The Independence Vote 50


Nicola Sturgeon is to be congratulated for refusing to back off from the goal of independence, and the right of the Scottish people to self-determination, under pressure from Andrew Marr today.

The truth is that the SNP’s potential for a stunning electoral result in Scotland is based on our success in holding together the Yes coalition under the SNP umbrella. All of the recent Scottish opinion polls put the SNP vote in precisely the same range as recent opinion polls on Scottish independence, up from September 2014. Given the very low polling for other pro-independence parties, it is beyond any doubt a myth that there is a significant vote for the SNP which does not want independence but is voting SNP to ensure Devo-Max. There is simply no evidence of that. The opinion polls show the opposite, and anecdotal evidence from canvassers shows the SNP vote overwhelmingly an independence vote.

In fact, I suspect that the SNP will get less unionist votes in this election than ever before. In Dundee East, which I know extremely well, there is no point denying that historically the SNP benefited from Tory tactical voters wanting to keep Labour out. That is no longer happening, due to the polarising effect of the referendum. Dundee East SNP voters are now all committed nationalists.

In fact what we are now seeing, quite openly, is the Unionist parties advocating tactical voting between Red, Orange and Blue Tories against the SNP throughout Scotland and even Labour Party activists in places canvassing for the Tories. This is of a piece with the Labour tactic of pitching its austerity policies to southern English Tory voters: Miliband’s message today is that he will be the Tories’ champion.

All the SNP have to do is continue to hold together the overwhelming bulk of the Yes coalition and, due to FPTP, we can sweep much of Scotland. That is why Nicola’s stance today was not only right in principle, but wise in preventing seepage to the Scottish Greens. That does not make FPTP a better system. And we should not allow the media to build up expectations of the SNP taking every seat, so they can claim Murphy has triumphed if he hangs on to a dozen.

But one thing we should say, loud and clear. An SNP vote is always a vote for independence, and it is absolutely a myth that there is now any significant swathe of unionist SNP voters out there.

The SNP vote is an independence vote, end of.


50 thoughts on “The Independence Vote

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  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    I remember all too well when A.V. Dicey was cocksure that he could revolutionize the Liberal Party into legislating Home Rule for Parnell’s nationalists, only to become a difficult Unionist when Clan na Gael supporter Patrick Ford reprinted in The Irish World two of Dicey’s articles about the plot from The Nation instead of seeing that the Physical Force Party in America was then backing legislative change for the Union.

    Doesn’t take much for people to lose the thread when surprises occur in an ambiguous environment.

  • Republicofscotland

    Yes I agree with that,Nicola Sturgeon has never denied that the goal is independence,I feel it will come through Full Fiscal Autonomy,or FFA as its commonly known.

    Of course the unionist parties go on about a £7.6 bn deficit,which in reality is a snapshot,of our fiscal position now,not what it would in under independence as we haven’t achieved that yet, so our fiscal deficit can’t be calculated for something that hasn’t yet occured.

    Even so running a deficit isnt the end of the world,all countries borrow,and Scotland could grow its economy as Nicola Sturgeon stated in the debates,there’s an alternative to austerity,which frankly isn’t working.

    Gideon Osborne can’t seem to grasp that,and along with the LibDems and Labour,the Tories just don’t have the imagination to grow our way out of austerity.

  • nevermind

    Thanks for that, Monteverdi, and a Myra Louise Janner resigned the day before on the 9th.
    If he was able to count his marbles then, how can he possibly be above the law?

    The state of both Labour and Tory party is comparable to the desperation of a headless chicken. They will do anything to get into or stay in power, I would not exclude a grand coalition, that desperate.

    Nicola is doing well. A few more shots opening new housing and or schools, telling the unionists what it means to have the SNP deliver.
    I also wonder whether the SNP could just go that step further and offer their full and open support for fair proportional voting here in England, a wise step imho.

  • John Spencer-Davis

    If someone holds a lasting power of attorney for property and financial affairs for Lord Janner, they could have resigned on his behalf.

    Kind regards,

    JOhn

  • Villager

    “SNP threatens to block defence spending unless Trident is scrapped ”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11548217/SNP-threatens-to-block-defence-spending-unless-Trident-is-scrapped.html

    How readily we, around the world, accept ‘Defence’ when what is really meant ‘Offence’. In that respect, I’m totally green. If SNP’s presence can cause the cancellation of Trident, that’s a good enough reason, on its own, for me to see them in ample numbers in Parliament. If they manage to disrupt defence spending as the title sensationally suggests, all the better.

    Btw, Nicola had rather dark circles under her eyes this morning. Sleep depravation is a price you pay for personal hyper-ambition and success. Can’t believe she’s only 45 years old! And we’ve seen 53-yr old Obama turn prematurely great in his years in Power. But our 67-hr Hillary is still blonde. Although, as I recall, one of the chief reasons she gave for resigning from Government was that she was exhausted!

    I laugh at all these poor souls, hungry for Power.

    Which is why Craig, I think you would be better off observing and influencing politics from the outside than within. Besides, if you’re in the party game, you’re going to have to be able to lie and be a chameleon, rather more than occasionally. I don’t see you doing that.

  • Republicofscotland

    As for Jim Murphy,the branch manager of London Labour in Scotland,has launched “Operation Undecided”

    It’s aimed at undecided voters in Scotland, that’s Labour all over undecided.

    Meanwhile Labour candidates in Scotland are furious that Jim Murphy is recieving special treatment in his East Renfrewshire constituency,due to the polls showing Murphy is poised to lose his seat.

    Margaret Curran is also recieving special treatment to try and hold on to her Glasgow East seat, which she is in real da ger of losing also.

  • Becky Cohen

    “Nicola Sturgeon is to be congratulated for refusing to back off from the goal of independence, and the right of the Scottish people to self-determination, under pressure from Andrew Marr today.”

    I’d imagine though that (similar to his take on Greville Janner and the responsibilities of the Jewish community) Craig feels the Scottish people should apologise for Malcolm Rifkind taking the bribe from that undercover journalist a few weeks. After all, Malcolm Rifkind is Scottish therefore every single Scottish person – including Nicola Sturgeon – needs to apologise profusely for weakening democracy in such a way.

    *Ps. This is nothing to do with the prejudicial stereotype of Scottish people being grasping when it comes to money, eh?;)

  • Republicofscotland

    I’d imagine though that (similar to his take on Greville Janner and the responsibilities of the Jewish community) Craig feels the Scottish people should apologise for Malcolm Rifkind taking the bribe from that undercover journalist a few weeks. After all, Malcolm Rifkind is Scottish therefore every single Scottish person – including Nicola Sturgeon – needs to apologise profusely for weakening democracy in such a way.

    *Ps. This is nothing to do with the prejudicial stereotype of Scottish people being grasping when it comes to money, eh?;)
    _____________________

    RIfkind,did no favour for Scotland,under Thatcher’s rule he took great pleasure,in crushing any aspirations Scotland held.

    But your logic is flawed if I might add,it’s like folk asking you to apologise for oppressive political decisions,forced on Palestinians,by superior warring military force.

  • craig Post author

    Becky, or whatever your real name is,

    As I have repeatedly stated, it is not the Jewish community but the institutions which helped give Janner his status while he was raping children, which need to apologise.

    Particularly the Board of Deputies of British Jews, of which Janner was President for 11 years while he was raping children. The Board of Deputies should apologise. I am happy to repeat that as often as you wish.

  • Villager

    Becky Cohen, one of my favourite singer-songwriters is Leonard Cohen. Do you think you could find a way for some of his Wisdom to rub-off on you? 😉

    Enough of your aggrieved attention-seeking? What do you think, given that you have had the clarifications you sought?

    Btw, I listened to him at the Auditorio in Rome some years ago when he had just got back ‘on the road’. Al fresco, on a summers evening, some 5,000 or so people in the amphitheatre. And the atmosphere was one of sheer Love. makes you think of the potential of the one life we’re given on this beautiful Earth. There is no Paradise out there, we’re supposed to make one here. Has mankind taken a wrong turn somewhere? Religion, and I’m afraid yes Nationalism, are two of the obvious root sources. Both make the Globe insecure, when ostensibly they are supposed to provide us security!?

  • Mary

    Three of the ‘deputies’ are lawyers.
    http://www.bod.org.uk/about-us/meet-the-officers/

    Janner’s daughter was at the BDBJ Chanukah Reception. So was Yvette Cooper and so were Bercow, Efford, Farron, the Chief Rabbi and the Israeli Ambassador.

    http://www.bod.org.uk/board-and-appg-on-british-jews-host-annual-chanukah-reception/

    Their annual income is £1.16million

    The trustees’ interests in other charities are also listed.

    http://apps.charitycommission.gov.uk/Showcharity/RegisterOfCharities/CharityWithPartB.aspx?RegisteredCharityNumber=1058107&SubsidiaryNumber=0

  • Bob Costello

    Yes ,well put Craig and straight to the point , this is what we are getting in our campaigning in the centre of Dundee. I don’t think I have spoken to a single Snp voter who wants full fiscal autonomy , they want independence, end of story

  • bevin

    The logic of New Labour seems to be imposing itself. The signs are that there is a Grand Coalition/National Government in prospect. With Number 10 going to whichever party wins in the photo-finish.
    This will leave the SNP on the outside, where they need to be, and UKIP, strengthened by Tories unable to accept the coalition’s refusal to hold a referendum, too.
    The LibDems will, of course, be part of the coalition.
    The next election-2019/20- is going to be historic.
    The neo-liberal monopoly in Europe is unsustainable- new populist parties, either faux nationalists or socialist are going to be popping up all over. Most will not win elections yet but they will drive the old Social Democrats, Tories and Liberals into permanent alliances to defend their sponsors and pensions.
    In Ireland FF are talking about coalition with FG, for example. Similar moves, modeled on the, failed, Greek system, are likely all over Europe.

  • Villager

    Having said that earlier, about Nationalism, I can sort of, prima facie, see the argument of those Scots who want independence. In that, they could not only affect change in their own country, but perhaps influence change by shaking up the Establishment in a country that dominates the World stage and geopolitics, by virtue of being a member of the so-called Security Council, member of the hideous Nuclear Club and last but definitely not the least America’s First Poodle.

    I see a little bit of the Groucho Marxism of I-don’t-want-to-be-a-member-of-a-Club-that-wants-me-as-a-member here, or maybe I’m being a little too romantic?

    Whatever, we can’t go on like this and, if we continue to dwell in our Type-Zero civilisation, we’re doomed. Btw, we have to acknowledge that the English language, if not already there, is fast becoming the one Global language. And that may end up being the greatest contribution of England to Global Civilisation. That is credit to the literati, or anyone, but certainly not the politicians. Who have given poodles a bad name.

  • Republicofscotland

    The US president went off script ­during a summit to warn of the threat, to the horror of aides and the bemusement of the Soviet leader.

    The former B-movie actor became an avid science fiction fan while working in Hollywood. He confessed his favourite story was “the invasion from outer space that prompts earthlings to put aside nationalistic quarrels and band together to fight the alien invader”.

    Reagan even arranged a private screening of Stephen Spielberg’s Close Encounters Of The Third Kind at the White House in 1982 for top judges, astronauts and other VIPs. The book reveals he turned around as the credits rolled and told his audience: “There are a number of people in this room who know that everything on that screen is true.”

    Reagan was to go even further when he met Gorbachev for the first time at a summit in Geneva in 1985, according to the book, How UFOs Conquered The World, to be published next month.

    Author Dr David Clarke said: “He ­surprised Gorby by saying he was sure the two superpowers would co-operate if Earth was threatened by alien invasion. Taken aback, the Soviet leader politely changed the subject.”

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/571434/Reagan-asked-Soviets-defeat-alien-invasion

    No wonder George Bush senior had John Hinckley Jr,shoot Reagan,in 1981.

  • Sticking in ER's craw

    Just as long as self-determination is understood to entail the right to peace and to development. Those require an independent foreign policy for Scotland so it can comply with UN Charter Article 2(4) and Chapter VII in its entirety, along with the Rome Statute. Every Scot must have the right to non-participation in use or threat of force inconsistent with the UN Charter. The government of Scotland must honor its obligation to end impunity in Britain and at home. You don’t want to end up like Jersey, a hutch breeding fresh meat for highborn British pedos.

  • Villager

    ROS, thank you for your various contributions, which for the most part read much like Mary’s ticker-tape. Presently, the only way to tell apart, immediately, your original comment from a quotation, is a rather distracting forensic test of where the commas fall.

  • Republicofscotland

    ROS, thank you for your various contributions, which for the most part read much like Mary’s ticker-tape. Presently, the only way to tell apart, immediately, your original comment from a quotation, is a rather distracting forensic test of where the commas fall.
    _____________________________

    Why thank you Villager,for taking the time to read my comments,it’s good to see you paying attention for once.

    I do try and read all of your comments,I find them especially useful when trying to fall asleep.

  • Villager

    ROS, do you mean like a rather fine Scotch Whisky? The effect of your comments on my system are unfortunately rather more, shall i say, diuretic!

    Anyhow, I can see how a dose of Wisdom can give you a little calming sense and tranquillising effect to your neuroses. But don’t be fooled, when you wake up, you will still be neurotic! 😉

    Well meaning but archetype lost Nationalist that confirms that nothing will change.

  • Habbabkuk (la vita è bella)

    Trowbridge

    “I remember all too well when A.V. Dicey was cocksure that he could revolutionize the Liberal Party into legislating Home Rule for Parnell’s nationalists,..”

    _______________________

    You cannot “remember all too well”, Trowbridge – at most you might “remember very well reading that..”.

    This is because the events you are referring to occurred towards the end of the 19 th century and I am sure you are not 150 years old.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    A.V.Dicey, 1835-1922.

  • Habbabkuk (la vita è bella)

    Republicofscotland

    I noticed the expression “our fiscal position” in one of your posts, above.

    The word “our” appears particularly significant.

    Could you please confirm

    1/ that you are or consider yourself to be a Scot

    2/ that you live in England at present

    3/. that you intend returning to Scotland if and when it achieves independence (as you know, an independent Scotland will need all the talents it can get and your posts show that you would have a great deal to offer).

    Thanks in advance.

  • Republicofscotland

    “UPDATE: The petition has now passed the 100,000 mark

    The petition to have Katie Hopkins fired from her job as a columnist for The Sun has passed 60,000 signatures.

    The backlash is in response to an article she penned in which she describes migrants as “cockroaches” and insists boats making their way from Africa should be turned back with force.”
    _______________________________

    Not go worry Villager,she also said that,if Ed Miliband becomes PM she’d leave the UK,can we assume then that you’ll follow her,afterall reading your comments,its patently obvious,you carry a lot of emotional baggage as well.

  • Habbabkuk (la vita è bella)

    Nevermind

    “Nicola is doing well. A few more shots opening new housing and or schools, telling the unionists what it means to have the SNP deliver.”
    __________________

    Would you consider moving from Norfolk to Scotland if and when Scotland achieves independence?

    After all, you appear to think that life is Scotland would be infinietely better than in fascist, banana republic England and, as a German and non-baturalised Brit, you would be no more of a foreigner in Scotland than you are in England.

    Nicht wahr, mein Lieber?

  • Habbabkuk (la vita è bella)

    Villager

    Good to see you on here, Sir! There are so few right-thinking, sane people on here that every new one is worth several percentage pints of the total!

    Anyway, what I meant to say is that “Republicofscotland” and RobG are only on here for laughs. And in their attempt to get laughs, they post silliness.

    Shappi Khorsandi and Paul Merton they are not! 🙂

  • Republicofscotland

    3/. that you intend returning to Scotland if and when it achieves independence (as you know, an independent Scotland will need all the talents it can get and your posts show that you would have a great deal to offer
    ___________________

    Oh,you old devil,you do flatter to decieve.

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