The Balance of Probabilities 1084


Unlike the famous chemical weapons “attack” portrayed by the BBC in Saving Syria’s Children, it does appear that in the latest incident at Idlib there was real horror inflicted by chemical attack of some kind. The question is who did it and why?

I am no fan of the Assad regime, and I have no problem using the word “regime” to describe it. Dictators do hold and win elections. I have lived in severe dictatorships and seen from the inside how they do it. The human rights abuses of the Assad regime have been well documented for decades.

But Bashar al Assad is neither stupid nor unsophisticated. Aided by Putin, he outwitted Obama by quickly giving up his chemical weapons to be destroyed and accepting transparency in verification. There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.

Assad had seen his position go from strength to strength, thanks to Putin’s astute deployment of Russia’s limited military power. Militarily the balance had swung dramatically in Assad’s favour, while Trump had said the unsayable and acknowledged that putting Syria into the hands of Wahabbist crazies was not in the United States interest.

So I cannot conceive that Assad would risk throwing all of this away for the sake of a militarily insignificant small chemical weapons attack. It would be an act of the most extreme folly. It is not impossible – hubris is a great temptation to dictators – but given how Assad has played it so far, it seems out of character and extremely improbable. What is less improbable is a local battlefield decision by pro-Assad forces. In my close observation of dictatorial regimes, a fascinating feature is that they operate an image of the perfection of the state. They are highly adverse to admitting mistakes.

What did happen I do not profess to know. There are at least eleven major identifiable state and non-state forces involved in the fighting around Idlib. In going through them all and considering opportunity and motive for each, I continually find that those whose motive would be false flag stand to benefit a great deal more than those who might have been seeking military advantage.

I am therefore for now unconvinced that this was a deliberate use of chemical weapons by Assad forces. I do not rule it out, but it would take much more concrete evidence than currently offered to prove they did something so strongly and obviously against their own interest. But western governments and media have determined to make that the narrative, so the truth is, as so often in modern geo-politics, entirely incidental to the course of future events.


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1,084 thoughts on “The Balance of Probabilities

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    • Salford Lad

      Ex British diplomat gives a studied opinion on the Tomahawk attack on Syria.
      https://consortiumnews.com/2017/04/08/trumps-59-tomahawk-tweet/
      There are some obvious details that do not compute on the US story.
      It takes several days to research a target,
      It takes time to put the warships in position
      The Russians and Syrians, under an agreement, gave details of the warehouse target to the US days before the warehouse attack.
      The gas released was not Sarin, which causes death by inhalation or skin contact. It appears to have been a mix of chlorine and other agents,This disproves an aerial bombardment with chemical weapons.
      From the above ,I would deduce that the warehouse was a mousetrap, set up for the desired atrocity effect.
      This is pure evil, but we need to face the fact that we are dealing with very evil people,with no compuction to sacrifice innocents in pursuit of their agendas.

  • michael norton

    You Scottish people have Des Browne to thank for the two new super aircraft carriers being constructed in Scotland.
    Prince of Wales is currently being assembled at Rosyth from 52 blocks built by six shipyards around the UK. Construction began on 26 May 2011, with the first steel being cut at Govan shipyard by Dr Liam Fox.[1] As of April 2016, the ship is said to be around 80% structurally complete. Should be slipping into the water, some time in 2017.
    Under current plans, Prince of Wales will be commissioned in 2020.

    It must make you proud to be Scottish.

    In a few years time they could be accompanying an American fleet to crush some country into the dust.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39542990

    The US military has ordered a navy strike group to move towards the Korean peninsula, amid growing concerns about North Korea’s missile programme.

    The Carl Vinson Strike Group comprises an aircraft carrier and other warships.

    • michael norton

      During its first overseas deployment in 2011, the body of Osama bin Laden was flown to the Carl Vinson for burial at sea.

      • Salford Lad

        Osama Bin Laden died in December 2001 from renal failure.
        His obituary was published in Pakistani and Saudi papers.
        His supposed assasination at Abbotbad was a Hollywood propaganda job to assist Obamas re-election.No photos ,videos, DNA or otherwise have ever been released.

      • michael norton

        Thank you for the correction.

        The main point though was about The Carl Vinson Strike Group
        nuclear powering itself to be adjacent to Korea, ready for a FIRST STRIKE

        • Ball

          michael,

          Will this fleet soon be in range of a North Korean nuke strike?

          ie the US hierarchy sending some cannon fodder into range so as to have a ‘retaliatory’ reason to take full control of Korea(whole)?

          Why would the ‘crazy’ NK’s make such a move? The same logic behind suicide car bomber after suicide car bomber in Syria and Iraq. When the writings on the wall, might as well go out with a bang, rather than a bullet.

      • Chris Rogers

        Lagurre,

        Well, the Yanks could always do what the Welsh did when Napoleon threatened to invade the UK via Wales, namely said 20 vehicles could be driven around in a continuous circle for a few days giving the impression of 100s of combat vehicles – it would be a heavy on the gas policy, although I’m informed that the ME has lots of Gas to power these beasts sitting underground.

    • Chris Rogers

      Suhayl Saadi,

      Whilst the US military certainly have assets in Jordan, I’m afraid to say that logistics alone makes it virtually impossible for the USA to build up the necessary materials to enter Syria in force in the course of 48hrs.

      Further, given the GCC forces could not fight their way out of a paper bag and are reliant on Western military personnel (be they active of former) in order to function, that option is just not viable – just go and see how Saudi Arabia is getting its arse kicked in Yemen.

      Maybe, it best you go to actual websites that have ‘form’ in getting these matters correct and issuing advice as to what’s possible and what’s not possible.

      As a reminder, and despite Trump’s illegal attack on Syria via Executive Order, he’d require Congressional Authority if a boots on the ground policy were adopted – Special Forces capabilities exempt from this though.

      Hence, swing by Sic Semper Tyrannis website and learn what’s necessary from those who know what they are talking, namely, they are neither armchair generals or chickenhawks as so many in DC actually are.

  • michael norton

    Islamists attack church North East of Cairo.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39544451
    Egypt Coptic church blast kills at least 13
    in Nile Delta

    At least 13 people have been killed in an explosion at a church in northern Egypt, state media say.

    The blast targeted St George’s Coptic church in the city of Tanta in the Nile Delta.

    A number of television channels said at least 40 people had been injured in the Palm Sunday attack.

    The cause of the explosion is not yet known but Egypt’s Christian minority has often been targeted by Islamist militants in recent years.

    Provincial governor Ahmad Deif told the state-run Nile channel: “Either a bomb was planted or someone blew himself up.”

    A search is under way for any more explosives which could be in the vicinity.

    • michael norton

      The tourist income in Egypt is right down
      since the Sinai eXplosion of a Russian aircraft.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrojet_Flight_9268

      I think ten or twelve percent of the population of Egypt are Christians,
      they must be gettin annoyed with Sisi,
      like France under military occupation but no cease in the outrages

  • michael norton

    Oslo police destroy ‘bomb-like device’
    Ministry of Truth

    I expect we will be told it is a right wing lone wolf with mental problems
    what done it.

  • Alcyone

    Every day is a gift; it’s a matter of whether you accept it or not.

    On a clear day like this, one can see (*the*) forever.

    • J

      An honest question, what use is a perspective as vast as *the* forever to the average working mum with three kids? I think I know, but how would you convince her?

      • Alcyone

        J, an honest answer:

        A. I am not trying to convince anybody. Perhaps provoke but not convince. The other has to do the work, I’m sure you will agree.
        B. My intention is not to convey a perspective. One can discuss the content and examine if it is true.

        Suffice it to say that everybody thinks their particular problems are larger than another’s. Maybe, maybe not. Do we not all have our problems, suffering, fear, pain, desires, as well as access to pleasure and even joy?

        I suppose what I was referring to was clarity. It takes some work. And one only makes it difficult to drive if one’s windshield is not clear. Or even to enjoy the view of the countryside?

  • michael norton

    TERROR IN SWEDEN

    as predicted by The Scottish Donald “Look at Sweden”

    Sweden questioning seven people over deadly truck attack – police
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-sweden-attack-idUKKBN17B08L

    Swedish police have brought in seven people for questioning over an apparent terror attack in which a hijacked delivery truck mowed down pedestrians in Stockholm, killing four people, authorities said on Sunday.

    A 39-year-old Uzbek man was arrested earlier as the suspected driver of the truck that rammed into crowds in the Swedish capital on Friday. The man had been known to Swedish security services but had no clear links to militant groups.

    A further 15 people were injured when the beer delivery truck barrelled down a busy shopping street before crashing into a department store and catching fire.

    • michael norton

      *BREAKING*
      Stockholm attack: British national confirmed among victims
      Ministry of Truth

  • Alain FOURNIER

    Your fine arguments were exactly what I was thinking, but of course in a much sophisticated way. Assad is a very clever person, why using chemical bombs when he has finalised the rendition of Aleppo and the support of Russian airforce bombing ISIS centres in Palmyra and their main centres.

    Thank you for your fine analysed comments on Middle East.

  • michael norton

    I wonder what the balance of probabilities is on
    The Scottish Donald doing a FULL-ON- INVASION of SYRIA
    this Summer?

    or perhaps he will concentrate in first taking out North Korea.
    Maybe he will toss a lucky silver dollar?

    • TH

      Why not both? I just read Trump have sent a fleet to North Korea, amazing, this guy is nuts, he tries to prove he is not pro-Russia and pro-Nato/deep state.

    • laguerre

      Ten-year quagmire is not what Trump wants. The only possible outcome of such an invasion.

  • Republicofscotland

    “Two Jags” Prescott, condemned Michael Howard and Theresa May over Howard’s veiled threat to Spain over Gibraltar.

    Prescott claims his brother- in-law lives in Southern Spain, and travels regularly to Gibraltar to stock up on British goods.

    He (Prescott) adds that he and his wife visit Gibraltar and stay will his brother-in-law regularly, in Southern Spain.

    Well Prescott appears to have a dog in the fight, if Spain somehow manages to snatch Gibraltar from the Brexiteers. Old “Two Jags” would be pretty miffed I think.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/spain-armada-gibraltar-john-prescott-10185254

    • michael norton

      Wrong thread RoS

      Fallon is hyping it up, he is right up the arse of
      The Scottish Donald, he wants war war.

      • AnonScot

        A summary of the norton analysis

        Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks, Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks, Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks, Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks, Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks, Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks, Scottish Donald, Scotland is shit, SNPBAAAD, Scot on Scot murder, Sturgeon sucks ad infinitum.

        Would anyone guess norton hates anything Scottish?
        One has to ask the question, Why?

        • glenn_uk

          You forgot an important element…

          Brexit Brexit Hard Brexit Stiff Throbbing Brexit means hard Brexit Brexit Brexit….

  • Michael McNulty

    There’s an interesting 10 minute video where Russian spokeswoman Maria Zakharova discusses the US missile attack on Syria. She goes on to say that in the early hours right after the attack American mainstream journalists were ringing her to ask what was going on and what was US policy. She told them they needed to start questioning their own government. All in all a sober analysis.

    With subtitles, https://vimeo.com/212397958

    • John Goss

      “A lot of Putin-Apologists and Useful Idiots seem to have the hots for Maria Zakharova, don’t they.

      Perhaps they’re mixing her up with the lissom Maria Sharapova…?”

      No. I think that is just you.

  • michael norton

    Syria air strikes: Russian warship armed with cruise missiles heading for Syria as tensions rise with US

    Russia says ship will respond to the ‘changing military situation’
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-air-strikes-missiles-trump-assad-putin-russia-sharyat-admiral-grigorovich-warship-cruise-a7673671.html
    A Russian warship armed with cruise missiles is heading to the Syrian coast in the wake of the first direct strike by the US on Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

    The Admiral Grigorovich has been deployed from the Black Sea to head for the port of Tartus, which houses a Russian naval base.

    “The ship will operate in the region in accordance to the changing military situation,” state media reported, adding that it carries cruise missiles, a missile defence system, artillery, anti-aircraft guns, torpedoes and can dock a helicopter.
    The Admiral Grigorovich, which previously passed through the English Channel on its way to bomb Aleppo, is one of at least six Russian warships and four support vessels in the eastern Mediterranean.

    The area was the launch point for 59 cruise missiles launched from two American warships in the early hours of Friday morning, killing at least six Syrian soldiers while destroying planes, ammunition stores and buildings.

    Russia was among the countries that also used the base, but the US warned Vladimir Putin’s forces ahead of the strike and none of the Kremlin’s troops were killed.

    Well this is all ramping up nicely for a long hot Summer.
    Who will blink first.

    I would guess that the Israelis are behind all this ramped up twaddle.

    • Habbabkuk

      Norton rushes in where others fear to tread :

      “I would guess that the Israelis are behind all this ramped up twaddle.”

      Attaboy, Norton, it’s the Juice ! 🙂

    • michael norton

      If The Admiral Grigorovich is in place in a days time
      and either of the American boats fire off another volley of Tomahawks, the Russians would be within their rights to take outy the American war fleet.

    • bevin

      Of course those 150,000 troops would be going not primarily to Syria but to Iran which is the real target of the Israeli fascists.
      It is hard to believe that an attack on Iran would not prompt Russian intervention, although, in Macchiavellism terms, it may be possible for China to make a case that it would serve their long term interests to tempt the USA to over extend itself by attacking Iran. That would be a radical choice for China and an unwise one.
      Part of the calculation has to involve the matter of whether the US could afford such an intervention. Where would it get the troops and logistics?
      Again, there are obvious options: France and Germany being among them. Britain being at the top of the list. Will Le Pen come out against joining a coalition? Will Macron favour doing so? Will the Left in Germany get it together enough to put forwards a clear policy? Probably not? Will Labour be paralysed by Blairite Fifth Columnists? Almost certainly.
      We are back in 2002 and sooner or later someone is going to wheel out that old Hegelian witticism from the 18th Brumaire of Louis Napoleon again, because Trump is a veteran farceur, although he has never before played to such a large audience.
      A big “thank you” from us all to the American people for making it crystal clear that if there is just one nation on earth unfitted to own armed forces it is the one that needs them least, which has never been invaded, has never heard an enemy shot on its territory…
      As to Israel, this is what happens when a country is governed by competing factions, all fascist, putting forward ever more extreme and extravagant policies and always being able to rely on other countries to bail it out militarily and economically. It is Israel, and Likud in particular, that wants war with Iran, just as it did with Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya.

      • Chris Rogers

        Bevin,

        If the US Military is under the illusion that an armed force of 150K could take out Iran, they really are seriously deluded, particularly given most of Iran’s military capabilities are of a defensive, rather than offensive nature. Unlike in Iraq, Iran’s military capability is both strong and most of its population has little interest in the USA, or having USA military set a foot on their territory – if the Yanks think Iraq was tough, they’ll really know what tough is if they incur the wrath of the Persian’s.

        As for China, we’ll I differ to you here, in no way do I see China doing a deal with the US to cut off its nose with Iran, which is part of its longterm Silk Road strategy. Further, China’s naval ability is growing, but its actual onshore naval capabilities – shore based SSMs – are lethal, and that’s before we bang Taiwan and North Korea into the equations.

        Lets be blunt, the USA is suffering from both overreach and hubris, so, unless they are envisaging a nuclear exchange, which is regrettably what we’ll get, somehow i don’t see this flying, particularly given the rumblings already in the Flyover states from the ‘deplorable’, many of whom feel betrayed by Trump – they want jobs and not war and many of the ‘deplorables’ are armed, so, do you really think the Yanks can fight a war on three fronts, namely the ME, South China Sea and on the mid-plains of the USA itself?

        • bevin

          I don’t disagree with you. I am simply saying that there is a possibility, remote but worth taking into account, that Washington thinks that it can neutralise China’s obvious-existential interest- in keeping the US out of Iran which is the gateway to Central Asia.
          As to the possibility of conquering Iran with 150,000, or a million and a half troops, I agree that that is irrational.
          But then Trump is irrational. He is surrounded by irrational warmongers (see Iraq in their prophesies and in fact) and Israel’s fascists have a death wish.
          Again I agree that the USA is on the edge of a social volcano and that the masses, unlike the political caste and the media, really do not care whether Assad uses poison gas or eats children- in practical terms much of the country lives one or two days work away from poverty. All that is wanted is a catalyst…
          The problem is that the media and the political caste in the United States have constructed a dream world in which they live and whose supposed strengths-300 million patriots ready to fight any war, make any sacrifice, happy not to be insulted by ‘socialist’ medicine, patiently waiting for those cleaner, better jobs to replace the factories offshored, the finest army with the most powerful weapons, the cleverest generals, etc etc etc. And above all a world which regards America with love and rsspect, just wants to be like them- they mobilise in their minds.
          In fact the armed forces are a rabble. The arsenal is very different from the one in the suppliers catalogue that taxes paid for. And at any moment they might need 150,000 troops to hold down St Louis or Los Angeles.

      • J

        Doesn’t it all look, from a certain perspective, like a kind of bizarre nostalgia for a past, for a purpose and a time when ruling elites and all those who subsidise them through shares and investments didn’t need to explain themselves?

        Reactionary in the purest possible sense.

    • laguerre

      150,000 ground troops to Syria (or to Iran) sounds improbable to me. The US public would never tolerate it (though as you say, there are madmen who might try it). A ten-year quagmire is the only possible consequence, and that wouldn’t go down well.

      I don’t think people have correctly digested the significance of the 59 Tomahawk strike. As there was so little effect from so many missiles, it can only be understood as a major failure of US arms, or, for some reason, Trump deliberately softened the blow. If the latter, we’re not looking at a possible major escalation. If the former, they’re trying to hide it, but can’t repeat it without major risk of conflict with the Russians (who have cleverly now cut off the deconflict telephone line).

      • John Goss

        Laguerre, it is a proposal to Trump. I cannot see him considering it if he has any sense. I know that starts a whole different debate. 🙂

    • Habbabkuk

      Goss

      Well, according to “Cernovich Media”, that is.

      “Current National Security Adviser Herbert Raymond “H. R.” McMaster is manipulating intelligence reports given to President Donald Trump, Cernovich Media can now report.”

      Who or what the fuck are “Cernovich Media” ? 🙂

      Another half-mad tosser “emancipated” by the internet?

  • Dave Lawton

    A sample from fake news on IT.

    “This bipolar president in a multipolar world
    Is now speaking of a nuclear High Noon.
    Must we really go to hell in Trump’s hand-cart
    To the sound of a mad tycoon’s loony tunes?
    The mad President latches onto unproven news
    To make himself look decisive.
    He won’t admit Syrians to the US, but he’ll bomb them
    Thus making himself the foulest object of derision.
    After feigning emotion about “beautiful babies murdered”
    Trump launches fifty nine missiles in a “measured attack”
    He murders nine civilians and four children
    In the countryside of al-Sha’aryat.”
    Heathcote Williams

    http://internationaltimes.it/fake-news-2/

  • bevin

    Any comment, from medicos,perhaps, on the following?:
    “…The recent attack against Syria is the best possible confirmation to the notion that Western media sources have their hands deep in blood, even though they are murdering people “indirectly.” He who controls the information today has power that outweighs any international treaty, and Trump is not shy to use such power. Let us recall the cartoonish human rights heroes, the White Helmets, who received an Oscar for the best PR fairytale aimed at fooling people. And now, out of the blue, after being absent for so long, the White Helmets materialized out of thin air in Idlib, providing Washington with enough sentimental support for it to justify a new war.

    “However, this time around the true nature of the White Helmets has been exposed by the Swedish Doctors For Human Right organization. According to its experts who studied the footage of the White Helmets allegedly assisting civilians after a gas attack in Idlib, they came to the conclusion that those so-called volunteers were not helping civilians, instead they’ve been killing them in a bid to obtain the best possible footage. It was noted that one does not inject children suffering from a gas attack with adrenaline shots through the heart, while using a long needle. A set of symptoms associated with chemical poisoning has to be treated differently. Moreover, the child that was filmed for propaganda purposes didn’t receive the medicine since the alleged doctor didn’t press the plunger of the syringe. As it’s been reported by alternative media site Veterans Today, the footage was an example of murder disguised as an attempt to provide medical assistance to the dying child.”
    http://journal-neo.org/2017/04/09/are-trump-s-military-plans-going-to-come-to-fruition-idlib-pyongyang-teheran-and-then-everywhere/

    • John Goss

      Bevin I know this story from Swedish Doctors for Human Rights and its chairman Professor Marcello Ferrada de Noli. In my mind there can be little doubt that the White Helmets had a hand in this recent attack. Professor de Noli’s article predates the recent alleged chemical attack and refers to an earlier incident, a gas attack also in Idlib. He has however been asked to comment on the more recent attack in Stockholm and there is an article in Global Research today. As to the White Helmets and the alleged attack on Tuesday to which Trump responded disproportionately here is an article showing that footage may be, if not a false-flag, staged largely by the oscar-winning White Helmets.

      http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/gloves-are-sissies-photographs-show-white-helmets-are-immune-sarin/ri19458

  • TH

    Trump should listen to Wilkerson:

    “Lawrence Wilkerson, a former Army colonel and chief of staff for Colin Powell at the United States Department of State, expressed this week strong criticism of the US government adding more and more nations to its enemies list. ”
    Lawrence Wilkerson Warns US Generating Enemies Beyond its Capacity to Deal With
    http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/peace-and-prosperity/2017/march/14/lawrence-wilkerson-warns-us-generating-enemies-beyond-its-capacity-to-deal-with/

  • Ball

    BRICs – (wiki)
    ———————
    BRICS is the acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Originally the first four were grouped as “BRIC” (or “the BRICs”), before the induction of South Africa in 2010.[4] The BRICS members are all leading developing or newly industrialized countries, but they are distinguished by their large, sometimes fast-growing economies and significant influence on regional affairs; all five are G-20 members.[5] Since 2009, the BRICS nations have met annually at formal summits. China will host the 9th BRICS summit in Xiamen on September 3rd, 4th and 5th, 2017.[6] The term does not include countries such as South Korea, Mexico and Turkey for which other acronyms and group associations were later created.

    As of 2015, the five BRICS countries represent over 3.6 billion people, or half of the world population; all five members are in the top 25 of the world by population, and four are in the top 10. The five nations have a combined nominal GDP of US$16.6 trillion, equivalent to approximately 22% of the gross world product, combined GDP (PPP) of around US$37 trillion and an estimated US$4 trillion in combined foreign reserves.[7][8] Overall the BRICS are forecasted to expand 4.6% in 2016, from an estimated growth of 3.9% in 2015. The World bank expects BRICS growth to pick up to 5.3% in 2017.[9] The BRICS have received both praise and criticism from numerous commentators.[10][11][12] Bilateral relations among BRICS nations have mainly been conducted on the basis of non-interference, equality, and mutual benefit.[13]
    —————-

    Russia and China in US crosshairs, Brazil and S.Africa governments being brought down by the wrong kind of corruption (not US approved), India should be worried.

    South Korea, Mexico and Turkey also members. I see a pattern here.

    The IMF/World bank do not like competition.

    Bias and unfair western sanctions will be nullified in the not so distant future. Can’t be having that.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Can any rational person believe that getting rid of Assad is a solution to the Middle East’s problems which the West has allowed Washimgton to bust up in retaliation for the 9/11 cockups?

    • Chris Rogers

      THF,

      Apart from the usual ‘Librul’ suspects on this Blog, those who actually take note of past outcomes (History) can be under no illusion whatsoever that the removal of any secular Arab leader leads but to utter disaster, however awful they themselves maybe. As such, and with the knowledge at hand with have from Tunisia, Iraq and Libya, it really is a case of ‘better the devil you know’, rather than unleashing Jihadist elements hellbent on total and utter destruction across MENA, and by extension, down to South East Asia.

      Your peers in DC though seem intent not only on extinguishing any form of secular democratic movement, again see Iran, Iraq and Indonesia, but also any form of heavy handed secular tyranny, that at least retains a resemblance of order and results in far less loss of life, rather than trying to extend faux-democrat all over the show with scant regard for human life or human rights – they are after all only towel heads who impede one’s access to cheap oil, or other mineral resources.

      • Trowbridge H. Ford

        Thanks Chris, improved my outlook considerably.

        Comforting to know there are certain intelligent people who know that our leaders are pushing us all into the abyss.

    • D_Majestic

      A post of very few words, which has far more sense and relevance than anything forthcoming from this blog’s resident ‘Heavy Mob’, THF.

    • Habbabkuk

      “Now the gauntlet has been laid down, cue much cock measuring and posturing in the coming days / weeks:”

      ___________________

      Or, alternatively :

      “Now Mr Goss has laid down the fake news, cue much cock measuring and posturing on this blog in the coming days”

      Craig, new post quickly please, the lunatics are taking over the asylum!

  • Habbabkuk

    Goss

    You’re a literary gent some say (well, you say).

    Have you noticed the Easter-time resurrection of the French literary figure Alain Fournier (post above)?

    Very appropriate for a blog filled with Le Grand Moans, wouldn’t you say?

    • Chris Rogers

      Habbabkuk,

      Why don’t you fuck off over to The Guardian, digest its ‘propaganda’ and fakery, indulge your wildest dreams of launching 500KG missiles at anyone who disagrees with your Librul opinion, Comment on CIF BTL, well that’s if they allow you to comment, and just become brainwashed like the other Libruls and soft-Left types who applaud Trumps resolute actions.

      Alternatively, go over to SST (Sic Semper Tyrannis) read a very large essay by an actual namesake of yours – Habbakkuk – and then try posting your inane comment BTL – you’ll be eaten alive.

      Alternatively, just go and watch Sunday’s Politics Shows, you know the ones more concerned about ‘anti-semitism’ in the Labour Party, rather than Trump starting fucking WWWIII.

      • Habbabkuk

        I don’t intend to fuck off anywhere soon, Chris, if it’s all the same to you.

        You seem particularly affected by my mention, to Mr Goss, of “Le Grand Moans” – I wonder why..?

      • Ball

        Chris,

        Jonathan’s attempting to derail the thread topic after his injection of vitamin D over the past few days. Not enough blood being spilled in the ME for his liking. Maybe the IDF can perk up his spirits over the next few illegal bombing runs.

        ISIS sure do appreciate Israel’s contribution to the cause. Strange Jonathan supports this.

    • D_Majestic

      A pity that the dire BBC hasn’t given us an Eastertide resurrection of ‘Parsifal’ which they broadcast on Good Friday for years on end. Too busy hiding Easter and associated eggs where no-one can find them, probably. Besides dealing us a bit of fake news.

    • Chris Rogers

      Not according to the US Librul’s and most of the MSM he’s not, he’s now a bloody hero, which is strange given they were all calling for his impeachment before he was even inaugurated!

  • John Goss

    Habbabkuk thinks Peter Ford, former ambassador to Syria, is a prat. Well, I am sure you have all read Habbabkuk’s comments (apart from those who skip them), so here is Peter Ford, who does not leave his brains at the door, and readers of this blog can make their own minds up about who is a prat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KU5taO5vRDo

    Incidentally, I wonder if Craig knows Peter Ford. He seems a quite sensible former ambassador just like we once had.

    • Habbabkuk

      I do think he is a prat and in the same post I explained why I thought certain retired ambassadors come off the rails (you’ll find it somewhere on a previous page).

      Ford is a prat compared to me because he is an extremist who has left common sense behind in his effort to get people’s attention.

      • Ball

        Habbabk/Jonathan,
        ————
        Ford is a prat compared to me because he is an extremist who has left common sense behind in his effort to get people’s attention.
        ———–
        The irony.

        A self awareness course would do you wonders.

      • Chris Rogers

        Habbabkuk,

        What a horrible person you are with your insults to those who have served their nation loyally and are prepared to tell the truth to the citizens of the nation they have served, RE: Syria – Obviously, the man knows ‘fuck all’ in your most informed opinion and his comments can be dismissed as the ramblings of an old man seeking 15 minuets of fame.

        Are you Tony Blair by any chance, for such reactionary & politicised views chimes with his opinion of what Ambassadors should do, namely lie their arses off, even to Parliament, no doubt whilst lining their pockets with as much gold as they can stick in them, preferably Gold from dictators and hand choppers.

        No wonder our nation is fucked and little wonder with good Librul’s like yourself we are approaching war with Russia over Syria.

        Talk about bloody madness!

        • Habbabkuk

          If “our nation is fucked”, Rogers, then why are you trying so hard to return and bring your lady wife with you to boot?

          Allegedly, of course.

          • Chris Rogers

            Habbabkuk,

            As I happen to have a 9 year old daughter, who so happen’s to be a Welsh citizen of the UK, I have a moral duty to try and ensure she actually has both a Country (Wales) and a World to grow-up in.

            As for your other BS, and taking a leaf out of George Galloway’s book, if you desire to slander me with you bollocks I’m most happy to have my day in Court – would you please like to supply your name and contact details in order to expedite on this matter?

          • Habbabkuk

            Rogers

            Still the UK though, isn’t it – a country that’s “fucked” according to you.

            Is it your “moral duty” vis à vis your daughter to bring her to a “fucked” country?

            Would it not be your moral duty to take her to a country which you do not consider to be “ducked” while she is still young enough to put down roots?

            Now let me try and remember for which countries you have expressed considerable admiration ……. 🙂

  • mauisurfer

    re: chemical warfare in syria – must read
    includes cooperation between Parton Downs, Gerasimov, Dempsey and secret Israeli expert in preventing Obama’s attack on Syria in 2013 after Ghouta false flag

    SENTENCE FIRST – VERDICT AFTERWARDS’? by David Habbakkuk

    (OR – ‘EXECUTION FIRST – EVIDENCE AFTERWARDS’?)

    REVISITING THE STORY OF THE ‘FALSE FLAG’ AT GHOUTA ON 21 AUGUST 2013, HOW IT WAS EXPOSED, AND HOW IT WAS CREATED.

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/04/sentence-first-verdict-afterwards.html#tpe-action-posted-6a00d8341c72e153ef01b7c8eb7a65970b

    • Republicofscotland

      Thank you Mauisurfer, for that, I love the name its deliciously ironic. ?

  • Habbabkuk

    Hre “Sic semper tyrannis”

    This website is the sort of website which one would suspect Chris Rogers being especially devoted to.

    Firstly, as so many other dubious websites, it appears to keep very quiet about its boss-man and contributors and a frank and up-front frank mission statement is entirely lacking. We are told the boss-man’s a former army officer (presumably US) and that’s about it. Compare and contrast with the info Craig offers the public.

    Secondly, there appear to be no dissenters – everyone, but everyone, is on the same line. I suspect that, contrary to Rogers’ claims, posters like me would not be allowed on the site. Never to be contradicted – unlike on CM – list be very comforting to people of the Chris Rogers tendency.

    ***********************

    By the way, I find no one posting there under the name of “Chris Rogers”. Surely Chris doesn’t use a different alias for every blog he frequents?

    • Republicofscotland

      Go on Habb, you tell them, I’d imagine those sites don’t meet the lofty standards of the website you recommended awhile back.

      You know the one, Stopfake, which had no comments and in reality was probably a, e-mail address collection site – but for whom I wonder. ?

      • Habbabkuk

        Mr Goss’s website has no comments either. What conclusions would you draw from that, I wonder?

        • Republicofscotland

          Touche! ?

          Maybe Mr Goss is a FSB agent. Says I tongue firmly pressed into my cheek.

          • Resident Dissident

            The KGB are not that daft – they will have approached him when he was in Moscow and rejected him as being of no use whatsoever.

    • Chris Rogers

      Habbabkuk,

      You must have a photographic memory and be a speed reader of an extreme kind to visit a ‘reputable’ website that posts on military and geopolitical issues, among them Syria and the ME, and yet, then castigate the Committee, whom you incorrectly state no details actually exist on, or is limited in nature.

      Of course, had you actually bothered to read the Blog, rather than visit and try and find posts from me, no doubt to slander me with.

      Now, not claiming to be a military expert by the fact one has never served as a regular in HM Forces, I’m reliant on opinion from those who have particularly if they have seen active duty in war zones and been active in the intelligence community.

      Further, the Blog host is but one of a ‘notable Committee’ that posts opinion, opinion visitors are freely able to comment on BTL, of course idiots get ‘slapped down’ as the site does not suffer fools gladly – I suggest you re-visit, open your ignorant mouth with some inane comment, and await your punishment – suffice to say contradictory comment exists, you just did not look for it in your haste to find posts by me, of which there are only a few.

      Again, unlike you I don’t fucking hid behind a daft ‘user name’, so my own humble social media comments are available on Face Book, Twitter, The Independent, The Guardian (RebeccaRiots) and many other places, indeed, an ugly mugshot is also available of me as I don’t cower in a bunker afraid I’ll get kicked in for my opinions like you.

      I’ll leave it there, but find it amusing that your expertise is such that any actual expertise offered by actual experts is rubbished – see your own comments on Ambassador Peter Ford, a ‘PRAT’ in your esteemed opinion.

      The only PRAT is you!

      • Habbabkuk

        Could you post a link to that page of the website which gives the details of the mysterious “notable Committee”?

        • Chris Rogers

          Habbabkuk,

          As ever, in your desire to ‘dish the dirt ASAP’ you ignore and overlook much, whilst contributing little.

          Please explain why you are too bone idle to actually delve into issues and actually ‘review’ in-depth, basically expecting all contributors to these boards to supply Links in abundance, the information contained therein to be instantly rubbished and denigrated by you. Again, it takes time and effort to read and digest, so either you are ‘time-strapped’ or just a wind-up merchant of the worst order – most already know this answer to this!

      • Sharp Ears

        Reference the aforementioned Niall Ferguson.

        ‘On (Not) Facing Britain’s Imperial Past at Tate Britain
        16/01/2016
        In a country where public discourse concerning the actions and legacy of the British Empire is principally shaped by the likes of Dan Snow, Jeremy Paxman and Niall Ferguson, any cultural event that seeks to critically assess Britain’s imperial history is not only welcome, but in fact crucially needed. So, after I saw the sub-heading of Tate Britain’s latest major exhibition ‘Artist & Empire: Facing Britain’s Imperial Past’, I was intrigued and cautiously optimistic that it might be the start of a move away from the wishy-washy apologia of Snow, Paxman’s nostalgic glorification and Ferguson’s transparent adoration of imperial power towards something more honest and critical. My hopes in this regard were raised further by a glance at the selection of books for sale in the exhibition shop on the day that I visited, for, although the ubiquitous histories of the British Empire by Paxman and Ferguson were unfortunately there, so were C.L.R. James’ crucial studies A History of Pan-African Revolt and Black Jacobins, Edward Said’s Culture & Imperialism (although strangely not his classic work, Orientalism – more on that later), Richard Gott’s Britain’s Empire: Resistance, Repression and Revolt and Franz Fanon’s seminal works Black Skin, White Masks and The Wretched of the Earth. The limited edition ‘Empire’ India Pale Ale that I also spotted for sale seemed distasteful, but I hoped it was not a sign of things to come.

        /..
        https://louisallday.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/on-not-facing-britains-imperial-past-at-tate-britain/

        Hope that helps!

  • Alcyone

    So why is it always an Islamic jihadi, why not an Hindu, Buddhist or Sikh?

    OPINION | NIALL FERGUSON
    What comes before jihad?
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/03/27/what-comes-before-jihad/WoSLmhqXIIjvHURZsgns8H/story.html

    “Let’s not be parochial. The world is in the grip of an epidemic of Islamist terror. Of the last 16 years, the worst year was 2014, with 93 countries experiencing attacks and close to 33,000 people killed. The second worst was 2015, with over 29,000 victims. In that year, four radical Islamic groups were responsible for three quarters of all deaths from terrorism: Islamic State, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and Al Qaeda.

    British police reveal more details of Parliament attacker
    Khalid Masood, who attacked Britain’s Parliament, killing four people and wounding some 50, was born Adrian Russell Ajao, London’s top counterterror officer said Friday.

    In London attack inquiry, police make ‘significant’ arrests
    Although Muslim-majority countries suffer the most from jihadist violence, the West is increasingly under attack. There were 64 ISIS-affiliated attacks in Western countries in 2015, including the massacres in Paris (137 dead) and Orlando (50 dead). Thus far, Britain has got off lightly.

    No doubt there will whining about security lapses in the Masood case. But the reality is that only the constant vigilance of the UK security services has stopped many more people from being killed in the past dozen years. In 2014 and 2015, there were more terrorism-related arrests than in any year since 2000. What we must face is that even this intensified effort cannot pre-empt every jihadist.

    The term “lone wolf” is a misleading one. No one becomes a jihadist all by himself, just by watching beheading videos. As my wife Ayaan Hirsi Ali argues in a powerful new report, jihad is always preceded by dawa — the process of non-violent but toxic radicalization that transforms the petty criminal into a zealot.

    The network of dawa takes many different forms. In the UK a key role was played by the organization Al Muhajiroun (The Emigrants), to which Anjem Choudary belonged before his arrest. But there are many less visible organizations busily spreading the mind-poison.”

    • Ball

      Alcyone,
      —————
      “Let’s not be parochial. The world is in the grip of an epidemic of Islamist terror. Of the last 16 years, the worst year was 2014, with 93 countries experiencing attacks and close to 33,000 people killed. The second worst was 2015, with over 29,000 victims. In that year, four radical Islamic groups were responsible for three quarters of all deaths from terrorism: Islamic State, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and Al Qaeda
      —————
      Over 95% of their victims being actual Muslims.

      What bollox you fill your head with. You must spend every day flipping from extremely angry (at how your life has turned out) to extremely afraid (of going outside and bumping into someone with a different skin colour).

      Sad and pathetic.

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