better bet, and almost certainly a lot cheaper.
So far the Nato-Nazi’s hopes of instigating a Ukrainian civil war seem not to be bearing fruit.
“That the West wanted Yanukovic to go, there is no doubt. That they caused him to go is simply untrue. You have provided evidence of the former, and none of the latter.”
Can’t argue. They wanted him to go because that gives an opportunity to change the government to a government more favourable.
But the reporting here has all the bias of our government-owned media. It concentrates on rioting in the Ukraine where there was a pro-Russian government against which there was severe public dissent. It gave very little attention to the protests in Bosnia Herzegovina where the police have been accused of violence against demonstrators, and the presidential palace has been burned.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/02/21/bosnia-and-herzegovina-investigate-police-violence-against-protesters
Even today BBC midlands news, which made no mention of yesterday’s protest in support of Moazzam Begg, covered the story of the most decorated soldier, Henry Tandy, who it was claimed spared Hitler’s life. In its tiresome coverage of WWI stories (which is apparently going to go on until 2017 – I’m already sick of it because I believe it is Cameron’s ploy to glorify the great British empire and not simply a presentation of history) an historian has discovered that Tandy’s claim could not have been right. The story finished by pointing out what should be remembered is that Henry Tandy was the most-decorated soldier: not that the first victim of war is the truth.
“Russia does however subscribe to the European and United Nations Conventions on Human Rights.”
I don’t see how that would be relevant.
Anyhow the ICC is only there to prosecute little countries in Africa. Prosecuting world powers is not in their remit. It’s never happened yet and it’s never going to.
boiling frogs refers to this as a CFR video. that may be so. it certainly got a lot of assistance from MSM:
BBC News – #BBCtrending: ‘I am a Ukrainian’ protest video goes viral
28 Feb: Time Mag: Senator John McCain: “We Are All Ukrainians”
http://swampland.time.com/2014/02/28/ukraine-john-mccain-putin-crimea/
10 Feb: Le Monde: Bernard-Henri Levy : Nous sommes tous des Ukrainiens
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2014/02/10/nous-sommes-tous-des-ukrainiens_4363410_3232.html
2011 Guardian: Kim Willsher: Libya: Bernard-Henri Levy dismisses criticism for leading France to conflict
Philosopher says criticism of dealings with Sarkozy of no importance compared with ‘avoiding a bloodbath in Benghazi’
Unruffled as ever in his trademark Charvet white shirt, half-unbuttoned to reveal his tanned chest, the 62-year-old French philosopher is used to being in the line of fire – some of it, from Bosnia in the 1990s and Burundi in 2000, all too real and dangerous.
But last week the censure was political: the self-appointed intellectual-at-large was under attack for reportedly persuading France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, to meet and recognise the rebels in Libya…
All of which leaves this handsome dandy of a man almost totally indifferent. “Honestly, I don’t give a damn,” he says, as he drinks Ceylon tea in his favourite Left Bank haunt.
*******“What has happened is so much more important than this derisory criticism. What is important in this affair is that the devoir d’ingérance [the right to violate the sovereignty of a country if human rights are being excessively violated] has been recognised. For the first time this concept was endorsed by the Arab League, by the African Union and by the UN security council. This is huge.”…
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/27/libya-bernard-henri-levy-france
as for the toothpaste bomb alert – MSM showed no interest whatsoever in following up one it was established the individual was (surprise, surprise) a Ukrainian. not even sure this guy will go to trial. however, WSJ seems to have been designated to create the “official” and final narrative, no matter how utterly ludicrous. they put it on a blog & didn’t allow commentss of course:
11 Feb – Wall St Journal BLOG: James Marson: Politics Behind Plane Hijacking, Ukrainian Opposition Says
But the alleged wannabe hijacker had something else in mind, according to an acquaintance who saw him hours earlier: freeing Ukraine’s president from the clutches of Russia’s Vladimir Putin…
But Ivan Varchenko, an opposition politician, said the alleged hijacker—named by Turkish security officials as Artem Kozlov, a Ukrainian in his forties from Kharkiv—had told him Friday that he wanted to fly to Sochi to “free Mr. Yanukovych.”
“He said he had to save Yanukovych because Putin had taken him hostage and would use him to blackmail Ukraine,” said Mr. Varchenko, a deputy in Kharkiv’s regional council, in a telephone interview. “So he had to save Yanukovych to save Ukraine.”…
Mr. Varchenko said Mr. Kozlov worked as a volunteer on the politician’s website for one day a week for the past 18 months. He said Mr. Kozlov had appeared sympathetic to the protesters’ cause, but on Friday wore a pro-Yanukovych ribbon from the 2010 presidential election campaign. That’s when he revealed his plan to rescue Mr. Yanukovych, Mr. Varchenko said…
http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2014/02/11/politics-behind-plane-hijacking-ukrainian-opposition-says/
Marson & WSJ conveniently left out any reference to Varchenko’a political party!
Dec 29 – Kiev Post: Car of Kharkiv EuroMaidan organizer burnt, fifth incident there in month
The scorched Toyota that belongs to Kharkiv Oblast lawmaker and local EuroMaidan co-organizer Ivan Varchenko.
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/car-of-kharkiv-euromaidan-organizer-burnt-fifth-incident-there-in-month-334404.html