How It Starts 996

The brevity of this post is out of proportion to the enormous importance of the subject. But I want to let you know I am thinking and working on it.

It is a recognised pattern for dictatorship to commence with emergency measures designed to combat a threat. Those emergency measures then become normalised and people exercising arbitrary power find it addictive. A new threat is then found to justify the continuation

It is by no means clear to me that it is a rational response to covid-19 to tear up all of the civil liberties which were won by the people against authority through centuries of struggle, and for which people died. To say that is not to minimise the threat of covid-19. It is also worth pointing out that a coronavirus pandemic was a widely foreseen eventuality. People keep sending me links to various TV shows or movies based on a coronavirus pandemic, generally claiming this proves it is a man-made event. No, that just proves it is a widely foreseen event. Which it is.

The lack of contingency preparedness is completely indefensible. It is partly a result of the stupidity of Tory austerity that has the NHS permanently operating at 100% capacity with no contingency, and partly the result of the crazed just-in time thinking that permeates management in all spheres and eliminates the holding of stock.

It is incredible to me that the UK is willing to throw away some £220 billion and rising on Trident against a war scenario nobody can sensibly define, but was not willing to spend a few million on holding stock of protective clothing for the NHS against the much more likely contingency of a pandemic. What does that say about our society?

Anyway, we are where we are. Nobody knows how deadly this virus is. There have not been, anywhere, sufficient reliable large general population samples to know what percentage of people who get the virus will die. We just do not know how many people in the UK have had it and not got seriously ill. My suspicion is that in a couple of years time it will be discovered the mortality rate was under 1%. But I do not know, and I do not blame the government for making worst assumptions in the absence of reliable scientific evidence. Personally, I am obeying lockdown and would advise others to do so too until the situation is clearer. But I do not want to see the police harassing people for going on a long walk or posting a letter. It really is a problem to have police empowered to stop and question a citizen for just walking in the street. It is also a problem that Peter Hitchens is being reviled for saying, in essence, little more than that. When you can’t criticise restrictions on liberty, you know society has entered a very dark phase indeed.

I would feel much more comfortable if they were open about what they do not know. All the excuses for not testing people rather than admit they did not have the tests rather rattles trust. The ability of the rich and well-connected to access tests also rattles trust.

But none of this justifies rule by fiat – if Parliament cannot sit, I personally believe it would benefit the nations of the UK to have no new laws for a while. There are too many laws already. It does not justify banning political gathering. I don’t recommend anyone to gather, and I don’t imagine they would gather, but the evil of banning political activity is much more serious than the danger of four lonely people in Solihull getting together to talk about coronavirus restrictions.

It certainly does not justify banning jury trials, which the Scottish government has just dropped from today’s Bill after a revolt led by Joanna Cherry. The bill still weakens the defence in trials by allowing pre-taped video evidence and dispensing with the right to cross-examine. If the accusers had been allowed to get away with their lies in the Alex Salmond trial without cross-examination, the result might have been very different. For God’s sake, if you cannot do justice, suspend it. Do not dispense rough justice.

This article is entirely free to reproduce and publish, including in translation, and I very much hope people will do so actively. Truth shall set us free.


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996 thoughts on “How It Starts

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  • Rani Sharma

    Forgot to tell you that Naomi Wolf has written a great deal about how the clampdown starts, the road to tyrrany / dictatorship. It always follows the same template. Also videos of her talking about this and the clampdown on journalists.

  • Clark

    Hey Pb, just to make this hoax look really convincing, they’re about to kill or disappear Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister. YCNMIU, eh?

    • SA

      I am surprised that Pb has not been banned. He is either a troll or an agent provocateur. It shows how tolerant the moderators are at this constant twisting of facts.

      • Pb

        The moderators seem happy with facts but they do get a bit sensitive when some making comments, when failing to win an argument with facts resort to playing the man, ad hominem and abuse

        I have no objection to your objectionable emotion laden comments remaining as they serve to show the calibre of the “genuine science” denying community on here.

        And whilst you stew in that one; is it your sainted “reliable” scientists that have created this current situation?

        Is the virus only having an aggressive effect on those that had the flu jab this season?

        Boris had the jab

        Those that had the jab told to stay at home for 12 weeks

        Had the link been made but they kept that secret?

        “Examining non-influenza viruses specifically, the odds of both coronavirus and human metapneumovirus in vaccinated individuals were significantly higher when compared to unvaccinated individuals”

        “Additionally, the laboratory data in our study showed increased odds of coronavirus and human metapneumovirus in individuals receiving influenza vaccination.”

        That should feed your supercilious indignance for a while

        • SA

          OK. I will answer your challenge, but please address my answer. The references you have provided do not really prove a link between the risk of getting Covid-19 and the influenza vaccine. Here is why
          The first reference is that of a twitter account showing that Boris Johnson had the flu jab. So what can we infer? Boris Johnson got the flu jab and later Covid-19. So far this is an anecdote, not really worth contemplating. If I have red hair and get covid -19 it does not link the two.
          The second reference from the Mirror reads as follows:

          “Britons who get the annual winter flu jab fall into the government’s “high risk” category and should self-isolate, a top medic warns. Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, told BBC Breakfast this morning: “I don’t want to go into enormous detail into every single risk group but we are saying it is the people who are offered flu vaccines, other than children, who fit into that risk category, people for whom the advice is very strong about social distancing.”

          What does this mean? It means that the Deputy Chief Medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam wanted to highlight the risk group which has been established which coincides with that of the risk group, apart from children, that are at risk from flu and this is a way of conveying information to people in a manner they can relate to. There is nothing here that means that these people are at more risk of Covid-19 because they had the vaccine, it is just a coincidence of the two groups.
          So your third reference, and I congratulate you for your diligence, is from a scientific paper. But the conclusion from the paper is:

          “Examining non-influenza viruses specifically, the odds of both coronavirus and human metapneumovirus in vaccinated individuals were significantly higher when compared to unvaccinated individuals”
          “Additionally, the laboratory data in our study showed increased odds of coronavirus and human metapneumovirus in individuals receiving influenza vaccination.”

          And you triumphantly then declare that you have found the smoking gun. But let us reflect on what this says: The full conclusions, which you do not quote, are:

          Receipt of influenza vaccination was not associated with virus interference among our population. Examining virus interference by specific respiratory viruses showed mixed results. Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus; however, significant protection with vaccination was associated not only with most influenza viruses, but also parainfluenza, RSV, and non-influenza virus coinfections.”

          So overall there was no increase in respiratory virus infections in the population studied, but when you break these down you find that there was a significant increase in those with Corona viruses but not with others, including Influenza viruses.
          So what is the message here? If you are vaccinated with flu vaccine you are well protected from flu viruses but not from corona viruses. So if you are not vaccinated you will get flu and if you are in the susceptible group you might well die of pneumonia. If however you are vaccinated you may be more susceptible to get corona virus (and in 2017-2018 this meant getting the common cold which does not kill).
          Note the purpose of this study was to decide whether vaccination benefit exaggerates the benefit of the vaccine not to highlight the danger of the vaccine. Now unfortunately you really cannot extrapolate from common cold corona viruses of 2017-2018 to Covid-19 unless you repeat this study. You are making assumptions not based on observations of actual happenings. Maybe who knows, it may also be true of Covid-19 but the message is not to abandon vaccinations or that vaccinations are harmful. This could only lead to more deaths both with Covid-19 and influenza.

          • Clark

            SA, thanks for breaking down Pb’s claim, which saved me from having to do it. Conspiracy theorists waste so much of other people’s time.

  • ricardo2000

    Arguing about death rates annoys me. That it might only be 1% instead of 5% is beside the point. This was a catastrophe foretold in 1990s great policy books, The Coming Plague, and, Betrayal of Trust by Laurie Garrett. These deaths, however few, are the predictable result of greed, arrogance and stupidity.
    This plague illustrates a basic fallacy of ‘free enterprise economics’: people don’t behave as if their own best interests are the only thing that counts. Health pros behave out of love and responsibility toward the community. People that consider only their own interests are invariably sociopaths and brutally stupid liars like Johnson, Bolsanaro, Modi, and Trump.
    CONservatives everywhere love public institutions when it serves their class. So CONservatives love the poor when they need them to fight their wars, or eat their garbage. CONservatives love the NHS now because they need it to survive, and to make bleeding heaps of money selling necessary equipment and medicines. For CONservatives ‘love’ is a transaction, and they are rich arrogant ‘Johns’ pimping out society.

  • Clark

    So Pb, please, just to make your position clear…

    It would appear that you’re alleging a vast conspiracy, of every government in the world and hundreds of local authorities, along with virtually the entire virology, epidemiology and genetics communities, and every national scientific body, medical authority and university in the world. Is that right?

    All these scientists, thousands of them, prepared this diabolical plan, presumably starting months in advance, conspiring with all the world’s governments, in a doomed bid to rob the entire global population of whatever civil liberties they have, incidentally also destroying the worlds’ entire economy which hitherto, governments had always prioritised even over the welfare of their own citizens. Local weekly newspapers such as L’Eco di Bergamo were taken over so that they could dedicate 23 pages to obituaries, and all the local population bribed (or possibly killed I suppose) to make it look convincing.

    Is that right?

    Is there any precedent for such a conspiracy? What was the trigger for governments to start behaving so out of character? Will the majority of the hundreds of thousands of perpetrators be killed to stop them leaking, or are all such scientists and local officials simply evil?

    By Occam’s Razor, I think it’s more likely that you’re either deluded, or possibly deliberately trying to maximise the death toll. But that’s just my personal opinion 🙂

  • Ken Kenn

    Naive non sciencey question here after reading the discussion.

    If this is just a few thousand over the normal death rate ( say in Europe ) is it ‘normal for 19 old people to die in One care Home in the space of a week?

    Forget what they died of – is it normal?

    If not – why not?

    Thank you

    • Clark

      Excess deaths are showing up in one place after another. In places where the spread is most advanced, the death rate has tripled or quadrupled:

      A pandemic takes time to spread. Pb and the like are effectively taking advantage of the inevitable lag in death rates to spread lethal disinformation.

      If by some unbelievable quirk of fate they turn out to be right, it will become undeniably obvious within two months, at which point this supposed world domination plan will backfire rather spectacularly.

      Ambulance Sirens and Death Bells: Agony in Italy’s Disaster Zone
      CASTELBUONO, Sicily (CN) – “I can’t look at all the deaths in the newspapers. I can’t do it,” he tells me in a weakened voice over the telephone from his home in Gazzaniga, a small town in the Val Seriana near Bergamo and now at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.
      The sound of sirens and church bells tolling for the dead: For weeks, that’s what the inhabitants of the Val Seriana and towns in the expanses of the Po River flats have been tormented by.
      “In my town, there are eight or nine deaths each day,” he tells me. I can’t believe my ears. I ask him again to make sure I heard correctly.
      “Yes, eight or nine people die each day,” he says. “When someone dies, the person is immediately put into a coffin and taken to the cemetery. There is a long line of coffins waiting to be cremated.”
      …Official data shows the virus has killed 1,267 people in Bergamo, the most of any Italian province, and infected 6,728 people. But these numbers are only a shadow of the real toll, local officials and residents say. In a way, they can be seen as a lonely tombstone atop a mass grave.
      A local newspaper, L’Eco di Bergamo, reported recently that numerous town mayors say official death tolls are inaccurate.
      “In our case, the official records say coronavirus has caused nine deaths,” Cristian Vezzoli, the mayor of Seriate, told the newspaper. “But since the beginning of the month our official records show about 60 deaths.”
      Other town mayors in the 14 miles between Seriate and Gazzaniga say the same. In Alzano Lombardo, about 62 people have died since Feb. 23, compared to nine last year in the same period. In Nembro, about 115 people have died this month compared to 14 last year in a comparable period.
      “If you talk with the mayors and priests, they will tell you the number of deaths are five or 10 times as many as officially reported,” Ruggeri says. “If you take the local newspaper, L’Eco di Bergamo, a year ago, there were two pages of obituaries. Recently, there were 23 pages of obituaries
      “People are dying here who until yesterday were doing great, they didn’t have any problems,” he says. “They are dying for no particular reason except Covid. This is more than an influenza. We can’t pretend otherwise, close our eyes.”

    • Tiger Lilly

      I read ages ago that average lifespan of an elderly person put in care is one year. Whether because they are not put in care until they are on their last legs, whether its because humans are not happy living like that or whether its an average figure based on all care homes including really terrible ones servibg up the cheapest food possible, I don’t know. My gran was in a care home (very high standard one funded from sale of all her assets and ins policy taken out) and died within a year (series of strokes). She wasn’t happy living like that. I wouldn’t be either. I would rather be free than safe. This also applies to current Covid-19 situation.

    • Watt

      He does seem to suffer from incontinent bullshit.

      Anyway, if it looks too good to be true…….

      However, my bet’s on his plucky survival. Elevated to heroic statesman. Fought the plague off, although obviously not down the beach at his second home!


    • michael norton

      Jack they are saying he was almost seventeen stone all up weight but since he moved in with his bird he has lost some weight.
      They also say that fat people are at greater risk of becoming more ill, if they catch it, because as you lie in your hospital bed, it is harder to breath if you are fat.
      Fat people have a greater chance of dying during any operation, especially long operations or being on a breathing machine.

    • michael norton

      Doctors are reporting that a high number of COVID-19 patients who develop complications are overweight or obese!
      Last week, Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch intensive care association, told TV reporters in the Netherlands that 66 percent to 80 percent of COVID-19 patients in intensive care wards that he had seen were overweight.

      On the same TV news programme, Peter van der Voort, of Groningen University’s teaching hospital, said of the higher numbers of overweight COVID-19 patients in ICU beds: “We don’t know why, but it is very noticeable.”

      Boris Johnson is obese

      • Marmite

        Theresa May tweeting here:

        ‘My thoughts and prayers are with @BorisJohnson and his family as he continues to receive treatment in hospital. This horrific virus does not discriminate.’

        Maybe I am misreading this, but it sounds almost as if she would like the virus to ‘discriminate’. She seems to be surprised that it should attack anyone other than the poor and vulnerable!

        What a cliched expression, offensive if not just meaningless.

    • Tiger Lilly

      The problem with the Boris Johnson situation is that he is a proven liar who has a record of hiding when under stress. If he really is ill he deserves sympathy, but we need some hard evidence of this first. Confirmation by medical staff at St Thomas’s that he really is there would do, with a film showing him sitting up in bed (taken at a safe distance). It would not be breaking patient confidentiality provided he agreed to this – and why wouldn’t he do so? But in the absence of hard evidence that he is ill and in hospital, questions about whether he is there because of a flu jab (did anyone actually see him get the injection?) Or has an underlying health issue, are irrelevant.

  • SA

    The main conspiracy that really should be exposed because it is there in front of our eyes is the fact that HMG has decided to take the herd immunity approach from the start and avoid expensive preparation and protective measures. From the outset we were reassured that we have the best healthcare in the world and that the NHS was well prepared. But when it came to the epidemic reaching these shores we did not even have PPE for front line staff, let alone ventilators. There were no national disaster contingency plans with panic buying leading to shortages. There are still inadequate supply lines for food and unless all external movements, even exercise are prohibited, there is a lot of scope for the virus to disseminate. A curfew and proper quarantine and contact tracing early on would have shortened the agony. These half-hearted measures are only a cover for either incompetence, ignorance, or more worrying, the conspiracy to let the infection rip through so we can develop herd immunity.
    Here is a good analysis of all the government’s coverups and failures in Declassified UK which also has other articles pertaining to Covid-19.

    • Pb

      That’s an impressive Fact Sifting Algorithm that you have got your hands on, you consistently come up with Bullshit

      But in some of this you are correct, the algorithm must be playing up, perhaps a virus’;

      Epidemics and Pandemics are normal, they occur regularly, we know they happen.

      Governments’ job is to prepare for them so a contingency level is planned for and readied in the NHS; staff levels, drugs and equipment including PPE and ventilators. There should be sufficient to cope with the inevitable viral infections that show up from time to time.

      The NHS did not have the correct plans, contingencies, resource levels or competent management to cope with a small annual peak seen in January of this year. If it couldn’t cope with an annual event then there was no way that an epidemic or pandemic could be tackled properly.

      Government is responsible for that. We are responsible for putting competent Governments in place.

      • Pb

        Having said that, it is probably a good job that the NHS hasn’t seen the number of Covid-19 numbers that the goverment has reported

        These figures are in line with the government’s false reporting of Notifiable Diseases (with ref to Covid-19)

        And the number of deaths that are due to Covid-19.

        The government has lied about the number of cases, the number of deaths and the impact on the NHS, on top of that the government has failed to do any meaningful testing

        • Pb

          “To date[3 April], ICNARC have been notified of 2621 admissions to critical care units in England, Wales and Northern Ireland with confirmed COVID-19 either at or after admission to critical care. Of these, early data covering the first 24 hours in the critical care unit have been submitted to ICNARC for 2384 admissions of 2249 patients (Figure 1). Of the 2249 patients, 346 patients have died, 344 patients were discharged alive from critical care and 1559 patients were last reported as still being in critical care (Figure 2). The largest number of patients (949) are being managed by the three London Operational Delivery Networks (Figure 3). Note that Figure 1 and Figure 2 are affected by a variable lag time in submission of data of about 1-3 days (shaded grey).”

          This makes shocking reading, not because of the severity of the illness but because of the level of government deception

          • Pb

            There are 286 Critical Care Units in the UK

            Up to 3 April (noon) 53 had not seen any Covid-19 patients

            To the 3 April 346 people have died in Critical Care Units in the UK

            To the 3 April the government reported 3,605 Deaths due to Covid-19 in the UK

        • SA

          So the government has lied about 4 Doctors dying of Covid-19 and two nurses? Is that a normal occurrence? Is it a normal occurrence that several hospitals have declared that they have saturated their capacity for critical care patients? Is it normal that 10% of hospital staff are off sick? I have not referenced these because I am sure you are aware of what I am saying. Are you willfully denying facts on the ground, in favour of statistics, that, as Clark pointed out’ often take time to collect and publish. Do you think that this website is a hoax?

          Do you understand what exponential growth means.
          Now I have treated you as if you are arguing genuinely. If you wish to engage genuinely then I will continue to answer you. But please no selective cherry picking of information that is irrelevant, no diversions and no rubbishing of official government and international data. I am sure you do not know more than all of these combined organisations, neither do I, but if we have to question everything the way you do, we might as well resort to blaming shape shifting lizards for all our ills.

      • SA

        “That’s an impressive Fact Sifting Algorithm that you have got your hands on, you consistently come up with Bullshit”
        I thought you were not one to play the man, play the ball please. How is it fact shifting, which bit? Please discuss in a rational manner.
        !The NHS did not have the correct plans, contingencies, resource levels or competent management to cope with a small annual peak seen in January of this year. If it couldn’t cope with an annual event then there was no way that an epidemic or pandemic could be tackled properly.
        But that is exactly what I have said but you labelled it bullshit. The government stated in January that we are well prepared for the pandemic but in fact were not. Have you read the link?

        • Pb

          “But that is exactly what I have said but you labelled it bullshit”

          No I didn’t. I said;

          “But in some of this you are correct”

          You “Please discuss in a rational manner.”

          You “I am surprised that Pb has not been banned. He is either a troll or an agent provocateur. It shows how tolerant the moderators are at this constant twisting of facts.”

          Me: SA you are an argumentative hysteric that has been taken in by the government’s propaganda. When you can’t win an argument you fall back on abuse, ad hominem and misrepresent the facts.

          I don’t want to discuss this further with you because you are incapable of doing so rationally.

          Mods if SA or Clarke are abusive to me again please remove their posts or allow me an equally abusive reply

          • SA

            I have been unrelenting in my criticism of the government’s approach. Have you now resorted to twisting facts? I have been relying on science. I have courteously and in detail answered one of your posts, to which you did not reply. Previously I asked you how would data from 20th of march reflect the rising death rate when there was no considerable rise in death rate at that time. But you never answered.
            I have to say I regret my post which so offended you, my apologies. But it is not me who is swallowing the government’s lies, it is you in belittling the effects of this virus. The government was unprepared, their scientific advisors in my view were leant upon and other common sense measures and advice from WHO ignored. Two months were wasted in arguments not dissimilar to what you are making. They also ignored examples of China and South Korea willfully and I am afraid so do you. So please, no false accusations.

  • michael norton

    The pneumococcal vaccine protects against serious and potentially fatal pneumococcal infections.

    Nowhere I have seen anyone suggest this is of any benefit to Covid-19 victims.

    I understand it is some protection against bacterial pneumonia.
    It is thought if you have covid-19 you might go on to contract viral pneumonia.

    However viral pneumonia can change in to bacterial pneumonia.

    • SA

      Pneumococcal pneumonia causes a specific type of pneumonia, lobar pneumonia. Most pneumonias that are secondary to viral infections cause bronchopneumonia. The clinical picture with rigid lungs full of fluid in severe cases of Covid-19 is also different and is not infective. It is called Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and is thought to be in part due to a hyperreactive response by the host and occur at least one week after the initial infection when the viral load is low.

  • michael norton

    If you have covid-19 and you go on to develop one or more type of pneumonia,
    you would normally be carted off to hospital.
    I am not sure if that would automatically lead on,
    to you being put on a ventilator.

    I assume if you are a new case for a ventilator that you are still awake.

    Are later cases put into a coma?

    • SA

      As I indicated above, you don’t necessarily need to develop ‘pneumonia’, which is a different clinical and pathological feature to ARDS, you just can’t get enough oxygen into the system and gasp for breath.
      The reasons why someone needs a ventilator are that you can force more oxygen into the system through a ventilator. This is assessed by measuring the amount of oxygen and carbon dioxide in the blood and if you reach certain figures you will need assisted respiration. Because this process is uncomfortable and is resisted, induced coma is needed in severe cases.
      Also there are certain less severe measures you can take initially to increase the oxygen, by giving oxygen through nasal prongs or through a mask but if these are not sufficient then a ventilator will be needed.

      • michael norton

        it has been said that the pregnant girlfriend of Boris Johnson is suffering from Covid-19.
        It has been said that her and Boris have been apart for a fortnight or so.
        It has been said ( yesterday) that Boris was taken in to Hospital after having a high temp. for much more than a week.
        It has been suggested this is routine.

        It does not seem in the character of Boris to be taken in to hospital for routine, he is a control freak.
        I am assuming he has low Oxygen levels and or difficulty breathing.
        This is not routine, by anyone’s idea.

          • michael norton

            why do you think the BBC are reporting Boris has coronavirus
            and not covid-19

            Are people who have different coronavirus conditions being lumped in with covid-19 victims?

  • Nick

    To be fair Clark node is right in one respect
    Until final infection figures are processed the mortality rate is no better than a guessing game.
    South korea is the only place where the data is starting to represent the whole picture.
    Until the virus passes and there is wholesale antibody testing…we cannot work out what percentage of the population was infected. That is the key figure. And even that is in doubt as i have previously pointed out that there has been deaths in Ayrshire in the under 60s that are being recorded as covid19 with no test or post mortem recorded. One case in Irvine has seem the family of the victim up in arms over this.
    I don’t doubt the contagiousness of this virus Clark,but not much out there is trustwortyvnews in either camp.

  • Jack

    Not looking good for Boris,
    “Over the course of this afternoon, the condition of the Prime Minister has worsened and, on the advice of his medical team, he has been moved to the Intensive Care Unit at the hospital,” the spokesman said.

  • Anthony Davies

    If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.
    The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political/ economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State

  • ThereisaGod

    “There is no safety for good men other than to believe in all possible evil of evil men”, Edmund Burke
    (a quote from a bygone age when men in public life were possessed of a now unfamiliar wisdom).

    WTF’s wrong with you … giving these people the benefit of the doubt time and time again. 9/11? This stuff? The political class are committed to trusting the persons who deliver them their directives from above. We. too, are sunk by our trust in the obedience monkeys were put into parliament. The people at the top whose activities are never inspected and it is these people who direct the actions of governments across the world. These people are wicked beyond belief.
    This whole thing is a fraud directed by the people Russian professors call [when teaching their FSB (KGB) students] the “Conceptual Power”. COVID-19 is all about a global financial reset and getting all humanity to sign up to an agenda that we will recognise (sooner or later) as enslavement.
    Here is someone who knows what is coming:

    Aeschylus said 2,500 years ago “No man can be made to know what he doesn’t want to know, save by pain.”

    It’s going to hurt CM.

  • Pb

    The government appear to be publishing the numbers of incidents that a Covid-19 causing pathogen has been identified and calling it the number Infections due to Covid-19 cases

    Whereas the number of Infections reported to Public Health England are just a few hundred yet the number of Causative Agents is 10’s of thousands

  • Pb

    Today’s figures from the ONS say there were 647 deaths due to Covid-19 to 27th March

    Total deaths registered to the end of week 13 (27 March 2020) in England and Wales: 150,057

    Total deaths registered for the previous 5 years averaged: 153,868

    Including deaths due to Covid-19 there have been 3,811 fewer deaths in England and Wales in the first 13 weeks of the year when compared with the average over the previous 5 years

    • Pb

      There were more than 14,500 more deaths registered in England and Wales in 2018 in the first 13 weeks than there have been in 2020 for the same period.

      We need 14,500 more deaths to bring us up to 2018’s figures

      In 2018 they had another spike about to start at this time, just as we are starting to have one now.

      They didn’t shut us down in 2018

      • SA

        Have you looked at the figures for 2019 which was actually a good year? Why compare with 2018 which was probably a bad year? Selective use of data is somewhat misleading. Why are you trying to convince yourself and others that we are being duped?

    • SA

      I am not being funny. I admire your concern and your pursuit of the truth by following the mortality data. This is of course the ultimate test. But there are some factors to consider. Of course there is an average death rate of 1,500 and 2,000 daily in the UK according to these statistics. We know that more people die in the winter of respiratory tract infection and that this places pressure on the NHS every year. This usually eases of and by this time of the year the mortality rate drops by the end of March. In fact in the xls spreadsheet you can see that compared with the average for the last 5 years the figures for deaths are beginning to rise. To take the four weeks in march these are the figures:
      week 10 11 12 13

      2020 10,895 11,019 10,645 11,141

      Average last 5 years 11,498 11,205 10,573 10,130

      So already you can see a rise. Of course because the current number of daily deaths from Covid 19 is relatively small in comparison with the normal daily average , we will not see a major change until the daily death rates reflect this. I think this is already showing and we will see this reflected in the coming few weeks.

      The problem is that we are facing a dynamic situation and if we look at this sort of data we are always doing catchup. These are the conclusions from the government website:
      “Main points from latest release
      The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average.
      A total of 150,047 deaths were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 27 March 2020 (year to date), and of these, 647 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (0.4%); including deaths that occurred up to 27 March but were registered up to 1 April, the number involving COVID-19 was 1,639.
      For deaths that occurred up to 27 March, there were 1,568 deaths in England registered by 1 April involving COVID-19 compared with 1,649 deaths reported by NHS England for the same period in a newly published dataset.
      Of the deaths registered in Week 13, 539 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 4.8% of all deaths; this compared with 103 (1.0% of all deaths) in Week 12.
      This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.
      Of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 13, 92.9% (501 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.
      Please note, where Easter falls in previous years will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison.”

      • Pb

        Where is your evidence for

        “This usually eases of and by this time of the year the mortality rate drops by the end of March.”

        For the past 5 years the mortality rate always rises from the end of March (week 13) to about week 18

        The evidence demonstrates the opposite of what you are saying.

        • SA

          This is taken from the actual figures of 2019 when after from may the weekly rate consistently drops below 10,000 and then starts to rise again in October. Also you can see a divergence in 2020 figures for march, whereas the 5 yearly figures are beginning to drop the 2020 is trending upwards. The next few weeks could tell us whether this trend continues.

          • Pb

            That is simply untrue, the chart I posted above prove your statement to be false and because you repeated it I assume it is deliberately false.

          • SA

            1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
            04-Jan-19 11-Jan-19 18-Jan-19 25-Jan-19 01-Feb-19 08-Feb-19 15-Feb-19 22-Feb-19

            10,955 12,609 11,860 11,740 11,297 11,660 11,824 11,295 11,044
            12,273 13,670 13,056 12,486 11,998 11,623 11,301 11,383 11,051

            8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

            11,295 11,044 10,898 10,567 10,402 9,867 10,126 10,291 9,025
            11,383 11,051 11,286 11,095 10,456 10,076 10,268 10,362 10,291

            These are the actual figures for 2019 for the first 16 weeks, upper figures are 2019, lower figures are average for last 5 years. All the figures for the first 16 weeks are lower than those of the last 5 years.
            Now I realise that you have been referring to some non-authorised website and not the Gov website for your data and I was relying on official data. Since I have no means of checking what you sent me, I cannot comment. But if you continue to use abusive terms then there is no need for me to answer you as your intentions are to bluster and deceive. Why are you suddenly so active on this website? Can you tell me more about the website you referred to with this data?

      • Pb

        “This is slightly lower than the figures reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for Week 13 (739) as it takes time for deaths to be reported and included in Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.”

        Again this is the opposite of the truth, the government publish the daily figures daily, today’s figures from the ONS are from 10 days ago.

        Up to and including the 27th March the government were saying 759 people had died from C-19 that was published on the 27th March.

        The ONS 10 days later say 647 people died.

        • Pb

          The government are still publishing figures of people that are dying that have tested +ve for C-19 or suspected of having C-1p and saying that is what killed them. that is not true

          i.e if C-19 is suspected to be present the death is reported as a C-19 death. That is because C-19 is a Notifiable Disease and must go on the Death Certificate. The person may not have the infection they may have flu but because they were not tested and they died they were recorded as a C-19 death

          C-19 is being reported as responsible for deaths where the patient was expected to die anyway. People with heart disease, cancer, dementia are all going to die this week, their outcomes may not be affected if they become infected with C-19. Death happens, its very sad but just because they had C-19 does not mean that they died because of it in the same way as if a dying patient in hospital caught a Hospital Acquired Infection eg MRSA, Flu, Clostridium Difficile etc, if the patient dies it does not mean that is what killed them all it means is that they died with the disease but were expected to die anyway.

          If you take the exaggerated figures of suspected cases and call them confirmed and say death is due to C-19 if a patient has it but has not died from it then you get a ludicrously disproportionate picture of how bad the disease is.

          And that is what is happening with government announcements, not out of stupidity but out of deliberate malign intent.

          And people are believing it.

          The government has used that lie to remove individual freedoms and rights, they have destroyed the economy and imposed massive debt (transferred wealth) and they were able to do it because they were able the scare the wits out of gullible people with terrifying fake predictions.

          I don’t blame anyone for believing the lies but those that defend them are a considerable menace not just to society but to themselves.

        • SA

          You will always get these discrepancies in data and also some ‘noise’ and it depends on the sources of the data. But that is why it is important to look at trends not just single day numbers. I

          • Pb

            SA I am using weekly figures from the ONS you are using the fake government daily numbers to deliberately distort the real picture.

            I am using real numbers from past years to show actual trends you are using crackpot predictions designed to scare

            I have reproduced any discrepancies I have produced actual numbers and depicted trends faithfully, you dismis those as noise because they don’t fit with your panic status

            n 2015 the spike began week 14
            In 2016 the spike began week 12
            In 2017 the spike began week 15
            In 2018 the spike began week 9 and another week 13
            In 1019 a small spike began week 13 and another 16
            In 2020 a spike began week 12

            SA said “We know that more people die in the winter of respiratory tract infection and that this places pressure on the NHS every year. This usually eases of and by this time of the year the mortality rate drops by the end of March”

            This is absolutely untrue, complete and utter rubbish

  • michael norton

    Dominic Raab is the nominated person to take over from Boris Johnson, yet Mr.Raab has already been caught not telling the truth to parliament over Anne Sacoolas.

    “Dunn family lawyer claims text message shows Mr Raab misled Parliament!

  • Arby

    [ MOD: Caught in spam-filter ]

    There’s lots wrong with Craig’s ideas here, but he’s entitled to have them. I, it seems, am not. The last time I attempted to post something here (revealing that I do ‘not’ believe that the pandemic is real), I was flagged as a conspiracy theorist and directed to some horrible page where the answer to the simple question I asked of Craig was absolutely not there. Such fakery. Call those who you disagree with names and then ignore them eh? Okay.

    • Pb

      Correction: worldometers 47,806 is the cumulative total up to 5th April

      Week 14 (ending 5th April) number of cases was 28,284 (wolrdometers)

      April 5: 5,903
      April 4: 3,735
      April 3: 4,450
      April 2: 4,244
      April 1: 4,324
      Mar 31: 3,009
      Mar 30: 2,619

      Total: 28,284

    • SA

      CORONAVIRUS 131 121 108 143 129 70
      SARS-CoV-2 CORONAVIRUS (Covid-19) 25 202 908 4502 13146 24750
      I take some of what I said back, although it is true to some extent because these are the figures from the document you linked to. The figures you quote are for Coronavirus (NOS) and the lower ones are for Covid-19. They propably still underestimate the real numbers because of the lag in reporting and the presence of an alternative active system of monitoring.

  • N_

    Some British supermarkets are BANNING CHILDREN. That is utterly outrageous and oppressive towards single parents. Social distancing rules do NOT apply to members of the same family.

  • michael+norton

    Children are super spreaders, it would be much safer for older adults, not to come in to contact with children.
    Children do not need to purchase food.

  • SA

    You really have to understand how the reporting systems work to know the limitations of a clunky system used to monitor rare infectious disease in order to predict outbreaks and inform policy, from reporting in the middle of an epidemic. It may be statutory but that doesn’t mean it is followed. Take a look of this. It is from the states but same applies to NOIDs
    So the daily figures published by Public Health England are daily reports based on a centralised system of testing and monitoring of results and getting mortality data. The collection of data is active because this is a serious ongoing high profile situation. The data is more robust and up to date.
    But NOIDs depends on someone systematically collecting monthly data, filling in forms, and sometimes having to fill in various other demographic data, lab tests and sometimes sending actual pathological material. It is a sort of back room operation that is not top priority in a very busy situation. It works best for diseases like TB where you have dedicated clinical teams dealing with chronic disease or even rare disease like malaria. But do you really think the figures for food poisoning in this report are reliable?
    So to favour the data in NOIDs over those of other local and international organisations in an ongoing pandemic is to be extremely selective in what you want to see.

  • Bevan

    Some perspective on the mortality rate where the numbers are transparent. Both Australia and New Zealand have very similar medical systems to other western countries eg US, UK, EU etc (not counting free/insurance aspects)
    Australia is an example of the known mortality rate of Covid-19 in a non-overwhelmed western medical system.

    We were slow to shut the borders and lockdown compared to New Zealand and some cruise ships got in and skewed our numbers, but early enough that our medical system hasn’t been overwhelmed.
    (Off hand I recall we had 2000 ventilators occupied by 20 Covid-19 patients, so @ 1% of capacity a few days ago)

    April 07 Australia:
    5988 total cases reported (49 currently serious)
    49 deaths
    0.82% known mortality rate (lower if you include unreported positive cases)
    2 deaths per Million

    Almost all the deceased were over 70, although a man in his 50s and a woman aged 62 died this week. The majority were connected to cruise ships and elderly homes.

    Including our New Zealand cousins as they are very similar, but got the virus later and locked down sooner.

    April 07 New Zealand:
    1210 total cases reported (4 currently serious)
    1 death
    0.09% known mortality rate (lower if you include unreported positive cases)
    0.2 deaths per Million

    All the info sourced from here:
    I’ve no doubt the deaths by Covid-19 reported here are accurate as they are low and published daily, and able to be well scrutinized.


    April 08
    Average age of our first 50 deaths from Covid-19 in Australia:

    0 deaths were under 50
    2% were under 60,
    8% were under 70,
    4 people aged 68, 62, 61, and 50s

    The vast majority were on cruises or in aged homes.
    New Zealand’s only death was in her 70s.

    [8 deaths that only stated ’70s’, ’80s’ etc were counted as 75, 85]

  • Pb

    SA you really need to understand that the NOIDs system is PHE’s

    Hundreds of cases get reported into PHE every day, 10’s of thousands get reported out

    Where are the extra numbers coming from?

    “But NOIDs depends on someone systematically collecting monthly data”

    No it doesn’t PHE’s NOIDs Data is processed daily and reported weekly

    How is it possible for the government to report more cases out than are being reported in?

    Cumulative Total to 5th April, Cases Reported to PHE by Health Professionals: 415

    In the week ending 5th April, Cases reported to PHE by Health Professionals: 210

    Cumulative Total to 5th April, Cases reported by the government to the public 47,806

    In the week ending 5th April, cases reported by the government to the public 28,284

    You need to understand the real reporting procedure and not how you think it works;

    You need to understand the real numbers and not the fake ones that the government promulgate to scare people like you.

    That’s one hell of a lag that you have in your imaginary system.

    • SA

      OK. Just because it is statutory does not mean it is complete. It needs auditing, and I might submit a FOI request to see how this is done. But to get back to the point: this document has all the COVID-19 cases:
      Table 1: Statutory Notifications of causative agents, grouped by root organism, with totals for the current week compared to the previous five.
      SARS-CoV-2 CORONAVIRUS (Covid-19) 25 202 908 4502 13146 24750
      I know that the other document shows 210 cases but this one is clear.
      To go back to NOIDs. Have you ever filled in a NOIDs form?

    • Angela+Woolridge

      Today the Guardian and the Irish Times predicts .. quote from today’s Guardian…By August the UK is projected to have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined. My sister worked in ons in Newport and the figures don’t make sense. If ons figures are correct the UK is going to make a miraculous recovery if not we are going to be in lockdown until September.
      US 81,766
      UK 66,314
      Italy 20,300
      Spain 19,209
      France 15,058
      Germany 8,802

  • michael norton

    Four European countries have each exceeded the recorded covid-19 death toll for China
    Italy, France, Spain and U.K.

  • N_

    Where I live

    * Tesco’s employees are forcing customers to traipse up and down along every aisle in the shop, barking that “queue hopping”, by which they mean only going to aisles in which you might want to buy something, is banned;

    * I saw one guy who had tattoos on his face get shouted at by an employee to make sure he stood behind a line at the end of the till, because “I’m trying to protect this lady”, meaning the checkout worker (are men with tattoos on their faces not also deserving of protection?);

    * employees are telling customers at what exact angle to position their trolleys, namely exactly perpendicular to the conveyor belt on the till, and are grabbing hold of trolleys and forcing them to that angle if customers try to put them parallel to the conveyor belt or diagonally;

    * the local bus company is refusing to take passengers who aren’t “key workers”, even if they only want to drop their car off at a repair garage and they need the car to be able to drive to the town to buy food.

    It’s basically a field day for anyone who is a c***, anyone who enjoys bossing people around, denying them access to resources, and treating them as if they are scum.

    Local councils of course are full of c***s, and they in particular are loving all of this.

  • Pb

    SA Do you know the distinction between a Causative Agent and a Notifiable Disease?

    If not I suggest you go and find out.

    Good Luck with your FoI Requests but a word of advice, do not lecture on here about things you no nothing about until you have learned from FoI Responses or a rudimentary level of research.

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