Prediction Game 53


OK, purely for fun, here is my prediction of the General Election result. This is not in any sense a reflection of what I want to happen. It is rather what I think will happen, my best guess. Anyone want to see if they can get closer?

Conservatives 283
Labour 259
SNP 51
Lib Dem 31
DUP 9
Sinn Fein 5
Plaid Cymru 4
SDLP 3
UKIP 2
Green Party 1
Independent 1
Speaker 1


53 thoughts on “Prediction Game

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  • Stephen

    My guesses:

    Conservatives 276
    Labour 276
    SNP 49
    Lib Dem 26
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 3
    SDLP 3
    UKIP 1
    Green Party 2
    Independent 2
    Speaker 1

    (The numbers probably don’t add-up)

  • RobG

    Craig, brave man for making a prediction on not only such a close race, but also a quite unprecedented race!

    If I were making my own prediction, I’d say that I disagree with you about the Lib Dems getting 31 seats. I think they’ll be wiped out (voters are like elephants).

    Also, I think the Green vote might surprise people, because this time round it has become a real protest vote against the two main parties.

    I’d like to think that the Conservatives will also get wiped out after their absolutely disgusting record over the last five years (all done without a majority), but alas too many people do believe the complete bs that the mainstream media come out with. I think the Conservatives will be around 300 or so, and Labour will be on around 270 or so.

    I agree that the SNP will take 50 plus seats. This will completely change the dynamics of UK politics, because, depending on how obliterated the Lib Dems are, and how many votes go to smaller parties, it will finish off Labour as ever having a chance of a majority government.

    Out of this turmoil a new ‘old Labour’ party will come into existence, much as has happened in Greece and Spain.

    I think we both agree that the kippers will be cooked.

    I love the smell of fried kippers in the morning!

  • Mary

    Desmond’s £1m to Farage was a waste.

    (That nearly came out as Garage!)

  • Anon1

    Nat Scots will do well, demanding astronomical amounts of spending to keep them from realising the independence they never really wanted in the first place. Scotland remains a dependent, backward shithole. Blames the Unglesh. Repeat forever.

  • Becky Cohen

    If that happens Craig, would it mean that the Tories will be able to rule on their own without forming a coalition? Is it a high enough majority for them to rule on their own? They’d really be pushing it, as I can’t imagine how the gap between the uber-rich and the rest of us is going to get any more wider without sparking widespread and persistent social unrest.

  • keaton

    Tory-LD-DUP government on Craig’s figures. Peter Robinson for Equalities Minister!

  • lysias

    Scotsman: SNP set for 53 seats in new general election poll:

    A NEW poll has predicted the SNP will take 53 seats in Scotland, decimating Scottish Labour.

    The Panelbase poll indicates that Jim Murphy’s party would only take five seats – an improvement on a previous poll signalling a wipeout for Labour in Scotland – with 26 per cent of the vote north of the Border. Nicola Sturgeon’s party would get 48 per cent, according to figures published today.

    The Lib Dems are projected to take one seat with five per cent of the vote. The Tories, Ukip and Greens are expected to take 14 per cent, three per cent, and two per cent of the vote respectively.

  • RobG

    For anyone interested, the Guardian GE live blog have just published tomorrow’s front pages…

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/06/election-2015-live-controversial-welfare-cuts-revealed-campaign-final-day#block-554a790ae4b0fd459e538d78

    I will add that my prediction earlier in this thread takes it as given that the DUP are part of the Conservative vote, and that both the Lib Dem and UKIP votes will collapse and migrate to the two main parties.

    But who the hell knows what will happen?

    I wouldn’t dare bet on this one.

  • Mark Golding

    Conservatives 368
    Labour 183
    SNP 51
    Lib Dem 33
    DUP 9
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    SDLP 3
    UKIP 2
    Green Party 1
    Independent 1
    Speaker 1

  • lysias

    New Guardian projection:
    General election 2015: Britain heading for hung parliament: Preliminary results of final Guardian/ICM campaign poll show Labour and Conservatives tied at 35% each
    :

    When the Guardian’s poll projection, an average of all the polls made public, is updated to take account of the new ICM data, it places the Conservatives on 274 seats and Labour on 271 – neither anywhere near the 326 required for an absolute majority.

    But the huge anti-Tory SNP bloc of 53 gives Miliband the stronger position in the battle to negotiate for control of No 10. The cabinet secretary, Sir Jeremy Heywood, is on hand to prepare for talks, but will not press Cameron to leave Downing Streeet, since it will be his right as prime minister to decide whether to test the opinion of the Commons on a Queen’s Speech.

  • Resident Dissident

    “A NEW poll has predicted the SNP will take 53 seats in Scotland, decimating Scottish Labour.”

    I and Ed Miliband would be happy very happy with only decimation it would mean a Labour majority – are you really a classics scholar?

  • lysias

    Scotsman‘s choice of words, not mine. Are there really so many people here who are unaware of the convention that indented text below a link represents matter quoted from the linked source?

  • bevin

    Craig is guessing that the Tory Liberal coalition, including the DUP and UKIP will continue.
    He may very well be right, though, from this distance, it is hard to believe that any Lib Dems bar a few independent minded constituency members will be returned after their disgraceful betrayals.
    The chances against a Labour led minority are bad: Sinn Fein won’t go to Westminster-which lowers the hurdle for Cameron but raises it for Miliband.
    Still the logic of the situation suggests a Grand Coalition, which is what I want to see because it will clarify the reality of politics, for the vast number of fools who persist-after everything including Iraq to PFIs to Blair’s serial assaults on liberty- in believing that Labour is in any way preferable to the Tories.

  • Resident Dissident

    Has anyone noticed how relatively quiet Salmond has been despite being the likely Parliamentary leader of the SNP – let’s just say I don’t trust the man.

  • fwl

    Con 288
    Lab 279
    SNP 34
    Lib 28
    DUP 8
    SF 5
    PC 2
    SDLP 3
    GP 1
    Indies 0
    Spkr 1

  • Neil

    Here’s the latest FT prediction, which looks reasonable to me:

    Conservatives 281 (-25)
    Labour 266 (+8)
    SNP 52 (+46)
    Liberal Dems 26 (-31)
    DUP 8 (n/c)
    Plaid Cymru 4 (+1)
    SDLP 3 (n/c)
    Ukip 1 (+1)
    Greens 1 (n/c)
    Other 8

    Where do I think the actual results may differ? I think the Greens’ share of the vote will be much larger than the 5% shown by the polls. Quite possible the Greens could pick up an extra 1 or 2 seats. Maybe a few extra for the SNP.

    But I’m usually pretty bad at this sort of prediction …

  • anti-hypocrite

    The Tories will get more seats than Labour.

    Tories + LDs more than Labour + SNP, but still not a majority.

    Grand coalition between the Tories and Labour.

    Austerity continues.

    Revolution in Scotland follows.

  • bert

    @ Resident Dissident (6 May, 2015 – 11:00 pm)

    Has anyone noticed how relatively quiet Salmond has been despite being the likely Parliamentary leader of the SNP – let’s just say I don’t trust the man.

    Well, he is a Privy Councillor, so will be acting in the interests of Madje’s crown

  • lysias

    On Salmond’s role, Daily Mail yesterday had this: I don’t have an anti-English bone in my body, says Sturgeon as she demands ‘Scottish voices’ in UK government:

    It emerged today that senior SNP figures have been told to be in London by Saturday to begin talks with Labour about how to put Mr Miliband into Downing Street, The Independent reported.

    Ms Sturgeon has insisted she will lead the talks if the SNP holds the balance of power, but others expected to attend include deputy leader Stewart Hosie and Angus Robertson, who is the party’s leader in Westminster.

    Alex Salmond will be given ‘a specific task, although it was not made clear what role he will have’, the newspaper reported.

  • ------------·´`·.¸¸.¸¸.··.¸¸Node

    Bookies odds for Caithness:

    SNP : 1/9
    LibDem : 5/1
    Labour :50/1
    Conservative : 150/1

  • Dumb Unicorn

    Just for fun, if I were a conspiracy theorist (which I’m not…. not yet anyway!) my prediction would be a small number of mild ‘upsets’ which result in Tory and Lib Dems together just being able to edge over the working majority (e.g. 323 without Sinn Fein, or possibly a handful less as DUP/UKIP could be relied on not to vote with Labour even without a formal deal).

    That way the ‘constitutional crisis’ is avoided, but without the prospect of a Scottish mutiny because the SNP have been deliberately excluded from government.

    So, in Scotland, SNP could still gain large numbers of seats from Labour, but NOT the predicted seats from the Lib Dem, and possibly not the solitary Tory one. The justification would of course be votes for individual personalities (e.g. Kennedy, Carmichael) and successful tactical voting (e.g. Salmond 🙁 , Mundell). They may even throw in a split/backfiring tactical vote resulting in a Tory sneaking in (e.g. East Renfrewshire 🙂 ?!) although that does seem far-fetched!

    Then in England/Wales, it would be fairly believable to have Tory or Lib Dems narrowly win in enough of their marginal seats. Tactical voting might also believably throw up a few extra Lib Dems if both sides decide to plump for the previous second place. They can blame the fear of an SNP/Labour coalition on the downturn in Labour’s fortunes because that’s what the press has told us will happen.

    The long term result would of course be that Scotland would be reminded yet again that they’re too small to be in a Union with a country the size of England – but they’re not to small to be independent.

    Ah, the optimist in me wins again.

  • RobG

    @Neil
    6 May, 2015 – 11:07 pm

    These predictions are mostly based on if the Lib-Dem vote holds up.

    Don’t hold your breath on that one.

  • Daniel

    Conservatives 277
    Labour 268
    SNP 54
    Lib Dem 26
    DUP 9
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    SDLP 3
    UKIP 1
    Green Party 1
    Independent 1
    Monster Raving Loony (sorry, Speaker) 1

  • Blegburnduddoo

    Do we know whether or not SNP MPs would vote on issues which have been devolved to the Scottish Government, or would they abstain on the grounds that they are not matters for Scotland?

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