Farage Boost to Yes 93

I have maintained ever since the independence referendum date was announced, that the EU election results would boost Yes support into the lead.  I am very confident that will prove a good prediction.

Today’s Sunday Times opinion poll on European election voting intentions gives:


New Lab 28

Cons 19

Ldem 9

Green 8

A win for UKIP will not only remind Scots that England remains in thrall to very right wing politics tinged with racism.  It will also make plain to Scots that the only way to be sure to stay in the EU is to be part of an independent Scotland.  No professional career diplomat seriously believes the EU would expel Scotland, even though a tiny minority of European politicians occasionally like to threaten it would, for their own domestic purposes.

A massively greater risk is the crazed Little Englanders dragging the UK into leaving the EU.  UKIP are rampant.  The Tories are terrified of them, and have a risible position that after the next election they will renegotiate Britain’s membership, then have an in-out referendum.  In fact there really is no chance that all the other member states will unanimously agree to Cameron’s demand for changes in treaties that were excruciatingly difficult to gain unanimity for in the first place.  In several instances EU states would be unable to agree without a referendum, a can of worms nobody wants to open.  Cameron’s renegotiated settlement can never happen, so the Tories’ European figleaf only has a couple more years to go before expiry date.  Then the English will want to leave.  A majority of English voters already do want to leave.

The difference between English and Scottish voters on the EU is not a myth.  Lord Ashcroft regularly commissions polling data for the Conservative party on a much greater scale than anything the newspapers do.  Newspaper samples are typically around 1,000.  Ashcroft’s are around 20,000. His first quarter survey in 2014

All things considered, do you think that the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union? (Sample 20,058)  (excluding don’t knows etc)

Wales England Northern Ireland (WENI)

Yes 49

No 51


Yes 60

No 40

That is a huge difference, and shows one clear reason why Scotland needs to be an independent state with its own foreign policy.

I trace this strong popular support for the EU in Scotland back to the early 1980’s.  Thatcherism was devastating the economy, there was negative public investment from Westminster, and the only available jobs were on EU regional development funded projects like the A9 upgrade and Dundee City airport.  I remember the big blue EU hoardings at those sites, and it was like a breath of sanity amidst the English Conservative wreaked havoc.

Scottish EU support is also part of our open, internationalist outlook.  We have no desire to rebuild barriers between ourselves and the vast European cultural social and economic space.  We are not fearful or resentful of those foreigners.  We want the EU itself to be more outward looking and porous too.

New Labour are not going to win the next UK general election.  In the last six UK general elections, the governing party has gained an average of 6.5 percentage points in the twelve months preceding the general election.  New Labour are at their polling zenith – which is not at all high – and about to decline.  The Tory/Clegg disaster is coming back to the UK in 2015.

Though when New Labour are committed to cut benefits more than the Tories, and given their record on bank bailouts, NHS privatization, academy schools, PFI, university tuition fees and the numerous other disasters New Labour visited upon us – not to mention Iraq, Afghanistan and extraordinary rendition – I cannot understand the brainless tribal loyalty that makes anybody believe New Labour would be any better anyway.

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93 thoughts on “Farage Boost to Yes

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  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    “““very right wing politics tinged with racism”! at least UKIP would’nt have attacked,or supported the attacks of:Afghanistan,Iraq,Libya,Syria nor would it be fomenting war in the Ukraine.”

    Of course they would.”

    I agree with Fred. It’s too easy, after the event, for UKIP to say that they are/were against – especially since they had no MPs at Westminster whose voting records could be scrutinized.

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    Daniel Buckley

    “A sovereign country can never be short of money for investment…it can create this money from thin air.”

    BUT later on

    “Digital funny money without asset backing created by the financial casino,does not create wealth…”

    What is the difference between money created from thin air and digtal funny money?

  • Mary

    Sofia Did you know that the Pope has given an audience to the acting PM of Ukraine, unelected just like Ashton herself? Why him, we ask?

    I sent this to the Vatican press office yesterday but it was returned as undeliverable.

    Dear Friends in the Press Office at the Vatican,

    It disturbs me and many of my friends that neither you or His Holiness have acknowledged the sad death by murder in Homs of this fine human, Father Frans, or his life’s work for people of all faiths in Syria. There is no mention of him on your website.

    Frans van der Lugt: A Dutch priest in Homs

    This article on the BBC website describes him and his work. It is a terrible shame.

    Yours sincerely


    Father Frans was a catholic priest. I liked the photo of him on the BBC link in the flowery meadow with the slow learners. ‘Consider the lilies of the field.’ etc.

    btw I am not a Catholic and have no religion.

  • Geoffrey

    UKIP would have no interest in interfering with other countries when its whole raison d’etre is not being interefered with.
    I agree with me.

  • Salford Lad

    97& of money is digital money ,credit cards, bank cheques, bank drafts.You do not see the physical paper/coin. It is created on a computer by the private banks.

    How money is created by private banks is a simple mathematical/accountancy system.

    +1 add -1 =0.

    The borrower when repaying the loan cancels out the banks liability. The interest charged is the banks profit. The loaned out money is the new money entering the system.
    So simple that the creation of money has been disguised for centuries to prevent riots by the population at the confidence trick wrought on them.
    For FURTHER proof check the Bank of England website,yes it is mind boggling in its simplicity.

  • Salford Lad

    @ Sofia k n
    The central banking system and Govt are concerned by the rise in popularity of crypo-currencies. They can not be regulated and are issued debt free ,avoiding Govt taxes and bank charges in peer to peer transactions.
    Crypto currencies have weaknesses, they are initially purchased at Exchanges,which is a choke point with Govt access to regulation and there have been well publicised breakdowns in their use.It is early days and these faults will be corrected in time.
    The present world monetary system is dysfunctional. A little history lesson is required to explain.
    Towards the end of the 2nd World war in 1945, the Western countries came together to agree on a framework for world trade. The Gold standard was agreed upon with an oz of gold set at 35 US $/oZ. This was the Bretton Woods agreement. A country could only issue as much currency as it had gold in its vault.
    WESTERN countries traded and paid in gold, their national currencies being fixed against the US $.
    In 1971 the US was haemmoraging gold from Fort Knox due to the cost of the Vietnam war and a large trade deficit with their Western trading partners. Nixon decided to close the gold window and the US exited the Bretton Woods agreement.
    This enabled the private banking system to issue as much loans/credit as they wished.This led to inflation and labour disputes at the rising costs of living.
    In 1973, the US agreed /coerced the oil exporting middle East counties to price their oil in dollars.Thus the petro dollar was created. The higher the price of oil the more dollars flowed to the US treasury. The US basically owns the worlds oil and its society is financed by its trading partners depositing their excess dollars in US Treasury bonds.Dollar hegemony was born.
    The downside for the US is that it has lost it manufacturing base, as it is cheaper to run the dollar printing machine than to manufacture home products. ( see Detroit)
    Today 80% of world trade is in US dollars. Countries must export their wealth to gain US dollars to engage in world trade, and thus starve their home economies of sovereign investment.
    The US enforces this hegemony by means of its mighty military machine. Any country which deviates from dollar trading is demonised and subjected to military force and destabilised. Thus we have had the Iraq wars, Libya ,Syria and now Russia via Ukraine. Nothing must interfere with US dollar and power hegemony. Those who may be a threat, present or future are crushed by military or financial power means.
    All this is disguised under the umbrella of spreading democracy and human rights, the Hollywood spin machine is in overdrive and is the 3rd leg of the assault on the world economies. All wealth must flow to the Washington tollbooth.
    Should the US lose its dollar hegemony, it will be revealed as an Emperor without clothes, as its economy has been scavenged from within by its financial pirates.

  • Salford Lad

    @ Habbakuk

    The money created by the Bank of England under the 1844 Act is paper and coin money.It is supplied to the private banking system for circulation. The private banks are charged for this. The charge is called SEIGNORAGE. This physical money accounts for only 3& of the money in circulation. The remaining 97% money is created by the private banks when they issue loans, by the creation of digits on a computer.
    In 1844 there obviously were no computers and the 1844 Act was not updated to account for this digital creation.
    Your credit card is digital money,created by the banks on your good credit rating,to the limit of that rating.

  • Mary

    And which one of the bastards had his eye on the job? Why BLiar of course. We signed petitions and rose up as one to protest. He took the hint. He took the hint and slid off on his trail of slime.


    Brown put the hitherto unknown NuLabour placewoman in though.

    She proceeded to set up her own bureaucracy at vast cost.

    Quite an achievement for such a nonentity. She is now seen at many meetings with the gangsters-in-charge.

  • Dreoilin

    Apologies if someone has already posted this. I’m in a bit of a rush:

    “Like STV, the BBC had been paying membership fees to an organisation that the BBC itself had recently began to acknowledge was against Scottish independence.

    “But there was more. The news that the BBC was a CBI member was not accompanied as one might have expected, with an announcement by the state broadcaster that it was quitting the CBI forthwith, but rather the BBC let it be known it was considering its position.

    “Why? was my own immediate thought. At that precise moment in time the BBC was an implicit supporter of Better Together. Licence payer’s cash was being funnelled into an organisation which had formally declared itself to be a campaigner against a Yes vote. Yet the BBC prevaricated.

    “I can still hardly believe it. But there was worse to come.

    “Compounding the situation, the BBC eventually announced that it would continue its CBI membership up until May 30th, which is the formal beginning of the period within which strict rules governing the referendum must be adhered to.

    “As you read this, the situation remains unchanged and your licence fee is now funding the Better Together campaign. That the CBI is trying to get the toothpaste back into the tube and reverse its registration is irrelevant, as things stand it is part of the No campaign.”

    Full text:


  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    Salford Lad

    “A country could only issue as much currency as it had gold in its vault.”

    That statement is pure nonsense.

    “In 1973, the US agreed /coerced the oil exporting middle East counties to price their oil in dollars.”

    Please indicate in which currency oil was priced pre-1973.


    As far as the rest of your long post is concerned, I’ll limit myself to observing that you appear to be to monetary policy and history what Mr Goss is to politics and history on general.

  • Ben-

    Petrodollar was born after Nixon took US off gold-standard.


    “1971… After several nations begin redeeming their paper U.S. dollars for the safety of gold, President Richard M. Nixon closes the gold window. In this year, the world enters the first completely fiat monetary system.

    1972-1973… Without gold backing, Washington is concerned that global demand for the U.S. “paper” dollar could subside.

    1973-1974… To maintain global dollar demand, Washington creates the petrodollar system. The first to enter this arrangement is Saudi Arabia. The Saudis agree to price all of their oil in U.S. dollars and even to invest some of their profits into U.S. Treasury securities. In exchange, the U.S. provides weapons to the Saudis, along with U.S. military bases to “protect” the Saudi oil fields.

  • Salford Lad

    Appreciate the back-up with links Ben, time and space restraints did not allow for an in-depth information package for such a large topic.
    For further reading on World finance ,I recommend for starters, Prof Michael Hudson and Henry CK Liu on their websites.
    Habakok ,I choose to ignore, as the resident troll on this site.
    Never educate the fools, but learn from their mistakes.
    Economics as taught in our Institutes is deliberately obfuscated to obscure the real thieving that is our modern financial industry.
    Economic teaching does not even include banking or money in their models.They are largely irrelevant in todays economies and Economists are largely proven to be discredited by our present economic and financial chaos.
    Paul Krugman, Nobel prize winner for economics, was recently dissected by Prof Steve Keen for not being aware that money was created by banks from thin air when they make a loan.

  • me in us

    Hi Craig, o/t question from California: There was a link in Naked Capitalism Links today to a story sourced to Xinhua (Xinhua?) about about Edward Snowden taking up post of student rector of University of Glasgow (http://www.canindia.com/2014/04/snowden-takes-up-post-of-glasgow-university-rector/#), and I came here wondering what you would be saying. But I find — nothing? And I did a search at the Guardian and find — nothing? Xinhua, whoever they are, scoops y’all?

    (Though I do like this past story title from January at the Guardian: “We want Edward Snowden as our rector because he stands for democracy”)

    Anyway, hello and best wishes everyone, thinking of you.

    me in us

  • no2eu.com

    George Galloway (pbuh) spoke about that Glasgow University rector thing on his Sputnik show on RT at the weekend. But I gather that’s only broadcast in the UK.

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    Salford Lad

    The general tone and even style of your post at 00h31 speak for themselves and give a pointer as to how seriously we should take your “history lesson” as you called it.

    I note that you dispense with a reply to my two points through the simple but not very intelligent device of saying

    “Habakok ,I choose to ignore, as the resident troll on this site.”


    PS – I note your claim that Paul Krugman was recently “dissected” by Professor Keen, who exposed the former’s ignorance. I must say that if I were Professor Krugman I would not be overly concerned.

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !


    “The Saudis agree to price all of their oil in U.S. dollars and even to invest some of their profits …”


    In the absence of a reply by Salford Lad, perhaps you could tell me in which currency/ies the Saudis priced their oil pre-1973?

  • nevermind

    Faced with popular nutters, or the same as it ever was party political crooks who are demanding attention from us for this oh so important EU election,(so why give only a mere month of campaigning to these important issues? BBC at it again with their party political bias) I shall not vote in these EU elections for the first time.

    Rupert read, the Green party lead candidate, a philosophy lecturer at UEA, was also their candidate in the Norwich North byelection that saw Chloe Smith being elected. He ignored Craig and agreed to a BBC education debate at the Mile Cross community centre shutting out this fellow UCLU member and then rector of Dundee University.

    Rupert is ignorant and self centred, a typical blinkered academic who sees nothing wrong with round robin letters to GP members being send out, garnering support to oust a fellow mentally challenged member from their party. I heard a similar letter was written to oust myself from being their Norfolk press officer for 16 years of thankless work, but it was rejected by many and I never seen it.

    There will be no truly Independent candidates afaik in the Eastern region just the pre chewed options.

  • Ba'al Zevul (soy Marxista de tendencia Groucho)

    Keith Taylor, Green Party member of the European Parliament’s Transport Committee, said:

    “MEPs have voted today to introduce EU measures which will make cyclists more visible to lorry drivers….”

    (Rupert Read’s blog)

    Another reason for not voting Green. Lorries are the natural predators of bicyclists, and keep their numbers in check. Without lorries, the roads would be packed with sweaty people with unpleasant legs inadequately covered by damp lycra, swerving unpredictably and swearing at each other. Each one of which emits as much CO2 in a day as half an average car (FACT – the less said about methane the better). And, with the rising price of food, inhabitants of rural areas are increasingly dependent on roadkill cyclists for their protein (and water bottles). A bas les verts. Vote for me.

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    Ba’al Zevul

    “Another reason for not voting Green. Lorries are the natural predators of bicyclists, and keep their numbers in check. Without lorries, the roads would be packed with sweaty people with unpleasant legs inadequately covered by damp lycra, swerving unpredictably and swearing at each other.”

    And let’s not forget either that Mary doesn’t approve of cyclists (at least, not going past her place in leafy Surrey)!

    Une raison de plus! 🙂

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !


    “The Saudis agree to price all of their oil in U.S. dollars and even to invest some of their profits …”


    In the absence of a reply by Salford Lad, perhaps you could tell me in which currency/ies the Saudis priced their oil pre-1973?

    Wake up there, Ben, I’m still waiting for your answer. Was the question so difficult?

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    “A country could only issue as much currency as it had gold in its vault.”

    From his silence, I conclude that Salford Lad is not disputing my observation that

    “That statement is pure nonsense.”

    Thanks (and no apology necessary)!

  • nevermind

    Unbelievable, the man has no idea of politics and the mistake he’s making, byelections are more important than GE’s because you are in focus for all to see and you policies are discussed.

    Hmmm maybe they have no policies…. or he’s ancious not to fail. Maybe he expects to be hit by his financial ‘mistakes’ in the coming month.

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