How the British Brexit Economy Works 213


1) A containerful of shoddy training shoes are produced in China, shipped to UK, sorted by lowly paid British zero hours workers and put on shelves of High Street sports shop.
2) While this is happening, sterling plunges 25%.
3) Coachload of Chinese tourists visit sports shop attracted by collapsed pound sterling. They exclaim “Wow Western trainers! And so cheap”. They buy them to take back to China as gifts for family members they don’t like that much.
4) Declare a Brexit sales boom!

The expert among you will have noted this economic model is not very sustainable.


213 thoughts on “How the British Brexit Economy Works

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  • My Cocaine

    “The expert among you will have noted this economic model is not very sustainable.”

    True words, but in the event of a Remain vote, this economic model for the UK would not have changed one jot…

  • Tom Welsh

    “The expert among you will have noted this economic model is not very sustainable”.

    Nor very realistic. The market segment composed of Chinese trainers is relatively small; and the proportion of purchases made by Chinese people is tiny.

    In the long run, a country can prosper only if (among many other things, of course) it exports at least as much in terms of value as it imports. For many years this has not been the case, either in the UK or the USA. It is long overdue that we go back to pulling our weight, and contributing as much to the world’s stock of goods and services as we consume. The fall in the value of sterling will help to accomplish that.

    If, to begin with, we find thta we cannot afford quite as much of other people’s goods and services as we did previously, that is all to the good. It means we are readjusting to the real world. In many ways (especially food) it is very important indeed that we should be self-sufficient. Otherwise, a breakdown in international transport would lead to cannibalism within months.

    • Tom Welsh

      “Otherwise, a breakdown in international transport would lead to cannibalism within months”.

      That is neither exaggeration nor a misguided attempt at humour. Tens of millions of people without enough food – or, in some cases, any food – would result in an amazingly rapid breakdown of social mores and, soon enough, basic civilisation.

    • RobG

      This is one I bang on about all the time. It’s criminal governance that the UK cannot feed itself.

      This was the situation at the outbreak of World War Two, and during the war 11,000 sailors died on the convoys to keep Britain fed. After the war, the British government launched a major initiative to make the country self-sufficient in food (the ‘Archers’ radio programme came out of the propaganda of the time). With the advent of the neo-cons this self-sufficiency has all been pissed down the drain.

      You say: “… a breakdown in international transport would lead to cannibalism within months”.

      I venture that it would happen a lot quicker than that. In large cities there would be civil disorder in a matter of days, and within a matter of weeks we would be in Mad Max Land.

      Us lot who live in very rural areas will have the best chance of survival.

      • michael norton

        The Arse is dropping out of oil today.
        Wallonia scuppers the Canad trade deal with the European Union.
        The E.U. shoots itself through booth feet in a fit of pique
        at their anger at the ungrateful Britishers.
        The E.U. starts to collapse in on its self.
        While Britannia sails majestically off into the wider saner world.

        • michael norton

          I would say that the United Kingdom and Canada have a lot in common, our common language for one, also we share a common Ocean, it should be very, very easy for the U.K. and Canada to get along
          just fine and dandy.

          • Shatnersrug

            You entire plan seems to rest on the notion that Canada are going to save us. That isn’t going to happen. Mind you neither is Brexit.

  • Matt

    Constantly talking down the economy will not help matters. We haven’t even triggered Article 50 yet, how can anyone even begin to analyse the economic impact of leaving the EU? It will take years for our economy to adjust. Hard times ahead for sure, but it’s way too early to know if it’s for the greater good, or not. I don’t think there are many people qualified to make that call yet.

    If you convince yourself you’re mad, eventually you’ll go mad.

    • AliB

      Said with the arrogance of someone who can afford harder times. Those already on and below the breadline may not approach harder times with quite the same sanguinity.

      • Shatnersrug

        Are you talking to me? Because if you are your are being extremely presumptuous and frankly if your not you are anyway. I’m being evicted from my over priced flat in Holloway, because my wanker middle class landlords want to move back in because theyve decided they “think they want a dog so ground floor would be better” We can barely afford to pay the rent we were evicted from our flat of 18 years 18 months ago – I’m working 12 hour days I have chronic fatigue and a fucked back – the thought of moving further afield scare the shite out of me. As of Feb we will have nowhere to live, and I am self employed – no work no money. My partner has long term health problems from an autoimmune disease she and I are creamed if we don’t find a new place and guess what? Shit hole Holloway rent has gone up 100 quid a week in the last 18 months we have to pay 6months rent up front which means any deposit for a flat is gone.

        I’m screwed.

        • glenn_uk

          Sorry to hear this, Shatnersrug.

          It suddenly occurs that if the huge publications like The Mail were to write about the problems faced by decent Britons like yourself, it would give rise to the politics that would make life better for the working poor.

          Yet precisely because it rants and raves about how good the poor have it in the UK, thanks to a vastly over-generous welfare system, it attracts the very migrants over which the likes of The Mail (and its readers) now live in dread!

          • Shatnersrug

            Glen, the thing with the Mail is that it’s unappeasable, if you give them what they demand they will demand more, and that’s because the daily Mail represents the fear, jealousy, distrust and above all paranoia that live in all of our hearts from time to time.

            The Mail love “benefit scroungers” they want more of them, they want more immigration and they want more interference from foreign powers, why? Because it’s their bread and butter, I wish people could see it for what it is.

          • glenn_uk

            I agree – they just want people to hate. And others to envy, because that’s also a form of hate.

            The (hate-)Mail has to be about the most corrosive influence on the British, perhaps almost above all else. Yet it’s about the most popular. My misses worked in a newsagent for a short period, before giving it up because selling fags and strong booze didn’t sit well with her. Every other person bought the Mail. One old boy – as if it were a mark of strong character – proudly said that he’d bought it every day for 40 years or so.

            My next door neighbour buys it, even though I always tell him it rots the brain. Shame, because he’s a decent progressive at heart, but has these awful misinterpretations of what’s going on all the time – wonder where he gets it from?

      • Matt

        I assumed the “arrogant” comment was aimed at me. Either way, it’s a very poor assumption. For the next few months, I’ll be living on a fiver a day after I’ve paid my bills. I’m going to have to stop smoking just so I can eat. But this is irrelevant, it has nothing to do with Brexit. Next year, finances will improve for me. Again, this has nothing to do with Brexit.

        My leave vote was a vote for economic freedom. What we do with that freedom is an entirely different matter.

          • glenn_uk

            Perhaps we can control the way we look after our own industries (and not just make rich farmers happy) – that’s a freedom. Preventing unscrupulous employers taking advantage of cheap labour from eastern Europe – people who aren’t aware of their rights – and undercut British workers. That’s a freedom.

            Having executives of our country who are at least nominally accountable to us – that’s a freedom.

            Thing about the EU is they have to threaten the hell out of anyone who wants to leave, just to keep them in line. That’s why they want to make it rough on the UK. If it were a halfway decent outfit, we’d be desperate to stay. They behave as they do because the opposite is true.

            You call that “freedom” – leave, and we’ll punish the hell out of you?

          • Matt

            I’m sorry, we were in a “free trade” bloc?

            Free trade – international trade left to its natural course without tariffs, quotas, or other restrictions.
            “an agreement intended to introduce free trade in marine products”

            The EU imposes quotas.

            Economic freedom means the freedom to regulate one’s own economy, the freedom to negotiate genuine free trade deals with sovereign nations. We currently do not enjoy such freedoms.

            Anarchy is freedom, not this crock of crap of a sytem that we currently call “free trade”.

          • Martinned

            You call that “freedom” – leave, and we’ll punish the hell out of you?

            As everyone and their uncle put it around the Indyref, choices have consequences. The UK case for Leave was that Britain would have its cake and eat it too, and that’s not how the world works. If you prefer a government that’s nominally accountable to you over an EU legislature and Parliament that’s actually accountable, you’re welcome to it, but then don’t be surprised if you don’t get to sell into the Single Market on the same terms as before, and don’t be surprised if those nominally accountable politicians turn around and give your tax money away to their friends instead of supporting the working classes like you seem to be expecting them to.

            It’s not Eastern European workers who are naive. They know their rights just fine, and they are willing to do work that UK citizens turn their nozes up for. It’s the Leave supporters who think that Theresa May’s UK is going to give them a workers paradise who are naive. So many workers rights only exist because they’re enshrined in EU law, going back all the way to the big ECJ litigation over equal pay between men and women in the 1970s, and you lot took it for granted and assumed that the Tories (who will be in power at least until 2025) wouldn’t mess with your rights.

            Sleep tight little bird, and happy dreams.

  • John Murray

    What nobody has been able to explain to me is how do you get infinite growth on a finite planet?

    • Alcyone

      Certainly not by having our Type Zero Global Civilisation (TZGC) population grow from 7 billion idiots to 10 billion idiots.

    • Loony

      They cannot explain it because it is not possible.

      Professor Al Bartlett opined that “the greatest failure of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” The consequences of this failure become more apparent with each passing day.

      When you think about it for all our veneer of sophistication and our self indulgent smug self congratulations on our own intelligence our underlying belief system is predicated on much the same “logic” as that employed by Cargo Cultists

    • Manda

      It cannot be explained because it isn’t possible. The current economic models are exploitive enriching a minority at the expense of the majority and the environment. No one talks or is encouraged to talk of sustainable equilibrium because it means much less wealth/class inequality.

      • Loony

        In addition to less wealth/class inequality it also means less people. The selection of people for removal is probably the greatest inequality of all.

        • Manda

          @ Loony.
          I agree selecting people for removal is the greatest inequality but I’m not sure less people is the short to medium term aim. In current models high birth rate, in some areas, is needed to sustain human commodities to profit from, even military industrial complex needs people to bomb and people to fight against, they must be replaced regularly, like during the slave era, heath sector needs babies/children to vaccinate and a cheap, exploitable labour force is still required etc. We live in a highly immoral and unethical system in my opinion that does indeed select peoples for ‘removal’, the ultimate exploitation, death, suffering and removal from their lands and ability to be largely self sufficient, free societies.

          Another argument for working towards an equilibrium and how dysfunctional current models and systems are is that as living standards rise, birth rates fall. An equilibrium doesn’t mean stagnation it can be vibrant and inventive.

    • lysias

      By colonizing other worlds? By translating information (which can expand indefinitely) into wealth?

      • Tom Welsh

        I do hope those were jokes! I vaguely remember Isaac Asimov (who was extremely numerate, of course) explaining that, if everyone had 13 children like some US Congresscritters, in a surprisingly small number of generations the entire known universe would be tightly stacked with human beings – like cordwood. Of course, we would run into some rather severe limitations before we got that far.

        Perhaps the human race’s epitaph might be, “They failed to understand the exponential function”. Frankly, it’s a very simple concept that (IMHO) any reasonably bright five-year-old could grasp.

    • Martinned

      Infinite growth of what? The number of people? Most countries are having trouble enough maintaining the replacement rate.

      Economic growth? Why not? The bulk of the economy is already services and intellectual property, rather than physical stuff.

    • Shatnersrug

      hmmm that’s the inevitable upsurge after the last few weeks selling – it will go down again. whatever happens someone will get rich, I wouldn’t be surprise if those in the treasury have some sheckles invested in it.

      I work with people in high end electronic production and I can say you can underestimate the shock waves and fall out from Brexit – and the kicking of heals by the idiotic Tories is making it all the worse

  • Loony

    How is this connected to Brexit?

    Co-incidentally the BBC are running a story in broadly the same vein, although the BBC is focusing on the Chinese buying of footwear and formula milk in Australia.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37584730

    Even the BBC points to the true dynamic driving part of this business. First you need some contaminated infant formula milk so to kill or make seriously ill a large number of infants. This frightens people and provides an incentive for all people with both means and healthy children to start buying non contaminated milk from a location where the safety of the product is more reliably guaranteed.

    Pretty similar modus operadi with the added cruelty element, but absolutely nothing to do with Brext.

  • Sharp Ears

    The Guardian suggest we should stock up especially on Marmite. LOL

    ‘Four months on from the Brexit vote, there are warning signs that consumers should prepare for a renewed squeeze in living standards, as the weak pound drives inflation higher and cautious businesses rein in wage growth.

    How has the Brexit vote affected the UK economy? October verdict
    http://www.theguardian.com/global/ng-interactive/2016/oct/24/how-has-the-brexit-vote-affected-the-uk-economy-october-verdict

    The drop in the pound is starting to be felt by companies. This month Ryanair warned full-year profits would be lower than previously expected and Tesco stocks of Marmite and other household brands were temporarily depleted when the supermarket chain became embroiled in a row over price with the supplier, Unilever.

    While the Office for National Statistics has cautioned that the post-referendum picture is still emerging, the Guardian’s dashboard shows pressure is building in some parts of the economy.’

    The Brexit economy: falling pound and rising inflation fuel fears
    The latest monthly Guardian analysis of a dashboard of data points to the UK economy starting to lose momentum after the EU referendum
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/24/brexit-economy-falling-pound-rising-inflation-fuel-fears-brexit-watch

    • Old Mark

      This month Ryanair warned full-year profits would be lower than previously expected

      That’s some of the best post Brexit news I’ve heard in a while- no wonder O’Leary was such a boorishly loud Remainer!

  • RobG

    How many economists does it take to change a light bulb..?

    Ok, you’ve heard this one a zillion times before…

  • Ba'al Zevul

    Cheer up. Chinese tourist money cancels trade deficit attributable to buying cheap Chinese trainers in first place. World follows example, flocks to dodgy sports outlets throughout Britain, balance of trade soars. Every cloud has a silver lining.

    No, but seriously. The pound has been overvalued for a long time. Sooner or later this bust had to come, and we’ve seen how sympathetic the EU is to its financially challenged members; it would have happened in or out of the EU. No doubt if Brexit hadn’t occurred, the slump – or the extension to the pre-existing slump – would have been blamed on staying in.

    This country needed a bloody good shakeup, with particular reference to its economic base and policy. It’s getting it, I hope. Things simply could not carry on as they were. Now is the time to see if we’re any good at making sports equipment (tidal turbines, solar panels, precision tooling, state your preference), ourselves.

    • Laguerre

      Yeah, brexiters always claim that the pound was overvalued, though none of them have ever been able to explain quite on what basis this evaluation was made. It doesn’t seem to me to have been excessively high, judging by comparative prices between poundland and euroland.

      I don’t see what sort of shakeup is going to take place either. It’s only the old (like me) who can think in terms of going back to glorious national independence (which is implied in the idea of shakeup). The young don’t think that way. I remember reading an article by the French thinker Emmanuel Todd in which he thought that the future of Europe was in independent national states, and thinking this is the logic of an old man. Europe is too far advanced in integration to go back to barriers. Only the feudal British do that.

      • michael norton

        What is going to happen has no bearing what the Remoaners want
        the people have decided BREXIT MEANS HARD BREXIT

        no going back to the days of the E.U. telling us what to do and when to do it.
        We will be a free people again in our glorious Isles.

  • bevin

    As ‘My Cocaine’ points out the basic economic problems long pre-date Brexit. One of them is that it is still assumed that the ‘international division of labour’ is a good thing and that free trade is beneficial. Both are fallacies: importing coal from Australia, wheat grain from Saskatchewan and cars from Korea is idiotic, wasteful and unsustainable. Nine tenths of international trade impoverishes producers and consumers alike in the interests of middlemen. One of the few trades that is beneficial is that of ideas and inventions which is the primary target of current “Free trade” legislation, most of which is designed to tighten monopolies and enforce tolls on what is known, in the inimitable philistinism of the ruling scum, as ‘intellectual property’ – a concept so ludicrous that only a fool can employ it.
    Britain ought to leave the EU and, in doing so, re-evaluate its economy which, for decades has been going nowhere, gradually running down into a picturesque brothel mode with the pimps and bouncers moonlighting for US Imperialism and the fences doing a roaring trade in the proceeds that come from looting foreign countries and our public property.
    We haven’t learned a thing since Parson Malthus-everyone of whose prophecies has proved to be wrong- set to work re-interpreting Adam Smith for the cadets of the East India Company.

    • Loony

      Nice thesis – but there are a few problems.

      The UK imports just over 40% of its food requirements and about 60% of its energy requirements. Importing food and energy may be idiotic, wasteful and unsustainable, and it may indeed harm both consumers and producers alike – but what is the alternative?

      Try to imagine what the UK would look like if 40% of its food supply and 60% of its energy requirements disappeared. It is not even clear that you could grow more food as modern agriculture is crucially dependent on oil. Indeed it is possible that the curtailment of energy supplies means that less food could be grown.

      Implementing your theory will result in mass starvation in short order. Who is going to support that, irrespective of the intellectual case for doing so?

      • MJ

        “Try to imagine what the UK would look like if 40% of its food supply and 60% of its energy requirements disappeared”

        They don’t disappear, they go up in price. Not sure if your figure for food takes into account the great fish bonanza.

        • kailyard rules

          As long as “…the great fish bonanza.” is protected by 13 frigates built on the Clyde. Heard that one?

      • Tom Welsh

        It seems to be a matter of what your real goals and values are. If we could establish that our most important goal is to make sure everyone in Britain is well and healthily fed – and shelve the question of rich people getting even richer by peddling crap food and industrial poisons – I believe we could do it without any imports. In 1939, I think Britain imported about the same proportion of its food as it does today, but by 1945 we were fully self-sufficient. Not in luxuries, and not in everything one would like have – but able to avoid starvation or even malnutrition without relying on imports. Then we went and chucked it away again, because PROFIT.

        Being young and impressionable (though not nearly young enough to excuse my gross naivete) I fell hook, line and sinker for Mrs Thatcher’s talk about the efficient private sector. (In my defence, like everyone else I had just lived through a couple of decades of steadily worsening socialist artificial austerity). It took me ten years or more to realise that “efficiency”, in the context of food, meant “factory farms that keep animals under unforgivably cruel conditions and yield what looks like proper food but is loaded with filthy chemicals and usually lacking in nutrients”. What was efficient was the rate at which the owners’ bank accounts filled up.

          • RobG

            The present population of the UK is about 64 million people.

            70 years ago, in 1945, the population was about 45 million:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom

            There’s really not a whole lot of difference between feeding 45 million or 65 million people, except that in an emergency situation your ration might get by one third.

            But that’s totally superfluous, because successive British governments (of both political stripes) have been so corrupt and incompetent (and a poodle of Washington) that their policies couldn’t even provide food for a few million people.

            That’s how dire the situation now is, and with WW3 on the horizon you should perhaps think very carefully about which of these corrupt a-holes you will vote for at the next election.

        • Kempe

          ” In 1939, I think Britain imported about the same proportion of its food as it does today, but by 1945 we were fully self-sufficient. ”

          Due to various factors we imported an even greater proportion of our food in 1939 than we do today and we were by no means self sufficient in food by 1945. Despite rationing and the total unavailability of some goods much still had to be imported and food rationing couldn’t be finally abolished until the 1950s.

      • Tom Welsh

        Energy is much more controverrsial and perhaps technical tougher. Personally, I would go nuclear – despite the shrieks of protest – as I believe it is the only way to get enough energy in the long term with acceptable environmental impact. Waste need not be a problem if we can build WAMSRs, which actually consume existing nuclear waste as fuel. The waste that is already there, causing agonizing storage problems, would be enough to provide the whole world’s energy needs for 70 years.

        • Loony

          Nuclear is unlikely to be the road to salvation.

          The problem is liquid fuels. Diesel is used for road transportation and for various machinery that does work – tractors, harvesters, mining machinery etc. Kerosene (or aviation fuel) is used for aviation. There are no obvious alternatives available, certainly not nuclear and certain not electricity or any form of renewable energy.

          Electric cars will likely replace gasoline fueled cars, Once this reaches a certain level then you are faced with the problem of what to do with all the gasoline that you have refined as a necessary consequence of producing diesel and kerosene. Other than motor cars there is not really much of a demand for gasoline – the odd chainsaw and lawn mower notwithstanding.

          • Martinned

            Well, given Tom’s stated goal of turning the UK into an autarky, nuclear might be a problem. I don’t think there are any uranium mines around these parts.

      • philw

        The UK wastes about 40% of the food that goes on the shelves, either through supermarket wastage, home wastage, or excessive consumption. If it had to feed itself there is little doubt the UK could. There would be no need for people to starve. This is not to say that people would not starve if we continued a capitalist model whereby the wealth of the rich ensured that resources all went into wasteful beef production (for instance).

        The UK could also become self-sufficient in renewable energy, if resources were devoted to it.

        Similarly everyone could be housed if people were only allowed to own one house, in which they had to be resident, with the remainder being bought up for social housing. (This would also save us a fortune in housing benefit, which basically serves to keep up the price of housing by allowing the rentiers to charge enormous rents.)

        • Loony

          It is true that the UK wastes around 40% of its food. It is also true that modern fertilizers increase crop yields by around 40%

          As these fertilizers are based on oil there would be something of a problem without oil. This problem would be compounded by a lack of oil to power the machines utilized to spread the fertilizer and harvest the crops.

          Renewable energy does nothing (perhaps less than nothing) to solve the energy requirements for transportation and various types of machinery.

          • bevin

            “… . It is also true that modern fertilizers increase crop yields by around 40%.”
            Increase over what?
            Organic farming crop yields exceed those of chemical fertiliser users.
            Chemical fertilisers give farmers more flexibility-no need for rotations, no need for animal manure.
            They do not increase crop yields, merely profits.

        • RobG

          philw, these people couldn’t run a piss-up in a brewery, let alone feeding their own population.

          If it all goes tits up on the international stage (which these same people are screaming for) Britain will be at starvation stage within a week.

          That’s the reality.

          But keep on believing the total BS from the mainstream media, if it makes you feel better.

          If the worst comes to worst, it won’t fill your stomach, though.

          • philw

            RobG

            Who are ‘these people’?

            Does anything in your comment relate in any way to anything I wrote?

        • michael norton

          If people ate 40% less, they would be more healthy, back in the olden days hardly anybody was type2.
          These days half the population of the United Kingdom are lard arses.

  • MJ

    Not quite sure what this has got do with “British Brexit” (as though there could be any other kind).

    • Tom Welsh

      More than you might think. The population density of the UK as a whole is roughly double the EU average, so we don’t really deserve to get substantial net immigration from the EU. And that leads on to the whole discussion about overpopulation.

      Anyone seriously interested in the facts, as far as they can be ascertained, is invited to look at the Population Matters Overshoot Index, which shows how far each country in the world (and the world, and the various continents) have gone beyond a sustainable population level. The levels used in this document are admittedly very conservative. The sustainable population level for the UK is 17 million.

      • Martinned

        Oh god, autarky, the obsession of fascists and communists throughout the 20th century. Are all the old ghosts really coming back to haunt us?

  • Alcyone

    Re “shoddy” trainers etc, Adidas shoes come with a two-year warranty. Further anything is returnable with a full refund within 100 days for any reason whatsoever, even if they have been used. Don’t believe me, check out their website or ring their 0800 number.

    I am just returning a pair of expensive ultra boosts (top comfort) bought early last summer for a full refund. And just ordered a pair of adidas porsche design all leather trainers with boost soles such top-quality, I can’t wait!

    Moral of the story:

    1 the Uk is a discerning market

    2 especially when it comes to shoes, you get what you pay for

    3 consumer protection in our society is pretty darned evolved and good!

    Stop moaning.

    • Sharp Ears

      Are you serious? You must have money to burn.

      Men Porsche Design Sport by adidas
      PDS Ultra Boost Trainer Shoes
      £ 239.95
      Adidas website.

      • Alcyone

        Their is another version, with all leather (good for the winter), sells at Pds !80 plus my refund of 105 to come. Nett price pds 75. It’s a bargain!

  • Alcyone

    I have less of a quarrel with stuff coming from China, which is distinctly cheaper and more of an issue with non-PDO stuff like shampoo, soap, body lotion even chocolate coming from Germany.

    We can and they will (re)start making this stuff here. That would also be more eco-friendly.

    Also, I take issue Craig with your alluding to stuff from China necessarily being of poor quality. That was fashionable of Japan at one time in the ’50’s and ’60’s, but you’re way behind on China now. Btw, the media especially tv hardly covered China’s most recent space-shot to their space station including two taikonauts.

    • Tom Welsh

      Disparaging China is a large and rapidly growing industry in the West. Every year since 2000 or before I have read the doom-laden reports about how the Chinese bubble is about to burst, and how the Chinese economy’s growth has falled drastically to 8% or whatever – compared to the UK economy’s growth rate of zero plus or minus a gnat’s whisker. But they just go on building vast cities, high-speed rail lines, and all sorts of marvellous infrastructure while we, apparently, can’t even afford to mend the potholes in our roads.

      • Alcyone

        Really!

        Hats off to China for what they have achieved. Look at India, it looks like an absolute laggard in comparison…and a disgusting society, if i can generalise, to boot.

          • Republicofscotland

            True, and China pretends to be a communist country, when it reality, it’s a corporatocracy. Though, I’d say that the likes of China, Russia, and the British and the USA governments, are Kakistocracys.

          • Alcyone

            Very true, Martin, however I feel there is another trick that India could learn from China, and from the sculptor, Anish Kapoor which is: Think Big, Dream Big and learn to team play and put men and materials together efficiently to produce.

            China is the perfect experiment of political communism; India is the perfect experiment of political corruption. Whatever little democracy India has is too convoluted to breathe

  • Ben

    Tourism seems to be the only industry not in decline so the price of souvenirs and such is germaine.

    Textiles? Airframes? Finance?

    What are the implications?

      • Alcyone

        “Am I thinking correctly?”

        No. And as usual you’re talking to yourself. Actually, what you are ‘thinking’ is one of the longer-standing mysteries out here. But not intriguing.

        • Ben

          As usual, inane with garden-variety numbnuttery.

          Has your member recovered from your OCD masturbations?

  • Tom Welsh

    I would prefer that we call it “Independence” rather than “Brexit”. Unless Craig wants to start talking about “Scexit” (or should that be “Skexit” or Schexit”?) … 😎

  • eddie-g

    To be a little fair, the post-Brexit (and post-Cameron/Osborne) Britain appears to be bringing a sustained weaker currency, continued loose monetary policy, and potentially we hear, fiscal expansion.

    And that is more a credible basis for sustained recovery than what’s gone before.

    We shouldn’t have needed Brexit to bring about this policy mix, and the xenophobic backdrop has provided an unfortunate Weimarian element to the piece; the really uncomfortable aspect however is that if there is a sound recovery, the xenophobes will think they’ve been proven right. When in fact, all you’re seeing is basic Keynesian macro at work.

  • RobG

    Wikileaks part 17 just released; more dirt on Hillary & Co which the MSM are completely ignoring.

    Actually, of even more interest was the FBI release a week ago, about their investigation into Hillary and that e-mail server. The FBI release shows that Obama, the President of the USA, completely lied when he said, on record back in the summer, that he did not use the dodgy Hillary e-mail server. The FBI release shows that Obama did use Hillary’s dodgy server, and he did so under an equally dodgy e-mail address. Repeat: this is the President of the USA, openly caught out lying; but all we get from the MSM is…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXUiqEVlSbk

    God help us all.

  • Andrew

    The pound has been losing value since Queen Victoria’s day. When Charles Dickens visited America in 1896, his pound bought seven dollars. Today, you’ll be lucky to get $1.20.

    Meanwhile, the dollar itself has rapidly lost purchasing power in recent decades, so the pound’s external collapse has been even worse than it appears.

      • Andrew

        Bevin, you are of course correct. My mistake. Dickens made his second and last visit to the USA in 1867-8, when he earned a fortune from “readings” to huge crowds of fans, much like the Beatles a century later.

  • Geoffrey

    So post Brexit there is a small improvement in the reading model. The UK will spend less on foreign goods and services. The trade balance will improve slightly. Our standard of living will move towards our income . Less government debt will be issued. A western democracy will survive a bit longer than otherwise. A little bit better than before.

    • RobG

      Why do people like you find it so hard to understand that the UK is not “a western democracy” and is just a vassal state of America?

      I have to ask again: what planet are you people on?!

      Brexit won’t happen, because Washington won’t allow it.

  • K Crosby

    Actually Craig, that’s been the state economic model since the mid-70s. It’s sustainable as long as the state is immune to accountability.

  • fedup

    The stated merry go around in the post, apparently is the model of economy that is being shoved down the throats of everyone as the only viable model.

    However this line of moribund thought is rooted at the utter shite that is being spewed by the oligarch owned media along with the state owned media. The examples of which is to be found in Gary Lineker getting ganged up on and facing petitions for his sacking for his great sin of being; “not racist enough”.

    However the following scenario may come to play whilst the racists and paid stooges of foreign interests are busy pushing the same drivel;

    As in the case of Egyptian Morsi post the “Arab spring” the planned and enforced financial austerity will start eating away at the “brexit” (Brit Spring/Autumn/Summer) believers/voters by hitting their wallet. This in turn will create an atmosphere of lets get back into the EU, better the devil you know etc.

    One of the obstacles of pound joining the Euro was the over valued pound an often stated and restated fact. However with the current devaluation that has befallen the pound, and it’s continuation, the parity of one Euro one pound will pave the way for the full integration into EU.

    Ergo the EU exacting the heavy price of rejoining the single market included the adoption of Euro!

    How’s about that for a perfect shaft that no one could seem coming?

    • Alcyone

      Since you’ve had a few perfect shafts before, we can give you credence for recognising another one coming. Sit back and enjoy the ride….Independence is coming to the UK! Good night Fedup.

    • Loony

      I am confused. Are you claiming that leaving the EU was a decision driven by “racists”? I have no idea how Gary Lineker is connected to this, has he been sending food to the people of Greece or something?

      Any attempt for the UK to remain in or rejoin the EU is under some degree of time pressure. There is a referendum coming up in Italy in December, and whatever the outcome things are not looking good for Renzi. Conversely things are looking up for Beppe Grillo and his 5^Movement, who seem likely to be on the winning side whatever the outcome of the referendum.

      This article explains

      https://mishtalk.com/2016/10/22/renzis-gamble-even-bigger-than-most-think/

      It is not the EU that is exacting a price – It is the people of Europe waking up and rising up to throw off their chains.

    • Ben

      “One of the obstacles of pound joining the Euro was the over valued pound an often stated and restated fact. However with the current devaluation that has befallen the pound, and it’s continuation, the parity of one Euro one pound will pave the way for the full integration into EU.

      Ergo the EU exacting the heavy price of rejoining the single market included the adoption of Euro!”

      That’s perceptive but a little too deep for the entourage. Plus the knee-jerkers will focus on typo rather than content. I wonder if Brexit and inflation in Ecuador have a relationship being island states of sorts.

      • fedup

        Ben You are correct, and you are on the right tracks.

        Financial fire power is not as quick as the kinetic power, nonetheless serves the same ends; asset transfer on the cheap!

        The game is rigged and those setting the rules win every time; on the up cycle and in the down cycle alike.

  • Becky Cohen

    The minimum wage should be fixed to the average price of a house. Within one week of work an employee should be able to rent accommodation and within three years an employee should be able to afford a £250, 000 house. Anything else is robbery and enslavement of the worker.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    An incredibly simple-minded prediction when, of course, whatever China does is only most marginally relevant.

    It’s a question of what happens globally, especially with European finances, markets, businesses, populations, services, defences, and benefits, showing that the Little Iron Lady will have to settle for a soft Brexit.

  • michael norton

    The U.S.A. administration has been secretly considering sending more firepower to CIA-backed rebels fighting Syrian government forces, including weapons that can be used against Russian aircraft and artillery, according to a media report.

    Citing US officials, who preferred to remain anonymous, the Washington Post reported the existence of a so-called ‘Plan B,’ which in case of “failed diplomatic efforts” provided for arming US-backed Syrian rebels with truck-mounted anti-aircraft weapons that could help rebel units “defend themselves against Russian aircraft and artillery.”

    It says the plan was raised several times over the course of recent weekly White House meetings and was submitted to President Barack Obama during a National Security Council meeting on October 14.
    https://www.rt.com/usa/363940-us-syria-opposition-arms/

    get Hillary and more of this crap will happen
    WW3 on the way

    • michael norton

      Assange to be blocked from internet till end of US election – lawyer

      Julian Assange will be blocked from access to the internet until the end of the US presidential elections, his lawyer, Melinda Taylor, was quoted as saying by Sputnik on Monday. She added that the move is unlikely to affect the activities of WikiLeaks. Ecuador’s government acknowledged last week that it had cut off the WikiLeaks founder’s internet access at its embassy in London after the whistleblowing site published a trove of damaging emails from Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

      RT

      • Ben

        I would love to have been in the room with Craig when he learned who leaked to WL.

        Trump supporters love Assange…for now as a useful idiot.

        If it was our shadow government, it makes little sense. They want Trump? I don’t think so. Hillary is their best option as a war-momnger Shiva the Destroyer.

        Perhaps the biggest scumbags of interest are in the Financial markets, but again…markets like stability and Trump would bring chaos.

        Is there some future archetypal negotiations that the Oracle deems best served by a crippled US political landscape? MI6 and Brexit?

        • Loony

          Maybe you should look closer to home.

          What kind of robber shoots Seth Rich in the back and then does not steal anything?

  • RobG

    I will repeat, yet again, that the UK is a vassal state of America.

    Until Brits start understanding this quite blatant fact there really is no hope.

    Nothing – repeat, nothing – is done in the interests of the citizens. It’s all done in the interest of trans-national corporations.

    Until the masses wake-up to this fact there is no hope.

    • michael norton

      a friend told me today that there are millions of people in the United states of America living on the streets, they have fallen through the cracks,
      I thought they all lived in big houses and had two cars each?

    • Loony

      Pretty much all states are vassals of the US, after all that is what having the $ as world reserve currency is all about. Going forward things must change – the question is how? With some degree of order or in total chaos?

      The best bets for some kind of manageable (survivable) adjustment appears to be Trump in the US and a fracturing and dismembering of the EU in Europe.

      Even if these things come to pass the risks will remain high for the elites are addicted to privilege and they will not go gentle into that good night. The people are largely brainwashed and are more than likely to support policies calculated to bring about their own destruction.

  • lysias

    Alex Salmond said a short time ago on RT that, if Scottish conditions for Brexit are not met, there will have to be a second Scottish vote on independence.

    • michael norton

      Apparently Frau Sturgeon is going apoplectic
      because Frau May will not take Nicola seriously,
      poor darling.

      • kailyard rules

        You exaggerate. There is nothing apoplectic in stating there will be a vote on Scottish independence as stated quite clearly in the manifesto which a majority in Scotland voted for.

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